2023 Regional Projections: East Jordan Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Johannesburg-Lewiston
#5 Harbor Springs

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st or 22^nd place. Since Joburg and HS are so strong up front, these numbers get pushed back a tad.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Johannesburg-Lewiston	31	1.0	95+	95+
2	Harbor Springs	51	2.0		95+
3	Petoskey St. Michael	103	3.1		87
4	Gaylord St. Mary	113	3.9		12
5	East Jordan	127	5.2
6	Rogers City	138	5.8
7	Bellaire	160	7.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	1.1
2	11	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	2.7
3	12	Miriam Murrell	Gaylord St. Mary	4.0
4	9	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	4.1
5	10	Yolanda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.4
6	12	Madalyn Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.7
7	9	Harlie Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	6.8
8	11	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	6.8
9	9	Avery Langlois	Rogers City	9.0
10	9	Elizabeth Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes	11.6
11	9	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	13.9
12	10	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	14.0
13	9	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	14.3
14	11	McKenzie Bowman	Harbor Springs	14.7
15	12	Cora Mullins	Johannesburg-Lewiston	15.7
16	9	Julia Clarke	Harbor Springs	17.0
17	11	Elke Knauf	East Jordan	17.2
18	12	Rosalinda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	18.1
19	9	Genevieve Rodham	Harbor Springs	18.7
20	12	Sydney Feagan	Petoskey St. Michael	19.3
21	9	Ruby Pletcher	Ellsworth	19.3
22	9	Avary Bearden	East Jordan	21.1
23	11	Grace Hayhurst	Harbor Springs	21.2
24	10	Bailey Thompson	Gaylord St. Mary	23.9
25	9	Isabella Hocking	Bellaire	26.3
26	10	Taylor Hefele	Rogers City	26.9
27	12	Jessie Ross	Fairview	28.6
28	12	Alex Dawson	Bellaire	29.5
29	9	Madison Fiedorek	East Jordan	29.6
30	9	Maya Dodd	Gaylord St. Mary	29.9

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#2 Johannesburg-Lewiston
#9 Harbor Springs
#20 Petoskey St. Michael

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

With the top-3 squads dominating the lower finishes, 21^st place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Johannesburg-Lewiston	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Harbor Springs	58	2.0		95+
3	Petoskey St. Michael	78	3.0		95+
4	Lincoln-Alcona	119	4.7
5	East Jordan	128	5.1
6	Fairview	134	5.6
7	Ellsworth	149	7.0
8	Mackinaw City	159	7.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Malaki Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	1.7
2	12	Blake Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	2.2
3	11	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	2.5
4	10	Lynus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	3.9
5	10	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	5.3
6	12	Trevor Clarke	Harbor Springs	7.7
7	10	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	8.5
8	10	Adam Ferguson	Harbor Springs	9.0
9	11	Russell Vandermus	Petoskey St. Michael	10.5
10	12	Logan Kihnke	Harbor Springs	11.6
11	11	Austin Sneed	East Jordan	12.1
12	12	Dusty Layman	Johannesburg-Lewiston	12.3
13	10	Cole Brege	Rogers City	15.1
14	12	Carter Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	15.8
15	8	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	16.3
16	10	Max Vroman	Harbor Springs	16.4
17	10	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	17.2
18	10	Nicholas Trader	Fairview	19.9
19	11	Jacob Chamberlain	East Jordan	20.0
20	11	Drake Fulton	Johannesburg-Lewiston	20.6
21	12	Tyler DeYoung	Ellsworth	20.7
22	11	Teddy Krieger	Harbor Springs	20.9
23	12	Patrick Puroll	Ellsworth	22.2
24	12	Isaac Black	East Jordan	24.4
25	10	Sean Bernard	Hale	24.6
26	10	Darren Boyat	Lincoln-Alcona	24.7
27	9	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview	26.5
28	10	Braylon Currie	Mackinaw City	28.5
29	11	Logan McMullen	Indian River Inland Lakes	30.2
30	10	Paxton Downing	Hale	30.8

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Traverse City St. Francis
#5 Elk Rapids

