2023 Regional Projections: Shrine Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#11 Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
#19 Royal Oak Shrine
#22 Allen Park Cabrini

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	43	1.1	89	95+
2	Royal Oak Shrine	52	1.9	11	95+
3	Allen Park Cabrini	67	3.0		95+
4	Plymouth Christian Academy	103	4.0
5	Birmingham Roeper	144	5.2
6	Southfield Christian	152	6.0
7	Academy of the Sacred Heart	162	6.8
8	Austin Catholic	209	8.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ava Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	1.1
2	11	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	2.1
3	10	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	4.6
4	10	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran Westland	4.7
5	12	Leah Zarrilli	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	4.8
6	11	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	4.9
7	11	Sarah Goodwin	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	7.7
8	9	Louisa Denks	Royal Oak Shrine	8.5
9	11	Rose Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	9.6
10	12	Karis Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	12.6
11	9	Josephine Malcolm	Royal Oak Shrine	13.6
12	11	Grace Kendziuk	Allen Park Cabrini	13.6
13	12	Morgan McNally	Academy of the Sacred Heart	15.6
14	11	Annaliese Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	15.8
15	12	Grace Ligon	Southfield Christian	17.0
16	10	Maya Ferguson	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	17.1
17	11	Isobel Malcolm	Royal Oak Shrine	17.3
18	11	Tess Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	19.0
19	12	Nicole Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	19.3
20	9	Kassie Kozlo	Allen Park Cabrini	19.3
21	9	Sydney Erickson	Lutheran Westland	21.8
22	12	Leah Kroge	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	22.0
23	10	Clara Groen	Plymouth Christian Academy	22.8
24	12	Kaitlyn Jabczenski	Allen Park Cabrini	23.6
25	12	Soleil Weaver	Plymouth Christian Academy	24.0
26	11	Chloe Surhigh	Royal Oak Shrine	24.5
27	12	Emma Smith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	28.2
28	10	Sarah Abazi	Southfield Christian	28.9
29	12	Ella Bush	Riverview Gabriel Richard	30.9
30	11	Addison Geisler	New Haven Merritt Academy	31.7

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#13 Marine City Cardinal Mooney
#14 Royal Oak Shrine
#17 Lutheran Westland
#22 Auburn Hills Oakland Christian

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Any combination of these top-25 outfits could make it, so get yourself into the top-15 and guarantee a spot! And if not, don’t give up.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Royal Oak Shrine	84	2.1	28	93
2	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	84	2.3	34	83
3	Lutheran Westland	87	2.4	25	80
4	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	93	3.2	13	44
5	Riverview Gabriel Richard	136	5.1
6	Birmingham Roeper	149	6.0
7	Plymouth Christian Academy	162	7.0
8	Detroit Frederick Douglass	183	8.0
9	Allen Park Cabrini	214	9.1
10	Austin Catholic	227	9.8
11	New Haven Merritt Academy	321	11.0
12	Detroit Davis Aerospace	362	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	1.5
2	12	Tyler Lenn	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	1.6
3	10	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	4.6
4	10	Rich Fanti	Riverview Gabriel Richard	5.3
5	12	Isaac Zammit	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	5.8
6	9	Vern Clyne	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	7.4
7	10	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland	7.8
8	10	Joel Johnson	Detroit Frederick Douglass	8.4
9	10	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	9.2
10	10	Andrew Lopez	Royal Oak Shrine	10.0
11	12	Evan Sumner	Plymouth Christian Academy	10.5
12	11	Tom Shafer	Lutheran Westland	10.7
13	12	Luke Douglas	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	11.9
14	9	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard	13.5
15	10	Goni Wong	Birmingham Roeper	15.7
16	12	Tommy Abazi	Southfield Christian	19.4
17	11	Nico DiPonio	Austin Catholic	19.7
18	12	Adrian Smith	Detroit Frederick Douglass	19.9
19	12	Max Procissi	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	20.3
20	12	Jeffrey McGuire	Lutheran Westland	20.4
21	9	Uzziel Thomassen	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	21.1
22	10	Dominic Barretto	Riverview Gabriel Richard	22.8
23	11	Evan Jacobs	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	23.1
24	10	Caesar Soma	Royal Oak Shrine	23.4
25	10	Andrew Abramowicz	Lutheran Westland	24.8
26	10	William Storrie	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	26.5
27	12	Joshua Reddypogu	Southfield Christian	26.8
28	12	Nathan Betke	Lutheran Westland	27.9
29	10	Carter Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	31.4
30	11	Ralph Kaleniecki	Allen Park Cabrini	31.8