Back here with the third installment of State Finals previews.
Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. Those will be edited in on Wednesday or Thursday next week, mainly to reduce any sort of pressure, but also to gather any last second info. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything. Please prove these wrong, unless I have you first.
Also in need of note – keeping on top and staying up to date of track stats is impossible, especially with my lack of programming knowledge and athletic.net’s password protection against web crawling. The girls stats were compiled as of Tuesday, the boys as of Thursday. I know there are results past that date and I know that’ll be the case for other events over these next 10 days. But we’re all armed with the same tools, we can all gravitate to the same site and dive deep into results. When the final predictions are made, those most recent results will be taken into account.
I’ll have predictions loaded on here by Thursday. Please check back then. But read first!
DIVISION ONE
It appears at this point in the year that we have five main competitors. Our defending champ, Abby Russell is back of course, the discus in my mind being the stronger of her two events. At the Metro Classic, she ripped a 149’4, vaulting her into Michigan’s All-Time Top 25 and the #2 rank across the entire state. Ava Wojciechowski just won the Oakland County crown in the discus, beating her Viking teammate Savannah Breitwiser and Elyse Finch. But both Breitwiser and Finch boast throws over 140’ and 135’ respectively, so they’re both capable of making a dent here. Midland’s Lillian Lince is undefeated on the year and Ms. Consistent in May, between 130’ and 141’ on all her best tosses. Along the way of that steadiness has come a SVL and Region 1 title.
2023 has been the year of Maelie Hope. The Whitehall senior opened her season with two massive throws, both over 150’ and has been mega consistent since. She’s undefeated on the year, winning the WMC, West Michigan Meet, and Region 12 along the way. And let’s mention she’s also excellent in the shot, 100m, AND 200m. There are two girls that could give her a run and both are peaking at the right time. Haley Guerrant is another one on an undefeated tear, having just captured the win at MITCA Team State, throwing a personal best along the way. Janae Hudson is also unbeaten and just grabbed a win at the vaunted Blue Water Meet of Champions, the unofficial Port Huron area title.
She placed 2nd here last year and the results show she’s not looking to let that happen again. Sophia Snellenberger has busted out some awe-inspiring throws, such as a 147’ to win Quincy’s home invitational and a 143’ to win MITS State. She’s also conserved her energy and done just enough to win, 15/15 on victories in her senior season. If anyone were to pull the minor upset, it could be Payton Otto, dropping down from Division 2 (2nd last year) or Gaby Reeve, coming up from Division 4 (3rd last year). Both have season bests above or near 130’
This is likely the most intriguing battle of all the discuses. Natalie Wandrie boasts the furthest personal best, a 130’ early in Harbor Springs. She’s been challenged lately by Kelsey Hansen, who pulled up within 10’ of her to grab 2nd in Region 31. Harley Bear and Emily Stinson both set personal bests to win their regional. Stinson has revenge on her mind from last year, Bear has championship experience, placing 6th and 17th the past two years. Lily Parker boasts the second-best season best (say that a thousand times), placing 2nd behind Janae Hudson in the Blue Water Championship and Emily Carbajal is undefeated on the year, coming into the State Finals on a championship roll. Region 35, TCC, and D4 Team State Titles will be a boost of confidence heading into this loaded competition.
Instead of the paragraphs, I had the idea of including a little fact about each qualifier. It turns out that idea was majorly misguided and took up way too much dang time. If I had done that for other events, I’d be writing these previews into 2024. Boys Discus throwers, please enjoy your extra bit of attention. 😊
I’ll have predictions loaded on here by Thursday. Please check back then. But read first!
DIVISION ONE
Facts
Grade
Name
Team
Info
11
Brycen Anderson
Walled Lake Central
Division 1 leader has won the LVC and Region 9.
12
Gerald Capaccio
St. Joseph
First time qualifier in the discus. SMAC and Region 3 Champion.
12
Demarrio Roetherford
Wyandotte Roosevelt
Madonna commit coming into his own as a senior, improving from 141′ to 165′, winning the Downriver League and Region 5 along the way.
11
Ty Robertson
Saginaw Heritage
Capable of some massive heaves, such as his 164′ at Punch a Hole in the Sky.
11
Merrick Hocking
Midland
Didn’t match his Regional distance, but gained a 2nd straight SVL Discus championship to add to the collection.
12
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
His 166′ to win Region 4 marks almost a 15′ improvement from 2022, where he placed 11th at State.
11
Garrett Weeden
Zeeland East
Another one capable of blasting one on a good day, multiple 160’+’s on his resume
12
Lucas Lesher
Holland West Ottawa
After a season full of 140’s and one 150, blasted a 162′ to win Region 2.
12
Lukas Ray
Wyandotte Roosevelt
Superb improvement in the disc, adding 29′ from his junior self, a great second fiddle to Roetherford.
10
Dominic Weatherly
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
Has potential for big discs, evidenced by his 158′ to win at Dakota earlier in the month.
12
Hunter Harding
Brighton
Another one who’s rolled past 150′, doing it in a KLAA Championship win
11
Parker Williams
Zeeland East
Season of gradual progress extended to Metro Health, where Parker nudged past 150′.
11
Nathan Cody
Walled Lake Central
First time ever qualifier, his 3rd place in Region 9 a significant improvement from 18th as a freshman.
12
Luke Eros
Howell
Recovered from a weaker KLAA meet to almost match his lifetime best at Region 4.
12
Josh Kriekaard
Cedar Springs
Rigtht behind Lesher in Region 2, his 159′ toss a 12′ season best.
12
Nathan Cobbs
East Kentwood
11′ season best to capture 2nd in Region 3.
10
Teegan Simmons
Monroe
Has turned it up a notch in championship season, 151′ at Lincoln’s JV meet leading to a 3rd Place in Region 5.
10
Rusty Klaer
St. Joseph
Potential darkhorse, his 154′ at the GR Elite Challenge looming large on his portfolio.
10
Camden Pawlick
Saline
Majorly consistent in May with four of his five finals over 140′.
9
Andre Neumann
White Lake Lakeland
Freshman Oakland County Champ portends well for the future, as does gaining State Finals experience.
10
Max Stoecker
Midland
First year of throwing has been a success, placing 3rd in Region 1 and 2nd in the SVL.
11
Ian Fedewa
Caledonia
From 113′ as a sophomore to 149′ as a junior.
12
Mason Fraley
Salem
Used the confidence gained from getting to State and turned it into 150′ at Churchill on Tuesday.
12
Daniel Yarrington
Utica
Captured his first MAC White title in the discus.
12
Cade Riddle
Brighton
Has added 15′ to his best sophomore disc, qualifying for the first time ever.
10
Case Johnson
Greenville
153′ to place 3rd in Region 3 a 12′ season best.
11
Tyler Marrogy
Walled Lake Central
Rapid progress in the final few weeks, from a season in the 130′ range to 154′ in Region 9.
11
Idrys Cotton
Plymouth
143′ to win Region 6 was first foray into the 140’s.
12
Logan Costello
Grand Ledge
Rapid rise late, capped recently by CAAC Blue trophy.
12
Ryan Mitchell
Cedar Springs
Stepped up in a big way, ripping a 150’er when his previous best landed short of 130′.
12
David Rolands
Berkley
Placed second in Region 8, throwing a 4′ personal best in the process.
11
David Osagiede
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
Massive improvements abound, 40′ from his sophomore to junior years.
11
Nnaemeka Ikechi
Warren DeLaSalle
Has added 10′ between his sophomore and junior years.
11
William McPherson
Rochester Adams
After a season primarily in the 110’s, has gone 130’+ in two of his last three meets.
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 