2023 Regional Projections: Holly Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#16 Linden
#18 Dearborn Divine Child
#26 Pontiac Notre Dame Prep

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

18^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Dearborn Divine Child	54	1.4	61	95+
2	Linden	56	1.6	39	95+
3	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	80	3.0		95+
4	Detroit Country Day	118	4.0
5	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	158	5.9
6	Pinckney	160	6.2
7	Bloomfield Hills Marian	169	6.9
8	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	177	7.6
9	Lake Fenton	186	8.4
10	Garden City	320	10.0
11	Detroit Cody	362	11.0
12	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	380	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Mea D’Agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	1.6
2	9	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	2.2
3	11	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	3.4
4	11	Chloe Josephson	Linden	3.7
5	12	Kirsten Koss	Dearborn Divine Child	6.5
6	11	Kathryn Kurtinaitis	Dearborn Divine Child	7.6
7	9	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	7.9
8	11	Kayla Slade	Dearborn Divine Child	9.5
9	9	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	9.9
10	10	Anna Kujansuu	Dearborn Divine Child	10.6
11	11	Nell Stover	Detroit Country Day	12.5
12	9	Addison Josephson	Linden	12.6
13	11	Skylar Vanhecke	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	12.9
14	9	Sidney Shepard	Linden	14.6
15	11	Claire Heller	Detroit Country Day	14.7
16	9	Claire Dunn	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	15.3
17	12	Reagan Brooks	Linden	17.4
18	12	Molly O’Brien	Bloomfield Hills Marian	18.9
19	11	Mary Larocca	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	19.3
20	9	Elliana Hufton	Lake Fenton	19.9
21	11	Kate Paluszewski	Dearborn Divine Child	21.4
22	12	Chloe Kurschat	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	22.2
23	12	Ava Fahrenkopf	Linden	23.2
24	11	Madalynn Karsies	Pinckney	24.7
25	10	Elizabeth Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child	26.3
26	9	Georgia Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	26.3
27	11	Jillian Wygonik	Dearborn Divine Child	27.5
28	12	Kaitlyn Hatfield	Lake Fenton	28.8
29	9	Lucille Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	29.9
30	9	Charlotte Hartley	Detroit Country Day	31.9

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#5 Pinckney

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

19th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Pinckney	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Detroit Country Day	103	2.4		95+
3	Dearborn Divine Child	108	2.9		84
4	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	124	4.1		21
5	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	133	4.8
6	Lake Fenton	156	6.2
7	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	169	7.1
8	Linden	177	7.6
9	Redford Union	250	9.0
10	Melvindale	298	10.1
11	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	316	11.1
12	Garden City	325	11.8
13	Detroit Henry Ford	368	13.0
14	Detroit Southeastern Tech	417	14.0
15	Detroit Cody	473	15.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Evan Loughridge	Pinckney	1.3
2	12	Solomon Kwartowitz	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	3.1
3	11	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	3.3
4	12	Nolan Pinion	Lake Fenton	4.5
5	12	Paul Moore	Pinckney	4.6
6	12	Ethan Sandula	Pinckney	5.2
7	11	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	7.9
8	9	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	9.3
9	12	Joshua Simpson	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	9.9
10	12	Arnot Heller	Detroit Country Day	10.0
11	11	Zach Newman	Pinckney	11.6
12	11	Kyle Osborne	Pinckney	12.2
13	12	Parker Hays	Pinckney	12.7
14	11	Isaak Brook	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	13.5
15	12	Ian Martin	Linden	13.7
16	11	Tamer Zahr	Dearborn Divine Child	17.0
17	9	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	17.6
18	12	Eric Shan	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	18.9
19	12	Eamon Kennedy	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	20.2
20	10	Jake Yono	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	20.6
21	9	Cooper Steckroth	Lake Fenton	21.3
22	10	Bela Matyus	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	21.5
23	11	Blaise Gooding	Linden	23.3
24	11	Nicholas Nakic	Dearborn Divine Child	25.7
25	11	Ryan Wojichowski	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	27.3
26	11	Alex Kitsopanidis	Detroit Country Day	27.6
27	11	Jaime Saucedo	Melvindale	27.7
28	12	Krish Kalmadi	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	28.0
29	11	Maximiliano Juarez	Dearborn Divine Child	30.6
30	12	Joshua Sharp-Pelto	Garden City	31.2

