2023 Regional Projections: Anchor Bay Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#22 Croswell-Lexington
#25 Warren Regina
#27 Armada

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

19^th Place in the case of both Armada and St. Clair being the third team.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Croswell-Lexington	58	1.6	45	95+
2	Warren Regina	59	1.7	43	95+
3	Armada	72	3.0	12	71
4	St. Clair	82	3.7		30
5	Macomb Lutheran North	120	5.0
6	Marysville	153	6.3
7	Richmond	160	6.7
8	Marine City	225	8.2
9	Yale	237	8.9
10	Madison Heights Lamphere	279	9.9
11	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	331	11.0
12	Harper Woods	373	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	1.4
2	12	Ava Baltierra	Armada	2.0
3	12	Morgan Newton	Croswell-Lexington	3.3
4	11	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	5.6
5	11	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	6.0
6	12	Kennedy Roskopp	Warren Regina	7.2
7	11	Brynn Hurley	Croswell-Lexington	7.5
8	12	Lilyana Bratt	St. Clair	8.6
9	11	Lillian Rutallie	Marysville	9.4
10	12	Samantha Kook	Armada	9.6
11	11	Natalie Lentine	Warren Regina	11.3
12	9	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	11.7
13	9	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair	14.4
14	11	Lorelei Mahon	Warren Regina	14.8
15	12	Brianna Albers	Richmond	15.4
16	11	Allie Komarowski	St. Clair	17.9
17	12	Gabby Fernandez	Warren Regina	19.7
18	12	Abagayle Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	21.3
19	10	Molly McNabb	St. Clair	21.4
20	10	Pauline Chapman	Richmond	22.1
21	9	Ella Thornton	St. Clair	22.3
22	10	Abigail Denoyer	Armada	23.2
23	12	Eliza Nelson	Croswell-Lexington	25.0
24	12	Casidhe Flesher	Marine City	25.7
25	10	Paulina Chapman	Richmond	25.8
26	11	Isabella LaPerriere	Macomb Lutheran North	26.8
27	12	Ella Deshon	Marysville	27.2
28	10	Aubrey Sargent	St. Clair	27.6
29	9	Avery Stallmann	Macomb Lutheran North	27.9
30	9	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	29.0

Anything Intriguing?

One single point separating Warren Regina and Cros-Lex. I have a feeling the Saddlelites are underrated because of their tough stretch of Kensington then County with a two-day break. On the other hand, the Pioneers are your defending champs with upperclass girls ready to defend that crown.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#19 Yale
#21 St. Clair

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

24^th place behind the usually strong St. Clair and Yale teams.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Yale	37	1.2	76	95+
2	St. Clair	40	1.8	24	95+
3	Macomb Lutheran North	74	3.0		95+
4	Marysville	160	4.8
5	Madison Heights Lamphere	164	5.2
6	Marine City	166	5.5
7	Armada	174	6.5
8	Richmond	206	8.0
9	Croswell-Lexington	237	9.1
10	Harper Woods	261	10.0
11	Detroit East English	318	11.2
12	Center Line	322	11.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brewer Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	1.1
2	12	Blake Ferguson	Yale	3.1
3	12	Giovanni Pardo-Keegan	Yale	3.2
4	12	Acer Campbell	Yale	4.0
5	12	Vinny Schweihofer	St. Clair	4.6
6	12	Dylan Distelrath	St. Clair	5.6
7	12	Anthony Goatley	Madison Heights Lamphere	8.4
8	12	Jamison Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	8.5
9	11	Jerry Westrick	St. Clair	9.8
10	9	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	10.0
11	12	Dylan Schumann	St. Clair	10.4
12	11	Teddy Rutkofske	Yale	14.6
13	11	Wyatt Murtos	Yale	14.9
14	10	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	15.5
15	11	Kale Kovach	Yale	15.6
16	12	Luke Nawrocki	Armada	18.3
17	11	Pete Lutz	Madison Heights Lamphere	19.6
18	10	Brayden Prieskorn	St. Clair	20.6
19	12	Nathan VanderMeulen	Marysville	20.6
20	9	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	20.8
21	11	Korbyn Thornton	St. Clair	21.1
22	12	Alex Robertson	Marine City	21.8
23	10	Ross Wallace	Harper Woods	22.8
24	10	Nolan Korolden	Yale	25.0
25	12	Jayden Robertson	Marine City	26.3
26	11	Georgio Aramouni	Madison Heights Lamphere	26.8
27	9	Javaris Jackson	Harper Woods	28.5
28	11	Grayson Sutherland	Macomb Lutheran North	28.6
29	12	Tyler Buckland	Armada	28.8
30	10	Dalton Ross	Marine City	31.9

Anything Intriguing?

