Division 3 State Finals Projections

WEEK THREE
WEEK FOUR
CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON
COUNTY WEEK
LEAGUE WEEK
REGIONAL WEEK

This year’s version of the State Projections and Previews will be lighter on the writing than the previous ones. There’s a reason that I wrote so much for the rankings throughout the year, hopefully you can refer back to those for the backstories on the teams and individuals.

This year, just as the regionals were last week and projections were last year, I worked with the simulations. I liked my regional write-up for that, here’s one for example if you’d like to read. For the State version, I ran through 10x more simulations. Which really doesn’t sound like much, but when you graduate from 1,000 simulations to 10,000, that’s a significant jump. And given that the projected state qualifying teams were higher than ever, perhaps we’re onto something.

Girls Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

This is something new. I’ve always had odds for winning or placing, but I never thought to give odds for each place. Hopefully this will better show the range of places for each team and better elucidate teams that are more consistent and those who have a slight propensity for the chance at a major day.

Place and Score by Runner

Analysis

The Division 4 Preview had a little look into whether the Fastest Fifth Theory is true. Essentially, the idea goes that if you have the first fifth finisher, you have the best chance at winning a State Meet. I’ve had it told to me that every D1 girls winner at MIS has had the fastest fifth in the field, I wondered if that was the case for all divisions. This is only going back to 2019, with the technology these days, it’s a quick look. Prior to 2019, it’s a slower look, but definitely ripe for off-season inspection.

What I can glean from this data is that having the first fifth finisher is important, but not 100% necessary to win. If you have four elite runners such as Hart’s girls from 2019-2021 or Otsego’s girls last year, you can build up enough of a gap to overcome a pack finishing before your final scorer. If you don’t have those elite four, your 5th runner better be within 20 seconds of the fastest 5th in the field, or else you’re accumulating too many points in a hurry.

For Division 3’s girls, there’s five teams that could come in before anyone else: Lumen Christi, Traverse City St. Francis, GR Covenant Christian, and Elk Rapids. With that said, the race may be won by firepower up front. Each team has a potential All-Stater, some have two, some even have three. As the race unfolds, I might look more at who is coming in early, as each of these teams have the depth late.

Another one of my theories, one that’s completely untested and I’m not even sure how I’d research, is that teams that move up throughout the race tend to do better in big race environments. Maybe I’m influenced by the MSU Women, who have won consecutive Big Ten titles using this strategy. But it makes sense, in that teams that are fading are giving away places and teams that are moving up are usually running even/negative splits and catching people. My assumption is that teams that score lower and lower points with each mile are less apt to get too excited and amped up in the moment.

Spartan
Holly
Bluejay
Portage

There have been some common races between the bunch. At Shepherd, the only team missing was Lumen Christi. At Portage, the only team missing was Elk Rapids. Lumen Christi won Portage by placing all five girls in the top-30, St. Francis won at Bluejay with the same array of places. The Elk girls mastered moving up throughout the Bluejay race, scoring 140 at the mile and 92 at the finish. If conditions favor heavy amounts of places being exchanged late, don’t be shocked if the ER girls move into the top-3.