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#3 Brighton
#13 Ann Arbor Skyline
#15 Davison
#20 Dexter

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Anywhere from 20^th to 22^nd place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Brighton	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	Ann Arbor Skyline	78	2.4		91
3	Davison	87	2.9		81
4	Dexter	98	3.7		28
5	Grand Blanc	125	5.3
6	Hartland	131	5.7
7	Fenton	171	7.0
8	Lapeer	255	8.5
9	Howell	260	8.8
10	Holly	280	10.0
11	Flushing	296	10.7
12	Swartz Creek	372	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	2.8
2	11	Elle Bissett	Brighton	3.8
3	12	Carrigan Eberly	Brighton	4.0
4	11	Grace Tykocki	Grand Blanc	4.3
5	11	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	5.5
6	12	Allison Mayer	Ann Arbor Skyline	6.1
7	12	Paige McArdle	Davison	7.3
8	9	Ava Goodman	Hartland	9.7
9	12	Nina Frost	Fenton	10.4
10	10	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	10.7
11	9	Becca van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	10.8
12	12	Sydney Smith	Davison	13.8
13	12	Gabrielle Bolitho	Brighton	14.0
14	12	Megan Kowalski	Brighton	14.7
15	10	Nevaeh Polovina	Davison	15.5
16	9	Irie Scrase	Ann Arbor Skyline	16.4
17	11	Addison Bruckman	Dexter	17.7
18	12	Nikki Carothers	Brighton	17.7
19	11	Annabel O’Haver	Dexter	18.8
20	9	Becca vanLent	Ann Arbor Skyline	19.9
21	12	Brooke Lemos	Davison	22.7
22	10	Reese Canada	Fenton	24.2
23	12	Samantha Wogaman	Grand Blanc	25.0
24	11	Ayla Balazer	Ann Arbor Skyline	25.1
25	12	Samantha Shaver	Grand Blanc	25.5
26	9	Kodie Snyder	Dexter	26.2
27	10	Elliana Neuer	Hartland	26.8
28	9	Brooklyn Wiltse	Davison	27.7
29	11	Zoe Howard	Hartland	29.4
30	10	Sarah Albright	Grand Blanc	30.3

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#2 Brighton

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

20^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Brighton	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	Dexter	88	2.3		95+
3	Howell	95	2.8		95+
4	Ann Arbor Skyline	127	4.4
5	Davison	136	4.7
6	Hartland	161	5.8
7	Holly	209	7.3
8	Grand Blanc	230	8.3
9	Flushing	238	8.8
10	Lapeer	256	9.8
11	Fenton	279	11.2
12	Swartz Creek	287	11.7
13	Jackson	358	13.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brandon Anderson	Dexter	2.2
2	12	Tyler Langley	Brighton	3.1
3	12	Luke Suliman	Ann Arbor Skyline	4.2
4	9	Jack MacGregor	Howell	4.3
5	12	Iain Forrest	Davison	4.5
6	12	Luke Campbell	Brighton	4.9
7	11	Brady Millington	Brighton	7.7
8	11	Tyler Brock	Brighton	8.4
9	11	Elijah Forbord	Brighton	10.3
10	11	Tyler Outlaw	Brighton	10.5
11	12	Mason Jett	Ann Arbor Skyline	10.6
12	12	Bode Cooper	Brighton	11.9
13	11	James Latstetter	Flushing	13.7
14	11	Julian Linebaugh	Dexter	15.4
15	11	Jacob Essenmacher	Lapeer	16.5
16	11	Lucas Wood	Howell	17.3
17	11	Caleb Snyder	Dexter	17.4
18	12	Carson Cook	Hartland	18.2
19	11	Drake Wallace	Howell	20.6
20	11	Jacob Huntoon	Fenton	23.2
21	10	Griffin Good	Flushing	25.1
22	11	Maxwell Merrill	Grand Blanc	25.6
23	12	Gavin Smith	Davison	25.7
24	12	Noah DeLand	Howell	26.4
25	12	Liam Hoover	Howell	26.9
26	9	Trevor Murphy	Holly	27.2
27	10	Bruno Cifaldi	Ann Arbor Skyline	27.4
28	11	Elijah Smith	Dexter	28.2
29	11	Scott Smith	Dexter	28.6
30	12	Anthony Maini	Fenton	28.9