Uncategorized – Michigan XC Speed Ratings

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Last year at both the regional and state level, these projections were as predictive and accurate as ever. Through totaling up all the odds of the top-3 teams, I anticipated 193 of the qualifiers would be correct come regional day. The projections bested that by one team, 194 correct qualifiers. Similar results came from the State Finals.

A change I made last year to shore up the projections was to filter out less important meets. These conference and weekday meets are great for building the database and showing the development of athletes who may not even run at the regional level, but they often are home to a runner’s slower efforts. All the important weekend meets are included. This same methodology is present here in 2026. One thing I noticed from looking back at ’25 is that early season meets weren’t adjusted highly enough. That has changed for 2026, although I’m not sure it’ll be a huge factor as those meets aren’t weighted that heavily at this point in the season.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race in October. This will attempt to account for injuries. There are also a few cases where I know a runner won’t be running the rest of the season.

Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.

Your D2 Regional Projections…

SUMMER PROJECTIONS
MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS

REGION 10

Any Big Battles?

Boys

#8 Petoskey
#23 Spring Lake

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Petoskey	46	95+	95+	1st
2	Spring Lake	103		95+	2 to 3
3	Fremont	124		94	2 to 4
4	Whitehall	156			3 to 7
5	Reed City	162			4 to 7
6	Cadillac	196			4 to 10
7	Gaylord	198			5 to 11
8	Big Rapids	209			6 to 11
9	Ludington	223			4 to 13
10	Howard City Tri-County	223			6 to 12
11	Fruitport	228			8 to 12
12	Clare	248			7 to 13
13	Muskegon Oakridge	254			7 to 13
14	Ogemaw Heights	428			14 to 15
15	Remus Chippewa Hills	436			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Robert Jazwinski III	Whitehall	1.0
2	12	Lukas Albright	Big Rapids	3.4
3	12	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	4.9
4	12	Jack Frentz	Petoskey	5.3
5	11	Christian Pavlige	Fruitport	5.5
6	12	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	5.7
7	12	Owen Adams	Spring Lake	6.9
8	12	Garrett Lansing	Petoskey	8.9
9	10	Colton Mulder	Cadillac	9.5
10	11	Rex Pumford	Whitehall	12.3
11	12	Carson Brey	Petoskey	12.4
12	11	Abraham Kiaunis	Reed City	14.1
13	12	Ryder Woodwyk	Spring Lake	15.4
14	11	Tate Smith	Fremont	15.4
15	10	Owen Young	Petoskey	15.7
16	12	Griffin Frentz	Petoskey	16.8
17	12	Mossen Green	Fremont	18.2
18	10	Dane Trask	Spring Lake	21.0
19	11	Tanner Dozier	Reed City	21.4
20	10	Noah Strother	Gaylord	22.0
21	12	Jayden Mueller	Muskegon Oakridge	22.5
22	9	Conrad Schwass	Ludington	22.9
23	11	Dylan Winskas	Fruitport	25.2
24	11	Isaac Vandlen	Spring Lake	28.3
25	11	Max Taylor	Fremont	28.5
26	11	Jacob Christoffersen	Fremont	31.0
27	10	David Strother	Gaylord	31.3
28	12	Tyler Schuster	Howard City Tri-County	31.6
29	12	Connor Schmidt	Clare	31.7
30	11	Fhoenix Stellard	Spring Lake	32.1

Girls

#13 Spring Lake
#20 Remus Chippewa Hills
#23 Clare
#25 Cadillac

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Spring Lake	78	78	95+	1 to 3
2	Remus Chippewa Hills	98	10	93	1 to 4
3	Clare	101	11	87	1 to 5
4	Cadillac	125		18	2 to 7
5	Ludington	146			4 to 8
6	Gaylord	155			5 to 8
7	Fruitport	156			4 to 8
8	Reed City	183			5 to 9
9	Petoskey	212			8 to 11
10	Whitehall	235			8 to 11
11	Fremont	236			8 to 11
12	Big Rapids	309			12th
13	Howard City Tri-County	396			13 to 14
14	Muskegon Oakridge	411			13 to 15
15	Ogemaw Heights	427			13 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Eliza Schwass	Ludington	1.7
2	12	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	2.3
3	9	Evelyn Goosen	Spring Lake	2.9
4	12	Zoe German	Fruitport	4.8
5	11	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	6.5
6	11	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	7.0
7	12	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	9.4
8	9	Cecelia Merrick	Gaylord	9.6
9	12	Cora Parker	Spring Lake	12.5
10	12	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City	13.9
11	9	Abigail Cooper	Spring Lake	13.9
12	12	Hallee Hervey	Reed City	15.4
13	9	Quinn Killian	Remus Chippewa Hills	15.8
14	9	Quinn Drake	Clare	17.9
15	11	Emma Stotzel	Clare	19.9
16	10	Evelayna Szajner	Gaylord	21.0
17	9	Addison Dekker	Remus Chippewa Hills	21.1
18	12	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	22.9
19	10	Hazel Cherney	Spring Lake	23.5
20	10	Conley Howard	Remus Chippewa Hills	23.7
21	11	Peyhton Beardsley	Fruitport	24.0
22	12	Lauren Leis	Clare	24.2
23	9	Brooklyn Kramer	Gaylord	24.5
24	12	Kira Manchip	Fremont	24.8
25	10	Myah Breuker	Fremont	26.5
26	9	Carlie Battle	Reed City	27.6
27	10	Aya Pateman	Petoskey	27.8
28	12	Gabrielle Chevez	Whitehall	28.9
29	10	Hailey Kuhn	Cadillac	29.4
30	10	Charly Braidwood	Spring Lake	29.5

REGION 11

Any Big Battles?

The Dutch looking to spring an upset on either side. They have fighters chances in each, perhaps moreso in the girls race.

After all, Holland has an 11^th-ranked girls squad. The strength of the Dutch lies in their blend of strength up front and numbers behind. Even missing Johanna Mulder for much of the fall, Holland has been able to find five other girls that’ve been sub-21. One of those is Olivia Weiss, who will definitely mix it up at the front of this race. It’ll be tough, as this may be the toughest girls region of any division. Holland Christian is the defending champ with no let up, Coopersville just won the RCA with Allendale right on their tail. Whomever makes it out will surely deserve it.

The boys have slightly lower odds, but have an easier road in terms of competition. Holland Christian’s boys are ranked #1, but beyond the Maroons, only Cedar Springs comes in as a ranked squad. To advance, the Dutch will need to turn in a performance similar to Portage, where Holland was able to place three boys in the low-17’s or faster, then back it up with two in the 18’s. That led Holland to a 17^th place finish, 21 points behind Grand Rapids Catholic Central. In a smaller field, perhaps the strength of the three lower sticks would be magnified.

Boys

#1 Holland Christian
#24 Cedar Springs

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Holland Christian	25	95+	95+	1st
2	Cedar Springs	99		95+	2 to 3
3	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	113		66	2 to 5
4	Holland	123		25	2 to 6
5	Coopersville	136		6	3 to 6
6	Hudsonville Unity Christian	144			3 to 7
7	Allendale	166			6 to 7
8	Sparta	204			8 to 9
9	South Haven	238			8 to 9
10	Allegan	274			10 to 11
11	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	304			10 to 11
12	Hamilton	343			12th
13	Wyoming Lee	408			13 to 14
14	Comstock Park	410			13 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	1.8
2	10	Grant Lampen	Holland Christian	3.0
3	9	Drew Franken	Holland Christian	3.7
4	12	Mason Hill	Allendale	4.8
5	10	Zander Stewart	Holland Christian	5.0
6	12	Cole Coffman	Holland Christian	6.2
7	10	Zach Diller	Holland Christian	7.3
8	11	Aiden Lambers	Holland	7.4
9	12	Alex Ten Haken	Hudsonville Unity Christian	9.1
10	12	Peyton Farrell	Cedar Springs	11.3
11	12	Rylan VanDenBeldt	Holland Christian	13.1
12	11	Cole Raymond	Coopersville	14.5
13	12	Kellen Chalupa	Allegan	15.1
14	10	James Elliott	Cedar Springs	15.9
15	11	Caelen Gray	Holland	16.7
16	11	Hagan Biehl	Sparta	17.0
17	11	Derek Bostrom	Holland Christian	17.5
18	12	Samuel Organ	Cedar Springs	18.1
19	10	Brycen Stewart	Allendale	19.3
20	9	Jack Schulte	Holland	19.6
21	11	Zane Molewyk	Coopersville	22.0
22	10	Cameron Howe	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	23.2
23	12	Nolan Wiens	South Haven	23.8
24	9	Nolan Richardson	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	24.2
25	12	Brandon Peterson	Coopersville	24.3
26	10	Leo Alivia	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	27.2
27	9	Hayden Woodwyk	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.3
28	10	Eli Schout	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.9
29	12	Tristan See	Cedar Springs	28.2
30	11	Braylon Bigorowski	Coopersville	29.6

Girls

#1 Holland Christian
#9 Coopersville
#10 Allendale
#11 Holland

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Holland Christian	33	95+	95+	1st
2	Coopersville	84		94	2 to 4
3	Allendale	95		63	2 to 4
4	Holland	97		43	2 to 4
5	Cedar Springs	136			5 to 6
6	Hudsonville Unity Christian	164			5 to 7
7	Sparta	167			6 to 7
8	Grand Rapids West Catholic	240			8 to 10
9	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	247			8 to 11
10	Hamilton	279			9 to 11
11	South Haven	288			9 to 11
12	Comstock Park	373			12 to 13
13	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	373			12 to 14
14	Wyoming Lee	409			13 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	1.1
2	11	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	2.7
3	10	Breslyn Klein	Coopersville	3.3
4	12	Mia May	Sparta	3.5
5	12	Olivia Weiss	Holland	5.5
6	12	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	6.2
7	12	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	6.7
8	9	Molly White	Holland Christian	8.7
9	12	Sawyer Reagan	Allendale	9.6
10	9	Anna Zietlow	Holland Christian	11.1
11	9	Molly Murphy	Holland	12.0
12	12	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	12.7
13	10	Addisyn Wood	Sparta	13.2
14	11	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	14.0
15	10	Mia Hill	Allendale	14.9
16	11	Annika Stob	Holland Christian	15.4
17	10	Tessa Nienhuis	Holland	18.5
18	10	Lauren Meyer	Allendale	19.2
19	12	Abby Noorman	Cedar Springs	19.5
20	12	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	21.8
21	12	Noelle Wielhouwer	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.8
22	9	Keira Garza	Grand Rapids West Catholic	23.8
23	11	Quinn McWilliams	Coopersville	24.2
24	12	Kylee Brose	Allendale	24.3
25	9	Halle Valliere	Cedar Springs	24.5
26	11	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs	28.1
27	11	Lexi Gibson	Holland	28.5
28	12	Lydia Nelson	Hamilton	29.9
29	12	Emory Smith	Cedar Springs	31.7
30	10	Katelyn Ashworth	Allendale	31.9

REGION 12

Any Big Battles?

Not particularly in terms of qualifiers, as usual Region 12 is comprised of extremely strong traditional powers such as East Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Christian, Forest Hills Eastern, and Grand Rapids South Christian. These folks should dominate as usual (I feel for you, Thornapple-Kellogg girls, perhaps the MHSAA can move you to Region 13 next year?).

There might be some drama as to who will be the winner in the girls race. Grand Rapids Christian has been on a roll lately, seemingly putting every girl in their roster into the 19’s in recent weeks. But South Christian has been known to rally for an upset here, as they did last fall. The Sailors certainly made a run at the Eagles back in early October at Otsego, hanging with GRC through four girls, but faltering to the Eagle depth. Whatever goes down, three teams capable of placing in the top-10 at MIS will likely advance.

Boys

#3 East Grand Rapids
#10 Grand Rapids Christian
#17 Forest Hills Eastern

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	East Grand Rapids	42	95+	95+	1st
2	Grand Rapids Christian	67		95+	2 to 3
3	Forest Hills Eastern	82		95+	2 to 3
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	125			4 to 5
5	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	147			4 to 5
6	GR West Michigan Aviation	196			6 to 7
7	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	210			6 to 7
8	Hopkins	265			8 to 11
9	Portland	272			8 to 12
10	Lake Odessa Lakewood	278			8 to 11
11	Hastings	302			9 to 14
12	Grand River Preparatory	307			8 to 14
13	Ionia	325			10 to 14
14	Wayland Union	327			11 to 14
15	Battle Creek Pennfield	387			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	1.5
2	11	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	2.2
3	12	Thomas Fisher	East Grand Rapids	3.8
4	11	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	3.8
5	11	Grayson Michels	Forest Hills Eastern	4.6
6	12	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	8.1
7	11	Beckett Kneisel	East Grand Rapids	8.2
8	12	Ben Verlin	Grand Rapids South Christian	9.7
9	10	Hudson Kemper	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.0
10	11	Jacob Kornoely	GR West Michigan Aviation	10.6
11	12	Lucas Aardema	East Grand Rapids	10.9
12	12	Josiah Rozema	Grand Rapids South Christian	12.8
13	11	Donnie Richmond	Portland	14.3
14	11	Kash Moored	Hopkins	14.6
15	9	Bennett Piippo	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	16.0
16	12	Elias DeJong	Grand Rapids Christian	17.0
17	11	Tate VanDaele	Forest Hills Eastern	20.3
18	9	Bennett Teitsma	Grand Rapids Christian	21.5
19	10	Owen Bremer	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	21.7
20	9	Evan Occhipinti	Forest Hills Eastern	22.1
21	10	Aaron Martinson	Portland	22.7
22	12	Sean Wilson-Ross	East Grand Rapids	22.9
23	12	Easton McCloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	23.2
24	0	Henry Straveler	East Grand Rapids	23.2
25	9	Wesley Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	24.6
26	12	Mason Fein	Wayland Union	26.9
27	10	Luke Worley	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	27.4
28	12	Riley Day	Forest Hills Eastern	27.7
29	12	Kaden Rohrbacher	Lake Odessa Lakewood	28.1
30	12	Chase Woller-Skar	East Grand Rapids	29.0

Girls

#3 Grand Rapids Christian
#5 East Grand Rapids
#6 Grand Rapids South Christian
#15 Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Grand Rapids Christian	59	76	95+	1 to 3
2	Grand Rapids South Christian	69	20	95+	1 to 3
3	East Grand Rapids	78	4	95+	1 to 3
4	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	115			4th
5	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	190			5 to 8
6	Hastings	204			5 to 10
7	Forest Hills Eastern	209			5 to 9
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	210			5 to 10
9	Wayland Union	226			6 to 10
10	Hopkins	228			7 to 10
11	Ionia	269			7 to 11
12	Grand River Preparatory	356			12 to 13
13	Portland	364			12 to 14
14	Battle Creek Pennfield	391			13 to 15
15	Lake Odessa Lakewood	404			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Caroline Randall	Hastings	1.0
2	11	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	2.4
3	10	Lily VanEyk	Grand Rapids South Christian	5.6
4	9	Emi Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	5.7
5	11	Anneliese Passchier	East Grand Rapids	6.4
6	12	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	8.0
7	10	Noelle Hulst	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.0
8	12	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	10.3
9	11	Joy Van Wyk	Grand Rapids Christian	11.7
10	12	Ahna Woltjer	GR West Michigan Aviation	11.8
11	9	Carleigh Gearhart	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	13.4
12	12	Lillian Dewey	Hopkins	13.8
13	9	Charlotte Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	14.0
14	11	Eva Lindstrom	Grand Rapids Christian	14.5
15	10	Eliana Zwiep	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	15.0
16	11	Alena Sportel	Grand Rapids Christian	15.6
17	11	Abree VanDenBrink	Wayland Union	16.0
18	11	Maggie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	17.1
19	11	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern	17.5
20	12	Meghan-Jane Skidmore	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	17.6
21	12	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	18.4
22	11	Caroline Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	19.6
23	9	Claire Setsma	Grand Rapids Christian	20.4
24	11	Vivienne Conflitti	Forest Hills Eastern	20.7
25	10	Hailey Moorman	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.0
26	10	Isabelle Oostema	Grand Rapids South Christian	28.6
27	10	Annalise Wiltjer	Grand Rapids South Christian	29.4
28	11	Ava Benedict	Ionia	29.5
29	10	Lucy Straveler	East Grand Rapids	29.5
30	9	Lenna Wendt	Hastings	29.9

REGION 13

Any Big Battles?

There really are some good ones across both genders.

For the boys, it’s the fact that any one of three teams could win the thing. Both Otsego and Vicksburg provided an example of this in early October at the Bulldog Invite. Vicksburg prevailed, bolstered by the strong performances of Hunter Smith and Caiden Caswell, though the home team found their varsity scorers all in the 16’s. Both quality performances of regional-winning variety. St. Joseph has a case, too, evidenced by the SMAC Championship and Sturgis that saw the Bears average sub-17 across their top-five. Heck, even Paw Paw has a case, splitting Vicksburg and Otsego in the Wolverine Conference final.

With Otsego’s elite girls team, winning is out of the question for the women’s field. But qualifying spots are up for grabs. St. Joseph has been improving all fall and Plainwell has two low-sticks, needing to score three. If Sturgis should pull the upset, they’ll need to summon an effort similar to the Bulldog Invite, where six Trojan girls hit sub-21. Filtering for Region 13 teams there, Sturgis actually beat Plainwell, but in a larger field, Natalya Hoffman and Mai Nguyen could have a tremendous impact.

