2024 Mid-Season Projections: Division 3 Girls

There are 79 days of competition in Michigan’s cross country season. We’re at Day 42 right now. That’s about as halfway as you’re gonna get. As we’re halfway, we shoot past divisional rankings into mid-season regional projections.

These projections take on the same format as the rankings, just at the regional level now. Real quick:

Ratings are generated via:

• The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
• Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. To be included, a runner must have a rated race in September. There are a few exceptions to that, but the goal is to filter out the unfortunately injured folks. Also, these contain races through September 21st.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

• They account for course conditions and distance
  • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
  • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
• They don’t filter out runners that haven’t competed in awhile
• They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Is one better than the other? The only year (2021) I compared my predictions vs. athletic.net, I correctly predicted 188 of the 216 team qualifiers, a.net simulated 184. 2% difference, but I’ll take it. Last year, I had 192 of those 216 top-3 regional teams. I like my track record. I ain’t no a.net hater either, as I bet I spend more time on there than any human in the US.

Anyhow, as I’ve said on my division rankings, these are for fun. I’m positive in my writings toward everyone, you can be cool toward me. Enjoy.

Region 19

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Boyne City – and it’s mainly because of the Rambler depth. Delaney Little and freshman Hailee Bertels are performing as expected up front, however they’re joined by six other girls who have been under 24 this year.

Emily Dunphy – there’s a reason the Glads are at the forefront of D3 each and every year – their kids develop. Emily has averaged over 50 sec. faster in her five comparable races from 2023 to 2024.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Traverse City St. Francis	21	116.0	2
2	Clare	60	86.6	12
3	Boyne City	99	66.0
4	Cheboygan	129	51.4
5	Grayling	158	38.4
6	Tawas	175	34.0
7	Farwell	201
8	Kalkaska	205	22.2
9	Standish-Sterling	207	15.1
10	Roscommon	230
11	Harrison	307

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	152.1
2	10	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	123.4
3	12	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	120.8
4	10	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	111.4
5	10	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	99.6
6	10	Nico Triebold	Grayling	97.9
7	12	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	97.8
8	11	Paige Ritchie	Traverse City St. Francis	96.2
9	12	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	93.3
10	9	Hailee Bertels	Boyne City	90.4
11	9	Leah Leis	Clare	90.1
12	11	Delaney Little	Boyne City	89.1
13	9	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	88.8
14	11	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	88.1
15	12	Alyssa Runyan	Tawas	87.1
16	10	Stella Houdek	Traverse City St. Francis	82.7
17	10	Lauren Leis	Clare	81.0
18	11	Rachel Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	71.1
19	10	Elizabeth Letherer	Clare	69.3
20	11	Olivia Forsberg	Clare	69.2
21	12	Samantha Harke	Cheboygan	67.1
22	10	Addy Wiers	Charlevoix	62.1
23	11	Cambrynne Giem	Boyne City	60.9
24	12	Ashley Nguyen	Tawas	58.8
25	11	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	56.3

Region 20

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Benzie Central – already projected that the Huskies would make State, didn’t project the impact of Nevia Chimonas. The senior, in her first year of cross, has already broken 21 on two occasions.

Madisyn Wanstead – had a middle school career that consisted of one 6^th grade season and nothing else. Who could’ve projected a freshman that’s already made her way into the 19’s? We love these stories.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Benzie Central	60	101.5	7
2	Hart	81	90.0	9
3	McBain	102	87.3	11
4	Remus Chippewa Hills	122	79.1	17
5	Lake City	160	70.0	23
6	Reed City	173	63.4
7	Manistee	201	56.6
8	Leroy Pine River	221	42.4
9	Shelby	230	45.2
10	Mason County Central	252	36.5
11	Lakeview	301	22.4
12	Manton	306	12.9
13	Kingsley	343	4.8
14	Morley-Stanwood	406

