Author: mixcspeedratings

BOYS TEAM

Now we’re gettin’ into the real races.  All the team races from the Saturday sessions will have multiple contenders and varying storylines.  The Boys Division 3 race will be among the most chaotic.

Caro enters as the favorite.  The boys took home the crown in 2018, rebuilt last year, and established themselves early in the season.  The largest buoy to their ascension has been freshman Matthew Pattullo.  Matthew has brought his marks down to that high-16/low-17 range in this late fall period.  Perhaps their most impressive team performance came in their October 3^rd Meet against the likes of St. Clair and Breckenridge.  At Wagener County Park, a course that is traditionally slightly faster than MIS, they placed 4 boys under 17:00, and their 5^th not far above the mark.  An issue with the Tigers is since that meet, their results haven’t lived up to that high standard.  Are they holding back or have they opened the door for teams such as…

Grandville Calvin Christian – who, with the addition of Luke Witvliet, find themselves with the ability to compete.  Luke’s return could bolster the Squires from hanging around the 10^th place mark to contending for the medal stand. 

Traverse City St. Francis – Having depth works in two ways.  You get cushion from bad races, only 70% of your runners need to run solid (of course it helps if they all do).  But you also get a higher chance of a runner stepping up.  The Glads had an afternoon like that at Bluejay, where Bryson Ellalasingham, Conner McIntyre, and Connor Donahue all brought SR’s.  That Bluejay performed led to TCSF besting both Ithaca and St. Louis (and a Witvlietless GCC)

Hart – who brings what St. Francis does, but through six runners.  Their shining moment came at Allendale Falcon, where Spencer Vander Zwaag and Seth Ackley (there’s more Ackleys?) brought their best efforts of the season.  Hart finished at the top there, ahead of a number of quality Division 1 teams.

St. Louis – a team that has been battling Ithaca the entire year for mid-Michigan supremacy.  Ithaca had the upper hand early, but St. Louis has put their foot down.  What’s especially impressive is that it’s not just one guy with a breakthrough, their entire top 7 has steadily improved. 

Ithaca – which has the best top-3 of any team in this field.  Ithaca will benefit from their heat being cut in half.  Their 4^th-7^th runners would likely be caught behind the bubble in a crowded 250+ athlete field, with 126 runners, they have more room to race and maneuver through the course.  When I watched their race at Allendale, the Yellowjackets were flying in the last mile.  They have four candidates to step up, with Hector Sanchez being the most likely. 

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

The individual side is much less confusing.

Hunter Jones is the clear favorite, earned through the sophomore’s many impressive performances.  He’s been a Michigan sensation ever since his 4:30/9:30 MS track marks made many take notice.  Captured a state title and has shown progress even since then.  His lone blemish this year was a loss against Nathan Walker, but in that defeat, he ran his highest rating of the season, one that’s at least 30 seconds better than anyone in Division 3 has thrown down. 

He’ll actually be matched against Carson Hersch, as we’re seeing, the top 2 runners in the same race is a rarity.  Carson, like Fraaza and Frens, slips past most Michigan XC minds.  I should mention he’s run 15:3x twice this year and finished 3^rd here last November. 

Braxton Lamey will be battling in the top team tier.  He’s a product of an Ithaca system that steadily develops (see Allen, Ransom and his Wayne State times).  He finally broke 16:00 early this year.  He hasn’t been bringing it as hard lately, but I have little doubt he’ll be outside the top 3. 

Nick McArdle will be an interesting test of the viability of these ratings.  The effects of COVID on racing schedules probably hurt teams more in areas where running isn’t as much of a concentration.  The Thumb has produced some studs through the years, but competition is a bit scarcer than in other regions of the state.  Nick has won every physical race he’s entered, and hasn’t faced much of a challenge either.

Other individuals to watch are:

Dean Reynolds – a week off blasting his way through Sharp Park.  That course is usually fair, but ran curiously fast.  If he can replicate that performance, he has the potential to find himself in the top three.

