2024 Mid-Season Projections: Division 3 Boys

There are 79 days of competition in Michigan’s cross country season. We’re at Day 41 right now. That’s about as halfway as you’re gonna get. As we’re halfway, we shoot past divisional rankings into mid-season regional projections.

These projections take on the same format as the rankings, just at the regional level now. Real quick:

Ratings are generated via:

• The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
• Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. To be included, a runner must have a rated race in September. There are a few exceptions to that, but the goal is to filter out the unfortunately injured folks. Also, these contain races through September 21st.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

• They account for course conditions and distance
  • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
  • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
• They don’t filter out runners that haven’t competed in awhile
• They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Is one better than the other? The only year (2021) I compared my predictions vs. athletic.net, I correctly predicted 188 of the 216 team qualifiers, a.net simulated 184. 2% difference, but I’ll take it. Last year, I had 192 of those 216 top-3 regional teams. I like my track record. I ain’t no a.net hater either, as I bet I spend more time on there than any human in the US.

Anyhow, as I’ve said on my division rankings, these are for fun. I’m positive in my writings toward everyone, you can be cool toward me. Enjoy.

Region 19

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Ryder Hopkins – if you just compare his freshman to sophomore years, you’ll find significant differences. 19:05 to 16:36 at East Jordan, 18:53 to 17:06 at Petoskey. What’s to come?

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Traverse City St. Francis	20	191.3	1
2	Charlevoix	62	172.5	11
3	Clare	101	154.1	26
4	Roscommon	147	139.3
5	Elk Rapids	172	129.8
6	Kalkaska	198	118.3
7	Boyne City	203	118.0
8	Standish-Sterling	209	118.0
9	Cheboygan	218	111.6
10	Grayling	221	112.3
11	Harrison	311	82.7
12	Tawas	332	71.8
13	Farwell	333	73.2

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	205.4
2	10	William Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	197.8
3	10	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	192.1
4	12	Owen Read	Traverse City St. Francis	186.1
5	12	Robby Myler	Traverse City St. Francis	185.7
6	10	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	184.4
7	11	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	183.1
8	12	Joseph Carlson	Traverse City St. Francis	181.7
9	12	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	180.1
10	11	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	176.2
11	12	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	171.5
12	12	David Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	171.5
13	12	Anthony Cole	Roscommon	170.1
14	10	Connor Schmidt	Clare	168.7
15	10	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	162.5
16	11	Coltrane Paryani	Kalkaska	158.5
17	9	Owen McGlone	Kalkaska	154.4
18	11	Clayton Peacock	Clare	152.2
19	11	Carson Kiefer	Cheboygan	151.2
20	11	Neiko Ketchum	Clare	150.6
21	10	Jake Klemmer	Roscommon	150.5
22	12	Max Ward	Elk Rapids	149.9
23	12	Tristan Demlow	Grayling	149.9
24	12	Caidan Gaskill	Clare	149.7
25	10	Sutton Klaus	Clare	149.4

Region 20

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Jackson Schaub – prior to this season, his best finish in a NWC Jamboree was a 20spot during his freshman year. In two of ‘em this fall, he’s grabbed 2^nd and 4^th place.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Hart	59	161.5	16
2	Benzie Central	63	162.4	17
3	Reed City	63	168.7	15
4	Lake City	96	155.2	23
5	Leroy Pine River	183	132.8
6	Manton	185	133.0
7	Manistee	220	123.3
8	Hesperia	254	108.1
9	Shelby	259	99.2
10	Kingsley	263	112.6
11	Remus Chippewa Hills	278	104.6
12	McBain	303	80.0
13	Morley-Stanwood	317	72.7
14	Mason County Central	336	74.3

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Gus Rohde	Reed City	202.8
2	11	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	188.0
3	11	Jackson Schaub	Benzie Central	177.4
4	11	Caiden Helsel	Lake City	174.6
5	10	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	174.2
6	9	Silas Ackley	Hart	171.4
7	11	Paul Saladin	Reed City	170.8
8	9	Eli VanPoortfliet	Benzie Central	168.9
9	10	Cage Edingfield	Benzie Central	166.9
10	11	Jack Slotman	Hart	164.5
11	11	Connor Helsel	Lake City	163.7
12	12	Jacob Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	163.5
13	9	Tanner Dozier	Reed City	163.1
14	9	Abraham Kiaunis	Reed City	162.9
15	9	Grant Ackley	Hart	160.3
16	10	Pascal Miller	Hart	156.1
17	10	Mason Opalewski	Hart	155.4
18	10	Carson Ackley	Hart	154.9
19	10	Aiden Schaner	Hart	154.2
20	10	Nathan Lenington	Leroy Pine River	152.9
21	12	Benjamin DeRidder	Benzie Central	151.2
22	11	Owen Butkovich	Lake City	150.9
23	11	Iziquiel Picon	Shelby	150.2
24	11	Ethan Baker	Leroy Pine River	149.6
25	11	Jack Helsel	Manton	148.9