Girls Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jessica Jazwinski	Hart	1.1
2	12	Madison Osterberg	Jackson Lumen Christi	2.3
3	11	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.4
4	11	Emmry Ross	Onsted	3.9
5	11	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	6.3
6	12	Tessa Roe	Lansing Catholic	6.7
7	11	Lila Volkers	Kent City	7.3
8	12	Mylie Kelly	Benzie Central	7.9
9	11	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	8.7
10	12	Miranda McNeil	Morley-Stanwood	8.7
11	9	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	12.9
12	12	Amber Koole	GR Covenant Christian	13.0
13	11	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.0
14	9	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	16.2
15	12	Jenna Sweeney	Reese	19.8
16	11	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	21.9
17	10	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	23.9
18	12	Liliana Lehnst	Ithaca	24.1
19	12	Kinsie Jacques	Pinconning	25.2
20	12	Olivia Perrine	Hanover-Horton	25.4
21	11	Kaya Vrable	Caro	25.7
22	9	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	27.1
23	10	Hope Miller	Blissfield	27.2
24	10	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	27.9
25	9	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	28.0
26	12	Cylee Elkins	Clinton	28.5
27	9	Shelby Kuiper	GR Covenant Christian	28.6
28	12	Isabella Max	Kent City	29.1
29	12	Jaiden Dickman	St. Louis	30.0
30	10	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	30.1
31	12	Cecilia Postma	Manistee	31.1
32	12	Avelina Hollandsworth	Remus Chippewa Hills	32.3
33	11	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	32.5
34	12	Gracie Houtman	Kent City	34.9
35	10	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	36.2
36	11	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	36.2
37	10	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	36.8
38	11	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	38.3
39	11	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	38.7
40	12	Paige Herron	Caro	38.8
41	9	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	39.0
42	11	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock	42.3
43	10	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	47.5
44	12	Allison Bowles	Clinton	48.1
45	12	Sophia Reynolds	Hanover-Horton	49.5
46	10	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	49.6
47	12	Claire Neumann	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	49.9
48	11	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	50.2
49	12	Maddie Gallagher	Traverse City St. Francis	50.2
50	11	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	51.3
51	10	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	54.5
52	11	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	54.7
53	11	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	55.2
54	9	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	57.9
55	9	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	58.7
56	9	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	59.1
57	9	Lydia Soelberg	Shelby	61.4
58	10	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	61.6
59	12	Abbie Wiegers	North Muskegon	63.1
60	11	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	63.5
61	10	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	63.7
62	9	Alli Gautsche	Union City	64.9
63	9	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	64.9
64	12	Angel Miller	Parchment	65.0
65	12	Melanie Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	65.6
66	11	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	67.3
67	12	Nidia Martinez	Fennville	70.6
68	9	Pyper Braun	EPBP Laker	71.2
69	12	Sydney Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	72.3
70	10	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	74.3
71	10	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	75.8
72	11	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	77.6
73	12	Tessa Wohlschlegel	Beaverton	78.5
74	10	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	78.8
75	9	Lydia Minderhoud	GR Covenant Christian	78.9
76	11	Emma Miller	Buchanan	81.0
77	10	Anna Poppema	Bath	81.4
78	12	Emily Anger	Mancelona	82.3
79	12	Faith Swenor	Caro	83.4
80	12	Lindsay Minderhoud	GR Covenant Christian	84.5
81	12	Jaida Schulte	Elk Rapids	84.9
82	9	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	85.0
83	10	Sarah Trojanowski	Traverse City St. Francis	85.7
84	9	Anna DeVries	GR Covenant Christian	87.7
85	12	Morgan Lowell	Watervliet	88.0
86	11	Hannah Geaney	Wyoming Potter’s House	88.4
87	9	Marnath Tuol	Grandville Calvin Christian	88.6
88	12	Eva Pray	Elk Rapids	90.0
89	10	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	93.6
90	10	Delaney Little	Boyne City	94.3
91	12	Olivea Gessner	Olivet	95.1
92	11	Clara Fast	Bridgman	95.2
93	9	Natalie Rosema	Hart	95.3
94	9	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia	96.1
95	11	Madeline Young	Buchanan	96.7
96	11	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	97.3
97	12	Rachael Walch	Caro	97.6
98	12	Samantha Coots	Clinton	98.0
99	12	Anika Bery	Ann Arbor Greenhills	98.2
100	11	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	99.3

Jessica Jazwinski is clearly the favorite coming in here and for good reason, when she’s on her game, she races with extreme toughness. The problem for others in that previous sentence is that she’s almost always on her game, especially at the longer distances. She’s rattled off low-17 efforts each time this year when put to the test – whether that’s Bluejay, Cougar Falcon, or at Chippewa Hills.

There seem to be three that have separated themselves beyond Jazwinski. Madison Osterberg has added strength to her impressive mid-distance resume. The D3 winner in the 1600m, she’s taken where she left off from last year’s MITCA race and has raced to a multitude of sub-18’s. She’s done it on fast courses and in the mud at Hudson Mills. Emmry Ross (your defending D3 400/800m champ) had some mid-season battles with Osterberg and Kaylie Livingston, pushing to a 17:29 personal best at Stockbridge. Kyah Hoffman has lost when facing Osterberg or Ross, but has the most consistency of the bunch, dipping below 18:00 on occasion and hitting the equivalent of low-18 marks each time out.

Boys Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Place and Score by Runner

Analysis

Traverse City St. Francis is clearly the favorite. The Gladiators have it all, the GladPack in the middle, low sticks up front. They won by significant margins at the mid-season, state preview meets such as Bluejay or Portage, scoring seven boys before many teams’ 4^th or even 3^rd.

What’s wide open is the race for the other podium spot, the other trophy. Reed City may have languished behind some of these folks at Bluejay and may have the weakest depth, but the Yotes collectively had the best race of their season at Region 20, adding up to only 20 points while bringing all five boys home before 18-flat. Covenant Christian and Pewamo-Westphalia have more depth than Reed City and have shown the ability to pass in droves late. And Hanover-Horton has the tradition of always outperforming these numbers. The Comets are projected 5^th here, that’s almost a guarantee they’ll be at least 3^rd.

