2024 Mid-Season Projections: Division 1 Boys

There are 79 days of competition in Michigan’s cross country season. We’re at Day 43 right now. That’s about as halfway as you’re gonna get. As we’re halfway, we shoot past divisional rankings into mid-season regional projections.

These projections take on the same format as the rankings, just at the regional level now. Real quick:

Ratings are generated via:

• The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
• Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. To be included, a runner must have a rated race in September. There are a few exceptions to that, but the goal is to filter out the unfortunately injured folks. Also, these contain races through September 21st.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

• They account for course conditions and distance
  • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
  • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
• They don’t filter out runners that haven’t competed in awhile
• They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Is one better than the other? The only year (2021) I compared my predictions vs. athletic.net, I correctly predicted 188 of the 216 team qualifiers, a.net simulated 184. 2% difference, but I’ll take it. Last year, I had 192 of those 216 top-3 regional teams. I like my track record. I ain’t no a.net hater either, as I bet I spend more time on there than any human in the US.

Anyhow, as I’ve said on my division rankings, these are for fun. I’m positive in my writings toward everyone, you can be cool toward me. Enjoy.

Region 1

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Rockford – mainly aided by sophomore Josiah Dierksen, who’s rattled off three sub-17’s thus far this season.

Caden Livermore – following closely behind his brother’s footsteps. Two top-10’s at both OK Red Jamborees and he absolutely sent a 15:41 at Jackson.

Team

Rank	Team	Region	Top 5 Avg.	Mid Season Rank
1	Jenison	37	199.9	2
2	Grand Haven	63	192.6	8
3	Rockford	84	185.6	14
4	Grandville	118	184.5
5	Holland West Ottawa	123	178.8
6	Zeeland West	148	176.3
7	Hudsonville	180	171.0
8	Grand Rapids Northview	248	152.7
9	Greenville	264	149.1
10	Grand Rapids Union	307	139.5
11	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	340	128.6
12	Muskegon Mona Shores	347	128.7
13	Wyoming	366	118.0
14	Muskegon	459	62.5

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	MSR
1	12	Carter Livermore	Grandville	212.6
2	12	Seth Conner	Jenison	212.4
3	10	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	204.9
4	12	Parker Strelecki	Jenison	201.9
5	12	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	201.5
6	12	Mason Lucas	Jenison	199.6
7	11	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	198.8
8	10	Caden Livermore	Grandville	198.2
9	12	Matthew Schwartz	Jenison	197.4
10	12	Noah Schuette	Rockford	192.4
11	11	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	190.3
12	11	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	190.2
13	11	Preston VanOeffelen	Greenville	189.1
14	11	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	188.7
15	10	Josiah Derksen	Rockford	188.4
16	11	Nolan Wenglikowski	Jenison	188.0
17	11	Hayden Lafferty	Rockford	185.6
18	10	Bradley Smies	Hudsonville	184.9
19	12	Levi Jongekryg	Holland West Ottawa	183.6
20	12	Nathan Loser	Rockford	181.5
21	12	Carson Berko	Grand Haven	181.4
22	9	Luke Bultman	Rockford	180.2
23	11	Michael Dummer	Holland West Ottawa	180.1
24	11	Jake Follett	Holland West Ottawa	179.1
25	12	Dominic Otto	Jenison	177.0

Region 2

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Traverse City West – beneficiaries of the new Aidan Simrau. He’s been a minute faster (or close to a minute) at Pete Moss and Cadillac. Three sub-17’s for Simrau, including a 16:40 personal best this past week.

Alexander Allen – Just notched the first win of his career and I’m sure there’ll be many to come. The Alpena freshman has already raced to a sub-16 and he’s shown he’s not afraid of competition, placing 4^th at Northwood and 9^th at Spartan.