Region 21

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Holland Black River – over the summer, appeared to be in contention for 3^rd, as of late September, the Green n’ Black are in the drivers seat. A main reason has been the rise of freshman Casper Banner, who debuted with a few 18:0x’s, now is adjusting and subtracting time into the mid-17’s.

David Castrejon – just as Schaub, has shown a tremendous drop in league performance. Held down 31^st place in the CSAA during his freshman year, opened with a 7^th place finish last week.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	43	175.0	5
2	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	66	167.4	12
3	Holland Black River	91	161.1	18
4	Montague	119	157.0	22
5	The Potter’s House	131	153.6
6	Olivet	175	142.9
7	Parchment	211	137.4
8	Saranac	217	136.6
9	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	236	132.1
10	Kent City	278	124.4
11	Grandville Calvin Christian	303	119.6
12	Ravenna	331	108.9
13	Newaygo	344	91.2
14	North Muskegon	366	51.9
15	Delton-Kellogg	381	84.9

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Levi Kamps	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	197.1
2	12	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	193.8
3	10	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	180.3
4	11	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	178.6
5	11	Noah Raeth	Montague	178.4
6	10	Micah Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	176.9
7	10	Barrett Nance	North Muskegon	172.7
8	12	Tyler N. Kooienga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	172.1
9	12	Luke Dykstra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	171.3
10	10	David Castrejon	Newaygo	167.3
11	9	Casper Banner	Holland Black River	166.7
12	12	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	166.4
13	12	Alexander Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	165.2
14	12	Elliot Cole	Parchment	165.1
15	9	Nolan Kessler	Montague	163.5
16	10	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	161.1
17	10	Josiah Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	158.8
18	11	Reuben Anderson	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	157.9
19	10	Levi Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	157.3
20	10	Caleb Swiney	The Potter’s House	156.0
21	11	Max Mcdowell	Olivet	155.0
22	11	Kaden Mingerink	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	154.9
23	11	Isaac Johnson	Holland Black River	153.6
24	10	Easton Mccloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	153.5
25	10	Landen Gessner	Olivet	153.0

Region 22

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Jackson Bowman – has shown a steadiness beyond his years. Night race opener? 17:16. Conference race? 17:23. Long drive + hills? 17:19. Humid morning? 17:03. Down the line, whichever the conditions may be, he’ll be in a good spot.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Saugatuck	37	173.8	4
2	Buchanan	55	168.9	10
3	Union City	96	159.6	21
4	Centreville	162	139.3
5	Schoolcraft	165	137.3
6	Watervliet	198	129.3
7	Constantine	202	126.8
8	Bangor	210	125.2
9	Galesburg-Augusta	237	120.6
10	Bloomingdale	252	114.3
11	Hartford	255	114.3
12	Coloma	310	93.4
13	Fennville	378	71.5
14	Kalamazoo Christian	403	-9.8
15	Comstock	440	24.6

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	186.2
2	11	Ben Gautsche	Union City	181.6
3	9	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck	180.4
4	11	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	179.8
5	12	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	177.6
6	10	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	176.1
7	11	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	175.1
8	10	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	172.1
9	10	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	171.8
10	11	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	170.0
11	11	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	168.7
12	12	Jason Shoop	Union City	167.5
13	11	Alessandro Avila	Constantine	163.7
14	10	John Keser	Buchanan	162.5
15	12	Carlos Ruiz	Hartford	161.2
16	12	Ethan Miller	Centreville	160.3
17	12	Carter Stevens	Galesburg-Augusta	160.1
18	12	Landen Bouchard	Galesburg-Augusta	158.0
19	12	Robbie King	Constantine	157.7
20	12	Coy Weinberg	Buchanan	157.1
21	9	Ashton Skinner	Saugatuck	152.9
22	9	Ira Brown	Saugatuck	152.2
23	12	Zack Mitchell	Kalamazoo Christian	152.0
24	12	Tyler Caruso	Bangor	151.5
25	12	Malachi Payne	Union City	150.9

