Mid-Season Projections: Division 2 Boys

There are 79 days of competition in Michigan’s cross country season. We’re at Day 42 right now. That’s about as halfway as you’re gonna get. As we’re halfway, we shoot past divisional rankings into mid-season regional projections.

These projections take on the same format as the rankings, just at the regional level now. Real quick:

Ratings are generated via:

• The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
• Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. To be included, a runner must have a rated race in September. There are a few exceptions to that, but the goal is to filter out the unfortunately injured folks. Also, these contain races through September 21st.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

• They account for course conditions and distance
  • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
  • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
• They don’t filter out runners that haven’t competed in awhile
• They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Is one better than the other? The only year (2021) I compared my predictions vs. athletic.net, I correctly predicted 188 of the 216 team qualifiers, a.net simulated 184. 2% difference, but I’ll take it. Last year, I had 192 of those 216 top-3 regional teams. I like my track record. I ain’t no a.net hater either, as I bet I spend more time on there than any human in the US.

Anyhow, as I’ve said on my division rankings, these are for fun. I’m positive in my writings toward everyone, you can be cool toward me. Enjoy.

Region 10

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Gladwin – Their top-3 was always a strength, now it’s quickly becoming a top-4. Myles Robinson has only built on his excellent spring, now nearly a minute faster than he finished his freshman fall.

Vincent Pollock – a two-time MIS qualifier who always finds a way to drop into the 16’s at year’s end. Well, he’s already ripped a 16:08, perhaps more is in the tank?

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Sparta	72	184.0	8
2	Cedar Springs	87	179.9	13
3	Gladwin	93	182.5	14
4	Fremont	133	172.5	21
5	Petoskey	154	168.8	26
6	Whitehall	177	165.5
7	Spring Lake	194	163.9
8	Howard City Tri-County	201	161.8
9	Ludington	226	157.3
10	Big Rapids	249	153.0
11	Muskegon Oakridge	253	140.3
12	Cadillac	264	151.6
13	Fruitport	292	126.9
14	Gaylord	407	83.8

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	204.6
2	12	Seth Mead	Gladwin	199.5
3	11	Owen Metzger	Sparta	199.2
4	12	Vincent Pollock	Fruitport	196.7
5	12	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	193.6
6	11	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	192.0
7	12	Carter Sherman	Fremont	190.9
8	12	Justin Bradford	Sparta	190.5
9	12	Hayden Gould	Big Rapids	188.9
10	12	Parker Woodwyk	Spring Lake	187.0
11	10	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	186.8
12	10	Peyton Farrell	Cedar Springs	184.4
13	11	Carson Wood	Sparta	183.7
14	11	Ben Verellen	Gladwin	183.6
15	11	Aiden Weller	Cedar Springs	183.3
16	11	Hunter Parsons	Whitehall	178.3
17	12	Peyton Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	177.8
18	12	Jackson P. Jones	Sparta	177.8
19	12	Cole Lowery	Fremont	177.6
20	12	Parker Fettig	Petoskey	176.3
21	10	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	175.6
22	12	Andrew Boeringa	Whitehall	175.5
23	12	Blake Taylor	Fremont	174.0
24	10	Gabe Grierson	Ludington	172.3
25	10	Myles Robinson	Gladwin	171.4

Region 11

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Grand Rapids Catholic Central – in awe of the progress that Mitchell Dunlap has made. During his debut season, he was able to slip under 18 twice. As a sophomore he’s gone under 16:30 on three occasions.

Will Whitmore – in the highly competitive West Side D2 landscape, even the best teams need a body to switch levels. Whitmore has done that thus far, shredding 20+ sec. from his junior best.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Allendale	36	195.7	1
2	Holland Christian	60	190.1	4
3	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	112	175.3	22
4	Zeeland East	127	171.6	23
5	Hudsonville Unity Christian	135	169.3	25
6	Hamilton	143	167.8
7	Holland	184	155.6
8	Hopkins	228	143.4
9	Grand Rapids West Catholic	279	129.5
10	Comstock Park	284	126.8
11	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	289	129.5
12	Grand River Preparatory	306	123.3
13	Coopersville	332	117.9

