2023 Mid-Season Projections: Anchor Bay Regional

Hard to fathom, but we’re a month out from Regionals. Championship Season is coming soon, starting this week with the Battle Creek City Meet, Berrien County, then next week with Oakland County and Wayne County, advancing further on with our many area and conference championships. The weather is beginning to turn, mornings becoming cooler, leaves transforming into their beautiful fall hues, and most important – times are quickening and competition is heating up.

Given this juncture, time for another look at the regional projections. These follow many of the same rules as the division rankings. Using an individual’s races from here, a total rating is created by taking the top 75% of a runner’s races and weighing them toward more recent meets. Those ratings are then ranked for each region/division, spitting out a score that is used for the rankings. One added factor this week – filtering out athletes that haven’t competed over the past month, which I sadly have to assume are injured or no longer competing.

These might be much different than the athletic.net hypothetical meet. Anet uses the best performance from the season. I take more races into account, as I feel the entire resume speaks a greater volume about someone. Anet uses jamborees and duals, for which I don’t have time to calculate. Anet doesn’t account for course differences. If you take the 160 boys that ran at both Holly and Jackson, on average the Jackson times were 30 seconds faster. We have great coaches in this state that promote week-to-week improvement, but clearly there are differences in courses (and there are short/questionable ones too)! I’m not saying one is better than the other, just that I prefer my own and my bet is that they’ll be more accurate when we do this again next month.

REGION 17 SUMMER PREVIEW
REGION 9 SUMMER PREVIEW

Major Movers

Those that have moved up a considerable amount or are unforeseen additions

Warren Regina Girls
Madison Heights Lamphere Boys
Samantha Whitlam, Macomb Lutheran North
Lorelei Mahon, Warren Regina
Samantha Kook, Armada
Brynn Hurley, Croswell-Lexington
Lilyana Bratt, St. Clair
Ava Baltierra, Armada
Pete Lutz, Madison Heights Lamphere
Dylan Schumann, St. Clair
Jerry Westrick, St. Clair

Tiny Movers

Those that have moved up just a tiny bit, but have improved nonetheless.

Armada Boys
Darrah Mackenzie, Armada
Natalie Lentine, Warren Regina
Kale Kovach, Yale
Jamison Snay, Macomb Lutheran North
Vinny Schweihofer, St. Clair
Brewer Snay, Macomb Lutheran North

Steady At The Top

May be most impressive of all, teams or individuals that were projected to win or qualify and are still in those spots. Much tougher to be the hunted than the hunter.

Croswell-Lexington Girls
Armada Girls
Yale Boys
St. Clair Boys
Macomb Lutheran North Boys
Eva Thompson, Croswell-Lexington

Place	Girls Team	Score	Division Rank
1	Armada	51	22
2	Warren Regina	52	16
3	Croswell-Lexington	55	19
4	St. Clair	95
5	Macomb Lutheran North	126
6	Marysville	147
7	Richmond	188
8	Marine City	227
9	Yale	233
10	Madison Heights Lamphere	266
11	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	344
12	Harper Woods	383

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington
2	12	Ava Baltierra	Armada
3	12	Morgan Newton	Croswell-Lexington
4	11	Brooklyn Khon	Armada
5	12	Lilyana Bratt	St. Clair
6	11	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina
7	11	Brynn Hurley	Croswell-Lexington
8	12	Kennedy Roskopp	Warren Regina
9	11	Natalie Lentine	Warren Regina
10	12	Samantha Kook	Armada
11	11	Lillian Rutallie	Marysville
12	12	Darrah Mackenzie	Armada
13	11	Lorelei Mahon	Warren Regina
14	9	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North
15	9	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair

Place	Boys Team	Score	Division Rank
1	Yale	35	14
2	St. Clair	36	16
3	Macomb Lutheran North	76
4	Madison Heights Lamphere	151
5	Armada	170
6	Marysville	171
7	Marine City	179
8	Richmond	196
9	Croswell-Lexington	237
10	Harper Woods	240
11	Detroit East English	334