Region 23

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Cooper Flick – over the summer, received a little flack from the Comet faithful as to their ranking. Flick doing his best to prove those words right, constantly in contention to split a sub-17. Much quicker compared to his sophomore year, where at this point he’d just hit the 17’s for the first time ever.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	39	184.0	2
2	Hanover-Horton	63	173.8	6
3	Jonesville	81	168.4	13
4	Onsted	117	157.0	27
5	Brooklyn Columbia Central	147	147.3
6	Sand Creek	172	141.4
7	Bronson	220	127.3
8	Homer	256	99.7
9	Quincy	266	107.0
10	Napoleon	267	93.1
11	Hillsdale	273	102.3
12	Hudson	300	88.6
13	Springport	340	69.4
14	Michigan Center	411

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Mitchell Hiatt	Onsted	203.9
2	12	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	203.0
3	12	Leo Swager	Jackson Lumen Christi	194.7
4	12	Landen Boulis	Hanover-Horton	193.5
5	10	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	189.7
6	10	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	183.1
7	10	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	182.6
8	11	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	180.8
9	11	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	178.9
10	11	John Edler	Homer	173.1
11	10	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	172.8
12	11	Zach Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	171.9
13	10	Silas Daniels	Sand Creek	169.1
14	10	Collin Fucile	Jonesville	168.6
15	10	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	168.6
16	12	James Bayes	Onsted	166.2
17	10	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton	164.7
18	9	Chris Durfey	Onsted	161.1
19	12	Isaac St. John	Hudson	161.1
20	11	Karl Swager	Jackson Lumen Christi	159.8
21	9	Ashton Potwin	Jonesville	159.2
22	12	Jack Gorton	Brooklyn Columbia Central	159.1
23	9	Wyatt Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	156.4
24	10	Nicklas Holmes	Onsted	155.4
25	12	Owen Lambarth	Brooklyn Columbia Central	154.5

Region 24

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Kyler Fertig – has been one of the primary reasons that the Hornets are projected in the top spot. Around this time last year, he found his mid-17 groove, times he ran at both Portage and State. He’s already reached as low as 16:57, so I’m pumped to see what’s next.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Stanton Central Montcalm	47	176.1	9
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	49	172.2	7
3	Bath	76	162.1	19
4	Laingsburg	124	144.0
5	Otisville LakeVille	130	128.0
6	Ovid-Elsie	150	133.9
7	New Lothrop	182	118.6
8	Montrose	188	119.6
9	Chesaning	200	115.4
10	Perry	258	84.7
11	Mt Morris	341	-24.8

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	205.7
2	11	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	191.4
3	11	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	190.6
4	9	Owen Poppema	Bath	188.6
5	11	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm	182.4
6	12	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	179.0
7	10	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	178.5
8	10	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	177.8
9	10	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	175.5
10	10	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	172.2
11	9	Wyatt Roberts	Otisville LakeVille	171.7
12	9	Tate Smith	Bath	170.8
13	12	Clay Powell	Ovid-Elsie	167.2
14	9	Johnny Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	165.3
15	10	River Fox	Bath	159.2
16	12	Jason Weber	Pewamo-Westphalia	156.2
17	12	Connor Kennedy	Otisville LakeVille	155.1
18	12	Lieu Vincke	New Lothrop	154.6
19	10	Nolan Mitchell	Pewamo-Westphalia	154.1
20	11	Evan Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	148.6
21	12	Luke Skidmore	Bath	147.6
22	12	James Kelly	Ovid-Elsie	147.2
23	11	Joshua Miller	Ovid-Elsie	145.3
24	9	Mario Baker	Bath	144.1
25	9	Eli Hobson	Montrose	143.8

Region 25

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Midland Bullock Creek – who’s looking to make it back to back with team qualifiers. Marshall Brandt has stepped up significantly. He’s already closing in on the 16’s, racing to a 17:01 in his opener and one second slower at Northwood. At this point in 2023, he hadn’t gone under 18:30.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Ithaca	29	183.0	3
2	Sanford-Meridian	86	156.4	24
3	Midland Bullock Creek	98	151.3
4	St. Louis	102	149.8
5	Pigeon-Laker	111	143.9
6	Reese	120	141.0
7	Cass City	178	117.4
8	Carrollton	232	90.8
9	Millington	247	88.0
10	Hemlock	257	80.8
11	Vassar	307

