Back here with the fourth installment of State Finals previews.
Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything. Please prove these wrong, unless I have you first.
Also in need of note – keeping on top and staying up to date of track stats is impossible, especially with my lack of programming knowledge and athletic.net’s password protection against web crawling. Both genders stats were compiled Saturday. I know there will results past that date and I know that’ll be the case for other events over these next 5 days. But we’re all armed with the same tools, we can all gravitate to the same site and dive deep into results. When the final predictions are made, those most recent results will be taken into account.
Those predictions will be added to this post by Thursday.
DIVISION ONE
Returning from the 2022 State Finals are a few girls from the Top 8 and others in the mix of competition. You have the hometown girl, Maya Anderson,her string of mid-18’s placing her right in the same spot she was last year. Woodhaven’s Maya Justice didn’t reach the podium last year, a great learning experience for her freshman self. She’s undefeated on the year, going up against the State’s best at Team State and Golden Triangle, large invites that bode well for the big stage. Margaret Monaghan and Sophie Daugard are your all-around athletes, Sophie coming over from Shot Put, Margaret in both the hurdles. And in the mix of all those names, you have the consistent Ashley Richburg, who’s been between 17’ and 17’8 for all of the past five weeks.
Can the freshman shock the world and steal a trophy? Sadie Dykstra has shown no reason that she can’t. She’s only been defeated once this year (to Olivia Findlay, who has a great shot of winning in D4) and has reached 18’1, the best mark of any freshman in the state. She’ll have upper class competition from a multitude of names. Kaitlyn Molnar has been on a roll of late, winning Huron League and Region 16 titles, along with grabbing the D2 state lead at the Metro Classic. Madison Nino, Nyla Reed, Hallie Kooyer, and Brielle Reason all made All-State last year.
In Division Three, Southern Michigan is long jump land. Napoleon, Hillsdale, Hudson, Union City, Hanover-Horton make up five of the top six best jumps in the State. Region 25 at Hillsdale may be a point we can look to, with Mia Hinz narrowly grabbing the championship over Alyssa Budd. Two others placed high there, Adalynn Rumsey and Kaytie Warren. But it appears to be a battle between the first two. Does Hinz in her first year of track at Hillsdale capture the title or does Budd exact revenge?
34 girls! That’s a ton of qualifiers! Among those 34 are 7 that stepped onto the award stand last year. Grace Wolfe and Claire Molnar are having great championship seasons, Grace winning the NWC in a 17’0 PB, Claire sweeping the TCC and Region 35. Mentioned earlier, Olivia Findlay bested freshman sensation Dykstra to take the Blue Water title. And added to all those wonderful returners is Breckenridge’s BayLeigh Clapp, whose 16’8 ranks #5 amongst all freshman girls in the state.
The sophomore’s already turning heads, and if you’re heading to Rockford you may want to take a trek from the stands to the field event area to watch him fly. Quincy Isaac hit a 24’3 long jump at Farmington, a big invitational with a propensity to deliver big performances. As Jeff Hollobaugh noted in his newsletter, there wasn’t a wind gauge, but my sources on the ground corroborate his words, that Isaac has much more in his legs. Of course, in the long jump, technicality is a major factor, and just as Maya Anderson has a familiarity with the Rockford boards, so does Carter Bissell, who was fourth here last year. Look at last year’s results and you’ll see a ton of names that are aching to get on that medal stand, Davis Barr, Dylan Lafontsee, Josh Tiption, Jordan Gutierrez, amongst others. Let’s just put it this way… I know where I’ll be early Saturday morning.
I love the contrast of the Bower brothers. On one hand, a season full of accolades for Wyatt Bower, a majority of his jumps over 21’ with a FML Championship sprinkled in there. Two(!) competitions for Tarick Bower, the latest of which a 22’9 regional win. As he becomes more acquiesced to the event, will he leap even further, far enough to win a title? Or will he be stonewalled by Xavier Davis, who blasted a 23’5 to win the Hazel Park regional. And if anyone doubts that validity, keep in mind Xavier won the Oakland County title this past weekend, beating everyone and anyone from those D1 schools.
Not many have been on the tear that Mitchel Harrington has been on. He’s undefeated since early May, claiming wins at Region 21 and in the LMC. His 22’9 to win the Clare Regional is the #3 jump in the state as of today. More than a foot victory and that was over some kids that will surely be in the mix, such as Kanye Marineau, Carson Parks, and Karson Tocco. Just down I-75 is a pair of teammates looking to take him down: Sawyer Moloy and Nickolas Metzger. This past week, the two combined for 16 points at the Jack Pine Conference championship and they’re poised to emit similar point totals here. Combine that with their relays and the high jump and the Mustangs have a chance at something bigger.
The Champ is back and he’s rounding into form to defend his title. Twelve months back, he turned a season of sub-20’ leaps through mid-May into 21’s in championship season and 22’3 win in the Finals. He’s on a similar trajectory this year, already hitting 22’3 to take a Blue Water title. He’ll have stiff competition though, mainly from jump savant Mekhi Wingfield and Anthany Buford. Buford holds the D4 lead with his 22’6 at the Metro Classic, where he leapt ahead of all those Downriver D1 kids. Wingfield is undefeated on the year with two 22’+’s on his resume.
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 