2023 Regional Projections: Happy Acres Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#1 Whitmore Lake
#14 Novi Christian Academy
#21 Lansing Christian
#25 Fowler
#27 Livingston Christian

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

17^th Place, behind all them Whitmore Lake Trojans.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Whitmore Lake	21	1.0	95+	95+
2	Novi Christian Academy	73	2.1		95+
3	Lansing Christian	85	2.9		95+
4	Fowler	105	4.3
5	Livingston Christian	108	4.8
6	Portland St. Patrick	123	5.9
7	Byron	197	7.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake	1.0
2	10	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	2.2
3	10	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	3.9
4	10	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	4.5
5	12	Natalie Meadows	Whitmore Lake	4.9
6	12	Isabella Yeoman	Genesee	5.5
7	12	Ellayna Meredith	Portland St. Patrick	8.1
8	11	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	8.7
9	9	Adrienne Mitchell	Lansing Christian	9.3
10	10	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	10.8
11	11	Ava Mustapha	Lansing Christian	13.1
12	12	Mya Guillermo	Novi Christian Academy	13.3
13	8	Madison Markowicz	Novi Christian Academy	14.0
14	10	Abigail Yatooma	Novi Christian Academy	15.3
15	11	Brooke Sonnenberg	Genesee Christian Academy	17.5
16	9	Ezrielle Martin	Livingston Christian	18.5
17	11	Autumn Reynolds	Potterville	18.7
18	9	Marian Davlin	Portland St. Patrick	19.2
19	12	Josie Dubuc	Novi Christian Academy	19.8
20	12	Ciara Parsons	Whitmore Lake	21.4
21	12	Autumn Troupe	Novi Christian Academy	21.8
22	12	Rebecca Smith	Fowler	22.5
23	10	Juliette Tallon	Lansing Christian	22.6
24	9	Isabella Halfmann	Fowler	23.9
25	10	Averie Zinn	Genesee	25.3
26	11	Isabella Nelson-Daniels	Whitmore Lake	25.8
27	8	Abigail Galazka	Livingston Christian	26.4
28	9	Annie Wernet	Lansing Christian	28.9
29	12	Grace O’Hare	Fowler	29.9
30	12	Hope Tebben	Lansing Christian	30.1

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#23 Whitmore Lake

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Get in the top-15! My guess is 80% of the top-10 finishers are from non-qualifying teams.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Whitmore Lake	71	1.0	95+	95+
2	Novi Christian Academy	112	2.3		94
3	Fowler	122	3.1		73
4	Lansing Christian	138	4.7		12
5	Byron	140	4.9		16
6	Portland St. Patrick	143	5.4
7	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	165	7.1
8	Webberville	184	8.4
9	Livingston Christian	185	8.5
10	Potterville	206	9.9
11	Genesee	224	10.8
12	Genesee Christian Academy	252	11.9
13	Morrice	303	13.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	1.5
2	10	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick	2.4
3	12	Connor Rouse	Genesee	3.0
4	12	Trevor Feldpausch	Fowler	5.0
5	10	Josiah Johncox	Byron	5.4
6	12	Ethan Gray	Byron	9.2
7	10	Quentin Smith	Fowler	9.3
8	10	Tyler Langfeldt	Potterville	9.8
9	10	Ben Young	Lansing Christian	10.8
10	11	Aaron Crittenden	Potterville	11.7
11	11	Nate Dillon	Whitmore Lake	12.2
12	9	Benjamin Fox	Whitmore Lake	14.1
13	10	Isaac FoxElster	Portland St. Patrick	14.6
14	10	Nathan Camilleri	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	14.7
15	10	Gavin Howery	Webberville	15.5
16	10	Reuben Jiran	Novi Christian Academy	16.6
17	12	Luke Shenton	Novi Christian Academy	17.8
18	11	Karl Wegner	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	18.2
19	12	Reily Henderson	Whitmore Lake	18.7
20	11	Samuel Hubbard	Livingston Christian	19.0
21	10	Ethan West	Webberville	19.8
22	12	Jobe Skaff	Novi Christian Academy	21.2
23	10	Ian Ferguson	Genesee Christian Academy	22.9
24	11	Caleb Valentine	Whitmore Lake	24.8
25	8	Trey Johnson	Livingston Christian	24.9
26	12	Ryan Williams	Novi Christian Academy	25.8
27	10	Matias Greve	Lansing Christian	26.1
28	9	Landon Miller	Fowler	26.2
29	9	Francis Austen	Portland St. Patrick	27.3
30	9	Nolan Gallagher	Novi Christian Academy	30.8