Category: 2020 Previews

2020 Previews

An Early Look: Region 21-3

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Teams

Delton-Kellogg
Fennville
GR Wellspring Prep
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
Grandville Calvin Christian
Holland Black River
Kent City
Lakeview
Montague
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
North Muskegon
Ravenna
Saranac
Stanton-Central Montcalm

Boys

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Grandville Calvin Christian (5), Montague (24)

Highest Rated Seniors

Like Dean Reynolds profiled a few days ago, Luke was on the cusp of the 50 Tickets list.  He’s your defending regional champion and owns a PB in the low 16’s.  That 16:13 at Portage represented a 45 second drop from 2018.  Taking a peek at his summer training, it’s easy to tell how that improvement came about, Luke has quietly been putting in the miles, and given the times on his workouts, is capable of improving at a similar rate. 

It seems as if Grayson has been at Saranac for a thousand years, his name constantly popping up in the top tier of any results.  He’s been under 17:00 and top-5 in his region during all three years.  Last year, he was able to avenge a 55th place finish (and unusually subpar race) the previous year to reach his 2nd All-State honor.

Emerald showed a bit of promise as a sophomore (his first year of XC), with a gigantic PR at Regionals.  At Portage this year, he was able to surpass that PR, running 16:49.  At this region, he was able to break 17:00 once again, finishing in 5th place.  Along with Summer Fast, one of my favorite names of anyone in the sport.

Career Achievement

Each of the past two years, Micah has been able to come in with a clutch performance late.  As a sophomore, it was at regionals, where he ran a 0:35 PR and in an upset, snuck into the top-15.  As a junior, that performance came at State, his first sub-17 and All-State effort.

Anyone Else?

Even though it may not have shown late, Dan realized his potential in 2019.  He must have a special place in his heart for Shepherd (many do – voted the best course in Michigan), as he has PRed both years there.  He lowered his best by almost a minute, from 17:42 to 16:47.  He reached that sub-17 mark only once the rest of the year, but was able to achieve his first All-Region finish.

Andrew was a great MS runner, racing into the low 11’s both on the track and XC course.  As a freshman, it didn’t take long for him to acquit himself to the extra distance.  He ran a few low-18 performances in the early season, then was able to make his breakthrough in championship season.  A 17:30 here was his personal best, then he followed that up with a 17:45 at MIS. 

Montague will be relying heavily on its ability to pack up, and Owen will likely be at the front of that pack.  He started his freshman year reasonably well; any coach would be happy with a youngster running in the 18’s.  But he turned it on late with a 17:49 at Chippewa Hills (not an easy course), and a 19th place finish here. 

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Grandville Calvin Christian (2), Grand Rapids Covenant Christian (11), Muskegon Western Michigan Christian (23), Kent City (24)

Highest Rated Seniors

Catherine has been consistently been a sub-20 runner for GCC.  She first hit that mark at regionals as a freshman, then has been there many times since.  A few races last year stick out – 4th place at Portage, 1st at Saranac, and most importantly, 1st at Regionals.  She’s got a little speed too, having run 62/2:22 on the track.

As with Catherine, Layla has been a solid athlete all three years.  She has the victories, winning the CSAA Silver, Sparta, and Kent City Long Lake.  She has the times, nearly breaking 19:00 early in her sophomore year.  And she has the big race experience, twice in the top-20 in Brooklyn.

Not sure how she was skipped over last year in these projections, but Ashley has been right there her whole career as well.  She reached a new level late last year, running a personal best here at this region and nabbing her first top-50 State finish. 

Career Achievement

Profile.

To discuss career achievement and a Calvin Christian girl, one has to discuss their team accomplishments.  With Leanne running in the past two years, they’ve finished top-3 both times.  She’s been an integral contributor as well, finishing in the top-100 both years, an All-State level performance last year too.

Anyone Else?

In terms of my projections, Jonathah was a shocker.  Those projections had her outside of the top-20 at Regionals and outside the top-30 at State.  She finished 5th here, then grabbed that last All-State spot.  For much of the season, she ran in the 22-23:00 range, but slipped under 20:00 in her final two races.

Gabriella showed much promise in her sophomore season, in a few races, running over a minute faster than her freshman year.  A Few that stick out are Pete Moss (22:00 to 20:17) and Portage (21:37 to 20:26).  Unfortunately, her season ended at Portage.  Hopefully in 2020, we get to see her compete for a full season.