Boys

#11 Vicksburg
#12 Otsego
#14 St. Joseph
#19 Paw Paw

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Vicksburg	74	57	95+	1 to 4
2	Otsego	83	19	95+	1 to 3
3	St. Joseph	89	22	80	1 to 4
4	Paw Paw	110		23	2 to 5
5	Battle Creek Harper Creek	151			4 to 6
6	Edwardsburg	162			5 to 7
7	Three Rivers	188			6 to 8
8	Plainwell	218			7 to 10
9	Niles	242			8 to 11
10	Sturgis	262			8 to 12
11	Marshall	273			9 to 12
12	Coldwater	283			10 to 13
13	Berrien Springs	316			12 to 13
14	Stevensville Lakeshore	380			14th
15	Dowagiac Union	463			15th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	1.7
2	11	Ethan Ferguson	Edwardsburg	5.1
3	11	David Kore	Three Rivers	5.7
4	12	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	5.7
5	12	Seth Randall	St. Joseph	6.1
6	12	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	7.2
7	12	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	7.5
8	11	Carson Wiersbe	St. Joseph	8.2
9	12	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek	10.1
10	11	Landon Lindsay	Paw Paw	10.3
11	10	George Whitaker	Otsego	10.4
12	12	Grayson Campbell	Vicksburg	11.1
13	11	Grant Krause	Paw Paw	12.4
14	11	Kaleb Koestner	Otsego	15.3
15	10	John Brickley	Niles	15.7
16	12	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	16.0
17	11	Matthew LaPorte	St. Joseph	16.4
18	10	Ryan Long	Otsego	17.5
19	9	Ethan VanHouten	Otsego	18.2
20	11	Reed Gates	Edwardsburg	19.8
21	12	Gunnar Djerf	Otsego	21.9
22	10	Cooper Monroe	Battle Creek Harper Creek	24.4
23	9	Easton Netzley	St. Joseph	25.5
24	12	William Justice	Plainwell	29.4
25	10	Landan Jenkins	Battle Creek Harper Creek	30.5
26	9	Caleb Carrington	Niles	30.8
27	10	Elijah Harris	Three Rivers	30.8
28	9	Dexter Parsons	Vicksburg	31.7
29	12	Carson Summerfield	Vicksburg	32.0
30	11	Braiden Schuh	Edwardsburg	32.2

Girls

#2 Otsego
#19 Plainwell
#21 St. Joseph
#26 Sturgis

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Otsego	32	95+	95+	1st
2	Plainwell	109		88	2 to 4
3	St. Joseph	121		65	2 to 6
4	Sturgis	129		38	2 to 7
5	Stevensville Lakeshore	157			4 to 7
6	Battle Creek Harper Creek	168			3 to 8
7	Paw Paw	168			3 to 8
8	Three Rivers	198			5 to 10
9	Edwardsburg	213			7 to 10
10	Vicksburg	248			8 to 11
11	Marshall	303			10 to 13
12	Niles	315			11 to 14
13	Berrien Springs	350			11 to 14
14	Coldwater	351			12 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Natalya Hoffman	Plainwell	1.2
2	11	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell	3.3
3	11	Grace Leman	Edwardsburg	4.8
4	10	Addelyn Sabatke	Otsego	4.9
5	10	Adelyn Verhage	Otsego	6.1
6	10	Alayna Verhage	Otsego	7.0
7	9	Addison Andress	Otsego	8.0
8	12	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	8.1
9	10	Lydia Dwyer	Stevensville Lakeshore	9.0
10	10	Taylee Fox	Otsego	10.7
11	9	Alice Starkey	Sturgis	14.0
12	12	Madeline Goodwin	Otsego	14.5
13	10	Vittoria Perucchetti	St. Joseph	14.7
14	12	Abigail Luckman	Stevensville Lakeshore	15.8
15	11	Avery Huff	Paw Paw	17.0
16	10	Kenna Koole	Vicksburg	17.3
17	11	Alaina Dillon	Marshall	18.2
18	9	Taylor Schulte	St. Joseph	20.8
19	10	Lulu Park	Sturgis	21.5
20	12	Marley Momany	Stevensville Lakeshore	22.1
21	11	Layla Gableman	Edwardsburg	23.5
22	11	Molly Bruggink	Plainwell	24.7
23	11	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	27.3
24	10	Alaina Kirkpatrick	Battle Creek Harper Creek	28.9
25	9	Kloey Osborn	Three Rivers	30.2
26	9	Leilani Machuca	Sturgis	30.7
27	9	Adelyn Richardson	St. Joseph	30.9
28	12	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	31.1
29	9	Lucy Schwartz	Battle Creek Harper Creek	31.5
30	9	Lauren Kane	Three Rivers	34.1

REGION 14

Any Big Battles?

The question to me – will Linden or Parma Western come into DeWitt’s lair and bring home a regional trophy? The Panther boys and girls could make it difficult. The girls were a surprise winner at Greater Lansing, knocking off potential D1 qualifiers and D3 champions. Clara Cook was a terror up front, then their 2^nd-5^th held serve with the best that others had to offer. The boys are coming off perhaps their best outing of the year, placing 2^nd in the CAAC Blue, packing up between 16:45 and 17:25.

But the odds are stacked against DeWitt. Racing here in early October, Parma Western began their ascent into the upper echelon of D2, placing all five scorers ahead of DeWitt’s 1^st boy. Linden wreaked havoc as well, opening up an overwhelming gap at the final scoring slot. Past results vs. home team improvement and home course advantage.

Boys

#5 Parma Western
#15 DeWitt
#16 Owosso
#21 Haslett
#26 Williamston

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Parma Western	45	90	95+	1 to 2
2	DeWitt	67	8	95+	1 to 3
3	Owosso	79		76	2 to 4
4	Haslett	91		22	3 to 5
5	Williamston	109			4 to 5
6	St. Johns	174			6 to 7
7	Linden	216			6 to 9
8	Corunna	221			7 to 9
9	Lake Fenton	256			8 to 10
10	Jackson Northwest	274			8 to 10
11	Charlotte	333			11 to 12
12	Eaton Rapids	356			11 to 13
13	Fowlerville	367			11 to 13
14	Lansing Sexton	423			14th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Logan Cristian	Parma Western	1.3
2	11	Liam Dewitt	Haslett	2.9
3	11	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	4.9
4	10	Leland Sowle	Parma Western	5.6
5	10	Leonidas Erfourth	Owosso	7.3
6	9	Braysen Kramer	DeWitt	8.0
7	11	Isaiah Cates	Haslett	8.0
8	11	Jackson Butts	Lake Fenton	9.1
9	9	Spencer Sobak	Owosso	10.6
10	12	Ryan Good	Parma Western	11.1
11	11	Roan VanSumeren	Parma Western	11.8
12	9	Colin Branch	DeWitt	12.9
13	11	Teddy Weber	Williamston	15.0
14	12	Will Chelotti	DeWitt	15.6
15	11	Brady Rappuhn	Owosso	16.0
16	12	Caleb Lynd	Parma Western	16.7
17	10	Livio Muzzin	DeWitt	16.8
18	11	Alec Hoy	St. Johns	17.2
19	9	Sterling Burnie	DeWitt	17.8
20	10	Gracin Zelski	DeWitt	19.8
21	10	Max Bobeda	DeWitt	22.6
22	12	Sawyer Zeman	Haslett	22.9
23	11	Christian LeConte	Owosso	23.0
24	10	Micah Good	Parma Western	23.5
25	9	Luke Weber	Williamston	23.8
26	12	Ariston Dallas	Owosso	24.1
27	12	Kodi Rose	Haslett	24.4
28	10	Lucas Heid	Corunna	28.3
29	11	Elliott Cook	St. Johns	30.6
30	9	Peyton Raymer	Williamston	30.6

Girls

#4 Linden
#7 DeWitt
#16 Williamston

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Linden	47	86	95+	1 to 2
2	DeWitt	56	14	95+	1 to 2
3	Williamston	98		95+	3rd
4	Haslett	132			4th
5	Charlotte	171			5 to 8
6	Parma Western	173			5 to 8
7	Owosso	188			5 to 9
8	Lake Fenton	196			5 to 10
9	St. Johns	201			5 to 10
10	Fowlerville	226			9 to 10
11	Corunna	312			11 to 12
12	Jackson Northwest	314			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.3
2	9	Clara Cook	DeWitt	2.0
3	12	Addison Josephson	Linden	3.4
4	11	Courtney Floeter	Linden	4.5
5	9	Annabel Buggia	Williamston	4.6
6	11	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	5.8
7	11	Natalie Hayes	DeWitt	7.4
8	11	Abby Crandell	Owosso	10.8
9	12	Colette Charchut	Haslett	11.3
10	12	Anna Soltis	DeWitt	13.2
11	11	Bridget Fullerton	Parma Western	13.4
12	10	Brooklyn Takagishi	DeWitt	13.9
13	9	Kennedy Kolodica	Linden	14.1
14	9	Ella Bahle	Williamston	14.6
15	12	Avery Silvas	Charlotte	15.9
16	12	Sidney Shepard	Linden	16.2
17	10	Emma Durling	Linden	16.4
18	11	Molly Roberts	Linden	16.6
19	12	Elliana Hufton	Lake Fenton	18.5
20	12	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	19.9
21	10	Dakota Budd	Haslett	21.4
22	10	Cecilia Kelly	Williamston	22.4
23	9	Violette Goodrich	Charlotte	23.8
24	11	Clara Marschall	Fowlerville	24.3
25	10	Madisyn Blair	Parma Western	25.0
26	11	Emma Cook	DeWitt	26.0
27	12	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	26.8
28	9	Penny Ewald	Owosso	28.5
29	11	Rory Doepker	DeWitt	28.9
30	11	Lilee Elliott	DeWitt	29.4

REGION 15

Any Big Battles?

The four teams that are in the running for two spots in the girls race. None of the squads from Shepherd, Freeland, Frankenmuth, or Flint Powers Catholic are ranked, but that’s no mind, state spots are on the line. The home Bluejays have moved up the most over the past month. The JPC streak may have faltered, but Shepherd has had some of their depth pieces undergo massive transformations. One in particular is Annalee Takalo, who dropped an enormous amount of time at Mt. Pleasant’s Blue and Gold Invite. Frankenmuth’s odds have also increased, the Eagles coming off one of their better efforts of the year at the final TVC Jamboree, four ‘Muth girls sub-22. Freeland has been steady all October and has the frontrunnin’ Clara Kaczor as a reliable low-stick. And I wouldn’t count out Flint Powers, who a month back here at Bluejay had their best performance of the fall, placing 2^nd in the Blue division with three girls sub-21.

Boys

#4 Flint Powers Catholic
#7 Alma
#9 Shepherd
#27 Freeland

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Flint Powers Catholic	47	84	95+	1 to 2
2	Alma	63	9	95+	1 to 3
3	Shepherd	74	7	95+	1 to 4
4	Freeland	121			3 to 4
5	Saginaw Swan Valley	181			5 to 6
6	Frankenmuth	189			5 to 6
7	Clio	238			7 to 10
8	Birch Run	247			7 to 10
9	Bay City John Glenn	258			8 to 11
10	North Branch	260			7 to 11
11	Essexville-Garber	282			7 to 12
12	Goodrich	287			8 to 12
13	Flint Kearsley	351			13 to 15
14	Bay City Central	358			13 to 15
15	Saginaw United	379			13 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	1.4
2	12	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	3.6
3	12	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	4.7
4	12	Nick Parker	Frankenmuth	4.8
5	12	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	5.6
6	12	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	7.0
7	9	Connor Charboneau	Saginaw Swan Valley	7.9
8	10	Nico Lebron	Alma	10.2
9	11	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic	10.4
10	11	Samuel Johnson	Alma	11.4
11	12	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	13.2
12	11	Alex Iordanou	Flint Powers Catholic	14.3
13	11	Alexander Iordanou	Flint Powers Catholic	16.4
14	12	Drew Davis	Shepherd	16.4
15	12	Jakin Whitney	Shepherd	16.9
16	12	Jackson Horn	Freeland	18.1
17	10	Ryan Brown	Freeland	18.4
18	11	Griffin Solano	Flint Powers Catholic	19.7
19	9	Camden Clevenger	Goodrich	20.4
20	9	Caleb Cahoon	Shepherd	21.7
21	9	Carter Minnis	Freeland	21.9
22	9	Daniel Newman	Flint Powers Catholic	21.9
23	9	Reece Lorencz	Goodrich	22.2
24	12	Braeden Conger	Frankenmuth	24.2
25	10	Connor Miller	Alma	24.2
26	10	Charlie Fields	North Branch	24.5
27	12	William McDonald	Shepherd	26.7
28	12	Spencer Dammann	Saginaw Swan Valley	28.1
29	11	Charles Murray	Bay City John Glenn	29.4
30	12	Devlin Johnson	Freeland	29.9

Girls

#12 Goodrich

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Goodrich	48	95+	95+	1st
2	Shepherd	87		89	2 to 4
3	Freeland	90		78	2 to 4
4	Flint Powers Catholic	107		16	2 to 6
5	Frankenmuth	109		17	2 to 6
6	Alma	144			5 to 7
7	Birch Run	175			6 to 8
8	Saginaw Swan Valley	186			6 to 9
9	Essexville-Garber	232			8 to 10
10	Clio	270			9 to 11
11	Bay City John Glenn	323			11 to 12
12	North Branch	324			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	1.3
2	12	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	2.3
3	12	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	2.9
4	12	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	5.2
5	12	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	6.1
6	11	Cailyn Baker	Shepherd	6.2
7	11	Danica Redes	Shepherd	7.0
8	11	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic	7.3
9	12	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	8.4
10	11	Victoria Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	11.2
11	12	Aubrey Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	11.6
12	9	Jade McCormick	Flint Powers Catholic	15.3
13	9	Emma Parker	Frankenmuth	15.6
14	11	Sarah Warner	Shepherd	16.3
15	10	Grace Hancock	Alma	17.5
16	12	Claire Arnold	Essexville-Garber	17.9
17	10	Grace Kloha	Freeland	18.4
18	10	Addyson Campbell	Goodrich	19.5
19	10	Katie Niederquell	Freeland	20.1
20	9	Molly Scott	Goodrich	20.4
21	10	Sevarah Markham	Alma	21.8
22	11	Kinsley Compau	Frankenmuth	23.1
23	12	Olivia Mielke	Freeland	23.9
24	9	Tatum McGill	Alma	24.8
25	11	Sofia Sporman	Flint Kearsley	26.7
26	12	Annalee Takalo	Shepherd	27.5
27	10	Addison King	Frankenmuth	29.0
28	10	Sarah Diffin	Freeland	29.1
29	9	Kenley Townsend	Saginaw Swan Valley	32.4
30	9	Sydney Lane	Clio	32.8

REGION 16

Any Big Battles?

I wish I could say there’s been some clarity after the past month, but I’ve got nothing.

At the mid-season mark, here’s what the projections showed:

Chelsea – 2^nd, 72 points
Detroit Country Day – 3^rd, 81 points
Dearborn Divine Child – 4^th, 89 points
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard – 5^th, 91 points

Right now, it’s:

Chelsea – 3^rd, 75 points
Detroit Country Day – 2^nd, 75 points
Dearborn Divine Child – 4^th, 86 points
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard – 5^th, 95 points

If you squint closely, you might notice that Country Day and Divine Child have moved up slightly. Country Day has one notable race in that timeframe, a CHSL Bishop Championship where four Yellowjackets ran the equivalent of a sub-17 on the tough Possum Hollow track. Divine Child was also present there, placing one spot behind DCD, putting forth a state-qualifying quality effort. Their next race was at Gabriel Richard, where the Falcons succumbed to both Chelsea and Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard.

The projections love Chelsea because of the Bulldogs’ ability to stay consistent, many of their ratings with little variance. Country Day and Divine Child go hand-in-hand, with Country Day performing slightly better recently. Gabriel Richard is the wildcard, with their home invite being their finest effort of the year, a chance that the Fighting Irish could be still rising and pull off a shocker.