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	204.9
2	12	Jeb Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	204.3
3	12	Ben Gross	Allendale	200.9
4	11	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	200.9
5	12	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	200.1
6	12	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	198.5
7	12	Andrew Commeret	Comstock Park	194.6
8	10	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	194.0
9	12	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	192.3
10	12	Will Whitmore	Holland Christian	192.0
11	12	Noah Hernandez	Hamilton	190.7
12	11	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	189.0
13	11	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian	188.7
14	12	Caden Guffey	Zeeland East	187.5
15	10	Mason Hill	Allendale	184.3
16	10	Graeson Decker	Hudsonville Unity Christian	184.1
17	12	Aidan Brinks	Holland Christian	183.5
18	12	Sam Downing	Zeeland East	181.7
19	12	Brayden Rynsburger	Holland Christian	181.7
20	12	Nathan Steen	Holland Christian	181.4
21	10	Cole Coffman	Holland Christian	180.7
22	12	Aiden Kasprzak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	178.4
23	10	Alex Ten Haken	Hudsonville Unity Christian	177.7
24	9	Aiden Lambers	Holland	175.5
25	10	Nate Davis	Zeeland East	174.8

Region 12

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Jacob Draaisma – this spring was his first season of track, and in that introduction to the sport, he earned a State Finals berth in the 800 and a 2^nd place in the OK Gold 1600m. In his first XC season, he’s on the same trajectory, racing to a 16:08 at Sparta and winning two OK Gold Jamborees.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Grand Rapids Christian	40	194.5	2
2	Forest Hills Eastern	79	187.4	5
3	East Grand Rapids	83	185.9	6
4	Plainwell	92	182.4	10
5	Richland Gull Lake	186	165.0
6	Portland	208	160.0
7	Grand Rapids South Christian	209	157.7
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	228	153.8
9	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	257	147.1
10	Belding	265	144.6
11	Hastings	285	127.6
12	Wayland Union	303	109.4
13	Ionia	336	125.0
14	Lake Odessa Lakewood	344	118.9

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	210.5
2	12	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	206.8
3	11	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	202.9
4	11	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian	196.9
5	12	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	196.2
6	12	Jacob Draaisma	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	196.1
7	10	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	192.1
8	11	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	191.8
9	12	Brandon Simmons	Hastings	189.8
10	11	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	189.8
11	11	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian	189.4
12	9	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	188.6
13	11	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding	188.2
14	11	Hiro Nguyen	Plainwell	186.2
15	11	Gavin Markucki	Richland Gull Lake	185.4
16	12	Henry Cox	Plainwell	183.6
17	12	Tyler Endres	Forest Hills Eastern	183.6
18	9	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	183.1
19	12	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	182.0
20	9	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	180.6
21	11	Thad VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	180.3
22	11	Asher Jager	GR West Michigan Aviation	179.6
23	11	Andrew Feldpausch	Portland	179.3
24	12	Billy Pipkorn	Plainwell	177.4
25	11	Shephard Bower	Forest Hills Eastern	176.0

Region 13

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Three Rivers – dedication is infective. When a Sulley Zietlow gives their all to the sport, others such as Charlie Brauer follow. After hitting a singular sub-18 as a sophomore, he’s nailed six of ‘em this fall.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Otsego	74	182.3	9
2	Marshall	82	187.9	11
3	Three Rivers	98	178.6	16
4	Edwardsburg	126	171.0	24
5	St. Joseph	153	165.3
6	Battle Creek Harper Creek	160	166.2
7	Berrien Springs	188	156.5
8	Sturgis	207	155.4
9	Vicksburg	221	153.5
10	Paw Paw	256	143.8
11	Niles	270	142.7
12	Coldwater	286	138.9
13	Dowagiac Union	383	99.7
14	South Haven	416	99.8
15	Stevensville Lakeshore	429	93.9

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	216.6
2	12	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	205.4
3	12	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	204.7
4	10	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	202.5
5	12	Reece Davis	Marshall	198.1
6	10	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	196.5
7	12	Holten Mulherin	Otsego	189.1
8	11	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	186.9
9	12	Maguire Johnson	Edwardsburg	186.6
10	12	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	186.4
11	12	Nolan Park	Sturgis	185.5
12	12	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	185.5
13	12	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	184.8
14	12	Matthew Long	Otsego	184.7
15	11	Charlie Brauer	Three Rivers	179.6
16	12	Peyton Eckerley	Berrien Springs	178.7
17	10	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	178.6
18	12	Noah Jarvis	Berrien Springs	177.2
19	11	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	177.0
20	12	Logan VanHouten	Otsego	176.4
21	12	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	175.7
22	11	Benjamin Morales	Sturgis	174.7
23	11	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	174.7
24	10	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	172.7
25	10	Kellen Chalupa	Allegan	171.5