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Brewer Snay	Macomb Lutheran North
2	12	Blake Ferguson	Yale
3	12	Giovanni Pardo-Keegan	Yale
4	12	Vinny Schweihofer	St. Clair
5	12	Dylan Distelrath	St. Clair
6	12	Acer Campbell	Yale
7	9	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair
8	11	Jerry Westrick	St. Clair
9	12	Anthony Goatley	Madison Heights Lamphere
10	12	Jamison Snay	Macomb Lutheran North
11	11	Kale Kovach	Yale
12	12	Dylan Schumann	St. Clair
13	11	Wyatt Murtos	Yale
14	11	Teddy Rutkofske	Yale
15	11	Pete Lutz	Madison Heights Lamphere

Major Movers

Those that have moved up a considerable amount or are unforeseen additions

Macomb Dakota Girls
Utica Eisenhower Girls
Grosse Pointe South Boys
Utica Eisenhower Boys
Lauren Thomas, Anchor Bay
Katelyn Frazier, Fraser
Lilian Deskins, Romeo
Luke Oyster, Utica Eisenhower
David Rochon, Grosse Pointe North
Lucas LaMilza, Macomb Dakota
Colton Howell, Macomb Dakota
Simon Davis, Macomb Dakota

Tiny Movers

Those that have moved up just a tiny bit, but have improved nonetheless.

Port Huron Northern Girls
Remi Flanz, Fraser
Olivia Purdy, Romeo
Leah Corby, Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
Natalia Guaresimo, Romeo
Annie Hrabovsky, Romeo
Bryce Goodsell, Romeo
Brandon Penberthy, L’Anse Creuse North
Tyler Brothers, Utica Eisenhower
Dylan Penberthy, L’Anse Creuse North
Carter Fox, Macomb Dakota

Steady At The Top

May be most impressive of all, teams or individuals that were projected to win or qualify and are still in those spots. Much tougher to be the hunted than the hunter.

Romeo Girls & Boys
Fraser Girls
Macomb Dakota Boys
Anchor Bay Boys
Jayden Harberts, Macomb Dakota
Thomas Westphal, Anchor Bay

Place	Girls Team	Score	Division Rank
1	Romeo	23	1
2	Macomb Dakota	86	19
3	Fraser	88	17
4	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	100
5	Grosse Pointe South	118
6	Port Huron Northern	219
7	Utica Eisenhower	225
8	Grosse Pointe North	237
9	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	254
10	Chippewa Valley	258
11	L’Anse Creuse North	314
12	Anchor Bay	322
13	L’Anse Creuse	357

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota
2	9	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo
3	10	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo
4	10	Emmerson Clor	Romeo
5	11	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo
6	10	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
7	12	Mariah Belmont	Macomb Dakota
8	11	Grace Grupido	Fraser
9	11	Olivia Purdy	Romeo
10	11	Lillian Deskins	Romeo
11	10	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser
12	12	Lauren Thomas	Anchor Bay
13	12	Gracie Youngblood	Romeo
14	12	Remi Flanz	Fraser
15	12	Morgan Deenik	Grosse Pointe South

Place	Boys Team	Score	Division Rank
1	Romeo	53	10
2	Macomb Dakota	57	13
3	Anchor Bay	108
4	Grosse Pointe South	156
5	L’Anse Creuse North	167
6	Port Huron Northern	174
7	Utica Eisenhower	187
8	Grosse Pointe North	199
9	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	221
10	Chippewa Valley	250
11	Fraser	285
12	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	293
13	L’Anse Creuse	307
14	Warren DeLaSalle	382
15	Warren Woods Tower	436
16	Roseville	525

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Thomas Westphal	Anchor Bay
2	12	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo
3	12	Connor Clor	Romeo
4	12	Carter Fox	Macomb Dakota
5	12	Dylan Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North
6	12	Tyler Brothers	Utica Eisenhower
7	12	Simon Davis	Macomb Dakota
8	11	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota
9	12	Brandon Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North
10	11	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota
11	12	Luke VanderHeuvel	Port Huron Northern
12	12	Bryce Goodsell	Romeo
13	12	David Rochon	Grosse Pointe North
14	12	Jack DeWaele	Chippewa Valley
15	12	Luke Oyster	Utica Eisenhower