2023 Regional Projections: Lake Erie Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#23 Chelsea

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

With essentially four teams battling for two spots, good luck figuring this one out!

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Chelsea	75	1.1	92	95+
2	Tecumseh	99	2.5		85
3	Adrian	110	3.5		45
4	Monroe Jefferson	110	3.5		49
5	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	122	4.4		21
6	Carleton Airport	148	6.0
7	New Boston Huron	181	7.8
8	Grosse Ile	185	8.0
9	Riverview	186	8.2
10	Dundee	256	10.1
11	Milan	270	10.9
12	Ypsilanti	323	12.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	1.9
2	12	Jenna Pilachowski	Monroe Jefferson	2.1
3	11	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	2.6
4	12	Anastee Davis	Adrian	4.0
5	9	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	5.4
6	12	Cecilia Ortega	Carleton Airport	7.2
7	11	Madison Morris	Tecumseh	7.4
8	12	Sparrow Centeno	Southgate Anderson	8.3
9	10	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	8.8
10	11	Courtney Bovair	Carleton Airport	10.2
11	10	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	10.3
12	10	Samantha Bieber	Chelsea	12.2
13	12	Riley Peer	Monroe Jefferson	15.9
14	12	Daniela Hinojos	Riverview	16.7
15	10	Alyssa Korte	Grosse Ile	17.2
16	9	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	17.9
17	12	Erin Stuk	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	18.3
18	11	Kim Miller	Monroe Jefferson	19.4
19	10	Claire Cousineau	Tecumseh	20.3
20	11	Marisa Chuey	Trenton	22.2
21	12	Seren Angus	Chelsea	22.5
22	11	Kaylee Hovey	Dundee	23.2
23	10	Avery Boggs	Riverview	23.3
24	9	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	26.1
25	9	Maya Whelan	Tecumseh	26.2
26	11	Lauren Thompson	Chelsea	26.9
27	10	Avery Faut	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	27.8
28	11	Avery Dent	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	28.3
29	9	London Landini	Tecumseh	29.2
30	9	Leila Morris	Tecumseh	30.0

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#7 Adrian
#22 Chelsea

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Adrian leaving their footprint all over the top-20 leaves many individual spots further back to 21st.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Adrian	36	1.0	95+	95+
2	Chelsea	69	2.0		95+
3	New Boston Huron	100	3.0		95+
4	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	128	4.1
5	Riverview	156	5.1
6	Monroe Jefferson	172	6.1
7	Tecumseh	186	7.0
8	Carleton Airport	196	7.7
9	Dundee	248	9.2
10	Grosse Ile	266	10.0
11	Ypsilanti	289	10.9
12	Milan	326	11.9
13	Summit Academy North	403	13.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Connell Alford	Chelsea	1.0
2	12	Braylon Petty	Adrian	2.4
3	12	Logan Ruffner	Riverview	2.7
4	10	Moises Salazar	Adrian	4.1
5	11	Lucas Kuhn	New Boston Huron	6.2
6	11	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	6.4
7	12	Matthew Canales	Adrian	7.3
8	10	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	10.2
9	12	Abdul Ghennewa	New Boston Huron	10.5
10	12	Hayden Holmes	Riverview	11.6
11	12	Jackson Dell	Chelsea	11.8
12	12	Chase Nyack	Adrian	12.2
13	9	Carter Fenner	Adrian	13.3
14	12	Jackson Nyack	Adrian	14.1
15	10	Beckett Boos	Chelsea	15.0
16	12	Grant Fahle	Tecumseh	16.3
17	9	Silas Skeels	Adrian	17.1
18	10	Linus Helzerman	Chelsea	17.3
19	11	Callum Bell	Carleton Airport	19.6
20	12	Sunishthh Singh	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	20.0
21	12	Luke Bounerba	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	20.8
22	10	Joseph Horn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	24.0
23	9	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	24.6
24	10	William Dobbertin	Carleton Airport	25.6
25	12	Israel Garcia	Riverview	27.9
26	12	William Steinhour	Monroe Jefferson	28.0
27	11	Malaki Muhammud	Ypsilanti	28.9
28	11	Brant Maley	Chelsea	30.8
29	12	Gabriel Natividad	Trenton	31.2
30	10	Matthew Carbajo	Grosse Ile	31.7

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#2 Ann Arbor Pioneer
#7 Saline

