2023 Regional Projections: Shepherd Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#7 Caro
#10 Ithaca
#22 St. Louis

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place

Projected Place	Girls Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Caro	1.2	48	76	95+
2	Ithaca	1.8	56	24	95+
3	St. Louis	3.0	100		95+
4	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	4.6	138
5	Sanford-Meridian	5.2	147
6	Pigeon-Laker	6.1	156
7	Midland Bullock Creek	6.3	159
8	Cass City	8.2	186
9	Pinconning	8.7	202
10	Millington	10.1	263
11	Bad Axe	10.9	293
12	Carrollton	12.0	364

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jenna Sweeney	Reese	1.9
2	11	Kaya Vrable	Caro	3.0
3	12	Liliana Lehnst	Ithaca	3.1
4	12	Jaiden Dickman	St. Louis	3.8
5	12	Kinsie Jacques	Pinconning	4.6
6	12	Paige Herron	Caro	6.3
7	10	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	8.0
8	12	Claire Neumann	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	8.4
9	10	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	8.9
10	9	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	9.1
11	9	Pyper Braun	Pigeon-Laker	11.2
12	12	Faith Swenor	Caro	13.3
13	12	Rachael Walch	Caro	14.0
14	11	Maddie Huysentruyt	Sandusky	15.1
15	9	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	15.2
16	10	Alexis Fabbro	Vassar	17.5
17	12	Alexa Long	Caro	17.9
18	11	Abby Dice	St. Louis	18.7
19	9	Olivia Hooper	Pigeon-Laker	19.5
20	10	Carla Cortes	Cass City	23.5
21	10	Aubrey Zarnke	Pigeon-Laker	24.7
22	10	Braylee Rice	Reese	25.1
23	10	Emma Dawe	Ithaca	26.6
24	12	Emma Haynes	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	26.9
25	10	Izabelle LaLone	Ithaca	26.9
26	11	Autumn Fransen	Midland Bullock Creek	28.2
27	9	Lilly Mann	St. Louis	28.6
28	12	Natalie Lemert	St. Louis	28.8
29	9	Haley Fitzgibbon	Sanford-Meridian	28.9
30	10	Emma Fisher	Reese	30.5

Any Intriguing Battles?

Caro and Ithaca for the championship. The Yellowjackets have been coming on strong lately, placing 4^th in the TVC Overall Meet, their top-5 all hitting a season or personal best. The teams have only matched up once – early in the season here at John Bruder, where Caro was ahead by nearly 100 points, the majority of those points coming from the 4^th and 5^th spots. These projections show a bit closer gap for their 4^th spot, but still a considerable one at 5.

(And you might be wondering why each of their 1^st girls are projected to be 2^nd. Essentially, Vrable and Lehnst are inseparable and since these are based off simulations of many races, both of their average finishing places in the team race are near 2^nd)

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#11 St. Louis
#13 Ithaca
#15 Midland Bullock Creek

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place

Projected Place	Boys Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	St. Louis	1.1	58	89	95+
2	Ithaca	2.1	72	8	95+
3	Midland Bullock Creek	2.8	84		95+
4	Sanford-Meridian	4.4	118
5	Pigeon-Laker	4.8	125
6	Caro	5.8	139
7	Reese	7.0	174
8	Otisville LakeVille	8.0	210
9	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	9.1	248
10	Hemlock	10.7	280
11	Cass City	11.0	284
12	Vassar	11.3	286
13	Millington	12.9	304
14	Carrollton	14.0	363

