2023 Regional Projections: Kensington Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#8 Lansing Catholic
#11 Leslie

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

In a very front-loaded region, 22^nd place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Lansing Catholic	1.3	31	73	95+
2	Leslie	1.7	36	27	95+
3	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	3.0	106		95+
4	Wixom St. Catherine	4.3	136
5	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	5.0	145
6	Stockbridge	5.9	157
7	Algonac	6.9	173
8	Charyl Stockwell Academy	8.2	209
9	Clawson	9.2	226
10	New Haven	9.6	233

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Tessa Roe	Lansing Catholic	1.0
2	10	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	3.2
3	9	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	3.6
4	10	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	4.4
5	11	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	4.8
6	9	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	5.7
7	11	Jaidyn Smith	Leslie	8.4
8	12	Jalynn Schmelter	Leslie	8.4
9	12	Abby Rice	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	10.4
10	9	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic	10.8
11	9	Mia Papendick	Leslie	11.5
12	10	Kaitlin Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	11.7
13	10	Jasmine Walker	Algonac	13.4
14	11	Kerith Short	University Liggett	14.6
15	9	Emily Satkowiak	Stockbridge	15.9
16	9	Makya Isham	Leslie	16.3
17	10	Jaylee Chapman	Stockbridge	17.2
18	12	Kendall Zaliwski	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	19.1
19	11	Maddie Szlachta	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	20.6
20	11	Ava Vaccaro	Stockbridge	21.2
21	10	Stella Lipinski	Lansing Catholic	21.9
22	12	Madison Juchno	Wixom St. Catherine	23.8
23	12	Carmellina Biafora	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	23.9
24	10	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy	24.1
25	12	Lovelyn Ketepa	Clawson	25.8
26	9	Amanda Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	27.4
27	11	Kate Bennett	Algonac	27.4
28	10	Cristina Wenderski	Wixom St. Catherine	27.6
29	11	Josephine Malysz	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	30.1
30	11	Grace MacDonald	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	31.3

Any Intriguing Battles?

Leslie and Lansing Catholic appear to be neck and neck. Although the projections say one thing, results from this season say another. Just 10 days ago at Greater Lansing, the Blackhawks top-3 dominated the D3 crowd, competing with P-W for top honors among those teams. Though an advantage for LC might come in that their home course is filled with hills, as is the final mile at Possum Hollow.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#21 Leslie
#25 Lansing Catholic

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

19^th-20^th Place. The projections have Algonac as a bit stronger toward the front, which might open a spot lower if they’re able to pull off the upset.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Leslie	1.3	49	75	95+
2	Lansing Catholic	1.8	56	25	95+
3	Dansville	3.2	114		81
4	Algonac	3.8	123		19
5	Charyl Stockwell Academy	5.5	156
6	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	6.5	167
7	Stockbridge	6.6	168
8	University Liggett	7.3	176
9	Clawson	9.5	246
10	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	10.1	257
11	New Haven	10.4	264
12	Detroit Osborn	12.0	338

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Theodore Davis	Dansville	1.0
2	10	Julian Walker	Algonac	2.6
3	12	Anthony Urbaniak	Charyl Stockwell Academy	2.8
4	9	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	5.7
5	10	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic	5.9
6	11	Michael Darlington	University Liggett	6.1
7	9	Cooper Schmelter	Leslie	6.8
8	9	Matthew Killeen	Leslie	8.9
9	9	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	9.9
10	9	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic	10.2
11	9	William Gancer	Stockbridge	11.0
12	10	Grason Weber	Leslie	12.2
13	9	Finn Korte	Lansing Catholic	14.9
14	10	Blaise Demko	Lansing Catholic	16.0
15	11	Kyan Isham	Leslie	17.8
16	12	Ethan Wright	Stockbridge	17.8
17	11	Jose Domecq	Leslie	18.5
18	10	Zach Witherspoon	Algonac	18.6
19	9	Clayton Gady	University Liggett	19.2
20	10	Owen Beindit	Algonac	19.8
21	9	Ayden Mayr	Dansville	20.1
22	9	Hayden Selesky	Lansing Catholic	20.8
23	10	Brody Urbaniak	Charyl Stockwell Academy	22.2
24	12	Logan Hile	Leslie	25.8
25	9	Preston Varnauskas	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	26.1
26	12	Logan Fowler	New Haven	26.6
27	10	Hayden Richey	Lansing Catholic	26.8
28	9	Owen Windgaston	Clawson	27.1
29	10	Ryder Dayton	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	29.1
30	12	Calvin vanHartesvelt	Dansville	30.0

Any Intriguing Battles?

Just as the girls, Leslie and Lansing Catholic will likely duel for the team title, but we could have some intrigue for the 3^rd qualifier. In late August, both Dansville and Algonac came over to the shores of Kent Lake for the Milford Invite. Dansville obtained a significant victory over the Muskrats. Since then, Algonac has had noticeable improvement from their freshmen and their frontrunner, but will it be enough?

