Division 1 State Finals Projections

WEEK THREE
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CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON
COUNTY WEEK
LEAGUE WEEK
REGIONAL WEEK

This year’s version of the State Projections and Previews will be lighter on the writing than the previous ones. There’s a reason that I wrote so much for the rankings throughout the year, hopefully you can refer back to those for the backstories on the teams and individuals.

This year, just as the regionals were last week and projections were last year, I worked with the simulations. I liked my regional write-up for that, here’s one for example if you’d like to read. For the State version, I ran through 10x more simulations. Which really doesn’t sound like much, but when you graduate from 1,000 simulations to 10,000, that’s a significant jump. And given that the projected state qualifying teams were higher than ever, perhaps we’re onto something.

Girls Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Projected Scores by Runner

Analysis

Romeo came into the year as the pre-season favorite, added a All-State caliber transfer, has stayed healthy, and their freshman stud has risen to every moment. Even without the addition of Deskins, they’d be the favorite here. Coach Buslepp has figured out the formula for MIS success, evidenced by their boys win in 2020 and last year, the 2nd place finish from these girls.

Second? Holland West Ottawa is impossible to predict. Yes, the Panthers have been steadily rising, but what can we expect from Helen Sachs? These ratings are great at taking a season’s worth of results and figuring out where someone places, they’re not great at taking one regional race and projecting from there. Either way, this squad has handled the pressure of repeating with grace. Ann Arbor Pioneer has been there all year as well, and they’re another team with big race experience. Whether that’s track nationals or the three-peat from 2019-2021, these girls have been through it all.

Girls Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Rachel Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	12	Selma Anderson	GR Ottawa Hills	2.2
3	9	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	3.6
4	12	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota	6.3
5	10	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	6.5
6	11	Lucy Cook	Rochester	8.6
7	10	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	9.0
8	12	Clara James-Heer	Forest Hills Central	10.0
9	11	Cassie Garcia	Northville	11.0
10	12	Morgan Brown	Livonia Churchill	11.4
11	12	Katie Watkins	Midland Dow	11.6
12	10	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	14.2
13	12	Ella Christensen	Northville	14.7
14	11	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	16.5
15	11	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	19.8
16	12	Lydia Bowman	Ann Arbor Pioneer	21.2
17	10	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	21.4
18	12	Laney Alig	Saline	21.8
19	10	Addie Birkholz	Holland West Ottawa	23.2
20	11	Victoria Garces	Midland Dow	23.4
21	12	Layla Krayem	Livonia Stevenson	25.1
22	12	Shannon Gillahan	Okemos	25.5
23	11	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	28.2
24	9	Anyla Robinson	Detroit Cass Tech	31.3
25	11	Grace Tykocki	Grand Blanc	31.4
26	12	Payton Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	31.9
27	12	Carrigan Eberly	Brighton	33.7
28	11	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	34.5
29	12	Braydee Elling	Oxford	36.9
30	11	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	37.3
31	11	Chloe DeRidder	Grandville	37.9
32	12	Natalie Mello	Ann Arbor Pioneer	38.1
33	11	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	38.5
34	12	Mariah Belmont	Macomb Dakota	40.6
35	11	Elle Bissett	Brighton	40.9
36	11	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	41.2
37	12	Hannah DeRoeck	Lake Orion	44.1
38	12	Izzy Fazio	Forest Hills Northern	45.2
39	10	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	45.9
40	11	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	46.0
41	11	Lauren Walker	Holt	46.7
42	12	Paige McArdle	Davison	47.5
43	11	Addy Smith	Grand Haven	47.8
44	12	Ella Kirkwood	Traverse City Central	47.8
45	12	Allison Mayer	Ann Arbor Skyline	49.4
46	11	Annie Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	51.6
47	12	Alisia Olteanu	Walled Lake Western	52.1
48	10	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	52.3
49	11	Corynn Gady	Saline	52.4
50	11	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	52.8
51	10	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills	53.4
52	12	Sylvia Sanok Dufallo	Ann Arbor Pioneer	54.3
53	11	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	54.4
54	11	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	54.6
55	11	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	58.6
56	12	Alexis Ball	Traverse City Central	59.4
57	9	Daisy Cox	Rockford	60.5
58	10	Lillian Schlack	Saline	60.9
59	11	Molly Baracco	Farmington	64.8
60	10	Kayla Ward	South Lyon	65.3
61	12	Emma Hoffmeyer	Walled Lake Western	66.1
62	9	Gabriella Fugazzi	Okemos	66.4
63	10	Abby Veit	TC West	66.9
64	9	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	67.2
65	12	Madelyn Gordon	Walled Lake Northern	70.0
66	11	Grace Grupido	Fraser	71.0
67	11	Anna Sybenga	Forest Hills Central	73.1
68	9	Ava Goodman	Hartland	74.1
69	12	Katie Hume	Ann Arbor Pioneer	76.3
70	12	Alexandra Brigham	Clarkston	77.3
71	9	Becca van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	78.3
72	12	Ava King	TC West	78.4
73	12	Nina Frost	Fenton	78.5
74	11	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	78.9
75	9	Emma Brown	Utica	80.7
76	11	Emma Smith	Rockford	83.0
77	11	Clare Mathison	Forest Hills Central	83.6
78	10	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	83.7
79	11	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	84.1
80	10	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	85.3
81	12	Sydney Smith	Davison	86.5
82	12	Emilee Rudlaff	Kalamazoo Central	86.7
83	9	Tessa Mascari	TC West	88.3
84	9	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	89.8
85	10	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	90.4
86	11	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	90.8
87	10	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	91.1
88	10	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	91.7
89	9	Colette Lozo	Northville	92.4
90	11	Sydney Roberts	Midland Dow	93.0
91	10	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	93.8
92	9	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion	94.1
93	10	Quincy Behm	Ann Arbor Pioneer	94.5
94	10	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	96.0
95	10	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	96.2
96	11	Catherine Steele	Farmington	96.7
97	12	Lily Salazar	Okemos	98.7
98	9	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	99.9
99	12	Nicole Mays	Okemos	100.5
100	11	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	101.0

