Mid-Season Projections: Division 2 Girls

There are 79 days of competition in Michigan’s cross country season. We’re at Day 42 right now. That’s about as halfway as you’re gonna get. As we’re halfway, we shoot past divisional rankings into mid-season regional projections.

These projections take on the same format as the rankings, just at the regional level now. Real quick:

Ratings are generated via:

• The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
• Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. To be included, a runner must have a rated race in September. There are a few exceptions to that, but the goal is to filter out the unfortunately injured folks. Also, these contain races through September 21st.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

• They account for course conditions and distance
  • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
  • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
• They don’t filter out runners that haven’t competed in awhile
• They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Is one better than the other? The only year (2021) I compared my predictions vs. athletic.net, I correctly predicted 188 of the 216 team qualifiers, a.net simulated 184. 2% difference, but I’ll take it. Last year, I had 192 of those 216 top-3 regional teams. I like my track record. I ain’t no a.net hater either, as I bet I spend more time on there than any human in the US.

Anyhow, as I’ve said on my division rankings, these are for fun. I’m positive in my writings toward everyone, you can be cool toward me. Enjoy.

Region 10

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Mia May – had a very good close to her freshman track campaign, running under 5:30 in the 1600m. Has continued the momentum into cross, now knocking on the door of sub-19.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Cadillac	84	107.3	16
2	Ludington	89	108.2	18
3	Spring Lake	90	104.5	15
4	Cedar Springs	144	87.8
5	Fruitport	154	84.5
6	Petoskey	171	80.7
7	Gladwin	181	79.6
8	Fremont	191	72.7
9	Whitehall	200	71.0
10	Gaylord	210	76.4
11	Sparta	236	59.8
12	Howard City Tri-County	317	36.8
13	Big Rapids	345	28.0
14	Ogemaw Heights	459

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	157.9
2	10	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	137.8
3	10	Mia May	Sparta	137.5
4	11	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	134.3
5	12	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	133.3
6	10	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	125.7
7	12	Abby Robinson	Gladwin	122.9
8	11	Linnea Paige	Fremont	122.2
9	12	Camille (Cami) Kraai	Whitehall	121.0
10	11	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	119.0
11	9	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	113.8
12	10	Abby Noorman	Cedar Springs	109.3
13	12	Adalyn Britton	Whitehall	109.2
14	12	Valerie Pollock	Fruitport	108.4
15	11	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	108.1
16	12	Lillian Binger	Gladwin	106.1
17	9	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs	105.5
18	11	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	105.1
19	9	Kaleigh Clark	Spring Lake	102.5
20	12	Summer Brower	Ludington	100.6
21	12	Lexie Ruffing	Spring Lake	98.1
22	10	Cora Parker	Spring Lake	98.0
23	12	Autumn Brower	Ludington	97.8
24	12	Bethany Zimmerman	Spring Lake	94.1
25	9	Ruth Hanson	Cadillac	90.9

Region 11

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Marie Gates – great to see Marie back in the fold. After racing to a 19:05 early in her freshman year, we hadn’t seen much of her. Well, she’s back and faster than before, notching two sub-19’s in this, her junior season.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Zeeland East	30	137.6	1
2	Holland Christian	47	127.1	4
3	Hudsonville Unity Christian	78	113.4	10
4	Coopersville	110	99.5	21
5	Holland	147	86.6
6	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	219	59.2
7	Hopkins	225	58.1
8	Grand Rapids West Catholic	228	58.8
9	Hamilton	234	55.7
10	Allendale	237	53.4
11	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	341
12	Grand River Preparatory	360
13	Comstock Park	393
14	Wyoming Lee	403

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	158.5
2	11	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	144.0
3	9	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East	143.0
4	10	Johanna Mulder	Holland	140.9
5	11	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	139.4
6	9	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	137.1
7	10	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	131.6
8	9	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	127.6
9	10	Olivia Hollebeek	Holland Christian	126.6
10	11	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	123.9
11	11	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	123.5
12	10	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	121.7
13	11	Layla Geurink	Holland Christian	118.3
14	10	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	116.6
15	12	Sierra Grooters	Hudsonville Unity Christian	114.7
16	9	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	108.5
17	11	Sadie Schout	Hudsonville Unity Christian	107.8
18	9	Lexi Gibson	Holland	104.8
19	12	Grace Mckinney	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	104.3
20	9	Annika Stob	Holland Christian	104.1
21	12	Maddie Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	102.5
22	11	Olivia Droski	Coopersville	102.4
23	12	Maya VanSolkema	Hudsonville Unity Christian	98.0
24	10	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	96.4
25	10	Riley DenHartigh	Hudsonville Unity Christian	90.7

Region 12

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Marlina Howell – it’s so evident when an athlete throws 100% effort into a sport, Marlina a prime example of that. Three 20 min. efforts to begin her senior year. In the comparable races to last fall, she’s run well over a minute faster. She’s got her Hawk girls in a great place to return to MIS.  

