2023 Regional Projections: Portage Central (Friday)

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, to give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#15 Concord
#17 Kalamazoo Hackett

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Probably gonna be around 16^th place regardless if the 3^rd team is White Pigeon or Centreville.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Kalamazoo Hackett	1.5	41	52	95+
2	Concord	1.5	42	48	95+
3	Centreville	3.4	91		56
4	White Pigeon	3.6	94		44
5	Battle Creek St. Philip	5.5	150
6	Athens	6.3	159
7	Three Oaks River Valley	6.6	161
8	New Buffalo	7.5	174

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Haley Stimer	Concord	1.4
2	11	Presley Allen	Mendon	2.2
3	9	Gabriella Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	3.6
4	10	Cieara Barrett	Concord	4.1
5	10	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	5.0
6	10	Katelyn Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	7.1
7	12	Riley Adams	Concord	9.5
8	12	Emma Gaylor	Heritage Christian Academy	10.8
9	10	Ellie Reed	Centreville	10.9
10	11	Jamielynn Delarye	White Pigeon	12.0
11	12	Gwen Bulko	Concord	12.6
12	12	Addie Curtis	Marcellus	13.4
13	12	Mimi Hibbard	Battle Creek St. Philip	14.3
14	11	Abigail Ulbrich	Kalamazoo Hackett	15.2
15	9	Harper Bowman	New Buffalo	15.7
16	12	Chloe Badger	Athens	17.4
17	12	Analiese Miller	White Pigeon	17.5
18	12	Emmy Pritchard	Centreville	19.6
19	12	Alexae Hall	Decatur	21.4
20	9	Angel VeenKant	Tekonsha	21.7
21	11	Rachel Schelstraete	White Pigeon	22.8
22	9	Ella Hendrixson	Three Oaks River Valley	23.0
23	10	Bethany Carpenter	Kalamazoo Hackett	23.9
24	12	Frances Mildenberg	Centreville	25.2
25	11	Hannah Stimer	Concord	25.9
26	10	Rachel Byler	White Pigeon	26.2
27	9	Helen Donner	Three Oaks River Valley	26.4
28	10	Julianne Mounce	Kalamazoo Hackett	27.9
29	10	Kimberlynn Lawson	Centreville	28.9
30	12	Ellie Miller	Centreville	30.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

Concord vs. Kalamazoo Hackett for the girls win. Concord had the upper hand earlier in the year at Portage, buoyed by quick efforts from Stimer and Barrett. Hackett had more bodies toward the back of the pack. Two aspects to watch: what sort of gap is there in place between the Yellowjackets’ top-2 and Hackett’s top-2 and if depending on the former’s significance, can the Irish pull through late?

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#6 Three Oaks River Valley
#8 Kalamazoo Hackett
#26 Battle Creek St. Philip

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

22^nd Place. With two top-10 teams, this appears to be very top-heavy, with many spots up for grab later into the race.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Three Oaks River Valley	1.3	38	72	95+
2	Kalamazoo Hackett	1.7	42	28	95+
3	Battle Creek St. Philip	3.0	88		95+
4	White Pigeon	4.5	146
5	Concord	4.7	148
6	Centreville	6.0	171
7	Eau Claire	7.3	198
8	Heritage Christian Academy	8.6	217
9	Mendon	8.8	219
10	Athens	9.3	228
11	New Buffalo	10.9	262

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	1.4
2	10	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	2.5
3	12	Gavin Sehy	Kalamazoo Hackett	2.6
4	12	Austin York	Three Oaks River Valley	4.8
5	12	Luke Sprague	Battle Creek St. Philip	5.8
6	10	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	6.2
7	10	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	6.3
8	10	Jesse Fielis	White Pigeon	7.9
9	11	Ben Iobe	Mendon	9.7
10	11	Adam Slavens	Three Oaks River Valley	11.1
11	11	Ryan Blankenship	Eau Claire	11.3
12	12	Max Shugars	Battle Creek St. Philip	11.7
13	11	Sean Driscoll	Three Oaks River Valley	14.6
14	12	Nick Doerr	Kalamazoo Hackett	14.8
15	12	Braiden Brooks	Three Oaks River Valley	16.2
16	11	Jerome Bastian	Battle Creek St. Philip	17.0
17	11	Alex Dumont	Kalamazoo Hackett	17.8
18	9	Kellen Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	19.4
19	10	Ethan O’Connor	Athens	20.4
20	10	David Lane	White Pigeon	22.2
21	10	Maddox Hutchinson	Concord	22.2
22	9	Max Barron	Tekonsha	23.5
23	11	Owen Nofs	Battle Creek St. Philip	23.5
24	9	Keaton Smith	Concord	24.9
25	11	Lleyton Bauman	Concord	27.2
26	10	Brendan Sre	Centreville	27.7
27	11	Grant Schumm	Three Oaks River Valley	28.0
28	9	Elias Baldwin	Decatur	28.4
29	9	Oliver Mildenberg	Centreville	29.3
30	9	Seth Crown	Heritage Christian Academy	30.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

As with many of these Southwest schools, we can look to Portage and try to glean something from the River Valley vs. Hackett matchup. There, the Mustang pack laid a giant impact, in particular Adam Slavens through Braiden Brooks, placing six RV boys before Hackett’s fourth. In a smaller meet such as this, that significance gets toned down, so if kids such as Sehy and Siems can sneak up a spot or two, Hackett’s winning odds become larger.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#10 Forest Hills Central