The only question is the course record. Lansing Catholic’s Olivia Theis ran a 16:52 in 2016, which is the official course record. In 2009, Megan Goethals ran what may be the most impressive performance, a 16:54 with wind blasting into your face down the home stretch (speed rating of 188.7). Rachel Forsyth has matched that number or gone above it in these past two races. Conditions appear to be optimal, don’t be shocked if sub-16:30 is in the cards.

Boys Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Projected Scores by Runner

Analysis

These two KLAA squads have been at it all year. Northville vs. Brighton. The scorecard is tied, with one rubber match. The Bulldogs have captured the major invites: Spartan and Portage, placing seven of front of Northville’s third at Portage, four in front at Spartan. In local competition, the Mustangs have come out victorious, splitting up that Brighton pack in their tri and at their conference championships. Look for this: both the bubble and the time gap. If there’s a significant amount of space between each 5th finisher, the advantage tilts to Brighton. If Northville’s boys stick to Brighton like glue, advantage towards the Mustangs. There’s been some distinctly different strategy as well, with Brighton taking it out harder and holding on, Northville picking off bodies as the race wears on.

Boys Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Seth Norder	Grand Haven	2.4
2	12	Brendan Herger	Northville	5.2
3	12	Aiden Moore	BC Lakeview	5.8
4	12	Thomas Westphal	New Baltimore Anchor Bay	6.2
5	12	Vishvaa Ravishankar	Troy	6.4
6	11	Seth Conner	Jenison	7.7
7	12	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo	7.9
8	11	Ethan Powell	Northville	8.6
9	9	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	10.6
10	12	Brandon Anderson	Dexter	12.1
11	12	Ty Parker	Walled Lake Northern	13.1
12	10	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	13.3
13	11	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	13.5
14	12	Luke Suliman	Ann Arbor Skyline	15.5
15	12	Sebastian Ramirez	Royal Oak	16.3
16	12	Noah Selvaraj	Bay City Western	17.3
17	12	Tyler Langley	Brighton	18.3
18	12	Jasper Cane	Kalamazoo Central	18.9
19	11	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	21.2
20	11	Alexander McArthur	Oxford	22.3
21	12	Iain Forrest	Davison	24.1
22	12	Mitchell Clark	Canton	25.6
23	9	Jack MacGregor	Howell	25.7
24	10	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	25.7
25	12	Truman Johnson	Saline	25.9
26	12	Carter Fox	Macomb Dakota	27.5
27	12	Pierce Grzymkowski	White Lake Lakeland	28.9
28	10	Harper Wesley	Utica	29.7
29	12	Liam Walters	GR Ottawa Hills	32.2
30	12	Luke Campbell	Brighton	32.5
31	12	Vincent Peterson Sand	Ann Arbor Pioneer	32.7
32	11	Mason Lucas	Jenison	38.0
33	12	Connor Clor	Romeo	40.4
34	10	Benjamin Hartigan	Northville	43.0
35	12	Tyler Brothers	Utica Eisenhower	45.4
36	12	Anirudh Krishnan	Plymouth	45.6
37	12	Evan Rice	Walled Lake Northern	45.6
38	12	Ian Lewis	Livonia Churchill	46.1
39	11	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	47.8
40	12	Willem DeGood	TC West	48.2
41	12	Zack Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	48.2
42	12	Oliver Moss	Berkley	49.3
43	11	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	50.5
44	12	Logan Begeman	Portage Central	51.1
45	11	Malcolm Spiegle	Livonia Churchill	53.4
46	11	James Cusick	Oxford	54.3
47	11	Tyler Brock	Brighton	54.5
48	11	Carter Livermore	Grandville	54.8
49	12	Jaxon Allen	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	56.8
