Division 4 State Finals Projections

WEEK THREE
WEEK FOUR
CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON
COUNTY WEEK
LEAGUE WEEK
REGIONAL WEEK

This year’s version of the State Projections and Previews will be lighter on the writing than the previous ones. There’s a reason that I wrote so much for the rankings throughout the year, hopefully you can refer back to those for the backstories on the teams and individuals.

This year, just as the regionals were last week and projections were last year, I worked with the simulations. I liked my regional write-up for that, here’s one for example if you’d like to read. For the State version, I ran through 10x more simulations. Which really doesn’t sound like much, but when you graduate from 1,000 simulations to 10,000, that’s a significant jump. And given that the projected state qualifying teams were higher than ever, perhaps we’re onto something.

Girls Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

This is something new. I’ve always had odds for winning or placing, but I never thought to give odds for each place. Hopefully this will better show the range of places for each team and better elucidate teams that are more consistent and those who have a slight propensity for the chance at a major day.

Place and Score by Runner

Analysis

Many charts and sheets, here’s the last one:

A little look into whether the Fastest Fifth Theory is true. Essentially, the idea goes that if you have the first fifth finisher, you have the best chance at winning a State Meet. I’ve had it told to me that every D1 girls winner at MIS has had the fastest fifth in the field, I wondered if that was the case for all divisions. This is only going back to 2019, with the technology these days, it’s a quick look. Prior to 2019, it’s a slower look, but definitely ripe for off-season inspection.

What I can glean from this data is that having the first fifth finisher is important, but not 100% necessary to win. If you have four elite runners such as Hart’s girls from 2019-2021 or Otsego’s girls last year, you can build up enough of a gap to overcome a pack finishing before your final scorer. If you don’t have those elite four, your 5^th runner better be within 20 seconds of the fastest 5^th in the field, or else you’re accumulating too many points in a hurry.

This fall, it appears that Whitmore Lake won’t have the first fifth runner in the field, that might apply to Western Mich. Christian. In the same range also is Johannesburg-Lewiston, their final scorers projected within 11 points of one another. The three teams faced off at Portage, with Johannesburg taking home a trophy, placing four girls in the top-14, putting forth enough of a gap to weather the WMC pack. Whitmore Lake was a bit behind J-L, there with WMC through four, but their final scorer finished a minute back of where she’s been crossing the line these past few weeks.

Each team has an argument:

Whitmore Lake – the improved racing of their 3^rd-5^th girls (Meadows, Robertson, Weaver) over the past few weeks.
Johannesburg-Lewiston – the defending champs, can’t discount championship experience.
Western Mich. Christian – the ability to throw five in front of your four, six in front of your five.

Another one of my theories, one that’s completely untested and I’m not even sure how I’d research, is that teams that move up throughout the race tend to do better in big race environments. Maybe I’m influenced by the MSU Women, who have won consecutive Big Ten titles using this strategy. But it makes sense, in that teams that are fading are giving away places and teams that are moving up are usually running even/negative splits and catching people. My assumption is that teams that score lower and lower points with each mile are less apt to get too excited and amped up in the moment.

Spartan
Holly
Bluejay
Portage

At Portage, teams such as J-L and WMC moved up throughout the race, as did Hillsdale Academy and Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart. Perhaps the latter two are sleepers to run above their pay grade?

