2023 Regional Projections: Portage Central (Saturday)

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#18 Buchanan
#27 Bridgman

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th-17^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Buchanan	60	1.1	90	95+
2	Bridgman	81	2.0	10	95+
3	Union City	106	3.5		51
4	Schoolcraft	106	3.6		50
5	Kalamazoo Christian	128	5.0
6	Niles Brandywine	144	6.0
7	Watervliet	155	6.8
8	Lawton	192	8.2
9	Olivet	207	8.8
10	Hartford	269	10.1
11	Bangor	297	11.0
12	Constantine	343	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	1.6
2	12	Angel Miller	Parchment	3.6
3	9	Alli Gautsche	Union City	3.9
4	11	Emma Miller	Buchanan	5.9
5	11	Madeline Young	Buchanan	6.6
6	12	Morgan Lowell	Watervliet	6.9
7	12	Olivea Gessner	Olivet	7.4
8	11	Clara Fast	Bridgman	7.6
9	10	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	8.2
10	11	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	8.6
11	11	Skyler Fraley	Union City	10.3
12	10	Alaina Nagel	Buchanan	12.3
13	11	Melanie Warren	Bridgman	12.3
14	11	Kimberly Romero	Watervliet	15.7
15	11	Emily Howell	Bridgman	17.5
16	10	Adyson Baker	Buchanan	17.6
17	12	Jenna VanDussen	Schoolcraft	18.2
18	9	Hadley Camp	Lawton	19.0
19	10	Sydney Olson	Niles Brandywine	19.4
20	11	Aubree Murray	Niles Brandywine	20.8
21	11	Alissa Skirka	Union City	21.7
22	12	Alyssa VanDussen	Schoolcraft	23.4
23	11	Lucy Bray	Kalamazoo Christian	24.3
24	11	Marykate Thomas	Kalamazoo Christian	25.7
25	11	Miley Young	Niles Brandywine	26.0
26	10	Makynna Williams	Buchanan	26.5
27	9	Brooke Schlutt	Buchanan	27.1
28	9	Anika Weurding	Lawton	27.2
29	11	Addison Blodgett	Schoolcraft	28.0
30	11	Lillian Wolf	Hartford	29.8

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#17 Buchanan
#22 Olivet

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Top-15! With a bit weaker teams compared to individuals, expect the top spots in the region to be comprised of additional qualifiers.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Buchanan	66	1.0	95+	95+
2	Olivet	85	2.0		95+
3	Union City	124	3.2		81
4	Bridgman	145	4.2		18
5	Constantine	169	5.7
6	Bloomingdale	177	6.1
7	Schoolcraft	183	6.5
8	Kalamazoo Christian	198	7.5
9	Parchment	234	9.1
10	Coloma	256	10.4
11	Bangor	269	11.2
12	Watervliet	281	11.8
13	Hartford	297	12.4
14	Galesburg-Augusta	346	14.0
15	Lawton	410	15.0
16	Comstock	477	16.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Boden Genovese	Coloma	1.3
2	12	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	2.4
3	12	Lucas Hopkins	Olivet	3.0
4	11	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	3.7
5	10	Ben Gautsche	Union City	4.9
6	11	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	7.0
7	12	Conner Fountain	Olivet	7.3
8	11	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	7.6
9	10	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	9.9
10	11	Robbie King	Constantine	11.2
11	12	Britain Philip	Buchanan	11.6
12	10	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	13.3
13	10	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	13.8
14	11	Tyler Caruso	Bangor	15.4
15	11	Elliot Cole	Parchment	16.0
16	11	Coy Weinberg	Buchanan	17.2
17	11	Carter Stevens	Galesburg-Augusta	18.1
18	12	Aiden Cripe	Coloma	19.8
19	11	Keagan Cole	Parchment	20.5
20	9	Cullen Decker	Union City	21.6
21	10	Alessandro Avila	Constantine	21.9
22	12	William Rodriquez	Bridgman	23.3
23	12	Daniel Dryer	Olivet	23.9
24	12	Brad Salmon	Bridgman	24.1
25	11	Zack Mitchell	Kalamazoo Christian	24.4
26	10	Evan Schaefer	Olivet	24.7
27	11	Cohen Burdick	Union City	28.7
28	9	Landen Gessner	Olivet	29.2
29	12	Jacob Williams	Kalamazoo Christian	30.6
30	11	Logan Patmalnieks	Constantine	31.2

