2024 Mid-Season Projections: Division 4 Boys

There are 79 days of competition in Michigan’s cross country season. We’re at Day 40 right now. That’s about as halfway as you’re gonna get. As we’re halfway, we shoot past divisional rankings into mid-season regional projections.

These projections take on the same format as the rankings, just at the regional level now. Real quick:

Ratings are generated via:

• The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
• Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. To be included, a runner must have a rated race in September. There are a few exceptions to that, but the goal is to filter out the unfortunately injured folks. Also, these contain races through September 21st.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

• They account for course conditions and distance
  • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
  • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
• They don’t filter out runners that haven’t competed in awhile
• They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Is one better than the other? The only year (2021) I compared my predictions vs. athletic.net, I correctly predicted 188 of the 216 team qualifiers, a.net simulated 184. 2% difference, but I’ll take it. Last year, I had 192 of those 216 top-3 regional teams. I like my track record. I ain’t no a.net hater either, as I bet I spend more time on there than any human in the US.

Anyhow, as I’ve said on my division rankings, these are for fun. I’m positive in my writings toward everyone, you can be cool toward me. Enjoy.

Region 28

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Austin Sneed – has turned from a kid who slipped under 18 late to one that opened with a 16:46 at the Party in the Park

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Harbor Springs	27	155.2	6
2	Petoskey St. Michael	57	139.9	19
3	Mancelona	83	117.6
4	Fairview	89	112.0
5	Ellsworth	121	65.6
6	Hale	147	-1.9

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	189.2
2	12	Austin Sneed	East Jordan	187.3
3	12	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	170.9
4	12	Teddy Krieger	Harbor Springs	165.9
5	12	Russell Vandermus	Petoskey St. Michael	165.5
6	11	Cole Brege	Rogers City	162.7
7	9	Grant Corlew	Harbor Springs	160.4
8	11	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	157.7
9	10	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview	148.1
10	11	Adam Ferguson	Harbor Springs	147.9
11	9	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	145.2
12	11	Jack Sharar	Rogers City	144.3
13	11	Max Vroman	Harbor Springs	144.2
14	11	Paxton Downing	Hale	143.1
15	10	Jayden Dunnebeck	East Jordan	140.3
16	11	Cole Abney	Ellsworth	140.3
17	11	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	140.0
18	11	Nicholas Trader	Fairview	139.9
19	9	Elliot Smith	Mancelona	134.2
20	12	Jacob Chamberlain	East Jordan	132.3
21	11	Matt Waggoner	Mancelona	126.9
22	12	Tanner Major	Fairview	122.0
23	11	Daulet Karassay	Ellsworth	116.9
24	10	Donavin Reist	Mancelona	116.6
25	12	Logan McMullen	Indian River Inland Lakes	114.2

Region 29

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Grand Traverse Academy – freshman Beckett Dennis has immediately raised the Mustangs fortune, coming in as their top runner in a majority of their races, often sub-18.

Liam McCaw – at this point last year, he’d never been under 18:30. He’s been in the 17’s each time out, with a 16:55 at Buckley as well.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Mason County Eastern	59	162.2	4
2	Maple City Glen Lake	59	163.6	5
3	Grand Traverse Academy	102	139.7	16
4	Frankfort	112	132.9	24
5	Mesick	121	133.4	27
6	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	136	119.5
7	Bear Lake-Onekama	137	120.9
8	Pentwater	217	73.7
9	Traverse City Christian	224	33.5

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Kyle Redman	Mesick	198.9
2	12	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	194.7
3	12	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	193.2
4	12	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	192.4
5	10	Ty Redman	Mesick	184.8
6	10	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	178.6
7	11	Liam McCaw	Maple City Glen Lake	170.2
8	9	Lance Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	166.2
9	10	Milo Shoup	Mason County Eastern	163.6
10	12	Carroll Robotham	Frankfort	161.1
11	9	Beckett Dennis	Grand Traverse Academy	157.3
12	12	Parker Rubin	Grand Traverse Academy	156.2
13	10	Evan Keen	Leland	154.8
14	11	Keith Crompton	Frankfort	150.9
15	9	Carter Suttmann	Leland	150.8
16	11	Oliver Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	150.2
17	12	Greyson Hoeflinger	Bear Lake-Onekama	148.8
18	10	Lincoln Bailey	Maple City Glen Lake	148.4
19	9	Kaiden Lague	Mason County Eastern	148.3
20	9	Owen Jarosz	Frankfort	146.5
21	12	Elijah Bauer	Traverse City Christian	146.1
22	11	Matthew Bentley	Buckley	145.2
23	11	Cody Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	141.7
24	10	Cy Kosmowski	Mason County Eastern	140.5
25	9	Campbell Fedderman	Leland	138.3

Region 30

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart – really can’t single out one kid, as Jonah Pollatz, Noah Dubridge, and Brady Edwards have all exceeded expectations.