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21^st Place. Should be pretty easy to spot the additional qualifiers.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	29	1.0	95+	95+
2	Elk Rapids	46	2.0		95+
3	Clare	119	3.0		95+
4	Grayling	157	4.6
5	Charlevoix	162	4.9
6	Boyne City	172	5.8
7	Kalkaska	187	6.9
8	Farwell	200	7.8
9	Tawas	234	9.8
10	Mancelona	235	9.9
11	Standish-Sterling	238	10.3

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	1.0
2	10	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	3.1
3	9	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	3.6
4	11	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	4.6
5	9	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	5.1
6	11	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	6.2
7	12	Maddie Gallagher	Traverse City St. Francis	6.7
8	10	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	7.2
9	11	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	10.0
10	10	Sarah Trojanowski	Traverse City St. Francis	12.1
11	12	Tessa Wohlschlegel	Beaverton	12.9
12	12	Emily Anger	Mancelona	13.0
13	10	Delaney Little	Boyne City	13.6
14	12	Eva Pray	Elk Rapids	13.8
15	12	Jaida Schulte	Elk Rapids	14.0
16	12	Margot Hagerty	Traverse City St. Francis	16.5
17	12	Ella Peck	Elk Rapids	17.8
18	9	Nico Triebold	Grayling	18.1
19	10	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	18.3
20	9	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	19.0
21	10	Myah Little	Kalkaska	19.4
22	9	Elizabeth Letherer	Clare	20.2
23	9	Lauren Leis	Clare	23.7
24	12	Katie Rohrer	Charlevoix	25.5
25	10	Joelle Swanson	Elk Rapids	25.8
26	10	Laura Spyker	Standish-Sterling	26.7
27	10	Cambrynne Giem	Boyne City	28.2
28	12	Jocelyn Millikin	Grayling	30.7
29	9	Davylynn Christie	Standish-Sterling	33.3
30	11	Adrianna Soria	Grayling	33.5

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#1 Traverse City St. Francis
#10 Clare
#16 Charlevoix
#19 Kalkaska
#26 Elk Rapids

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

The #GladPack should occupy many spots in the top-15, after that, individuals can be for the taking. 21^st-22^nd place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	31	1.0	95+	95+
2	Clare	69	2.0		95+
3	Charlevoix	93	3.2		77
4	Kalkaska	102	3.8		23
5	Elk Rapids	121	5.0
6	Boyne City	200	6.6
7	Roscommon	206	6.9
8	Grayling	218	7.6
9	Mancelona	296	9.8
10	Standish-Sterling	296	10.0
11	Harrison	303	10.4
12	Tawas	328	11.8
13	Beaverton	358	13.0
14	Charlton Heston Academy	408	14.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brad White	Clare	1.9
2	11	Leo Swager	Traverse City St. Francis	2.2
3	12	Gavin Guggemos	Kalkaska	3.8
4	11	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	4.6
5	12	Tucker Krumm	Traverse City St. Francis	6.4
6	9	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	7.3
7	12	Andrew Klaus	Clare	8.9
8	11	Owen Read	Traverse City St. Francis	10.0
9	11	Robby Myler	Traverse City St. Francis	10.3
10	10	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	10.6
11	11	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	10.8
12	11	Tristan Demlow	Grayling	12.5
13	12	Drew Moore	Grayling	12.6
14	11	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	13.1
15	12	Nic Porter	Clare	13.4
16	12	Adam Williams	Kalkaska	17.0
17	9	Connor Schmidt	Clare	18.0
18	10	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	18.1
19	11	Max Ward	Elk Rapids	18.4
20	12	Camden Moore	Kalkaska	18.7
21	11	David Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	19.5
22	9	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	20.8
23	10	Jacob Veurink	Charlevoix	24.4
24	12	Christian Kerfoot	Elk Rapids	24.6
25	12	Jaymes Wildfong	Mancelona	25.2
26	9	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	26.2
27	10	Coltrane Paryani	Kalkaska	27.9
28	9	Maxwell Drenth	Charlevoix	28.6
29	11	Caidan Gaskill	Clare	29.5
30	12	Seth Brown	Elk Rapids	32.2