2024 Mid-Season Projections: Division 1 Girls

There are 79 days of competition in Michigan’s cross country season. We’re at Day 43 right now. That’s about as halfway as you’re gonna get. As we’re halfway, we shoot past divisional rankings into mid-season regional projections.

These projections take on the same format as the rankings, just at the regional level now. Real quick:

Ratings are generated via:

• The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
• Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. To be included, a runner must have a rated race in September. There are a few exceptions to that, but the goal is to filter out the unfortunately injured folks. Also, these contain races through September 21st.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

• They account for course conditions and distance
  • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
  • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
• They don’t filter out runners that haven’t competed in awhile
• They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Is one better than the other? The only year (2021) I compared my predictions vs. athletic.net, I correctly predicted 188 of the 216 team qualifiers, a.net simulated 184. 2% difference, but I’ll take it. Last year, I had 192 of those 216 top-3 regional teams. I like my track record. I ain’t no a.net hater either, as I bet I spend more time on there than any human in the US.

Anyhow, as I’ve said on my division rankings, these are for fun. I’m positive in my writings toward everyone, you can be cool toward me. Enjoy.

Region 1

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Gracelin Martin – the Yellow Jacket junior looked at this tough region unfazed and motivated. A 20:13 early at Chippewa Hills gave us a look into what her season could be, the 19:05 at Sparta affirmatively stated her presence as contender here.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Holland West Ottawa	30	144.8	2
2	Rockford	69	130.7	6
3	Grand Haven	88	126.9	8
4	Jenison	110	122.0	15
5	Hudsonville	126	114.8	22
6	Grandville	157	105.3
7	Zeeland West	190	93.8
8	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	217	82.7
9	Greenville	246	72.4
10	Muskegon Mona Shores	289	57.1
11	Grand Rapids Northview	360	21.0
12	Grand Rapids Union	372
13	Wyoming	422

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	MSR
1	12	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	167.4
2	10	Daisy Cox	Rockford	153.4
3	12	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	151.4
4	11	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	144.5
5	12	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	142.2
6	10	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	141.2
7	10	Paige McMeans	Jenison	141.2
8	12	Chloe DeRidder	Grandville	137.8
9	12	Addy Smith	Grand Haven	135.0
10	11	Gracelin Martin	Greenville	134.3
11	9	Jillian Lewakowski	Rockford	131.6
12	12	Natalie Lewis	Rockford	129.5
13	10	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville	128.4
14	12	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	128.4
15	11	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	128.2
16	12	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	127.6
17	9	Morgan Sanders	Rockford	127.0
18	9	Mary Dolbow	Holland West Ottawa	126.3
19	10	Ella Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	125.6
20	10	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	125.4
21	9	Maddy Aleisa	Jenison	123.6
22	11	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	122.8
23	12	Naomi Diekman	Jenison	122.1
24	11	Macy Guikema	Jenison	121.6
25	12	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	116.6

Region 2

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Okemos – mainly because of Rachel Smith. The freshman had run track at the middle school level in Okemos but not cross, thus, she wasn’t on my radar. Anyhow, an immediate impact from this youngster, having raced to three sub-19’s and a win in the initial CAAC Blue Jamboree.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Traverse City West	56	129.1	7
2	Midland Dow	67	133.7	9
3	Okemos	70	125.6	12
4	Traverse City Central	121	110.1	25
5	Bay City Western	134	108.2
6	Midland	166	97.3
7	Grand Ledge	191	92.6
8	East Lansing	232	83.3
9	Mt. Pleasant	242	79.0
10	Holt	251	78.0
11	Alpena	267	70.8
12	Saginaw Heritage	298	59.0
13	Lansing Everett	426