In her three seasons at Black River, Mia has been a big race runner.  During her 9th and 10th grade years, she was able to turn it up late into All-State and sub-20 performances.  She hovered around that mark this past year, didn’t break through, but still managed a 42nd place finish.

2020 Previews

An Early Look: Region 22-3

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Teams

Bangor
Bloomingdale
Bridgman
Bronson
Buchanan
Centreville
Coloma
Constantine
Galesburg-Augusta
Hartford
Lawton
Niles Brandywine
Parchment
Schoolcraft
Watervliet

Boys

As with many regions, a bit of change has occurred.  Saugatuck, always on that Division 3/4 border, moves back into 4.  Bridgman comes in from Division 4 and Bronson moves west from Region 23.  Bronson was an extremely young team in 2019, their top 7 runners all underclassmen.  They were unable to qualify as a team, but given the vast improvement seen in youngsters, should be a force to reckon with.  The battle for 3rd is as tight as you’ll find, Coloma likely being the steadiest bet, having six quality runners to fall back on. 

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Bronson (14), Parchment (23), Coloma (25)

Highest Rated Seniors

Joe has always been a solid runner, but hit a new level last season.  He was able to show his improvement on a few levels.  Time-wise, a 16:28 at Portage and 16:42 at MIS stand out (as a sophomore, he didn’t run under 17:00).  He’s been a top-5 finisher in the region the past two years, but nailed an All-State spot this past year.

Luis has been a consistent presence for Bronson over in Region 23-3, this year they move a bit west.  Given his two previous years, he should acquit himself quite well here.  He was able to slip under 17:00 late into last season and finish 53rd at State.

During Liam’s sophomore year, he was able to flash his potential, though the entirety of the season was marked by inconsistency.  In 2019, he put it together each and every week.  He was able to break 18:00 multiple times, but his 18:02 (15th place) may be the most impressive.

Career Achievement

Winners win, and although Luke hasn’t technically won a race, he’s always been able to pull through in big races.  With the move to Division 3, Luke should be more than capable of being in the mix.  He’s finished All-Region in each season and has been top-10 in Berrien County the past two years.

Anyone Else?

Walker’s two years at Buchanan have been nearly identical.  6th, then 3rd at Regionals.  41st both years at State.  The ratings value consistency at Walker has brought that.  There have been subpar performances, but they’re few and far between, and outweighed by runs such as his freshman regional performance, a 0:25 PR that came out of nowhere. 

Garrett was able to experience some significant drops last year, both in awards and time.  He knocked nearly a minute off his PR (in tougher conditions as well, Otsego vs. MIS), reached top-10 at Regionals, and finished 17th at State.

Ava Genovese has been a revelation for Coloma’s girls team, Boden should be her equal on the boys’ side.  He’s quietly been dominant in the Southwestern scene, beaten only once last year.  That defeat came at Portage, where he finished 3rd.  In his victories, he was able to run in the low-11’s, breaking that barrier once.

Girls

As stated earlier, Bridgman find themselves in Division 3.  Beginning the 2019 season ranked 17th, early season performances indicated a special team.  They were knocked off slightly at Portage, but recovered to win the Division 4 State Title.  They lose Mikaela Owen to Wayne State, where she’ll contribute on the track, and in the process, will need to find a fifth runner.  That is where Bloomingdale should step in, with runners such as Olaisa Moss and Marta Douglas that can provide quality depth.   

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Bridgman (17), Bloomingdale (19)

Highest Rated Seniors

Karsyn is the senior leader and top returner on this very successful Bridgman squad.  Her 6th place finish at MIS, a PR on a tough day, set the course for their state title.  She’s always been very good, with three consecutive top-5 regional finishes and two All-State honors.

Kallie’s reliability will be a major factor in Bloomingdale’s success.  You can pick out any race in her career and you’ll find a great performance.  She’s been All-Region twice and is almost always in the 20:00 range.

When she’s on, Aubree can bring it with anyone in this region.  After all, she’s the defending champ.  Her 1st place finish was her third straight qualifier.  That Centreville course ran slower than most, and her 20:10 there was certainly a sub-20 equivalent after the adjustment.

Career Achievement

Mary has always racked up the medals and honors, but not to the level that she did last season.  She’s been top-15 in the region in each year she’s competed.  In 2019’s Fennville open, she was able to secure her first victory, and at Portage, her first run below 20:30.

Anyone Else?

The additions of Arie and Summer Fast were also major influences on Bridgman’s title run.  Arie is a multi-sport star who took her talents to cross country.  She started slow, in the 22-23:00 range, but with some racing under her belt, moved into the low-20’s.  Her season ended with a clutch 11th place finish at MIS, her first sub-20 performance.