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	147.0
2	9	Caelyn Torry	McBain	127.6
3	12	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	123.7
4	9	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	123.1
5	9	Madisyn Wanstead	Leroy Pine River	113.6
6	12	Megan Gottschall	Lake City	113.3
7	9	Avalynne Allee	Leroy Pine River	111.6
8	10	Natalie Rosema	Hart	106.7
9	12	Nevia Chimonas	Benzie Central	101.8
10	10	Lydia Soelberg	Shelby	100.3
11	9	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	99.0
12	11	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	96.5
13	9	Alaina Schaner	Hart	96.4
14	12	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	92.0
15	10	Kayden Hinton	McBain	91.4
16	10	Maylan Sanders	Mason County Central	91.4
17	9	Faith Helsel	Lake City	87.5
18	12	Clara Smoes	Reed City	87.4
19	12	Chelsi Eisenga	McBain	83.0
20	9	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	82.8
21	9	Joselyn Flores	Hart	79.1
22	11	Elizabeth Ontis	Remus Chippewa Hills	78.1
23	10	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City	75.9
24	9	Lilly Whaley	Benzie Central	75.9
25	9	Bryn Riley	Hart	75.8

Region 21

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Emily Peters – you can only assume the strength gained here will pay off for track. Twice a D3 Champ in the 300h, All-State twice in the 100’s, she can long jump and vault too. Oh and run under 21 as well.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	72	91.5	10
2	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	88	89.8	16
3	Grandville Calvin Christian	112	76.4	21
4	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	115	70.1	22
5	Olivet	167	55.6
6	Newaygo	194	45.9
7	Kent City	207	29.8
8	Holland Black River	208	38.4
9	Saranac	217	33.8
10	The Potter’s House	219	34.9
11	Delton-Kellogg	293	4.5
12	North Muskegon	296
13	Montague	302
14	Grant	367
15	Ravenna	395

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Lila Volkers	Kent City	145.4
2	12	Grace VanderKooi	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	141.1
3	9	Elliana Max	Kent City	133.3
4	10	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	127.1
5	12	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	109.1
6	10	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	107.9
7	10	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo	105.8
8	12	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	105.1
9	12	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	104.3
10	11	Emily Peters	Olivet	102.7
11	9	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	98.1
12	10	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	93.2
13	10	Anna DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	88.2
14	10	Marnath Tuol	Grandville Calvin Christian	87.1
15	12	Grace Torsch	Montague	84.4
16	12	Ava Wilson	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	83.8
17	9	Danika Lopez	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	79.0
18	10	Jenna Terpstra	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	77.2
19	9	Esther Cahill	Saranac	76.2
20	11	Sylvia Skujins	North Muskegon	75.2
21	9	Abbie Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	74.5
22	11	Amber Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	74.3
23	11	Dylan Bosma	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	74.3
24	10	Ava Langerak	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	73.7
25	12	Alyssa Possehn	Saranac	71.9

Region 22

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Skyler Fraley – took her two years, but finally back in the winning column and back in the 20’s. Saturday’s Pittsford Invite was her first win since 2022 and her third sub-21 effort of the year.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Saugatuck	60	85.5	14
2	Schoolcraft	85	65.4	27
3	Union City	90	69.7	25
4	Buchanan	93	63.6
5	Kalamazoo Christian	110	58.3
6	Niles Brandywine	143	43.1
7	Fennville	166	48.1
8	Watervliet	202	26.1
9	Bangor	242	13.3
10	Hartford	290
11	Centreville	291
12	Constantine	338

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	135.7
2	12	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	111.5
3	12	Madeline Young	Buchanan	109.0
4	12	Skyler Fraley	Union City	108.9
5	10	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	107.3
6	10	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	106.9
7	11	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck	106.1
8	10	Allison Gautsche	Union City	97.9
9	12	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	91.9
10	9	Olivia Bays	Schoolcraft	76.7
11	12	Christina Mendoza	Fennville	75.8
12	11	Alaina Nagel	Buchanan	68.4
13	12	Alissa Skirka	Union City	67.3
14	12	Ava Vlietstra	Kalamazoo Christian	64.7
15	12	Miley Young	Niles Brandywine	61.1
16	9	Alison Murray	Niles Brandywine	58.9
17	10	Emma Schoonmaker	Saugatuck	58.3
18	12	Kara Kerwin	Kalamazoo Christian	57.8
19	12	Addison Blodgett	Schoolcraft	57.6
20	9	Alyda Leep	Schoolcraft	55.1
21	12	Kimberly Romero	Watervliet	54.7
22	12	Isabelle Overmyer	Buchanan	53.1
23	9	Avery Mollberg	Buchanan	52.5
24	12	Aubree Murray	Niles Brandywine	50.3
25	12	Meryn Curtis	Saugatuck	48.7

