Author: mixcspeedratings

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Last year at both the regional and state level, these projections were as predictive and accurate as ever. Through totaling up all the odds of the top-3 teams, I anticipated 193 of the qualifiers would be correct come regional day. The projections bested that by one team, 194 correct qualifiers. Similar results came from the State Finals.

A change I made last year to shore up the projections was to filter out less important meets. These conference and weekday meets are great for building the database and showing the development of athletes who may not even run at the regional level, but they often are home to a runner’s slower efforts. All the important weekend meets are included. This same methodology is present here in 2026. One thing I noticed from looking back at ’25 is that early season meets weren’t adjusted highly enough. That has changed for 2026, although I’m not sure it’ll be a huge factor as those meets aren’t weighted that heavily at this point in the season.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race in October. This will attempt to account for injuries. There are also a few cases where I know a runner won’t be running the rest of the season.

Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.

Your D1 Regional Projections…

SUMMER PROJECTIONS
MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS

REGION 1

Any Big Battles?

All year, I would’ve said this is a chalky one. Jenison, East Kentwood, and Rockford. Hudsonville, Rockford, and Grand Haven. But the Jenison girls had to throw a wrench into that. The Wildcat women are coming off their best performance of the year, an OK Green Championship where three of their girls were able to hit sub-19, then their depth was *just* enough to hold off Caledonia.

That considered, Grand Haven’s girls are still a considerable foe. They’re deep, with five girls that’ve been sub-20, nine that’ve been sub-21. At recent matchups between the two at Portage and Allendale Falcons, the Bucs were able to place five or six girls in front of Jenison’s fourth finisher. In the team standings, each of those were mightily close, just as Saturday’s results likely will be.

Boys

#3 Jenison
#14 East Kentwood
#15 Rockford

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Jenison	44	95+	95+	1st
2	East Kentwood	70		95+	2 to 3
3	Rockford	83		95+	2 to 4
4	Hudsonville	114			3 to 5
5	Grandville	131			4 to 6
6	Grand Haven	133			4 to 6
7	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	217			7 to 8
8	Grand Rapids Northview	240			7 to 9
9	Forest Hills Northern	284			9 to 11
10	Grand Rapids Union	289			8 to 12
11	Greenville	301			9 to 12
12	Muskegon Mona Shores	353			11 to 14
13	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	387			12 to 14
14	Wyoming	398			12 to 15
15	Muskegon	431			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Caden Livermore	Grandville	1.2
2	12	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	2.4
3	10	Archer VerHage	Grand Haven	3.2
4	12	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood	4.8
5	11	Caleb Conner	Jenison	7.0
6	12	Ethan Burks	Jenison	7.4
7	12	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood	7.7
8	11	Chase Sherman	Jenison	8.0
9	11	Carter Cooke	Jenison	8.6
10	11	Luke Bultman	Rockford	9.0
11	12	Jimma Atem	East Kentwood	11.9
12	12	Bradley Smies	Hudsonville	12.3
13	9	Hans Templeton	Jenison	12.8
14	12	Josiah Derksen	Rockford	13.9
15	12	Noah Watson	Rockford	16.3
16	10	Lucas Mueller	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	18.1
17	10	Sullivan Oberg	Jenison	18.2
18	11	Graham Kusmierski	Grandville	18.6
19	12	Blaiz Shyaka	East Kentwood	19.5
20	11	Declan Duch	Jenison	21.1
21	12	Calvin Kasprowicz	Hudsonville	22.4
22	12	Luke McCarty	Hudsonville	23.3
23	12	Liam Eaton	Grand Rapids Northview	23.8
24	9	Gabe Miller	Rockford	24.0
25	10	James Hollebeek	Rockford	27.0
26	11	Rhy Schneider	Rockford	27.2
27	10	Alec Bolles	Hudsonville	27.3
28	12	Charles Gavan	Rockford	27.7
29	12	Dominik Ladomato Fisher	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	28.7
30	12	Braylon Morris	East Kentwood	29.1

Girls

#6 Hudsonville
#14 Rockford
#20 Grand Haven
#26 Jenison

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Hudsonville	46	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Rockford	66	4	95+	1 to 3
3	Grand Haven	87		79	2 to 4
4	Jenison	101		21	3 to 5
5	East Kentwood	141			4 to 7
6	Grandville	162			5 to 7
7	Forest Hills Northern	165			5 to 7
8	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	223			8 to 9
9	Muskegon Mona Shores	254			8 to 11
10	Greenville	258			9 to 11
11	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	304			10 to 11
12	Grand Rapids Northview	369			12 to 13
13	Grand Rapids Union	398			12 to 13
14	Wyoming	467			14th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Grace Snyder	Hudsonville	1.4
2	12	Daisy Cox	Rockford	2.0
3	12	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville	3.6
4	12	Paige McMeans	Jenison	4.9
5	9	Brooklyn Thomasma	East Kentwood	5.1
6	10	Lexie Snyder	Hudsonville	5.4
7	9	Harper Henderson	Jenison	6.8
8	11	Keagan Mulka	Rockford	8.7
9	10	Gwyn Faber	Forest Hills Northern	8.7
10	11	Jaclyn Charbauski	Forest Hills Northern	11.0
11	10	Ariana Elzinga	Grandville	11.6
12	9	Lillien Hitsman	Grand Haven	13.6
13	10	Camryn Gervais	Grand Haven	15.5
14	10	Kinsley Newman	Grand Haven	15.9
15	12	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	18.2
16	12	Rae DeFrang	Rockford	18.4
17	11	Cecelia Wojciakowski	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	18.7
18	10	Michaela Pries	Hudsonville	19.9
19	12	Reese DeFrang	Rockford	20.5
20	12	Adeline Bagnall	Grand Haven	21.3
21	11	Morgan Sanders	Rockford	22.1
22	10	Emma Storey	Jenison	23.6
23	9	Jillian LaSorsa	Hudsonville	24.6
24	11	Eleanor Mathews	Grand Haven	25.4
25	11	Claire Watson	Rockford	25.4
26	11	Amelia Danian	Forest Hills Northern	26.1
27	12	Simone McDargh	Grandville	27.2
28	12	Laila Burress	East Kentwood	27.9
29	9	Konlee Gundy	Grand Haven	28.9
30	9	Audrey Cronkright	Jenison	29.1

REGION 2

Any Big Battles?

Haha, you think?

Region 2’s boys race is right up there with the most difficult ones of other divisions (Region 11 girls and Region 23 boys). Sure, a top-10 team might not be left out, but at least three ranked, deserving teams will be sitting home.

Traverse City West and Midland are likely safe. Each have been running at a high enough level that they can likely avoid the fray.

Every other team has an argument and the characteristics that could lead to a qualifier –

Fenton – probably have the highest ceiling of these four, shown at Jackson where all scorers came in under 16:45
Traverse City Central – traversed the tough Petoskey course in the BNC Championship, placing 2^nd ahead of a very good Petoskey squad
Saginaw Heritage – the last time the Hawks had a full lineup, they put all five guys sub-17 at Bluejay
Davison – coming off one of their better performances of the year at the SVL Championship, finishing only three points behind Flint Powers

Fenton has the highest ceiling, Davison is running the strongest of late, Traverse City Central is the most consistent, with Saginaw Heritage being a blend of all three.

Boys

#4 Traverse City West
#6 Midland
#19 Traverse City Central
#20 Saginaw Heritage
#21 Fenton
#24 Davison

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Traverse City West	50	90	95+	1 to 2
2	Midland	80	10	95+	1 to 3
3	Traverse City Central	130		29	3 to 6
4	Fenton	130		24	3 to 7
5	Saginaw Heritage	138		25	3 to 6
6	Davison	140		24	2 to 7
7	Grand Blanc	183			5 to 8
8	Midland Dow	194			6 to 8
9	Mount Pleasant	236			8 to 10
10	Alpena	257			9 to 11
11	Oxford	293			10 to 12
12	Bay City Western	328			11 to 13
13	Flushing	370			12 to 14
14	Swartz Creek	401			14 to 15
15	Lapeer	401			13 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Gavin Katic	Fenton	2.2
2	12	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	2.5
3	12	Logan Gessford	Midland	4.4
4	11	Alexander Allen	Alpena	4.7
5	11	Finn Frost-Grayson	Traverse City West	6.6
6	11	Johnathan Elsea	Mount Pleasant	7.6
7	12	Connor O’Reilly	Davison	9.7
8	10	Tommy McCormick	Grand Blanc	12.3
9	11	Elliot King	Midland	12.4
10	12	Austin Taft	Traverse City West	14.6
11	10	Jake Roberts	Midland Dow	15.4
12	10	Emmett Duggar	Traverse City West	16.6
13	10	Austin Hughes	Traverse City West	16.7
14	11	Joseph DuGuay	Traverse City Central	16.9
15	11	Pascal Rasmussen	Saginaw Heritage	17.1
16	11	Gerard Gilmour	Fenton	17.5
17	11	Alec Brown	Saginaw Heritage	17.7
18	11	Abe Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	17.8
19	12	Evan Fox	Traverse City Central	18.7
20	10	Alex Pelliccia	Midland	18.7
21	10	Matthew Lauderbaugh	Davison	18.8
22	11	Bradley Chesney	Midland	21.9
23	10	Jack Crongeyer	Grand Blanc	23.5
24	11	Jackson Shev	Traverse City Central	24.4
25	11	Abram Larsen	Fenton	24.4
26	11	Logan Szumila	Alpena	26.3
27	12	Levi Mayer	Davison	27.3
28	11	Zach Vollbrecht	Traverse City West	29.0
29	10	Jackson Thompson	Midland	29.5
30	10	Leland Barnett	Traverse City West	30.7

Girls

#19 Traverse City Central
#21 Midland Dow
#24 Traverse City West

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Traverse City Central	73	64	95+	1 to 3
2	Midland Dow	82	23	95+	1 to 3
3	Traverse City West	90	13	95+	1 to 4
4	Mount Pleasant	137		5	2 to 6
5	Oxford	139			4 to 6
6	Grand Blanc	174			5 to 7
7	Fenton	191			6 to 8
8	Bay City Western	212			6 to 10
9	Davison	240			8 to 11
10	Flushing	256			8 to 12
11	Midland	268			10 to 12
12	Lapeer	283			10 to 13
13	Alpena	315			12 to 14
14	Saginaw Heritage	344			13 to 14
15	Swartz Creek	462			15th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Emilia Garces	Midland Dow	1.3
2	12	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	1.9
3	10	Kaitlyn Berg	Midland	3.7
4	10	Grace Meyers	Bay City Western	4.1
5	10	Taryn Moore	Oxford	6.2
6	10	Cecelia Jacobson	Traverse City Central	9.2
7	11	Kelly Comfort	Traverse City Central	10.8
8	11	Kate Macfarlane	Midland Dow	11.6
9	12	Anna Sheppard	Mount Pleasant	12.4
10	11	Emily Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	12.9
11	12	Micali Teeple	Grand Blanc	13.3
12	11	Jessa Skonieczny	Mount Pleasant	13.5
13	9	Claire Gross	Traverse City Central	13.7
14	12	Bridget Raven	Traverse City West	13.9
15	11	Sienna Chapin	Oxford	13.9
16	10	Lilly Pierce	Mount Pleasant	14.6
17	10	Hannah Vogel	Midland Dow	17.0
18	9	Isabelle Kopczyk	Fenton	19.6
19	11	Livia Willing	Grand Blanc	19.9
20	9	Thia Reid	Oxford	20.1
21	10	Autumn Luick	Midland Dow	20.2
22	12	Brooklyn Wiltse	Davison	21.9
23	11	Sawyer Lynn	Saginaw Heritage	21.9
24	11	Leah Humphrey	Grand Blanc	22.7
25	10	Jadelyn Arnold	Traverse City West	25.8
26	11	Lindsay Smith	Traverse City West	25.9
27	9	Ayla Ruch	Traverse City West	28.8
28	10	Gretchen Oyer	Traverse City Central	29.1
29	12	Olivia Reding	Traverse City West	29.9
30	12	Jaclyn Suderman	Bay City Western	30.7
31	11	Lucy Bott	Fenton	31.0

REGION 3

Any Big Battles?

Whereas last fall this was a wild one, this year things appear to have been corrected. That volatility has just been shifted up into Region 2.

