Division 2 State Finals Projections

WEEK THREE
WEEK FOUR
CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON
COUNTY WEEK
LEAGUE WEEK
REGIONAL WEEK

This year’s version of the State Projections and Previews will be lighter on the writing than the previous ones. There’s a reason that I wrote so much for the rankings throughout the year, hopefully you can refer back to those for the backstories on the teams and individuals.

This year, just as the regionals were last week and projections were last year, I worked with the simulations. I liked my regional write-up for that, here’s one for example if you’d like to read. For the State version, I ran through 10x more simulations. Which really doesn’t sound like much, but when you graduate from 1,000 simulations to 10,000, that’s a significant jump. And given that the projected state qualifying teams were higher than ever, perhaps we’re onto something.

Girls Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Projected Scores by Runner

Analysis

This is about as straight-forward as you’ll get. Grand Rapids Christian has been dominant in every meet, whether that’s placing four in the top-8 at Otsego and Region 11, winning Portage, or beating Pioneer at Benzie. For second, it’s likely a two horse race between Otsego and Goodrich. It’s very tough coming back as the defending champ, but the Bulldogs have handled it admirably. Goodrich is seeing the realization of all that middle school talent that’s flown into their program these past few years. Goodrich is probably a bit stronger towards the back, though Otsego has three potential All-Staters, meaning they only really have to worry about scoring two.

Girls Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Natalie VanOtteren	GR Christian	1.8
2	12	Gail Vaikutis	St. Joseph	3.0
3	11	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	3.5
4	9	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	5.0
5	12	Emily Tomes	GR Catholic Central	6.1
6	12	Drew Muller	East Grand Rapids	7.0
7	11	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	8.8
8	10	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	9.9
9	12	Mary Richmond	Frankenmuth	10.8
10	10	Ellie Scholma	GR Christian	11.5
11	12	Meghan Ford	Mason	14.4
12	11	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	14.8
13	10	Lilah Poel	GR Christian	15.3
14	11	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	15.4
15	10	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	15.5
16	12	Logan Brazee	Otsego	15.6
17	11	Ezgi Kurt	Alma	21.7
18	12	Jenna Pilachowski	Monroe Jefferson	22.6
19	11	Summer Brower	Ludington	23.1
20	11	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	23.7
21	12	Payton Holtz	GR Christian	24.4
22	12	Megan Germain	Otsego	24.5
23	11	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	24.8
24	12	Allison Kuzma	Zeeland East	25.6
25	12	Addison Washler	FHE Ada Forest Hills Eastern	29.9
26	9	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	30.1
27	12	Kyla Meyers	Spring Lake	31.6
28	9	Olivia Hollebeek	Holland Christian	32.9
29	12	Naomi Nelson	GR Christian	33.6
30	12	Emma DeVries	GR West Mich. Aviation	33.8
31	12	Camille DeCola	Marshall	33.9
32	11	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	35.3
33	11	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	35.9
34	10	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	37.5
35	10	Samantha Brown	Clio	37.7
36	9	Caroline Randall	Hastings	38.3
37	12	Anastee Davis	Adrian	38.5
38	12	Nora O’Leary	Petoskey	40.6
39	11	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	41.0
40	12	Tatum Dykstra	Fruitport	41.3
41	12	Abby Young	St. Johns	41.3
42	12	Ellia Agar	GR_South Christian	45.3
43	11	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	46.3
44	9	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	47.4
45	9	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	48.7
46	9	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	49.0
47	9	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	49.9
48	11	Mea D’Agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	51.6
49	12	Bea Reeser	Spring Lake	51.8
50	9	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	52.1
51	9	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	52.6
52	10	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	54.9
53	12	Maddie Bosch	Hudsonville Unity Christian	55.7
54	9	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	55.9
55	9	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	56.0
56	10	Linnea Paige	Fremont	56.5
57	10	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	57.9
58	11	Madison Morris	Tecumseh	58.4
59	12	Emma Steele	Vicksburg	64.4
60	9	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	65.6
61	11	Joy Evans	Alma	66.3
62	11	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	66.9
63	11	Chloe Josephson	Linden	68.4
64	10	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	69.5
65	10	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	71.3
66	11	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	71.8
67	12	Ava Baltierra	Armada	72.6
68	11	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	73.2
69	12	Adia Sikkema	GR Christian	74.5
70	10	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	75.5
71	12	Sparrow Centeno	Southgate Anderson	77.2
72	12	Claire Marosi	GR Catholic Central	77.8
73	9	Lucy Waalkes	GR Christian	78.2
74	12	Clara Fletcher	St. Johns	78.5
75	12	CamBrie Corey	Petoskey	81.7
76	10	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	81.7
77	9	Claire Brown	Goodrich	81.9
78	12	Morgan Newton	Croswell-Lexington	81.9
79	9	Mia May	Sparta	81.9
80	11	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	82.3
81	10	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	82.5
82	11	Cami Kraai	Whitehall	83.1
83	10	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	88.0
84	11	Karie Keefer	Freeland	88.3
85	11	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	88.4
86	11	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	89.3
87	9	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	90.1
88	12	Jennifer Hernandez-Medina	Three Rivers	91.3
89	10	Emma Crandell	Owosso	91.7
90	10	Jillian Clason	FHE Ada Forest Hills Eastern	92.5
91	9	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	92.8
92	11	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	93.6
93	12	Libby Summerland	Owosso	95.7
94	9	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	96.8
95	10	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	97.5
96	9	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	98.1
97	11	Courtney Bovair	Carleton Airport	98.4
98	10	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	98.9
99	10	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	99.0
100	12	Jade Murdoch	St. Joseph	102.3