Region 14

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Kevin Terpstra – lost in the shuffle of Zeke and Larson’s accolades has been Terpstra’s rise. Two top-10’s in TVC action (never lower than 17^th in 2023) and his first sub-17 ever at Spartan (over 80 sec. faster than his freshman year) now adds to the Panther elite depth.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Alma	37	192.3	3
2	DeWitt	85	176.1	17
3	Corunna	127	167.3
4	Parma Western	129	169.0
5	Mason	154	166.2
6	Haslett	172	161.8
7	Williamston	173	161.6
8	Fowlerville	209	153.5
9	Eaton Rapids	233	150.1
10	Owosso	278	140.5
11	St. Johns	299	134.5
12	Charlotte	320	128.1
13	Lansing Waverly	363	101.2
14	Lansing Eastern	404	82.6
15	Jackson Northwest	408	81.5
16	Lansing Sexton	469	41.7

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Thomas Larson	Alma	209.0
2	10	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	206.0
3	11	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	200.1
4	12	Alex Doneth	Mason	198.8
5	12	Simon Erfourth	Owosso	195.7
6	12	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	194.6
7	10	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	188.0
8	12	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	187.1
9	9	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	186.4
10	12	Conner McCormick	Mason	186.3
11	11	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	183.2
12	12	Jackson Walthorn	DeWitt	182.6
13	10	Ryan Good	Parma Western	182.6
14	12	Bobby Donley	Corunna	181.6
15	11	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	180.2
16	12	Bodie Heiss	Alma	175.1
17	11	Payton Chandler	Corunna	174.7
18	10	Thaddeus Overley	Lansing Waverly	174.1
19	10	Ezra Nellis	Corunna	173.7
20	11	Joshua Carpenter	DeWitt	171.6
21	12	Ian Goodrich	DeWitt	170.3
22	11	Luca Lebron	Alma	170.2
23	12	Jack Huntington	Eaton Rapids	169.9
24	11	Braylon Lenneman	DeWitt	169.2
25	9	Sam Johnson	Alma	169.1

Region 15

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Flint Powers Catholic – powered by their depth. The Chargers have already thrown six under the 18 min. mark, which means there will be a ton of displacing down the line.

Nicklas Parker – the track potential coming to fruition. Has already dropped more than 30 sec. from his XC best and nabbed a top-20 finish in the competitive Spartan field.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Frankenmuth	60	183.8	7
2	Shepherd	70	183.0	12
3	Flint Powers Catholic	72	182.4	15
4	Freeland	95	180.0	19
5	Flint Kearsley	130	165.5
6	Goodrich	158	160.5
7	Saginaw Swan Valley	189	151.2
8	Ortonville Brandon	253	120.1
9	Bay City John Glenn	278	114.6
10	Birch Run	286	108.7
11	North Branch	297	106.2
12	Essexville-Garber	299	98.1
13	Imlay City	363	74.7

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	T.j. Hansen	Freeland	223.2
2	11	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	205.5
3	10	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	205.2
4	9	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	203.8
5	11	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	201.4
6	12	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	199.9
7	12	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	196.9
8	10	Nicklas Parker	Frankenmuth	191.3
9	11	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	189.8
10	11	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	188.5
11	12	Ethan Sellers	Flint Kearsley	188.3
12	12	Owen Fennelly	Saginaw Swan Valley	184.2
13	12	Camden McLeod	Freeland	178.0
14	11	Ian McNeel	Shepherd	177.3
15	12	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth	177.2
16	12	Sam Nemeth	Freeland	175.8
17	11	Cole Fernandez	Flint Kearsley	174.7
18	11	Cole Pergram	Frankenmuth	172.3
19	11	Caleb Carignan	Flint Powers Catholic	169.9
20	10	Drew Davis	Shepherd	169.7
21	12	Cole Winter	Goodrich	168.1
22	10	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	168.1
23	10	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	167.0
24	11	Thomas Beiter	Flint Powers Catholic	166.0
25	9	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic	165.5

Region 16

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Brodie Licata – over 20 for the majority of his freshman and sophomore races. Totally transformed runner, now hitting mid-17 at Bath and the traditionally tough Linden Classic.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Pinckney	42	176.9	18
2	Detroit Country Day	61	166.9
3	Dearborn Divine Child	101	160.3
4	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	108	152.8
5	Redford Union	112	149.9
6	Lake Fenton	122	146.8
7	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	182	130.7
8	Linden	204	123.9
9	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	233	114.1
10	Garden City	286	49.3