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ben March	St. Louis	1.2
2	11	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	2.3
3	10	Landen Styka	Ithaca	3.4
4	11	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian	4.0
5	12	Bailey Wiggins	Midland Bullock Creek	7.1
6	12	Matthew Pattullo	Caro	7.3
7	11	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek	7.7
8	11	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	8.5
9	11	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca	8.9
10	9	Luke Herron	Caro	9.0
11	10	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	9.7
12	10	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca	14.8
13	9	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	16.0
14	11	Jacob Moore	Caro	16.2
15	12	Elliot Noyes	Sanford-Meridian	16.5
16	10	Duane Davis	Midland Bullock Creek	17.6
17	10	Hayden Shattuck	St. Louis	17.9
18	10	Alex Rodriguez	St. Louis	17.9
19	11	Colin Kuhn	St. Louis	19.1
20	10	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	20.7
21	11	Brent DeSaegher	Ithaca	21.7
22	11	Connor Kennedy	Otisville LakeVille	22.5
23	12	Marc Woods	Midland Bullock Creek	23.3
24	10	Logan Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	23.7
25	10	Thad Whitmore	Ithaca	24.0
26	12	Matthew Johnston	Hemlock	26.2
27	12	Konnor Olson	Pigeon-Laker	26.9
28	9	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	29.3
29	9	Robby Samborn	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	29.4
30	10	Wesley Haines	Reese	30.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

St. Louis vs. Ithaca for the top spot. Although the Sharks have taken all of the matchups in league competition this year, the 2^nd TVC Jamboree shows a pathway to a Yellowjacket victory. In late September, Ithaca put five guys in front of St. Louis’s 4^th, coming within 4 points of the Sharks. Though the firepower from March and Pestrue up front may be too much of a gap to come back from.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#3 Goodrich
#7 Frankenmuth
#13 Freeland
#19 Alma

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21st Place… but top-15 is automatic

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Goodrich	1.0	43	95+	95+
2	Frankenmuth	2.1	64		95+
3	Freeland	3.0	80		95+
4	Alma	4.0	97
5	Shepherd	5.3	192
6	Flint Powers Catholic	6.2	206
7	Flint Kearsley	6.7	217
8	Saginaw Swan Valley	8.0	245
9	Clio	9.7	284
10	Birch Run	10.5	295
11	Imlay City	11.2	304
12	Essexville-Garber	12.0	315
13	Ortonville Brandon	12.5	318
14	North Branch	13.2	326
15	Bay City John Glenn	14.7	361

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Mary Richmond	Frankenmuth	1.4
2	11	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	2.4
3	11	Ezgi Kurt	Alma	3.4
4	9	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	4.5
5	10	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	5.9
6	11	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	6.3
7	10	Samantha Brown	Clio	6.6
8	9	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	8.2
9	9	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	8.9
10	9	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	9.4
11	11	Joy Evans	Alma	10.7
12	9	Claire Brown	Goodrich	12.9
13	11	Karie Keefer	Freeland	13.5
14	11	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	14.2
15	10	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	18.4
16	10	Jada Prescott	Freeland	18.8
17	9	Grace Mahaffy	Goodrich	18.9
18	9	Molly Gaudard	Flint Kearsley	19.3
19	9	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	19.6
20	11	Grace Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	19.9
21	12	Ava Boggs	Flint Kearsley	20.7
22	11	Landrey Kuhn	Freeland	20.8
23	12	Paige Kloha	Freeland	22.4
24	9	Alexa Palmer	Alma	24.8
25	12	Hannah Raglin	Alma	26.0
26	11	Reese Beery	Saginaw Swan Valley	26.8
27	11	Heather Brownlee	Essexville-Garber	31.6
28	12	Madison Gimmey	Shepherd	31.9
29	11	Vivian Wickes	Alma	33.4
30	10	Sophia Ciesla	Essexville-Garber	34.2

Any Intriguing Battles?

Me vs. the site selection committee. No one really responded to my lengthy writeup over the summer. I really wish there was more transparency and communication as to why teams have to travel 1.5+ hours to regionals when there’s one right down the street.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#6 Alma
#13 Frankenmuth
#17 Flint Powers Catholic
#23 Clio
#25 Flint Kearsley

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Alma	1.0	65	95+	95+
2	Frankenmuth	2.2	88		95+
3	Flint Powers Catholic	2.9	100		87
4	Clio	4.0	117		14
5	Flint Kearsley	5.5	136
6	Shepherd	5.9	139
7	Freeland	6.5	147
8	Saginaw Swan Valley	8.1	207
9	Goodrich	8.9	230
10	Birch Run	10.1	264
11	Ortonville Brandon	10.9	282
12	Bay City Central	12.0	316
13	Imlay City	13.0	371
14	North Branch	14.0	398
15	Bay City John Glenn	15.0	434