Camden Fager – found a breakout race at Trent Carter against many of the same kids he’ll see here. Shiny new 17:53 personal best.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	34	140.6	14
2	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	59	122.8
3	Beal City	89	103.1
4	Saginaw Arts & Science	107	92.6
5	Breckenridge	129	85.6
6	Montabella	144	74.3
7	St. Charles	181	54.6
8	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	181	41.7
9	Vestaburg	206	21.7

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge	176.5
2	11	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	175.7
3	10	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	172.2
4	12	Camden Fager	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	160.5
5	11	Jonah Pollatz	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	160.2
6	10	Rush Marsden	Fulton	159.3
7	10	Amos Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	156.3
8	12	Logan Dudley	Coleman	151.0
9	12	Cole Tilmann	Beal City	142.7
10	12	Sean O’Grady	Saginaw Nouvel	142.3
11	10	Noah Dubridge	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	136.1
12	11	Amos Miller	Saginaw Arts & Science	134.7
13	10	Trevor Dolloff	Ashley	122.7
14	10	Brady Edwards	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	122.6
15	12	Aimon Humm	Breckenridge	120.1
16	10	Zayden Buskirk	Carson City-Crystal	115.6
17	11	Jordan Weber	Beal City	112.9
18	9	Jonathan Egan	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	111.8
19	11	Conner Fenton	Beal City	108.8
20	10	Logan Whitmer	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	106.7
21	10	Jared Samyn	St. Charles	102.4
22	11	Connor Naylor	Saginaw Arts & Science	98.8
23	11	Jareth Shappee	Montabella	98.5
24	10	Payton Crawfis	Carson City-Crystal	96.4
25	10	Paul Kim	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	95.3

Region 31

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Tri-Unity Christian – mainly thanks to standout freshman Lincoln Laansma, who’s been sub-18 on all but one occasion. He even notched a 16:50 at Christian Schools.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Holland Calvary Christian	41	162.2	3
2	White Cloud	56	154.9	8
3	Tri-Unity Christian	92	140.2	18
4	Portland St. Patrick	118	127.0	26
5	Byron Center Zion Christian	159	109.2
6	Fowler	163	97.8
7	Libertas Christian	187	97.7
8	Gobles	193	94.8
9	Martin	198	91.6
10	Vermontville Maple Valley	247	68.7
11	Holton	263	52.1

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Tyler Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	184.4
2	12	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	179.1
3	9	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	176.0
4	10	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	171.4
5	12	Kaleb Canning	White Cloud	171.3
6	10	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	170.0
7	11	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick	163.4
8	11	Quentin Smith	Fowler	160.7
9	10	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian	159.4
10	10	Caleb Adkins	Holland Calvary Christian	157.8
11	10	Francis Austen	Portland St. Patrick	152.5
12	9	Brody Vantuinen	Holland Calvary Christian	152.4
13	10	Caleb Leys	White Cloud	146.8
14	11	Freddie Bierling	Byron Center Zion Christian	142.5
15	12	Wyatt Karnes	White Cloud	141.0
16	10	Riley Weed	Holland Calvary Christian	140.4
17	12	Alex Morin	Martin	137.5
18	8	Levi Oudbier	Tri-Unity Christian	137.3
19	10	Landon Miller	Fowler	137.0
20	11	Isaac Foxelster	Portland St. Patrick	136.5
21	9	Joseph Coon	White Cloud	136.4
22	8	Eli Schout	Libertas Christian	135.7
23	11	Lukas Rennells	Muskegon Catholic Central	134.7
24	9	Mason Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	134.3
25	11	David Sager	Gobles	131.4

Region 32

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Bridgman – Teddy Ippel must’ve really gone all-in over the summer, as he’s a whole new runner. Throughout much of 2023, a mid-19 guy. All through 2024? Low-17’s on the cusp of the 16’s.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Kalamazoo Hackett	38	162.6	7
2	Bridgman	47	149.7	10
3	Three Oaks River Valley	87	122.2
4	White Pigeon	90	116.8
5	Athens	116	91.4
6	Eau Claire	169	48.2
7	Colon	176	42.8