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Two dominant teams knock individuals down to 23^rd place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Saline	49	2.0		95+
3	Brownstown Woodhaven	102	3.0		95+
4	Temperance Bedford	165	4.2
5	Allen Park	178	5.4
6	Monroe	181	5.7
7	Wyandotte Roosevelt	193	6.7
8	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	220	8.2
9	Detroit Cass Tech	242	9.0
10	Gibraltar Carlson	259	9.8
11	Dearborn	304	11.1
12	Lincoln Park	359	12.5
13	Belleville	372	13.0
14	Dearborn Edsel Ford	403	13.9
15	Detroit Martin Luther King	430	14.7
16	Dearborn Fordson	466	15.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Rachel Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	12	Lydia Bowman	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.3
3	12	Elaina (Laney) Alig	Saline	4.0
4	12	Payton Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	4.8
5	9	Anyla Robinson	Detroit Cass Tech	4.9
6	12	Natalie Mello	Ann Arbor Pioneer	5.8
7	11	Corynn Gady	Saline	7.5
8	10	Lillian Schlack	Saline	7.9
9	12	Sylvia Sanok Dufallo	Ann Arbor Pioneer	8.6
10	12	Katie Hume	Ann Arbor Pioneer	9.7
11	10	Quincy Behm	Ann Arbor Pioneer	11.5
12	9	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer	12.7
13	9	Iva Ravindra	Temperance Bedford	14.2
14	9	Sophie Roth	Saline	14.2
15	12	Viktoria Bloniarz	Monroe	14.8
16	9	Hope Noal	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.5
17	12	Nancy Gage	Saline	16.9
18	10	Eleanor Grant	Wyandotte Roosevelt	18.7
19	11	Mackenzie Sellenraad	Saline	18.9
20	11	Abby Roth	Saline	19.2
21	12	Batoul Hamka	Dearborn	21.4
22	12	Claire Bireta	Allen Park	21.4
23	10	Sarah Wazne	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	23.5
24	9	Reagan Reaume	Gibraltar Carlson	24.4
25	11	Raelyn McLaughlin	Brownstown Woodhaven	25.9
26	10	Elliana Perugi	Brownstown Woodhaven	26.9
27	12	Lauren Moreno	Wyandotte Roosevelt	28.2
28	10	Anna Coury	Monroe	28.8
29	10	Joslyn Bechtol	Brownstown Woodhaven	30.4
30	11	Anahi Chapa	Allen Park	30.7

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#5 Ann Arbor Pioneer
#20 Saline

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

Weighing out the percentages and last qualifiers between Bedford, AP, Woodhaven advancing, I’m coming out on 21^st place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	27	1.0	95+	95+
2	Saline	50	2.0		95+
3	Temperance Bedford	114	3.8		45
4	Brownstown Woodhaven	115	3.9		35
5	Allen Park	119	4.5		19
6	Monroe	138	5.9
7	Dearborn	219	7.1
8	Wyandotte Roosevelt	237	8.2
9	Gibraltar Carlson	251	8.8
10	Belleville	312	10.3
11	Detroit Cass Tech	324	10.9
12	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	353	12.1
13	Lincoln Park	366	12.7

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.1
2	12	Truman Johnson	Saline	2.3
3	12	Vincent Peterson Sand	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.0
4	12	Eric Overdier	Ann Arbor Pioneer	5.5
5	10	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	5.7
6	12	Andrew Foshag	Monroe	6.7
7	10	Pierce Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	7.9
8	9	Jacob Szalay	Saline	8.9
9	10	Brennan LaRusso	Saline	9.0
10	12	Caleb Wynn	Allen Park	10.2
11	10	Alex Vazquez	Brownstown Woodhaven	12.9
12	10	Theo Sacks-Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer	13.6
13	10	Dane Hieronimus	Temperance Bedford	13.8
14	11	Brady Boroniec	Allen Park	13.9
15	11	Saman Meshinchi	Saline	14.2
16	12	Patrick Donoghue	Ann Arbor Pioneer	15.0
17	12	Koen Lanker	Saline	16.4
18	12	Grayson Albers	Ypsilanti Lincoln	18.3
19	12	Evan Smith	Brownstown Woodhaven	20.4
20	12	Joey Stevenson	Ann Arbor Pioneer	20.9
21	9	John (Jack) Klein	Saline	21.1
22	11	Myles Bray	Monroe	21.6
23	9	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	22.2
24	11	William Rosales	Saline	24.8
25	12	Matthew Mizzi	Allen Park	26.4
26	11	Jordan Bunce	Temperance Bedford	27.3
27	11	Reggie Geftos	Monroe	28.4
28	11	Aidan Ortiz	Temperance Bedford	28.9
29	12	Ethan Johnson	Wyandotte Roosevelt	31.1
30	10	Nicholas Balla	Temperance Bedford	31.5