2023 Regional Projections: DeWitt Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#4 Pewamo-Westphalia
#6 Stanton Central Montcalm

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	32	1.1	87	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	38	1.9	13	95+
3	Laingsburg	93	3.0		95+
4	Ovid-Elsie	136	4.1
5	New Lothrop	151	5.2
6	Almont	158	5.7
7	Bath	189	7.2
8	Chesaning	196	8.0
9	Perry	211	8.8
10	Montrose	253	10.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.0
2	11	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.0
3	11	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.1
4	10	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.9
5	9	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.8
6	12	Melanie Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	6.1
7	10	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.1
8	10	Anna Poppema	Bath	8.3
9	11	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	9.1
10	9	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia	10.5
11	9	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	11.0
12	10	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	11.5
13	10	Lilly Rooks	Pewamo-Westphalia	12.2
14	12	Isabell Helman	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.9
15	11	Piper White	Ovid-Elsie	16.0
16	10	Laila Evola	Almont	16.0
17	11	Evelyn Logghe	Laingsburg	18.5
18	10	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm	18.8
19	10	Hazel Burley	Laingsburg	19.3
20	12	Ayla DeLaurier	Almont	22.2
21	12	Kaia Spiess	Ovid-Elsie	22.3
22	12	Taylor Bailey	Chesaning	22.7
23	9	Samantha Gutzman	Laingsburg	22.8
24	11	Addison Rusz	Laingsburg	23.7
25	12	Hannah Oakes	Chesaning	26.0
26	12	Klara Mulcahy	New Lothrop	27.4
27	12	Sara Dammann	New Lothrop	27.6
28	10	Mackenzie Hills	Bath	27.7
29	11	Lexy Andres	New Lothrop	29.4
30	12	Josie Bauman	New Lothrop	31.6

Any Intriguing Battles?

Will Stanton Central Montcalm pull off the upset and bust through the perennially strong Pirate pack? I think there’s a better chance on the girls side, although both are fully capable. Paths to victory include placing three very highly or their 4^th and 5^th picking up some very manageable spots late.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#2 Pewamo-Westphalia
#6 Stanton Central Montcalm
#14 Bath

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Going all the way down to 25^th(!!!) place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	40	1.1	94	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	47	1.9	6	95+
3	Bath	62	3.0		95+
4	Ovid-Elsie	158	4.9
5	Laingsburg	159	4.7
6	New Lothrop	181	6.0
7	Almont	194	6.7
8	Montrose	240	8.6
9	Chesaning	253	9.4
10	Perry	260	9.6
11	Memphis	272	10.5
12	Mt Morris	299	11.9
13	Burton-Bendle	333	12.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Collin Farmer	Pewamo-Westphalia	1.1
2	10	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	2.1
3	12	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.1
4	12	Carter Holmes	Bath	5.2
5	10	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	6.1
6	10	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	6.6
7	9	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.0
8	11	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	9.3
9	9	River Fox	Bath	10.2
10	11	Luke Skidmore	Bath	10.9
11	9	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.5
12	11	Sam Muirhead	Pewamo-Westphalia	11.6
13	12	Andrew Koenigsknecht	Bath	11.8
14	11	Clay Powell	Ovid-Elsie	12.0
15	9	Nolan Mitchell	Pewamo-Westphalia	14.4
16	10	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm	16.0
17	9	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	16.4
18	10	Evan Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	19.0
19	9	Kai Fisher	Memphis	21.6
20	11	Lieu Vincke	New Lothrop	23.7
21	10	Madden Starkweather	Bath	23.8
22	11	Kevin Heslip	New Lothrop	24.7
23	12	Josiah Curry	Stanton Central Montcalm	25.6
24	10	Joshua Miller	Ovid-Elsie	25.9
25	9	Jaxon Hemgesberg	Chesaning	26.3
26	12	Kyle Baldwin	Mt Morris	28.8
27	9	Tyler Rockafellow	Perry	29.1
28	9	Colton Grzyb	Almont	29.4
29	11	Felix Ramirez	Laingsburg	29.9
30	11	James Kelly	Ovid-Elsie	31.0

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#9 DeWitt
#11 St. Johns
#15 Owosso