Boys

#2 Pinckney
#18 Detroit Country Day
#20 Chelsea
#22 Dearborn Divine Child
#25 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Pinckney	26	95+	95+	1st
2	Detroit Country Day	72		81	2 to 4
3	Chelsea	75		84	2 to 4
4	Dearborn Divine Child	86		26	2 to 5
5	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	95		9	3 to 5
6	Grosse Pointe North	201			6 to 7
7	Detroit Voyageur	224			6 to 7
8	Detroit Cody	281			8 to 9
9	Detroit East English	317			9 to 11
10	Warren Lincoln	318			9 to 12
11	Eastpointe	323			9 to 12
12	Garden City	339			9 to 13
13	Detroit Henry Ford	365			12 to 15
14	Center Line	377			13 to 15
15	Detroit Southeastern Tech	404			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	1.5
2	11	Jack Hincks	Detroit Country Day	2.4
3	12	Lincoln Reed	Pinckney	3.1
4	12	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	3.5
5	10	Cash Wilds	Pinckney	7.0
6	10	John Rochowiak	Pinckney	7.0
7	10	Matt McFall	Pinckney	8.2
8	12	Samuel Clifton	Chelsea	8.5
9	12	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	11.7
10	10	Hari Varma	Detroit Country Day	12.3
11	11	Daniel Reifenberg	Dearborn Divine Child	13.6
12	10	Wyatt Jespersen	Pinckney	13.6
13	11	Landen Bermudez	Dearborn Divine Child	14.0
14	11	Ethan Bray	Detroit Country Day	14.2
15	12	Jonathan Rapoza	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.3
16	12	Grant Goodwin	Dearborn Divine Child	14.5
17	12	Owen Thorburn	Chelsea	17.2
18	11	Ben Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	17.6
19	12	Joseph Arriola	Dearborn Divine Child	18.5
20	12	Leo Alafita	Chelsea	19.0
21	12	Caleb Maciag	Pinckney	19.2
22	9	Dominic Cai	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.4
23	12	Conley Poole	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.7
24	10	John Fedewa	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.7
25	12	Jacob Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child	26.5
26	12	Preston Vasas	Chelsea	27.6
27	11	Zachary Barszczowski	Dearborn Divine Child	28.8
28	11	George Fredenberg	Chelsea	29.5
29	10	Ellis Carmichael	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	30.1
30	9	Charlie Fredenberg	Chelsea	31.1

Girls

#17 Pinckney
#24 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Pinckney	49	81	95+	1 to 3
2	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	59	16	95+	1 to 3
3	Farmington Hills Mercy	67	3	95+	1 to 3
4	Dearborn Divine Child	106			4 to 5
5	Chelsea	114			4 to 5
6	Grosse Pointe North	139			6 to 7
7	Detroit Country Day	158			6 to 7
8	Garden City	252			8th
9	Detroit Southeastern Tech	279			9th
10	Detroit Cody	319			10th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	1.0
2	11	Maya Hammoud	Detroit Country Day	3.6
3	11	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney	3.9
4	11	Elizabeth Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	4.0
5	9	Mary Hickey	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	6.3
6	12	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	6.4
7	12	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	6.9
8	11	Grace Bedner	Farmington Hills Mercy	7.5
9	11	Ainslie Carter	Farmington Hills Mercy	9.0
10	9	Hailey Baltzell	Pinckney	9.5
11	10	Jordane Falvey	Dearborn Divine Child	12.4
12	9	Gabriella Diaz	Dearborn Divine Child	13.0
13	11	Ella Trueman	Dearborn Divine Child	14.1
14	12	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.5
15	12	Rose Buonerba	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.7
16	11	Kaylynne Baltzell	Pinckney	15.7
17	12	Alexis Adelman	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	17.6
18	9	Wilhelmina VanderWerp	Grosse Pointe North	18.1
19	11	Abigail Adams	Pinckney	19.7
20	9	Noelle Lyon	Grosse Pointe North	20.4
21	10	JJ Lukas	Farmington Hills Mercy	21.5
22	12	Megan Welch	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	21.9
23	12	Sofia Dussan	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	22.7
24	10	Kathryn Dunn	Chelsea	23.6
25	12	Persephone Berg	Chelsea	25.5
26	10	Maddy Robison	Farmington Hills Mercy	27.9
27	10	Addison Leschuk	Chelsea	28.2
28	11	Madeline Barringer	Farmington Hills Mercy	28.9
29	12	Davea Crowe	Pinckney	29.7
30	12	Sofia Razny	Farmington Hills Mercy	29.9

REGION 17

Any Big Battles?

Perhaps Cranbrook-Kingswood’s girls can continue their rise and advance to race another week. The Cranes were projected 7^th in the Mid-Season Projections and have risen to 4^th. They can give thanks to both Diya Goyal and Stella Handel, each of whom have improved markedly since mid-season. Both are fresh off shiny new PR’s earned at Larry Steeb, 19:57 and 20:25 respectively. Add Zahiya Khan into the lineup and mix with the frontrunnin’ Katherine Estes and they’ve got a chance.

Of course, they’ll have to crack a Macomb Lutheran North squad that’s made a living on this course. The Mustangs have ran here on a few occasions, and have put in their best efforts each time out. The most recent came at the BWAC Championship, where all five LN scorers were able to cross under 21:00, contributing to a team championship.

Boys

#8 Holly

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Holly	31	95+	95+	1st
2	Marysville	104		95+	2 to 3
3	Yale	109		95+	2 to 4
4	Croswell-Lexington	150			4 to 8
5	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	155			3 to 8
6	Macomb Lutheran North	159			4 to 8
7	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	160			4 to 8
8	St. Clair	183			5 to 9
9	Armada	228			9 to 10
10	Imlay City	243			8 to 12
11	Madison Heights Lamphere	274			10 to 12
12	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	302			10 to 13
13	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	348			12 to 13

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Broden Ladd	Holly	1.1
2	11	Cole Heikka	Holly	2.5
3	12	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	3.6
4	12	Trevor Murphy	Holly	5.1
5	12	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	5.3
6	11	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	6.4
7	12	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	6.7
8	10	Caleb McBride	Marysville	8.2
9	11	Elliot Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	9.1
10	11	Joshua Byrtus	Holly	10.4
11	11	Brady VanConant	Yale	12.5
12	11	Joshua Behrend	Holly	14.0
13	11	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond	14.5
14	12	Wyatt Bovensiep	Auburn Hills Avondale	16.1
15	10	Travis Murphy	Holly	16.2
16	9	Noah Miller	Yale	16.6
17	11	Griffin Kreger	St. Clair	17.0
18	12	Brendan Koza	Marysville	17.4
19	9	Weston Rutallie	Marysville	19.6
20	10	Ben Socia	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	21.3
21	11	Logan Carrier	Yale	22.2
22	9	Alexander Bertucci	Holly	24.3
23	11	Karsten Martin	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	25.6
24	10	Andrew Yousif	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	27.2
25	10	Colt Truscott	Croswell-Lexington	29.7
26	11	Edward Marshall	Armada	30.0
27	12	Mason Russell	Imlay City	30.1
28	11	Alexander Repp	Croswell-Lexington	31.1
29	10	Jack Abdelnour	Macomb Lutheran North	31.3
30	10	Joseph Aramouni	Madison Heights Lamphere	32.7

Girls

#8 Bloomfield Hills Marian
#18 Holly
#22 Macomb Lutheran North

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Bloomfield Hills Marian	58	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Holly	85		95+	2 to 3
3	Macomb Lutheran North	89	3	81	1 to 5
4	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	124		15	2 to 7
5	Armada	133		6	3 to 8
6	Yale	153			4 to 8
7	St. Clair	168			5 to 9
8	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	187			5 to 10
9	Croswell-Lexington	193			6 to 9
10	Marysville	252			9 to 10
11	Warren Regina	300			11 to 12
12	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	311			11 to 12
13	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	434			13 to 15
14	Imlay City	451			13 to 15
15	Richmond	451			13 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Julia Bambach	Holly	1.3
2	12	Maddie Lindley	Holly	1.7
3	12	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	5.3
4	10	Katherine Estes	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	5.9
5	11	Chloe Boright	Macomb Lutheran North	6.0
6	9	Marian Byrd	Bloomfield Hills Marian	6.4
7	11	Saige Cole	Yale	6.5
8	9	Josephine Humphrey	Bloomfield Hills Marian	9.4
9	9	Layla Tedder	Armada	11.8
10	12	Lucille Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	12.6
11	11	Gabby Schuff	Bloomfield Hills Marian	13.1
12	10	Claire Albrecht	Armada	14.3
13	11	Zahiya Khan	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	14.6
14	11	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	17.5
15	10	Lyla Eidson	Auburn Hills Avondale	18.7
16	12	Flora Ramos	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	19.4
17	10	Kamille Fitzpatrick	Armada	21.0
18	10	Leah Murchie	Holly	21.3
19	11	Lucy Gump	Macomb Lutheran North	21.4
20	10	Katelyn Schweihofer	Yale	21.9
21	9	Abby Dietzel	Marysville	22.7
22	10	Melanie Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	22.8
23	11	Maria Burlingame	Bloomfield Hills Marian	23.3
24	12	Eliza Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	23.5
25	9	Izzy Runevitch	Holly	23.5
26	12	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	25.0
27	11	Alayna Smith	Bloomfield Hills Marian	27.3
28	12	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	29.1
29	11	Stella Handel	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	30.7
30	10	Rose Hill	St. Clair	30.9

REGION 18

Any Big Battles?

Carleton Airport vs. New Boston Huron for the final boys qualifying spot. Most of the other spots seem set in stone, with the Huron girls providing their annual late-season rise, both genders from Adrian leading the way, and Tecumseh’s boys and girls both having a breakout year.

Unlike many other regions, we have five meets of evidence between the two squads. Airport actually holds the lead in the standings, placing ahead of Huron on three of the five occasions, including the most recent Huron League Championship. A factor to consider here is the addition of Adrian and Tecumseh into the mix. Whereas Cameron Crane and Hunter Rodak were separated by a mere 5 spots in the Huron League final, the upfront strength of the Maples and Indians could drive a larger gap. If the Jets can pierce that, their strength in depth may pay off.

Boys

#13 Adrian

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Adrian	34	95+	95+	1st
2	Tecumseh	70		95+	2nd
3	New Boston Huron	105		69	3 to 5
4	Carleton Airport	115		27	3 to 5
5	Monroe Jefferson	140			4 to 6
6	Ypsilanti Community	156			3 to 8
7	Grosse Ile	195			6 to 10
8	Dundee	218			7 to 10
9	Riverview	221			7 to 10
10	Trenton	240			7 to 11
11	Flat Rock	300			10 to 13
12	Ida	306			10 to 13
13	Milan	318			11 to 13
14	Melvindale	433			14th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	1.5
2	10	Parker Smith	Adrian	2.7
3	12	Carter Fenner	Adrian	3.3
4	11	Eli Morris	Tecumseh	4.1
5	11	Easton Coscarelli	Adrian	4.4
6	10	Mason Tulik	Monroe Jefferson	7.6
7	11	Dempsey Barrett	Tecumseh	9.0
8	12	Landin Fisher	Adrian	9.1
9	11	Harrison Stamper	Tecumseh	10.0
10	11	Carson Scholz	Tecumseh	11.9
11	10	Mason Martin	Milan	12.2
12	12	Hunter Rodak	Carleton Airport	13.5
13	11	Nicholas Ranka	Grosse Ile	14.1
14	11	Lucas Zeckner	Adrian	14.6
15	11	Ben Kline	Ypsilanti Community	15.1
16	11	Carter Lee	Monroe Jefferson	15.6
17	9	Jackson Satterfield	Trenton	16.7
18	12	Tanner Kuhn	New Boston Huron	19.8
19	10	Adam Ibrahim	Riverview	21.1
20	12	Kadan Crist	Adrian	22.4
21	10	Daelin Ring	New Boston Huron	23.7
22	12	Hayden Bovair	Carleton Airport	24.2
23	11	Patrick Alt	Ypsilanti Community	24.6
24	10	Gabe Busen	Monroe Jefferson	25.5
25	11	Jacob Kuti	Carleton Airport	25.9
26	11	Carson Dennis	Riverview	26.0
27	10	Andrew Bell	Carleton Airport	26.2
28	11	Isaac Kraftson	Ypsilanti Community	27.0
29	9	Grady Marino	Carleton Airport	29.8
30	12	Garrett Patrick	New Boston Huron	30.1

Girls

#14 Adrian

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Adrian	40	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	New Boston Huron	62	3	95+	1 to 3
3	Tecumseh	94		95+	2 to 3
4	Carleton Airport	142			4 to 5
5	Grosse Ile	159			4 to 6
6	Trenton	167			4 to 7
7	Monroe Jefferson	202			7 to 9
8	Ida	205			6 to 9
9	Dundee	206			6 to 9
10	Milan	265			10 to 11
11	Ypsilanti Community	266			10 to 11
12	Flat Rock	302			12th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	1.1
2	11	Madison Petty	Adrian	2.0
3	11	Grace Pacheco	New Boston Huron	4.6
4	11	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	5.1
5	11	Ella Baker	Carleton Airport	5.9
6	11	Ella McCleery	Ypsilanti Community	6.3
7	11	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	8.6
8	9	Marina Warner	Grosse Ile	9.0
9	11	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton	9.4
10	9	Alexis Richards	Adrian	10.1
11	12	Ella McFarlane	Riverview	11.6
12	10	Zoey Cheney	New Boston Huron	11.9
13	12	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron	14.3
14	11	Alexis White	New Boston Huron	14.9
15	11	Virginia Barrett	Tecumseh	15.2
16	12	Maya Whelan	Tecumseh	17.1
17	10	Opal English	Tecumseh	18.0
18	11	Isa Vargo	New Boston Huron	20.8
19	10	Lana Benware	Ida	21.4
20	11	Avalina Williamson	Trenton	21.8
21	11	Klair Baker	Adrian	22.5
22	12	Haley Rucinski	Tecumseh	24.0
23	10	Abbey Ward	Carleton Airport	24.4
24	12	Lydia Richards	Dundee	27.4
25	9	Isabelle Stutzman	Adrian	28.1
26	11	Lea Rode	Ypsilanti Community	28.2
27	10	Madison Agocs	Carleton Airport	28.3
28	12	London Landini	Tecumseh	29.3
29	9	Haley Lancaster	Milan	29.4
30	11	Lila Somerset	Grosse Ile	29.7

Uncategorized

2026 Regional Projections: Division Three

October 27, 2026October 27, 2026 mixcspeedratings

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Your D3 Regional Projections…

SUMMER PROJECTIONS
MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS

REGION 19

Any Big Battles?

Grayling opened the season projected in the 3^rd slot, the Vikings were present there a few weeks back, and they’re predicted to be in that position again. Their gap over the rest of the field has ebbed and flowed, waned and waxed. It’s not really about the Grayling misfortunes, as they’ve turned in excellent days at all points of the season. Likely the best came at Bluejay, where the Vikings had all scorers at 18:05 or faster. Most recently, they placed 2^nd in the Northern Shores with another effort of state-qualifying quality.

Roscommon and Lake City have definitely progressed lately and if each trajectory continues to improve, could give Grayling some stress. Two youngsters have aided each team – Eli Hejnal and Chris Worley. Lake City’s Hejnal moved into the 2^nd slot at Northern Michigan for the Spartans, reaching into the 17’s on a Cadillac course he surely adores. Worley, a Roscommon freshman, began the year in the 21-22 min. range and just reached into the lowww-19’s at Northern Michigan. Confidence boosts from each heading into regional week, momentum building toward an exciting race.

The girls team qualifiers seem to laid out into two races – Lake City and Traverse City St. Francis duking it out in a standoff that’ll teach them lessons in their bid for the podium next week. Harbor Springs and Charlevoix hoping to join the above two. The latter two are both Northern Shores foes, and we can look to their recent conference final for a little guidance:

The two teams were fairly even up front, with the Rams gaining an advantage in the back half. Field quality is important to note when applying to this regional setting. Being top-heavy and D3 podium contenders, TCSF and LC will likely place girls in the area of each teams’ 1^st and 2^nd girls. If Charlevoix’s 1^st/2^nd girls run better than expectation, that could be enough to spring an upset.

Boys

#6 Charlevoix
#21 Traverse City St. Francis
#26 Grayling

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Charlevoix	31	95+	95+	1st
2	Traverse City St. Francis	78		95+	2 to 3
3	Grayling	112		66	2 to 5
4	Roscommon	125		25	3 to 6
5	Lake City	139		9	3 to 7
6	Mancelona	174			5 to 9
7	Harbor Springs	179			5 to 10
8	Boyne City	179			5 to 10
9	Elk Rapids	205			6 to 10
10	Kalkaska	208			6 to 10
11	Oscoda	333			11 to 12
12	Standish-Sterling	350			11 to 13
13	Cheboygan	364			11 to 15
14	Pinconning	385			13 to 15
15	Tawas	398			12 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	1.1
2	12	William Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	2.5
3	12	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	3.1
4	11	Aurie Selph	Charlevoix	5.6
5	11	Jacob Muladore	Charlevoix	6.1
6	12	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	6.5
7	12	Evan Civinskas	Roscommon	7.2
8	11	Liam Mahaffy	Grayling	10.1
9	11	Charlie Denherder	Elk Rapids	10.5
10	12	Brayden Spears	Lake City	11.1
11	12	Thomas Janisse	Roscommon	13.6
12	11	Harper Mullet	Traverse City St. Francis	15.3
13	10	Louis Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	15.3
14	12	Maxwell Drenth	Charlevoix	16.0
15	12	Finn Parish	Boyne City	17.2
16	12	Nate Gorman	Traverse City St. Francis	17.7
17	12	Bryce Reid	Elk Rapids	18.0
18	10	Mathieu Moore	Grayling	18.5
19	12	Leo Nothstine	Grayling	19.4
20	12	Donavin Reist	Mancelona	20.8
21	10	Eli Hejnal	Lake City	21.3
22	11	Owen McGlone	Kalkaska	22.5
23	12	Jake Klemmer	Roscommon	23.6
24	12	Carter Root	Lake City	25.3
25	11	Ryan Latimer	Harbor Springs	25.4
26	11	Hunter Bonner	Roscommon	26.1
27	9	Duke Roder	Harbor Springs	30.5
28	12	Quinn Cassada	Charlevoix	30.5
29	11	Connor Ketchum	Grayling	30.9
30	10	Lewis Smith	Mancelona	30.9

Girls

#2 Traverse City St. Francis
#3 Lake City
#22 Harbor Springs
#24 Charlevoix

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Traverse City St. Francis	34	82	95+	1 to 2
2	Lake City	41	18	95+	1 to 2
3	Harbor Springs	102		64	3 to 4
4	Charlevoix	108		36	3 to 4
5	Kalkaska	155			5 to 7
6	Grayling	161			5 to 7
7	Boyne City	184			5 to 8
8	Roscommon	218			7 to 10
9	Elk Rapids	240			8 to 11
10	Cheboygan	242			8 to 11
11	Tawas	264			9 to 11

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Isadora Shaw	Lake City	1.0
2	9	Maggie Mohrhardt	Traverse City St. Francis	3.2
3	9	Hannah Muladore	Charlevoix	4.6
4	9	Aubrey Doan	Lake City	4.6
5	11	Elise Renkiewicz	Lake City	6.9
6	12	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	6.9
7	11	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	7.5
8	12	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	7.5
9	9	Kate Rowe	Traverse City St. Francis	7.6
10	10	Ellery Kemner	Traverse City St. Francis	8.5
11	11	Faith Helsel	Lake City	12.4
12	12	Nico Triebold	Grayling	14.9
13	11	Aaliyah Hillier	Kalkaska	15.2
14	10	Chelsea Philp	Charlevoix	15.7
15	11	Harlow Hughes	Lake City	15.8
16	12	Laura Janisse	Roscommon	15.9
17	10	Isabella Wegener	Kalkaska	16.5
18	9	Reese Woodham	Harbor Springs	17.7
19	12	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	18.2
20	12	Stella Houdek	Traverse City St. Francis	19.1
21	11	Gabi Rempe	Harbor Springs	20.8
22	9	Ruby Okma	Elk Rapids	21.7
23	9	Ainsley Wiers	Charlevoix	23.4
24	11	Sophia Balistreri	Harbor Springs	26.8
25	10	Allison Kujawski	Boyne City	26.8
26	10	Taya Price-Thatcher	Harbor Springs	30.1
27	10	Marla Nothstine	Grayling	30.4
28	12	Allyson Albert	Grayling	31.0
29	9	Milah Eising	Lake City	31.2
30	12	Addy Wiers	Charlevoix	31.5

REGION 20

Any Big Battles?