Team

Rank	Team	Region	Top 5 Avg.	Mid Season Rank
1	Traverse City Central	60	189.5	11
2	Midland	83	185.8	16
3	Traverse City West	108	182.7	23
4	Grand Ledge	123	180.4
5	Okemos	127	180.3
6	Saginaw Heritage	150	178.2
7	Midland Dow	168	174.4
8	Bay City Western	221	163.2
9	Alpena	224	168.8
10	Mt. Pleasant	229	167.4
11	Holt	308	153.9
12	East Lansing	311	152.6
13	Lansing Everett	425	117.8
14	Bay City Central	443	105.5

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	MSR
1	10	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	199.7
2	11	Ian Morgan	Okemos	199.1
3	11	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	198.3
4	11	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	196.8
5	11	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	196.3
6	9	Alexander Allen	Alpena	194.6
7	11	Jack Steen	Traverse City Central	194.5
8	11	Andrew Worsley	Midland	192.8
9	12	Ian Boss	Traverse City Central	191.5
10	10	Cameron Cochran	Midland	191.2
11	12	Andrew Kaczmarczyk	Bay City Western	190.0
12	11	Logan Bellinger	Midland	189.5
13	12	Logan Gehoski	Bay City Western	188.8
14	12	Sam Scott	Midland Dow	185.0
15	12	Lawrence Cubitt	Traverse City Central	184.5
16	11	Aidan Simrau	Traverse City West	184.1
17	12	Leyton Minuth	Midland Dow	183.5
18	11	Hayden Murray	Traverse City West	183.2
19	10	Matthew Wortley	Saginaw Heritage	183.0
20	12	Nathan Beemer	Okemos	182.8
21	12	Spencer Porritt	Midland	181.1
22	9	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge	180.3
23	11	Liam Preisser	East Lansing	179.6
24	10	Simon Shutt	Okemos	179.1
25	9	Johnathan Elsea	Mt. Pleasant	179.1

Region 3

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Portage Central – and you can thank Tristan Zhang, who just keeps going lower and lower. A 16:57 opener at home had many take notice. Since then, he’s earned a win in the first SMAC West Jamboree and lowered that PR to 16:19.

Marshall Huhn – during track, there were signs we’d see a little improvement, but nothing to this degree. Huhn has already dropped more than 50 sec. from his freshman best.

Team

Rank	Team	Region	Top 5 Avg.	Mid Season Rank
1	East Kentwood	83	191.1	9
2	Portage Central	90	189.0	10
3	Forest Hills Central	114	187.1	17
4	Kalamazoo Central	128	185.2	21
5	Caledonia	146	181.9	24
6	Lowell	149	183.0	26
7	Forest Hills Northern	180	178.0
8	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	191	179.0
9	Battle Creek Lakeview	208	174.7
10	Byron Center	232	172.9
11	Portage Northern	253	169.9
12	Mattawan	255	167.2
13	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	284	161.8

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	MSR
1	11	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	206.1
2	12	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	202.4
3	10	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	201.2
4	11	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	199.7
5	12	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	198.4
6	11	Cooper Byrne	Lowell	198.2
7	12	Mitchell Jeruzal	Byron Center	197.6
8	12	Spencer Parker	Portage Central	197.4
9	10	Marshall Huhn	Lowell	197.1
10	12	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	195.8
11	12	Kort Thompson	Caledonia	195.7
12	12	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	195.1
13	11	Owen Fisher	Mattawan	193.5
14	10	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood	192.7
15	12	Spencer Porter	Forest Hills Northern	190.6
16	10	Tristan Zhang	Portage Central	190.1
17	9	Marcus Essling	Portage Central	189.3
18	11	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	188.2
19	12	Jacob Sanford	Forest Hills Central	188.1
20	11	Marcel Stork	Mattawan	187.9
21	10	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood	187.6
22	10	Memphis Connor	Byron Center	187.4
23	11	Nicolas Morales-Sanchez	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	186.5
24	11	Owen Gifford	Portage Central	184.4
25	11	Logan Westgate	Portage Central	184.0

Region 4

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Ann Arbor Skyline – hittin’ us with their depth. At Jackson, the Eagles put 8 boys under 17:30. When filtering out for Region 4 teams, Skyline placed 2^nd of 5.