Boys

#5 Lowell
#11 Caledonia
#13 Kalamazoo Central

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Lowell	77	65	95+	1 to 4
2	Kalamazoo Central	93	22	95+	1 to 4
3	Caledonia	97	13	94	1 to 4
4	Holland West Ottawa	133			4 to 6
5	Zeeland West	137		9	2 to 6
6	Battle Creek Lakeview	158			4 to 7
7	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	199			6 to 10
8	Portage Northern	215			7 to 11
9	Richland Gull Lake	218			7 to 11
10	Portage Central	231			7 to 11
11	Forest Hills Central	250			7 to 13
12	Byron Center	300			10 to 14
13	Zeeland East	302			11 to 14
14	Mattawan	304			11 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	1.6
2	12	Marshall Huhn	Lowell	2.0
3	11	Sean Thompson	Caledonia	4.7
4	10	Tanner Smith	Zeeland West	4.7
5	12	Colin Stawasz	Lowell	7.3
6	11	Marcus Essling	Portage Central	7.5
7	10	Jackson Pant	Richland Gull Lake	8.6
8	11	Karson Lewis	Battle Creek Lakeview	9.3
9	12	Cody Bromley	Lowell	9.6
10	9	Cody Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	10.0
11	11	Elijah Demlow	Battle Creek Lakeview	11.1
12	10	Bryson Hassevoort	Zeeland West	11.9
13	10	Maxwell Post	Holland West Ottawa	13.7
14	12	Brady Winther-MacInnis	Kalamazoo Central	15.7
15	11	Adam Shorb	Portage Northern	17.3
16	11	Bentley Nichols	Caledonia	18.0
17	11	Bennett Snapper	Caledonia	18.3
18	11	Colby Bartells	Kalamazoo Central	19.9
19	12	Boston Wilkinson	Holland West Ottawa	21.5
20	12	Nate Davis	Zeeland East	21.7
21	11	Cole Mckenna	Caledonia	22.4
22	12	Jontee Willhite	Kalamazoo Central	23.7
23	11	Jackson Duval	Battle Creek Lakeview	24.0
24	10	Avi Elabed	Lowell	25.8
25	12	Tristan Zhang	Portage Central	26.3
26	9	Lucan Walker	Portage Northern	28.2
27	11	Zachary Newman	Byron Center	29.9
28	11	Brody Mulder	Holland West Ottawa	31.6
29	11	Henry Yoder	Forest Hills Central	32.3
30	9	Silas Pinney	Holland West Ottawa	33.0

Girls

#5 Portage Central
#16 Holland West Ottawa
#27 Richland Gull Lake

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Portage Central	50	95+	95+	1st
2	Holland West Ottawa	90		95+	2 to 4
3	Richland Gull Lake	116		92	2 to 6
4	Zeeland West	136		8	3 to 6
5	Caledonia	144			4 to 7
6	Zeeland East	147			3 to 7
7	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	180			5 to 8
8	Byron Center	230			7 to 10
9	Portage Northern	241			7 to 11
10	Battle Creek Lakeview	262			8 to 12
11	Lowell	268			8 to 12
12	Forest Hills Central	287			10 to 12
13	Mattawan	353			13th
14	Kalamazoo Central	422			14th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East	1.0
2	11	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern	2.3
3	11	Avery Scott	Portage Central	3.2
4	12	Annie Isom	Richland Gull Lake	5.6
5	12	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	5.9
6	11	Gianna Burgos	Battle Creek Lakeview	7.8
7	12	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	8.0
8	10	Tessa Albrecht	Zeeland West	10.1
9	12	Ella Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	10.7
10	9	Valentina Lopez-Bringas	Portage Central	10.8
11	11	Gracie Carlisle	Portage Central	11.1
12	10	Emma Putnam	Lowell	12.0
13	12	Akaela Daman	Caledonia	12.1
14	11	Julia Welc	Portage Central	12.4
15	11	Claire Mouw	Portage Central	15.9
16	10	Londyn Schmidt	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	17.6
17	11	Alivia Schnakenberg	Zeeland East	18.0
18	12	Lyla Dowling	Holland West Ottawa	18.5
19	10	Maddie Guy	Portage Central	20.7
20	9	Avali Hoffer	Zeeland West	20.8
21	9	Lara Souza	Portage Central	21.2
22	11	Mary Dolbow	Holland West Ottawa	21.5
23	10	Kendall Van Ryn	Caledonia	25.3
24	11	Lilly Harthorn	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	26.6
25	11	Caralyn Elkins	Zeeland West	29.3
26	11	Lacy Smith	Richland Gull Lake	29.7
27	11	Quinn Middleton	Byron Center	31.0
28	10	Kalynn Young	Richland Gull Lake	32.2
29	12	Kaila Keeler	Zeeland West	32.4
30	9	Paige VanderBie	Holland West Ottawa	32.9

REGION 4

Any Big Battles?

The battle of either of the projected 4^th place teams (Howell boys, Mason girls) springing a surprise visit to MIS. Each have lower odds, 15-20%, though neither are insurmountable. Howell has the benefit of having Jack MacGregor, a certified frontrunner and state contender, needing to only score four. With Brighton and Grand Ledge having strength in numbers up front, having less variability in terms of runners further back in the race can be an advantage. The Highlanders are also coming off one of their better races of the season, a KLAA Championship that saw Howell place 5^th in that tough conference.

The last major, out-of-conference meet that saw Mason at full strength was in early October. The Bulldogs traveled down to Otsego’s Bulldog Invite and saw their top-five run sub-20 on that quick course. The speed is definitely there and they’ll have some avenging to do too, as Mason was 5 places back of Howell at Greater Lansing (though missing two of their typical top-five).

Boys

#2 Brighton
#9 Grand Ledge
#18 Dexter

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Brighton	43	95+	95+	1st
2	Grand Ledge	71		95+	2 to 3
3	Dexter	91		78	2 to 5
4	Howell	110		15	3 to 5
5	East Lansing	115		7	3 to 5
6	Holt	199			6 to 10
7	South Lyon East	214			6 to 10
8	Okemos	215			6 to 10
9	South Lyon	222			6 to 10
10	Mason	226			6 to 10
11	Lansing Waverly	297			11th
12	Lansing Everett	370			12 to 13
13	Lansing Eastern	401			12 to 13

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jack MacGregor	Howell	1.2
2	11	Kilian Boulware-Lopez	East Lansing	4.7
3	10	Grant Kulesza	Brighton	5.9
4	12	Coen Hill	Dexter	6.3
5	11	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge	7.1
6	10	Tucker Asman	Brighton	7.1
7	10	Josh Keillor-Beale	Brighton	7.6
8	11	Nikhil Ball	South Lyon East	8.1
9	12	Caelan Marsh	Grand Ledge	8.3
10	12	Nick Martens	Dexter	8.9
11	11	Rem Piper	Holt	9.8
12	11	Roarke MacArthur	Brighton	10.6
13	11	Brendan Williams	Brighton	12.1
14	12	Nolan Lounds	Grand Ledge	13.5
15	11	Alex Weller	Howell	17.1
16	12	Simon Shutt	Okemos	19.4
17	12	Noah Thelen	Grand Ledge	20.5
18	11	Toby Regulinski	East Lansing	20.6
19	11	Grayson Diadiun	Howell	23.7
20	12	Hudson McCleskey	Dexter	24.2
21	12	Owen Collin	Brighton	26.0
22	11	Shane Cory	Brighton	26.3
23	9	Brayden Kasmar	Mason	26.4
24	12	Dayton VanderMoere	Grand Ledge	27.3
25	12	Mychael Johnson	East Lansing	27.9
26	9	Ian Schmidt	Grand Ledge	28.7
27	12	Micah Couser	Grand Ledge	29.3
28	11	Landon Seiloff	Lansing Waverly	29.8
29	11	Easton Howell	Dexter	31.1
30	11	Alejandro Nagy	East Lansing	31.1

Girls

#12 Dexter
#13 Brighton
#17 Howell
#22 Mason
#25 Grand Ledge

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Brighton	66	55	95+	1 to 3
2	Dexter	72	20	95+	1 to 4
3	Howell	79	25	85	1 to 5
4	Mason	107		17	2 to 6
5	Grand Ledge	112			3 to 6
6	East Lansing	147			5 to 8
7	Okemos	155			5 to 8
8	South Lyon East	172			6 to 8
9	Holt	251			9 to 10
10	South Lyon	251			9 to 10
11	Lansing Waverly	363			11 to 12
12	Lansing Eastern	386			11 to 12
13	Lansing Everett	414			13th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Rachel Smith	Okemos	1.1
2	12	Abigail Dobry	Dexter	3.6
3	11	Ella Lorenz	Brighton	5.4
4	10	Ava Montero	Grand Ledge	5.4
5	12	Kodie Snyder	Dexter	5.4
6	10	Reagan Mason	Howell	6.2
7	12	Ashley Lubowicki	Brighton	9.6
8	12	Morgan Allen	Mason	11.9
9	12	Anna Halliday	Howell	12.0
10	9	Maddie Newman	South Lyon East	12.4
11	10	Reese Cournoyer	Brighton	12.9
12	12	Vivian Hoffman	Dexter	13.3
13	10	Brooke Wallace	Howell	15.1
14	10	Olive DiMassa	Howell	15.7
15	11	Ruby Petee	Mason	16.3
16	11	Emily Barrie	East Lansing	19.0
17	9	Reilly Klas	Brighton	20.5
18	9	Maddie Flynn	Grand Ledge	22.6
19	11	Mya Bower	Okemos	22.9
20	11	Layla Blumberg	Dexter	22.9
21	9	Addison Farero	Mason	23.0
22	9	Mary Peterson	Brighton	23.4
23	10	Kinsley Lounds	Grand Ledge	23.5
24	9	Marissa LaMarra	Brighton	24.5
25	10	Paige Thelen	Grand Ledge	25.4
26	9	Alaina Ernst	Holt	27.0
27	11	Kaila Cravotta	East Lansing	27.1
28	12	Claire Porinsky	South Lyon East	27.9
29	11	Jorga Wooledge	Mason	28.1
30	12	Bailey Konuszewski	Dexter	29.0

REGION 5

Any Big Battles?

Ehh, this will likely be a chalky one. Ann Arbor Pioneer and Saline have far and away been the class of Region 5 for years, now Brownstown Woodhaven is doing everything in their power to join them.

Boys

#8 Saline
#25 Ann Arbor Pioneer

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Saline	45	95+	95+	1st
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	81		95+	2 to 3
3	Brownstown Woodhaven	104		93	2 to 5
4	Wyandotte Roosevelt	137			3 to 7
5	Allen Park	145			4 to 8
6	Dearborn Fordson	148			4 to 8
7	Gibraltar Carlson	154			4 to 8
8	Temperance Bedford	172			6 to 8
9	Monroe	245			9th
10	Ypsilanti Lincoln	322			10 to 13
11	Detroit Cass Tech	332			10 to 13
12	Southgate Anderson	337			10 to 13
13	Belleville	350			10 to 13
14	Lincoln Park	414			14th
15	Detroit Martin Luther King	481			15th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.3
2	12	Jacob Szalay	Saline	1.7
3	11	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson	3.3
4	11	Wes Rogan	Saline	5.3
5	11	Jack Dunwoody	Gibraltar Carlson	5.4
6	10	Wyatt DelValle	Gibraltar Carlson	6.8
7	12	Vincent Jones	Brownstown Woodhaven	9.5
8	11	Zachary Greene	Wyandotte Roosevelt	10.7
9	10	Jaden Hill	Allen Park	10.9
10	10	Zawadi Mwathi	Brownstown Woodhaven	11.9
11	12	Jack Klein	Saline	12.6
12	10	Will Sollenberger	Saline	13.2
13	12	Max Carne	Ann Arbor Pioneer	13.5
14	12	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt	13.5
15	12	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	14.5
16	12	Ryan Rummel	Saline	16.3
17	11	Gavin Rohr	Monroe	17.9
18	12	Jacob Cole	Saline	18.2
19	11	Asher Sikma	Ann Arbor Pioneer	18.4
20	12	Mohamed Aljahmi	Dearborn Fordson	18.9
21	9	Reed Nadig	Saline	22.3
22	12	Blake Lancaster	Ann Arbor Pioneer	23.6
23	12	Cooper Ankeney	Ann Arbor Pioneer	25.3
24	9	Gavin Herrera-Hammerle	Brownstown Woodhaven	26.0
25	10	Parker Wisniewski	Southgate Anderson	26.4
26	12	Deacon Ashmore	Allen Park	26.7
27	12	Allen Decaminada	Wyandotte Roosevelt	27.4
28	12	Logan Thomas	Temperance Bedford	28.3
29	11	Mousa Ghaleb	Dearborn Fordson	28.8
30	11	Ivan Yepez	Allen Park	29.2

