2024 Mid-Season Projections: Division 4 Girls

There are 79 days of competition in Michigan’s cross country season. We’re at Day 41 right now. That’s about as halfway as you’re gonna get. As we’re halfway, we shoot past divisional rankings into mid-season regional projections.

These projections take on the same format as the rankings, just at the regional level now. Real quick:

Ratings are generated via:

• The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
• Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. To be included, a runner must have a rated race in September. There are a few exceptions to that, but the goal is to filter out the unfortunately injured folks. Also, these contain races through September 21st.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

• They account for course conditions and distance
  • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
  • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
• They don’t filter out runners that haven’t competed in awhile
• They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Is one better than the other? The only year (2021) I compared my predictions vs. athletic.net, I correctly predicted 188 of the 216 team qualifiers, a.net simulated 184. 2% difference, but I’ll take it. Last year, I had 192 of those 216 top-3 regional teams. I like my track record. I ain’t no a.net hater either, as I bet I spend more time on there than any human in the US.

Anyhow, as I’ve said on my division rankings, these are for fun. I’m positive in my writings toward everyone, you can be cool toward me. Enjoy.

Region 28

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Genevieve Rodham – just ran a good 65 seconds faster than last year at the Petoskey Invite, her 22:01 placing her fourth on the Ram squad.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Harbor Springs	18	92.6	2
2	Rogers City	51	37.3	23
3	East Jordan	75
4	Mancelona	100

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	158.4
2	12	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	128.4
3	10	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	119.3
4	10	Harlie Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	108.7
5	12	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	99.7
6	10	Avery Langlois	Rogers City	87.1
7	10	Genevieve Rodham	Harbor Springs	85.4
8	10	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	84.0
9	12	Tara Shouldice	Harbor Springs	81.1
10	11	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	77.5
11	10	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	73.4
12	9	Fenlynn Johnson	Rogers City	71.4
13	12	McKenzie Bowman	Harbor Springs	65.3
14	12	Elke Knauf	East Jordan	60.7
15	10	Julia Clarke	Harbor Springs	51.5
16	11	Taylor Hefele	Rogers City	43.0
17	10	Avary Bearden	East Jordan	31.5
18	12	Bailey Ray	Mancelona	23.9
19	9	Mea Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael	15.4
20	11	Ella Nolan	Petoskey St. Michael	14.0
21	9	Keri Coolman	Rogers City	5.8
22	10	Isabella Hocking	Bellaire	-0.3
23	9	Juliet Inman	East Jordan	-3.1
24	10	Morgan Reh	Bellaire	-7.5
25	12	Claudia DeLeo	Gaylord St. Mary	-9.3

Region 29

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Maple City Glen Lake – aided by their freshmen additions. Alayna Ottenbacher and Lili Magazzi placed in the top-15 at yesterday’s NWC Jamboree, helping the Lakers earn a 2^nd place finish.

Amelia McKinney – quick learner for a 10^th grader. Took Amelia just three races to find herself on the cusp of a sub-20.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Grand Traverse Academy	54	73.0	9
2	Maple City Glen Lake	83	52.3	16
3	Buckley	84	53.4	17
4	Leland	94	34.9	21
5	Mason County Eastern	110	36.3	24
6	Bear Lake-Onekama	119	22.2
7	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	135	11.9

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Ella Knudsen	Leland	116.3
2	10	Addy Zeller	Bear Lake-Onekama	108.6
3	10	Amelia McKinney	Grand Traverse Academy	101.3
4	9	Carmella Julian	Maple City Glen Lake	100.4
5	10	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	91.4
6	9	Sophie Grinage	Leland	90.8
7	11	Addison Jarosz	Frankfort	83.1
8	12	Emily Alaimo	Maple City Glen Lake	79.9
9	11	Leire Mahiques	Buckley	77.9
10	12	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	72.7
11	9	Claire Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	72.1
12	11	Natalie Brown	Bear Lake-Onekama	71.5
13	10	Natalie Burpee	Leland	71.1
14	10	Bailey Stephen	Grand Traverse Academy	64.0
15	10	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy	63.0
16	10	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley	58.8
17	11	Kinsey Peer	Buckley	57.7
18	11	Alyssa Spicer	Mesick	56.6
19	9	Alayna Ottenbacher	Maple City Glen Lake	56.0
20	10	Brailyn Johnson	Mason County Eastern	51.8
21	10	Bailey Case	Pentwater	49.8
22	11	Shenoah Collier	Grand Traverse Academy	45.3
23	11	Willa Roth	Frankfort	43.8
24	9	Lili Migazzi	Maple City Glen Lake	41.9
25	10	Addison Malburg	Mason County Eastern	41.6

