2023 Regional Projections: South Christian Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#4 East Grand Rapids
#17 Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg
#21 Forest Hills Eastern
#24 Grand Rapids South Christian

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	East Grand Rapids	42	1.0	95+	95+
2	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	92	2.2		95+
3	Forest Hills Eastern	106	3.3		63
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	108	3.5		41
5	GR West Michigan Aviation	136	4.9
6	Richland Gull Lake	195	6.6
7	Marshall	207	7.6
8	Hopkins	214	8.0
9	Battle Creek Harper Creek	218	8.2
10	Belding	239	9.6
11	Portland	272	11.0
12	Hastings	339	12.0
13	Wayland Union	397	13.2
14	Lake Odessa Lakewood	412	13.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Drew Muller	East Grand Rapids	1.0
2	11	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	2.0
3	12	Addison Washler	Forest Hills Eastern	4.7
4	11	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	5.1
5	12	Emma DeVries	GR West Michigan Aviation	5.3
6	12	Camille DeCola	Marshall	5.7
7	9	Caroline Randall	Hastings	6.4
8	9	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	7.5
9	12	Ellia Agar	Grand Rapids South Christian	7.8
10	10	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	11.5
11	9	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	12.2
12	10	Madelyn Baar	East Grand Rapids	12.5
13	9	Ainsley Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	14.5
14	12	Jaeden Harshberger	Hopkins	16.1
15	9	Meghan-Jane Skidmore	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	19.3
16	12	Emma Monroe	Battle Creek Harper Creek	19.4
17	9	Ellie Harmon	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	19.7
18	10	Rory Workman	East Grand Rapids	20.5
19	11	Desiree Duque-Rico	GR West Michigan Aviation	20.9
20	11	Avery Wezensky	Portland	21.0
21	11	Rachel Berkenpas	Grand Rapids South Christian	23.2
22	10	Catherine Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	23.6
23	10	Madison Kietzman	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	24.6
24	9	Peyton Hardy	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	25.5
25	10	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.5
26	11	Kambria Moored	Hopkins	26.8
27	11	Mackenzie Zahm	Belding	27.3
28	12	Riley VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	28.1
29	10	Leah McPartlin	Marshall	28.6
30	11	Quincy Stiffler	East Grand Rapids	30.0

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#1 Forest Hills Eastern
#4 East Grand Rapids
#8 Marshall

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

You throw three top-8 teams in a region and you get a potential 23^rd place qualifier.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Forest Hills Eastern	39	1.0	95+	95+
2	East Grand Rapids	51	2.0		95+
3	Marshall	84	3.0		95+
4	Battle Creek Harper Creek	158	4.1
5	Hastings	191	5.5
6	Grand Rapids South Christian	194	5.7
7	Wayland Union	221	8.0
8	Richland Gull Lake	223	8.1
9	GR West Michigan Aviation	226	8.4
10	Ionia	235	9.2
11	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	302	11.3
12	Belding	326	12.3
13	Portland	330	12.6
14	Hopkins	356	13.9
15	Lake Odessa Lakewood	421	15.2
16	Battle Creek Pennfield	437	15.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Alex Thole	East Grand Rapids	1.4
2	11	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	1.9
3	11	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	3.7
4	12	Brendan Hoving	Forest Hills Eastern	4.9
5	10	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	5.8
6	12	Liam Hinman	Forest Hills Eastern	6.0
7	12	Ryan Brinker	East Grand Rapids	6.4
8	11	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	6.9
9	12	Cooper Jacobsen	Forest Hills Eastern	9.3
10	12	Connor Griffith	Marshall	9.5
11	12	Jacob Montgomery	Ionia	11.6
12	12	Lucas Van Meter	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	14.2
13	11	Reece Davis	Marshall	15.1
14	12	Tate Miller	Forest Hills Eastern	15.9
15	10	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	16.1
16	12	William O’Dell	Battle Creek Harper Creek	16.5
17	10	Gavin Markucki	Richland Gull Lake	17.6
18	9	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	18.7
19	11	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	18.7
20	12	Davis Christy	East Grand Rapids	21.9
21	12	Luke Ueland	Forest Hills Eastern	22.0
22	11	Tyler Endres	Forest Hills Eastern	22.7
23	12	Riley Shults	Hastings	22.9
24	11	Brandon Simmons	Hastings	23.1
25	10	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding	24.9
26	12	Isaac Dyer	Wayland Union	25.4
27	10	Thad VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	27.2
28	10	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	28.9
29	10	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	28.9
30	10	Finn Tauren	Richland Gull Lake	29.1