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	209.6
2	11	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	187.8
3	11	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	186.6
4	12	Teddy Ippel	Bridgman	184.1
5	12	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	181.6
6	12	Ben Iobe	Mendon	163.2
7	11	Jesse Fielis	White Pigeon	161.4
8	12	Alexander Dumont	Kalamazoo Hackett	154.4
9	10	August Johnson	New Buffalo	150.5
10	9	Joseph Edwards	New Buffalo	150.3
11	12	Ryan Blankenship	Eau Claire	150.0
12	10	Kellen Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	146.9
13	11	Ethan O’Connor	Athens	145.1
14	10	Elias Baldwin	Decatur	136.9
15	12	Ethan DeVries	Bridgman	136.5
16	11	Beck Ytterberg	Bridgman	125.6
17	10	Max Barron	Tekonsha	123.4
18	10	Jay Bronsink	Athens	123.1
19	12	Owen Nofs	Battle Creek St. Philip	122.6
20	10	Kyron Christner	Mendon	122.2
21	12	Jack Williams	White Pigeon	121.1
22	12	Carter Ernsberger	Bridgman	120.8
23	11	Clark Douglas	Bridgman	119.2
24	11	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	116.9
25	11	David Lane	White Pigeon	116.9

Region 33

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Whitmore Lake – the guys apparently wanted to share the glory with their girls. Freshman addition Nolan Collins has helped, recently hitting a 17:49 at Goodells.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Whitmore Lake	44	154.9	9
2	Dansville	68	145.8	12
3	Webberville	105	121.6
4	Lansing Christian	120	114.4
5	Novi Christian Academy	142	105.5
6	Livingston Christian	163	95.1
7	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	166	90.2
8	Genesee Christian Academy	188	76.4
9	Byron	189	78.8
10	Morrice	267	36.3
11	Genesee	288	-20.7

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Theodore Davis	Dansville	199.7
2	11	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	190.7
3	11	Reuben Jiran	Novi Christian Academy	158.9
4	9	Nolan Collins	Whitmore Lake	157.8
5	11	Josiah Johncox	Byron	156.4
6	11	Ben Young	Lansing Christian	153.3
7	10	Ayden Mayr	Dansville	152.1
8	9	Anderson Karkau	Dansville	151.3
9	12	Aaron Crittenden	Potterville	151.1
10	11	Gavin Howery	Webberville	147.2
11	9	Leo Weaver	Whitmore Lake	146.2
12	11	Ethan West	Webberville	144.2
13	11	Dan Birmingham	Whitmore Lake	143.7
14	9	Nathan West	Webberville	140.9
15	11	Nathan Camilleri	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	138.7
16	11	Ian Ferguson	Genesee Christian Academy	138.2
17	12	Nate Dillon	Whitmore Lake	136.0
18	11	Matias Greve	Lansing Christian	134.6
19	10	Benjamin Fox	Whitmore Lake	134.4
20	12	Samuel Hubbard	Livingston Christian	134.2
21	10	Eric Junker	Whitmore Lake	132.0
22	9	Jackson Onofre	Novi Christian Academy	127.1
23	9	Randolf Schneider	Dansville	123.6
24	9	Nolan Stadel	Genesee Christian Academy	118.2
25	12	Karl Wegner	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	116.3

Region 34

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Manchester – in the D4 realm, one addition can play a major role. Senior Jesse Sangster’s first season in the sport has helped the Dutchmen quite a bit. Nothing spectacular, but a steady string of low-19/high-18 performances gives Manchester a little help in the depth department.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Hillsdale Academy	19	175.2	1
2	Manchester	60	138.3	20
3	Concord	87	112.7
4	Jackson Preparatory	99	100.8
5	Adrian Lenawee Christian	110	95.2

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	190.0
2	11	Grant Johnson	Manchester	177.7
3	12	Reece Poole	Hillsdale Academy	177.5
4	11	Luke Molenkamp	Hillsdale Academy	173.6
5	11	Henry Lindley	Hillsdale Academy	168.7
6	10	Timothy Gaebler	Hillsdale Academy	166.1
7	12	Joel Lange	Adrian Lenawee Christian	163.5
8	10	Ryan Miller	Hillsdale Academy	161.7
9	11	James Rahe	Hillsdale Academy	161.0
10	12	Beau Shaffer	Morenci	151.8
11	12	Jameson Watson	Britton Deerfield	145.8
12	11	Paul Herendeen	Concord	137.5
13	12	Jesse Sangster	Manchester	135.5
14	10	Alec Dodak	Manchester	132.2
15	11	Dallas Swaenepoel	Vandercook Lake	129.7
16	12	Diego BoCole	Jackson Preparatory	127.9
17	11	Corey Dubnicki	Jackson Preparatory	127.8
18	11	Maddox Hutchinson	Concord	127.6
19	12	Logan Mishaw	Jackson Preparatory	124.5
20	10	Michael Navitskis	Manchester	124.3
21	10	Harper Doyle	Manchester	121.7
22	12	Wyatt Berger	Morenci	113.7
23	10	Noah Lucas	Addison	112.5
24	12	Dustin Hamilton	Concord	111.9
25	10	Ethan Hittle	Manchester	102.1