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Grand Rapids Christian	28	130.9	2
2	East Grand Rapids	47	120.9	7
3	Forest Hills Eastern	105	104.3	14
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	127	98.1	20
5	Plainwell	152	93.3	27
6	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	153	95.7
7	Richland Gull Lake	168	92.0
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	248	60.1
9	Portland	264	58.8
10	Belding	269	63.8
11	Battle Creek Pennfield	352	13.1
12	Ionia	353	8.0
13	Lake Odessa Lakewood	388
14	Wayland Union	390	1.7
15	Hastings	441

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	145.2
2	10	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	142.5
3	11	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	138.8
4	12	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	137.2
5	10	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	134.8
6	12	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	129.2
7	11	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian	126.3
8	10	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	123.9
9	10	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	120.3
10	11	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	118.6
11	11	Madelyn Baar	East Grand Rapids	115.8
12	10	Clare Assaf	East Grand Rapids	109.9
13	11	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	108.3
14	12	Marlina Howell	Forest Hills Eastern	108.1
15	9	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	107.5
16	11	Rory Workman	East Grand Rapids	107.4
17	12	Claire Vos	Plainwell	107.2
18	12	Avery Wezensky	Portland	106.9
19	10	Sofia Lewis	GR West Michigan Aviation	106.0
20	10	Ainsley Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	105.0
21	10	Ahna Woltjer	GR West Michigan Aviation	104.7
22	11	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	104.1
23	9	Lydia Visker	Grand Rapids Christian	100.9
24	9	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern	100.7
25	9	Joy Van Wyk	Grand Rapids Christian	98.1

Region 13

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Sturgis – the emergence of Sydney Bir into an excellent backup to Holtz has really helped. Bir has experience running her best when it matters most. This time around, she’ll enter championship season with multiple low-20 efforts under her belt.

Audrey Kline – the Bear freshman was projected to be good, but perhaps not THIS good. Four sub-20’s and an important 4^th place in the initial SMAC West Jamboree.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Otsego	32	126.7	5
2	St. Joseph	63	114.5	11
3	Sturgis	85	105.9	19
4	Stevensville Lakeshore	114	89.7
5	Paw Paw	164	75.4
6	Marshall	165	76.0
7	Battle Creek Harper Creek	189	71.5
8	Three Rivers	205	65.1
9	Niles	248	55.8
10	Edwardsburg	260	51.4
11	Berrien Springs	319	35.1
12	Coldwater	342	17.9
13	Vicksburg	346	22.6
14	Dowagiac Union	370	12.3
15	South Haven	452

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	167.9
2	12	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	156.1
3	11	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	151.7
4	9	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	131.8
5	12	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	120.0
6	11	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	119.8
7	11	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	118.8
8	10	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	117.6
9	11	Julia Faber	Battle Creek Harper Creek	114.4
10	11	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph	109.2
11	10	Madeline Goodwin	Otsego	109.1
12	12	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	105.7
13	12	Kaylee Sprague	Stevensville Lakeshore	105.5
14	11	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	105.4
15	12	Charlie Drew	Niles	102.8
16	10	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	98.8
17	11	Leah McPartlin	Marshall	98.7
18	9	Gweneth Eby	Coldwater	98.4
19	12	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	97.2
20	12	Taylor Klimp	Otsego	95.8
21	9	Alaina Dillon	Marshall	95.4
22	12	Annika DeJong	Stevensville Lakeshore	91.1
23	12	Sadie Ebel	St. Joseph	88.8
24	10	Lily Cummings	St. Joseph	86.6
25	10	Eleanor Park	Sturgis	84.7