Girls Individual Projections

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Average Place
1	9	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake	1.4
2	12	Aiden Harrand	Buckley	1.8
3	11	Grace VanderKooi	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	3.1
4	12	Ava Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	5.0
5	11	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	5.1
6	9	Libby Smith	Gobles	6.6
7	10	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	7.1
8	11	Izzy Brooks	Adrian Lenawee Christian	8.1
9	11	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	10.2
10	11	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	11.6
11	12	Brooke Smith	Pittsford	13.7
12	9	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	14.2
13	11	Ella Knudsen	Leland	15.4
14	12	Miriam Murrell	Gaylord St. Mary	15.8
15	10	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	16.1
16	9	Veyda Conley	Martin	20.3
17	10	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	20.4
18	11	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	20.9
19	12	Natalie Meadows	Whitmore Lake	22.4
20	12	Madalyn Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	23.7
21	9	Harlie Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	23.7
22	9	Haley Stimer	Concord	24.9
23	12	Allison Glendening	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	25.1
24	9	Ava DeYoung	Gobles	26.9
25	12	Isabella Yeoman	Genesee	27.5
26	11	Abigail Davis	Vestaburg	27.6
27	10	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	31.4
28	9	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles	32.3
29	9	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	32.6
30	10	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	34.7
31	11	Presley Allen	Mendon	36.3
32	12	Eleanor Kingshott	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	36.6
33	9	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	36.8
34	10	Yolanda Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	37.3
35	9	Anna Sheppard	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	38.1
36	9	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	39.9
37	12	Grace Folkema	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	40.1
38	9	Avery Langlois	Rogers City	41.9
39	11	Ella Walton	Hillsdale Academy	42.6
40	11	Stephanie Hernandez	Addison	44.5
41	12	Lily Lemanski	Marlette	46.3
42	10	Ruth Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	46.3
43	9	Addy Zeller	Bear Lake-Onekama	46.4
44	11	Ava Mallar	Pittsford	47.3
45	9	Nolee Leppert	Beal City	48.3
46	10	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	48.6
47	12	Jacqueline Morton	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	49.0
48	10	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran HS Westland	50.2
49	11	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	50.7
50	10	Cieara Barrett	Concord	51.3
51	9	Gabriella Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	53.1
52	9	Kaylie Riksen	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	53.3
53	11	Riley McCumber	Pittsford	55.0
54	10	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	56.4
55	12	Leah Zarrilli	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	57.0
56	12	Alberta Reinbold	Unionville-Sebewaing	58.0
57	11	Danica Aldrich	Breckenridge	60.4
58	12	Ellayna Meredith	Portland St. Patrick	61.4
59	10	Brooklynn Frazee	Buckley	62.5
60	10	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	64.1
61	9	Elizabeth Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes	65.5
62	11	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	67.2
63	12	Gracy Walker	Kingston	67.9
64	11	Reece Wruble	Harbor Beach	69.7
65	10	Kinsey Peer	Buckley	70.0
66	9	Claire Long	Saginaw Nouvel	71.0
67	10	Rowan Allen	Mendon	71.6
68	11	Caroline Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	72.5
69	10	Lauren Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	73.9
70	9	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	76.9
71	9	Adrienne Mitchell	Lansing Christian	77.0
72	10	Abby Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	78.1
73	10	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	78.7
74	10	Madison Cooley	Gobles	78.7
75	12	Anna McQueary	Saugatuck	79.4
76	12	Paige Bell	Grand Traverse Academy	79.8
77	12	Andrea Feldpausch	White Cloud	80.3
78	10	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	80.8
79	11	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-unity Christian	81.2
80	9	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	82.3
81	9	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	87.2
82	11	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	88.1
83	11	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	88.8
84	10	Addison Chownyk	Frankfort	89.8
85	11	Aubrey Appleman	Britton Deerfield	90.2
86	9	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley	90.8
87	11	Kyra Beemer	Brown City	92.3
88	11	Julia Rogers	Kimball New Life Christian	93.1
89	11	Sarah Goodwin	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	94.6
90	11	Leilani Schoonmaker	Saugatuck	95.5
91	12	Zoe Van Rijn	Kingston	95.7
92	9	Natalie Burpee	Leland	96.5
93	11	Nataly Vine	Breckenridge	96.6
94	9	Allie Miller	Hillsdale Academy	97.9
95	10	Cara Prusakiewicz	Dryden	98.4
96	10	Shenoah Collier	Grand Traverse Academy	99.9
97	11	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	100.6
98	12	Abby Kunkle	Libertas Christian	101.5
99	11	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	102.2
100	11	Meeghan Flikkie	Kingston	102.3

The one race between these two wasn’t particularly close, with Kaylie Livingston sticking to her guns, asserting her presence early and never letting up. The issue with doing these ratings for an entire season is that experienced seniors know when to pick and choose their battles. My guess is that Aiden Harrand has truly gone all-out a few times this year, once at Portage, then also at Shepherd and Benzie. Her times and ratings from those two meets lead me to believe that she’ll give Kaylie everything she can handle. And from there it can go either way. This will likely be one of the closer individual races on the day, so get out to the Speedway early.

Boys Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Place and Score by Runner

Analysis

Judging by the fastest five and moving up through the race, along with their season long ranks and projections, Hillsdale Academy looks to be a strong favorite. Portage is always a great simulation of what a State Finals may entail. Similar competition, similar excitement, and a great number of ranked teams are there in the lower divisions. There, the Colts moved from 2^nd place at the mile to 1^st at the finish, dropping 35 points along the way. Their fifth was in before anyone’s fourth and they had the frontrunners score low early on.

Beyond them, this is as about as wide-open a race for the 2^nd spot as you’ll find. The simulations show four separate teams with a decent percentage of getting there – Saugatuck, J-L, Holland Calvary Christian, and WMC. Three of those faced off in the same region on Saturday, with HCC decidedly dominating up front. Portage again was home to all of these, and when Joburg was thrown into the mix, the Cardinals came out ahead. Saugatuck’s fifth was the best of the bunch, and WMC was the last of the the four (though they beat the Trailblazers on Saturday). So yep, up for grabs by anyone. Don’t even be shocked if a Three Oaks River Valley or Kalamazoo Hackett slides in there.