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Victoria Garces	Midland Dow	169.7
2	9	Emilia Garces	Midland Dow	157.1
3	9	Rachel Smith	Okemos	152.7
4	10	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	144.4
5	12	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	139.1
6	11	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	136.8
7	12	Sydney Roberts	Midland Dow	133.7
8	11	October Harns	Okemos	133.7
9	11	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	130.5
10	10	Gabriella Fugazzi	Okemos	129.1
11	9	Emma McLaughlin	Midland	127.4
12	12	Ella Reaves	Holt	126.7
13	11	Bailey Wenzlick	Traverse City West	125.6
14	10	Jaclyn Suderman	Bay City Western	124.4
15	9	Ariana Rajah	Traverse City Central	124.2
16	11	Reese Smith	Traverse City West	121.2
17	12	Alyssa Fouchey	Traverse City West	117.2
18	9	Emily Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	116.6
19	10	Bridget Raven	Traverse City West	115.5
20	9	Emily Barrie	East Lansing	112.2
21	9	Sawyer Lynn	Saginaw Heritage	107.8
22	9	Leighton Basile	Traverse City West	107.8
23	11	Fiona Whitmyer	Okemos	107.2
24	11	Lydia Jagger	Grand Ledge	106.9
25	11	Sienna Cobb	Traverse City Central	106.2

Region 3

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Ottawa Hills – and I love the move into the 19’s from senior Reese Hansen. Hansen had been on the cusp of breaking 20 for each of the past two seasons and has finally come through this fall. That Dan Ebright guy can really coach.

Hannah Dupuis – finds her way here on the heels of a huge breakout at Ottawa Hills. Her 19:36 there was more than 1:30 faster than her race at Riverside in 2023.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Portage Central	51	124.2	10
2	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	96	110.9	23
3	Forest Hills Northern	130	105.0
4	Byron Center	133	102.6
5	Portage Northern	159	103.0
6	Caledonia	164	97.4
7	Forest Hills Central	195	90.2
8	Kalamazoo Central	211	91.0
9	East Kentwood	217	87.2
10	Lowell	233	84.0
11	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	257	77.2
12	Battle Creek Lakeview	268	77.7
13	Mattawan	313	63.4

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Annie Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	144.7
2	11	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	139.8
3	11	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	139.5
4	9	Avery Scott	Portage Central	137.3
5	9	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern	136.1
6	9	Gracie Carlisle	Portage Central	134.5
7	11	Willa Prinsen	Forest Hills Northern	128.3
8	12	Hannah Dupuis	Caledonia	121.8
9	12	Sofia Bogard	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	120.1
10	11	Rhea Mouw	Portage Central	119.5
11	11	Lilah Yoder	Forest Hills Central	119.0
12	9	Cecelia Wojciakowski	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	118.9
13	12	Reese Hansen	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	118.6
14	9	Julia Welc	Portage Central	117.6
15	10	Madeleine Hengeveld	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	113.6
16	9	Jaclyn Charbauski	Forest Hills Northern	112.9
17	9	Claire Mouw	Portage Central	112.0
18	10	Olivia Storteboom	Portage Central	111.6
19	11	Enna Wainer	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	109.8
20	12	Claire O’Boyle	Lowell	106.4
21	11	Donna Haaksma	Byron Center	106.2
22	11	Kailey Mann	Byron Center	106.0
23	12	Alayna Godfrey	East Kentwood	105.8
24	12	Celia Pollock	Byron Center	104.7
25	12	Sydney Law	Byron Center	104.3

Region 4

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Ann Arbor Skyline – the program known to defy expectations. Lucia Llanes has been a nice piece, finishing in the top-10 in both of her SEC Jamborees.

