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2024 State Previews & Predictions: Distance

It’s that time of the year where the Best Crews get thrown aside, the numbers are tossed in the trash, and ol’ MIXCSR gets to voice his own predictions. 2022’s preview included simulations (similar to what I do in cross country), 2023’s version had stats and charts for an athlete’s average/most recent performances. Compiling all that info is easy during the fall, with 17 separate events in the spring, it’s too dang tedious.

Instead, I’ll be just rolling with my own predictions. I feel that I can do that. Cross Country is all number-based, as are the Best Crews, this is my one moment to put my thoughts out there. But before I let you know my process, know this: I appreciate everyone for competing, to those who’ve made it to June and those who haven’t, you’re awesome. To those who see this and want to prove them wrong: Go do that and tell me about it afterward. To those who see this and want to prove them right: I know you’re 100% capable of showing the world your greatness.

For distance predictions, these were all based off your performances this season and my own thoughts. Given that distance runners tend to scratch Finals races more often than other events, I tried my best to anticipate where those will be. So if you’re wondering why you’re not predicted for an event you know you’re running – I guessed wrong.

Because I’m strapped for time (you try writing 25,000 words or 100 pages in ten days while working full-time), no writeups, but a few predictions. Conditions will be ideal, times and especially competition will be blazing. I’m putting some wildly optimistic times out there that I’m fully confident our great runners can attain.

BOYS PROJECTED SCORES (THROUGH ALL EVENTS)
GIRLS PROJECTED SCORES (THROUGH ALL EVENTS)

BOYS 4x800m

Division 1: It’ll take at least 7:48 to medal
Division 2: Every team in the fast section will be sub-8
Division 3: At least 5 teams are sub-8.
Division 4: 7 teams under 8:20
UP: 12 teams under 9.

PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Forest Hills Central1LP
2Northville1LP
3Clarkston1LP
4Walled Lake Northern1LP
5Troy1LP
6Kalamazoo Central1LP
7Troy Athens1LP
8Canton1LP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Marshall2LP
2Allendale2LP
3DeWitt2LP
4Frankenmuth2LP
5Adrian2LP
6Gladwin2LP
7Pinckney2LP
8Yale2LP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Reed City3LP
2Jonesville3LP
3Traverse City St. Francis3LP
4Olivet3LP
5Ithaca3LP
6Clare3LP
7Blissfield3LP
8St. Louis3LP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Kalamazoo Hackett4LP
2Maple City Glen Lake4LP
3Muskegon Western Mich. Christian4LP
4Battle Creek St. Philip4LP
5Marine City Cardinal Mooney4LP
6East Jackson4LP
7Three Oaks River Valley4LP
8Harbor Springs4LP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Marquette1UP
2Houghton1UP
3Sault Ste. Marie1UP
4Escanaba1UP
5Manistique1UP
6Kingsford1UP
7Negaunee1UP
8Ishpeming Westwood1UP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Pickford2UP
2Ishpeming2UP
3Munising2UP
4Bark River-Harris2UP
5Ironwood2UP
6Gwinn2UP
7Hancock2UP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Foresst Park3UP
2Newberry3UP
3Dollar Bay3UP
4Lake Linden-Hubbell3UP
5St. Ignace3UP
6Eben Jct. Superior Central3UP
7Wilson Hannahville-Nah Tah3UP

GIRLS 4x800m

Division 1: It’ll take under 9:20 to get on the podium.
Division 2: It’ll take under 9:40 to get on the podium.
Division 3: 10 teams under 10.
Division 4: 6 teams under 10.
UP: 14 teams under 11.

PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Ann Arbor Pioneer1LP
2Holland West Ottawa1LP
3Grand Haven1LP
4Walled Lake Northern1LP
5Brighton1LP
6Zeeland East1LP
7Northville1LP
8Saline1LP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Frankenmuth2LP
2DeWitt2LP
3Freeland2LP
4East Grand Rapids2LP
5Holland Christian2LP
6Stevensville Lakeshore2LP
7Otsego2LP
8Forest Hills Eastern2LP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Jackson Lumen Christi3LP
2Lansing Catholic3LP
3Caro3LP
4Kent City3LP
5St. Mary Catholic Central3LP
6Traverse City St. Francis3LP
7Ithaca3LP
8Elk Rapids3LP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Whitmore Lake4LP
2Muskegon Western Mich. Christian4LP
3Hillsdale Academy4LP
4Pittsford4LP
5Johannesburg-Lewiston4LP
6Gobles4LP
7Fowler4LP
8Martin4LP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Houghton1UP
2Marquette1UP
3Sault Ste. Marie1UP
4Manistique1UP
5Gladstone1UP
6Negaunee1UP
7Calumet1UP
8Kingsford1UP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Ishpeming2UP
2Bark River-Harris2UP
3West Iron County2UP
4Pickford2UP
5Ironwood2UP
6Munising2UP
7Rudyard2UP
PlaceTeamDivisionPeninsula
1Newberry3UP
2Dollar Bay3UP
3Stephenson3UP
4North Dickinson County3UP
5Ewen-Trout Creek3UP
6Brimley3UP
7Rapid River3UP

BOYS 1600m

SIX boys will be under 4:10

PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Seth NorderGrand Haven1LP
212Jasper CaneKalamazoo Central1LP
312Aiden MooreBattle Creek Lakeview1LP
412Anirudh KrishnanPlymouth1LP
511Seth ConnerJenison1LP
612Kenny LewisSaginaw Heritage1LP
712Vincent GuaresimoRomeo1LP
812Luke CampbellBrighton1LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111TJ HansenFreeland2LP
212Paul MoorePinckney2LP
312Sean PettisFremont2LP
411Jack BidwellMarshall2LP
511Henry DixonForest Hills Eastern2LP
612Caleb PalmreuterGladwin2LP
710Ronnie SilvieraAllendale2LP
812Alex TholeEast Grand Rapids2LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Brad WhiteClare3LP
211August RohdeReed City3LP
312Collin FarmerPewamo-Westphalia3LP
412Boden GenoveseColoma3LP
512Jackson RodriguezThe Potter’s House3LP
612Anthony KiaunisReed City3LP
711Mitchell HiattOnsted3LP
812Keegan MastersOttawa Lake-Whiteford3LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Tyler LennMarine City Cardinal Mooney4LP
212Owen PattonVestaburg4LP
312Abe VanDuinenPentwater4LP
412Isaac ZammitMarine City Cardinal Mooney4LP
510Marek ButkiewiczKalamazoo Hackett4LP
610Landon RogersThree Oaks River Valley4LP
710Abenezer CeroneRoyal Oak Shrine4LP
811Colebrook SutherlandMaple City Glen Lake4LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111Evan BalkoMarquette1UP
210Gabe LitznerSault Ste. Marie1UP
311James BarchMarquette1UP
411Luke HillHoughton1UP
511Chase ThomsenMarquette1UP
611Birk SeagrenHoughton1UP
711Reed DeGrootKingsford1UP
89Blake TomasoskiKingsford1UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111Dan GossMunising2UP
212Hayden HagenPickford2UP
312Trevor NolanMunising2UP
49Benjamin KnaufBark River-Harris2UP
511Levi NichollsIshpeming2UP
69Kemper GearhartIshpeming2UP
711Zach SmithIronwood2UP
810Cameron AndersonPainesdale-Jeffers2UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111Kalvin KyttaChassell3UP
29Ethan SnyderCedarville3UP
310Canon KuntzeStephenson3UP
410John WheelerRepublic-Michigamme3UP
59Noah VerbosBessemer3UP
69Darren JohnsonBrimley3UP
711Ross PearsonCedarville3UP
810Joey MainvilleForest Park3UP

GIRLS 1600m

30+ girls will be sub-5.

PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Rachel ForsythAnn Arbor Pioneer1LP
212Selma AndersonGrand Rapids Ottawa Hills1LP
311Helen SachsHolland West Ottawa1LP
412Morgan BrownLivonia Churchill1LP
512Jayden HarbertsMacomb Dakota1LP
612Ella ChristensenNorthville1LP
711Victoria GarcesMidland Dow1LP
811Elena FigueroaSt. Joseph1LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Emily TomesGrand Rapids Catholic Central2LP
212Drew MullerEast Grand Rapids2LP
312Emma DeVriesGR West Michigan Aviation2LP
411Courtney BovairCarleton Airport2LP
510Natalie FoltzFrankenmuth2LP
611Kamryn LauingerGoodrich2LP
710Katie BerkshireGaylord2LP
811Sadey SeyferthEast Grand Rapids2LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Madison OsterbergJackson Lumen Christi3LP
212Tessa RoeLansing Catholic3LP
311Whitney WernerPewamo-Westphalia3LP
412Alyson EnnsHart3LP
59Kamryn SalladayLakeview3LP
610Hope MillerBlissfield3LP
79Grace WonchLansing Catholic3LP
812Katie RohrerCharlevoix3LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Aiden HarrandBuckley4LP
210Kaylie LivingstonWhitmore Lake4LP
310Carina BurchiWhitmore Lake4LP
411Eliza KeithAuburn Hills Oakland Christian4LP
512Ava TeedAllen Park Cabrini4LP
611Jane MantheiPetoskey St. Michael4LP
712Brooke SmithPittsford4LP
812Grace FolkemaMuskegon Western Mich. Christian4LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
110Ella FureMarquette1UP
211Monet ArgeropoulosMarquette1UP
39Winley BrandtMenominee1UP
410Tessa RautiolaHoughton1UP
511Marlee PlaxcoNegaunee1UP
611Lily RossHoughton1UP
712Abigail WaltherSault Ste. Marie1UP
811Roman Treviño PeterlinHoughton1UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
110Talya SchreiberPickford2UP
212Lola KorpiIshpeming2UP
311Aubrey SmithIronwood2UP
411Ella KeranenHancock2UP
510Jayna KeranenHancock2UP
611Hope VaroniBark River-Harris2UP
710Olivia CoteyMunising2UP
811Emma MitchellRudyard2UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
110Samantha TaylorNewberry3UP
29Abby TaylorNewberry3UP
312Kaylen ClarkNewberry3UP
49Vienna PriceForest Park3UP
512Taryn MakiDollar Bay3UP
612Mya GrunlundNorth Dickinson County3UP
712Grace VanWormerBig Bay de Noc3UP
89Sylvia AhoChassell3UP

BOYS 800m

SIX boys will be under 1:52.

PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Brendan HergerNorthville1LP
212Seth NorderGrand Haven1LP
312Tyler DonovanFraser1LP
412Brandon AndersonDexter1LP
511Adam DickenCanton1LP
612Drew GravesUtica Ford1LP
712Pierce GrzymkowskiWhite Lake Lakeland1LP
812Caden EhgotzBelleville1LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Matthew CanalesAdrian2LP
212Ian FowlerDeWitt2LP
312Elliott SirianniClio2LP
412Liam HinmanForest Hills Eastern2LP
511Abatu DykstraHamilton2LP
612Jacob MontgomeryIonia2LP
711Landen WiseFrankenmuth2LP
811Nolan LonguskiShepherd2LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111August RohdeReed City3LP
212Brad WhiteClare3LP
312Nolan GrantHillsdale3LP
412Gavin GuggemosKalkaska3LP
512Jackson RodriguezThe Potter’s House3LP
612Kyler PequetNapoleon3LP
712Boden GenoveseColoma3LP
811Sam MuirheadPewamo-Westphalia3LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Owen PattonVestaburg4LP
211Matthias MorseMuskegon Western Mich. Christian4LP
312Michael AllenEast Jackson4LP
412Tyler LennMarine City Cardinal Mooney4LP
510Sean SiemsKalamazoo Hackett4LP
610Abenezer CeroneRoyal Oak Shrine4LP
79Aaron LockeBeal City4LP
812Gavin SehyKalamazoo Hackett4LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
19Lucas BallardMarquette1UP
211Luke HillHoughton1UP
312Cullen PapinMarquette1UP
410Beepsee TeepleMarquette1UP
512James KraegMarquette1UP
69Cavan MulliganKingsford1UP
711Kaleb FornettiKingsford1UP
810Colin Van KarsenHoughton1UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Elijah SpragueRudyard2UP
212Trevor NolanMunising2UP
312Hayden HagenPickford2UP
411Dan GossMunising2UP
511Joey LauzonIronwood2UP
611Levi NichollsIshpeming2UP
79Kemper GearhartIshpeming2UP
812David BylkasHancock2UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111Joshua GauntDollar Bay3UP
210Garrett LewickiNewberry3UP
311Sam RahillyNewberry3UP
411Kalvin KyttaChassell3UP
59Brady AxfordLake Linden-Hubbell3UP
610Josh LuukkonenDollar Bay3UP
712Ethan LawrenceRepublic-Michigamme3UP
811Ross PearsonCedarville3UP

GIRLS 800m

SIX girls will be under 2:10.

PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Rachel ForsythAnn Arbor Pioneer1LP
212Kylee KingOak Park1LP
312Payton SchefflerBrownstown Woodhaven1LP
412Gail VaikutisSt. Joseph1LP
511Valerie BeeckGrand Haven1LP
611Lauren WalkerHolt1LP
79Anyla RobinsonDetroit Cass Tech1LP
89Ella WierksHolland West Ottawa1LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111Layla JordanGoodrich2LP
212Addison WashlerForest Hills Eastern2LP
39Elliana HuftonLake Fenton2LP
412Emily TomesGrand Rapids Catholic Central2LP
512Drew MullerEast Grand Rapids2LP
612Kyla MeyersSpring Lake2LP
711Joy EvansAlma2LP
811Grace HuffColdwater2LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111Emmry RossOnsted3LP
212Madison OsterbergJackson Lumen Christi3LP
312Sophia ReynoldsHanover-Horton3LP
410Kailee JonesConstantine3LP
59Kamryn SalladayLakeview3LP
611Whitney WernerPewamo-Westphalia3LP
712Samantha CootsClinton3LP
812Ava ViegelahnGrass Lake3LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Aiden HarrandBuckley4LP
211Allie NowakJohannesburg-Lewiston4LP
312Abby RiceRochester Hills Lutheran NW4LP
411Caroline RobertsHillsdale Academy4LP
511Izzy BrooksAdrian Lenawee Christian4LP
612Eleanor KingshottMuskegon Western Mich. Christian4LP
711Eliza KeithAuburn Hills Oakland Christian4LP
811Ella KnudsenLeland4LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
110Payton TakkunenGladstone1UP
29Keira WatermanNegaunee1UP
39Riley ConklinNegaunee1UP
412Taryn PrattSault Ste. Marie1UP
511Lily RossHoughton1UP
610Ella FureMarquette1UP
711Leah GoodreauManistique1UP
811Roman Treviño PeterlinHoughton1UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Lola KorpiIshpeming2UP
210Talya SchreiberPickford2UP
312Julia OlsonBark River-Harris2UP
412Brielle KeroHancock2UP
511Hope VaroniBark River-Harris2UP
611Aubrey SmithIronwood2UP
711Ella KeranenHancock2UP
810Olivia CoteyMunising2UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
19Abby TaylorNewberry3UP
212Kaylen ClarkNewberry3UP
38Bree BesonenEwen-Trout Creek3UP
410Emma BesonenEwen-Trout Creek3UP
59Sylvia AhoChassell3UP
69Sophie DesRochersBaraga3UP
710Faith CappaertStephenson3UP
89Vienna PriceForest Park3UP

BOYS 3200m

40 boys will be under 9:20.

PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Thomas WestphalAnchor Bay1LP
29Ben RomeroForest Hills Central1LP
312Sebastian RamirezRoyal Oak1LP
412Jasper CaneKalamazoo Central1LP
512Vishvaa RavishankarTroy1LP
610Kyle O’RourkeHighland-Milford1LP
79Kamari RonfeldtAnn Arbor Pioneer1LP
812Mitchell ClarkCanton1LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111TJ HansenFreeland2LP
211Jack BidwellMarshall2LP
312Paul MoorePinckney2LP
412Nate CarmodyHaslett2LP
510Edison LopemanParma Western2LP
611Colin MurrayDearborn Divine Child2LP
712Nolan PinionLake Fenton2LP
812Connell AlfordChelsea2LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Collin FarmerPewamo-Westphalia3LP
212Drew MooreGrayling3LP
39Bobby JazwinskiHart3LP
412Samuel MartiniKent City3LP
511Miingen BertrandIthaca3LP
612Ben MarchSt. Louis3LP
711Landon PestrueSt. Louis3LP
810Noah DevereauxLaingsburg3LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
110Marek ButkiewiczKalamazoo Hackett4LP
211Alex TyndallMason County Eastern4LP
311Theodore DavisDansville4LP
412Thomas HolmHillsdale Academy4LP
511Mason SinkeOnekama4LP
612Carson FoondleWhite Cloud4LP
710Brody KargHarbor Beach4LP
812Sawyer StonemanBreckenridge4LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
110Gabe LitznerSault Ste. Marie1UP
211Seppi CamilliMarquette1UP
311James BarchMarquette1UP
411Evan BalkoMarquette1UP
511Luke HillHoughton1UP
69Blake TomasoskiKingsford1UP
711Birk SeagrenHoughton1UP
810Simon JaklinNegaunee1UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Hayden HagenPickford2UP
211Dan GossMunising2UP
310Steven KirschnerRudyard2UP
49Jacob MitchellPickford2UP
59Kemper GearhartIshpeming2UP
611Levi NichollsIshpeming2UP
711Daniel TibaldoIronwood2UP
810Curtis ArchambeauHancock2UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111Kalvin KyttaChassell3UP
29Izaiah TarterForest Park3UP
39Darren JohnsonBrimley3UP
49Noah VerbosBessemer3UP
510Canon KuntzeStephenson3UP
612Ethan LawrenceRepublic-Michigamme3UP
710Kellen BrunoNewberry3UP
811Dakota TaylorEngadine3UP

GIRLS 3200m

50 girls will be sub-11.

PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
111Helen SachsHolland West Ottawa1LP
211Lucy CookRochester1LP
312Rachel ForsythAnn Arbor Pioneer1LP
49Annie HrabovskyRomeo1LP
511Victoria GarcesMidland Dow1LP
611Emma DrnekZeeland East1LP
712Jayden HarbertsMacomb Dakota1LP
810Natalia GuaresimoRomeo1LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
19Ava SchaferSt. Johns2LP
210Katie BerkshireGaylord2LP
312Natalie VanOtterenGrand Rapids Christian2LP
410Emma HoffmanOtsego2LP
512Mary RichmondFrankenmuth2LP
611Sadey SeyferthEast Grand Rapids2LP
711Kamryn LauingerGoodrich2LP
811Courtney BovairCarleton Airport2LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Tessa RoeLansing Catholic3LP
211Lila VolkersKent City3LP
311Kyah HoffmanStanton Central Montcalm3LP
412Mylie KellyBenzie Central3LP
511Kaya VrableCaro3LP
612Miranda McNeilMorley-Stanwood3LP
79Samantha SchroederJackson Lumen Christi3LP
812Jenna SweeneyReese3LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
19Kaylie LivingstonWhitmore Lake4LP
212Ava TeedAllen Park Cabrini4LP
311Jane MantheiPetoskey St. Michael4LP
411Grace VanderKooiMuskegon Western Mich. Christian4LP
510Carina BurchiWhitmore Lake4LP
612Madalyn AgrenJohannesburg-Lewiston4LP
79Libby SmithGobles4LP
812Isabella YeomanGenesee4LP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
110Tessa RautiolaHoughton1UP
210Maya CarlsonManistique1UP
311Monet ArgeropoulosMarquette1UP
49Eryn VeverkaMarquette1UP
510Ella FureMarquette1UP
611Marlee PlaxcoNegaunee1UP
711Katie SarauHoughton1UP
812Seere Helms-GleasonNegaunee1UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Lola KorpiIshpeming2UP
210Talya SchreiberPickford2UP
311Ella KeranenHancock2UP
411Rayna TowlesHancock2UP
510Jill BergHancock2UP
611Emma MitchellRudyard2UP
711Isabelle JohnsonBark River-Harris2UP
810Teryn FirackPickford2UP
PlaceGradeNameTeamDivisionPeninsula
112Mya GrunlundNorth Dickinson County3UP
212Kaylen ClarkNewberry3UP
312Taryn MakiDollar Bay3UP
412Kayela PutnamStephenson3UP
59Vienna PriceForest Park3UP
68Bree BesonenEwen-Trout Creek3UP
711Ewen CroteauSt. Ignace3UP
811Lily EtelamakiChassell3UP

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