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

18^th place with these top-heavy squads.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	DeWitt	57	1.4	60	95+
2	St. Johns	60	1.6	40	95+
3	Owosso	83	2.9		95+
4	Mason	137	4.5
5	Haslett	144	5.0
6	Williamston	153	5.6
7	Parma Western	188	7.5
8	Charlotte	191	7.6
9	Corunna	207	8.8
10	Fowlerville	254	10.1
11	Eaton Rapids	277	10.9
12	Jackson Northwest	316	12.0
13	Lansing Eastern	396	13.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.2
2	12	Meghan Ford	Mason	1.8
3	12	Abby Young	St. Johns	3.7
4	11	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	3.8
5	10	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	7.1
6	12	Clara Fletcher	St. Johns	7.3
7	12	Libby Summerland	Owosso	11.0
8	11	Ayla Holben	DeWitt	11.1
9	10	Emma Crandell	Owosso	11.1
10	9	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	11.8
11	11	Autumn Thompson	DeWitt	12.1
12	11	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	12.2
13	10	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	12.3
14	11	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	13.0
15	11	Mia Williams	DeWitt	14.0
16	12	Dora Henry	Haslett	15.2
17	10	Reese Supianoski	Williamston	17.1
18	11	Hayven Thiel	Corunna	17.6
19	9	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna	18.8
20	10	Isabella Taber	DeWitt	19.3
21	11	Julionna West	Owosso	21.0
22	10	Abby Russel	Haslett	22.5
23	11	Ryleigh Hanlin	DeWitt	24.3
24	9	Colette Charchut	Haslett	25.0
25	11	Raquel Curey	Parma Western	26.3
26	11	Natalie Summerland	Owosso	26.6
27	10	Avari Montgomery	Charlotte	27.7
28	12	Analise Chelotti	DeWitt	28.9
29	10	Aubrey Metzger	Mason	29.5
30	10	Delaney Richardson	Fowlerville	30.9

Any Intriguing Battles?

DeWitt has been coming on strong as of late, entering the top-10 through their results from Greater Lansing and the CAAC Blue, the Panthers finishing 2^nd in each. Do they have enough depth to overcome the Redwings’ powerful top-3?

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#24 Parma Western
#26 St. Johns
#27 DeWitt

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th Place, as this seems to be a much better individual region than a team region.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	DeWitt	85	1.7	51	95+
2	Parma Western	87	2.0	29	95+
3	St. Johns	92	2.7	16	78
4	Corunna	108	3.6		29
5	Mason	146	5.5
6	Haslett	148	5.5
7	Eaton Rapids	184	7.0
8	Williamston	220	8.3
9	Fowlerville	233	8.7
10	Charlotte	267	10.0
11	Owosso	305	11.9
12	Lansing Waverly	308	12.1
13	Jackson Northwest	309	12.4
14	Lansing Eastern	329	13.6
15	Lansing Sexton	499	15.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Nate Carmody	Haslett	1.3
2	11	Alex Doneth	Mason	2.8
3	11	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	3.0
4	12	Isaac Staib	St. Johns	4.4
5	11	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	4.7
6	10	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	6.7
7	12	Cooper Singleton	Parma Western	6.8
8	9	Ryan Good	Parma Western	7.9
9	12	Matthew Schrauben	St. Johns	8.1
10	11	Simon Erfourth	Owosso	11.7
11	12	Brennan McKone	DeWitt	12.0
12	11	Conner McCormick	Mason	12.1
13	10	Payton Chandler	Corunna	12.9
14	11	Jack Huntington	Eaton Rapids	15.9
15	11	Lucas Moore	Fowlerville	17.0
16	11	Braylen Eaton	Charlotte	17.3
17	11	Bobby Donley	Corunna	17.3
18	10	Aidan Roka	Corunna	18.4
19	12	Xander Maliska	St. Johns	18.8
20	9	Mason Raborn	DeWitt	22.9
21	12	Kenny Evans	Corunna	23.1
22	11	Jackson Walthorn	DeWitt	23.3
23	11	Ian Goodrich	DeWitt	26.6
24	12	Daniel Wilson	Williamston	27.3
25	10	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	28.2
26	10	Grant Conley	Charlotte	29.2
27	11	Gabi Martinez	Lansing Eastern	30.1
28	9	Will Chelotti	DeWitt	31.0
29	11	Drew Holevac	Eaton Rapids	31.4
30	11	Nathan Szilagyi	Fowlerville	31.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

Can Corunna shock the world again? Last year, the Cavaliers qualified for State as a longshot, coming in with a 6% chance. They’re almost 5x as likely this time around and as expected, just blasted the field at Shiawassee County.