It’ll probably be these three girls at the front. They’ve all shown the ability to ratchet things down into the mid-17’s when needed, such as their matchups at Cougar Falcon and Portage. Gail Vaikutis captured Portage, Natalie VanOtteren at Cougar Falcon, and Elena Figueroa was right there in each. The ratings slightly favor VanOtteren, but the ratings aren’t the greatest at taking those who are saving their energy, as it appears the St. Joseph tandem has been doing the past few weeks. Beyond these three, look for freshman Ava Schafer, defending champ Drew Muller, and Emily Tomes to kick down any carnage that presents itself.

Boys Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Projected Scores by Runner

Analysis

You’re just gonna have to read Jacob Tanner’s excellent, lengthy preview. I told Jacob before the week that I wasn’t going to work on the same subjects that he did and he knocked it out of the park here. Real quick though, it all depends on where the packs are. If there’s a ton of runners between FHE/Allendale/GR Christian’s 4th and 5th and Pinckney’s 4th and 5th, the former will likely stay ahead. If not, Pinckney has a real chance. If so, it comes down to the first three guys of those first three teams, and as of now, it appears that FHE has the strength there.

Boys Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Connell Alford	Chelsea	2.0
2	11	TJ Hansen	Freeland	2.4
3	12	Evan Loughridge	Pinckney	2.8
4	12	Solomon Kwartowitz	Cranbrook Kingswood	4.3
5	12	Alex Thole	East Grand Rapids	6.4
6	11	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	7.5
7	12	Noah Lambers	Holland	9.2
8	12	Paul Moore	Pinckney	9.3
9	11	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	12.3
10	11	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	12.7
11	12	Nate Carmody	Haslett	13.8
12	12	Sean Pettis	Fremont	13.9
13	12	Braylon Petty	Adrian	15.3
14	10	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	17.8
15	11	Simon Triezenberg	GR Christian	18.9
16	12	Ryan Brinker	East Grand Rapids	20.8
17	12	Logan Ruffner	Riverview	20.8
18	12	Elliott Sirianni	Clio	21.0
19	12	Brendan Hoving	Forest Hills Eastern	24.0
20	12	Liam Hinman	Forest Hills Eastern	24.9
21	10	Thomas Larson	Alma	25.8
22	12	Gregory Janesak	Sparta	26.3
23	10	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	26.5
24	11	Dominic Lowrie	BC Harper Creek	26.5
25	10	Owen Metzger	Sparta	26.6
26	12	Nolan Pinion	Lake Fenton	27.2
27	11	Alex Doneth	Mason	27.3
28	11	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	29.2
29	12	Ethan Sandula	Pinckney	29.7
30	11	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	30.7
31	11	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	31.6
32	12	Caleb Palmreuter	Gladwin	32.2
33	9	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	34.3
34	10	Moises Salazar	Adrian	35.5
35	12	David Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	40.1
36	12	Aiden Krueger	Niles	40.5
37	12	Isaac Staib	St. Johns	41.3
38	12	Brewer Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	41.8
39	11	Seth Mead	Gladwin	42.3
40	11	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	43.1
41	9	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	43.9
42	11	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	44.1
43	11	Henry Cox	Plainwell	44.5
44	11	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	45.0
45	11	Jeb Hillary	GR Catholic Central	47.0
46	12	Cooper Jacobsen	Forest Hills Eastern	47.2
47	12	Shay White	St. Joseph	47.7
48	12	Connor Griffith	Marshall	49.4