Girls

#1 Ann Arbor Pioneer
#10 Brownstown Woodhaven
#15 Saline

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	22	95+	95+	1st
2	Brownstown Woodhaven	62		95+	2 to 3
3	Saline	64		95+	2 to 3
4	Temperance Bedford	125			4 to 5
5	Gibraltar Carlson	132			4 to 5
6	Wyandotte Roosevelt	217			6 to 8
7	Allen Park	220			6 to 9
8	Dearborn Fordson	224			6 to 9
9	Southgate Anderson	256			8 to 11
10	Ypsilanti Lincoln	258			8 to 11
11	Monroe	271			9 to 11
12	Belleville	366			12 to 13
13	Detroit Cass Tech	394			12 to 13
14	Detroit Martin Luther King	441			14 to 15
15	Lincoln Park	443			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	10	Keira Von Blon	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.2
3	11	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.8
4	12	Katarina Munson	Saline	4.9
5	11	Charley McKay	Brownstown Woodhaven	5.2
6	11	Savannah Staton	Saline	5.7
7	12	Lizzie Wernimont	Ann Arbor Pioneer	7.9
8	12	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer	8.3
9	11	Adelynn Turck	Saline	8.7
10	10	Audrey Grosteffon	Temperance Bedford	9.7
11	11	Annabelle Chan	Brownstown Woodhaven	11.6
12	10	Eliza Selcer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	12.1
13	12	Mia Lopez	Ann Arbor Pioneer	13.2
14	11	Alexis Kmiecik	Brownstown Woodhaven	14.0
15	11	Jaelynn Greene	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.4
16	12	Hope Noal	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.8
17	10	Emma Puscas	Wyandotte Roosevelt	18.7
18	11	Giada Fioritto	Gibraltar Carlson	19.0
19	10	Madison Slade	Gibraltar Carlson	20.3
20	12	Sophia Johnson	Temperance Bedford	20.4
21	11	Joy Schuck	Southgate Anderson	21.3
22	10	Lauren Tomaszewski	Saline	23.2
23	10	Maliah McKibben	Temperance Bedford	25.3
24	12	Sophie Roth	Saline	25.7
25	12	Iva Ravindra	Temperance Bedford	27.3
26	9	Noor Charafeddine	Dearborn Fordson	28.3
27	11	Michelle Jiang	Saline	28.7
28	10	Ruby Giddings	Saline	28.9
29	10	Ada Cain	Gibraltar Carlson	29.2
30	9	Ava Brancheau	Southgate Anderson	30.5

REGION 6

Any Big Battles?

Ann Arbor Skyline should soar over the field, Salem’s teams are solid as well, their girls being at the same level as Grosse Pointe South, seemingly a floor above the rest of the field. One race does give some intrigue, a potential clash between the Plymouth and Detroit U-D Jesuit boys.

Jesuit has been a bit of a surprise this year, headed by the transformative senior season from Emmet Gardella. The Cubs have also had Callan Fleming and Andrew Slosar step up and run in the 16’s. Jesuit placed 3^rd in the CHSL Bishop Championship and 5^th in Wayne County. The winner of that Wayne County Championship was Plymouth. The Wildcats have approached this season in a similar manner to many, running under the radar for the longest time, but being a presence at season’s end. The County meet saw Plymouth have the best depth in the field, increasing their lead as the race wore on. Jesuit was however missing Justin Mkrtumian, who has been their #2 guy for much of the year. With him added in, Jesuit moves closer in the standings, still an underdog, but in range of an upset. On the other hand, Plymouth has been here before, many times.

Boys

#1 Ann Arbor Skyline
#10 Salem

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Ann Arbor Skyline	27	95+	95+	1st
2	Salem	52		95+	2nd
3	Plymouth	101		84	3 to 4
4	Detroit U-D Jesuit	127		14	3 to 5
5	Livonia Churchill	141			4 to 5
6	Ann Arbor Huron	190			6 to 8
7	Canton	191			6 to 7
8	Dearborn	237			8 to 10
9	Grosse Pointe South	237			7 to 10
10	Livonia Franklin	268			8 to 10
11	Detroit Renaissance	329			11 to 12
12	Westland John Glenn	329			11 to 12
13	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	405			13 to 14
14	Wayne Memorial	414			13 to 15
15	Harper Woods	465			14 to 16
16	Detroit Mumford	500			15 to 16

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Austin Mercado	Salem	1.3
2	11	Roman Stilwell	Ann Arbor Skyline	2.6
3	12	Jack Hanner	Salem	4.7
4	11	Martin Gehrke	Ann Arbor Skyline	5.5
5	11	Oskar MacArthur	Ann Arbor Skyline	6.6
6	10	Hudson Doll	Ann Arbor Skyline	7.2
7	12	Emmet Gardella	Detroit U-D Jesuit	7.5
8	12	Samuel Batt	Salem	8.2
9	12	Matthew Guikema	Ann Arbor Skyline	10.0
10	9	Dane Jadallah	Plymouth	11.2
11	12	Garrett Comer	Ann Arbor Skyline	11.5
12	10	Troy Verhelle	Livonia Churchill	12.0
13	10	Davin MacDonald	Ann Arbor Skyline	12.2
14	12	Rami Bazzi	Dearborn	15.0
15	11	Aarav Kalantry	Ann Arbor Huron	15.7
16	12	Dylan Kosik	Plymouth	20.1
17	11	Landen Martell	Plymouth	20.3
18	9	Josh Lehn	Salem	20.4
19	12	Tyler Bjorklund	Livonia Churchill	20.5
20	12	Kamden O’Donnell	Canton	21.2
21	12	Luke Allen	Salem	22.1
22	10	Jack Caveney	Plymouth	24.1
23	10	Theo Kim	Salem	25.0
24	11	Conrad Marra	Ann Arbor Huron	25.3
25	12	Adam Burns	Salem	25.8
26	10	Callan Fleming	Detroit U-D Jesuit	27.4
27	11	Andrew Slosar	Detroit U-D Jesuit	28.1
28	12	Will Fust	Livonia Churchill	28.1
29	12	Caleb Thomason-Redus	Grosse Pointe South	28.8
30	12	Leonardo Reyes	Plymouth	29.5

Girls

#3 Ann Arbor Skyline

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Ann Arbor Skyline	17	95+	95+	1st
2	Grosse Pointe South	85		95+	2 to 3
3	Salem	88		95+	2 to 3
4	Plymouth	125			4 to 7
5	Ann Arbor Huron	131			4 to 7
6	Canton	146			4 to 7
7	Livonia Churchill	147			4 to 7
8	Livonia Franklin	233			8 to 9
9	Dearborn	265			8 to 10
10	Detroit Renaissance	297			9 to 10
11	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	333			11 to 12
12	Westland John Glenn	365			11 to 12
13	Harper Woods	414			13th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Isla Tharp	Ann Arbor Skyline	1.3
2	12	Becca Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	2.9
3	11	Lila Edison	Ann Arbor Skyline	3.6
4	11	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline	4.5
5	10	Eleanor Pilsner	Grosse Pointe South	4.6
6	12	Irie Scrase	Ann Arbor Skyline	5.0
7	10	Blix Finn	Ann Arbor Skyline	7.7
8	9	Madeline MacLellan	Salem	9.8
9	11	Mira Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	9.9
10	12	Khloe Lee	Plymouth	10.3
11	11	Maddie Vargo	Livonia Churchill	12.3
12	11	Samantha Michalski	Salem	12.3
13	11	Sadie Bohnsack	Ann Arbor Huron	14.0
14	9	Emma Gritter	Ann Arbor Skyline	15.6
15	11	Clare Davidson	Canton	15.9
16	12	Morgan Costello	Grosse Pointe South	16.3
17	9	Emma Ford	Grosse Pointe South	17.1
18	10	Abigail Avram	Ann Arbor Huron	18.7
19	12	Samantha Bartell	Salem	20.2
20	11	Chloe Cratsenburg	Plymouth	20.8
21	12	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	22.5
22	9	Hannah Thomassen	Canton	23.4
23	12	Addie Jones	Salem	24.2
24	12	Olivia Colt	Grosse Pointe South	25.4
25	12	Julie Schuessler	Livonia Churchill	27.5
26	11	Joelle Saad	Dearborn	28.0
27	9	Ivy Surma	Grosse Pointe South	29.0
28	12	Isabella Rushlow	Plymouth	29.6
29	11	Ria White	Grosse Pointe South	29.9
30	9	Nora Garwood	Salem	31.4

REGION 7

Any Big Battles?

As I wrote in the Mid-Season Projections, Berkley has been a team that’s been a revelation here in 2026. Paige Rohda has been a huge factor, though their team growth has come through the progression of their pack. The Bears moved up a division in to the OAA White and held their own, finishing 2^nd by a single point at the league final. Stoney Creek, who won the league, isn’t in Region 7, but a former league member will be present – Farmington.

Both teams have battled and navigated absences all fall, so it’s even tough to ascertain what may happen based on their one common competition at Oakland County. The top runners from each squad have been mega-consistent the entire fall, points will be won/lost in the back half of the race. Both teams have reason for optimism, Farmington with Hannah Miller’s return and Berkley with Cailey Levine recently running a massive PR. The projections like Berkley here with a little less variability.

Boys

#7 Northville
#17 Detroit Catholic Central

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Northville	46	87	95+	1 to 2
2	Detroit Catholic Central	62	13	95+	1 to 3
3	Novi	92		89	2 to 4
4	Livonia Stevenson	116		12	3 to 5
5	Royal Oak	157			4 to 5
6	Berkley	203			6 to 7
7	West Bloomfield	235			6 to 11
8	Bloomfield Hills	253			7 to 11
9	North Farmington	261			7 to 11
10	Birmingham Seaholm	264			7 to 11
11	Farmington	268			7 to 11
12	Oak Park	335			12 to 15
13	Walled Lake Western	344			12 to 15
14	Beverly Hills Groves	357			12 to 16
15	Brother Rice	388			12 to 16
16	Ferndale	395			13 to 16
17	Walled Lake Central	522			17th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brandon Cloud	Northville	1.0
2	12	Devin Lau	Farmington	3.0
3	10	Luke Kramer	Detroit Catholic Central	4.7
4	11	Brady Glon	Detroit Catholic Central	5.0
5	11	Lucas Brumo	Livonia Stevenson	5.5
6	12	Trevor Baptist	Novi	5.6
7	9	Braden Millar	Northville	8.6
8	11	Manny Coates	Northville	10.4
9	9	Will Buckley	Detroit Catholic Central	11.3
10	12	Beckett Sipes	Royal Oak	11.5
11	9	Aristides Kyritses	Northville	12.8
12	12	Keats Rosenbrock	Royal Oak	13.8
13	10	George Mockeridge	Birmingham Seaholm	14.0
14	9	Ryan Porenta	Detroit Catholic Central	15.6
15	10	Colt Ludlam	Livonia Stevenson	15.6
16	11	Owen Lawrence	Bloomfield Hills	17.5
17	12	Tyler Hennessey	Berkley	18.1
18	9	Mateo Lindenmeyer	Northville	18.3
19	10	Ashton Kashat	Northville	18.9
20	11	John McCann	Novi	19.3
21	12	Zachary Brown	Novi	23.7
22	12	Zachary Mitchell	Novi	25.6
23	11	Aarush Vijay	Novi	26.7
24	11	Branden Hairston	Novi	27.0
25	12	Reuben Swafford	North Farmington	27.2
26	9	Gates Emmett	Birmingham Seaholm	28.3
27	12	Jack Lewis	Northville	28.4
28	10	Kaden Boura	Ferndale	30.3
29	12	Musa Kay	West Bloomfield	30.4
30	11	Oliver Borek	Detroit Catholic Central	30.8