Another year of the perennial Yale/St. Clair battle. They’re gonna start giving this rivalry a name soon. The team from up north has claimed victory in the three matchups at Muskrat, Portage, and Marysville. But the Saints just raced to PR’s from over 50% of their athletes at Metro Beach.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#1 Romeo
#14 Macomb Dakota
#16 Fraser

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

23^rd place, about as deep into these as you’ll get.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	20	1.0	95+	95+
2	Macomb Dakota	75	2.5		95+
3	Fraser	75	2.5		95+
4	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	118	4.1
5	Grosse Pointe South	145	4.9
6	Utica Eisenhower	203	6.4
7	Chippewa Valley	216	7.1
8	Port Huron Northern	237	8.1
9	Grosse Pointe North	243	8.5
10	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	293	10.5
11	L’Anse Creuse North	304	11.3
12	Anchor Bay	304	11.3
13	L’Anse Creuse	337	12.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	1.4
2	10	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	2.5
3	12	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota	3.0
4	10	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	3.5
5	11	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	5.5
6	12	Mariah Belmont	Macomb Dakota	7.0
7	10	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	8.1
8	11	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	8.2
9	11	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	8.9
10	11	Grace Grupido	Fraser	9.0
11	10	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	12.5
12	12	Lauren Thomas	Anchor Bay	14.4
13	12	Remi Flanz	Fraser	15.3
14	10	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	15.5
15	11	Savannah Spangler	Grosse Pointe South	16.8
16	12	Gracie Youngblood	Romeo	17.0
17	11	Charlotte Long	Utica Eisenhower	17.3
18	10	Olivia Cereska	Fraser	17.7
19	12	Sydney Gergics	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	20.0
20	9	Maggie Baginski	Utica Eisenhower	22.5
21	11	Julia Timpa	Macomb Dakota	24.3
22	11	Luciana Rodriguez	Fraser	24.3
23	12	Morgan Deenik	Grosse Pointe South	26.7
24	9	Aubrey Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	27.0
25	11	Chloe Caulfield	Grosse Pointe South	27.5
26	12	Alyssa Ko	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	28.1
27	11	Shelby Stabile	L’Anse Creuse	28.4
28	12	Grace Gutmann	Chippewa Valley	29.0
29	10	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern	29.4
30	9	Lilianna Peace	Chippewa Valley	29.9

Anything Intriguing?

Last year, it was their boys breaking the 36 year drought. Fraser’s girls have a nearly 20 year absence from the State Finals and it appears they’re in prime position to make a return voyage to Brooklyn. Also, does anyone have a clue on these additional qualifiers?

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#8 Romeo
#14 Macomb Dakota
#25 Anchor Bay

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

16^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	59	1.3	71	95+
2	Macomb Dakota	64	1.7	29	95+
3	Anchor Bay	95	3.0		95+
4	Utica Eisenhower	165	4.9
5	Grosse Pointe South	167	4.7
6	L’Anse Creuse North	184	6.2
7	Port Huron Northern	193	7.1
8	Chippewa Valley	209	8.3
9	Grosse Pointe North	220	8.9
10	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	233	10.0
11	Fraser	237	10.0
12	L’Anse Creuse	289	12.3
13	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	303	12.6
14	Warren DeLaSalle	375	14.0
15	Warren Woods Tower	447	15.0
16	Roseville	527	16.4
17	Port Huron	532	16.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Thomas Westphal	Anchor Bay	1.4
2	12	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo	1.8
3	12	Carter Fox	Macomb Dakota	3.6
4	12	Connor Clor	Romeo	4.2
5	12	Tyler Brothers	Utica Eisenhower	6.2
6	12	Dylan Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	7.2
7	12	Simon Davis	Macomb Dakota	8.3
8	12	Jack DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	10.4
9	11	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	11.1
10	12	Luke Oyster	Utica Eisenhower	11.2
11	12	Brandon Penberthy	L’Anse Creuse North	11.2
12	11	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota	12.0
13	12	Bryce Goodsell	Romeo	13.1
14	12	Zachary Rubicz	Anchor Bay	14.8
15	12	Luke VanderHeuvel	Port Huron Northern	15.9
16	10	Brock Washburn	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	17.9
17	12	Luke Maher	Port Huron Northern	20.5
18	10	Luke Allen	Romeo	21.0
19	12	Michael Magnoli	Romeo	21.1
20	11	Aidan Daly	L’Anse Creuse	21.7
21	12	Jet Miller	Grosse Pointe South	22.5
22	12	Tommy Caulfield	Grosse Pointe South	23.0
23	12	Aidan Leslie	Anchor Bay	24.1
24	11	Greg Vogt	Anchor Bay	24.7
25	11	Caleb Kosel	Grosse Pointe North	25.4
26	10	Eric DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	25.6
27	12	David Rochon	Grosse Pointe North	28.1
28	10	James Brickel	Romeo	28.6
29	10	Lance Edghill	Fraser	29.5
30	12	Gabe Rusch	Anchor Bay	30.0

Anything Intriguing?

The championship rubber match between Macomb Dakota and Romeo. Thanks to an ever-improving Bryce Goodsell, the Bulldogs captured the County crown. Lucas LaMilza and Colton Howell had big efforts in the Cougar win at The Beach. Who steps up to grab this trophy?