2023 Mid-Season Projections: Shepherd Regional

Hard to fathom, but we’re a month out from Regionals. Championship Season is coming soon, starting this week with the Battle Creek City Meet, Berrien County, then next week with Oakland County and Wayne County, advancing further on with our many area and conference championships. The weather is beginning to turn, mornings becoming cooler, leaves transforming into their beautiful fall hues, and most important – times are quickening and competition is heating up.

Given this juncture, time for another look at the regional projections. These follow many of the same rules as the division rankings. Using an individual’s races from here, a total rating is created by taking the top 75% of a runner’s races and weighing them toward more recent meets. Those ratings are then ranked for each region/division, spitting out a score that is used for the rankings. One added factor this week – filtering out athletes that haven’t competed over the past month, which I sadly have to assume are injured or no longer competing.

These might be much different than the athletic.net hypothetical meet. Anet uses the best performance from the season. I take more races into account, as I feel the entire resume speaks a greater volume about someone. Anet uses jamborees and duals, for which I don’t have time to calculate. Anet doesn’t account for course differences. If you take the 160 boys that ran at both Holly and Jackson, on average the Jackson times were 30 seconds faster. We have great coaches in this state that promote week-to-week improvement, but clearly there are differences in courses (and there are short/questionable ones too)! I’m not saying one is better than the other, just that I prefer my own and my bet is that they’ll be more accurate when we do this again next month.

REGION 25 SUMMER PREVIEW
REGION 15 SUMMER PREVIEW
REGION 2 SUMMER PREVIEW

Major Movers

Those that have moved up a considerable amount or are unforeseen additions

St. Louis Girls

Bullock Creek Boys

Myleigh Hephner, Ithaca

Makinna Foglesong, Ithaca

Kaya Vrable, Caro

Jenna Sweeney, Reese

Duane Davis, Bullock Creek

Elliot Noyes, Sanford-Meridian

Jacob Mankey, Ithaca

Tyler Leach, Otisville-LakeVille

Luke Herron, Caro

Tiny Movers

Those that have moved up just a tiny bit, but have improved nonetheless.

Ithaca Boys

Rachael Walch, Caro

Mattie Gagne, Bullock Creek

Claire Neumann, Saginaw Valley Lutheran

Paige Herron, Caro

Bailey Wiggins, Bullock Creek

Brayden Sweeney, Bullock Creek

Tyler Heal, Sanford-Meridian

Landon Pestrue, St. Louis

Landen Styka, Ithaca

Steady At The Top

May be most impressive of all, teams or individuals that were projected to win or qualify and are still in those spots. Much tougher to be the hunted than the hunter.

Caro Girls

Ithaca Girls

St. Louis Boys

Ben March, St. Louis

Place	Girls Team	Reg Score	Division Rank
1	Caro	42	8
2	Ithaca	58	11
3	St. Louis	118
4	Sanford-Meridian	130
5	Pigeon-Laker	148
6	Midland Bullock Creek	155
7	Cass City	156
8	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	180
9	Pinconning	198
10	Millington	268
11	Bad Axe	275

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Kaya Vrable	Caro
2	12	Jenna Sweeney	Reese
3	12	Liliana Lehnst	Ithaca
4	12	Kinsie Jacques	Pinconning
5	12	Paige Herron	Caro
6	12	Jaiden Dickman	St. Louis
7	12	Claire Neumann	Saginaw Valley Lutheran
8	9	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca
9	10	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek
10	10	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca
11	12	Faith Swenor	Caro
12	12	Rachael Walch	Caro
13	9	Pyper Braun	Pigeon-Laker
14	9	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian
15	10	Alexis Fabbro	Vassar

Place	Boys Team	Reg Score	Division Rank
1	Ithaca	60	12
2	St. Louis	83	16
3	Midland Bullock Creek	85	17
4	Sanford-Meridian	115
5	Pigeon-Laker	122
6	Caro	125
7	Reese	151
8	Otisville LakeVille	211
9	Hemlock	265
10	Cass City	274
12	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	283
11	Vassar	283
13	Millington	290

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Ben March	St. Louis
2	10	Landen Styka	Ithaca
3	11	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis
4	11	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian
5	9	Luke Herron	Caro
6	11	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek
7	12	Matthew Pattullo	Caro
8	11	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker
9	12	Bailey Wiggins	Midland Bullock Creek
10	10	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille
11	10	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca
12	11	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca
13	9	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker
14	12	Elliot Noyes	Sanford-Meridian
15	10	Duane Davis	Midland Bullock Creek

Major Movers

Those that have moved up a considerable amount or are unforeseen additions

Kearsley Girls

Birch Run Girls

Shepherd Boys

Layla Jordan, Goodrich

Clara Kaczor, Freeland

Murphy Wagner, Saginaw Swan Valley

Ali Kudmani, Alma

Nolan Longuski, Shepherd

Ezekiel Baltierra, Alma

Tiny Movers

Those that have moved up just a tiny bit, but have improved nonetheless.

Elise Barden, Frankenmuth

Samantha Brown, Clio

Joy Evans, Alma

Lucy Conzelmann, Frankenmuth

Natalie Foltz, Frankenmuth

Kamryn Lauinger, Goodrich

Jack Lillywhite, Flint Kearsley

Bryce Cahoon, Shepherd

Thomas Larson, Alma

Steady At The Top

May be most impressive of all, teams or individuals that were projected to win or qualify and are still in those spots. Much tougher to be the hunted than the hunter.