Broden Ladd – in any FML meet for his freshman year, he was a sure bet to place over 20^th place. Through two this time around, two top-10 finishes. The times have come too, with a 16:56 in the heat at Holly and a 16:49 after traveling up to Cadillac.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid Season Rank
1	Brighton	31	197.5	3
2	Dexter	101	183.5	25
3	Ann Arbor Skyline	111	177.9
4	Howell	114	184.8
5	Davison	145	173.9
6	Holly	171	172.1
7	Grand Blanc	198	167.2
8	Hartland	201	167.4
9	Fenton	212	166.4
10	Flushing	271	155.4
11	Lapeer	298	148.7
12	Swartz Creek	338	135.6
13	Jackson	343	131.4

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	MSR
1	10	Jack MacGregor	Howell	212.6
2	12	Tyler Brock	Brighton	203.2
3	12	Julian Linebaugh	Dexter	202.9
4	10	Blake Kulesza	Brighton	198.6
5	12	Lucas Wood	Howell	197.8
6	12	Tyler Outlaw	Brighton	197.3
7	12	James Latstetter	Flushing	195.7
8	11	Zach Wyderko	Brighton	195.1
9	12	Caleb Snyder	Dexter	194.8
10	9	Gavin Katic	Fenton	194.3
11	12	Brady Millington	Brighton	193.2
12	12	Jacob Essenmacher	Lapeer	190.6
13	10	Broden Ladd	Holly	186.3
14	12	Drake Wallace	Howell	184.2
15	12	Luke Meyer	Davison	182.5
16	11	Bruno Cifaldi	Ann Arbor Skyline	181.2
17	10	Trevor Murphy	Holly	181.1
18	11	Mitchell Cory	Brighton	180.6
19	10	Nicholas Yuan	Ann Arbor Skyline	180.0
20	11	Braden Shiposh	Hartland	178.7
21	11	Noah Linstrom	Davison	178.4
22	10	Matthew Guikema	Ann Arbor Skyline	178.2
23	10	Coen Hill	Dexter	177.3
24	12	Elijah Forbord	Brighton	176.9
25	12	Jack Robichaud	Ann Arbor Skyline	176.2

Region 5

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Mourad Algahmi – Alzindani and Schell are the names in the history books, perhaps in a few years we’ll add Algahmi? The freshman already has a win under his belt to go with his 16:41 personal best.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid Season Rank
1	Saline	28	192.0	6
2	Temperance Bedford	81	178.8
3	Ann Arbor Pioneer	83	181.9
4	Brownstown Woodhaven	90	178.3
5	Monroe	136	169.3
6	Dearborn	197	153.6
7	Gibraltar Carlson	210	145.7
8	Allen Park	234	141.0
9	Wyandotte Roosevelt	247	134.4
10	Dearborn Edsel Ford	307	116.5
11	Ypsilanti Lincoln	342	102.4
12	Southgate Anderson	345	95.7
13	Dearborn Fordson	368	77.2
14	Lincoln Park	369	88.7
15	Belleville	397	74.1

Individual

(YES, there is a certain sophomore that isn’t listed here because he debuted this week. He’ll move Pioneer up in the team standings. Glad things are looking up over on Stadium & Main)

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	MSR
1	11	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	205.0
2	10	Jacob Szalay	Saline	194.9
3	11	Pierce Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	194.8
4	10	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	194.1
5	11	Brennan LaRusso	Saline	193.3
6	12	Saman Meshinchi	Saline	192.4
7	12	Collin Eckermann	Saline	189.8
8	9	Wesley Rogan	Saline	189.6
9	9	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson	189.2
10	11	Theo Sacks-Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer	188.0
11	10	John (Jack) Klein	Saline	187.7
12	12	Myles Bray	Monroe	183.8
13	11	Alex Vazquez	Brownstown Woodhaven	181.1
14	10	Carlos Basulto	Saline	180.7
15	12	Nicholas (Nick) Balla	Temperance Bedford	179.8
16	11	Quinn Davis	Ann Arbor Pioneer	179.2
17	10	Vincent Jones	Brownstown Woodhaven	179.2
18	11	Parker Bomia-Laberdee	Monroe	178.6
19	12	Jordan Bunce	Temperance Bedford	175.6
20	10	Walker Ledbetter	Ann Arbor Pioneer	175.0
21	12	Nicholas Balla	Temperance Bedford	172.5
22	11	Dane Hieronimus	Temperance Bedford	171.9
23	9	Jack Dunwoody	Gibraltar Carlson	171.7
24	11	Jason Anderson	Dearborn	170.7
25	10	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt	169.3

