2023 Regional Projections: Buckley Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#9 Buckley
#12 Grand Traverse Academy
#13 Mason County Eastern
#26 Leland

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

18th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Buckley	43	1.3	71	95+
2	Grand Traverse Academy	52	1.8	29	95+
3	Mason County Eastern	70	2.9		95+
4	Leland	105	4.1
5	Frankfort	120	5.1
6	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	130	5.8
7	Pentwater	171	7.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Aiden Harrand	Buckley	1.0
2	11	Ella Knudsen	Leland	2.2
3	9	Addy Zeller	Bear Lake-Onekama	3.9
4	10	Kinsey Peer	Buckley	7.5
5	9	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	7.6
6	10	Lauren Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	8.6
7	10	Brooklynn Frazee	Buckley	8.8
8	12	Paige Bell	Grand Traverse Academy	10.1
9	10	Shenoah Collier	Grand Traverse Academy	10.7
10	11	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	10.8
11	9	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley	11.3
12	10	Addison Chownyk	Frankfort	12.4
13	9	Natalie Burpee	Leland	12.5
14	8	Claire Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	13.4
15	9	Bailey Stephen	Grand Traverse Academy	15.3
16	10	Jennifer Kmiecik	Bear Lake-Onekama	15.9
17	9	Brailyn Johnson	Mason County Eastern	16.7
18	12	Abby Kissling	Brethren	20.3
19	9	Addison Malburg	Mason County Eastern	21.9
20	10	Natalie Brown	Bear Lake-Onekama	22.8
21	9	Kaylee Swanson	Buckley	23.0
22	12	Olivia Wing	Mason County Eastern	23.1
23	9	Ellen Schwaiger	Leland	23.1
24	10	Sofia Alaimo	Frankfort	23.5
25	9	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy	24.8
26	12	Ava Butera	Grand Traverse Academy	24.8
27	9	Bailey Case	Pentwater	25.4
28	9	Tess Hoedel	Grand Traverse Academy	25.7
29	12	Kendra Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	26.9
30	11	Emily Alaimo	Maple City Glen Lake	28.2

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#5 Mason County Eastern
#11 Maple City Glen Lake
#19 Frankfort
#27 Pentwater

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

17th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Mason County Eastern	60	1.0	95+	95+
2	Maple City Glen Lake	86	2.1		95+
3	Frankfort	103	2.9		95+
4	Pentwater	129	4.4
5	Leland	136	5.0
6	Bear Lake-Onekama	149	6.0
7	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	170	7.7
8	Mesick	171	7.8
9	Grand Traverse Academy	178	8.2
10	Walkerville	250	10.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	1.8
2	12	Abe VanDuinen	Pentwater	2.6
3	9	Kyle Redman	Mesick	3.3
4	11	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	4.2
5	11	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	4.6
6	9	Ty Redman	Mesick	5.4
7	12	Kaden Forward	Bear Lake-Onekama	6.4
8	12	Mitchel Daniels	Pentwater	8.7
9	9	Sebastian Dunaway	Frankfort	9.8
10	11	Carroll Robotham	Frankfort	10.6
11	12	Luke Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	11.5
12	9	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	12.9
13	11	Henry Malburg	Mason County Eastern	14.0
14	9	Milo Shoup	Mason County Eastern	15.0
15	12	Peter Hybza	Mason County Eastern	15.5
16	10	Keith Crompton	Frankfort	15.7
17	12	Agustin Creamer	Leland	16.0
18	10	Liam McCaw	Maple City Glen Lake	17.0
19	11	Greyson Hoeflinger	Mason County Eastern	19.6
20	11	Parker Rubin	Grand Traverse Academy	20.1
21	10	Cody Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	21.5
22	10	Matthew Bentley	Buckley	22.4
23	9	Evan Keen	Leland	24.4
24	10	Oliver Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	24.9
25	9	Joel Martin	Maple City Glen Lake	27.2
26	9	Aron Mascorro	Walkerville	30.0
27	11	Ron Hasenbank	Mason County Eastern	30.2
28	10	Wyatt Roberts	Pentwater	30.2
29	10	Easton Nowak	Bear Lake-Onekama	31.5
30	10	Jacob Plamondon	Maple City Glen Lake	32.2