Ella Lorenz – who learned lessons from tough tracks at Averill and Cass Benton. She applied those teachings to a stunning 19:12 at Jackson. The Bulldogs keep roaring.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Brighton	27	135.6	4
2	Hartland	71	121.0	17
3	Ann Arbor Skyline	77	118.8	19
4	Dexter	81	117.5	20
5	Grand Blanc	158	96.7
6	Davison	163	91.9
7	Holly	219	78.4
8	Lapeer	224	75.4
9	Howell	269	56.3
10	Fenton	276	53.8
11	Flushing	325	34.5
12	Swartz Creek	362	15.5
13	Jackson	364

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	152.1
2	9	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline	140.9
3	12	Grace Tykocki	Grand Blanc	138.3
4	10	Ava Goodman	Hartland	136.2
5	12	Elle Bissett	Brighton	133.1
6	11	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	132.7
7	9	Ella Lorenz	Brighton	131.4
8	11	Courtney Lince	Brighton	128.7
9	11	Sophia Nunnery	Hartland	126.8
10	10	Irie Scrase	Ann Arbor Skyline	126.7
11	12	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	126.0
12	11	Elliana Neuer	Hartland	126.0
13	12	Annabel O’Haver	Dexter	125.0
14	11	Nevaeh Polovina	Davison	123.8
15	11	Morgan Christopher	Brighton	121.0
16	10	Kodie Snyder	Dexter	117.4
17	11	Selena White	Brighton	113.3
18	9	Layla Blumberg	Dexter	112.2
19	10	Isla Tharp	Ann Arbor Skyline	112.2
20	10	Maddie Lindley	Holly	109.9
21	9	Hannah DePestel	Hartland	109.6
22	10	Becca Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	107.7
23	12	Addison Bruckman	Dexter	106.7
24	9	Lila Edison	Ann Arbor Skyline	106.5
25	12	Zoe Howard	Hartland	106.1

Region 5

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Adelynn Turck – hidden within the Hornet depth is the improving freshman. Over 22 in her opener, then moving to a 21, next a 20, then a 19:48 on the rolling hills of Sharp Park.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	30	142.7	5
2	Saline	33	138.4	3
3	Brownstown Woodhaven	88	106.7
4	Temperance Bedford	145	76.0
5	Wyandotte Roosevelt	184	61.9
6	Gibraltar Carlson	185	62.8
7	Dearborn	193	56.6
8	Monroe	237	35.2
9	Allen Park	249	28.9
10	Southgate Anderson	260	20.4
11	Belleville	273	24.8
12	Ypsilanti Lincoln	277	18.0

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	9	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer	166.0
2	11	Hana Boggess	Ann Arbor Pioneer	154.8
3	9	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	154.7
4	9	McKinley Jones	Saline	152.4
5	9	Savannah Staton	Saline	148.8
6	9	Charley McKay	Brownstown Woodhaven	140.8
7	12	Corynn Gady	Saline	138.1
8	10	Katarina Munson	Saline	127.8
9	11	Lillian Schlack	Saline	125.0
10	10	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer	123.9
11	12	Grace Roth	Saline	117.4
12	9	Adelynn Turck	Saline	114.9
13	10	Iva Ravindra	Temperance Bedford	114.4
14	12	Clara Peikert	Ann Arbor Pioneer	114.3
15	11	Eleanor Grant	Wyandotte Roosevelt	114.1
16	9	Annabelle Chan	Brownstown Woodhaven	113.6
17	11	Bridget Kerber	Ann Arbor Pioneer	110.4
18	12	Lucy Pike	Ann Arbor Pioneer	106.6
19	12	Raelyn McLaughlin	Brownstown Woodhaven	103.3
20	10	Reagan Reaume	Gibraltar Carlson	98.5
21	10	Adrianna Zub	Allen Park	93.1
22	10	Sophia Johnson	Temperance Bedford	90.4
23	10	Hope Noal	Brownstown Woodhaven	88.2
24	9	Alexis Kmiecik	Brownstown Woodhaven	87.9
25	9	Joy Schuck	Southgate Anderson	86.6

Region 6

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Salem – you may recall Becca Jud having an outstanding close to her sophomore year. Well I can report to you that she’s much quicker heading into the championship stretch, having run 30+ seconds faster at Rambling Rock, Spartan, and Lamplighter.

