2023 Regional Projections: Sharp Park Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#4 Hillsdale Academy
#16 Pittsford

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

20th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Hillsdale Academy	1.0	34	95+	95+
2	Pittsford	2.0	53		95+
3	Addison	3.0	77		95+
4	Adrian Lenawee Christian	4.0	89
5	Camden-Frontier	5.0	106

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Izzy Brooks	Adrian Lenawee Christian	1.0
2	12	Brooke Smith	Pittsford	2.1
3	11	Ella Walton	Hillsdale Academy	4.3
4	10	Ruth Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	4.8
5	11	Ava Mallar	Pittsford	5.1
6	11	Stephanie Hernandez	Addison	6.7
7	11	Riley McCumber	Pittsford	6.9
8	11	Caroline Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	8.9
9	10	Abby Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	9.2
10	11	Aubrey Appleman	Britton Deerfield	10.8
11	12	Leah Rorick	Morenci	11.3
12	9	Allie Miller	Hillsdale Academy	11.7
13	9	Grace Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	12.0
14	9	Audrey Nehlsen	Hillsdale Academy	13.3
15	11	Priya Mericle	East Jackson	14.4
16	10	Emersyn Bachelder	Morenci	14.4
17	9	Lillian Jagielski	Pittsford	17.1
18	9	Kendalyn Perry	Addison	18.8
19	11	Taylor Lautermilch	Camden-Frontier	19.5
20	10	Grace Raymond	Petersburg-Summerfield	20.8
21	10	Ayla Hopkins	Camden-Frontier	21.8
22	9	Gigi Masters	Adrian Lenawee Christian	23.7
23	11	Allison Morris	Addison	24.7
24	12	Maggie Frost	Addison	25.2
25	12	Sayra Hernandez	Addison	25.3
26	12	Kariana Carpenter	Jackson Preparatory	25.8
27	11	Sophia Falater	Reading	25.8
28	12	Paige Santi	Reading	27.5
29	12	Faith Secor	Petersburg-Summerfield	27.8
30	11	Averil Miller	Camden-Frontier	28.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

The top three teams seem set, but I might look to what Izzy Brooks can throw down or how Hillsdale Academy’s pack appears. The Colts have seven solid girls that could play a role next week. Izzy had a nice rebound from the Lenawee County race, winning the Class D meet at Shepherd in 19:16. With its gradual downhills, Jackson can run fast. If she goes for it, I wouldn’t be shocked to see another low-19 (or faster) performance.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

Boys

#1 Hillsdale Academy
#16 East Jackson
#25 Adrian Lenawee Christian

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

20th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Hillsdale Academy	1.0	27	95+	95+
2	East Jackson	2.1	78		95+
3	Adrian Lenawee Christian	3.3	94		74
4	Morenci	4.0	100		25
5	Jackson Preparatory	4.7	108
6	Britton Deerfield	6.4	173
7	Reading	6.6	177
8	Vandercook Lake	8.0	204
9	Addison	9.0	229

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Thomas Holm	Hillsdale Academy	1.0
2	12	Michael Allen	East Jackson	2.4
3	10	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	2.7
4	11	Reece Poole	Hillsdale Academy	4.4
5	12	Javin Mericle	East Jackson	4.6
6	11	Joel Lange	Adrian Lenawee Christian	6.9
7	12	Nathan Daniels	Adrian Lenawee Christian	8.4
8	10	Henry Lindley	Hillsdale Academy	9.1
9	12	William Kennedy	East Jackson	9.9
10	9	Landon Wilkins	Morenci	11.2
11	11	Beau Shaffer	Morenci	11.3
12	9	Ryan Miller	Hillsdale Academy	11.4
13	10	James Rahe	Hillsdale Academy	11.7
14	12	Karol Schlueter	Hillsdale Academy	13.7
15	11	Zachary Martinez	Morenci	14.9
16	11	Jameson Watson	Britton Deerfield	16.3
17	12	Noah Blondke	Jackson Preparatory	17.3
18	12	Nathan Blondke	Jackson Preparatory	18.5
19	11	Diego BoCole	Jackson Preparatory	20.4
20	12	Kutter Vanaken	Reading	20.7
21	10	Dallas Swaenepoel	Vandercook Lake	21.1
22	11	Kaleb Richardson	Adrian Lenawee Christian	23.2
23	10	Pierson Cousino	Adrian Lenawee Christian	23.7
24	10	Corey Dubnicki	Jackson Preparatory	25.4
25	9	Noah Lucas	Addison	26.0
26	11	Ryan Good	Britton Deerfield	28.1
27	10	Brayden Wright	Reading	30.5
28	11	Logan Mishaw	Jackson Preparatory	30.7
29	12	Colton Raffensberger	East Jackson	30.9
30	12	Randy Reddick	East Jackson	31.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

These last few weeks, we’ve got a few examples of the impending Adrian Lenawee Christian vs. Morenci matchup on the boys side. Lenawee Christian took the first two battles at the TCC Final and the Lenawee County Championship, while Morenci came through up at Class D this past weekend. Beau Schaffer easily had his best effort of the year, coming in before any ALC athlete. Could that be enough to lead the Bulldogs into the 3^rd spot?