Both Schlabach girls were able to have some success last year.  Gabriella was able to dip under 20:00 at Portage (October 5th) and Abigail was able to match that a week later at Bloomingdale.  They’ve both been All-Region all three years and in 2019, the top two finishers at the St. Joseph County Meet.

2020 Previews

An Early Look: Region 23-3

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Teams

Brooklyn Columbia Central
Dansville
Grass Lake
Hanover-Horton
Homer
Hudson
Jackson Lumen Christi
Jonesville
Leslie
Michigan Center
Napoleon
Onsted
Quincy
Springport
Union City

Boys

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Leslie (9), Dansville (17), Hanover-Horton (18), Napoleon (21)

Highest Rated Seniors

Dean narrowly missed the cut in the 50 Tickets to Brooklyn series. He set a new PR, 16:23, at Shepherd, then doubled that up with clutch performances at Cascades, Regionals, and States. He’s been top-5 in the region the past two years and this was his first All-State honor.

As with Dean, Alec turned it on late. His breakthrough was a little later, on an ideal day at Gabriel Richard. That 16:23 spurred more impressive performances, including a 4th place in the Regional and 16th place in the State.

In terms of time, Alex has taken a more steady path. In terms of achievements, much more dramatic. In 2017 and 2018, Alex’s regionals were a bit disappointing, running slower than he had previously in the season. For his junior year, he flipped that, with only his 3rd sub-17 finish and his first trip to MIS.

Career Achievement

Jalen’s improvement from 2018 to 2019 makes you wonder what his potential is here. As a freshman, he flirted with the 18:00 barrier, dipping under it at both Gabriel Richard and Regionals. As a sophomore, he was consistently under 17:00, taking that all the way to a 10th place finish at the Division 4 State Meet.

Anyone Else?

Last year, I pegged Joseph as being an impact for Dansville. It took awhile, but he was able to fill that role late into October. His 5th place regional finish, a 17:34, was able to help his team secure a Regional Championship, and with the move to Division 3, he’ll be counted on again.

That breakthrough race can happen at anytime, but it’s all the more special when it’s from someone young at an important event. Rhett was ranked 9th going into this regional last year, and his rating suggested a sub-17 performance. But it didn’t predict a 16:39 and 6th place finish. It’s often the case that the following race is a letdown, but Rhett didn’t let that occur, with an even more impressive 16:47 at MIS. This regional has so much young talent.

I did not peg Cameron as an key player on Leslie’s team last year, but taking a glance at his MS results, perhaps he was overlooked. As the season wore on, he showed his presence, with consistent mid-17 runs. That steadiness will be needed as Leslie relies on its depth to move up the D3 leaderboards.

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Ranked Teams

Jackson Lumen Christi (16)

Highest Rated Seniors

Three years for Renae have resulted in so many achievements.  Top-3 at Regionals three times, Top-2 in the I-8 twice, and All-State twice.  The 2019 season even saw a PR, a 19:12, 30+ seconds better than 2018.

After three years of hard work, Kailee put it together for a memorable finish at MIS.  She’s always been a quick one (with a 2:23 800m to her credit), but the endurance side has maybe taken a bit longer to develop.  In late October, she came through with multiple sub-20 times and an All-State finish.

Haley has the amazing ability of running her best when it matters, in late October.  The past three years, she’s either set a season record or personal best in a championship race.  She’s been top-10 in the region twice and this year could be her highest finish yet. 

Career Achievement

It’s been a constant cycle of growth for Faith.  Her freshman year of XC ended with an All-Region performance, but this past fall, her regional race was a winning performance at Regionals.  Along with that victory were some major time drops, with many finishes in the mid-19’s.  She placed 22nd at the State Meet and continued that momentum into indoor, where she set a new 3200m PR, 11:30.

Anyone Else?

Kaley is one of the leaders on a Hudson squad that’s been prominent at the Division 4 level.  The Tigers have finished in the top-10 at MIS in all three of her years there.  She’s been a major factor in that, placing in the top-50 individually on each occasion.

As her older sister (Reagan) graduates, Sydney moves in to fill her spot.  It might take awhile to reach Reagan’s level, but Sydney has definitely shown she’s capable, with a consistent string of mid-13:00 performances last year.

Madison should bolster Lumen Christi’s already formidable top two.  She really dropped some time to end last year, her final two races of the 12:30 variety. She won the I-8 Middle School and even entered in a little indoor track, running sub-13.