Region 35

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Dryden – It took nearly the entire season for the sophomore version of Logan Romain to slip into the 17’s. On Saturday’s warm day at Goodells, he got there a little earlier. Levi Fitchett continually improving, Noah Hall summoning that Tigers spirit, and now you’ve got a team bearing down on a top-10 ranking.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Dryden	53	142.4	11
2	Unionville-Sebewaing	58	140.9	13
3	Harbor Beach	62	142.1	15
4	Marlette	76	129.8	25
5	Mayville	134	97.9
6	Deckerville	150	91.0
7	Brown City	173	66.7

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	189.1
2	12	Zack Becker	Unionville-Sebewaing	173.1
3	11	Carson Burgess	Brown City	169.5
4	12	Matthew Pasiak	Harbor Beach	162.8
5	9	Levi Fitchett	Dryden	160.3
6	11	Logan Romain	Dryden	158.6
7	10	Owen Wruble	Harbor Beach	150.7
8	10	Brennan Robinson	Kingston	148.5
9	12	Turlough Bennett	Marlette	146.3
10	11	Michael Walsh	Ubly	146.3
11	11	Nino Perna	Marlette	144.5
12	12	Joel Enos	Mayville	144.3
13	12	Isaac Bignall	Unionville-Sebewaing	142.7
14	10	Thijs Van Rijn	Kingston	135.2
15	10	Kai Fisher	Memphis	135.1
16	12	Noah Hall	Dryden	133.7
17	9	Brendan Aeder	Unionville-Sebewaing	132.3
18	11	Nick Abromaitis	Dryden	131.8
19	9	Lukas Brown	Unionville-Sebewaing	130.8
20	12	Sean Finnigan	Dryden	127.8
21	9	Zachary Crumby	Unionville-Sebewaing	125.8
22	12	Anthony Rosario	Marlette	123.5
23	12	Caden Meyer	Marlette	121.8
24	12	Mark Bulgrien	Harbor Beach	118.8
25	11	Evan Gobie	Deckerville	117.6

Region 36

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Team Depth – the original thought was that we’d have three teams competing for two spots. Now it’s appearing like four-five competing for those two. Cardinal Mooney, Oakland Christian, Gabriel Richard, and Lutheran Westland are all ranked between 17 and 23.

Simon Reed – the summer preview didn’t capture Simon, who ran for a public school in middle school. The ratings themselves do capture a consistent kid who’s been in the low-18’s regardless of course or conditions. He’s got Plymouth Christian Academy on the outside of that above group.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Royal Oak Shrine	39	169.1	2
2	Riverview Gabriel Richard	98	137.5	22
3	Lutheran Westland	102	137.9	17
4	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	105	136.8	21
5	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	112	133.8	23
6	Plymouth Christian Academy	129	117.6
7	Allen Park Cabrini	152	110.4
8	Austin Catholic	174	82.5
9	New Haven Merritt Academy	242	-7.7

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	204.4
2	10	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard	185.0
3	10	Vern Clyne	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	172.3
4	11	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	172.2
5	11	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	169.4
6	9	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy	165.3
7	11	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland	163.7
8	11	Rich Fanti	Riverview Gabriel Richard	163.4
9	11	Andrew Lopez	Royal Oak Shrine	162.1
10	11	Caesar Soma	Royal Oak Shrine	159.4
11	12	Tom Shafer	Lutheran Westland	157.7
12	11	Carter Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	156.4
13	12	Evan Jacobs	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	152.6
14	12	Joseph Kemp	Royal Oak Shrine	150.0
15	12	Nico DiPonio	Austin Catholic	146.7
16	10	Finn Kneer	New Haven Merritt Academy	145.6
17	11	Dominic Barretto	Riverview Gabriel Richard	145.5
18	11	Andrew Rosso	Austin Catholic	143.0
19	9	Liam Knuth	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	140.2
20	10	Aaron Lenn	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	139.4
21	9	Barron Denham	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	137.1
22	12	Charlie Radziszewski	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	136.1
23	10	Uzziel Thomassen	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	132.3
24	9	Will Bernacki	Royal Oak Shrine	131.0
25	11	Seth Witte	Lutheran Westland	130.6