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

A little light on the elite squads leaves many individuals in the top-15. Less depth in terms of spots, but a high possibility of more than 7 individual qualifiers.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Forest Hills Central	1.0	53	95+	95+
2	Portage Central	2.5	122		89
3	Byron Center	3.4	134		70
4	East Kentwood	4.8	152		19
5	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	5.5	158
6	Kalamazoo Central	6.1	164		9
7	Caledonia	6.1	164		7
8	Forest Hills Northern	7.2	174
9	Battle Creek Lakeview	9.1	198
10	Portage Northern	9.5	206
11	Lowell	11.1	246
12	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	12.3	285
13	Mattawan	12.4	290

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Selma Anderson	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	1.0
2	12	Clara James-Heer	Forest Hills Central	2.0
3	12	Izzy Fazio	Forest Hills Northern	4.1
4	10	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	4.3
5	11	Annie Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	5.0
6	11	Anna Sybenga	Forest Hills Central	6.6
7	11	Clare Mathison	Forest Hills Central	8.9
8	12	Alyssa DeFields	Caledonia	10.9
9	12	Emilee Rudlaff	Kalamazoo Central	11.0
10	12	Peyton Ludwig	Forest Hills Central	11.6
11	10	Lilamae Frank	Battle Creek Lakeview	12.7
12	11	Sydney Law	Byron Center	13.3
13	9	Roxanne Jorgensen	Portage Northern	14.4
14	10	Enna Wainer	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	15.5
15	10	Rhea Mouw	Portage Central	16.4
16	9	Olivia Storteboom	Portage Central	17.1
17	12	Lexi Hurst	East Kentwood	21.0
18	12	Julia Moxey	East Kentwood	21.8
19	11	Daphne Ball	Byron Center	21.8
20	10	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	22.6
21	11	Reese Hansen	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	23.4
22	12	Alyssa Hinton	Battle Creek Lakeview	24.6
23	11	Rachel Grice	Kalamazoo Central	25.4
24	11	Ella Harlow	Portage Northern	26.7
25	12	MK Elliott	Portage Central	26.7
26	10	Lilah Yoder	Forest Hills Central	26.7
27	11	Claire O’Boyle	Lowell	29.6
28	11	Sofia Bogard	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	30.4
29	12	Addison Begeman	Portage Central	30.7
30	11	Mia Stibitz	Forest Hills Central	31.3

Any Intriguing Battles?

The many contenders for this third spot. Portage Central, slotted in second, may benefit from a home course advantage. But I wouldn’t be shocked with any order here. Byron Center is probably the favorite, a solid team all year that just recently won at Sturgis and placed 4^th in the notoriously tough OK White. A darkhorse and wild card could be Kalamazoo Central, who at this past weekend’s SMAC Championship, sent three girls under 20:00.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#6 Kalamazoo Central
#10 Forest Hills Central
#21 Portage Central
#23 East Kentwood

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Likely around 15^th place even if the third team is Portage Central or East Kentwood. Tons of great individuals here that should push back those two top-10 teams.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Kalamazoo Central	1.1	61	93	95+
2	Forest Hills Central	2.0	82	7	95+
3	Portage Central	3.1	106		83
4	East Kentwood	4.0	121		16
5	Byron Center	5.1	145
6	Caledonia	6.5	169
7	Battle Creek Lakeview	6.5	169
8	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	8.2	203
9	Forest Hills Northern	8.6	212
10	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	10.1	248
11	Lowell	11.0	273
12	Portage Northern	11.9	295
13	Mattawan	13.0	327

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Aiden Moore	Battle Creek Lakeview	1.2
2	12	Jasper Cane	Kalamazoo Central	2.1
3	12	Liam Walters	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	3.7
4	11	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	5.7
5	9	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	8.4
6	12	Logan Begeman	Portage Central	9.0
7	9	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	10.0
8	11	Jonah Bills	Battle Creek Lakeview	10.5
9	11	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	10.7
10	11	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	11.2
11	11	Mitchell Jeruzal	Byron Center	11.4
12	10	Logan Westgate	Portage Central	12.6
13	10	Dylan Duguay	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	15.6
14	10	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	16.1
15	10	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	16.7
16	11	Kort Thompson	Caledonia	17.1
17	11	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	18.2
18	12	Parker Ludwig	Forest Hills Central	18.2
19	12	Levi Green	Byron Center	19.0
20	10	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	20.3
21	11	Jacob Sanford	Forest Hills Central	20.9
22	12	Will Banfield	Forest Hills Central	22.1
23	11	Spencer Parker	Portage Central	23.2
24	11	Spencer Porter	Forest Hills Northern	23.8
25	9	Memphis Connor	Byron Center	25.7
26	10	Elijah Thompson	Kalamazoo Central	25.9
27	12	Hudson Kemperman	Forest Hills Northern	26.5
28	10	Eli Velting	Caledonia	28.4
29	12	Mark Millard	Byron Center	30.1
30	12	Reponse Shema	East Kentwood	31.0

Any Intriguing Battles?

A great aspect of athleticnet is being able to filter a meet’s results. For instance, three weeks ago on this very course, you can look at all the Region 3 teams from the Portage Invite. There, Portage Central had four boys sub-17, and when scored with only Region 3 teams, beat the Falcons by 14 points. But the Falcons just didn’t have a day. Portage is a fair course, ripe for PR’s when running in a massive, competitive field. And the Falcons didn’t obtain any from their varsity boys. Those PR’s came this past week at the OK Red Championship, where the Falcons placed 3^rd and six boys nailed sub-17’s.