Region 14

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Mia Williams – mad consistency from the experienced Panther senior. Four of her five races have been between 19:40 and 20:15, including a patient one at Spartan that helped DeWitt claim a title.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	DeWitt	31	122.8	6
2	Owosso	111	92.9	26
3	Alma	119	96.4	25
4	Mason	150	86.0
5	St. Johns	154	93.4
6	Charlotte	168	81.6
7	Parma Western	170	80.2
8	Haslett	209	70.2
9	Williamston	233	61.4
10	Eaton Rapids	258	56.8
11	Corunna	258	50.8
12	Fowlerville	272	49.5
13	Jackson Northwest	402
14	Lansing Waverly	442
15	Lansing Eastern	447

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	164.1
2	12	Ayla Holben	DeWitt	145.6
3	9	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	137.9
4	12	Joy Evans	Alma	133.7
5	12	Mia Williams	DeWitt	124.8
6	11	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	120.3
7	12	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	118.6
8	9	Aurora Doepker	DeWitt	113.6
9	12	Autumn Thompson	DeWitt	111.2
10	11	Isabella Taber	DeWitt	107.7
11	12	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	106.1
12	12	Julionna West	Owosso	105.0
13	12	Hayven Thiel	Corunna	104.5
14	10	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	102.8
15	11	Maria Beach	Fowlerville	102.5
16	12	Ezgi Kurt	Alma	99.9
17	12	Natalie Summerland	Owosso	99.7
18	10	Morgan Allen	Mason	99.6
19	10	Colette Charchut	Haslett	97.4
20	11	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	97.3
21	12	Morgan Ashcroft	DeWitt	95.9
22	12	Raquel Curey	Parma Western	93.1
23	9	Abby Crandell	Owosso	91.0
24	9	Ruby Petee	Mason	89.7
25	10	Helena Goodrich	Charlotte	88.3

Region 15

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Grace Evanoff – by far. A full summer of running has resulted in a season where she’s dropped well over 2 minutes from her lifetime best. I hope college coaches are reading or paying attention…

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Goodrich	36	127.1	3
2	Freeland	59	118.9	9
3	Frankenmuth	78	111.4	13
4	Shepherd	108	97.2	23
5	Flint Powers Catholic	118	91.4
6	Flint Kearsley	200	52.0
7	Imlay City	237	31.1
8	Saginaw Swan Valley	239	12.3
9	Ortonville Brandon	252	16.4
10	Essexville-Garber	289
11	North Branch	295
12	Bay City John Glenn	302

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	153.0
2	11	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	146.6
3	12	Grace Evanoff	Flint Powers Catholic	139.1
4	10	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	134.6
5	12	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	129.4
6	12	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	128.1
7	10	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	127.3
8	12	Karie Keefer	Freeland	127.1
9	9	Danica Redes	Shepherd	126.2
10	10	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	126.1
11	9	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	124.0
12	11	Samantha Brown	Clio	121.4
13	12	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	119.5
14	10	Claire Brown	Goodrich	118.2
15	11	Jada Prescott	Freeland	115.5
16	11	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	111.7
17	10	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	110.1
18	12	Grace Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	108.0
19	12	Reese Beery	Saginaw Swan Valley	104.8
20	9	Ellie Thering	Freeland	99.8
21	10	Isabel Reinke	Freeland	99.2
22	9	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic	99.0
23	11	Emilee Young	Shepherd	95.3
24	9	Gabriella Dallas	Freeland	95.2
25	12	Gracie Warner	Shepherd	93.9

Region 16

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Madalynn Karsies – after struggling through Milford and Holly, finally got the chance to let it loose at Jackson. The result was a 20-flat, her 2^nd personal best of the year, and best SEC White finish ever.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Linden	51	108.7	12
2	Dearborn Divine Child	83	96.0	22
3	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	88	95.4	24
4	Detroit Country Day	102	87.9
5	Pinckney	106	94.2
6	Lake Fenton	153	68.7
7	Bloomfield Hills Marian	158	68.0
8	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	179	67.8
9	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	215	53.1
10	Garden City	317