Ella Bilyk – in order to keep the Mustang tradition rolling, you’re gonna need contributions from unexpected spots. Such as Ella, who took 24-26 minutes to race around courses as a freshman and is now splittin’ mid-20’s.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Northville	46	123.5	11
2	Salem	91	111.1	26
3	Ann Arbor Huron	106	106.0
4	Farmington	118	98.9
5	Livonia Churchill	153	90.9
6	Plymouth	171	87.7
7	Livonia Franklin	177	86.5
8	Canton	185	83.9
9	Livonia Stevenson	198	81.7
10	Farmington Hills Mercy	201	77.0
11	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	304	24.5
12	Detroit Renaissance	366
13	Westland John Glenn	410

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	150.6
2	10	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	149.9
3	12	Lucinda Paliani	Ann Arbor Huron	144.9
4	10	Colette Lozo	Northville	136.5
5	11	Mackenzie Dicken	Plymouth	135.8
6	12	Cassie Garcia	Northville	134.6
7	12	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	134.0
8	11	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill	125.1
9	11	Molly Kate Coates	Northville	122.0
10	11	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	117.0
11	11	Becca Jud	Salem	115.5
12	12	Molly Baracco	Farmington	112.8
13	10	Ella Bilyk	Northville	112.7
14	11	Ellie Jasperson	Northville	111.7
15	11	Kierra Magner	Farmington	110.7
16	10	Julie Schuessler	Livonia Churchill	110.5
17	10	Samantha Bartell	Salem	108.3
18	12	Rosa Brody	Canton	107.6
19	10	Lucia Lachapelle	Northville	107.5
20	12	Ilett Martinez	Wayne Memorial	107.5
21	11	Elise Maurer	Northville	107.2
22	12	Brooklyn Hannah	Livonia Franklin	104.4
23	11	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	103.3
24	9	Mira Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	98.1
25	11	Margo Kaledas	Salem	98.0

Region 7

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Royal Oak – revamping their team culture, changing their training, and running as a pack. Best part is I get to watch it up close and personal.

Cora Liu – now her 4^th year of racing, earned her first sub-20 at the Huron Invite.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	White Lake Lakeland	36	121.4	14
2	Novi	90	106.0
3	Royal Oak	105	99.4
4	Walled Lake Central	136	92.9
5	Walled Lake Northern	147	89.2
6	Highland-Milford	147	90.8
7	Birmingham Seaholm	154	87.2
8	Berkley	177	85.1
9	South Lyon East	242	67.8
10	Beverly Hills Groves	277	58.1
11	North Farmington	303	46.9
12	South Lyon	313	50.3
13	West Bloomfield	386	28.3

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	139.4
2	10	Katelynn Egli	Novi	139.3
3	9	Paige Rohda	Berkley	132.7
4	10	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland	123.8
5	12	Alena Tiernan	White Lake Lakeland	119.6
6	10	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	119.4
7	9	Alexa Siegel	Walled Lake Central	118.6
8	9	Eliana Fredrick	Walled Lake Northern	117.6
9	10	Emily Alt	Walled Lake Northern	115.2
10	12	Cora Liu	North Farmington	114.4
11	10	Morgan Scally	White Lake Lakeland	114.4
12	11	Mya Tass	Novi	110.9
13	9	Alexa Siegal	Walled Lake Central	110.3
14	10	Anna Macdonald	Royal Oak	110.0
15	10	Isabelle Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	109.6
16	10	Genevieve Connolly	White Lake Lakeland	108.8
17	10	Paige Haller	Walled Lake Central	107.1
18	11	Lauren Bradley	Highland-Milford	103.8
19	10	Jane Meinecke	Royal Oak	101.4
20	10	Kareena Babu	Novi	99.9
21	9	Olivia Peterson	Royal Oak	99.0
22	11	Carina Tortelli	Novi	98.4
23	10	Olivia Dixon	Birmingham Seaholm	95.9
24	11	Rachael Wychuyse	Berkley	95.2
25	11	Emma Viggiano	Royal Oak	95.2

Region 8

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Troy – eating my words, Sam Hanson. The Colts are in contention for a State spot, a big boost coming from senior Lia Toltzman, who’s moved from barely breaking 22 to a 20:54 at Jackson.