Region 6

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Jack Hanner – with the impressive strength of the top teams, you’ll have to go back a distance to find the potential individual qualifiers. Hanner could be one of them, moving from a kid who largely ran above 18 to one dropping a 16:16 at Jackson.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid Season Rank
1	Northville	23	204.6	1
2	Canton	68	196.5	4
3	Livonia Churchill	73	192.9	7
4	Plymouth	96	188.8	13
5	Salem	129	182.1	22
6	Ann Arbor Huron	150	180.0
7	Livonia Stevenson	244	156.3
8	Farmington	247	155.7
9	Detroit U-D Jesuit	275	149.5
10	Detroit Renaissance	311	140.3
11	Wayne Memorial	339	125.7
12	Livonia Franklin	340	127.5
13	Westland John Glenn	365	109.7
14	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	437	83.9

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	MSR
1	11	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	213.2
2	12	Ethan Powell	Northville	210.5
3	11	Ben Hartigan	Northville	206.0
4	12	Joseph Rohmfeld	Livonia Churchill	205.1
5	12	Nick Barretto	Northville	204.1
6	12	Ishaan Kundapur	Northville	201.7
7	10	Brandon Cloud	Northville	200.7
8	12	Chase Wolters	Livonia Churchill	199.7
9	12	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	197.0
10	12	Malcolm Speigle	Livonia Churchill	196.9
11	11	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth	196.8
12	11	Ryan Stojov	Northville	196.4
13	11	Steven Dusseau	Canton	196.2
14	11	Ethan Hertza	Northville	196.0
15	12	Clark Madden	Canton	195.6
16	12	Walker Brose	Ann Arbor Huron	195.5
17	12	Ben Clark	Canton	192.4
18	12	Ben Mussen	Plymouth	191.0
19	10	Jack Hanner	Salem	190.7
20	12	Jonah Kraft	Ann Arbor Huron	188.8
21	12	Benjamin Peura	Farmington	186.2
22	12	Cole Triffle	Canton	185.3
23	11	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth	184.6
24	11	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill	183.3
25	12	Isaac Demetter	Salem	182.9

Region 7

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Jacob Kosidlo – a main reason that Lakeland placed 6^th at Jackson. The signs were there, having run considerably faster at Rambling Rock and in his opener. But the signs are one thing, doing it another, and he performed to the tune of a 27 sec. PR.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid Season Rank
1	White Lake Lakeland	57	183.6	20
2	Highland-Milford	64	187.9	19
3	Detroit Catholic Central	94	178.8
4	Novi	102	176.8
5	Walled Lake Northern	135	172.2
6	Royal Oak	184	166.7
7	South Lyon	194	163.9
8	South Lyon East	225	159.4
9	Beverly Hills Groves	290	148.8
10	West Bloomfield	294	145.2
11	Birmingham Seaholm	327	144.2
12	Brother Rice	355	128.6
13	Berkley	365	133.9
14	North Farmington	370	128.9
15	Walled Lake Central	404	122.2

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	MSR
1	11	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	216.5
2	12	Drew Abbott	Detroit Catholic Central	193.7
3	10	Musa Kay	West Bloomfield	188.7
4	11	Bastien Beaubien	Highland-Milford	188.5
5	11	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland	188.2
6	12	Matthew Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	188.1
7	12	Nolan Till	Royal Oak	187.6
8	10	Trevor Baptist	Novi	185.7
9	12	Jacob Kosidlo	White Lake Lakeland	185.5
10	9	Todd Tobin	Highland-Milford	183.3
11	12	Chase Griffith	Walled Lake Northern	182.7
12	10	Briggs Warren	Novi	182.3
13	11	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central	180.5
14	12	Thomas Watson	Detroit Catholic Central	180.3
15	12	Michael Nivala	White Lake Lakeland	180.0
16	11	Soma Sato	Novi	179.6
17	10	Nathan Bruss	Walled Lake Northern	177.7
18	11	Nolan Collins	Brother Rice	177.7
19	11	Isaac German	Novi	177.1
20	11	Alex Hamilton	North Farmington	176.8
21	12	Jacob Mack	South Lyon East	176.5
22	12	Ayden McDonald	White Lake Lakeland	176.2
23	11	Aiden LaVictor	Beverly Hills Groves	176.1
24	11	Gannon Wheeler	Highland-Milford	175.6
25	12	Ryan Carrannanto	Highland-Milford	175.5