Girls

#2 Northville
#8 Novi

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Northville	31	95+	95+	1st
2	Novi	68		95+	2nd
3	Berkley	121		80	3 to 4
4	Farmington	135		20	3 to 5
5	Bloomfield Hills	158			4 to 7
6	Royal Oak	174			5 to 7
7	Birmingham Seaholm	181			5 to 7
8	Livonia Stevenson	230			8 to 11
9	Walled Lake Central	240			8 to 11
10	Beverly Hills Groves	245			8 to 11
11	Oak Park	267			8 to 12
12	Walled Lake Western	296			10 to 13
13	North Farmington	355			12 to 14
14	West Bloomfield	376			13 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Alexandra Scappaticci	Northville	1.1
2	12	Lucia Lachapelle	Northville	2.3
3	11	Paige Rohda	Berkley	3.5
4	10	Brynn Somers	Northville	4.2
5	12	Anyla Robinson	Oak Park	5.7
6	10	Claire Lawrence	Bloomfield Hills	6.2
7	11	Alexandra Green	Birmingham Seaholm	6.4
8	12	Katelynn Egli	Novi	8.3
9	12	Anna Macdonald	Royal Oak	10.2
10	9	Lily Szukaitis	Northville	11.7
11	11	Claire Galas	Novi	12.2
12	10	Ella German	Novi	12.2
13	12	Olivia Jenney	Bloomfield Hills	14.0
14	12	Katelyn Parrish	Farmington	14.9
15	10	Ella Corby	Northville	15.0
16	12	Emma Engalan	Northville	15.7
17	10	Sora Saito	Novi	15.8
18	11	Isabella Glibota	Berkley	19.0
19	11	Grace Thomas	Farmington	20.5
20	10	Jessica Philip	Novi	20.8
21	9	Hanna Drouillard	Walled Lake Central	20.8
22	10	Lydia DelPiero Clayton	Farmington	22.9
23	11	Ana Lucia Reynoso	Berkley	23.5
24	11	Mia Maccani	Royal Oak	24.2
25	9	Julia Riemer	Northville	26.7
26	12	Renata Arreola-Olvera	Novi	26.9
27	10	Khaya Pierson	Livonia Stevenson	27.2
28	9	Agata Raczko	Novi	28.2
29	12	Olivia Dixon	Birmingham Seaholm	31.0
30	11	Riley Veitch	Farmington	31.9

REGION 8

Any Big Battles?

It’s hard to fathom that Utica, Hartland, and White Lake Lakeland are all converging upon Clintonwood Park for a regional matchup. After all, in 2025, Utica was out east at Goodells, Lakeland was down south at Royal Oak, and Hartland took a trek and a half up to Mt. Pleasant. But a year has changed and a re-working of the metro Detroit regions has occurred, these three teams running at fairly equal levels, having legitimate chances at a trophy.

The race should be immediately apparent up front, these three squads comprising a great majority of the top of the leaderboard here. Lakeland goes seven deep, running at a consistent level all year, hardly a blowup from an Eagle in a big spot. Utica has a potential winner in Claire Cubitt, one girl that can stay out of the fray that’ll likely exist in the 19-min. range. Hartland has come on strong over this past week, buoyed by the presence of Layla Foguth (she hadn’t raced at an invite since early September), whose 9^th place KLAA finish helped the Eagles place 3^rd in their highly competitive conference.

Boys

#16 Highland-Milford
#26 Troy
#27 White Lake Lakeland

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Highland-Milford	48	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Troy	68	3	95+	1 to 3
3	White Lake Lakeland	77		94	2 to 4
4	Clarkston	110		6	3 to 6
5	Hartland	135			4 to 6
6	Utica	159			5 to 7
7	Troy Athens	168			4 to 8
8	Walled Lake Northern	198			6 to 8
9	Waterford Kettering	291			9 to 11
10	Warren DeLaSalle	292			9 to 11
11	Sterling Heights Stevenson	303			9 to 12
12	Utica Ford	335			11 to 13
13	Warren Woods Tower	384			12 to 13
14	Warren Mott	442			14th
15	Waterford Mott	462			15th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Cooper McNaughton	Clarkston	1.4
2	10	Aiden Doggett	Highland-Milford	3.3
3	11	Todd Tobin Jr	Highland-Milford	3.8
4	10	Lucas Naspinsky	White Lake Lakeland	4.2
5	11	Asa Konwinski	Troy	6.7
6	12	Colin Blachford	Troy Athens	7.1
7	9	Jack Klein	White Lake Lakeland	7.3
8	12	Henry Witt	Troy	8.8
9	12	Rowan DeHority	Highland-Milford	10.2
10	11	Owen Nelms	White Lake Lakeland	11.1
11	12	Vern Clyne	Clarkston	11.4
12	12	Jack Witt	Troy	12.0
13	9	Austin Zielinski	Highland-Milford	13.8
14	11	Asher Lawson	Walled Lake Northern	14.0
15	11	Joe Coleman	Hartland	15.1
16	12	Miles Foster	Clarkston	18.2
17	12	Jacob Blakemore	Highland-Milford	19.0
18	9	Gabriel Kalinowski	Highland-Milford	21.4
19	12	Tanner Wertz	Highland-Milford	21.7
20	9	Owen Lince	White Lake Lakeland	21.8
21	11	Charles Zhang	Troy	21.9
22	12	Andrew Svoboda	Troy	23.2
23	12	Jaron Osanaiye	Sterling Heights Stevenson	24.2
24	11	Lincoln Gray	Hartland	26.2
25	10	Aarush Arora	Troy	26.5
26	11	Jacob Solomon	Utica	27.3
27	12	Lucas Keilen	Hartland	27.4
28	11	Hunter Orshall	Utica	28.8
29	11	Terry Tankersley	Utica	29.6
30	11	Eddie Nolan	Troy Athens	32.0

Girls

#9 Hartland
#11 White Lake Lakeland
#18 Utica

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Hartland	56	54	95+	1 to 3
2	White Lake Lakeland	59	33	95+	1 to 3
3	Utica	68	13	95+	1 to 4
4	Clarkston	106			3 to 5
5	Highland-Milford	152			5 to 7
6	Walled Lake Northern	154			5 to 7
7	Troy	180			6 to 7
8	Waterford Kettering	233			8 to 9
9	Sterling Heights Stevenson	263			8 to 11
10	Troy Athens	278			8 to 12
11	Warren Mott	288			9 to 12
12	Utica Ford	325			10 to 13
13	Warren Woods Tower	369			12 to 13
14	Waterford Mott	445			14 to 15
15	Warren Cousino	467			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Claire Cubitt	Utica	1.7
2	12	Avery DeGrendel	Clarkston	3.0
3	12	Morgan Scally	White Lake Lakeland	3.6
4	10	Ruby Hoffmann	Hartland	6.1
5	12	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	6.8
6	12	Ava Goodman	Hartland	7.0
7	11	Kylie Brown	Utica	8.4
8	10	Lila Miller	Hartland	8.4
9	12	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland	11.4
10	10	Clare O’Reilly	Troy Athens	11.7
11	10	Layla Foguth	Hartland	12.2
12	11	Codianne Palczewski	Utica	12.4
13	12	Genevieve Connolly	White Lake Lakeland	12.7
14	11	Hailey Lan	Troy	12.9
15	12	Emma Brown	Utica	14.1
16	12	Isabelle Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	14.8
17	10	Kylie Rennie	White Lake Lakeland	16.7
18	12	Addison Brigham	Clarkston	18.7
19	12	Allie Gallagher	Walled Lake Northern	20.6
20	11	Gracie Grzymkowski	White Lake Lakeland	20.7
21	11	Amelia Garvin	Clarkston	22.3
22	12	Jenna Sievert	White Lake Lakeland	22.6
23	10	Gabrielle Desgrange	Hartland	24.1
24	12	Claire Pikal	Waterford Kettering	25.3
25	9	Ava Montante	Walled Lake Northern	26.8
26	10	Elena Remtema	Highland-Milford	28.5
27	9	Jordan Middleton	Highland-Milford	28.6
28	10	Elizabeth Mann	Sterling Heights Stevenson	28.7
29	10	Laela D’John	Utica	31.3
30	12	Lauren Giroux	Troy	31.8

REGION 9

Any Big Battles?

Just as the case over in Region 8, a combination of teams that we wouldn’t normally see, at least of recent. Of late, the Rochester schools have been over in Clarkston, but with the metro Detroit reshuffling, they’re now out east at Columbus County Park. The Rochester girls would likely be a heavy underdog over at Region 8, the Falcons have slightly better odds over here in 9. They’re benefitting from the return of Aryana Givans, who came back for the first time in over a month at the OAA Red Championship, aiding Rochester in a runner-up finish.

The Falcons will have to go through Macomb Dakota, a traditional power that’s been a consistent qualifier out of Eastside regions for the past few years. The Cougars have all the components, frontrunners such as Gabriella Mercier and Grace Mathers and depth, with an entire varsity outfit capable of crossing under 21:00.

The projections see the race playing out with Dakota spread through the top-35, Rochester with Charlotte Jones up front, Maren Greve slightly behind, and then a Falcon pack centered around the 25^th-30^th range. If that group can move up, points can be rapidly slashed, and if they pull back one Dakota girl, that can doubly affect the score.

Boys

#12 Lake Orion
#22 Romeo

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Lake Orion	50	89	95+	1 to 2
2	Romeo	66	11	95+	1 to 3
3	Rochester	87		95+	2 to 3
4	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	127			4 to 5
5	Rochester Adams	156			4 to 6
6	Macomb Dakota	181			5 to 8
7	Fraser	210			6 to 10
8	Anchor Bay	228			6 to 11
9	L’Anse Creuse North	233			6 to 11
10	Port Huron Northern	239			7 to 11
11	Utica Eisenhower	249			8 to 11
12	Chippewa Valley	288			10 to 12
13	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	363			13th
14	Roseville	464			14th
15	Port Huron	483			15th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Xavier Solgot	L’Anse Creuse North	1.7
2	11	Lucas Campbell	Rochester	2.7
3	11	Aidan Schwalbach	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	4.5
4	11	Wesley LaFever	Macomb Dakota	5.8
5	10	Luis Nava	Lake Orion	7.2
6	11	Ricardo Guajardo	Lake Orion	8.0
7	12	Jesse Reed	Rochester Adams	9.9
8	10	Avery Clinton-Barnett	Lake Orion	10.0
9	9	Logan Meerschaert	Lake Orion	10.3
10	10	Ripley Clor	Romeo	10.8
11	12	Grant Davis	Port Huron Northern	11.3
12	10	Finley Clor	Romeo	12.4
13	10	Brayden Goodsell	Romeo	14.3
14	12	Zach McGee	Lake Orion	14.3
15	10	Joseph Leigh	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	16.9
16	9	Jerryd Cromer	Rochester	19.0
17	12	Conner McLaughlin	Rochester	19.3
18	10	Rio Hrabovsky	Romeo	19.8
19	12	Carson Hlavin	Romeo	21.4
20	12	Luke Nagy	Rochester Adams	21.5
21	10	Logan Cichoracki	Romeo	22.6
22	10	Gavin Soviar	Fraser	22.9
23	10	Dax Purdy	Romeo	23.8
24	12	Alonso San Vicente Lugo	Rochester	23.9
25	11	Federico Moreno-Padilla	Utica Eisenhower	24.1
26	9	Elijah Campbell	Rochester	25.5
27	12	Brandon Ziehmer	Anchor Bay	25.6
28	11	Sebastian Azar	Anchor Bay	25.8
29	9	Clayton House	Lake Orion	26.5
30	10	Matthew Zora	Rochester	26.9

Girls

#4 Romeo
#7 Rochester Adams
#23 Macomb Dakota

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Romeo	43	88	95+	1 to 2
2	Rochester Adams	54	12	95+	1 to 2
3	Macomb Dakota	88		76	3 to 4
4	Rochester	99		24	3 to 4
5	Lake Orion	158			5 to 6
6	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	172			5 to 7
7	Utica Eisenhower	192			6 to 7
8	Fraser	218			8 to 9
9	Anchor Bay	246			8 to 11
10	Port Huron Northern	250			8 to 11
11	Chippewa Valley	281			10 to 12
12	L’Anse Creuse North	284			9 to 12
13	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	411			13th
14	Port Huron	441			14th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	1.5
2	11	Alannah Wessel	Romeo	3.9
3	11	Gabriella Mercier	Macomb Dakota	2.5
4	11	Charlotte Jones	Rochester	2.9
5	12	Reese Rosbolt	Romeo	5.0
6	12	El McMahan	Rochester Adams	6.3
7	10	Jessica Soldan	Rochester Adams	6.5
8	9	Molly Sarrach	Romeo	8.7
9	9	Anna Mansilla	Rochester Adams	9.2
10	10	Abby Deering	Rochester Adams	9.4
11	10	Grace Mathers	Macomb Dakota	9.7
12	9	Sophia Baier	Lake Orion	12.4
13	10	Clare McCloskey	Utica Eisenhower	15.6
14	12	Alexis Schwartz	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	17.3
15	12	Alice Foley	Fraser	17.9
16	11	Maren Greve	Rochester	19.1
17	10	Evelyn Clancy	Macomb Dakota	19.7
18	12	Haley Sharp	Port Huron Northern	20.2
19	10	Jelena Olechowski	Utica Eisenhower	21.2
20	12	Natalie Meldrum	Lake Orion	21.6
21	12	Faith Wessel	Romeo	22.0
22	9	Addison Mauck	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	22.5
23	12	Kaitlyn Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	22.9
24	11	Ava Thomas	Rochester Adams	23.7
25	9	Elena Wasilevich	Utica Eisenhower	24.2
26	10	Aryana Givans	Rochester	25.8
27	9	Bridget Phillips	Rochester	27.4
28	12	Annie Roraff	Rochester	28.1
29	9	Faith Hammer	Fraser	30.7
30	12	Adrienne Jones	Rochester	33.3

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Last year at both the regional and state level, these projections were as predictive and accurate as ever. Through totaling up all the odds of the top-3 teams, I anticipated 193 of the qualifiers would be correct come regional day. The projections bested that by one team, 194 correct qualifiers. Similar results came from the State Finals.