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	211.8
2	10	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	198.0
3	12	Zachary Newman	Pinckney	191.0
4	12	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	185.0
5	12	Isaak Brook	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	183.7
6	10	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	177.9
7	11	Brodie Licata	Lake Fenton	173.0
8	12	Kyle Osborne	Pinckney	172.1
9	12	Alex Kitsopanidis	Detroit Country Day	167.3
10	10	Cooper Steckroth	Lake Fenton	165.2
11	9	Ethan Bray	Detroit Country Day	164.9
12	11	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	164.9
13	11	Nate Sandula	Pinckney	163.6
14	12	Devon Foster	Redford Union	160.1
15	12	Deric Tavolette	Redford Union	159.9
16	12	Gabe Maciag	Pinckney	159.6
17	9	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	158.9
18	9	Jackson Butts	Lake Fenton	158.0
19	12	Nicholas Nakic	Dearborn Divine Child	155.3
20	11	Bela Matyus	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	152.6
21	10	Noah Neuman	Pinckney	150.5
22	12	Ryan Wojichowski	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	149.9
23	12	Michael Porter Jr.	Redford Union	149.3
24	11	Wyatt Larson	Pinckney	148.5
25	10	Joseph Arriola	Dearborn Divine Child	147.8

Region 17

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Logan Rhodes – sophomore leap occurring. His 18:13 at Spartan was more than 1.5 minutes better than his freshman experience, arguably in tougher conditions as well.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Yale	41	161.8
2	St. Clair	42	162.2
3	Macomb Lutheran North	53	163.6
4	Madison Heights Lamphere	148	126.1
5	Armada	152	123.6
6	Marysville	173	118.4
7	Croswell-Lexington	181	113.5
8	Richmond	187	110.5
9	Warren Lincoln	281	63.3
10	Harper Woods	305	36.2
11	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	345

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	193.8
2	11	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	177.5
3	10	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	173.4
4	12	Wyatt Murtos	Yale	170.1
5	11	Brayden Prieskorn	St. Clair	168.2
6	12	Jerry Westrick	St. Clair	166.1
7	12	Teddy Rutkofske	Yale	164.2
8	12	Kale Kovach	Yale	159.9
9	11	Luke McDonell	St. Clair	159.2
10	10	Logan Rhodes	Yale	158.7
11	10	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	157.8
12	11	Nolan Korolden	Yale	155.9
13	11	Samuel Kochensparger	Macomb Lutheran North	154.9
14	9	Brady VanConant	Yale	152.2
15	12	Jack McMahon	Macomb Lutheran North	151.5
16	9	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond	150.4
17	12	Pete Lutz	Madison Heights Lamphere	146.8
18	10	Brendan Koza	Marysville	144.8
19	12	Korbyn Thornton	St. Clair	144.2
20	12	Georgio Aramouni	Madison Heights Lamphere	143.7
21	12	Jack Nicol	Yale	142.7
22	11	Oliver Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	140.2
23	10	Nino Biondo	Macomb Lutheran North	136.6
24	11	Anthony Alvarez	Armada	134.1
25	11	Gavin Bishop	St. Clair	133.6

Region 18

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

New Boston Huron – an unexpected name here! A big thanks should go out to senior Kyle Biller, who’s having the season of his career. His 17:33 PB at Cadillac was over 45 sec. faster than he’s ever run on the course.

Henry Fredenberg – No XC or track experience, no problem. Five straight 17-min. performances to begin his career.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	New Boston Huron	52	176.6	20
2	Adrian	66	170.0	27
3	Chelsea	91	162.5
4	Carleton Airport	119	155.4
5	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	125	154.4
6	Tecumseh	131	152.9
7	Grosse Ile	183	141.7
8	Dundee	195	143.4
9	Ypsilanti Community	265	119.6
10	Riverview	306	111.1
11	Trenton	325	98.1
12	Milan	350	49.3
13	Melvindale	372	16.9

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Moises Salazar	Adrian	200.1
2	12	Lucas Kuhn	New Boston Huron	199.5
3	11	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	192.7
4	12	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	189.5
5	11	Henry Fredenberg	Chelsea	182.3
6	11	Matthew Carbajo	Grosse Ile	179.4
7	10	Carter Fenner	Adrian	172.3
8	9	Harrison Stamper	Tecumseh	171.0
9	11	Linus Helzerman	Chelsea	169.4
10	12	Kyle Biller	New Boston Huron	169.0
11	11	Joseph Horn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	167.1
12	12	Callum Bell	Carleton Airport	166.8
13	10	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	166.0
14	10	Jonathan Rapoza	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	165.0
15	10	Owen Thorburn	Chelsea	163.8
16	9	Eli Morris	Tecumseh	162.0
17	11	Jacob Alt	Ypsilanti Community	161.7
18	10	Landin Fisher	Adrian	161.4
19	9	Easton Coscarelli	Adrian	159.4
20	11	William Dobbertin	Carleton Airport	158.8
21	12	Tyler Condon	Adrian	156.9
22	10	Hunter Rodak	Carleton Airport	156.5
23	12	Jack Fox	Grosse Ile	156.1
24	10	Tanner Kuhn	New Boston Huron	155.9
25	9	Lucas Zeckner	Adrian	153.8