Region 30

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Brianna Locke – the Locke’s are no stranger to cross success, Brianna being no different than Kaylee. She’s made the State Finals each of the past two years and has knocked more than 40 sec. off her junior best.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Breckenridge	26	90.7	4
2	Vestaburg	53	73.1	12
3	Beal City	73	49.3	18
4	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	103	26.9
5	St. Charles	119	11.5
6	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	146
7	Montabella	191

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Abigail Davis	Vestaburg	144.2
2	11	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	116.2
3	12	Danica Aldrich	Breckenridge	102.9
4	12	Brianna Locke	Beal City	97.1
5	10	Nolee Leppert	Beal City	83.7
6	12	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	82.1
7	12	Nataly Vine	Breckenridge	82.0
8	9	Maizy Matthews	Breckenridge	70.3
9	12	Mickiah Allbee	Vestaburg	67.7
10	12	Jessica Penrod	Vestaburg	62.7
11	9	Piper Schultz	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	61.7
12	10	Jessica Stouten	Vestaburg	56.5
13	11	Olive Wakefield	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	54.7
14	12	Lilly Leppert	Beal City	54.0
15	9	Skylar Maclennan	Fulton	50.6
16	10	Kaylie McCracken	Carson City-Crystal	49.2
17	11	Emma McCarty	Carson City-Crystal	48.2
18	11	Kylo Riedel	Breckenridge	45.1
19	12	Landry Gomez	St. Charles	42.9
20	12	Sydney Leslie	Saginaw Nouvel	41.9
21	12	Alexis Graham	St. Charles	38.7
22	9	Taylor Wills	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	37.8
23	11	Laura Bigard	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	37.6
24	9	Nevaeh Parker	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	36.9
25	12	Areyel Weiss	Breckenridge	35.1

Region 31

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Martin – last fall, we had one race from Sara Schipper, a 25:11 at Allendale’s regional. Thus far in her sophomore year, she’s dropped under that mark on three separate occasions.

Madelyn Sillman – hurdler and mid-distance runner for the traditionally great Fowler track team, now getting after it in cross country. Great candidate to make it to MIS as an individual.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Gobles	24	84.8	7
2	Martin	41	58.7	15
3	Holland Calvary Christian	60	31.8	27
4	Holton	102

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Libby Smith	Gobles	141.1
2	12	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	106.9
3	10	Veyda Conley	Martin	105.9
4	10	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles	105.3
5	12	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-Unity Christian	82.2
6	11	Madison Cooley	Gobles	73.0
7	9	Zoe Fabing	Fowler	68.6
8	11	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	60.9
9	12	Emily King	Martin	57.3
10	10	Ava DeYoung	Gobles	56.2
11	12	Madelyn Sillman	Fowler	56.0
12	10	Sara Schipper	Martin	52.7
13	10	Marian Davlin	Portland St. Patrick	52.0
14	12	Zoie Wood	Gobles	48.4
15	9	Laura Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	47.9
16	11	Olivia Thelen	Fowler	47.5
17	9	Allison Rodgers	Martin	47.0
18	9	Mikayla Goebel	White Cloud	46.6
19	11	Alison Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	45.2
20	9	Addison Tomsic	Gobles	38.5
21	9	DuRae Sage	Martin	30.7
22	12	Olivia Laninga	Holland Calvary Christian	29.8
23	12	Aubrey Goyings	Holton	24.4
24	10	Kayden Jager	Martin	7.7
25	8	Evelyn Hop	Libertas Christian	-20.7

Region 32

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Melanie Warren – has continued where she left off. Junior year ended with an All-Region finish and a good streak of mid-21 efforts. Senior year has consisted of a bunch of low-21 performances, including a 21:01 on the hot Holly hills.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Bridgman	26	87.9	5
2	Kalamazoo Hackett	30	81.9	6
3	White Pigeon	94
4	Three Oaks River Valley	103
5	Decatur	136