A change I made last year to shore up the projections was to filter out less important meets. These conference and weekday meets are great for building the database and showing the development of athletes who may not even run at the regional level, but they often are home to a runner’s slower efforts. All the important weekend meets are included. This same methodology is present here in 2026. One thing I noticed from looking back at ’25 is that early season meets weren’t adjusted highly enough. That has changed for 2026, although I’m not sure it’ll be a huge factor as those meets aren’t weighted that heavily at this point in the season.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race in October. This will attempt to account for injuries. There are also a few cases where I know a runner won’t be running the rest of the season.

Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.

Your D2 Regional Projections…

SUMMER PROJECTIONS
MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS

REGION 10

Any Big Battles?

Boys

#8 Petoskey
#23 Spring Lake

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Petoskey	46	95+	95+	1st
2	Spring Lake	103		95+	2 to 3
3	Fremont	124		94	2 to 4
4	Whitehall	156			3 to 7
5	Reed City	162			4 to 7
6	Cadillac	196			4 to 10
7	Gaylord	198			5 to 11
8	Big Rapids	209			6 to 11
9	Ludington	223			4 to 13
10	Howard City Tri-County	223			6 to 12
11	Fruitport	228			8 to 12
12	Clare	248			7 to 13
13	Muskegon Oakridge	254			7 to 13
14	Ogemaw Heights	428			14 to 15
15	Remus Chippewa Hills	436			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Robert Jazwinski III	Whitehall	1.0
2	12	Lukas Albright	Big Rapids	3.4
3	12	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	4.9
4	12	Jack Frentz	Petoskey	5.3
5	11	Christian Pavlige	Fruitport	5.5
6	12	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	5.7
7	12	Owen Adams	Spring Lake	6.9
8	12	Garrett Lansing	Petoskey	8.9
9	10	Colton Mulder	Cadillac	9.5
10	11	Rex Pumford	Whitehall	12.3
11	12	Carson Brey	Petoskey	12.4
12	11	Abraham Kiaunis	Reed City	14.1
13	12	Ryder Woodwyk	Spring Lake	15.4
14	11	Tate Smith	Fremont	15.4
15	10	Owen Young	Petoskey	15.7
16	12	Griffin Frentz	Petoskey	16.8
17	12	Mossen Green	Fremont	18.2
18	10	Dane Trask	Spring Lake	21.0
19	11	Tanner Dozier	Reed City	21.4
20	10	Noah Strother	Gaylord	22.0
21	12	Jayden Mueller	Muskegon Oakridge	22.5
22	9	Conrad Schwass	Ludington	22.9
23	11	Dylan Winskas	Fruitport	25.2
24	11	Isaac Vandlen	Spring Lake	28.3
25	11	Max Taylor	Fremont	28.5
26	11	Jacob Christoffersen	Fremont	31.0
27	10	David Strother	Gaylord	31.3
28	12	Tyler Schuster	Howard City Tri-County	31.6
29	12	Connor Schmidt	Clare	31.7
30	11	Fhoenix Stellard	Spring Lake	32.1

Girls

#13 Spring Lake
#20 Remus Chippewa Hills
#23 Clare
#25 Cadillac

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Spring Lake	78	78	95+	1 to 3
2	Remus Chippewa Hills	98	10	93	1 to 4
3	Clare	101	11	87	1 to 5
4	Cadillac	125		18	2 to 7
5	Ludington	146			4 to 8
6	Gaylord	155			5 to 8
7	Fruitport	156			4 to 8
8	Reed City	183			5 to 9
9	Petoskey	212			8 to 11
10	Whitehall	235			8 to 11
11	Fremont	236			8 to 11
12	Big Rapids	309			12th
13	Howard City Tri-County	396			13 to 14
14	Muskegon Oakridge	411			13 to 15
15	Ogemaw Heights	427			13 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Eliza Schwass	Ludington	1.7
2	12	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	2.3
3	9	Evelyn Goosen	Spring Lake	2.9
4	12	Zoe German	Fruitport	4.8
5	11	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	6.5
6	11	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	7.0
7	12	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	9.4
8	9	Cecelia Merrick	Gaylord	9.6
9	12	Cora Parker	Spring Lake	12.5
10	12	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City	13.9
11	9	Abigail Cooper	Spring Lake	13.9
12	12	Hallee Hervey	Reed City	15.4
13	9	Quinn Killian	Remus Chippewa Hills	15.8
14	9	Quinn Drake	Clare	17.9
15	11	Emma Stotzel	Clare	19.9
16	10	Evelayna Szajner	Gaylord	21.0
17	9	Addison Dekker	Remus Chippewa Hills	21.1
18	12	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	22.9
19	10	Hazel Cherney	Spring Lake	23.5
20	10	Conley Howard	Remus Chippewa Hills	23.7
21	11	Peyhton Beardsley	Fruitport	24.0
22	12	Lauren Leis	Clare	24.2
23	9	Brooklyn Kramer	Gaylord	24.5
24	12	Kira Manchip	Fremont	24.8
25	10	Myah Breuker	Fremont	26.5
26	9	Carlie Battle	Reed City	27.6
27	10	Aya Pateman	Petoskey	27.8
28	12	Gabrielle Chevez	Whitehall	28.9
29	10	Hailey Kuhn	Cadillac	29.4
30	10	Charly Braidwood	Spring Lake	29.5

REGION 11

Any Big Battles?

The Dutch looking to spring an upset on either side. They have fighters chances in each, perhaps moreso in the girls race.

After all, Holland has an 11^th-ranked girls squad. The strength of the Dutch lies in their blend of strength up front and numbers behind. Even missing Johanna Mulder for much of the fall, Holland has been able to find five other girls that’ve been sub-21. One of those is Olivia Weiss, who will definitely mix it up at the front of this race. It’ll be tough, as this may be the toughest girls region of any division. Holland Christian is the defending champ with no let up, Coopersville just won the RCA with Allendale right on their tail. Whomever makes it out will surely deserve it.

The boys have slightly lower odds, but have an easier road in terms of competition. Holland Christian’s boys are ranked #1, but beyond the Maroons, only Cedar Springs comes in as a ranked squad. To advance, the Dutch will need to turn in a performance similar to Portage, where Holland was able to place three boys in the low-17’s or faster, then back it up with two in the 18’s. That led Holland to a 17^th place finish, 21 points behind Grand Rapids Catholic Central. In a smaller field, perhaps the strength of the three lower sticks would be magnified.

Boys

#1 Holland Christian
#24 Cedar Springs

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Holland Christian	25	95+	95+	1st
2	Cedar Springs	99		95+	2 to 3
3	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	113		66	2 to 5
4	Holland	123		25	2 to 6
5	Coopersville	136		6	3 to 6
6	Hudsonville Unity Christian	144			3 to 7
7	Allendale	166			6 to 7
8	Sparta	204			8 to 9
9	South Haven	238			8 to 9
10	Allegan	274			10 to 11
11	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	304			10 to 11
12	Hamilton	343			12th
13	Wyoming Lee	408			13 to 14
14	Comstock Park	410			13 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	1.8
2	10	Grant Lampen	Holland Christian	3.0
3	9	Drew Franken	Holland Christian	3.7
4	12	Mason Hill	Allendale	4.8
5	10	Zander Stewart	Holland Christian	5.0
6	12	Cole Coffman	Holland Christian	6.2
7	10	Zach Diller	Holland Christian	7.3
8	11	Aiden Lambers	Holland	7.4
9	12	Alex Ten Haken	Hudsonville Unity Christian	9.1
10	12	Peyton Farrell	Cedar Springs	11.3
11	12	Rylan VanDenBeldt	Holland Christian	13.1
12	11	Cole Raymond	Coopersville	14.5
13	12	Kellen Chalupa	Allegan	15.1
14	10	James Elliott	Cedar Springs	15.9
15	11	Caelen Gray	Holland	16.7
16	11	Hagan Biehl	Sparta	17.0
17	11	Derek Bostrom	Holland Christian	17.5
18	12	Samuel Organ	Cedar Springs	18.1
19	10	Brycen Stewart	Allendale	19.3
20	9	Jack Schulte	Holland	19.6
21	11	Zane Molewyk	Coopersville	22.0
22	10	Cameron Howe	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	23.2
23	12	Nolan Wiens	South Haven	23.8
24	9	Nolan Richardson	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	24.2
25	12	Brandon Peterson	Coopersville	24.3
26	10	Leo Alivia	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	27.2
27	9	Hayden Woodwyk	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.3
28	10	Eli Schout	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.9
29	12	Tristan See	Cedar Springs	28.2
30	11	Braylon Bigorowski	Coopersville	29.6

Girls

#1 Holland Christian
#9 Coopersville
#10 Allendale
#11 Holland

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Holland Christian	33	95+	95+	1st
2	Coopersville	84		94	2 to 4
3	Allendale	95		63	2 to 4
4	Holland	97		43	2 to 4
5	Cedar Springs	136			5 to 6
6	Hudsonville Unity Christian	164			5 to 7
7	Sparta	167			6 to 7
8	Grand Rapids West Catholic	240			8 to 10
9	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	247			8 to 11
10	Hamilton	279			9 to 11
11	South Haven	288			9 to 11
12	Comstock Park	373			12 to 13
13	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	373			12 to 14
14	Wyoming Lee	409			13 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	1.1
2	11	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	2.7
3	10	Breslyn Klein	Coopersville	3.3
4	12	Mia May	Sparta	3.5
5	12	Olivia Weiss	Holland	5.5
6	12	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	6.2
7	12	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	6.7
8	9	Molly White	Holland Christian	8.7
9	12	Sawyer Reagan	Allendale	9.6
10	9	Anna Zietlow	Holland Christian	11.1
11	9	Molly Murphy	Holland	12.0
12	12	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	12.7
13	10	Addisyn Wood	Sparta	13.2
14	11	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	14.0
15	10	Mia Hill	Allendale	14.9
16	11	Annika Stob	Holland Christian	15.4
17	10	Tessa Nienhuis	Holland	18.5
18	10	Lauren Meyer	Allendale	19.2
19	12	Abby Noorman	Cedar Springs	19.5
20	12	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	21.8
21	12	Noelle Wielhouwer	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.8
22	9	Keira Garza	Grand Rapids West Catholic	23.8
23	11	Quinn McWilliams	Coopersville	24.2
24	12	Kylee Brose	Allendale	24.3
25	9	Halle Valliere	Cedar Springs	24.5
26	11	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs	28.1
27	11	Lexi Gibson	Holland	28.5
28	12	Lydia Nelson	Hamilton	29.9
29	12	Emory Smith	Cedar Springs	31.7
30	10	Katelyn Ashworth	Allendale	31.9

REGION 12

Any Big Battles?