Alec Shaw – a recent commit to Coach Wilson’s up and coming squad at Rochester University. 

Tyler Mcclure – who exhibited major progress last winter as a miler, running 4:30 indoors.  Can he flash that speed in the final stretch here? 

Garrett Winter – a junior with multiple low-16 efforts and a regional victory at Portage

GIRLS TEAM

Hart is here yet again.  The Pirates have dominated the Division 3 scene for what, 3-4 years?  It hasn’t even been close.  But this year might!  It might not, either.  Lauren VanderLaan is the key, along with how low their first 4 can place.  But VanderLaan has found considerable improvement from September to October.  Her September ratings averaged 86, her October ratings 91.  As we’re taking the top half of a runner’s ratings, she ends up a bit higher than the October total, but either way, her improvement has solidified their standing. 

Grandville Calvin Christian provides the most serious test.  If I were Hart, what would scare me is their polling, err, rating error.  A girl such as Jonathah Bouwman didn’t strike my radar last year and finished All-State.  Can they find a peak that’s similarly as strong?  The Squires certainly have a number of runners that could impact their team scoring, but also place above Hart’s 5^th.

Ithaca is the other contender.  What I’ve liked about the Yellowjackets is how as the season has progressed, different girls have moved up.  First it was Grace Weburg, busting through 20:00 at Allendale.  Then it was Rachael Sierakowski the other week.  Finally, we know Abi Whitford wants another All-State honor and her recent progress shows she can reach that level again.  Can they find one more girl to bring along? 

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

For the individuals, we’re back to separate races. 

Abby VanderKooi is Abby VanderKooi.  Winning all races, aggressive from the gun, giving maximal effort, and winning FootLocker even though there’s no FootLocker this year. 

Lani Bloom is so freakin’ competitive and I know she wants another crack at Abby, which will have to wait a week. 

Rylee Tolson is the defending champ in this race.  Her and Bloom, along with Allison Chmielewski entered MIS in a pack, and Rylee was the only one left standing in a race of attrition.  This is sure to be a battle between the heart of a champion and finding revenge. 

Some other individuals to watch are:

Faith Smith – gifted with a Hall of Fame coach that’s brought about major progress in her running.  Faith finished in the 19’s much of last year and has steadily moved into the 18’s.

Kailee Sandoval – the track girl who has brought Grass Lake to levels I haven’t seen.  They withstood a COVID contact tracing challenge, and thanks to her leadership, they’re still here.

Mylie Kelly – the coach’s daughter who took it upon herself to make her name known.  I received this note from Coach Kelly over the summer:

I showed my daughter Mylie the northern and D3 rankings You did, and she was intrigued and used them as motivation. She has worked exceptionally hard since last fall, and as an 8th grader PRd in 21:14 at our PROM race. Today she cracked off an 18:45 in a little time trial we did with our kids.”

I’m glad that I can motivate, but Mylie doesn’t know that her actions give me that same motivation.

BOYS TEAM

Fremont may be the best team in the state, regardless of division.  I’d like to mention a few of their runners that may get overlooked.  Adam Ward, Ben Paige, and Joshua Zerfas have all spent time in the 16’s in every single year of their careers.  Ward and Paige were both All-State last year, and while Zerfas was not, he’s shown every indicator that he’ll be able to accomplish that feat this year. 

As with the individual side of things, the Bulldog Elite race should be an indicator of how teams will stack up.  Of the teams in the running for second, Pinckney beat out Otsego and Chelsea.  Pinckney is a bit weaker in their 3^rd – 5^th men than Chelsea and Otsego, and an 8-team field doesn’t exacerbate the weakness of the latter runners as much as a 27-team field. 

St. John’s appears to be the safest bet of any in the remaining competitors.  Their spread is minimal, at the most 0:45.  They’ve risen to the occasion in championship meets, claiming an easy victory over East Lansing at the Greater Lansing Meet. 