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	114.3
2	12	Presley Allen	Mendon	111.4
3	12	Melanie Warren	Bridgman	105.0
4	11	Rowan Allen	Mendon	102.7
5	10	Brie Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	96.8
6	12	Clara Fast	Bridgman	92.3
7	11	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	90.0
8	9	Anna Howell	Bridgman	82.1
9	12	Abby Ulbrich	Kalamazoo Hackett	77.9
10	11	Kate Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	72.6
11	12	Emily Howell	Bridgman	70.0
12	9	Kaylin Pinkowski	Bridgman	61.3
13	9	Delaney McBride	Kalamazoo Hackett	47.9
14	9	Abigail Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	34.0
15	10	Emmy Nofs	Battle Creek St. Philip	32.4
16	9	Alexa Clark	Bridgman	27.2
17	12	Rachel Schelstraete	White Pigeon	17.9
18	10	Ella Hendrixson	Three Oaks River Valley	12.6
19	10	Helen Donner	Three Oaks River Valley	10.9
20	12	Maria Bronsink	Athens	0.1
21	11	Katelyn Gillen	Kalamazoo Hackett	-3.0
22	12	Jamielynn Delarye	White Pigeon	-13.4
23	10	Sarah Stemaly	Athens	-15.4
24	12	Denisse Martinez-Vanegas	Eau Claire	-35.9
25	11	Rachel Byler	White Pigeon	-41.6

Region 33

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Everest Collegiate – a transformation from Susan Nedwick, turning from a 25+ min. girl to one that just blasted through 23:00 at Holly. Add in freshman Allison Schmitt quickly moving into the 22’s and you’ve got some Mountaineers hoping to return to MIS.

Brooke Sonnenberg – who moved into the 20’s for the first time ever in early September.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Whitmore Lake	25	107.1	1
2	Lansing Christian	71	59.1	14
3	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	81	46.7	20
4	Genesee Christian Academy	101	32.7	26
5	Livingston Christian	133
6	Novi Christian Academy	147
7	Webberville	168

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake	159.2
2	11	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	120.1
3	11	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	119.6
4	11	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	111.9
5	12	Brooke Sonnenberg	Genesee Christian Academy	99.4
6	10	Adrienne Mitchell	Lansing Christian	90.1
7	11	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	85.7
8	10	Susan Nedwick	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	72.8
9	9	Madison Markowicz	Novi Christian Academy	72.1
10	9	Allison Schmitt	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	70.6
11	12	Autumn Reynolds	Potterville	63.0
12	9	Malynda Lambros	Whitmore Lake	58.6
13	10	Caroline Darrah	Whitmore Lake	57.7
14	12	Isabella Nelson-Daniels	Whitmore Lake	56.5
15	9	Gabriella Wood	Lansing Christian	55.8
16	11	Juliette Tallon	Lansing Christian	55.1
17	10	Annie Wernet	Lansing Christian	53.8
18	11	Alaina Driver	Potterville	49.2
19	11	Tori Ferguson	Genesee Christian Academy	46.7
20	12	Isabella Page	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	45.2
21	12	Adriana Fandino	Novi Christian Academy	44.8
22	10	Makenna Bush	Lansing Christian	40.8
23	12	Maria Saad	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	39.2
24	9	Ariana Stewart	Genesee Christian Academy	35.7
25	10	Jane Wilder	Webberville	24.9

Region 34

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Adrian Lenawee Christian – was always gonna be numbers for the Cougars, as we know the coaching’s there. Summer projections just had Izzy Brooks in the top-25, now there’s Gigi Masters and Kendall Plate.

Evelyn Miller – has brought some much-needed contributions. The Colts had some unanticipated (by me, at least) subtractions, Evelyn took the opportunity to step up in spite of those. A personal best at Holly, 20:56, was nearly 2 min. faster than her performance there as a freshman.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Hillsdale Academy	21	89.4	3
2	Adrian Lenawee Christian	78	21.6
3	Addison	88
4	Petersburg-Summerfield	106
5	Pittsford	109
6	Manchester	120

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Izzy Brooks	Adrian Lenawee Christian	133.0
2	12	Ella Walton	Hillsdale Academy	101.1
3	10	Evelyn Meyer	Hillsdale Academy	97.5
4	10	Allie Miller	Hillsdale Academy	87.1
5	12	Caroline Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	82.4
6	11	Makenzie Wolfe	Petersburg-Summerfield	79.9
7	11	Audrey Nehlsen	Hillsdale Academy	78.9
8	12	Aubrey Appleman	Britton Deerfield	76.9
9	12	Stephanie Hernandez	Addison	76.3
10	12	Riley McCumber	Pittsford	68.4
11	11	Elizabeth Caspar	Hillsdale Academy	63.3
12	10	Haley Stimer	Concord	60.5
13	10	Moira Beier	Hillsdale Academy	53.4
14	10	Lillian Jagielski	Pittsford	47.6
15	11	Cieara Barrett	Concord	43.1
16	9	Mya Barrett	Concord	38.5
17	10	Caroline Mason	Manchester	36.1
18	9	Ellie Woodring	Addison	34.5
19	10	Kendalyn Perry	Addison	30.2
20	12	Taylor Lautermilch	Camden-Frontier	22.4
21	10	Gigi Masters	Adrian Lenawee Christian	22.4
22	11	Grace Raymond	Petersburg-Summerfield	21.6
23	10	Kendall Plate	Adrian Lenawee Christian	6.7
24	12	Sophia Falater	Reading	1.0
25	12	Allison Morris	Addison	0.7