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Otsego
#10 St. Joseph

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Around 19^th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	St. Joseph	61	2.0		95+
3	Stevensville Lakeshore	129	3.2		81
4	Sturgis	146	4.4		11
5	Plainwell	152	5.0		8
6	Three Rivers	164	6.1
7	Paw Paw	172	6.6
8	Niles	189	7.9
9	Vicksburg	207	8.9
10	Edwardsburg	258	10.0
11	Allegan	299	11.3
12	Berrien Springs	305	11.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Gail Vaikutis	St. Joseph	1.4
2	11	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	1.9
3	10	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	3.5
4	12	Logan Brazee	Otsego	3.7
5	12	Megan Germain	Otsego	5.1
6	10	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	7.1
7	12	Emma Steele	Vicksburg	8.7
8	11	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	8.8
9	11	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	8.9
10	11	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	10.7
11	10	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	12.2
12	9	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	12.7
13	12	Jennifer Hernandez-Medina	Three Rivers	13.0
14	10	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	13.7
15	12	Jade Murdoch	St. Joseph	14.2
16	11	Charlie Drew	Niles	16.6
17	10	Kate Ort	Stevensville Lakeshore	18.2
18	9	Sydney Timmons	Otsego	19.6
19	12	Cecilia Ruchti	St. Joseph	20.5
20	10	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	21.8
21	11	Emma Taggett	Plainwell	23.7
22	9	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	24.4
23	10	Jayden VandenAkker	Allegan	24.4
24	10	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	24.5
25	11	Annika DeJong	Stevensville Lakeshore	25.4
26	9	Lydia Johnson	St. Joseph	25.4
27	10	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph	25.8
28	9	Sophia Lemieux	Paw Paw	26.0
29	12	Anezka Pradna	Three Rivers	26.3
30	9	Lily Cummings	St. Joseph	28.6

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#9 Otsego
#16 Plainwell

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

The battle for the third team is wide open, so fight for the top-15 and every spot after.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	49	1.1	87	95+
2	Plainwell	61	1.9	13	95+
3	Edwardsburg	136	3.5		64
4	Three Rivers	145	4.5		19
5	Paw Paw	153	4.9		12
6	St. Joseph	161	5.8		5
7	Vicksburg	168	6.4
8	Berrien Springs	212	8.5
9	Niles	217	8.6
10	Sturgis	255	10.3

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Aiden Krueger	Niles	2.2
2	12	Shay White	St. Joseph	3.1
3	11	Henry Cox	Plainwell	3.3
4	11	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	4.9
5	11	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	5.3
6	11	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	7.2
7	12	Dane Bailey	Edwardsburg	8.5
8	12	Isaac Veen	Plainwell	9.0
9	11	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	10.2
10	10	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	10.7
11	11	Noah Jarvis	Berrien Springs	11.6
12	11	Logan VanHouten	Otsego	11.7
13	9	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	12.5
14	10	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	12.9
15	12	Matthew Schreiner	Otsego	14.4
16	12	Liam Troutner	Plainwell	17.0
17	11	Maguire Johnson	Edwardsburg	17.0
18	11	Holten Mulherin	Otsego	17.8
19	11	Skye Smith	Vicksburg	21.4
20	11	Nolan Park	Sturgis	21.8
21	11	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	21.9
22	10	Trent Hansen	Plainwell	22.3
23	12	Eddy Charron	Paw Paw	23.5
24	11	Billy Pipkorn	Plainwell	24.5
25	9	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	24.8
26	11	Jon Leith	Edwardsburg	27.9
27	9	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	28.3
28	10	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	28.6
29	9	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	29.3
30	12	Aden Webber	Paw Paw	31.3