Region 23

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Bronson – of course, the two low sticks are doing their thing up front – Ava Hathaway and Ashlynn Harris. But you’ve got an Alonna Goodsell, a sophomore addition with an enormous impact, transforming the Vikings from a projected 7^th spot to 3^rd.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	37	108.2	5
2	Onsted	83	84.3	19
3	Bronson	131	69.9
4	Hudson	139	52.5
5	Hanover-Horton	140	59.6
6	Jonesville	140	53.4
7	Hillsdale	168	52.4
8	Quincy	178	34.6
9	Sand Creek	201	28.2
10	Napoleon	203	29.4
11	Homer	332
12	Springport	356
13	Michigan Center	408

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Emmry Ross	Onsted	159.0
2	10	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	136.4
3	12	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	131.3
4	12	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	124.7
5	11	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	120.8
6	11	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	110.8
7	12	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	108.5
8	9	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	107.8
9	12	Thia Tello	Jackson Lumen Christi	106.5
10	10	Kendyl Musielewicz	Quincy	89.2
11	10	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton	83.3
12	9	Brynleigh Griffiths	Jonesville	81.2
13	10	Helen Lefere	Jackson Lumen Christi	78.8
14	12	Lainey Yearling	Quincy	77.8
15	12	Jayla Bright	Hudson	74.6
16	11	Annabelle Czeiszperger	Hudson	72.8
17	9	Madalynn Trame	Sand Creek	72.4
18	12	Allie England	Onsted	71.2
19	11	Raegan Brosamer	Onsted	67.8
20	10	Kiera Knight	Jonesville	65.9
21	11	Abby Frederick	Jackson Lumen Christi	63.7
22	10	Izabel Raglow	Onsted	62.3
23	12	Jordyn Taylor	Onsted	61.2
24	9	Madisyn Lindemann	Napoleon	60.2
25	12	Charlotte Crabbs	Quincy	59.5

Region 24

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Laingsburg – in these battles for third, it’s always the depth pieces. Step ups from seniors, who want to leave the program on a positive note, such as Evelyn Logghe. At this juncture of Evelyn’s junior year, she hadn’t been under 22:40. She’s already been there three times as a senior.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	36	117.0	3
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	37	120.5	4
3	Laingsburg	88	67.1	26
4	Bath	100	66.6
5	Chesaning	149	33.1
6	Ovid-Elsie	160	27.0
7	New Lothrop	177	16.5
8	Montrose	236
9	Mt Morris	280

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	162.1
2	12	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	149.3
3	10	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	140.8
4	12	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	140.6
5	11	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	129.3
6	11	Anna Poppema	Bath	117.3
7	9	Madison Wils	Bath	113.3
8	12	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	104.5
9	9	Adelyn Thelen	Pewamo-Westphalia	103.1
10	10	Charlotte Simon	Pewamo-Westphalia	96.6
11	10	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	95.4
12	11	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	95.1
13	11	Lilly Rooks	Pewamo-Westphalia	86.1
14	11	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	81.7
15	10	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia	77.1
16	11	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm	74.9
17	12	Evelyn Logghe	Laingsburg	72.5
18	12	Addison Rusz	Laingsburg	57.0
19	11	Logan Trygstad	Stanton Central Montcalm	55.9
20	9	KiKi Rusz	Laingsburg	53.5
21	9	Kendal Tokar	Ovid-Elsie	53.2
22	12	Ruth Jurden	Stanton Central Montcalm	52.3
23	9	Courtney Lawhorne	Bath	49.1
24	9	Alonna Schack	Chesaning	48.6
25	11	Hazel Burley	Laingsburg	48.2

Region 25

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Mattie Gagne – In the midst of the Bullock Creek renaissance you’ve got outstanding individuals. In last week’s initial JPC Jamboree, Gagne captured the victory, the first one of her career.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Ithaca	39	101.4	6
2	Midland Bullock Creek	72	86.9	13
3	Sanford-Meridian	105	67.1	24
4	St. Louis	118	61.9
5	Caro	130	55.2
6	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	137	51.0
7	Pigeon-Laker	145	48.6
8	Sandusky	166	36.1
9	Cass City	245
10	Pinconning	311
11	Carrollton	326

