2023 Regional Projections – Willow Regional

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#14 Monroe St. Mary CC
#15 Clinton
#19 Grass Lake
#20 Ann Arbor Greenhills
#24 Blissfield

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Monroe St. Mary CC	65	1.6	56	95+
2	Clinton	67	1.8	35	95+
3	Grass Lake	81	3.3		61
4	Ann Arbor Greenhills	85	3.7	6	35
5	Blissfield	92	4.6		6
6	Ida	174	6.4
7	Erie Mason	177	6.6
8	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	207	8.2
9	Manchester	219	8.8
10	Detroit Cristo Rey	306	10.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	1.0
2	10	Hope Miller	Blissfield	2.7
3	10	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	3.1
4	12	Cylee Elkins	Clinton	3.9
5	11	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock	4.8
6	12	Allison Bowles	Clinton	6.4
7	10	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	8.0
8	9	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	8.2
9	12	Anika Bery	Ann Arbor Greenhills	11.2
10	12	Ava Viegelahn	Grass Lake	12.2
11	12	Samantha LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	12.7
12	12	Katelyn Bydlowski	Ida	12.9
13	12	Samantha Coots	Clinton	13.5
14	9	Adeline Stormont	Grass Lake	15.1
15	11	Grace Bullock	Grass Lake	15.1
16	11	Claire Lisker	Monroe St. Mary CC	16.0
17	12	June Miller	Blissfield	17.5
18	10	Julia Hughes	Ida	18.0
19	9	Juleigh Husby	Monroe St. Mary CC	18.3
20	9	Elise Bullock	Grass Lake	19.7
21	11	Bailey Meiring	Erie Mason	20.1
22	10	Aurelia Bennett	Clinton	22.9
23	12	Lydia Bennett	Manchester	23.5
24	10	Leona Knudsen	Monroe St. Mary CC	23.9
25	12	Vic Cunningham	Ann Arbor Greenhills	24.5
26	9	Braelynn Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	26.1
27	12	Ava Kittendorf	Ann Arbor Greenhills	27.9
28	12	Navya Ashok	Ann Arbor Greenhills	29.2
29	11	Sarah King	Clinton	30.3
30	9	Kayle Babowicz	Flat Rock	30.9

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#18 Flat Rock
#20 Clinton
#23 Ann Arbor Greenhills

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Flat Rock	82	1.2	77	95+
2	Clinton	92	2.4	12	91
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	94	2.6	11	87
4	Monroe St. Mary CC	107	3.9		21
5	Erie Mason	126	5.1
6	Grass Lake	139	5.8
7	Manchester	176	7.3
8	Blissfield	184	7.9
9	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	198	8.9
10	Ida	245	10.0
11	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	268	11.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Keegan Masters	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	1.2
2	10	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	1.8
3	10	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	3.2
4	11	Nathan Vargo	Flat Rock	4.3
5	9	Cole Hillegonds	Clinton	6.2
6	12	Lincoln Cha	Ann Arbor Greenhills	7.1
7	10	Grant Johnson	Manchester	7.6
8	11	Ian Waddell	Blissfield	8.8
9	12	Lucas Goodman	Clinton	10.5
10	11	Gabe Manchester	Clinton	10.7
11	11	Parker Campbell	Erie Mason	12.7
12	11	Austin Sulier	Erie Mason	12.7
13	11	Mason Stranahan	Ann Arbor Greenhills	12.7
14	10	Max Foldvary	Monroe St. Mary CC	13.5
15	12	Simon VanderVlucht	Monroe St. Mary CC	14.1
16	12	Dylan Tengler	Ida	14.4
17	10	Henry Beck	Ann Arbor Greenhills	14.6
18	9	Zack Buttigieg	Grass Lake	18.4
19	12	Hunter Anderson	Manchester	20.3
20	12	William Marks	Blissfield	22.0
21	12	Zach Kahn	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	22.3
22	10	Henry Wickenheiser	Monroe St. Mary CC	22.9
23	11	Eric Ramsey	Clinton	23.3
24	10	Alex Holda	Grass Lake	26.0
25	10	Jackson Carner	Erie Mason	27.0
26	10	Nico Aagesen	Ann Arbor Greenhills	27.5
27	9	Domingo Decoster-Elizondo	Grass Lake	28.9
28	10	Luke Stanley	Ida	29.4
29	11	Kevin Roberts	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	30.7
30	11	Caleb Totten	Monroe St. Mary CC	31.2

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#6 Northville
#25 Livonia Franklin