Boys Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Owen Patton	Vestaburg	1.1
2	12	Thomas Holm	Hillsdale Academy	4.2
3	10	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	4.7
4	12	Tyler Lenn	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	5.8
5	11	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	6.5
6	10	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	9.0
7	12	Abe VanDuinen	Pentwater	10.0
8	9	Kyle Redman	Mesick	10.2
9	11	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	12.6
10	12	Malaki Gascho	Johannesburg-Lewiston	13.0
11	11	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	13.3
12	9	Ty Redman	Mesick	13.3
13	12	Michael Allen	East Jackson	13.5
14	12	Sawyer Stoneman	Breckenridge	14.1
15	10	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	14.3
16	11	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	15.4
17	12	Gavin Sehy	Kalamazoo Hackett	16.5
18	11	Reece Poole	Hillsdale Academy	19.7
19	12	Kaden Forward	Bear Lake-Onekama	20.3
20	10	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	20.5
21	11	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	20.7
22	12	Blake Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	23.3
23	10	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	23.7
24	11	Tyler Laansma	Tri-unity Christian	28.4
25	12	Javin Mericle	East Jackson	29.4
26	10	Lynus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	29.6
27	10	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	30.9
28	9	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	31.5
29	12	Graeson Lawrence	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	32.1
30	9	Riley Weed	Holland Calvary Christian	32.2
31	10	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	32.3
32	10	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	34.9
33	12	Aiden Fitchett	Dryden	35.5
34	11	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	35.8
35	9	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge	39.2
36	12	Austin York	Three Oaks River Valley	40.3
37	8	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-unity Christian	40.7
38	9	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	41.2
39	12	Mitchel Daniels	Pentwater	43.0
40	12	Myles Tilma	Byron Center Zion Christian	43.1
41	9	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian	45.5
42	10	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	45.7
43	10	Carson Burgess	Brown City	46.8
44	10	Rich Fanti	Riverview Gabriel Richard	47.3
45	12	Luke Sprague	St Philip Catholic Central	47.8
46	10	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	50.4
47	10	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	50.4
48	12	Isaac Zammit	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	50.9
49	12	Utah Gusa	Ubly	52.9
50	10	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	58.2
51	11	Joel Lange	Adrian Lenawee Christian	58.9
52	9	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	59.2
53	9	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	59.3
54	10	Joel Johnson	Detroit Frederick Douglass	59.7
55	11	Rodney Iamurri	Saginaw Nouvel	59.9
56	12	Luke Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	60.7
57	9	Vern Clyne	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	60.8
58	9	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	62.7
59	11	Carroll Robotham	Frankfort	64.0
60	11	Matthew Pasiak	Harbor Beach	64.1
61	9	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	64.5
62	12	Carson Foondle	White Cloud	65.9
63	12	Trevor Clarke	Harbor Springs	66.0
64	10	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	67.2
65	12	Connor Rouse	Genesee	68.2
66	12	Evan Sumner	Plymouth Christian Academy	70.2
67	10	Jesse Fielis	White Pigeon	71.4
68	11	Turlough Bennett	Marlette	71.5
69	11	Russell Vandermus	Petoskey St. Michael	71.8
70	10	Brennan Nor	Saugatuck	74.3
71	10	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	74.3
72	12	Jacob Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	74.4
73	12	Gavin Helgeson	Mayville	76.1
74	12	Carter Follett	Merrill	77.2
75	10	Henry Lindley	Hillsdale Academy	78.1
76	12	Logan Kihnke	Harbor Springs	80.1
77	10	Adam Ferguson	Harbor Springs	81.0
78	11	Tom Shafer	Lutheran HS Westland	81.5
79	12	William Kennedy	East Jackson	84.1
80	10	Andrew Lopez	Royal Oak Shrine	84.3
81	12	Nathan Daniels	Adrian Lenawee Christian	85.0
82	10	Kristian Coon	Carson City-Crystal	86.1
83	12	Ben Gura	Kimball New Life Christian	87.6
84	11	Austin Sneed	East Jordan	88.0
85	11	Henry Malburg	Mason County Eastern	88.4
86	9	Ryan Miller	Hillsdale Academy	90.3
87	11	Zack Becker	Unionville-Sebewaing	90.6
88	12	Agustin Creamer	Leland	91.1
89	11	Ben Iobe	Mendon	92.8
90	12	Trevor Feldpausch	Fowler	94.3
91	10	James Rahe	Hillsdale Academy	94.5
92	11	Samuel Shatto	Harbor Beach	95.2
93	12	Dusty Layman	Johannesburg-Lewiston	95.6
94	12	Carter Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	95.7
95	9	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	96.1
96	9	Milo Shoup	Mason County Eastern	96.1
97	12	Luke Douglas	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	96.4
98	9	Landon Wilkins	Morenci	96.7
99	10	Cole Brege	Rogers City	97.6
100	11	Beau Shaffer	Morenci	97.9

Owen Patton is a pretty clear favorite and he’s got a season’s full of results to prove it. He’s run fast early and late, winning along the way as well. A summer of consistent mileage has proven to us and himself that he’s much more than an 800m runner. Thomas Holm has been very consistent all year. Abenezer Cerone has won a large invite in Holly, running away from the D4 field early and maintaining (heck, building) the lead as the race wore on. Tyler Lenn has been battling all year in his return from injury, but we know from past experience that he shows up in big spots.