Division 3’s got some bangers for sure. The girls team race here at Benzie was projected to be a whirlwind and it appears that will still be the case. Back in summer, it was thought that there’d be four teams in the top-13. As of this writing, there’s four teams in the top-14.

What may be different in comparison to other regions is the strength of the individuals within, especially from folks where their teams likely won’t threaten a qualifier. Projected in the top-15 are seven individuals that might need to run under 20:00 (high quality given these lower enrollments) to earn an auto qualifier. What this could do is push individuals back and gain an advantage for contending teams that can stay on the low side of things (think Caelyn Torry for McBain, Avery Kelly and Maggie McLellan for Benzie Central). How Hart and Maple City Glen Lake compete with one another up front might be the precursor toward who advances.

Boys

#2 Hart
#7 Maple City Glen Lake
#11 Benzie Central

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Hart	48	74	95+	1 to 2
2	Maple City Glen Lake	54	25	95+	1 to 2
3	Benzie Central	87		95+	3rd
4	McBain	147			4 to 5
5	Manistee	159			4 to 6
6	Manton	182			5 to 8
7	Mason County Central	182			5 to 8
8	Kingsley	209			6 to 9
9	Harrison	210			6 to 10
10	Shelby	249			9 to 11
11	Leroy Pine River	267			10 to 12
12	Hesperia	304			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Spencer McNitt	Maple City Glen Lake	2.1
2	11	Eli VanPoortfliet	Benzie Central	3.6
3	12	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	3.7
4	12	Cage Edingfield	Benzie Central	5.8
5	11	Edison Huizinga	Manistee	7.4
6	11	Tristan Hernandez	Kingsley	7.6
7	11	Silas Ackley	Hart	8.4
8	11	Timothy Wolff	Hart	10.1
9	10	Christian Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	11.3
10	12	Logan Young	Harrison	11.6
11	9	Alex Schiller	Hart	12.4
12	12	Lincoln Bailey	Maple City Glen Lake	12.8
13	11	Trevor VanderKodde	Hart	13.5
14	11	Azrael Horvath	Manton	13.8
15	12	Mason Opalewski	Hart	14.3
16	12	Carson Ackley	Hart	14.7
17	12	Owen VanderVlucht	Hart	16.2
18	10	Liam Plainte	Houghton Lake	17.1
19	12	Oliver Graetz	Benzie Central	18.9
20	12	Braydn Winkel	McBain	19.7
21	11	Parker Weirich	Shelby	20.3
22	9	Levi Hall	McBain	20.9
23	10	Brycen Brown	Shelby	23.5
24	12	Dean McKellar	Maple City Glen Lake	25.7
25	9	Keith Kaczmarek	Manistee	26.4
26	12	Jackson Poll	Mason County Central	27.1
27	11	Walter Armstrong	Benzie Central	27.6
28	11	Noah Holden	Mason County Central	30.7
29	10	Max Wassa	Maple City Glen Lake	31.5
30	11	Andrew Gilde	Kingsley	33.2

Girls

#9 Benzie Central
#11 McBain
#12 Hart
#14 Maple City Glen Lake
#27 LeRoy Pine River

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Benzie Central	64	88	95+	1 to 2
2	McBain	80	10	91	1 to 4
3	Hart	88		75	2 to 4
4	Maple City Glen Lake	98		34	2 to 4
5	Leroy Pine River	132			5 to 5
6	Mason County Central	174			6 to 8
7	Manton	176			6 to 7
8	Shelby	201			6 to 10
9	Kingsley	201			8 to 10
10	Manistee	206			8 to 10

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Caelyn Torry	McBain	1.2
2	11	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	3.0
3	11	Madisyn Wanstead	Leroy Pine River	3.1
4	11	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	3.8
5	9	Merrick Tacktor	Mason County Central	4.8
6	12	Natalie Rosema	Hart	7.0
7	11	Hattie Driver	Manistee	8.4
8	10	Lily Sisson	Leroy Pine River	8.9
9	12	Betsy Gooden	Manton	8.9
10	9	Avyrie Ottenbacher	Maple City Glen Lake	10.1
11	11	Alaina Schaner	Hart	14.1
12	9	Bella Young	Harrison	14.2
13	11	Brianna Patrick	Manton	14.5
14	10	Alyse Cox	Maple City Glen Lake	16.2
15	10	Kristina Bott	Benzie Central	16.4
16	12	Madelyn Reinink	McBain	16.8
17	11	Kaitlyn Kaple	Benzie Central	16.9
18	10	Mya Bronkema	McBain	17.3
19	11	Avalynne Allee	Leroy Pine River	18.5
20	11	Luisa Vander Zwaag	Hart	21.0
21	11	Bryn Riley	Hart	21.7
22	10	Grace Wilson	McBain	21.7
23	12	Lydia Soelberg	Shelby	21.8
24	12	Noel Parker	Shelby	24.9
25	10	Autumn Bailey	Maple City Glen Lake	25.0
26	11	Monroe Miles	Maple City Glen Lake	26.4
27	10	Sadee Wenkel	Benzie Central	26.9
28	10	Miah Elwood	McBain	27.4
29	10	Emma Miller	Hart	28.2
30	11	Alayna Ottenbacher	Maple City Glen Lake	28.7

REGION 21

Any Big Battles?

Mid-Season Projections pointed to what could be a cluster of ranked D3 teams comprising Region 21 and that cluster is still present. Delton-Kellogg, Grand Rapids Covenant Christian, Montague, The Potter’s House, and Lakeview, all separated by 6 spots in the rankings (Lakeview isn’t listed at #28) and 20 points in the projected standings. With the exception of Lakeview, everyone listed here toed the line at Portage. When filtering for only Region 21 teams, the order went WMC > GRCC > D-K > Montague > Potter’s House. Perhaps that’s the case again, or maybe Lakeview, enhanced by the emergence of Mason Niewiadomski, can sneak in and pull off a shocker.

Boys

#12 Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
#22 Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
#23 Delton-Kellogg
#24 Montague
#25 The Potter’s House

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	67	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Delton-Kellogg	99		88	2 to 5
3	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	100		75	2 to 5
4	Montague	113		23	3 to 6
5	The Potter’s House	116		9	3 to 6
6	Lakeview	119		5	3 to 6
7	Kent City	220			7 to 10
8	North Muskegon	220			7 to 8
9	Newaygo	253			8 to 11
10	Grandville Calvin Christian	260			8 to 12
11	Vermontville Maple Valley	276			9 to 12
12	Ravenna	293			10 to 13
13	Grant	345			12 to 13

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Nolan Kessler	Montague	2.1
2	12	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	3.6
3	12	Landon Madden	Delton-Kellogg	3.7
4	12	David Castrejon	Newaygo	4.5
5	10	Aiden Willett	Lakeview	4.9
6	12	Barrett Nance	North Muskegon	7.1
7	12	Evan Buteyn	Grandville Calvin Christian	7.4
8	12	Levi Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	9.9
9	12	Eli Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	10.0
10	11	Mason Lincoln	Lakeview	10.3
11	12	Josiah Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	10.9
12	11	Sam Hwang	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	12.3
13	12	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	13.0
14	12	Micah Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	13.9
15	12	Job Moore	The Potter’s House	16.3
16	12	Daniel Erdmann	The Potter’s House	18.1
17	11	Joseph McCoy	Delton-Kellogg	19.6
18	12	Mattias Tuls	The Potter’s House	19.8
19	10	Mason Bollinger	Stanton Central Montcalm	20.7
20	10	Malachi Allersma	Delton-Kellogg	21.3
21	12	Caleb Swiney	The Potter’s House	21.6
22	11	Caleb Glass	Grandville Calvin Christian	22.9
23	11	Jace Hilton	Delton-Kellogg	22.9
24	12	Landon Kuperus	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.0
25	9	Asher Koops	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	24.0
26	10	Micah Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	29.3
27	12	Liam Heyboer	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	29.8
28	9	Ezra Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	30.2
29	12	Gibson Smith	Montague	31.2
30	10	Emmett Elsner	Kent City	33.9

Girls

#4 Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
#7 Kent City
#26 Grandville Calvin Christian

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	34	72	95+	1 to 2
2	Kent City	40	28	95+	1 to 2
3	Grandville Calvin Christian	88		95+	3rd
4	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	109			4th
5	Newaygo	163			5 to 6
6	Delton-Kellogg	172			5 to 7
7	The Potter’s House	208			6 to 8
8	Lakeview	212			7 to 8
9	Montague	260			8 to 11
10	North Muskegon	271			9 to 11
11	Ravenna	285			10 to 11

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Elliana Max	Kent City	1.1
2	12	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	3.1
3	11	Shelby Zimmer	Kent City	3.6
4	12	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	3.9
5	12	Anna DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	6.1
6	10	Kate DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	7.0
7	12	Faith Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	8.1
8	10	Joselyn Vogel	Kent City	8.2
9	12	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	8.6
10	11	Abbie Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	9.4
11	12	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	11.2
12	11	Joellah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	13.5
13	10	Bayla Curtis	Kent City	13.9
14	9	Adelita Tobias	Vermontville Maple Valley	15.3
15	9	Kelsey Elsner	Kent City	15.8
16	12	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo	17.2
17	12	Rochelle Liu	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	18.1
18	9	Taylor Dornbos	Grandville Calvin Christian	19.4
19	10	Leah Elzinga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	19.7
20	11	Lynnae Meengs	Grandville Calvin Christian	19.9
21	10	Brooke Scheidel	Kent City	21.9
22	10	Sonya Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	22.9
23	9	Olivia Gonzalez	Delton-Kellogg	23.0
24	11	Ellason Foster	Newaygo	24.0
25	9	Audra Niemi	Kent City	24.6
26	12	Riley Perley	Delton-Kellogg	25.3
27	10	Peyten Hansen	Stanton Central Montcalm	26.4
28	9	Raegan Jones	Vermontville Maple Valley	28.3
29	10	Josephine Baker	The Potter’s House	29.0
30	9	Lena Studer	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	34.6

REGION 22

Any Big Battles?

Saugatuck likely rules the roost here in Region 22, no drama or intrigue there. The race for the other two qualifying spots on the girls side could make up for it. Three teams (Schoolcraft, Holland Black River, and Watervliet) are projected to be separated by a mere 9 points, any one of ‘em could place between 2^nd and 4^th, maybe 5^th. All three were present at Portage, with Black River and Watervliet placing ahead of Schoolcraft, both in large part due to the efforts of their 4^th/5^th girls. Each drove a minute+ gap on the Schoolcraft depth. But I wouldn’t count out the Eagles just yet, as they just received the return of Olivia Bays, their #1, who came back as if she never left, racing to a 20:27 at Christian Comet.

Boys

#4 Saugatuck
#14 Holland Black River
#27 Buchanan

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Saugatuck	31	95+	95+	1st
2	Holland Black River	68		95+	2nd
3	Buchanan	113		95+	3rd
4	Fennville	152			4 to 7
5	Three Oaks River Valley	159			4 to 7
6	Schoolcraft	162			5 to 7
7	Hartford	197			7 to 9
8	Parchment	200			5 to 10
9	Watervliet	226			7 to 11
10	Constantine	247			8 to 12
11	Kalamazoo Christian	252			9 to 12
12	Bloomingdale	266			10 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	1.5
2	11	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck	2.6
3	12	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	3.7
4	12	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	6.1
5	10	Reese DeVisser	Schoolcraft	6.7
6	12	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	7.3
7	12	Sebastian Zylstra	Holland Black River	9.3
8	12	John Keser	Buchanan	9.8
9	11	Avery Carlson	Holland Black River	10.6
10	10	Leo Avalos	Saugatuck	12.3
11	11	Michael Cleary	Three Oaks River Valley	12.4
12	12	Ivan “Gabe” Gonzalez	Fennville	12.6
13	12	Aiden Mcdonald	Hartford	12.8
14	11	Casper Banner	Holland Black River	15.1
15	10	Bentley Molitor	Buchanan	16.9
16	10	Sam Casiano	Watervliet	17.4
17	10	Simon Carr	Saugatuck	19.4
18	11	Josiah Passig	Buchanan	20.1
19	12	Atticus Boeve	Fennville	21.0
20	11	Aaron Hofmeister	Constantine	23.0
21	9	Isaac Mulder	Schoolcraft	23.4
22	11	Carter Brouwer	Bangor	26.4
23	12	Jessie Bernard	Fennville	28.2
24	9	Micah Passig	Buchanan	29.7
25	11	Leo Lemieux	Three Oaks River Valley	29.7
26	11	Joseph Edwards	Three Oaks River Valley	30.5
27	9	Dylan Weeks	Kalamazoo Christian	30.5
28	11	Daren Austin	Parchment	30.6
29	12	Connor Bailey-Cook	Parchment	30.8
30	11	Zavier Gutierrez	Hartford	31.4

Girls

#6 Saugatuck

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Saugatuck	30	95+	95+	1st
2	Schoolcraft	117		71	2 to 4
3	Holland Black River	118		76	2 to 5
4	Watervliet	127		46	2 to 5
5	Buchanan	176			4 to 10
6	Fennville	177			3 to 10
7	Hartford	183			5 to 10
8	Constantine	196			5 to 11
9	Three Oaks River Valley	203			5 to 12
10	Niles Brandywine	232			7 to 12
11	Bloomingdale	234			5 to 12
12	Kalamazoo Christian	239			9 to 12
13	Bangor	352			13 to 13

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	2.3
2	10	Ellyse Heyser	Saugatuck	2.4
3	12	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	2.4
4	12	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	6.0
5	9	Elina Guffy	Saugatuck	6.3
6	11	Olivia Bays	Schoolcraft	6.8
7	10	Daniella Romero	Watervliet	9.9
8	9	Lucy Wheeler	Schoolcraft	10.8
9	11	Alison Murray	Niles Brandywine	10.9
10	11	Naomi Telman	Holland Black River	13.5
11	10	Allison Burns	Constantine	13.9
12	10	Ryann Monroe	Saugatuck	13.9
13	10	Janet Andrade	Bloomingdale	14.3
14	11	Esther Edgington	Holland Black River	16.6
15	11	Miranda Lowell	Watervliet	18.0
16	12	Juliana Morseau	Hartford	20.3
17	12	Abigail Mulder	Schoolcraft	21.6
18	10	Laila Wogatzke	Niles Brandywine	21.7
19	10	Tala Carlin	Buchanan	22.0
20	10	Kaylani Hernandez	Fennville	22.6
21	10	Mary Zinck	Holland Black River	23.5
22	9	Adalee Webb	Kalamazoo Christian	25.1
23	9	Elizabeth Cernugel	Saugatuck	27.3
24	12	Helen Donner	Three Oaks River Valley	27.6
25	10	Anna Davidhizar	Constantine	28.2
26	12	Anika Weurding	Lawton	29.9
27	12	Harper Bowman	Three Oaks River Valley	30.1
28	11	Katelyn Brown	Watervliet	31.5
29	11	MaKenzie McClintock	Kalamazoo Christian	32.5
30	12	Ella Hendrixson	Three Oaks River Valley	33.5

REGION 23

Any Big Battles?

This is it. This is the one. This is the region we’ve been pointing to all year.

It didn’t actually start this way. Centreville was ranked 18^th to begin the year, but by mid-season had moved up to 9^th. Their whole crew has stepped up this year – Will Hulin up front, Max Reed, Nick Overweg, Will Swanwick, all warranting their inclusion in the top-10. Both Hanover-Horton and Jonesville have done their part to avoid missing out on a state berth. H-H has won everything against anyone in D3. Jonesville has saved their best material for the late season, winning the Small School division at Gabriel Richard.

Which leaves one top-10 team to spoil the party – Jackson Lumen Christi. They’re a senior-laden outfit that’s been here before. They’re on their home course which they’ve run thousands of times. They’ve got a reliable top-two, Soren Crosthwaite and Rocky Bolton. And they’re coming off a Gabriel Richard Invite (two weeks back = fresh legs) where a majority of their depth pieces earned a PR, essential for race-day confidence.