50	11	Brady Millington	Brighton	58.4
51	9	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	59.8
52	12	Dylan Penberthy	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North	61.7
53	12	Roman Smith	Grand Haven	65.1
54	10	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	65.3
55	9	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	66.8
56	9	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	66.8
57	12	Colin MacGregor	Midland Dow	67.1
58	11	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	67.3
59	11	Nick Barretto	Northville	67.3
60	10	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	68.2
61	12	Mason Jett	Ann Arbor Skyline	68.2
62	12	Bryce Nowik	Clarkston	68.6
63	12	Louis D’Souza	Troy	68.8
64	11	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	69.2
65	12	Simon Davis	Macomb Dakota	69.9
66	11	Adam Dicken	Canton	72.7
67	11	Elijah Forbord	Brighton	73.4
68	10	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	73.5
69	12	Eric Overdier	Ann Arbor Pioneer	74.9
70	10	Ian Morgan	Okemos	75.2
71	11	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	75.8
72	12	Braxton Sipes	Royal Oak	75.8
73	11	Logan Mullan	Detroit U-D Jesuit	76.3
74	11	Mitchell Jeruzal	Byron Center	79.7
75	12	Jack DeWaele	Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley	80.9
76	11	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston	81.1
77	12	Brandon Penberthy	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North	83.2
78	12	Kenny Lewis	Saginaw Heritage	83.8
79	10	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	85.2
80	12	Luke Oyster	Utica Eisenhower	86.8
81	11	Tyler Outlaw	Brighton	88.0
82	11	Andrew Kaczmarczyk	Bay City Western	88.1
83	10	Nate Linden	Troy Athens	90.5
84	10	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	91.8
85	10	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	92.9
86	10	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	93.2
87	11	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota	94.8
88	11	Napolean Lino	Rochester	95.2
89	10	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	95.2
90	10	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	96.5
91	11	Kort Thompson	Caledonia	97.3
92	12	Jack DeKruyter	Zeeland West	98.9
93	12	Bryce Goodsell	Romeo	100.0
94	11	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	101.7
95	11	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	103.2
96	10	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	104.4
97	9	Liam Wierzba	TC West	105.1
98	12	Aiden Janes	Rochester Adams	107.0
99	12	Ryan Ward	White Lake Lakeland	107.7
100	12	Andrew Foshag	Monroe	109.0

With the monkey off his back, State 3200m in hand, plus a three race streak of sub-15’s, Seth Norder comes in as the favorite. He’s undefeated this year when facing D1 competition and letting it loose. Combine that with his ability to rise to the occasion (2nd here as a sophomore) and knowing what to anticipate up front, expect him to handle any challenge out there.

Beyond Seth, any number of kids could make a splash into second. Brendan Herger, exemplifying the patient Mustang tactics, will certainly be roaring down the stretch. Thomas Westphal isn’t afraid to stick his nose in any race. Vishvaa Ravishankar ripped a 15:11 at Jackson and has won tough races at OAA Red and Region 8. Seth Conner has answered the question of who’s the best junior. And Aiden Moore has been one of the better high-level, consistent athletes these past few weeks.