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#19 White Lake Lakeland
#24 Walled Lake Northern

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th or 16^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	White Lake Lakeland	1.2	58	81	95+
2	Walled Lake Northern	2.0	72	17	95+
3	Highland-Milford	3.2	103		73
4	Novi	3.9	126		27
5	South Lyon	5.7	166
6	Birmingham Seaholm	6.1	171
7	Royal Oak	6.4	177
8	Walled Lake Western	7.6	194
9	South Lyon East	9.0	241
10	Walled Lake Central	10.3	275
11	West Bloomfield	11.2	291
12	North Farmington	11.9	305
13	Berkley	12.6	318
14	Beverly Hills Groves	14.0	383

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	1.5
2	12	Alisia Olteanu	Walled Lake Western	3.2
3	10	Kayla Ward	South Lyon	4.5
4	12	Emma Hoffmeyer	Walled Lake Western	4.6
5	12	Madelyn Gordon	Walled Lake Northern	6.6
6	9	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	6.7
7	11	Alena Tiernan	White Lake Lakeland	8.1
8	9	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland	8.7
9	12	Ava Kurczewski	Walled Lake Northern	8.9
10	9	Emily Alt	Walled Lake Northern	9.2
11	10	Macy Czelada	South Lyon	11.5
12	9	Claire Porinsky	South Lyon East	16.7
13	10	Lauren Bradley	Highland-Milford	16.8
14	11	Emily Bieniasz	Walled Lake Central	18.0
15	11	Natalie Joiner	White Lake Lakeland	19.0
16	9	Kareena Babu	Novi	22.2
17	10	Mya Tass	Novi	22.5
18	9	Katelynn Egli	Novi	22.5
19	12	Katherine Wischman	Royal Oak	23.3
20	9	Morgan Scally	White Lake Lakeland	23.7
21	11	Isabelle Krause	Walled Lake Northern	24.3
22	11	Macy Jenkins	Highland-Milford	24.5
23	11	Cora Liu	North Farmington	25.2
24	9	Paige Haller	Walled Lake Central	27.1
25	12	Mackenzie Hendry	White Lake Lakeland	27.2
26	11	Kerrigan Kennedy	Highland-Milford	27.3
27	9	Allie Gallagher	Walled Lake Northern	27.5
28	9	Jane Meinecke	Royal Oak	27.5
29	12	Elaine Burkmyre	Walled Lake Western	28.0
30	11	Ellie Nohovig	Highland-Milford	28.9

Any Intriguing Battles?

We’re blessed to be able to peek back 2.5 weeks ago, where the Lakeland girls survived the final hills in order to hold off Walled Lake Northern. We’re also blessed to have that highly-competitive LVC Championship, where Allie Gallagher showed much mettle, rising into the Knight scorers and displacing just enough White Lake girls. Now we get the rubber match!

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#12 White Lake Lakeland
#13 Walled Lake Northern

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

17^th or 18^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	White Lake Lakeland	1.5	56	53	95+
2	Walled Lake Northern	1.5	57	47	95+
3	Highland-Milford	3.6	104		54
4	Novi	3.8	109		43
5	Royal Oak	5.3	127
6	Detroit Catholic Central	5.4	132
7	South Lyon	7.0	193
8	Berkley	8.5	283
9	Birmingham Seaholm	8.6	287
10	Brother Rice	10.1	316
11	South Lyon East	12.1	347
12	North Farmington	12.7	355
13	Walled Lake Central	12.7	355
14	Beverly Hills Groves	12.9	357
15	West Bloomfield	14.5	380
16	Walled Lake Western	16.0	434

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Sebastian Ramirez	Royal Oak	1.7
2	12	Ty Parker	Walled Lake Northern	2.3
3	10	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	2.4
4	12	Pierce Grzymkowski	White Lake Lakeland	4.2
5	12	Evan Rice	Walled Lake Northern	5.6
6	12	Oliver Moss	Berkley	6.7
7	12	Braxton Sipes	Royal Oak	7.9
8	12	Ryan Ward	White Lake Lakeland	10.3
9	12	Lucas Karbel	Walled Lake Northern	11.2
10	10	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland	12.9
11	11	Drew Abbott	Detroit Catholic Central	13.8
12	12	Noah Tiernan	White Lake Lakeland	14.7
13	11	Matthew Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	14.8
14	11	Nolan Till	Royal Oak	15.4
15	9	Nathan Bruss	Walled Lake Northern	16.5
16	12	Carter Lukas	Novi	16.9
17	11	Ryan Carrannanto	Highland-Milford	17.9
18	12	Julian Liang	Novi	20.3
19	9	Briggs Warren	Novi	20.6
20	10	Soma Sato	Novi	21.5
21	12	Brayden Mullins	Highland-Milford	22.1
22	12	Ryan Illikman	Detroit Catholic Central	22.6
23	12	Liam Collins	Brother Rice	25.0
24	11	Ayden McDonald	White Lake Lakeland	25.7
25	11	Chase Griffith	Walled Lake Northern	26.9
26	10	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern	27.6
27	10	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central	28.1
28	12	Dylan Shoresh	Birmingham Seaholm	28.3
29	12	Skylar Jess-Isenegger	Highland-Milford	30.6
30	11	Thomas Watson	Detroit Catholic Central	32.1

Any Intriguing Battles?

Thanks to a clutch performance from sophomore Finn Gammerath, the Walled Lake Northern boys pulled off a minor upset in their win of the LVC. Personal bests were hard to come by last week, but dude broke into the 16’s for the first time ever in that championship race. Surely the Eagles are looking for revenge and this could go either way. Even though White Lake skipped out on the County meet, they have had positive experiences on this course, such as their win over Milford. If you can beat the Mavs on their home course, you’ve got a darn good team.