Boys Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Robert Jazwinski III	Hart	1.9
2	12	Collin Farmer	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.5
3	11	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.5
4	12	Ben March	St. Louis	7.8
5	12	Samuel Martini	Kent City	9.5
6	12	Keegan Masters	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	9.8
7	10	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	10.0
8	12	Brad White	Clare	10.4
9	11	Mitchell Hiatt	Onsted	11.1
10	11	August Rohde	Reed City	11.8
11	11	Theodore Davis	Dansville	12.2
12	12	Jackson Rodriguez	Wyoming Potter’s House	12.5
13	12	Boden Genovese	Coloma	13.3
14	11	Leo Swager	Traverse City St. Francis	14.3
15	10	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	15.4
16	11	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	15.4
17	12	Anthony Kiaunis	Reed City	16.6
18	12	Lucas Hopkins	Olivet	18.9
19	11	Levi Kamps	GR Covenant Christian	21.2
20	12	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	22.1
21	11	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	23.0
22	12	Ryan Allen	Reed City	23.8
23	12	Gavin Guggemos	Kalkaska	24.4
24	12	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	24.6
25	10	Landen Styka	Ithaca	24.7
26	11	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian	27.4
27	11	Landen Boulis	Hanover-Horton	28.2
28	9	Graeson Decker	GR Covenant Christian	29.5
29	11	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	31.1
30	12	Evan Shepherd	Hanover-Horton	33.0
31	12	Gavin VanKampen	Jonesville	35.0
32	11	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	38.0
33	10	Ben Gautsche	Union City	38.9
34	12	Brodie Delamater	Grant	39.9
35	12	Tucker Krumm	Traverse City St. Francis	40.3
36	12	Nolan Grant	Hillsdale	41.9
37	12	Nathan Day	Saranac	42.3
38	12	Carter Holmes	Bath	43.6
39	12	Gannon Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	43.6
40	10	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	44.8
41	9	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	45.7
42	9	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	46.6
43	11	Nathan Vargo	Flat Rock	46.9
44	12	Trevor Dornbos	Grandville Calvin Christian	47.0
45	10	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	47.7
46	12	Andrew Klaus	Clare	48.6
47	10	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	49.2
48	11	Owen Read	Traverse City St. Francis	49.7
49	11	Robby Myler	Traverse City St. Francis	51.1
50	10	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	52.0
51	12	Alex Czeiszperger	Hudson	55.3
52	11	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	56.2
53	12	Bailey Wiggins	Midland Bullock Creek	56.8
54	10	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	59.4
55	12	Ezra Hagedorn	Wyoming Potter’s House	61.0
56	9	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	61.2
57	11	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	61.7
58	11	Luke Dykstra	GR Covenant Christian	62.4
59	9	Cole Hillegonds	Clinton	62.8
60	9	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	62.8
61	11	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	64.7
62	11	Cade Truemner	EPBP Laker	64.7
63	11	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca	64.8
64	11	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek	65.6
65	12	Drew Moore	Grayling	67.2
66	11	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	67.6
67	12	Hunter Helminski	Saranac	69.3
68	12	Anthony Urbaniak	Charyl Stockwell Academy	70.9
69	12	Conner Fountain	Olivet	72.5
70	10	Grant Johnson	Manchester	72.8
71	12	Lincoln Cha	Ann Arbor Greenhills	73.7
72	11	Tristan Demlow	Grayling	73.9
73	9	Luke Herron	Caro	74.1
74	10	Julian Walker	Algonac	75.8
75	11	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	77.4
76	12	Nic Porter	Clare	78.6
77	10	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	79.9
78	10	John Edler	Homer	80.0
79	11	Ian Waddell	Blissfield	80.5
80	11	Luke Skidmore	Bath	81.4
81	10	Zach Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	84.7
82	9	River Fox	Bath	86.9
83	12	Andrew Koenigsknecht	Bath	87.2
84	11	Clay Powell	Ovid-Elsie	88.0
85	11	Gabe Manchester	Clinton	88.7
86	11	Austin Sulier	Erie Mason	90.5
87	11	Sam Muirhead	Pewamo-Westphalia	90.8
88	10	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	92.8
89	12	Grant Koole	GR Covenant Christian	93.5
90	9	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	93.6
91	12	Lucas Goodman	Clinton	94.4
92	10	Jack Slotman	Hart	97.1
93	11	Parker Campbell	Erie Mason	97.2
94	10	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	97.4
95	10	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	102.1
96	11	Max Stitt	Hart	102.4
97	12	Adam Williams	Kalkaska	102.9
98	12	Owen Brown	Hanover-Horton	103.3
99	12	Tanner Soelberg	Shelby	104.2
100	12	Noah Finton	Wyoming Potter’s House	105.1

When June came and passed, I (and maybe many) wondered if there’d ever be another Hunter Jones. Well, we didn’t have to wait long for the answer, as Bobby Jazwinski is putting up the same kind of numbers that Hunter did as a freshman. Opening with a 15:48 at Benzie, continuing to multiple 15:3x efforts and even faster. Of course, when anyone freshman bursts onto the scene, there are seniors looking to hold them off, and Collin Farmer has done the best of the bunch. Head-to-head, Farmer has won, with a narrow victory at Bluejay, then a significant margin at Portage. This begs the question that the ratings attempt to capture: were those two matchups an example of the differing speeds of the two or was it a combination of Jazwinski having poor races/Farmer having great races? We’ll find out on Saturday.