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	TJ Hansen	Freeland	1.0
2	12	Elliott Sirianni	Clio	2.6
3	10	Thomas Larson	Alma	3.4
4	9	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	4.6
5	12	David Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	6.1
6	9	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	6.5
7	11	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	7.3
8	12	Andrew Yax	Clio	8.1
9	10	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	8.8
10	11	Landen Wise	Frankenmuth	11.0
11	12	Ali Kudmani	Alma	12.2
12	10	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	12.4
13	11	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	12.6
14	10	Murphy Wagner	Saginaw Swan Valley	14.1
15	11	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth	15.9
16	11	Owen Fennelly	Saginaw Swan Valley	16.3
17	10	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	16.4
18	10	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	16.5
19	12	Peter Huey	Flint Powers Catholic	20.2
20	11	Ethan Sellers	Flint Kearsley	21.0
21	11	Camden McLeod	Freeland	21.2
22	10	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	21.6
23	11	Bodie Heiss	Alma	23.6
24	10	Ian McNeel	Shepherd	27.8
25	12	Jack Rumptz	Birch Run	27.8
26	12	Alex Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	28.1
27	12	Evan Yax	Clio	28.8
28	12	Keiran Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	29.4
29	10	Cole Fernandez	Flint Kearsley	31.2
30	11	Sam Nemeth	Freeland	31.9

Any Intriguing Battles?

Flint Powers Catholic vs. Clio for the third team qualifier. Despite being 20 miles apart from one another, the two aren’t in the same league nor did they lock heads at Greater Flint. The most recent matchup was at Shepherd, which had a similar result to the what the projections project. Clio is strong up front, led by Sirianni and Yax, while Powers gains an advantage at their 3^rd – 5^th finishers. The factor, as always in cross country scoring, is one of gaps and bubbles. Will there be a large enough gap at the front to mitigate Powers toward the middle of the pack?

SUMMER
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#8 Okemos
#9 Traverse City West
#22 Traverse City Central

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21st Place, but as always, top-15 is guaranteed

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Okemos	1.3	52	75	95+
2	Traverse City West	1.8	61	25	95+
3	Traverse City Central	3.4	111		59
4	Bay City Western	3.6	114		41
5	H.H. Dow	5.1	159
6	Grand Ledge	6.5	190
7	Holt	7.4	203
8	Alpena	7.6	205
9	Midland	8.4	218
10	Mt. Pleasant	10.5	270
11	East Lansing	11.2	280
12	Greenville	11.7	291
13	Saginaw Heritage	12.7	319
14	Lansing Everett	14.0	467

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Katie Watkins	H.H. Dow	1.3
2	12	Shannon Gillahan	Okemos	2.7
3	11	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	4.6
4	12	Ella Kirkwood	Traverse City Central	5.7
5	11	Lauren Walker	Holt	6.1
6	9	Gabriella Fugazzi	Okemos	6.7
7	10	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	7.7
8	12	Ava King	Traverse City West	8.8
9	12	Alexis Ball	Traverse City Central	9.3
10	9	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	12.3
11	10	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	14.2
12	12	Lily Salazar	Okemos	14.6
13	10	October Harns	Okemos	15.7
14	12	Nicole Mays	Okemos	15.9
15	10	Reese Smith	Traverse City West	16.0
16	9	Jaclyn Suderman	Bay City Western	17.0
17	11	Sydney Roberts	H.H. Dow	17.2
18	10	Elizabeth Schafer	Okemos	18.0
19	11	Alyssa Fouchey	Traverse City West	20.1
20	10	Payton Lamb	Traverse City West	20.8
21	10	Lydia Jagger	Grand Ledge	21.6
22	11	Ella Reaves	Holt	22.0
23	11	Abby Minnick	East Lansing	22.2
24	10	Gracelin Martin	Greenville	22.4
25	10	Peyton Tucker	Traverse City West	22.9
26	12	Bryna Mead-O’Brien	Okemos	25.4
27	12	Emma Dickins	Alpena	26.4
28	10	Sienna Cobb	Traverse City Central	27.4
29	12	Samantha Zolnierek	Alpena	29.4
30	10	Madison Aten	Grand Ledge	30.1

Any Intriguing Battles?