Boys

#1 Hanover-Horton
#5 Jonesville
#8 Centreville
#9 Jackson Lumen Christi

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Hanover-Horton	47	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Jonesville	67	3	95+	1 to 3
3	Centreville	84		86	2 to 4
4	Jackson Lumen Christi	98		12	3 to 4
5	Hillsdale	196			5 to 7
6	Hudson	209			5 to 9
7	Quincy	214			5 to 9
8	Brooklyn Columbia Central	248			7 to 11
9	Bronson	249			7 to 11
10	Napoleon	251			8 to 11
11	Olivet	274			9 to 12
12	Union City	292			8 to 13
13	Springport	303			11 to 13
14	Homer	357			14 to 15
15	Galesburg-Augusta	383			14 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	2.0
2	12	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	3.6
3	12	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	3.6
4	11	Will Hulin	Centreville	4.0
5	12	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton	4.9
6	11	Soren Crosthwaite	Jackson Lumen Christi	7.1
7	10	Max Reed	Centreville	7.7
8	9	Nick Overweg	Centreville	8.6
9	12	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	9.0
10	11	Wyatt Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	10.2
11	11	Clint Couchman	Brooklyn Columbia Central	11.3
12	12	Collin Fucile	Jonesville	12.4
13	11	Tyler Harris	Hanover-Horton	14.3
14	11	Ashton Potwin	Jonesville	15.1
15	10	Bryce Youngman	Hillsdale	15.6
16	11	Channing Rougeau	Jonesville	17.1
17	11	Anderson Cook	Hanover-Horton	18.0
18	11	Hunter Walker	Quincy	18.2
19	10	Briggs Baker	Jonesville	18.9
20	12	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	22.1
21	12	Ethan Huff	Homer	23.1
22	11	Blake Fish	Napoleon	23.9
23	11	Carson Beach	Hanover-Horton	24.0
24	10	Will Swanwick	Centreville	24.3
25	10	Blake Aube	Hudson	24.5
26	12	Brayton Cosby	Bronson	26.5
27	12	Landen Gessner	Olivet	26.6
28	11	Carter Feltner	Quincy	28.2
29	12	Wilson Sheldon	Jackson Lumen Christi	30.0
30	12	Cullen Decker	Union City	30.8

Girls

#5 Jackson Lumen Christi
#17 Olivet
#19 Jonesville

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	38	95+	95+	1st
2	Olivet	81		95+	2 to 3
3	Jonesville	95		95+	2 to 3
4	Hanover-Horton	135			3 to 6
5	Napoleon	144			4 to 6
6	Bronson	162			4 to 8
7	Centreville	170			4 to 8
8	Quincy	189			6 to 8
9	Hudson	237			9 to 10
10	Homer	255			9 to 10
11	Springport	299			11 to 12
12	Galesburg-Augusta	308			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	1.3
2	12	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.8
3	10	Lily Britton	Olivet	3.4
4	11	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	3.8
5	9	Lilly Kimble	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.4
6	10	Avery Haynes	Brooklyn Columbia Central	7.3
7	10	Madelynn Patterson	Olivet	7.4
8	10	Mila Scheele	Jackson Lumen Christi	9.8
9	10	Ella Worthing	Jackson Lumen Christi	10.5
10	12	Alonna Goodsell	Bronson	11.5
11	12	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton	12.3
12	9	Rhylee McNair	Jonesville	14.1
13	12	Kendahl Drake	Jonesville	14.8
14	9	Maisen Schaedler	Hudson	15.0
15	11	Sophia Trachsel	Jackson Lumen Christi	15.1
16	12	Kendyl Musielewicz	Quincy	17.9
17	9	Marie Swager	Jackson Lumen Christi	20.3
18	11	Addison Johnson	Centreville	20.9
19	9	Ayva Berkeypile	Napoleon	21.4
20	9	Molly Johnson	Homer	21.8
21	12	Miriam Sanchez	Bronson	22.0
22	9	Savannah Nye	Jonesville	24.0
23	12	Helen Lefere	Jackson Lumen Christi	24.5
24	11	Brynleigh Griffiths	Jonesville	24.6
25	10	Piper Grigsby	Bronson	26.8
26	11	Madisyn Lindemann	Napoleon	27.1
27	12	Keira Knight	Jonesville	27.9
28	9	Emily Falkenstein	Centreville	28.9
29	9	Lauren Tappenden	Quincy	30.4
30	12	Aubrey Weber	Napoleon	32.0

REGION 24

Any Big Battles?

Just as projected mid-season, the battle for the boys’ 3^rd spot looks like it’ll be locked in between Belding and Montrose.

Since that early October date, the Rams have seen the emergence of Michael Allen. Whereas Allen was north of 17:30 throughout all of August to Bluejay, he’s been in the 16’s ever since. If that trend continues, it’ll be a major boon in the side of the Rams. The Black Knights also have some momentum to point to, with five of their seven varsity contributors nailing a PR at the OK Silver Championship.

Peering at the projections, it appears that we’ll see an indicator early, with Allen and Eli Hobson potentially getting in ahead of Belding’s #1. If the Black Knights could split the two up, that could help. However, if the Rams’ can break up Belding’s top-four, that might be a good omen for their chances.

Boys

#13 Pewamo-Westphalia
#19 Ithaca

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	54	95+	95+
2	Ithaca	72	4	95+
3	Montrose	95		50
4	Belding	98		44
5	Bath	119		7
6	Saranac	155
7	Laingsburg	183
8	Chesaning	190
9	New Lothrop	227
10	Ovid-Elsie	253
11	St. Louis	290

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Owen Poppema	Bath	1.5
2	12	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca	2.5
3	12	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.5
4	11	Eli Hobson	Montrose	5.0
5	12	Jaxon Hemgesberg	Chesaning	5.4
6	12	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	6.7
7	12	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.0
8	10	Dutch Smith	Ithaca	8.1
9	11	Michael Allen	Montrose	11.5
10	11	Logan Ingraham	Belding	12.3
11	9	Jaxson Scheid	Belding	14.3
12	11	Brady Oosterhouse	Saranac	14.5
13	12	Nolan Mitchell	Pewamo-Westphalia	14.9
14	9	Krue Short	Belding	15.3
15	11	Christopher Shemes	Ithaca	15.8
16	9	Graysen Crimi	Montrose	17.2
17	9	Tyler Hopkins	Belding	18.8
18	11	Logan Gregory	Saranac	20.6
19	9	Jace Devereaux	Laingsburg	21.2
20	10	Joel Oosterhouse	Saranac	21.5
21	10	Daniel Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	22.4
22	9	Lucas Demeter	New Lothrop	23.4
23	11	Rylan Huyck	Ithaca	24.7
24	11	Austin Hodges	Laingsburg	25.2
25	9	Aidan Jorae	Ithaca	26.6
26	11	Colin Johnson	Bath	27.3
27	11	Jameson Huhn	Pewamo-Westphalia	27.4
28	10	Charles Blond	Ithaca	29.9
29	10	Weston LePard	Ithaca	30.1
30	11	Collin Riley	Bath	30.2

Girls

#8 Pewamo-Westphalia
#10 Ithaca
#15 Chesaning

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	41	95+	95+	1 to 2
2	Ithaca	57	5	95+	1 to 2
3	Chesaning	92		95+	3rd
4	Belding	157			4 to 8
5	Saranac	170			4 to 9
6	New Lothrop	176			4 to 10
7	Bath	182			4 to 10
8	St. Louis	193			4 to 11
9	Montrose	197			6 to 10
10	Laingsburg	212			6 to 11
11	Perry	246			10 to 12
12	Ovid-Elsie	291			11 to 12

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	1.0
2	9	Grace Jordan	Chesaning	2.7
3	10	Calista George	Pewamo-Westphalia	3.1
4	12	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	4.5
5	10	Katherine Schafer	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.7
6	10	Sydney Knieper	New Lothrop	7.9
7	9	Abigail Jordan	Chesaning	8.4
8	9	Lucy Shemes	Ithaca	8.6
9	11	Khloe Lehnst	Ithaca	9.6
10	11	Takoda Holicki	Montrose	10.8
11	11	Ruby Gross	Chesaning	13.8
12	11	Esther Cahill	Saranac	14.1
13	9	Tilly Bowen	Ithaca	14.7
14	11	Halli VanDyken	Belding	14.9
15	12	Charlotte Simon	Pewamo-Westphalia	16.3
16	9	Nora Huhn	Pewamo-Westphalia	19.2
17	12	Delaney Smith	Pewamo-Westphalia	19.4
18	11	Amelia Dawe	Ithaca	20.2
19	12	Payge Woodworth	Laingsburg	22.8
20	11	Courtney Lawhorne	Bath	25.3
21	10	Teagan Kuykendall	Bath	26.1
22	10	Emily Eubank	Belding	26.1
23	11	Ava Wenzlick	New Lothrop	26.9
24	9	Sophia Brandt	Montrose	26.9
25	11	Adelyn Thelen	Pewamo-Westphalia	27.4
26	10	Lexi Kinder	St. Louis	27.7
27	10	Madison Lemert	St. Louis	28.1
28	12	Samantha Gutzman	Laingsburg	29.2
29	9	Bella Stewart	Ovid-Elsie	31.5
30	10	Olivia Roseberry	Perry	31.8

REGION 25

Any Big Battles?

Two of ‘em.

One, Caro and Gladwin duking it out for the win. The Flying G’s have stepped up in the past few weeks, in large part due to the emergence of freshman Emmett Vogel. Vogel has transformed from a mid-18 kid through September into an athlete that’s gravitated into the 17’s in three of his past four races. This gives Gladwin another candidate that can try to keep pace with Caro’s depth. Luke Herron is likely a sure thing up front, the pack of Tigers behind him is what can win a regional and make hay at MIS. Five other Caro boys have broken 18:00 on the year, three of those with season bests at the recent Ubly Invite.

You may recall from last fall that the girls race was projected to be a barnburner. Even with Chippewa Hills staying home and Ithaca heading south, there’s still a cluster of ranked teams. Four teams – Sanford-Meridian, Harbor Beach, Saginaw Valley Lutheran, and Midland Bullock Creek, ranked between 16^th and 21^st.

Sanford-Meridian is the favorite, in large part because of their depth. The projections think the pack will be a bit more tightly-wound in the top-30, then spread out a bit. The Mustangs have the ability to place all of their scorers in that top-30 range, with their best seven at 22:15 or faster. Harbor Beach has an air of security as well, with their varsity girls all coming in with SB’s of ~22:30 or quicker. Midland Bullock Creek has both past course experience and recent upward trajectory. The Lancers raced here in early October and are coming off a Gabriel Richard Invite where their top girl, Sarah Nothstine, found a PR. Saginaw Valley Lutheran will be reliant on their depth in order to get in the top-3 teams, as their first four girls are ultra consistent. With that in mind though, there’s a chance they could sneak in as the fourth team. Scenarios where the Chargers placed 4 girls in the top-20 occurred 18% of the time. Of course, this hinges on SVL placing 4^th and not 5^th, but I think there’s a large enough gap where that isn’t an issue.

Boys

#16 Caro
#17 Gladwin
#20 Midland Bullock Creek

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Gladwin	72	50	95+	1 to 3
2	Caro	74	45	95+	1 to 3
3	Midland Bullock Creek	91	5	95+	1 to 3
4	Hemlock	147			4 to 6
5	Sanford-Meridian	148			4 to 6
6	Pigeon-Laker	175			5 to 7
7	Beaverton	198			6 to 9
8	Unionville-Sebewaing	227			7 to 10
9	Sandusky	230			7 to 11
10	Otisville LakeVille	238			7 to 11
11	Reese	286			9 to 13
12	Harbor Beach	289			10 to 12
13	Millington	331			12 to 14
14	Carrollton	342			13 to 14
15	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	396			15 to 15

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Luke Herron	Caro	1.2
2	10	Asher Putman	Reese	2.4
3	11	Brendan Plante	Midland Bullock Creek	5.6
4	12	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	5.8
5	12	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	7.0
6	11	Gabe Piach	Gladwin	7.5
7	9	Ivan Christensen	Gladwin	7.5
8	11	Remyngton Clish	Sanford-Meridian	8.2
9	12	Myles Robinson	Gladwin	9.6
10	10	Jacob Daisy	Caro	10.3
11	12	Owen Wruble	Harbor Beach	10.5
12	11	Wyatt Roberts	Otisville LakeVille	13.8
13	9	Thatcher Hodges	Hemlock	15.8
14	10	Silas Finney	Beaverton	19.3
15	11	Luke Mulder	Midland Bullock Creek	19.6
16	12	Grady Galbraith	Hemlock	20.7
17	10	Jackson Ransford	Caro	21.1
18	12	Sebastian Seifferlein	Sandusky	21.2
19	12	Henry Haag	Pigeon-Laker	21.4
20	10	Gunnar Long	Sandusky	22.2
21	10	Zeke Rickwalt	Caro	22.8
22	12	Mayson McIntosh	Caro	24.9
23	11	Xavier Teneyuque	Carrollton	25.0
24	12	Mason LaVigne	Hemlock	25.1
25	9	Elliott Daisy	Caro	25.7
26	11	Maksim Kohl	Unionville-Sebewaing	26.8
27	12	Jeffery Sisson	Gladwin	27.1
28	12	Dillon Spilker	Sanford-Meridian	27.8
29	9	Emmett Vogel	Gladwin	28.5
30	9	Pierce Lakatos	Sanford-Meridian	29.8

Girls

#16 Sanford-Meridian
#18 Harbor Beach
#20 Saginaw Valley Lutheran
#21 Midland Bullock Creek

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Sanford-Meridian	68	69	95+	1 to 3
2	Harbor Beach	76	23	88	1 to 4
3	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	84	7	77	1 to 4
4	Midland Bullock Creek	91		37	2 to 5
5	Gladwin	132			4 to 6
6	Caro	146			5 to 7
7	Pigeon-Laker	173			6 to 9
8	Reese	181			7 to 8
9	Sandusky	219			9 to 10
10	Hemlock	226			8 to 10

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	1.9
2	12	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	2.2
3	10	Sage Palmer	Sandusky	6.2
4	9	Juliet Siemen	Harbor Beach	6.4
5	12	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	6.6
6	12	Cailin Spearman	Harbor Beach	8.2
7	11	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek	8.7
8	11	Alyvia Janke	Unionville-Sebewaing	9.0
9	9	Reagan Shadley	Cass City	9.5
10	12	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian	11.0
11	10	Jocelyn Tetil	Caro	11.7
12	10	Rebekah Huber	Midland Bullock Creek	12.2
13	11	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	13.1
14	11	Olivia Brown	Bad Axe	13.1
15	10	Claire Burrows	Millington	15.2
16	11	Bethany Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	15.3
17	11	Esther Bulgrien	Harbor Beach	18.3
18	10	Sophi Beach	Sanford-Meridian	19.6
19	11	Vivian O’Callaghan	Gladwin	20.1
20	10	Brynn Burrows	Millington	20.6
21	12	Rachael Heikkinen	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	22.2
22	12	Adeline Ludwig	Midland Bullock Creek	22.5
23	11	Lydia Popp	Pigeon-Laker	22.8
24	12	Bayleigh Finney	Sanford-Meridian	25.7
25	10	Zophia Zaleski	Hemlock	29.9
26	10	Rachel Becker	Unionville-Sebewaing	30.1
27	10	Arliena Grant	Gladwin	30.4
28	9	Eden Beldyga	Midland Bullock Creek	30.5
29	10	Danica Burtch	Sanford-Meridian	30.7
30	10	Kayden Parker	Harbor Beach	33.0

REGION 26

Any Big Battles?

Probably not. The top-3 teams in each region are all coming in at 94%+. Once again, I’ll eat my hat if someone other than Lansing Catholic, Rochester Hills Lutheran NW, or Leslie moves on.

Boys

#3 Lansing Catholic
#15 Rochester Hills Lutheran NW

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Lansing Catholic	36	95+	95+	1st
2	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	63		95+	2nd
3	Leslie	104		94	3 to 4
4	Charyl Stockwell Academy	124		6	3 to 6
5	Almont	143			4 to 7
6	Clawson	148			5 to 7
7	New Haven	163			5 to 8
8	Stockbridge	173			6 to 8
9	Marine City	233			9 to 10
10	Algonac	247			9 to 10
11	Detroit Osborn	347			11 to 11

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	1.0
2	12	Owen Windgaston	Clawson	2.8
3	12	William Gancer	Stockbridge	3.4
4	12	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	4.5
5	12	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic	4.6
6	9	Coen Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	6.3
7	12	James Tennes	Lansing Catholic	6.9
8	11	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic	7.9
9	12	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	10.1
10	11	Landon Shimkus	Charyl Stockwell Academy	11.1
11	12	Elijah Killinger	Charyl Stockwell Academy	11.2
12	12	Hayden Selesky	Lansing Catholic	12.4
13	11	Jack Songer	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	12.7
14	12	Matthew Killeen	Leslie	13.5
15	12	Finn Korte	Lansing Catholic	14.5
16	11	Carson Potter	Lansing Catholic	16.5
17	11	James Valovick	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	16.9
18	12	Colton Grzyb	Almont	18.0
19	11	Doug Grishkevich	New Haven	18.3
20	12	Cooper Schmelter	Leslie	20.1
21	12	Benjamin Kline	Almont	21.7
22	10	Jonathan Larkins	Leslie	24.6
23	11	Gideon Schneider	Clawson	25.6
24	10	Owen Peckham	Stockbridge	26.2
25	11	Jake Cavins	New Haven	28.0
26	11	Ryan Beauchamp	New Haven	29.2
27	12	Preston Varnauskas	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	31.2
28	12	Jamin Siewert	Almont	31.2
29	11	Tyrique Mabins	Mt. Clemens	31.3
30	10	Jadon Russell	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	31.4

Girls

#1 Lansing Catholic
#23 Leslie
#25 Rochester Hills Lutheran NW

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Lansing Catholic	20	95+	95+	1st
2	Leslie	82		95+	2 to 3
3	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	85		95+	2 to 3
4	Stockbridge	127			4 to 5
5	Almont	151			5 to 7
6	Algonac	160			5 to 7
7	Marine City	160			4 to 7
8	Charyl Stockwell Academy	214			8 to 10
9	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	232			8 to 10
10	New Haven	232			8 to 10
11	Clawson	260			10 to 11

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	1.2
2	10	Anna Drauer	Lansing Catholic	2.2
3	11	Piper Lyon	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	3.4
4	11	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	4.1
5	12	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	7.3
6	9	Annie Lloyd	Lansing Catholic	7.5
7	11	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic	7.9
8	9	Abby Creisher	Leslie	8.0
9	12	Emma Reimer	New Haven	9.4
10	11	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie	10.6
11	11	Taylor Stanczak	Almont	12.3
12	9	Caleigh Gardner	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	12.8
13	10	Elsa Korte	Lansing Catholic	12.9
14	10	Kadence Ager	Algonac	14.5
15	11	Leah Flannery	Leslie	15.3
16	11	Madisyn Hunter	Leslie	15.7
17	10	Jessica LeFeve	Charyl Stockwell Academy	16.0
18	10	Kiersten Craigo	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	18.3
19	11	Sophia Carson	University Liggett	18.5
20	9	Summer Knowles	Marine City	20.3
21	10	Lucy Chapman	Stockbridge	22.7
22	12	Ava Troxel	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	24.1
23	10	Jordan Traylor	Mt. Clemens	24.4
24	11	Aliyah Numinen	Stockbridge	25.3
25	9	Isabella Pratt	Stockbridge	25.9
26	12	Emily Satkowiak	Stockbridge	26.2
27	10	Abby McCarthy	Wixom St. Catherine	28.2
28	10	Sophia Walker	Algonac	28.4
29	11	Nanuka Schlegel	Marine City	29.3
30	9	Evelyn McAtee	University Liggett	31.1

REGION 27

Any Big Battles?