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

With 5(!) teams in contention for the 3^rd spot, your guess is as good as mine.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Northville	47	1.0	95+	95+
2	Livonia Franklin	108	2.3		95+
3	Salem	133	4.3		30
4	Farmington	133	4.3		33
5	Livonia Churchill	140	5.3		14
6	Livonia Stevenson	142	5.4		14
7	Ann Arbor Huron	145	5.7		13
8	Canton	165	7.8
9	Plymouth	234	9.4
10	Farmington Hills Mercy	240	9.7
11	Oak Park	282	11.3
12	Detroit Renaissance	292	11.7
13	Wayne Memorial	384	13.1
14	Westland John Glenn	434	13.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Cassie Garcia	Northville	1.8
2	12	Morgan Brown	Livonia Churchill	2.2
3	12	Ella Christensen	Northville	2.2
4	12	Layla Krayem	Livonia Stevenson	4.0
5	11	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	5.5
6	11	Molly Baracco	Farmington	7.8
7	11	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	10.5
8	10	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	10.7
9	9	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	10.7
10	10	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill	11.1
11	11	Catherine Steele	Farmington	11.6
12	10	Molly Kate Coates	Northville	11.7
13	9	Colette Lozo	Northville	12.0
14	12	Emerson Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	12.3
15	11	Lucinda Paliani	Ann Arbor Huron	13.6
16	12	Sonya Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	15.8
17	12	Kylee King	Oak Park	17.9
18	10	McKinnon Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	18.0
19	10	Annabelle Beloiu	Northville	21.8
20	11	Rosie Gregory	Northville	21.9
21	10	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	23.7
22	12	Nora Schley	Canton	24.0
23	9	Julie Schuessler	Livonia Churchill	24.4
24	12	Lily Hetzel	Salem	24.8
25	12	Aliya Kurian	Plymouth	25.1
26	11	Elaina Braunscheidel	Livonia Stevenson	27.1
27	10	Rebecca Jud	Salem	28.1
28	12	Lily Connors	Northville	28.5
29	11	Lauren Bickerdt	Detroit Renaissance	29.1
30	9	Katelyn Parrish	Farmington	29.9

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#1 Northville
#4 Canton
#15 Livonia Churchill
#24 Plymouth

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

23^rd or 24^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Northville	31	1.0	95+	95+
2	Canton	50	2.0		95+
3	Livonia Churchill	82	3.1		90
4	Plymouth	99	3.9		10
5	Ann Arbor Huron	150	5.5
6	Salem	154	5.6
7	Detroit U-D Jesuit	199	7.1
8	Livonia Stevenson	218	7.9
9	Farmington	277	9.1
10	Livonia Franklin	302	9.9
11	Detroit Renaissance	323	10.9
12	Wayne Memorial	391	12.0
13	Westland John Glenn	413	13.1
14	Oak Park	426	13.9
15	Ferndale	460	15.2
16	Detroit Mumford	471	15.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Brendan Herger	Northville	1.1
2	11	Ethan Powell	Northville	1.9
3	12	Mitchell Clark	Canton	4.5
4	10	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	4.5
5	10	Benjamin Hartigan	Northville	6.2
6	12	Ian Lewis	Livonia Churchill	8.0
7	11	Malcolm Spiegle	Livonia Churchill	8.4
8	12	Anirudh Krishnan	Plymouth	8.7
9	11	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	9.8
10	11	Logan Mullan	Detroit U-D Jesuit	10.7
11	11	Nick Barretto	Northville	11.0
12	11	Adam Dicken	Canton	11.2
13	11	Clark Madden	Canton	14.8
14	12	Nicholas Yaquinto	Northville	15.6
15	9	Brandon Cloud	Northville	16.6
16	11	Joseph Rohmfeld	Livonia Churchill	17.0
17	10	Steven Dusseau	Canton	17.6
18	12	Brandon Blandino	Canton	18.6
19	11	Ben Mussen	Plymouth	18.9
20	12	Joey Seale	Salem	19.4
21	11	Chase Wolters	Livonia Churchill	19.5
22	11	Cole Triffle	Canton	20.3
23	11	Jonah Kraft	Ann Arbor Huron	22.8
24	11	Walker Brose	Ann Arbor Huron	23.7
25	11	Ishaan Kundapur	Northville	25.6
26	12	Alex Eplin	Livonia Stevenson	26.7
27	10	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth	27.2
28	10	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill	29.4
29	12	Lucas Weintraub	Ann Arbor Huron	30.5
30	12	Mitchell Robillard	Salem	31.5