Region 35

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Unionville-Sebewaing – getting those freshman contributions. Alyvia Janke and Emily Meek have finished as the top-3 Patriot girls in every meet I’ve covered and their presence has created a regional championship contender.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Ubly	44	63.5	11
2	Unionville-Sebewaing	51	62.3	13
3	Harbor Beach	68	50.1	19
4	Dryden	92	31.5	25
5	Brown City	116	15.0
6	Kinde North Huron	175
7	Memphis	180
8	Marlette	202

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	112.2
2	9	Alyvia Janke	Unionville-Sebewaing	96.7
3	11	Cara Prusakiewicz	Dryden	90.1
4	9	Payton King	Kingston	86.2
5	11	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	83.3
6	12	Julia Rogers	New Life Christian Academy	81.8
7	12	Reece Wruble	Harbor Beach	75.5
8	12	Cambree Torma	Unionville-Sebewaing	71.0
9	12	Bridget Anderson	Harbor Beach	68.6
10	9	Abbygail Plester	Ubly	63.8
11	9	Myah Peruski	Ubly	62.8
12	9	Claire Wright	Dryden	62.5
13	12	Kyra Beemer	Brown City	61.8
14	9	Emily Meek	Unionville-Sebewaing	59.3
15	9	Taylor Geiger	Ubly	57.4
16	11	HarLee Leasher	Brown City	53.4
17	9	Brooklyn Morell	Ubly	50.3
18	10	Aspen Jimkoski	Kinde North Huron	46.8
19	12	Sarah Nimtz	Unionville-Sebewaing	46.2
20	12	Emma Ramisch	Harbor Beach	42.6
21	12	Megan Peter	Unionville-Sebewaing	38.2
22	10	Cailin Spearman	Harbor Beach	36.8
23	11	Caila Fitchett	Dryden	35.3
24	11	Hailey McGuire	Kingston	33.1
25	11	Madison Prowse	Brown City	32.3

Region 36

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Team Strength – over the summer, it was looking as if this Metro Detroit region would only have one ranked team. Now we’ve got three, Royal Oak Shrine moving up to #8, Oakland Christian joining them in the top-10, and Plymouth Christian Academy.

Lydia Gleason – a new member, helping the aforementioned Lancers. Three consecutive sub-22’s, the most recent one pointing toward a drop near the 20’s.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Royal Oak Shrine	50	72.2	8
2	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	52	71.9	10
3	Plymouth Christian Academy	82	43.7	22
4	Allen Park Cabrini	99	23.8
5	Lutheran Westland	102	0.1
6	Academy of the Sacred Heart	144
7	Austin Catholic	152

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	133.6
2	12	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	113.7
3	11	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran Westland	113.7
4	10	Lydia Gleason	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	94.3
5	11	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	94.2
6	9	Cassidy Bowers	Austin Catholic	92.6
7	9	Deirdre O’Connell	Allen Park Cabrini	88.4
8	11	Stella Behnan	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	84.5
9	12	Bridget Miller	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	82.2
10	9	Nora Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	81.3
11	12	Rose Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	80.4
12	10	Louisa Denks	Royal Oak Shrine	77.5
13	12	Tess Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	64.7
14	12	Ella Poulton	Royal Oak Shrine	57.0
15	11	Alexa Ross	Academy of the Sacred Heart	48.6
16	12	Lauren Baxendale	Plymouth Christian Academy	48.5
17	9	Ava Bates	Lutheran Westland	42.2
18	10	Sydney Erickson	Lutheran Westland	37.9
19	12	Sarah Goodwin	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	36.3
20	9	Katie Vick	Plymouth Christian Academy	36.2
21	10	Kassie Kozlo	Allen Park Cabrini	32.3
22	11	Abigail Gondek	Allen Park Cabrini	27.3
23	12	Blythe Drotman	Plymouth Christian Academy	26.9
24	10	Ella Clarke	Southfield Christian	26.2
25	12	Chloe Surhigh	Royal Oak Shrine	22.7