Goodrich Girls

Frankenmuth Girls

Freeland Girls

Alma Boys

Frankenmuth Boys

Flint Powers Catholic Boys

Mary Richmond, Frankenmuth

TJ Hansen, Freeland

Place	Girls Team	Reg Score	Division Rank
1	Goodrich	44	4
2	Frankenmuth	59	9
3	Freeland	74	12
4	Alma	89	17
5	Shepherd	175
6	Flint Kearsley	223
7	Flint Powers Catholic	225
8	Saginaw Swan Valley	249
9	Birch Run	289
10	Clio	297
11	Ortonville Brandon	319
12	Essexville-Garber	321
13	North Branch	322
14	Imlay City	336
15	Bay City John Glenn	370

Place	Boys Team	Reg Score	Division Rank
1	Alma	62	7
2	Frankenmuth	99	15
3	Flint Powers Catholic	118	22
4	Shepherd	124
5	Freeland	127	27
6	Clio	129	26
7	Flint Kearsley	138
8	Saginaw Swan Valley	212
9	Goodrich	239
10	Birch Run	245
11	Ortonville Brandon	328
12	Bay City Central	341
13	Imlay City	356
14	North Branch	374
15	Bay City John Glenn	454
16	Essexville-Garber	459

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Mary Richmond	Frankenmuth
2	9	Clara Kaczor	Freeland
3	11	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich
4	11	Ezgi Kurt	Alma
5	10	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth
6	11	Layla Jordan	Goodrich
7	9	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth
8	11	Joy Evans	Alma
9	9	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run
10	9	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich
11	9	Claire Brown	Goodrich
12	10	Samantha Brown	Clio
13	11	Karie Keefer	Freeland
14	11	Avery Byrne	Goodrich
15	10	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	TJ Hansen	Freeland
2	10	Thomas Larson	Alma
3	9	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd
4	9	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma
5	12	David Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic
6	11	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd
7	12	Elliott Sirianni	Clio
8	12	Ali Kudmani	Alma
9	11	Landen Wise	Frankenmuth
10	10	Murphy Wagner	Saginaw Swan Valley
11	11	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley
12	11	Owen Fennelly	Saginaw Swan Valley
13	10	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth
14	10	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic
15	12	Andrew Yax	Clio

Major Movers

Those that have moved up a considerable amount or are unforeseen additions

Bay City Western Boys

East Lansing Boys

Midland Boys

Alyssa Fouchey, Traverse City West

Gabriella Fugazzi, Okemos

Tessa Mascari, Traverse City West

Reese Smith, Traverse City West

Luke Byland, Traverse City Central

Benjamin Rottier, Grand Ledge

John Blaskowski, Saginaw Heritage

Tiny Movers

Those that have moved up just a tiny bit, but have improved nonetheless.

Traverse City Central Girls

Alpena Girls

Holt Girls

Sydney Roberts, H.H. Dow

Lily Salazar, Okemos

Abby Veit, Traverse City West

Alexis Ball, Traverse City Central

Ella Kirkwood, Traverse City Central

Isabelle Becker, Bay City Western

Katie Watkins, H.H. Dow

Sam King, Traverse City West

Miles Killips, Bay City Western

Ian Morgan, Okemos

Zach Truszkowski, Traverse City Central

Noah Selvaraj, Bay City Western

Steady At The Top

May be most impressive of all, teams or individuals that were projected to win or qualify and are still in those spots. Much tougher to be the hunted than the hunter.

Traverse City West Girls

Okemos Girls

Traverse City Central Boys

Traverse City West Boys

Victoria Garces, H.H. Dow

Place	Girls Team	Reg Score	Division Rank
1	Traverse City West	58	8
2	Okemos	68	11
3	Traverse City Central	99	13
4	H.H. Dow	99	21
5	Bay City Western	156
6	Grand Ledge	199
7	Alpena	208
8	Holt	222
9	Midland	225
10	Mt. Pleasant	253
11	East Lansing	262
12	Greenville	292
13	Saginaw Heritage	340
14	Lansing Everett	469

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Victoria Garces	H.H. Dow
2	12	Katie Watkins	H.H. Dow
3	11	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western
4	12	Ella Kirkwood	Traverse City Central
5	12	Alexis Ball	Traverse City Central
6	12	Shannon Gillahan	Okemos
7	11	Lauren Walker	Holt
8	10	Abby Veit	Traverse City West
9	12	Lily Salazar	Okemos
10	10	Reese Smith	Traverse City West
11	9	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West
12	9	Gabriella Fugazzi	Okemos
13	11	Sydney Roberts	H.H. Dow
14	11	Alyssa Fouchey	Traverse City West
15	12	Ava King	Traverse City West

Place	Boys Team	Reg Score	Division Rank
1	Traverse City Central	68	18
2	Bay City Western	78	20
3	Traverse City West	107
4	Okemos	130
5	East Lansing	144
6	Midland	158
7	Saginaw Heritage	167
8	Grand Ledge	183
9	H.H. Dow	188
10	Alpena	249
11	Mt. Pleasant	286
12	Greenville	339
13	Holt	383
14	Lansing Everett	448

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Noah Selvaraj	Bay City Western
2	10	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage
3	12	Zack Truszkowski	Traverse City Central
4	12	Willem DeGood	Traverse City West
5	12	Kenny Lewis	Saginaw Heritage
6	10	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central
7	12	Colin MacGregor	H.H. Dow
8	10	Ian Morgan	Okemos
9	12	Michael Cyrul	East Lansing
10	10	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge
11	9	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West
12	12	Eden Lampi	East Lansing
13	12	Miles Killips	Bay City Western
14	9	Luke Byland	Traverse City Central
15	12	Sam King	Traverse City West