There’s one that stands out – who can come out of the 3^rd spot in the girls race?

Blissfield is a clear favorite and has been so all year. The Royals placed 2^nd in Lenawee County (behind another potential qualifier in D2 Adrian) and won the LCAA Championship against many of these same teams. Grass Lake is coming off one of their better efforts of the year, bringing in all five scorers in the low-23’s or faster at the Cascade Conference meet.

Beyond these two, you’ve got Ann Arbor Greenhills and Clinton, going about their potential state qualifying in varying ways. Clinton has power up front, with Ella Claus, Josslyn Handy, and Katelynn Wellday all showing the strength to be in the 21’s or faster. Greenhills comes at you with numbers, with six girls sub-23 at Gabriel Richard. This may come down to field quantity and quality. If Region 27 had the strength of Region 20, Greenhills might have a greater advantage due to their strength deeper into the race. But it’s not, this SE Michigan area doesn’t have the numbers as other regions of the state may have, so Clinton just may have enough.

Boys

#10 Blissfield
#18 Ann Arbor Greenhills

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Blissfield	55	93	95+	1 to 2
2	Ann Arbor Greenhills	70	7	95+	1 to 2
3	Erie Mason	102		89	3 to 4
4	Monroe St. Mary CC	125		4	3 to 5
5	Plymouth Christian Academy	132		6	3 to 7
6	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	154			5 to 8
7	Grass Lake	156			4 to 8
8	Clinton	157			6 to 8
9	Adrian Madison	223			9 to 10
10	Onsted	230			9 to 10
11	Detroit Communication Media Arts	364			11 to 12
12	Detroit Central	388			11 to 14
13	Detroit Cristo Rey	400			12 to 14
14	Detroit Northwestern	415			13 to 14

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC	1.1
2	10	Isaac Cox	Plymouth Christian Academy	2.8
3	12	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills	3.1
4	11	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield	4.8
5	11	Noah Sills	Blissfield	5.9
6	10	Henry Cooper	Ann Arbor Greenhills	5.9
7	11	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy	6.2
8	12	Connor Boteler	Grass Lake	8.0
9	10	Haiden Bennett	Clinton	10.5
10	10	Grant Rasor	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	11.1
11	11	Phineas Totten	Monroe St. Mary CC	12.9
12	11	Caleb Healey	Erie Mason	14.9
13	10	Bryson Pooley	Blissfield	15.0
14	10	Cameron Jordan	Blissfield	15.0
15	12	Porter Ravary	Erie Mason	15.3
16	9	Cooper Flohr	Ann Arbor Greenhills	17.8
17	12	Roger Mariani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	18.1
18	12	Kaleb Stutzman	Blissfield	18.2
19	11	Brady Bills	Blissfield	18.3
20	11	Thomas Wickenheiser	Monroe St. Mary CC	20.5
21	11	Weston Albright	Erie Mason	21.0
22	9	Brennan Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	21.6
23	12	David Mills	Erie Mason	23.2
24	12	Nicklas Holmes	Onsted	23.4
25	9	Elliott Taylor	Ann Arbor Greenhills	26.2
26	11	John Verlinde	Adrian Madison	27.2
27	9	Owen Claus	Clinton	27.5
28	12	Joseph Colaluca	Erie Mason	28.1
29	10	Alex Hunt	Onsted	30.3
30	10	Nate Kubiak	Ann Arbor Greenhills	30.5

Girls

#13 Blissfield

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Blissfield	41	95+	95+	1st
2	Grass Lake	105		95+	2 to 4
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	119		56	2 to 5
4	Clinton	123		39	2 to 6
5	Monroe St. Mary CC	141		6	3 to 7
6	Plymouth Christian Academy	159			4 to 9
7	Erie Mason	167			5 to 9
8	Onsted	175			6 to 9
9	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	176			6 to 9
10	Adrian Madison	226			10 to 11
11	Dearborn Heights Robichaud	254			10 to 11
12	Detroit Cristo Rey	369			12th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	1.4
2	10	Anamaria Brazdau	Plymouth Christian Academy	3.7
3	11	Ella Claus	Clinton	4.4
4	12	Shiaire Little	Dearborn Heights Robichaud	5.1
5	9	Ellie Sills	Blissfield	5.2
6	9	Avery Jones	Grass Lake	6.0
7	9	Stylar Ross	Onsted	8.9
8	9	Rose Moreno	Blissfield	10.6
9	12	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield	11.4
10	10	Mollie Yeager	Blissfield	12.4
11	12	Peyton Marshall	Plymouth Christian Academy	12.5
12	12	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	12.5
13	12	Juleigh Husby	Monroe St. Mary CC	13.3
14	10	Josslyn Handy	Clinton	13.4
15	11	Jaelynn Horton	Erie Mason	14.9
16	12	Braelynn Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	15.4
17	12	Makenzie Hilberer	Grass Lake	17.5
18	11	Breslin Wing	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	17.7
19	11	Revan Ricker	Blissfield	19.2
20	12	Tanylei Neff	Erie Mason	21.7
21	9	Eden Bloom	Plymouth Christian Academy	22.1
22	12	Nina Malani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	23.5
23	9	Ella Hendrick	Monroe St. Mary CC	25.1
24	12	Adeline Stormont	Grass Lake	27.6
25	12	Elise Bullock	Grass Lake	27.8
26	11	Makayla Markgraff	Monroe St. Mary CC	28.0
27	11	Ava Kruise	Grass Lake	28.3
28	12	Nata Yonkoski	Ann Arbor Greenhills	28.5
29	11	Grace Farrell	Clinton	28.8
30	10	Rebecca Nadgorny	Ann Arbor Greenhills	30.3

Uncategorized

2026 Regional Projections: Division Four

October 27, 2026October 26, 2026 mixcspeedratings

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Your D4 Regional Projections…

SUMMER PROJECTIONS
MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS

Avg. Score = the average score across all the simulations
Proj. Place = determined by sorting through the average scores, from lowest to highest
Win % = odds that a team will win the region
Top-3 % = odds that a team will place in the top-3
Range = 95% of the outcomes fall within this range

REGION 28

Any Big Battles?

There are decent-sized gaps between the Fairview and Ellsworth boys, the Rogers City and East Jordan girls. But with small meet sizes and a small quantity of meets, much variability exists in the scenarios.

Fairview’s boys are considered the favorite, with the frontrunner Carter Toensfeldt setting the tone early. The Eagles will need a performance such as their one at Heritage, where all five scorers were at ~20:30 or faster. Ellsworth will be hoping that the consistency of their depth comes through. Korbin Drenth has been steady in the 21-min. range, running his best in the Ski Valley Conference meet, enough for the Lancers to place 2^nd. That may be the spot where they gain on Fairview.

The Rogers City girls sit in a good position, four girls projected in the top-15. Even if thing go awry on the back end, there’s a good chance that the Hurons can escape via the ol’ four in the top-20 rule. If Rogers City does get upset, it’ll be because East Jordan’s depth came up huge. Both Danica King and Tinly Richards dropped significant PB’s in the Red Devils’ 2^nd place Ski Valley finish. If that trend continues, a surprise could be in the works.

Boys

#6 Petoskey St. Michael
#26 Mackinaw City

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Petoskey St. Michael	25	95+	95+	1st
2	Mackinaw City	61		95+	2 to 3
3	Fairview	74		84	2 to 4
4	Ellsworth	90		16	3 to 5
5	East Jordan	104			4 to 5

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Cole Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael	1.8
2	9	Grady Hanes	Petoskey St. Michael	2.7
3	10	Cooper Feagan	Petoskey St. Michael	3.7
4	12	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview	4.5
5	11	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	4.5
6	10	Abraham Poel	East Jordan	6.8
7	11	Keagan Beyer	Onaway	7.5
8	9	Ryder Chellis	Ellsworth	9.7
9	10	Knox Wilson	Mackinaw City	10.7
10	10	Jaxx Weaver	Fairview	10.8
11	12	Kyle Valot	Mackinaw City	11.0
12	10	Mason Dawson	Ellsworth	11.2
13	11	Mikey Sullivan	Mackinaw City	12.0
14	10	Bjorn Johnson	Rogers City	16.3
15	11	Logan Holden	Indian River Inland Lakes	16.3
16	8	Clayton VanOrman	Mackinaw City	17.0
17	11	Phillip Anderson	Petoskey St. Michael	17.4
18	9	Eli Miron	Fairview	18.8
19	9	Cobe Robertson	Mackinaw City	18.9
20	11	Dominik Kranz	Petoskey St. Michael	20.3
21	12	Elijah Pulver	Petoskey St. Michael	21.5
22	11	Matthew Marzolo	Onaway	24.0
23	9	Isaac Larrison	Fairview	25.8
24	10	Peter Brower	East Jordan	26.1
25	9	Ethan Ford	Mackinaw City	26.2
26	9	Malachi DeLong	Mackinaw City	27.4
27	12	Jack Puroll	Ellsworth	29.7
28	11	Lewis Holmes	Bellaire	30.6
29	10	Jackson Bernier	East Jordan	30.6
30	9	Zander Thompson	Fairview	30.7

Girls

#21 Petoskey St. Michael
#24 Bellaire

Proj. Place	Team	Proj. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Petoskey St. Michael	56	85	95+	1 to 2
2	Bellaire	64	12	95+	1 to 3
3	Rogers City	74		84	2 to 4
4	East Jordan	84		17	3 to 5
5	Indian River Inland Lakes	100			4 to 6
6	Ellsworth	115			5 to 6
7	Mackinaw City	149			7th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	1.2
2	11	Mea Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael	2.6
3	9	Amelia Hoyt	Bellaire	4.3
4	9	Amity Moore	Petoskey St. Michael	5.5
5	10	Lillian Coen	Ellsworth	5.6
6	10	Reese Brege	Rogers City	5.6
7	11	Bristol Skop	East Jordan	7.4
8	12	Avary Bearden	East Jordan	7.8
9	10	Josephine Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes	8.8
10	12	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	9.3
11	10	Madalyn Dewey	Bellaire	9.9
12	12	Avery Langlois	Rogers City	12.9
13	11	Fenlynn Johnson	Rogers City	13.4
14	10	Grace Campbell	Bellaire	14.0
15	11	Keri Coolman	Rogers City	14.5
16	12	Margaret Newman	Indian River Inland Lakes	16.1
17	9	Alexis Wenz	East Jordan	16.8
18	12	Morgan Reh	Bellaire	19.0
19	9	Bailey Strange	Ellsworth	19.8
20	12	Isabella Hocking	Bellaire	21.1
21	12	Rian Esper	Mackinaw City	21.9
22	12	Kylie LaFreniere	Whittemore-Prescott	23.9
23	9	Chloe Coveyou	Petoskey St. Michael	24.7
24	12	Lily Trevarrow	Whittemore-Prescott	26.0
25	11	Grace Lewis	Indian River Inland Lakes	28.0
26	12	Mackenzie Oeder	Ellsworth	28.1
27	12	Addyson Price	Indian River Inland Lakes	28.7
28	9	Kateri Kranz	Petoskey St. Michael	29.3
29	12	Mackenzie Biesel	Indian River Inland Lakes	30.0
30	9	Tinly Richards	East Jordan	30.6

REGION 29

Any Big Battles?

A wild one on the boys side, with four top-11 teams with a legitimate chance of advancing. Mesick is probably a little underrated, as Ty Redman’s numbers still contain some of his rust-busting return. The three of Leland, Mason County Eastern, and Grand Traverse Academy all have similar outfits, five boys projected in the top-27 here. Leland has featured a full lineup in their NWC meets and has missed kids outside their league competition. A full lineup would be a boon. At the WMD Championship, GTA was able to squeak by MCE by a single point, crucial spots being won by their 4^th and 5^th runners. The Eagles then responded in a big way, with Kollin Spyker dropping noticeable PRs in his past two meets.

For the girls, Bear Lake and Buckley were outlined in the mid-season projections. Since that time, the two squads have faced off once – at the Northern Michigan Meet of Champions. Buckley didn’t bring a full squad, but did place four of their girls in front of Bear Lake’s 3^rd. The Lakers have kept doing their thang, all seven of their girls dropping a SB somewhere in the past few weeks.

Boys

#5 Mesick
#7 Mason County Eastern
#10 Leland
#11 Grand Traverse Academy
#23 Buckley

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Mesick	60	57	94	1 to 4
2	Mason County Eastern	69	25	76	1 to 4
3	Leland	71	14	77	1 to 4
4	Grand Traverse Academy	78	4	53	1 to 4
5	Buckley	131			5 to 6
6	Bear Lake	157			5 to 7
7	Onekama	158			5 to 8
8	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	181			6 to 8

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kyle Redman	Mesick	1.4
2	11	Nolan Koscinski	Bear Lake	2.9
3	11	Owen Jarosz	Frankfort	5.5
4	11	Lance Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	5.6
5	12	Daniel Chaney	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	5.9
6	11	Christopher Knudsen	Leland	7.5
7	11	Beckett Dennis	Grand Traverse Academy	9.3
8	10	Ethan Harrand	Buckley	10.1
9	12	Ty Redman	Mesick	10.5
10	11	Campbell Fedderman	Leland	11.2
11	10	Kyle Doty	Mesick	12.3
12	11	Kollin Spyker	Mason County Eastern	14.7
13	10	Jaxon Williams	Grand Traverse Academy	14.8
14	12	Gunnar Hallett	Mesick	15.0
15	Jr	Mason Jager	Traverse City Christian	15.7
16	11	Carter Suttmann	Leland	18.8
17	11	Kaiden Lague	Mason County Eastern	19.9
18	12	Milo Shoup	Mason County Eastern	20.1
19	10	Jimmy Kolehmainen	Frankfort	20.1
20	9	Remington Manthei	Grand Traverse Academy	20.8
21	10	Holden Preneta	Leland	20.9
22	10	Easton Harrand	Buckley	22.0
23	10	Connor Kirkman	Grand Traverse Academy	22.1
24	12	Eli Willoughby	Grand Traverse Academy	23.3
25	9	Jack Brugeman	Leland	23.6
26	9	Johnny Sinke	Onekama	24.6
27	12	Afton Shoup	Mason County Eastern	28.6
28	11	Alex Kastl	Mesick	28.8
29	9	Gabe Malik	Buckley	29.5
30	8	Eli Tarsa	Mason County Eastern	31.1

Girls

#4 Onekama
#8 Grand Traverse Academy
#18 Buckley
#20 Bear Lake

Proj. Place	Team	Proj. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Onekama	37	91	95+	1 to 2
2	Grand Traverse Academy	50	9	95+	1 to 2
3	Bear Lake	77		62	3 to 4
4	Buckley	81		38	3 to 4
5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	136			5 to 6
6	Mason County Eastern	138			5 to 6

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Callie Sinke	Onekama	1.0
2	11	Sophie Grinage	Leland	2.0
3	12	Addy Zeller	Onekama	4.3
4	10	Ava Higley	Frankfort	5.2
5	11	Melodie Hulinek	Bear Lake	5.2
6	10	Zakia Wagoner	Onekama	6.5
7	12	Natalie Burpee	Leland	7.8
8	12	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy	8.6
9	12	Tess Hoedel	Grand Traverse Academy	9.4
10	10	Tessa Rutherford	Bear Lake	9.8
11	12	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	13.1
12	10	Brooklyn Griffin	Buckley	13.2
13	12	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley	13.8
14	12	Jewlia Trowbridge	Mesick	14.7
15	11	Claire Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	16.4
16	10	Alexis Logan	Onekama	17.0
17	12	Tsune DuCheny	Buckley	17.4
18	9	Alivia Valentine	Mesick	19.0
19	10	Autumn Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	20.0
20	12	Bailey Stephen	Grand Traverse Academy	21.2
21	12	Lily Wilcoxen	Grand Traverse Academy	21.5
22	11	Payton Green	Grand Traverse Academy	22.0
23	9	Autumn Berryhill	Onekama	22.9
24	10	Lilah Szotko	Onekama	23.5
25	11	Peyton Buckner	Bear Lake	24.1
26	12	Brailyn Johnson	Mason County Eastern	25.9
27	11	Ariana Paris	Buckley	27.5
28	8	Elena Meyer	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	27.9
29	10	Bailey Lutz	Bear Lake	28.0
30	11	Aubrey Myers	Mason County Eastern	29.0

REGION 30

Any Big Battles?