Not particularly in terms of qualifiers, as usual Region 12 is comprised of extremely strong traditional powers such as East Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Christian, Forest Hills Eastern, and Grand Rapids South Christian. These folks should dominate as usual (I feel for you, Thornapple-Kellogg girls, perhaps the MHSAA can move you to Region 13 next year?).

There might be some drama as to who will be the winner in the girls race. Grand Rapids Christian has been on a roll lately, seemingly putting every girl in their roster into the 19’s in recent weeks. But South Christian has been known to rally for an upset here, as they did last fall. The Sailors certainly made a run at the Eagles back in early October at Otsego, hanging with GRC through four girls, but faltering to the Eagle depth. Whatever goes down, three teams capable of placing in the top-10 at MIS will likely advance.

Boys

#3 East Grand Rapids
#10 Grand Rapids Christian
#17 Forest Hills Eastern

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	East Grand Rapids	42	95+	95+	1st
2	Grand Rapids Christian	67		95+	2 to 3
3	Forest Hills Eastern	82		95+	2 to 3
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	125			4 to 5
5	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	147			4 to 5
6	GR West Michigan Aviation	196			6 to 7
7	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	210			6 to 7
8	Hopkins	265			8 to 11
9	Portland	272			8 to 12
10	Lake Odessa Lakewood	278			8 to 11
11	Hastings	302			9 to 14
12	Grand River Preparatory	307			8 to 14
13	Ionia	325			10 to 14
14	Wayland Union	327			11 to 14
15	Battle Creek Pennfield	387			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	1.5
2	11	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	2.2
3	12	Thomas Fisher	East Grand Rapids	3.8
4	11	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	3.8
5	11	Grayson Michels	Forest Hills Eastern	4.6
6	12	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	8.1
7	11	Beckett Kneisel	East Grand Rapids	8.2
8	12	Ben Verlin	Grand Rapids South Christian	9.7
9	10	Hudson Kemper	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.0
10	11	Jacob Kornoely	GR West Michigan Aviation	10.6
11	12	Lucas Aardema	East Grand Rapids	10.9
12	12	Josiah Rozema	Grand Rapids South Christian	12.8
13	11	Donnie Richmond	Portland	14.3
14	11	Kash Moored	Hopkins	14.6
15	9	Bennett Piippo	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	16.0
16	12	Elias DeJong	Grand Rapids Christian	17.0
17	11	Tate VanDaele	Forest Hills Eastern	20.3
18	9	Bennett Teitsma	Grand Rapids Christian	21.5
19	10	Owen Bremer	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	21.7
20	9	Evan Occhipinti	Forest Hills Eastern	22.1
21	10	Aaron Martinson	Portland	22.7
22	12	Sean Wilson-Ross	East Grand Rapids	22.9
23	12	Easton McCloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	23.2
24	0	Henry Straveler	East Grand Rapids	23.2
25	9	Wesley Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	24.6
26	12	Mason Fein	Wayland Union	26.9
27	10	Luke Worley	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	27.4
28	12	Riley Day	Forest Hills Eastern	27.7
29	12	Kaden Rohrbacher	Lake Odessa Lakewood	28.1
30	12	Chase Woller-Skar	East Grand Rapids	29.0

Girls

#3 Grand Rapids Christian
#5 East Grand Rapids
#6 Grand Rapids South Christian
#15 Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Grand Rapids Christian	59	76	95+	1 to 3
2	Grand Rapids South Christian	69	20	95+	1 to 3
3	East Grand Rapids	78	4	95+	1 to 3
4	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	115			4th
5	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	190			5 to 8
6	Hastings	204			5 to 10
7	Forest Hills Eastern	209			5 to 9
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	210			5 to 10
9	Wayland Union	226			6 to 10
10	Hopkins	228			7 to 10
11	Ionia	269			7 to 11
12	Grand River Preparatory	356			12 to 13
13	Portland	364			12 to 14
14	Battle Creek Pennfield	391			13 to 15
15	Lake Odessa Lakewood	404			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Caroline Randall	Hastings	1.0
2	11	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	2.4
3	10	Lily VanEyk	Grand Rapids South Christian	5.6
4	9	Emi Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	5.7
5	11	Anneliese Passchier	East Grand Rapids	6.4
6	12	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	8.0
7	10	Noelle Hulst	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.0
8	12	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	10.3
9	11	Joy Van Wyk	Grand Rapids Christian	11.7
10	12	Ahna Woltjer	GR West Michigan Aviation	11.8
11	9	Carleigh Gearhart	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	13.4
12	12	Lillian Dewey	Hopkins	13.8
13	9	Charlotte Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	14.0
14	11	Eva Lindstrom	Grand Rapids Christian	14.5
15	10	Eliana Zwiep	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	15.0
16	11	Alena Sportel	Grand Rapids Christian	15.6
17	11	Abree VanDenBrink	Wayland Union	16.0
18	11	Maggie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	17.1
19	11	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern	17.5
20	12	Meghan-Jane Skidmore	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	17.6
21	12	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	18.4
22	11	Caroline Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	19.6
23	9	Claire Setsma	Grand Rapids Christian	20.4
24	11	Vivienne Conflitti	Forest Hills Eastern	20.7
25	10	Hailey Moorman	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.0
26	10	Isabelle Oostema	Grand Rapids South Christian	28.6
27	10	Annalise Wiltjer	Grand Rapids South Christian	29.4
28	11	Ava Benedict	Ionia	29.5
29	10	Lucy Straveler	East Grand Rapids	29.5
30	9	Lenna Wendt	Hastings	29.9

REGION 13

Any Big Battles?

There really are some good ones across both genders.

For the boys, it’s the fact that any one of three teams could win the thing. Both Otsego and Vicksburg provided an example of this in early October at the Bulldog Invite. Vicksburg prevailed, bolstered by the strong performances of Hunter Smith and Caiden Caswell, though the home team found their varsity scorers all in the 16’s. Both quality performances of regional-winning variety. St. Joseph has a case, too, evidenced by the SMAC Championship and Sturgis that saw the Bears average sub-17 across their top-five. Heck, even Paw Paw has a case, splitting Vicksburg and Otsego in the Wolverine Conference final.

With Otsego’s elite girls team, winning is out of the question for the women’s field. But qualifying spots are up for grabs. St. Joseph has been improving all fall and Plainwell has two low-sticks, needing to score three. If Sturgis should pull the upset, they’ll need to summon an effort similar to the Bulldog Invite, where six Trojan girls hit sub-21. Filtering for Region 13 teams there, Sturgis actually beat Plainwell, but in a larger field, Natalya Hoffman and Mai Nguyen could have a tremendous impact.

Boys

#11 Vicksburg
#12 Otsego
#14 St. Joseph
#19 Paw Paw

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Vicksburg	74	57	95+	1 to 4
2	Otsego	83	19	95+	1 to 3
3	St. Joseph	89	22	80	1 to 4
4	Paw Paw	110		23	2 to 5
5	Battle Creek Harper Creek	151			4 to 6
6	Edwardsburg	162			5 to 7
7	Three Rivers	188			6 to 8
8	Plainwell	218			7 to 10
9	Niles	242			8 to 11
10	Sturgis	262			8 to 12
11	Marshall	273			9 to 12
12	Coldwater	283			10 to 13
13	Berrien Springs	316			12 to 13
14	Stevensville Lakeshore	380			14th
15	Dowagiac Union	463			15th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	1.7
2	11	Ethan Ferguson	Edwardsburg	5.1
3	11	David Kore	Three Rivers	5.7
4	12	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	5.7
5	12	Seth Randall	St. Joseph	6.1
6	12	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	7.2
7	12	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	7.5
8	11	Carson Wiersbe	St. Joseph	8.2
9	12	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek	10.1
10	11	Landon Lindsay	Paw Paw	10.3
11	10	George Whitaker	Otsego	10.4
12	12	Grayson Campbell	Vicksburg	11.1
13	11	Grant Krause	Paw Paw	12.4
14	11	Kaleb Koestner	Otsego	15.3
15	10	John Brickley	Niles	15.7
16	12	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	16.0
17	11	Matthew LaPorte	St. Joseph	16.4
18	10	Ryan Long	Otsego	17.5
19	9	Ethan VanHouten	Otsego	18.2
20	11	Reed Gates	Edwardsburg	19.8
21	12	Gunnar Djerf	Otsego	21.9
22	10	Cooper Monroe	Battle Creek Harper Creek	24.4
23	9	Easton Netzley	St. Joseph	25.5
24	12	William Justice	Plainwell	29.4
25	10	Landan Jenkins	Battle Creek Harper Creek	30.5
26	9	Caleb Carrington	Niles	30.8
27	10	Elijah Harris	Three Rivers	30.8
28	9	Dexter Parsons	Vicksburg	31.7
29	12	Carson Summerfield	Vicksburg	32.0
30	11	Braiden Schuh	Edwardsburg	32.2

Girls

#2 Otsego
#19 Plainwell
#21 St. Joseph
#26 Sturgis

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Otsego	32	95+	95+	1st
2	Plainwell	109		88	2 to 4
3	St. Joseph	121		65	2 to 6
4	Sturgis	129		38	2 to 7
5	Stevensville Lakeshore	157			4 to 7
6	Battle Creek Harper Creek	168			3 to 8
7	Paw Paw	168			3 to 8
8	Three Rivers	198			5 to 10
9	Edwardsburg	213			7 to 10
10	Vicksburg	248			8 to 11
11	Marshall	303			10 to 13
12	Niles	315			11 to 14
13	Berrien Springs	350			11 to 14
14	Coldwater	351			12 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Natalya Hoffman	Plainwell	1.2
2	11	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell	3.3
3	11	Grace Leman	Edwardsburg	4.8
4	10	Addelyn Sabatke	Otsego	4.9
5	10	Adelyn Verhage	Otsego	6.1
6	10	Alayna Verhage	Otsego	7.0
7	9	Addison Andress	Otsego	8.0
8	12	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	8.1
9	10	Lydia Dwyer	Stevensville Lakeshore	9.0
10	10	Taylee Fox	Otsego	10.7
11	9	Alice Starkey	Sturgis	14.0
12	12	Madeline Goodwin	Otsego	14.5
13	10	Vittoria Perucchetti	St. Joseph	14.7
14	12	Abigail Luckman	Stevensville Lakeshore	15.8
15	11	Avery Huff	Paw Paw	17.0
16	10	Kenna Koole	Vicksburg	17.3
17	11	Alaina Dillon	Marshall	18.2
18	9	Taylor Schulte	St. Joseph	20.8
19	10	Lulu Park	Sturgis	21.5
20	12	Marley Momany	Stevensville Lakeshore	22.1
21	11	Layla Gableman	Edwardsburg	23.5
22	11	Molly Bruggink	Plainwell	24.7
23	11	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	27.3
24	10	Alaina Kirkpatrick	Battle Creek Harper Creek	28.9
25	9	Kloey Osborn	Three Rivers	30.2
26	9	Leilani Machuca	Sturgis	30.7
27	9	Adelyn Richardson	St. Joseph	30.9
28	12	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	31.1
29	9	Lucy Schwartz	Battle Creek Harper Creek	31.5
30	9	Lauren Kane	Three Rivers	34.1

REGION 14

Any Big Battles?

The question to me – will Linden or Parma Western come into DeWitt’s lair and bring home a regional trophy? The Panther boys and girls could make it difficult. The girls were a surprise winner at Greater Lansing, knocking off potential D1 qualifiers and D3 champions. Clara Cook was a terror up front, then their 2^nd-5^th held serve with the best that others had to offer. The boys are coming off perhaps their best outing of the year, placing 2^nd in the CAAC Blue, packing up between 16:45 and 17:25.

But the odds are stacked against DeWitt. Racing here in early October, Parma Western began their ascent into the upper echelon of D2, placing all five scorers ahead of DeWitt’s 1^st boy. Linden wreaked havoc as well, opening up an overwhelming gap at the final scoring slot. Past results vs. home team improvement and home course advantage.