Okemos vs. Traverse City West for the regional championship. Two teams that get it done in largely the same manner, strong packs with a ton of depth. I can see both teams outperforming their state projections given their strength through all varsity runners. Last year it was the Chiefs who were able to place all five scorers in the top-21 en route to a victory.

Traverse City Central vs. Bay City Western for the final qualifying spot. Two teams with tons of tradition and experienced coaches to have their runners performing their best come late October. Last year, it was Traverse City Central. At Portage, the two teams finished a spot away from one another.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#17 Bay City Western
#19 Traverse City Central
#27 Traverse City West

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Traverse City Central	1.4	62	67	95+
2	Bay City Western	1.7	70	32	95+
3	Traverse City West	3.4	103		58
4	Okemos	3.5	107		44
5	Saginaw Heritage	5.8	161
6	Midland	6.0	161
7	East Lansing	7.4	179
8	Grand Ledge	7.5	181
9	H.H. Dow	8.4	190
10	Alpena	10.0	247
11	Mt. Pleasant	11.0	298
12	Greenville	12.0	334
13	Holt	13.0	382
14	Lansing Everett	14.0	447

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Noah Selvaraj	Bay City Western	1.0
2	12	Willem DeGood	Traverse City West	3.1
3	12	Zack Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	3.2
4	12	Colin MacGregor	H.H. Dow	5.9
5	10	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	6.0
6	10	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	6.0
7	10	Ian Morgan	Okemos	7.1
8	9	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	9.8
9	10	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	10.0
10	12	Kenny Lewis	Saginaw Heritage	10.3
11	11	Andrew Kaczmarczyk	Bay City Western	10.6
12	12	Michael Cyrul	East Lansing	11.8
13	12	Miles Killips	Bay City Western	14.9
14	9	Luke Byland	Traverse City Central	16.1
15	10	Preston VanOeffelen	Greenville	16.6
16	11	Ian Boss	Traverse City Central	17.8
17	12	Eden Lampi	East Lansing	19.4
18	12	Sam King	Traverse City West	20.1
19	11	Nathan Wilkinson	Okemos	21.2
20	11	Logan Grills	Bay City Western	21.4
21	11	Logan Gehoski	Bay City Western	22.4
22	10	Andrew Worsley	Midland	23.8
23	12	Jon Kurowski	Alpena	24.9
24	11	Nathan Beemer	Okemos	26.4
25	12	Logan Northrop	Mt. Pleasant	26.8
26	12	Mateo Reyes	Midland	26.9
27	10	Ben Irwin	Traverse City West	27.3
28	10	Malcolm Cesario	Okemos	28.7
29	12	Alex Morey	Traverse City Central	28.9
30	12	Alex Durocher	Traverse City Central	29.0

Any Intriguing Battles?

Flip the script from the girls, keep the same teams.

Traverse City Central vs. Bay City Western for the boys win. BCW always, and I mean ALWAYS outperforms these projections. They’re experienced up front and have great memories here, last year coming together for an upset to grab the third spot.  TC Central is quite a bit younger, but led by the steady Zach Truszkowski up front. At Portage, BCW put their 5^th and 6^th boys ahead of TCC’s 5^th, with a 30 second gap between their final scorers. A big difference there and perhaps enough here even in a smaller field.

Traverse City West vs. Okemos boys for the third spot. Once again, we can look to Portage, where Okemos was able to throw four guys under 17:00. Their 5^th and 6^th runners were in the mid-17’s, but both had a significant gap over TCW’s 5^th. It all depends where runners are concentrated. If a huge percentage of the field comes in between 17:00 and 17:20, TCW might have enough firepower up front. 17:20 and 17:45, Okemos’ depth reigns supreme. Guess we’ll find out Friday…