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	148.8
2	12	Mea D’Agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	141.3
3	10	Addison Josephson	Linden	124.5
4	12	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	124.3
5	12	Madalynn Karsies	Pinckney	117.9
6	10	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	114.4
7	12	Chloe Josephson	Linden	113.9
8	12	Nell Stover	Detroit Country Day	110.0
9	12	Kathryn Kurtinaitis	Dearborn Divine Child	108.4
10	10	Sidney Shepard	Linden	105.9
11	12	Skylar Vanhecke	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	105.0
12	10	Elliana Hufton	Lake Fenton	104.0
13	11	Annabelle Ellenbogen	Detroit Country Day	103.8
14	12	Tess Scicluna	Dearborn Divine Child	98.8
15	12	Kayla Slade	Dearborn Divine Child	98.6
16	12	Claire Heller	Detroit Country Day	96.5
17	9	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney	96.1
18	10	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	95.4
19	11	Anna Kujansuu	Dearborn Divine Child	91.1
20	9	Ana Lovell	Lake Fenton	90.0
21	10	Claire Dunn	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	86.4
22	9	Leah Krzeszewski	Bloomfield Hills Marian	86.4
23	10	Paige Willman	Lake Fenton	85.8
24	12	Mary Larocca	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	85.7
25	9	Molly Roberts	Linden	84.8

Region 17

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Macomb Lutheran North – it’s no surprise that the Mustangs are projected as a top-3 squad, it’s that they’ve vaulted into the top spot. The Black n’ Yellow depth stands out, bookmarked by senior Isabella LaPerriere, who’s already nearly matched her PR from last fall.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Macomb Lutheran North	63	87.3
2	St. Clair	65	85.1
3	Croswell-Lexington	102	78.0
4	Armada	119	67.2
5	Warren Regina	122	64.2
6	Yale	137	60.4
7	Marysville	139	58.4
8	Madison Heights Lamphere	212	17.9
9	Richmond	238	5.8
10	Detroit University Prep	293
11	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	343

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	133.8
2	12	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	109.9
3	10	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	108.6
4	12	Brynn Hurley	Croswell-Lexington	105.3
5	12	Natalie Lentine	Warren Regina	102.5
6	12	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	99.2
7	9	Saige Cole	Yale	98.7
8	10	Ella Thornton	St. Clair	92.5
9	12	Allie Komarowski	St. Clair	91.8
10	12	Lillian Rutallie	Marysville	88.6
11	11	Molly McNabb	St. Clair	88.0
12	10	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair	86.3
13	10	Avery Stallmann	Macomb Lutheran North	85.1
14	9	Lucy Gump	Macomb Lutheran North	82.7
15	10	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	82.6
16	10	Hannah Haines	Madison Heights Lamphere	80.0
17	12	Addison Stevens	Marysville	79.6
18	12	Isabella LaPerriere	Macomb Lutheran North	77.5
19	11	Pauline Chapman	Richmond	75.6
20	10	Helena Reiff	Armada	73.7
21	10	Lillian Bender	Yale	72.7
22	9	Chloe Boright	Macomb Lutheran North	69.5
23	9	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	69.5
24	11	Abigail Denoyer	Armada	68.2
25	12	Eden Brewer	St. Clair	66.9

Region 18

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Evelyn Kuhn – the transfer from Franklin has been a great insurance policy for the Fighting Irish. She’s had four straight mid-20 efforts and has solidified GR’s bid for a state qualifying bid.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Adrian	42	124.0	8
2	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	72	104.6	17
3	Carleton Airport	110	96.6
4	Chelsea	127	86.1
5	New Boston Huron	142	78.9
6	Tecumseh	149	81.1
7	Trenton	166	71.4
8	Dundee	180	64.7
9	Milan	187	56.8
10	Grosse Ile	236	47.4
11	Ypsilanti Community	319

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Courtney Bovair	Carleton Airport	152.5
2	12	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	147.0
3	10	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	142.8
4	9	Madison Petty	Adrian	127.2
5	11	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	123.6
6	10	Monica Lynn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	119.6
7	10	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	119.6
8	9	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	118.9
9	12	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	118.1
10	11	Evelyn Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	114.2
11	12	Marisa Chuey	Trenton	108.3
12	11	Amerie Wilson	Milan	106.9
13	11	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	104.2
14	11	Samantha Bieber	Chelsea	101.9
15	12	Kaylee Hovey	Dundee	100.6
16	12	Madison Morris	Tecumseh	100.4
17	9	Ella Baker	Carleton Airport	98.9
18	10	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron	91.7
19	9	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton	91.2
20	9	Allison Ost	Dundee	90.5
21	11	Alyssa Korte	Grosse Ile	87.4
22	9	Jaelynn Greene	Carleton Airport	87.0
23	10	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	85.9
24	11	Kaily McDaniel	Milan	85.3
25	9	Klair Baker	Adrian	84.0