Boys

#5 Parma Western
#15 DeWitt
#16 Owosso
#21 Haslett
#26 Williamston

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Parma Western	45	90	95+	1 to 2
2	DeWitt	67	8	95+	1 to 3
3	Owosso	79		76	2 to 4
4	Haslett	91		22	3 to 5
5	Williamston	109			4 to 5
6	St. Johns	174			6 to 7
7	Linden	216			6 to 9
8	Corunna	221			7 to 9
9	Lake Fenton	256			8 to 10
10	Jackson Northwest	274			8 to 10
11	Charlotte	333			11 to 12
12	Eaton Rapids	356			11 to 13
13	Fowlerville	367			11 to 13
14	Lansing Sexton	423			14th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Logan Cristian	Parma Western	1.3
2	11	Liam Dewitt	Haslett	2.9
3	11	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	4.9
4	10	Leland Sowle	Parma Western	5.6
5	10	Leonidas Erfourth	Owosso	7.3
6	9	Braysen Kramer	DeWitt	8.0
7	11	Isaiah Cates	Haslett	8.0
8	11	Jackson Butts	Lake Fenton	9.1
9	9	Spencer Sobak	Owosso	10.6
10	12	Ryan Good	Parma Western	11.1
11	11	Roan VanSumeren	Parma Western	11.8
12	9	Colin Branch	DeWitt	12.9
13	11	Teddy Weber	Williamston	15.0
14	12	Will Chelotti	DeWitt	15.6
15	11	Brady Rappuhn	Owosso	16.0
16	12	Caleb Lynd	Parma Western	16.7
17	10	Livio Muzzin	DeWitt	16.8
18	11	Alec Hoy	St. Johns	17.2
19	9	Sterling Burnie	DeWitt	17.8
20	10	Gracin Zelski	DeWitt	19.8
21	10	Max Bobeda	DeWitt	22.6
22	12	Sawyer Zeman	Haslett	22.9
23	11	Christian LeConte	Owosso	23.0
24	10	Micah Good	Parma Western	23.5
25	9	Luke Weber	Williamston	23.8
26	12	Ariston Dallas	Owosso	24.1
27	12	Kodi Rose	Haslett	24.4
28	10	Lucas Heid	Corunna	28.3
29	11	Elliott Cook	St. Johns	30.6
30	9	Peyton Raymer	Williamston	30.6

Girls

#4 Linden
#7 DeWitt
#16 Williamston

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Linden	47	86	95+	1 to 2
2	DeWitt	56	14	95+	1 to 2
3	Williamston	98		95+	3rd
4	Haslett	132			4th
5	Charlotte	171			5 to 8
6	Parma Western	173			5 to 8
7	Owosso	188			5 to 9
8	Lake Fenton	196			5 to 10
9	St. Johns	201			5 to 10
10	Fowlerville	226			9 to 10
11	Corunna	312			11 to 12
12	Jackson Northwest	314			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.3
2	9	Clara Cook	DeWitt	2.0
3	12	Addison Josephson	Linden	3.4
4	11	Courtney Floeter	Linden	4.5
5	9	Annabel Buggia	Williamston	4.6
6	11	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	5.8
7	11	Natalie Hayes	DeWitt	7.4
8	11	Abby Crandell	Owosso	10.8
9	12	Colette Charchut	Haslett	11.3
10	12	Anna Soltis	DeWitt	13.2
11	11	Bridget Fullerton	Parma Western	13.4
12	10	Brooklyn Takagishi	DeWitt	13.9
13	9	Kennedy Kolodica	Linden	14.1
14	9	Ella Bahle	Williamston	14.6
15	12	Avery Silvas	Charlotte	15.9
16	12	Sidney Shepard	Linden	16.2
17	10	Emma Durling	Linden	16.4
18	11	Molly Roberts	Linden	16.6
19	12	Elliana Hufton	Lake Fenton	18.5
20	12	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	19.9
21	10	Dakota Budd	Haslett	21.4
22	10	Cecilia Kelly	Williamston	22.4
23	9	Violette Goodrich	Charlotte	23.8
24	11	Clara Marschall	Fowlerville	24.3
25	10	Madisyn Blair	Parma Western	25.0
26	11	Emma Cook	DeWitt	26.0
27	12	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	26.8
28	9	Penny Ewald	Owosso	28.5
29	11	Rory Doepker	DeWitt	28.9
30	11	Lilee Elliott	DeWitt	29.4

REGION 15

Any Big Battles?

The four teams that are in the running for two spots in the girls race. None of the squads from Shepherd, Freeland, Frankenmuth, or Flint Powers Catholic are ranked, but that’s no mind, state spots are on the line. The home Bluejays have moved up the most over the past month. The JPC streak may have faltered, but Shepherd has had some of their depth pieces undergo massive transformations. One in particular is Annalee Takalo, who dropped an enormous amount of time at Mt. Pleasant’s Blue and Gold Invite. Frankenmuth’s odds have also increased, the Eagles coming off one of their better efforts of the year at the final TVC Jamboree, four ‘Muth girls sub-22. Freeland has been steady all October and has the frontrunnin’ Clara Kaczor as a reliable low-stick. And I wouldn’t count out Flint Powers, who a month back here at Bluejay had their best performance of the fall, placing 2^nd in the Blue division with three girls sub-21.

Boys

#4 Flint Powers Catholic
#7 Alma
#9 Shepherd
#27 Freeland

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Flint Powers Catholic	47	84	95+	1 to 2
2	Alma	63	9	95+	1 to 3
3	Shepherd	74	7	95+	1 to 4
4	Freeland	121			3 to 4
5	Saginaw Swan Valley	181			5 to 6
6	Frankenmuth	189			5 to 6
7	Clio	238			7 to 10
8	Birch Run	247			7 to 10
9	Bay City John Glenn	258			8 to 11
10	North Branch	260			7 to 11
11	Essexville-Garber	282			7 to 12
12	Goodrich	287			8 to 12
13	Flint Kearsley	351			13 to 15
14	Bay City Central	358			13 to 15
15	Saginaw United	379			13 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	1.4
2	12	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	3.6
3	12	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	4.7
4	12	Nick Parker	Frankenmuth	4.8
5	12	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	5.6
6	12	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	7.0
7	9	Connor Charboneau	Saginaw Swan Valley	7.9
8	10	Nico Lebron	Alma	10.2
9	11	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic	10.4
10	11	Samuel Johnson	Alma	11.4
11	12	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	13.2
12	11	Alex Iordanou	Flint Powers Catholic	14.3
13	11	Alexander Iordanou	Flint Powers Catholic	16.4
14	12	Drew Davis	Shepherd	16.4
15	12	Jakin Whitney	Shepherd	16.9
16	12	Jackson Horn	Freeland	18.1
17	10	Ryan Brown	Freeland	18.4
18	11	Griffin Solano	Flint Powers Catholic	19.7
19	9	Camden Clevenger	Goodrich	20.4
20	9	Caleb Cahoon	Shepherd	21.7
21	9	Carter Minnis	Freeland	21.9
22	9	Daniel Newman	Flint Powers Catholic	21.9
23	9	Reece Lorencz	Goodrich	22.2
24	12	Braeden Conger	Frankenmuth	24.2
25	10	Connor Miller	Alma	24.2
26	10	Charlie Fields	North Branch	24.5
27	12	William McDonald	Shepherd	26.7
28	12	Spencer Dammann	Saginaw Swan Valley	28.1
29	11	Charles Murray	Bay City John Glenn	29.4
30	12	Devlin Johnson	Freeland	29.9

Girls

#12 Goodrich

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Goodrich	48	95+	95+	1st
2	Shepherd	87		89	2 to 4
3	Freeland	90		78	2 to 4
4	Flint Powers Catholic	107		16	2 to 6
5	Frankenmuth	109		17	2 to 6
6	Alma	144			5 to 7
7	Birch Run	175			6 to 8
8	Saginaw Swan Valley	186			6 to 9
9	Essexville-Garber	232			8 to 10
10	Clio	270			9 to 11
11	Bay City John Glenn	323			11 to 12
12	North Branch	324			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	1.3
2	12	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	2.3
3	12	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	2.9
4	12	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	5.2
5	12	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	6.1
6	11	Cailyn Baker	Shepherd	6.2
7	11	Danica Redes	Shepherd	7.0
8	11	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic	7.3
9	12	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	8.4
10	11	Victoria Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	11.2
11	12	Aubrey Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	11.6
12	9	Jade McCormick	Flint Powers Catholic	15.3
13	9	Emma Parker	Frankenmuth	15.6
14	11	Sarah Warner	Shepherd	16.3
15	10	Grace Hancock	Alma	17.5
16	12	Claire Arnold	Essexville-Garber	17.9
17	10	Grace Kloha	Freeland	18.4
18	10	Addyson Campbell	Goodrich	19.5
19	10	Katie Niederquell	Freeland	20.1
20	9	Molly Scott	Goodrich	20.4
21	10	Sevarah Markham	Alma	21.8
22	11	Kinsley Compau	Frankenmuth	23.1
23	12	Olivia Mielke	Freeland	23.9
24	9	Tatum McGill	Alma	24.8
25	11	Sofia Sporman	Flint Kearsley	26.7
26	12	Annalee Takalo	Shepherd	27.5
27	10	Addison King	Frankenmuth	29.0
28	10	Sarah Diffin	Freeland	29.1
29	9	Kenley Townsend	Saginaw Swan Valley	32.4
30	9	Sydney Lane	Clio	32.8

REGION 16

Any Big Battles?

I wish I could say there’s been some clarity after the past month, but I’ve got nothing.

At the mid-season mark, here’s what the projections showed:

Chelsea – 2^nd, 72 points
Detroit Country Day – 3^rd, 81 points
Dearborn Divine Child – 4^th, 89 points
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard – 5^th, 91 points

Right now, it’s:

Chelsea – 3^rd, 75 points
Detroit Country Day – 2^nd, 75 points
Dearborn Divine Child – 4^th, 86 points
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard – 5^th, 95 points

If you squint closely, you might notice that Country Day and Divine Child have moved up slightly. Country Day has one notable race in that timeframe, a CHSL Bishop Championship where four Yellowjackets ran the equivalent of a sub-17 on the tough Possum Hollow track. Divine Child was also present there, placing one spot behind DCD, putting forth a state-qualifying quality effort. Their next race was at Gabriel Richard, where the Falcons succumbed to both Chelsea and Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard.

The projections love Chelsea because of the Bulldogs’ ability to stay consistent, many of their ratings with little variance. Country Day and Divine Child go hand-in-hand, with Country Day performing slightly better recently. Gabriel Richard is the wildcard, with their home invite being their finest effort of the year, a chance that the Fighting Irish could be still rising and pull off a shocker.

Boys

#2 Pinckney
#18 Detroit Country Day
#20 Chelsea
#22 Dearborn Divine Child
#25 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Pinckney	26	95+	95+	1st
2	Detroit Country Day	72		81	2 to 4
3	Chelsea	75		84	2 to 4
4	Dearborn Divine Child	86		26	2 to 5
5	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	95		9	3 to 5
6	Grosse Pointe North	201			6 to 7
7	Detroit Voyageur	224			6 to 7
8	Detroit Cody	281			8 to 9
9	Detroit East English	317			9 to 11
10	Warren Lincoln	318			9 to 12
11	Eastpointe	323			9 to 12
12	Garden City	339			9 to 13
13	Detroit Henry Ford	365			12 to 15
14	Center Line	377			13 to 15
15	Detroit Southeastern Tech	404			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	1.5
2	11	Jack Hincks	Detroit Country Day	2.4
3	12	Lincoln Reed	Pinckney	3.1
4	12	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	3.5
5	10	Cash Wilds	Pinckney	7.0
6	10	John Rochowiak	Pinckney	7.0
7	10	Matt McFall	Pinckney	8.2
8	12	Samuel Clifton	Chelsea	8.5
9	12	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	11.7
10	10	Hari Varma	Detroit Country Day	12.3
11	11	Daniel Reifenberg	Dearborn Divine Child	13.6
12	10	Wyatt Jespersen	Pinckney	13.6
13	11	Landen Bermudez	Dearborn Divine Child	14.0
14	11	Ethan Bray	Detroit Country Day	14.2
15	12	Jonathan Rapoza	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.3
16	12	Grant Goodwin	Dearborn Divine Child	14.5
17	12	Owen Thorburn	Chelsea	17.2
18	11	Ben Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	17.6
19	12	Joseph Arriola	Dearborn Divine Child	18.5
20	12	Leo Alafita	Chelsea	19.0
21	12	Caleb Maciag	Pinckney	19.2
22	9	Dominic Cai	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.4
23	12	Conley Poole	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.7
24	10	John Fedewa	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.7
25	12	Jacob Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child	26.5
26	12	Preston Vasas	Chelsea	27.6
27	11	Zachary Barszczowski	Dearborn Divine Child	28.8
28	11	George Fredenberg	Chelsea	29.5
29	10	Ellis Carmichael	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	30.1
30	9	Charlie Fredenberg	Chelsea	31.1