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	127.8
2	12	Kaya Vrable	Caro	125.5
3	10	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	119.3
4	9	Khloe Lehnst	Ithaca	115.1
5	11	Abigail Reis	Millington	106.6
6	11	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	103.2
7	10	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	98.8
8	12	Autumn Fransen	Midland Bullock Creek	96.7
9	9	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	95.7
10	10	Pyper Braun	Pigeon-Laker	94.7
11	12	Abby Dice	St. Louis	91.4
12	9	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	90.2
13	9	Isabelle Strand	Ithaca	86.7
14	12	Maddie Huysentruyt	Sandusky	86.2
15	9	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek	83.6
16	11	Izabelle LaLone	Ithaca	82.8
17	10	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	79.2
18	11	Halle Hoyt	St. Louis	79.0
19	10	Haley Fitzgibbon	Sanford-Meridian	76.0
20	9	Amelia Dawe	Ithaca	75.5
21	11	Emma Dawe	Ithaca	75.1
22	11	Alexis Fabbro	Vassar	73.8
23	11	Makenna Gwisdalla	Bad Axe	73.1
24	10	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian	69.1
25	9	Samantha Skym	Midland Bullock Creek	68.8

Region 26

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Hailey Creisher – wrote over the summer that she was a sleeper for huge accomplishments. Well we’re no longer asleep, she’s already on a wonderful path. Four straight sub-19’s and wins in five of her past six races. I can only imagine the amount of work that’s been put in these past few months.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Lansing Catholic	23	115.9	1
2	Leslie	51	96.4	8
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	81	78.5	20
4	Almont	154	32.0
5	Marine City	167	27.8
6	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	175	21.9
7	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	193
8	Algonac	200	0.2
9	Stockbridge	211
10	Wixom St. Catherine	220
11	Detroit Osborn	335

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	140.3
2	10	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	126.2
3	9	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	124.8
4	9	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic	118.2
5	11	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	115.2
6	9	Addison Gregg	Ann Arbor Greenhills	105.7
7	12	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	102.0
8	10	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	98.9
9	9	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	95.2
10	10	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic	95.2
11	10	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	94.7
12	11	Janaan Rehman	Ann Arbor Greenhills	93.8
13	9	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie	91.1
14	9	Madisyn Hunter	Leslie	86.1
15	12	Kaitlin Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	82.1
16	11	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy	80.6
17	12	Jaidyn Smith	Leslie	62.5
18	9	Taylor Stanczak	Almont	60.5
19	12	Ava Vaccaro	Stockbridge	57.9
20	12	Josephine Malysz	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	57.8
21	11	Jasmine Walker	Algonac	57.7
22	11	Laila Evola	Almont	56.9
23	10	Nina Malani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	56.1
24	10	Aubrey Pilon	Marine City	55.5
25	12	Elizabeth Ballor	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	48.6

Region 27

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Blissfield – look to league competition, where the Royals won their first jamboree. A great help was sophomore Anna Hallett, who never finished lower than 17^th in one of the LCAA jamborees during her freshman year. The first LCAA meeting this time around? 7^th.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Blissfield	42	89.7	15
2	Grass Lake	44	76.2	18
3	Monroe St. Mary CC	71	70.9
4	Erie Mason	92	48.6
5	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	101	43.1
6	Ida	146	2.2

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	146.3
2	11	Hope Miller	Blissfield	142.5
3	11	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	141.0
4	11	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	115.5
5	12	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock	103.4
6	9	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake	99.8
7	9	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	98.2
8	10	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	82.4
9	11	Julia Hughes	Ida	80.6
10	12	Mia Schroeder	Monroe Jefferson	78.5
11	12	Autumn Pernell	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	77.8
12	12	Grace Bullock	Grass Lake	77.2
13	10	Adeline Stormont	Grass Lake	73.2
14	10	Elise Bullock	Grass Lake	73.2
15	12	Kim Miller	Monroe Jefferson	71.4
16	10	Juleigh Husby	Monroe St. Mary CC	70.9
17	12	Elizabeth Lambert	Erie Mason	67.6
18	12	Alaina McClain	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	66.4
19	10	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield	65.4
20	12	Claire Lisker	Monroe St. Mary CC	63.6
21	11	Leona Knudsen	Monroe St. Mary CC	59.7
22	10	Makenzie Hilberer	Grass Lake	57.5
23	9	Kate Otting	Erie Mason	54.4
24	9	Breslin Wing	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	51.7
25	12	Bailey Meiring	Erie Mason	50.4