St. Clair was more of a shocker.  The Saints took on the big boys at Benzie’s Pete Moss and came away with a 1^st place trophy, defeating the likes of Traverse City Central, Lowell, and Traverse City West. 

Many of these teams have been dominant with very little chance of competing against one another. 

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Nathan Walker is about as clear a favorite you’ll find.  The #1 returner in the 50 Tickets to Brooklyn series, he’s done everything to hold up that honor.  Undefeated, sub-15, and has annihilated any competition.  His success will go down in Fremont lore, as his 16:11 at Branstrom Park (perhaps the toughest course in the state) will likely never be broken. 

The main focus then becomes: who finishes second?

We have a number of main candidates, and a few even beyond this group. 

Many here were in Otsego’s Bulldog Elite field and boy did they blaze.  Conor Somers, Caleb Jarema, and Colin Mulder all ran in the low 15:30’s. 

Ben Clason finished slightly behind that pack at Bulldog Elite, but a week later at the Bengals Invitational, he was able to keep with Somers.  Other than that, not too much common ground between athletes. 

Jack Pennewell has been tested this year, albeit against different runners.  He beat out the Romeo boys and Carson Nicoletti at Romeo’s MAC Red Jamboree.  In late August, St. Clair traveled north to Benzie, where Jack ran a 15:48, the 3^rd best time of the day. 

Jarema and his teammate, Gavin White, have been interchangeable for most of the year.  White doesn’t have the outstanding Bulldog Elite finish, but has three 200+ performances.

Joe Gilbert beat both Jarema and White at the Linden Regional. 

Ian Hill and Hayden Rhodea have both battled against Clason.  Rhodea bested Ben at their Pre-Regional, and Hill beat Rhodea at the OK Blue Conference Meet (but lost on a reportedly questionable DQ). 

Are you confused yet? 

GIRLS TEAM

The girls team race is much clearer and will be another dead heat between Petoskey and East Grand Rapids.  Petoskey has the clear edge up front.  Emma Squires is a state title contender, but Cambrie Smith, Noel Vanderwall, and Sarah Liederbach should all be in the upper reaches of the All-State arena.

East Grand Rapids gets it done with a polarizing combination of youth and experience.  Drew Muller has been a frontrunner capable of a top-5 finish.  Natalie Dwortz has saved their team in a few meets with clutch performances as their #5 girl.  And in the middle, you have former All-Staters in Ainsley Workman and Hannah Bodine. 

Each team has a path to winning, but one here’s a factor that could help either:

Petoskey’s 5^th-7^th girls.  Caroline Farley, Paige Harris, and CamBrie Corey have all been consistent, but also capable of an above average day.  Both Corey and Harris had that at Shepherd, while Farley stepped up at their Pre-Region. 

Workman and Bodine.  Both girls ran above their projections at the 2019 State Meet.  Can they channel that same energy again?

There are other teams, of course.  Cadillac may be vastly underrated by these numbers.  They’ve been greatly enhanced by the re-emergence of Kendall Schopieray.  Grand Rapids Christian has reloaded behind Frens with freshman such as Natalie VanOtteren.  And finally, Otsego came out of nowhere last year to finish 3^rd.  The Bulldogs have taken pack running to an extreme this year and have the ability to place 5-6 girls in front of many rivals’ 3^rd or 4^th. 

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Emma Squires had been mentioned earlier and you’d be hard-pressed to find a more well-rounded female athlete in this state.  She’s going to Purdue (as is Walker), she juggles high school and college classes, and she uses her platforms to help other runners achieve their goals in a healthy manner.  With all that on her plate, she’s found her way to the top of Division 2.  She’s had two races that give a glimpse into her condition, a 17:47 opener at Pete Moss and 17:26 at Shepherd. 

That Shepherd race featured her main contender, Meghan Ford.  Meghan is one of the few freshman girls that made the 50 Tickets list, and as the season has wore on, she’s been able to justify that inclusion.  Like Emma, she’s thrown down two outstanding performances, a 17:36 at Shepherd and a 17:47 at Greater Lansing.  The question becomes, does Ford have improvement in her as a true freshman or has Squires accumulated enough experience to pull through?