Girls

#17 Pinckney
#24 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Pinckney	49	81	95+	1 to 3
2	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	59	16	95+	1 to 3
3	Farmington Hills Mercy	67	3	95+	1 to 3
4	Dearborn Divine Child	106			4 to 5
5	Chelsea	114			4 to 5
6	Grosse Pointe North	139			6 to 7
7	Detroit Country Day	158			6 to 7
8	Garden City	252			8th
9	Detroit Southeastern Tech	279			9th
10	Detroit Cody	319			10th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	1.0
2	11	Maya Hammoud	Detroit Country Day	3.6
3	11	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney	3.9
4	11	Elizabeth Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	4.0
5	9	Mary Hickey	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	6.3
6	12	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	6.4
7	12	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	6.9
8	11	Grace Bedner	Farmington Hills Mercy	7.5
9	11	Ainslie Carter	Farmington Hills Mercy	9.0
10	9	Hailey Baltzell	Pinckney	9.5
11	10	Jordane Falvey	Dearborn Divine Child	12.4
12	9	Gabriella Diaz	Dearborn Divine Child	13.0
13	11	Ella Trueman	Dearborn Divine Child	14.1
14	12	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.5
15	12	Rose Buonerba	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.7
16	11	Kaylynne Baltzell	Pinckney	15.7
17	12	Alexis Adelman	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	17.6
18	9	Wilhelmina VanderWerp	Grosse Pointe North	18.1
19	11	Abigail Adams	Pinckney	19.7
20	9	Noelle Lyon	Grosse Pointe North	20.4
21	10	JJ Lukas	Farmington Hills Mercy	21.5
22	12	Megan Welch	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.9
23	12	Sofia Dussan	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	22.7
24	10	Kathryn Dunn	Chelsea	23.6
25	12	Persephone Berg	Chelsea	25.5
26	10	Maddy Robison	Farmington Hills Mercy	27.9
27	10	Addison Leschuk	Chelsea	28.2
28	11	Madeline Barringer	Farmington Hills Mercy	28.9
29	12	Davea Crowe	Pinckney	29.7
30	12	Sofia Razny	Farmington Hills Mercy	29.9

REGION 17

Any Big Battles?

Perhaps Cranbrook-Kingswood’s girls can continue their rise and advance to race another week. The Cranes were projected 7^th in the Mid-Season Projections and have risen to 4^th. They can give thanks to both Diya Goyal and Stella Handel, each of whom have improved markedly since mid-season. Both are fresh off shiny new PR’s earned at Larry Steeb, 19:57 and 20:25 respectively. Add Zahiya Khan into the lineup and mix with the frontrunnin’ Katherine Estes and they’ve got a chance.

Of course, they’ll have to crack a Macomb Lutheran North squad that’s made a living on this course. The Mustangs have ran here on a few occasions, and have put in their best efforts each time out. The most recent came at the BWAC Championship, where all five LN scorers were able to cross under 21:00, contributing to a team championship.

Boys

#8 Holly

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Holly	31	95+	95+	1st
2	Marysville	104		95+	2 to 3
3	Yale	109		95+	2 to 4
4	Croswell-Lexington	150			4 to 8
5	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	155			3 to 8
6	Macomb Lutheran North	159			4 to 8
7	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	160			4 to 8
8	St. Clair	183			5 to 9
9	Armada	228			9 to 10
10	Imlay City	243			8 to 12
11	Madison Heights Lamphere	274			10 to 12
12	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	302			10 to 13
13	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	348			12 to 13

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Broden Ladd	Holly	1.1
2	11	Cole Heikka	Holly	2.5
3	12	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	3.6
4	12	Trevor Murphy	Holly	5.1
5	12	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	5.3
6	11	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	6.4
7	12	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	6.7
8	10	Caleb McBride	Marysville	8.2
9	11	Elliot Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	9.1
10	11	Joshua Byrtus	Holly	10.4
11	11	Brady VanConant	Yale	12.5
12	11	Joshua Behrend	Holly	14.0
13	11	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond	14.5
14	12	Wyatt Bovensiep	Auburn Hills Avondale	16.1
15	10	Travis Murphy	Holly	16.2
16	9	Noah Miller	Yale	16.6
17	11	Griffin Kreger	St. Clair	17.0
18	12	Brendan Koza	Marysville	17.4
19	9	Weston Rutallie	Marysville	19.6
20	10	Ben Socia	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	21.3
21	11	Logan Carrier	Yale	22.2
22	9	Alexander Bertucci	Holly	24.3
23	11	Karsten Martin	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	25.6
24	10	Andrew Yousif	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	27.2
25	10	Colt Truscott	Croswell-Lexington	29.7
26	11	Edward Marshall	Armada	30.0
27	12	Mason Russell	Imlay City	30.1
28	11	Alexander Repp	Croswell-Lexington	31.1
29	10	Jack Abdelnour	Macomb Lutheran North	31.3
30	10	Joseph Aramouni	Madison Heights Lamphere	32.7

Girls

#8 Bloomfield Hills Marian
#18 Holly
#22 Macomb Lutheran North

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Bloomfield Hills Marian	58	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Holly	85		95+	2 to 3
3	Macomb Lutheran North	89	3	81	1 to 5
4	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	124		15	2 to 7
5	Armada	133		6	3 to 8
6	Yale	153			4 to 8
7	St. Clair	168			5 to 9
8	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	187			5 to 10
9	Croswell-Lexington	193			6 to 9
10	Marysville	252			9 to 10
11	Warren Regina	300			11 to 12
12	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	311			11 to 12
13	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	434			13 to 15
14	Imlay City	451			13 to 15
15	Richmond	451			13 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Julia Bambach	Holly	1.3
2	12	Maddie Lindley	Holly	1.7
3	12	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	5.3
4	10	Katherine Estes	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	5.9
5	11	Chloe Boright	Macomb Lutheran North	6.0
6	9	Marian Byrd	Bloomfield Hills Marian	6.4
7	11	Saige Cole	Yale	6.5
8	9	Josephine Humphrey	Bloomfield Hills Marian	9.4
9	9	Layla Tedder	Armada	11.8
10	12	Lucille Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	12.6
11	11	Gabby Schuff	Bloomfield Hills Marian	13.1
12	10	Claire Albrecht	Armada	14.3
13	11	Zahiya Khan	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	14.6
14	11	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	17.5
15	10	Lyla Eidson	Auburn Hills Avondale	18.7
16	12	Flora Ramos	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	19.4
17	10	Kamille Fitzpatrick	Armada	21.0
18	10	Leah Murchie	Holly	21.3
19	11	Lucy Gump	Macomb Lutheran North	21.4
20	10	Katelyn Schweihofer	Yale	21.9
21	9	Abby Dietzel	Marysville	22.7
22	10	Melanie Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	22.8
23	11	Maria Burlingame	Bloomfield Hills Marian	23.3
24	12	Eliza Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	23.5
25	9	Izzy Runevitch	Holly	23.5
26	12	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	25.0
27	11	Alayna Smith	Bloomfield Hills Marian	27.3
28	12	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	29.1
29	11	Stella Handel	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	30.7
30	10	Rose Hill	St. Clair	30.9

REGION 18

Any Big Battles?

Carleton Airport vs. New Boston Huron for the final boys qualifying spot. Most of the other spots seem set in stone, with the Huron girls providing their annual late-season rise, both genders from Adrian leading the way, and Tecumseh’s boys and girls both having a breakout year.

Unlike many other regions, we have five meets of evidence between the two squads. Airport actually holds the lead in the standings, placing ahead of Huron on three of the five occasions, including the most recent Huron League Championship. A factor to consider here is the addition of Adrian and Tecumseh into the mix. Whereas Cameron Crane and Hunter Rodak were separated by a mere 5 spots in the Huron League final, the upfront strength of the Maples and Indians could drive a larger gap. If the Jets can pierce that, their strength in depth may pay off.

Boys

#13 Adrian

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Adrian	34	95+	95+	1st
2	Tecumseh	70		95+	2nd
3	New Boston Huron	105		69	3 to 5
4	Carleton Airport	115		27	3 to 5
5	Monroe Jefferson	140			4 to 6
6	Ypsilanti Community	156			3 to 8
7	Grosse Ile	195			6 to 10
8	Dundee	218			7 to 10
9	Riverview	221			7 to 10
10	Trenton	240			7 to 11
11	Flat Rock	300			10 to 13
12	Ida	306			10 to 13
13	Milan	318			11 to 13
14	Melvindale	433			14th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	1.5
2	10	Parker Smith	Adrian	2.7
3	12	Carter Fenner	Adrian	3.3
4	11	Eli Morris	Tecumseh	4.1
5	11	Easton Coscarelli	Adrian	4.4
6	10	Mason Tulik	Monroe Jefferson	7.6
7	11	Dempsey Barrett	Tecumseh	9.0
8	12	Landin Fisher	Adrian	9.1
9	11	Harrison Stamper	Tecumseh	10.0
10	11	Carson Scholz	Tecumseh	11.9
11	10	Mason Martin	Milan	12.2
12	12	Hunter Rodak	Carleton Airport	13.5
13	11	Nicholas Ranka	Grosse Ile	14.1
14	11	Lucas Zeckner	Adrian	14.6
15	11	Ben Kline	Ypsilanti Community	15.1
16	11	Carter Lee	Monroe Jefferson	15.6
17	9	Jackson Satterfield	Trenton	16.7
18	12	Tanner Kuhn	New Boston Huron	19.8
19	10	Adam Ibrahim	Riverview	21.1
20	12	Kadan Crist	Adrian	22.4
21	10	Daelin Ring	New Boston Huron	23.7
22	12	Hayden Bovair	Carleton Airport	24.2
23	11	Patrick Alt	Ypsilanti Community	24.6
24	10	Gabe Busen	Monroe Jefferson	25.5
25	11	Jacob Kuti	Carleton Airport	25.9
26	11	Carson Dennis	Riverview	26.0
27	10	Andrew Bell	Carleton Airport	26.2
28	11	Isaac Kraftson	Ypsilanti Community	27.0
29	9	Grady Marino	Carleton Airport	29.8
30	12	Garrett Patrick	New Boston Huron	30.1

Girls

#14 Adrian

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Adrian	40	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	New Boston Huron	62	3	95+	1 to 3
3	Tecumseh	94		95+	2 to 3
4	Carleton Airport	142			4 to 5
5	Grosse Ile	159			4 to 6
6	Trenton	167			4 to 7
7	Monroe Jefferson	202			7 to 9
8	Ida	205			6 to 9
9	Dundee	206			6 to 9
10	Milan	265			10 to 11
11	Ypsilanti Community	266			10 to 11
12	Flat Rock	302			12th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	1.1
2	11	Madison Petty	Adrian	2.0
3	11	Grace Pacheco	New Boston Huron	4.6
4	11	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	5.1
5	11	Ella Baker	Carleton Airport	5.9
6	11	Ella McCleery	Ypsilanti Community	6.3
7	11	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	8.6
8	9	Marina Warner	Grosse Ile	9.0
9	11	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton	9.4
10	9	Alexis Richards	Adrian	10.1
11	12	Ella McFarlane	Riverview	11.6
12	10	Zoey Cheney	New Boston Huron	11.9
13	12	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron	14.3
14	11	Alexis White	New Boston Huron	14.9
15	11	Virginia Barrett	Tecumseh	15.2
16	12	Maya Whelan	Tecumseh	17.1
17	10	Opal English	Tecumseh	18.0
18	11	Isa Vargo	New Boston Huron	20.8
19	10	Lana Benware	Ida	21.4
20	11	Avalina Williamson	Trenton	21.8
21	11	Klair Baker	Adrian	22.5
22	12	Haley Rucinski	Tecumseh	24.0
23	10	Abbey Ward	Carleton Airport	24.4
24	12	Lydia Richards	Dundee	27.4
25	9	Isabelle Stutzman	Adrian	28.1
26	11	Lea Rode	Ypsilanti Community	28.2
27	10	Madison Agocs	Carleton Airport	28.3
28	12	London Landini	Tecumseh	29.3
29	9	Haley Lancaster	Milan	29.4
30	11	Lila Somerset	Grosse Ile	29.7