49	12	Andrew Yax	Clio	50.5
50	11	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	50.6
51	12	Shane Izzard	Petoskey	50.7
52	12	Nolan Nixon	Cadillac	51.0
53	12	Dylan Clark	GR Christian	51.3
54	11	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	55.4
55	10	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	55.9
56	11	Keegan Hoekstra	GR Christian	56.9
57	11	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	58.2
58	10	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	58.5
59	11	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	61.8
60	11	Ben Gross	Allendale	62.2
61	11	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	65.4
62	12	Blake Ferguson	Yale	65.9
63	12	Luke Glasgow	Spring Lake	66.0
64	10	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	66.9
65	12	Cooper Singleton	Parma Western	67.1
66	12	Giovanni Pardo-Keegan	Yale	67.1
67	12	Jacob Montgomery	Ionia	69.7
68	11	Carter Sherman	Fremont	74.6
69	11	Landen Wise	Frankenmuth	75.2
70	12	Ali Kudmani	Alma	76.8
71	11	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	78.2
72	11	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	78.3
73	12	Matthew Schrauben	St. Johns	78.9
74	9	Ryan Good	Parma Western	79.5
75	12	Jonathan Koetje	GR Christian	80.9
76	12	Tommy Farley	Petoskey	81.6
77	12	Ian Richthammer	GR Catholic Central	85.0
78	11	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	85.0
79	11	Reece Davis	Marshall	85.2
80	11	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	85.4
81	12	Acer Campbell	Yale	85.7
82	12	Tate Miller	Forest Hills Eastern	86.1
83	10	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	86.2
84	12	Isaac Veen	Plainwell	87.4
85	10	Murphy Wagner	Saginaw Swan Valley	87.7
86	12	Peter Kuperus	GR Christian	88.1
87	12	Dane Bailey	Edwardsburg	88.7
88	12	William O’Dell	BC Harper Creek	88.8
89	9	Mason Hill	Allendale	90.0
90	10	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	91.2
91	11	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth	93.7
92	12	Matthew Canales	Adrian	95.3
93	10	Micah Small	GR Christian	95.9
94	10	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	96.6
95	12	Joe Waalkes	GR Christian	97.6
96	11	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	97.7
97	11	Will Whitmore	Holland Christian	98.3
98	11	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	98.4
99	9	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	98.5
100	12	Dylan Distelrath	St. Clair	100.6

The odds have Connell Alford as the slight favorite. Those odds don’t take into account that he’s won here before, which in my opinion plays a bit of a role. But he hasn’t won here before with this level of competition. Results this year show that he can – whether that’s low-15’s at Portage and Spartan or a dominant win in his opener at Lamplighter. TJ Hansen probably has the most pop, highest wow factor of any competitor. Those who were at Bluejay say that he looked completely under control during his negative-splitted 14:46. Following a defeat at Portage, he’s cruised into the meet here, can he now summon that effort from a month ago? Evan Loughridge has been the most consistent of the bunch, steadily running the equivalent of 15:20’s each time out. One of those times was a win over Alford, another a win over Kwartowitz. Solomon Kwartowitz has the fastest 3200m PB of the bunch and his resume this season consists of hills, hills, and more hills. MIS should appear like a pancake compared to this past month, so there’s a great chance he outperforms his ranking just like last year.