The Breckenridge and Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart boys are probably guarantees. But the third qualifying spot could be anyone – Lutheran Seminary, Carson City-Crystal, Fulton, and Beal City as the four prime candidates. Lutheran Seminary leads the bunch, they have a solid frontrunner in Amos Norder and numbers behind him. Fulton needed to find a fifth guy, which they did at the MSAC Championship, having enough depth to allow their top-two (Rush Marsden and Trevor Dolloff) to have a major impact. They placed ahead of Carson City there, who didn’t have their best effort of the fall. The Eagles will need to summon their Bluejay performance in order to advance. Finally, you’ve got Beal City, who could have the widest range of outcomes. The Aggies are coming off a Northern Michigan MoC where nearly all of their athletes ran a PB/SB.

Boys

#2 Breckenridge
#8 Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
#27 Michigan Lutheran Seminary

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Breckenridge	23	95+	95+	1st
2	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	56		95+	2nd
3	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	118		54	3 to 5
4	Carson City-Crystal	128		28	3 to 7
5	Fulton	135		12	3 to 7
6	Beal City	145		6	3 to 8
7	Saginaw Arts & Science	151			4 to 8
8	Montabella	166			5 to 8

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge	1.9
2	10	Abram Fettig	Saginaw Nouvel	2.0
3	12	Brady Edwards	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	2.9
4	9	Cooper Burt	Breckenridge	3.3
5	12	Dom Chiverton	Breckenridge	7.1
6	10	Gus Barr	Breckenridge	7.1
7	12	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	7.1
8	12	Rush Marsden	Fulton	7.7
9	10	James Sanders	Breckenridge	8.7
10	12	Amos Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	11.9
11	12	Trevor Dolloff	Fulton	12.5
12	10	Callen Eldred	Montabella	12.6
13	10	Oliver Burt	Breckenridge	14.2
14	10	Zach Waite	Breckenridge	14.3
15	12	Noah Dubridge	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	14.3
16	11	Cayd Wohlscheid	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	14.4
17	12	Zayden Buskirk	Carson City-Crystal	20.2
18	10	Daniel Malott	Saginaw Nouvel	22.3
19	12	Payton Crawfis	Carson City-Crystal	23.6
20	12	Logan Whitmer	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	23.6
21	11	Owen Zeien	Beal City	24.4
22	10	Eli Baker	Coleman	24.9
23	11	Solomon Miller	Saginaw Arts & Science	26.0
24	12	Braylon Satterlee	Carson City-Crystal	27.4
25	10	Simon Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	27.7
26	9	Ethan Schmidt	St. Charles	28.3
27	10	William Laubenthal	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	29.4
28	11	Jonathan Egan	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	30.2
29	11	Easton Eichorn	Beal City	30.5
30	11	Wesley Schram	Vestaburg	31.5

Girls

#9 Breckenridge
#22 Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
#26 Michigan Lutheran Seminary

Proj. Place	Team	Proj. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Breckenridge	33	95+	95+	1st
2	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	54		95+	2 to 3
3	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	60		95+	2 to 3
4	Fulton	75			4th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Taylor Wills	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	2.2
2	9	Gabby Weigold	Breckenridge	4.1
3	11	Skylar Maclennan	Fulton	5.3
4	11	Peyton Rohn	Fulton	5.4
5	10	Maezee Humm	Breckenridge	6.3
6	10	Sadie Mueller	St. Charles	6.9
7	11	Maizy Matthews	Breckenridge	7.1
8	12	Ryann Ball	Montabella	7.4
9	9	Maddie Howes	Breckenridge	9.3
10	12	Jessica Stouten	Vestaburg	9.6
11	9	Emma Getchell	Merrill	12.7
12	11	Dilyn Colpean	Merrill	15.8
13	9	Devan Smith	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	16.5
14	11	Piper Schultz	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	16.7
15	11	Saralynn Shelley	Montabella	17.4
16	12	Ellie Bowerman	Beal City	17.9
17	12	Raina Glanzman	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	17.9
18	10	Natalie Kettler	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	18.7
19	11	Anna McCarty	Carson City-Crystal	19.4
20	9	Kylee Anderson	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	19.5
21	9	Sarah Witten	Saginaw Nouvel	20.0
22	9	Sophie Ellison	Coleman	20.6
23	12	Nolee Leppert	Beal City	21.0
24	9	Savanna Harvey	Merrill	23.4
25	9	Brooklynn Porter	Montabella	23.5
26	12	Greta Schroeder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	25.3
27	9	Allie Shelley	Breckenridge	25.6
28	10	Kacie Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	26.3
29	12	Kaylynn Seeley	Vestaburg	29.2
30	9	Renata Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	30.0

REGION 31

Any Big Battles?

Talk about a tough one. You’ve got two ranked squads, Fowler and Holton, both of whom would have a decent chance of advancing through most of the other regions, likely with zero prospects of moving onto MIS. With Holland Calvary Christian’s presence, most of these contenders are pushed back in points. That gives Tri-Unity Christian a bit of an advantage, as Lincoln Laansma can finish ahead of their pack, TUC needing to only score four more. Martin and Gobles have hooked up a ton recently, mainly in league action and major invites. Martin has usually prevailed, though Portage showed the pathway in which Gobles could advance. The Tigers beat TUC at the 2^nd-5^th spots, and the advantage gained by Laansma will lessen in a smaller field.

Boys

#1 Holland Calvary Christian
#9 Martin
#14 Tri-Unity Christian
#16 Gobles
#21 Fowler
#22 Holton

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Holland Calvary Christian	18	95+	95+	1st
2	Martin	86		95+	2 to 3
3	Tri-Unity Christian	106		58	2 to 4
4	Gobles	110		42	2 to 4
5	Fowler	140			5 to 6
6	Holton	152			5 to 6
7	Byron Center Zion Christian	193			7 to 9
8	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	203			7 to 10
9	White Cloud	210			7 to 9
10	Muskegon Catholic Central	237			9 to 10

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	1.1
2	12	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	2.1
3	12	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	2.9
4	12	Brody VanTuinen	Holland Calvary Christian	4.6
5	11	Reagan Downing	Holland Calvary Christian	5.4
6	12	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian	5.8
7	12	Francis Austen	Portland St. Patrick	6.3
8	12	Owen Ledebuhr	Holland Calvary Christian	6.8
9	10	Thomas Sigler	Martin	10.8
10	10	Fletcher Amos	Gobles	10.8
11	9	Linkon Utter	Holland Calvary Christian	11.0
12	11	Keannan Marr	Holton	13.0
13	11	Jackson Anderson	Muskegon Catholic Central	13.1
14	11	Joseph Coon	White Cloud	14.2
15	10	Logan Platte	Fowler	16.0
16	11	Jeremiah VanHouten	Martin	16.5
17	12	Hunter Hayes	Martin	17.7
18	12	Jadon Dettmann	Martin	20.7
19	12	Landon Miller	Fowler	20.9
20	11	Cole Ringel	Gobles	22.3
21	11	Levi Knoop	Portland St. Patrick	22.4
22	11	Levi Collins	Gobles	23.9
23	10	Caden Amerine	Tri-Unity Christian	24.5
24	9	Eli Kaighen	Tri-Unity Christian	25.5
25	8	Isaac Koros	Tri-Unity Christian	25.7
26	12	Caleb Leys	White Cloud	26.0
27	12	Gari Salvador-Garcia	Martin	28.2
28	12	Kole Nichols	Holton	28.2
29	10	Mason Shanafelt	Holton	28.5
30	11	Jack Feenstra	Byron Center Zion Christian	30.8

Girls

#3 Gobles
#5 Martin
#13 Fowler
#23 Byron Center Zion Christian

Proj. Place	Team	Proj. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Gobles	41	89	95+	1 to 2
2	Martin	49	11	95+	1 to 3
3	Fowler	65		90	2 to 4
4	Byron Center Zion Christian	81		10	3 to 4
5	White Cloud	136			5th
6	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	153			6th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Libby Smith	Gobles	1.2
2	12	Veyda Conley	Martin	2.1
3	9	Faith Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	2.9
4	12	Ava DeYoung	Gobles	5.5
5	10	Ryleigh Alderink	Holton	5.6
6	12	Lindsey Nordyke	Byron Center Zion Christian	6.4
7	11	Julia White	Portland St. Patrick	6.9
8	12	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles	7.0
9	11	Zoe Fabing	Fowler	9.4
10	9	Clara Thelen	Fowler	10.8
11	11	Allison Rodgers	Martin	10.9
12	9	Audreona Gillette	White Cloud	12.6
13	12	Sara Schipper	Martin	13.7
14	12	Marian Davlin	Portland St. Patrick	13.8
15	12	Bailey Case	Pentwater	16.2
16	12	Elise Suwyn	Byron Center Zion Christian	16.5
17	10	Emma Dettmann	Martin	18.5
18	9	Annie Koenigsknecht	Fowler	18.9
19	12	Shang Shi	Gobles	20.3
20	9	Madilynn Schneider	Fowler	20.4
21	11	Jenessa Kleyn	Byron Center Zion Christian	21.3
22	8	Aerianna Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	21.5
23	11	Addison Tomsic	Gobles	23.2
24	10	Riley Bender	Martin	24.1
25	10	Nora Schultz	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	27.8
26	11	Madison Deutschmann	Byron Center Zion Christian	27.9
27	9	Heidi Lockwood	Muskegon Catholic Central	27.9
28	11	Laura Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	28.3
29	9	Ella Collins	Gobles	28.4
30	11	DuRae Sage	Martin	29.4

REGION 32

Any Big Battles?

Straightforward it appears on the qualifiers, but perhaps some drama on the girls winner? Kalamazoo Hackett and Bridgman have been in close contact over the past few weeks, competing and finishing alongside one another at Portage, Christian Comet, and in their SAC Championship. Hackett has won in the two invites, Bridgman in league action. The formula for the Irish has typically been relying on their strength up front, Kiera Piper opening up a gap in the standings, then holding serve through the rest of their scorers. At the SAC Championship, Anna Howell didn’t stray far from Piper, then the Bees did work through the rest of their scorers, picking up points in 3 of the 4 other spots.

Boys

#12 Kalamazoo Hackett
#24 Bridgman

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Kalamazoo Hackett	30	95+	95+	1st
2	Bridgman	67		95+	2 to 3
3	White Pigeon	71		95+	2 to 4
4	Eau Claire	94		5	3 to 4
5	Battle Creek St. Philip	133			5 to 6
6	Athens	141			5 to 6
7	Colon	175			7th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Elias Baldwin	Decatur	1.0
2	9	Benjamin Bolinder	Bridgman	2.9
3	12	Kellen Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	4.2
4	10	Carson Ernsberger	Bridgman	4.3
5	12	Max Barron	Tekonsha	4.6
6	10	Lukasz Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	7.3
7	12	Aiden Jakcson	White Pigeon	8.3
8	12	Colin Gallagher	Kalamazoo Hackett	9.0
9	10	Henry Young	Kalamazoo Hackett	10.4
10	9	Griffin Bandeen	Battle Creek St. Philip	10.5
11	10	Karston Kappenman	Kalamazoo Hackett	10.8
12	9	Blake Morrison	Climax-Scotts	13.2
13	12	Dillan Vargas-Tovar	Eau Claire	15.4
14	9	Gabe Basch	Kalamazoo Hackett	15.5
15	12	Dilan Vargas-Tovar	Eau Claire	16.2
16	10	Isaac Doubblestein	White Pigeon	16.7
17	11	William Throw	White Pigeon	18.6
18	11	Lamond Stanfill	Decatur	19.5
19	9	Chance Salmon	Bridgman	20.5
20	9	Emory Ansley	Athens	21.3
21	12	Dillan Vargas	Eau Claire	21.6
22	11	Matthew McGahan	White Pigeon	21.9
23	10	Rowen Brunner	Kalamazoo Hackett	22.0
24	9	Hudson Becker	Bridgman	24.5
25	12	Kyron Christner	Mendon	24.9
26	11	Angel Villanueva	Covert	26.0
27	11	James Muir	Battle Creek St. Philip	26.4
28	10	Tanner Ritchie	White Pigeon	27.8
29	9	Corey White	White Pigeon	28.4
30	10	Zack Wiley	White Pigeon	28.9

Girls

#14 Bridgman
#16 Kalamazoo Hackett

Proj. Place	Team	Proj. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Bridgman	34	65	95+	1 to 2
2	Kalamazoo Hackett	37	35	95+	1 to 2
3	Decatur	71		95+	3rd
4	White Pigeon	92			4th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kiera Piper	Kalamazoo Hackett	1.1
2	11	Anna Howell	Bridgman	2.3
3	10	Cayla Buss	Decatur	4.8
4	12	Lauryn Evans	Howardsville Christian	6.1
5	11	Delaney McBride	Kalamazoo Hackett	6.2
6	9	Caroline Conklin	Bridgman	7.0
7	11	Kaylin Pinkowski	Bridgman	7.4
8	12	Aubrey Miller	White Pigeon	8.4
9	12	Sarah Stemaly	Athens	10.4
10	11	Abigail Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	10.8
11	10	Therese Willis	Kalamazoo Hackett	12.4
12	11	Carmen Ernsberger	Bridgman	12.8
13	11	Amaya Majewski	Decatur	12.8
14	11	Evangeline Brown	Bridgman	14.3
15	10	Belle Noga	Colon	14.9
16	11	Alyssa Morrison	Climax-Scotts	15.7
17	9	Koa Ehlert	Bridgman	16.0
18	10	Grace Ulbrich	Kalamazoo Hackett	16.9
19	12	Emmy Nofs	Battle Creek St. Philip	18.2
20	10	Hannah Caudell	Bridgman	18.9
21	11	Grace Pattee	Decatur	22.0
22	9	Yaretzi Capula-Bravo	Eau Claire	22.1
23	12	Mia Doubblestein	White Pigeon	24.4
24	9	Mary Vogel	Kalamazoo Hackett	24.7
25	10	Annabell Bent	Marcellus	24.8
26	12	Avallene Kimp	Marcellus	25.5
27	10	Brooklyn Marshall	Mendon	26.0
28	9	Topanga Fields	Climax-Scotts	26.3
29	9	Olga Strenge	Battle Creek St. Philip	28.1
30	10	Lisette Kimp	Marcellus	28.5

REGION 33

Any Big Battles?

Another one loaded with a MIS contender and many ranked teams in the close background. Whitmore Lake, the 3x defending champions, hoping to make it four. They’ve been racing at their best in the past few weeks and should advance without much of a hitch. Beyond the Trojans, four teams are in a clash for three spots – Genesee Christian, Novi Christian Academy, and Dansville.

The teams all have different pathways to a state berth. Dansville relies on two strong low-sticks. Novi Christian has the ability to place six girls in the top-30 here. Genesee Christian has a blend of the two, Faith Smith as a lead girl, then depth to back her up. Of late, we’ve seen matchups featuring the three teams. Dansville took a southeast trek to Novi Christian’s Small School invite. Madalyn Stolz was not present, but one can extrapolate with her in the picture that the Aggies could keep it close. Stolz was around for an early October DeWitt Invite matchup with Genesee Christian. The depth mentioned above came through for the Soldier women. All seven varsity girls placed ahead of Dansville’s 3^rd, moving Genesee Christian to a 10-pt. margin over Dansville.