Some other names to look at are: 

Madelyn Frens – Can you believe I wrote this preview, had her listed 3^rd, went to go hit submit, and 100% forgot about her?  That’s unfortunate and it speaks to her reliability.  She’s always been at the top, so much so that it doesn’t stand out.  What does stand out is her ability to run low-18 efforts in every race lately.  She’s battled with James-Heer (Division 1), she’s beaten Muller.  And she’s got a chip on her shoulder, to avenge her day here last November. 

Mary Richmond – Another freshman.  Took her awhile to get into gear, but by October, she obtained Frankenmuth’s school record. 

Chloie Musta ­– Chloie has steadily improved throughout her time at Cadillac.  In her first two seasons, she was a contributor, but above 20:00.  At the tail end of last year, she made a leap into the low 19’s.  She’s continued that this year and has the capability of getting into the top 10. 

Lilly Evans ­– one step back, two steps forward.  As a junior, Lilly didn’t have the greatest finish to the season..  She was coming off an All-State honor as a sophomore, but barely cracked the top-50 in 2019.  She’s put herself in much better position this time around, with several sub-19:00 efforts.

BOYS TEAM

Romeo appears to be the clear favorite.  Last season, they went into their championship season as the #1 team in the State and fell flat, bested by Stoney Creek at Regionals and by quite a few teams at MIS.  This time around, the Bulldogs were able to capture the regional crown.  Their top 5 is clearly above each and every team.  The one drawback to their team would be their depth beyond Jack Wallace.  On one hand, they have very little security, but on the other hand, they’ve ran so consistently that they haven’t needed that security. 

Caledonia is the one team in the field that brings depth beyond their 5^th man.  Brett Guzman is the steady one, Donavan Mattson and Caden Dixon have both run some of their better races in October.  As a team, they faced pressure every week in that tough OK Red.  Seemingly every dual meet in that conference was a battle between low-16 types, and through that gauntlet, Caledonia came out unscathed. 

Each succeeding team will have strength up front and varying amounts of weakness on the back end.

The one team at the Division 1 level that was able to give Caledonia a test was Rockford.  In their first dual of the season, the Rams were narrowly defeated, 27 to 28.  But that result is a major what if, as Colin Graham was healthy.  If he’s available here, Rockford is in contention.  He’s not, but even in his absence, Rockford possesses one of the better 5^th men in the field. 

Salem is another team that faced an arduous schedule this year.  The KLAA also competed via duals, and the Rocks raced against the likes of Hartland, Plymouth, Brighton, Novi, and Northville.  All of those listed are state qualifying teams, and many in the argument for a top-10 place.  Again, Salem emerged victorious in all, and in the KLAA Final, Evan Wheeler ran his best race of the season. 

Highland-Milford is the toughest team to judge in the field.  They bested quality squads such as Novi and Stoney Creek at Oakland County.  The Mavericks have made it here, although it doesn’t appear they’ve raced with the same vigor in the past few meets.  At their best, Milford was around 6 sec./runner better than Stoney and 8 sec./runner better than Novi.  Romeo has been 15-18 sec./runner better than Stoney and Salem has been 12 sec./runner better than Novi. 

In order for any of these teams to pull off the upset, they’re going to have to place runners between Joseph Rinke and Owen Sharnas/Jack Wallace.  If my ratings are accurate and Freedom Hill is around 15 seconds slower than MIS, that will take 16:35 and below.  A tough task.

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Unfortunately, the race between Hobbs Kessler and Riley Hough will be split into two separate time trials.  (side note, I wonder if next year, the MHSAA would consider splitting the field in half based on time or rating).  Riley Hough has time trialed the entire year.  His 14:48 at Willow was on an unseasonably warm day in early October, similar to the predicted conditions for Friday.  Kessler has selectively picked when to go to the well, but when he has, he’s produced similarly great performances.  Head to head, Kessler holds a victory and I think that reigns supreme (yes, this doesn’t jive with the ratings). 