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Landen Styka	Ithaca	202.7
2	12	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca	196.6
3	12	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	192.1
4	10	Luke Herron	Caro	190.2
5	12	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian	189.9
6	10	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	183.1
7	12	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek	180.6
8	11	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca	179.4
9	11	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	175.5
10	12	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	169.8
11	10	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca	168.2
12	11	Thad Whitmore	Ithaca	168.0
13	10	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	164.7
14	9	Remyngton Clish	Sanford-Meridian	162.7
15	12	Colin Kuhn	St. Louis	162.5
16	12	Brent DeSaegher	Ithaca	160.2
17	10	Xander Huckins	Reese	159.9
18	11	Alex Rodriguez	St. Louis	157.8
19	11	Wesley Haines	Reese	156.9
20	9	Christopher Shemes	Ithaca	155.6
21	11	Logan Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	154.8
22	12	Jacob Moore	Caro	154.3
23	9	Kale Miklovic	Pigeon-Laker	151.2
24	10	Mayson McIntosh	Caro	150.5
25	11	James Schroder	Sanford-Meridian	147.8

Region 26

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Nole Lorenzen – not only one of the better freshmen in Region 26 or D3, one of the top youngsters in the state. Hasn’t notched a win just yet, but hit a sub-17 at Holly in the heat.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Lansing Catholic	29	171.2	8
2	Leslie	73	158.8	20
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	102	152.6
4	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	111	146.7
5	Algonac	130	139.3
6	Almont	165	127.6
7	Clawson	225	105.9
8	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	247	97.3
9	Stockbridge	251	91.8
10	Marine City	281	59.9
11	Charyl Stockwell Academy	286	78.7
12	New Haven	318	25.8
13	Detroit Osborn	409	-96.1

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	9	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	188.3
2	11	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic	181.8
3	10	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	172.3
4	11	Julian Walker	Algonac	170.9
5	9	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic	170.8
6	10	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	170.0
7	9	Jack Songer	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	170.0
8	10	William Gancer	Stockbridge	169.6
9	10	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic	165.6
10	12	Joseph Treadwell	Lansing Catholic	165.3
11	10	Finn Korte	Lansing Catholic	163.5
12	9	Carson Potter	Lansing Catholic	162.6
13	11	Owen Beindit	Algonac	160.8
14	10	Matthew Killeen	Leslie	159.6
15	10	Cooper Schmelter	Leslie	156.5
16	9	Oscar Wordell	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	156.5
17	12	Jose Domecq	Leslie	155.4
18	11	Henry Beck	Ann Arbor Greenhills	155.0
19	10	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills	153.8
20	11	Parth Ashok	Ann Arbor Greenhills	153.6
21	11	Grason Weber	Leslie	152.6
22	12	Mason Stranahan	Ann Arbor Greenhills	151.1
23	11	Nico Aagesen	Ann Arbor Greenhills	149.5
24	10	Colton Grzyb	Almont	141.1
25	12	Gavin Campbell	Almont	140.6

Region 27

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central – and it hasn’t even been who I expected over the summer. Two freshmen, Christian Craanen and Fin Totten, have been their top-2 boys. Craanen himself is being established as one of the better 9^th graders in the state.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Flat Rock	51	169.9	14
2	Erie Mason	76	154.8	25
3	Monroe St. Mary CC	97	153.6
4	Blissfield	100	152.0
5	Adrian Madison	138	143.9
6	Grass Lake	143	139.3
7	Monroe Jefferson	152	137.0
8	Clinton	164	134.7
9	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	240	111.0
10	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	269	77.3
11	Ida	278	79.6

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	196.1
2	12	Nathan Vargo	Flat Rock	185.3
3	9	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC	184.4
4	12	Ian Waddell	Blissfield	182.4
5	11	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	178.9
6	11	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison	178.9
7	12	Austin Sulier	Erie Mason	173.1
8	12	Gabe Manchester	Clinton	170.0
9	12	Parker Campbell	Erie Mason	162.1
10	11	Luke Masserant	Monroe Jefferson	158.6
11	9	Fin Totten	Monroe St. Mary CC	158.2
12	9	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield	155.8
13	11	Luke Stanley	Ida	154.9
14	10	Joseph Colaluca	Erie Mason	153.6
15	12	Chase Missler	Monroe St. Mary CC	153.3
16	9	Noah Sills	Blissfield	151.1
17	12	Adam Brodie	Flat Rock	151.0
18	12	Andrew Hintz	Monroe Jefferson	149.9
19	11	Connor Sherwood	Grass Lake	149.7
20	11	Paul McClure	Adrian Madison	147.3
21	10	Zack Buttigieg	Grass Lake	146.4
22	11	Jackson Carner	Erie Mason	143.4
23	12	Eric Ramsey	Clinton	141.9
24	9	Caleb Healey	Erie Mason	141.5
25	12	Kevin Roberts	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	138.6