Boys

#4 Whitmore Lake
#15 Genesee Christian
#20 Novi Christian Academy

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Whitmore Lake	30	95+	95+	1st
2	Genesee Christian	70		95+	2 to 3
3	Novi Christian Academy	79		95+	2 to 4
4	Byron	97		7	3 to 4
5	Dansville	124			5 to 6
6	Webberville	134			5 to 6
7	Morrice	176			7th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Samuel McIndoe	Novi Christian Academy	2.5
2	11	Leo Weaver	Whitmore Lake	2.7
3	11	Nolan Stadel	Genesee Christian	6.5
4	12	Joseph White	Ann Arbor Rudolf Steiner	6.7
5	12	Eric Junker	Whitmore Lake	7.4
6	11	Nolan Collins	Whitmore Lake	8.3
7	11	Richard Lewis	Whitmore Lake	8.8
8	11	Nathan West	Webberville	9.2
9	12	Halston Hooley	Byron	9.9
10	11	Jackson Onofre	Novi Christian Academy	10.7
11	12	Brody Jeruzal	Ann Arbor Christian	10.7
12	9	Cole Dillon	Whitmore Lake	11.5
13	11	Donovan Wells	Potterville	12.8
14	12	Benjamin Fox	Whitmore Lake	13.0
15	10	Carter Castilla	Dansville	14.2
16	12	Brayden Steele	Byron	14.2
17	12	Kasey Springer	Whitmore Lake	15.7
18	10	Maverick Kirkman	Genesee Christian	18.0
19	9	Thomas Hubbard	Livingston Christian	22.4
20	11	Will Oskey	Genesee Christian	22.7
21	11	Evan Klish	Novi Christian Academy	23.5
22	8	Will Ferguson	Genesee Christian	23.8
23	10	Gabe Schultz	Genesee Christian	24.2
24	10	Jack Bell	Novi Christian Academy	25.3
25	10	Ryan Stewart	Genesee Christian	25.7
26	11	Reid Hacker	Dansville	26.8
27	10	Kai Hopkins	Potterville	26.8
28	12	Jonah Spencer	Webberville	28.4
29	12	Luke Meyer	Lansing Christian	29.5
30	10	Abram Jones	Dansville	30.2

Girls

#2 Whitmore Lake
#10 Genesee Christian
#11 Novi Christian Academy
#15 Dansville
#19 Clarkston Everest Collegiate

Proj. Place	Team	Proj. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Whitmore Lake	42	95+	95+	1st
2	Genesee Christian	73		83	2 to 4
3	Novi Christian Academy	77		66	2 to 5
4	Dansville	80		49	2 to 5
5	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	96			4 to 5
6	Lansing Christian	123			6th
7	Frankel Jewish Academy	209			7th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake	1.1
2	9	Grace Jolin	Dansville	3.3
3	10	Faith Smith	Genesee Christian	4.2
4	9	Amy Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	5.5
5	11	Malynda Lambros	Whitmore Lake	5.6
6	9	Madalyn Stolz	Dansville	6.2
7	9	Sierra Sherer	Whitmore Lake	9.0
8	9	June Counts	Whitmore Lake	10.0
9	11	Madison Markowicz	Novi Christian Academy	10.4
10	12	Adrienne Mitchell	Lansing Christian	10.4
11	9	Rachel Spaulding	Livingston Christian	12.1
12	11	Lila Wolcott	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	12.3
13	12	Evelyn McIndoe	Novi Christian Academy	12.3
14	8	Hermella Samson	Novi Christian Academy	12.8
15	11	Andi Kirkman	Genesee Christian	13.2
16	8	Paizley Kirkman	Genesee Christian	15.7
17	12	Caroline Darrah	Whitmore Lake	17.5
18	11	Gabriella Wood	Lansing Christian	19.3
19	11	Ariana Stewart	Genesee Christian	19.5
20	11	Allison Schmitt	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	19.6
21	10	Cassa Minnis	Dansville	21.2
22	12	Grace Bell	Novi Christian Academy	23.5
23	12	Makenna Bush	Lansing Christian	26.6
24	8	Zoe Schultz	Genesee Christian	27.0
25	10	Helene Farrell	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	27.6
26	10	Mikayla Brown	Genesee Christian	27.7
27	11	Miriam Jiran	Novi Christian Academy	28.1
28	10	Grace Darrah	Whitmore Lake	29.8
29	9	Brooklynn Dubuc	Novi Christian Academy	30.6
30	10	Alexis Kadluboski	Dansville	30.6

REGION 34

Any Big Battles?

For once, a drama-free one. I’ll eat my hat if anyone other than these six projected qualifiers advance.

Boys

#3 Hillsdale Academy
#13 Sand Creek
#19 Manchester
#25 Concord

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Hillsdale Academy	19	95+	95+	1st
2	Sand Creek	60		95+	2 to 2
3	Manchester	85		92	3 to 4
4	Concord	96		8	3 to 4
5	Petersburg-Summerfield	147			5 to 6
6	Addison	156			5 to 6
7	Jackson Preparatory	180			6 to 7

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Peter Winn	Hillsdale Academy	2.3
2	10	Stephen Holm	Hillsdale Academy	2.3
3	10	Henry Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	2.7
4	12	Alec Dodak	Manchester	3.9
5	12	Timothy Gaebler	Hillsdale Academy	4.5
6	10	Blake Root	Sand Creek	7.0
7	11	Jacob Tatsak	Adrian Lenawee Christian	7.9
8	12	Silas Daniels	Sand Creek	8.5
9	12	Carson Van Sickle	Hillsdale Academy	8.7
10	12	John Birzer	Hillsdale Academy	9.5
11	12	Ryan Miller	Hillsdale Academy	11.2
12	9	Evan Johnson	Manchester	11.6
13	12	Keaton Smith	Concord	14.2
14	10	Brayden Winsted	Sand Creek	14.4
15	10	Jase Herendeen	Concord	16.2
16	12	Tre Fluker	Sand Creek	17.6
17	10	Thomas Bastian	Jackson Preparatory	17.7
18	11	David Arbogast	Vandercook Lake	18.3
19	10	Alec Parker	Sand Creek	18.5
20	12	Ethan Hittle	Manchester	21.0
21	Jr	Tony Gudakunst	Addison	21.4
22	12	Michael Navitskis	Manchester	24.1
23	10	Finn Hutchinson	Concord	24.7
24	10	Asher Church	Hillsdale Will Carleton	25.5
25	12	Colin Brown	Petersburg-Summerfield	25.8
26	12	Kadin Shook	Concord	25.9
27	12	Liam Bauman	Concord	27.1
28	10	Connor Evans	Addison	27.9
29	10	Luke Meckley	Sand Creek	28.0
30	11	Zachary Prater	Sand Creek	29.4

Girls

#1 Hillsdale Academy
#7 Concord
#25 Manchester

Proj. Place	Team	Proj. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Hillsdale Academy	21	95+	95+	1st
2	Concord	44		95+	2nd
3	Manchester	81		95+	3 to 4
4	Sand Creek	100			3 to 4
5	Pittsford	137			5th
6	Jackson Preparatory	172			6th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Evelyn Meyer	Hillsdale Academy	1.2
2	10	Audrey Pyle	Concord	2.9
3	10	Heather Morris	Hillsdale Academy	4.5
4	10	Eliza Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	5.8
5	9	Norah Tracy	Hillsdale Academy	6.4
6	11	Lorelei Stemme	Hillsdale Academy	7.0
7	12	Moira Beier	Hillsdale Academy	7.5
8	10	Audrey Rinehart	Concord	7.7
9	12	Haley Stimer	Concord	7.7
10	12	Maren Gehrke	Hillsdale Academy	9.0
11	9	Eden Weidmayer	Manchester	10.4
12	9	Madeline Zahner	Manchester	13.4
13	10	Olivia Chadwell	Concord	14.6
14	10	Braelynn Thorrez	Concord	15.0
15	11	Allison Ost	Petersburg-Summerfield	15.7
16	12	Caroline Mason	Manchester	17.2
17	11	Mya Barrett	Concord	17.8
18	12	Kendall Plate	Adrian Lenawee Christian	18.5
19	9	Peyton Shiels	Britton Deerfield	18.7
20	9	Remi Maynard	Britton Deerfield	19.0
21	11	Ellie Woodring	Addison	20.0
22	11	Abby Raymond	Petersburg-Summerfield	20.3
23	11	Madalynn Trame	Sand Creek	20.6
24	11	Makayla Six	Sand Creek	25.0
25	12	Julianna Tanner	Sand Creek	26.2
26	12	Lillian Jagielski	Pittsford	27.3
27	12	Teagan Clarke	Manchester	27.4
28	11	Haily Baker	Sand Creek	27.7
29	9	Grace Gillin	Addison	30.1
30	12	Dannyell Grimes	Sand Creek	31.8

REGION 35

Any Big Battles?

Ranked or unranked, the four boys teams of Marlette, Ubly, Kingston, and Mayville should turn in a fun one. All of the four could finish first. All of the four could finish fourth.

Ubly has moved up the most from the Mid-Season Projections, their odds increasing due to the improvement of Mason Warner. The Bearcat freshman has progressed from a 20+ min. kid to one that’s popped mid-18’s in two of his past three races. Kingston has a security blanket through a strong top-two, Thijs Van Rijn and Brennan Robinson each running in the 17’s on a few occasions this year. Marlette’s advantage gains the further we get in the race. At Ubly, the Red Raiders’ 3^rd-5^th guys were better than any of the similar spots from these competing teams. Mayville has slipped a bit in the projections, although that Ubly performance had the Wildcats only 8 pts. back of Ubly.

Boys

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Marlette	61	52	89	1 to 4
2	Kingston	65	18	94	1 to 4
3	Ubly	67	23	83	1 to 4
4	Mayville	77	7	34	1 to 4
5	Deckerville	104			5 to 6
6	Vassar	118			5 to 6

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Wyatt Blohm	Vassar	1.7
2	11	Levi Fitchett	Dryden	2.8
3	10	Weston Guza	Ubly	4.0
4	12	Thijs Van Rijn	Kingston	4.2
5	12	Brennan Robinson	Kingston	4.6
6	12	Wesley Kosinski	Kinde North Huron	9.1
7	10	Tucker Gascoyne	Memphis	10.1
8	11	Dominic Cardillo	Caseville	10.3
9	10	Steven Budreau	Mayville	10.7
10	11	Brayden Kirkpatrick	Marlette	11.2
11	9	Landon Messing	Deckerville	12.4
12	9	Mason Warner	Ubly	12.7
13	9	Keaton Evans	Marlette	13.5
14	11	Cameron Harrison	Brown City	14.7
15	11	Joe Lubeski	Caseville	17.7
16	11	James Emmons	Mayville	19.6
17	10	Bryson LaFond	Kingston	20.0
18	11	Braylon McLellan	Deckerville	20.5
19	9	Landyn Torrey	Marlette	21.1
20	9	Elishah Butler	New Life Christian Academy	21.7
21	12	Timothy Venia	Mayville	23.1
22	12	Tyler Roberts	Dryden	23.8
23	12	Walker Chapin	Marlette	23.9
24	9	Joel McDonald	Ubly	24.0
25	10	Lucas Volmering	Ubly	24.3
26	10	Kaeden Woodworth	Marlette	24.6
27	11	Nolen Gruehn	Owendale-Gagetown	25.9
28	11	Gabe Grymonprez	Mayville	26.7
29	10	Noah Gobie	Deckerville	29.1
30	10	Jesse Jacobi	Caseville	29.5

Girls

#17 Ubly

Proj. Place	Team	Proj. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Ubly	30	95+	95+	1st
2	Kingston	45		95+	2 to 3
3	Kinde North Huron	54		95+	2 to 3

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Norah Kiley	Kingston	1.1
2	9	Sophia Messing	Deckerville	3.0
3	10	Isabella West	Mayville	4.8
4	11	Payton King	Kingston	4.8
5	11	Claire Wright	Dryden	5.0
6	11	Myah Peruski	Ubly	7.9
7	11	Abbygail Plester	Ubly	8.0
8	10	Ella Gustner	Dryden	8.2
9	11	Peyten Albertson	Marlette	8.7
10	12	Adela Chocholova	Caseville	12.8
11	10	Fiona Phillips	Kinde North Huron	13.3
12	9	Summer Franzel	Ubly	14.1
13	11	Kayle Talaski	Kinde North Huron	14.4
14	9	Rylee Rawlings	Ubly	15.5
15	11	Nele Boettner	Ubly	15.6
16	11	Allison Steeb	Deckerville	15.6
17	12	Aspen Jimkoski	Kinde North Huron	15.9
18	10	Emma Freeland	Kingston	17.0
19	9	Eva Klee	Ubly	18.3
20	9	Brooklon Prowse	Brown City	20.1
21	11	Brooklyn Morell	Ubly	20.7
22	11	Sophia Lawrence	Memphis	21.0
23	12	Paytyn Sweat	Vassar	22.5
24	9	Kaylee Byars	Marlette	22.5
25	9	Kynsleigh Roskey	Brown City	23.8
26	10	Caradee Seaman	Marlette	24.6
27	–	Shayla Messing	Owendale-Gagetown	25.8
28	12	Elizabeth Schultz	Peck	29.6
29	11	Grace Woodall	Brown City	30.0
30	11	Bella Eash	Memphis	30.1

REGION 36

Any Big Battles?

Two of ‘em, both on the boys side – Cardinal Mooney vs. Royal Oak Shrine for the win and the triumvirate of Allen Park Cabrini, Ivywood Classical Academy, and Auburn Hills Oakland Christian potentially in a battle for the third spot.

First, the title contenders. Since the mid-season mark, Shrine has made up serious ground. A major factor came just once, Liam Hatterman’s 18:33 at Columbus County Park. Hatterman has raced that single time, thus he’s listed in here. A more reliable factor would be the improvement of Owen Nagey, who just slipped under 20:00 for the first time in his career. From that meet at CCP, Cardinal Mooney was able to place ahead of Shrine in the standings, greatly aided by their forceful top-two, Liam Knuth and Micah Arlow. All year, these two have sped ahead of the pack, both boasting SB’s of 17:30 or faster.

Ivywood Classical Academy is a school I’m certain I’ve never mentioned on here. Definitely not this year, but the Eagles brought a full scoring squad to this past weekend’s Haunted Harvest. They’ve got a lead guy in Silas Carroll and a consistent younger sibling in Luke Carroll behind him. One race in the database leads to high ranges of outcomes, ICA projected to be anywhere from 3^rd to 6^th. But so too are Cabrini and Oakland Christian. Cabrini’s Joey Grant is fresh off a PR at the CHSL Cardinal Championship, a nice rebound from his Wayne County race. Jose Thomassen from Oakland Christian also has been shattering PR’s lately, dropping into the low-19’s when he was above 21:00 just meets prior. Which performances come from depth will determine the fate of these three teams.

Boys

#17 Cardinal Mooney Catholic
#18 Royal Oak Shrine

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Royal Oak Shrine	60	55	95+	1 to 2
2	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	60	45	95+	1 to 2
3	Allen Park Cabrini	111		49	3 to 6
4	Ivywood Classical Academy	114		29	3 to 6
5	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	117		22	3 to 6
6	Lutheran Westland	131			5 to 7
7	Austin Catholic	151			6 to 8
8	Southfield Christian	161			7 to 8
9	Detroit Frederick Douglass	226			9 to 10
10	Detroit Davis Aerospace	229			9 to 10

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Liam Knuth	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	2.0
2	12	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard	2.1
3	10	Gavin Bowers	Austin Catholic	2.8
4	12	Silas Carroll	Ivywood Classical Academy	4.5
5	12	Micah Arlow	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	4.9
6	11	Will Bernacki	Royal Oak Shrine	7.2
7	12	Christian Brash	Allen Park Cabrini	8.6
8	9	Luke Carroll	Ivywood Classical Academy	10.5
9	9	Liam Hatterman	Royal Oak Shrine	10.7
10	11	Nolan Mazur	Riverview Gabriel Richard	12.4
11	11	Dominic DeVeny	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	12.5
12	11	Ethan Wielgat	Royal Oak Shrine	12.6
13	12	Gabe Shaffer	Royal Oak Shrine	12.6
14	11	Barron Denham	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	13.0
15	12	Uzziel Thomassen	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	14.5
16	11	Joshua Brooks	Detroit Frederick Douglass	14.8
17	11	Emanuel Nava	Allen Park Cabrini	19.8
18	12	Ian Scott	Lutheran Westland	20.2
19	9	Luke Bowers	Austin Catholic	20.7
20	10	Maximilian Van de Vyver	Austin Catholic	21.0
21	12	Anthony Parker	Lutheran Westland	22.2
22	9	Jose Thomassen	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	22.8
23	11	Xavier Zammit	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	23.6
24		Lochlan Cole	Lutheran Westland	23.9
25	11	Declan O’Connell	Allen Park Cabrini	24.7
26	10	Owen Nagey	Royal Oak Shrine	25.2
27	9	Liam Guyor	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	25.6
28	12	Ethan Lentz	Sterling Heights Parkway Christian	29.0
29	10	Daniel Smith	Riverview Gabriel Richard	29.9
30	11	Matthew Johnson	Southfield Christian	31.7

Girls

#6 Royal Oak Shrine
#12 Lutheran Westland

Proj. Place	Team	Proj. Score	Win %	Top-3 %	Range
1	Royal Oak Shrine	33	93	95+	1 to 2
2	Lutheran Westland	42	7	95+	1 to 2
3	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	72		89	3 to 4
4	Southfield Christian	85		11	3 to 4
5	Riverview Gabriel Richard	120			5th

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Cassidy Bowers	Austin Catholic	1.3
2	11	Ava Bates	Lutheran Westland	2.1
3	11	Ella Lamb	Royal Oak Shrine	3.6
4	9	Kara Unger	Lutheran Westland	5.5
5	12	Sydney Erickson	Lutheran Westland	7.2
6	10	Audrey Molnar	Lutheran Westland	7.9
7	12	Annie Wernet	Hope Christian Academy	7.9
8	9	Delilah Russ	Bellevue	8.1
9	9	Kennedy Geden	Royal Oak Shrine	8.2
10	12	Louisa Denks	Royal Oak Shrine	8.9
11	10	Lilianna Carroll	Ivywood Classical Academy	9.9
12	10	Paige Arlow	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	12.3
13	12	Josephine Malcolm	Royal Oak Shrine	14.4
14	10	Rose O’Connor	Austin Catholic	15.9
15	11	Ella Daly	Royal Oak Shrine	16.5
16	10	Katherine Riches	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	17.5
17	10	Abigail VanHooser	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	17.8
18	10	Yadhira Thomassen	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	19.1
19	9	Madelyn Robinson	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	19.4
20	10	Cecila Bomberski	Royal Oak Shrine	20.3
21	12	Avery Trepod	Southfield Christian	20.3
22	10	Camille Behnan	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	21.0
23	12	Caramia DeGiulio	Southfield Christian	22.7
24	10	Josephine Wesley	Riverview Gabriel Richard	23.6
25	12	Ella Clarke	Southfield Christian	23.9
26	9	Abigail Salamon	Southfield Christian	25.2
27	10	Dania Wojdyla	Royal Oak Shrine	25.5
28	11	Violet Hill	Birmingham Roeper	28.0
29	10	Zoe Barrera	Riverview Gabriel Richard	28.2
30	9	Aurora Meagher	Ivywood Classical Academy	28.3

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REGION 10

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REGION 11

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REGION 13

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REGION 27

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REGION 28

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REGION 29

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