Other names to watch are:

Drew Seabase – under quarantine for the past two weeks.  Multiple 210+ performances this year, but due to the 14 days out, not much lately.  I wouldn’t doubt Traverse City Central’s ability to adapt though. 

Koby Fraaza – High quality, little talk.  Undefeated this year, 5^th in the State last year.

Patrick Byrnes – Big race experience and 800m speed.  Watching him at Pre-Regionals, he appeared to be battling some nagging injuries. One last race…

Carson Nicoletti – Big believer in hot streaks and he’s on fire.  Comeback wins at Regional and Macomb County, narrowly defeated Brandenburg at Pre-Regionals.  Surely satisfying after a disappointing end to his junior year.

Tristan Brandenburg/Jack Kelke/Zander Cobb – Flip a coin between any of these three. 

Charlie Frank – Exhibited much strength in the final 1000m at Lake Erie, disposing of quality Pioneer/Saline opponents.  Could be a factor when battling the surprisingly deep MIS infield grass.

GIRLS TEAM

Far and away, Traverse City Central is the queen of the girls’ field.  Due to contact tracing, their top runner, Julia Flynn, has been sidelined for a few weeks.  Even if she wasn’t able to go this weekend, the Trojans could likely absorb her loss and still emerge with a trophy.  The team battle may have been close at the beginning of the season, but the late progress of girls such as Ella Kirkwood and Madisyn McLean has pushed the gap between the TCC girls and the rest of the field.  Consistent 130+ ratings for the above two in October. 

Ann Arbor Pioneer and Saline have been trading blows all season.  Saline came out on top in the SEC Red, Pioneer at Regionals and Pre-Regionals.  Sarah Forsyth has been a recent addition to the Pioneer girls, and although she hasn’t been as quick as in past years, she’s been there before.  Saline has the strongest 6^th girl of anyone left, which gives greater odds of finding someone that can step up.  Madison Stern and Madi Wood are names that we’ve seen before, but even a freshman such as Laney Alig was able to drop down to the 19:20’s in October. 

In Coach Barnes second year at Holland West Ottawa, he’s proved that expectations need to be on the rise.  Arianne Olson is an exceptional talent, but beyond her, not much was thought of their team.  The Bonnema twins have steadily progressed throughout the year, neither settling at the 20:00 mark.  And it’s not even just summer improvement, an athlete like Kaia Denhof has shattered her season bests in the past few weeks. 

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Similar to the boys’ side, the individual competition will feature two superstars in separate races.  Julia Flynn has always been a stud, but she’s taken it to another level this fall.  Multiple sub-17 performances, and blowing away high-quality fields in each instance.  She gets there by ratcheting up the pace early and it’s highly likely that no one in the first race can hang with her.  Audrey DaDamio could hang with her, and I know that’s something she was aiming to do.  Audrey has performed well in pressure-filled races, qualifying for FootLocker in 2019.  There’s little doubt that she’s aiming to replicate that performance on Friday. 

Some other names to watch are:

Jennie Line – By now you should know that I love improvement and Jennie is a great example of that.  Mid-19’s and a staple on the lower end of Northville’s varsity squad as a sophomore, she’s been able to turn that into Northville’s leader this year.  Hasn’t been ABOVE 19:00 in 2020. 

Lauren Kiley – The girls’ version of Koby Fraaza.  Twice an All-Stater, sub-18 at Monroe Jefferson. 

Clara James-Heer and Rachel Forsyth – Freshman sensations. 

Lisa Luecke – MIXCSR hometown favorite.  She’s lost only once this year (to Kiley). 

Allie Arnsman – Another show of progress.  20:49 PR last year, one indoor mile in 6:06.  Friday, 18:33 on a legitimate Portage course.