Region 8

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

David Dubeck – 18:45 to 15:59. I think that’s all I have to say! Larry Adams magic is back at hand.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid Season Rank
1	Clarkston	53	193.5	5
2	Oxford	71	190.6	12
3	Troy	112	182.3
4	Lake Orion	112	182.0	27
5	Rochester	121	179.6
6	Troy Athens	156	173.9
7	Rochester Adams	206	165.4
8	Utica Ford	230	161.5
9	Bloomfield Hills	256	158.1
10	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	279	153.3
11	Sterling Heights Stevenson	286	151.5
12	Warren Cousino	294	144.9
13	Waterford Kettering	377	112.8
14	Waterford Mott	445	67.2
15	Warren Mott	468	76.1
16	Sterling Heights	502	5.1

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	MSR
1	12	Alexander McArthur	Oxford	207.8
2	12	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	206.7
3	12	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	206.1
4	11	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	201.5
5	12	James Cusick	Oxford	200.0
6	12	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston	198.9
7	11	Max Houvener	Lake Orion	197.0
8	12	Collin McLaughlin	Rochester	193.6
9	11	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester	193.1
10	11	Evan Owczarek	Rochester	192.6
11	11	David Dubeck	Clarkston	192.3
12	12	Maxton Myrand	Oxford	191.6
13	11	Nate Linden	Troy Athens	190.7
14	12	Jaxson Nowik	Clarkston	190.5
15	12	Raymond Lucero II	Lake Orion	187.6
16	12	Blake Peardon	Lake Orion	185.0
17	12	Myles Linden	Troy Athens	184.7
18	12	Joshua Ellingsworth	Clarkston	184.5
19	12	Aiden Baugh	Waterford Kettering	181.7
20	11	Aaron Hemstreet	Warren Cousino	181.0
21	12	Akshat Arora	Troy	180.1
22	9	Cooper McNaughton	Clarkston	178.1
23	11	Cayden Canham	Oxford	178.1
24	12	Kent Wilson	Clarkston	177.3
25	10	Henry Witt	Troy	176.7

Region 9

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Joseph Kaleto – began his career as a kid in the 20’s, moved down to the 18’s and then 17’s. Now he’s a consistent 16-min. figure and having the Cougars hopeful they can capture County and Regional titles.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid Season Rank
1	Macomb Dakota	52	185.8	15
2	Utica	62	185.6	18
3	Romeo	100	177.9
4	Utica Eisenhower	158	166.2
5	Grosse Pointe South	162	166.8
6	Fraser	179	163.5
7	Warren DeLaSalle	216	158.4
8	Anchor Bay	244	147.8
9	Grosse Pointe North	254	149.4
10	L’Anse Creuse North	273	145.6
11	L’Anse Creuse	280	139.1
12	Chippewa Valley	284	143.2
13	Port Huron Northern	291	139.8
14	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	305	135.6
15	Roseville	490	86.7
16	Port Huron	526	59.5
17	Warren Woods Tower	542	52.2
18	Detroit East English	550	22.3

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	MSR
1	12	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	199.8
2	11	Harper Wesley	Utica	197.9
3	12	Luke Morehouse	Utica	196.8
4	11	James Brickel	Romeo	190.4
5	12	Jack Martin	Grosse Pointe South	188.3
6	12	Aidan Daly	L’Anse Creuse	186.0
7	11	Joseph Kaleto	Macomb Dakota	185.6
8	11	Anthony Frei	Utica Eisenhower	185.6
9	12	Gavin Frandle	Utica	185.2
10	11	Lance Edghill	Fraser	185.0
11	11	Luke Allen	Romeo	183.5
12	11	Andrew Scheloske	Macomb Dakota	183.2
13	12	Greg Vogt	Anchor Bay	181.4
14	11	Charlie Curtis	Utica	181.3
15	11	Oliver Davis	Macomb Dakota	180.6
16	12	Colden Gray	Utica Eisenhower	179.9
17	12	Noah Redman	Macomb Dakota	179.6
18	12	Jensen McCutcheon	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	178.4
19	9	Xavier Solgot	L’Anse Creuse North	178.3
20	12	Alex Habarth	L’Anse Creuse	178.0
21	11	Jacob Giovannini	Macomb Dakota	178.0
22	11	Malcolm Richardson	Warren DeLaSalle	177.1
23	11	Aaron Osterman	Anchor Bay	176.4
24	12	Tethyan McKenzie	Grosse Pointe South	175.5
25	11	Nathan Kafoury	Warren DeLaSalle	175.2