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#1 Jackson Lumen Christi
#13 Hanover-Horton
#23 Onsted

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

20th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.0	28	95+	95+
2	Hanover-Horton	2.0	70		95+
3	Onsted	3.0	99		95+
4	Hudson	4.4	142
5	Quincy	4.7	145
6	Bronson	6.3	172
7	Napoleon	6.6	175
8	Jonesville	8.3	214
9	Hillsdale	9.2	232
10	Homer	9.5	238
11	Sand Creek	11.2	277
12	Michigan Center	11.8	293

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Madison Osterberg	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.1
2	11	Emmry Ross	Onsted	1.9
3	9	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	3.1
4	12	Olivia Perrine	Hanover-Horton	4.8
5	10	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.8
6	10	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	7.1
7	12	Sophia Reynolds	Hanover-Horton	7.7
8	11	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	8.4
9	11	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	8.8
10	11	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	9.0
11	12	Sydney Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	9.7
12	11	Thia Tello	Jackson Lumen Christi	12.2
13	9	Kendyl Musielewiez	Quincy	13.1
14	12	Julianna Debozy-Crawford	Hanover-Horton	15.5
15	11	Jayla Bright	Hudson	16.6
16	9	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton	17.0
17	10	Brookelyn Parker	Quincy	17.4
18	11	Allie England	Onsted	17.6
19	10	Raegan Brosamer	Onsted	17.9
20	11	Karly Page	Jonesville	19.7
21	10	Annabelle Czeiszperger	Hudson	22.9
22	12	Sadie Miller	Quincy	23.5
23	10	Sophie Patrick	Homer	24.3
24	11	Lauren McLain	Napoleon	24.7
25	12	Lily Mason	Hanover-Horton	25.6
26	11	Mia Sanchez	Jackson Lumen Christi	26.6
27	10	Makenzy Lindemann	Napoleon	27.5
28	12	Madelyn Norman	Napoleon	28.7
29	9	Izabel Raglow	Onsted	28.8
30	11	Pierce Pibbles	Hudson	31.3

Any Intriguing Battles?

Not especially, as the top three girls teams appear to be heavy favorites to make it out. This region benefitted from the loss of Leslie, a school in the vicinity of Jackson that moved to Region 26. This opened the door for teams such as Onsted and Hanover-Horton to have a greater chance at qualifying.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#4 Hanover-Horton
#8 Jonesville
#9 Jackson Lumen Christi

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

18th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Hanover-Horton	1.1	53	93	95+
2	Jonesville	2.4	71	7	95+
3	Jackson Lumen Christi	2.5	73		95+
4	Hillsdale	4.2	152
5	Brooklyn Columbia Central	5.9	177
6	Hudson	6.0	178
7	Onsted	7.8	196
8	Adrian Madison	7.9	197
9	Bronson	8.1	199
10	Homer	9.5	214
11	Napoleon	11.2	239
12	Sand Creek	11.4	240
13	Michigan Center	13.0	349
14	Quincy	14.0	405

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.1
2	11	Mitchell Hiatt	Onsted	2.1
3	11	Landen Boulis	Hanover-Horton	4.3
4	12	Evan Shepherd	Hanover-Horton	4.6
5	12	Gavin VanKampen	Jonesville	5.2
6	12	Nolan Grant	Hillsdale	6.1
7	12	Gannon Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.9
8	9	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	7.3
9	12	Alex Czeiszperger	Hudson	9.3
10	10	Zach Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	11.4
11	10	John Edler	Homer	11.4
12	10	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	14.0
13	10	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	14.7
14	12	Owen Brown	Hanover-Horton	14.8
15	9	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	15.4
16	12	Kyler Pequet	Napoleon	16.3
17	9	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	18.3
18	11	Jack Gorton	Brooklyn Columbia Central	19.9
19	10	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison	19.9
20	11	Isaac St. John	Hudson	20.5
21	12	David Fowler	Jonesville	21.9
22	9	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	22.0
23	9	Silas Daniels	Sand Creek	24.9
24	9	Collin Fucile	Jonesville	25.2
25	10	Paul McClure	Adrian Madison	25.9
26	10	Wyatt Vowell	Brooklyn Columbia Central	26.7
27	11	James Bayes	Onsted	27.0
28		Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	29.4
29	12	Caleb Dickinson	Homer	30.3
30	11	Owen Lambarth	Brooklyn Columbia Central	30.8

Any Intriguing Battles?

Another thing to add to the list of Michigan XC Maxims (St. Louis comes through at the end of the year, watch out for Pinckney at Portage, always believe in Sal’s Magic) is to always count on Hanover-Horton. Ranked outside the top-10 to begin the year, the Comets have been a steady presence in the upper echelon of the D3 rankings.But beware, Jonesville is living up to those rankings, winning the Cascades Conference thanks to a huge performance from David Fowler. Lingering a bit behind the two were the Lumen Christi boys, but I always feel like the LC teams live on the Sharp Park course.