2020 Previews

Division 4 State Projections

Boys

Team Projections

I’ve been thinking of how to visualize these in another way. Especially for these lower division teams, the State Meet represents a different, larger field than normal. To win in these larger fields requires a knowledge of how to run in packs and how to manipulate the pack in order to score the lowest. What I’m trying to do here is show where the packs may be and how the top teams relate to them. This is a very rough version of what I hope to show when the season begins.

You can see here how Saugatuck and Carson City might benefit from being able to place their 5th runner before the major pack between ~18:20-18:35, whereas the other two teams will rely on their 4th or both 4th/5th guys to break into that pack. You see similar groupings in the higher 17’s and around 19:00.

Individual Projections

Here are some common races from the projected top 8:

Girls

Team Projections

Individual Projections

Common races between the top 6 non-freshman (which, I guess, includes Miriam Murrell):

Middle school results. Included an equivalent time because the middle school ratings aren’t on the same scale as the high school ratings.

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