Ava Thomas – the Highlanders find themselves in the top spot thanks to this gradually improving 9^th grader. 19:59 in the humid Holly hills shows a grittiness that’ll be needed down the stretch.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Rochester Adams	60	120.4	18
2	Rochester	62	121.4	16
3	Clarkston	88	110.5	24
4	Troy	98	104.8
5	Oxford	110	105.8
6	Lake Orion	166	89.1
7	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	184	87.7
8	Bloomfield Hills	186	87.5
9	Troy Athens	240	72.7
10	Utica Ford	299	56.2
11	Warren Mott	359	28.6
12	Warren Cousino	377	17.8
13	Waterford Kettering	401	3.5
14	Sterling Heights Stevenson	447
15	Waterford Mott	458

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	147.5
2	12	Lucy Cook	Rochester	146.9
3	10	El McMahan	Rochester Adams	140.9
4	11	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	137.5
5	11	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	128.6
6	9	Ava Thomas	Rochester Adams	127.2
7	12	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	126.1
8	11	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills	125.5
9	12	Kaitlyn Kauppila	Rochester Adams	124.8
10	10	Addison Brigham	Clarkston	124.5
11	11	Ella Abraham	Rochester	121.9
12	11	Cecilia Kreiter	Rochester Adams	120.6
13	12	Madie Miller	Troy	117.3
14	9	Charlotte Jones	Rochester	115.4
15	10	Avery DeGrendel	Clarkston	115.3
16	11	Taylor Parsons	Rochester	115.2
17	10	Kendal Russette	Clarkston	113.3
18	10	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion	110.7
19	12	Stephanie Bulat	Rochester	107.7
20	10	Paityn Sweet	Clarkston	105.3
21	10	Olivia Jenney	Bloomfield Hills	102.7
22	12	Mia Snellgrove	Rochester	101.0
23	10	Lauren Giroux	Troy	96.8
24	10	Natalie Meldrum	Lake Orion	94.3
25	12	Lia Toltzman	Troy	94.1

Region 9

Summer Projections

Any surprises?

Macomb Dakota – graduating Harberts and Belmont, but finding drastic improvement from Julia Timpa, helping the Cougars reload on the run. The senior’s 20:01 at Jackson was a personal best and nearly 1.5 minutes faster than her performance on the same course last year.

Sarah Koval – been quite the journey for the girl who began her career above 30 min. A personal best in her opener had to have been a major confidence boost, as it led to the girl that won the first MAC White Jamboree, then raced to a 20:10 at Willow.

Team

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Mid-Season Rank
1	Romeo	15	149.1	1
2	Utica	73	122.2	13
3	Macomb Dakota	84	115.3	21
4	Fraser	103	109.0	27
5	Grosse Pointe South	134	97.8
6	Utica Eisenhower	188	82.9
7	Port Huron Northern	213	74.3
8	Chippewa Valley	215	73.8
9	L’Anse Creuse North	251	65.3
10	Grosse Pointe North	287	55.9
11	Anchor Bay	330	43.4
12	L’Anse Creuse	372	13.2
13	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	377	24.6
14	Warren Woods Tower	444

Individual

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	160.1
2	10	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	150.4
3	12	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	145.8
4	12	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	145.1
5	12	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	144.3
6	11	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	144.0
7	11	Brooke McFarland	Utica	134.9
8	12	Grace Grupido	Fraser	133.2
9	11	Ella Goodsell	Romeo	130.1
10	10	Emma Brown	Utica	129.0
11	11	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	128.5
12	12	Sophia Aquino	Utica	128.0
13	11	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	125.8
14	10	Aubrey Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	123.3
15	12	Julia Timpa	Macomb Dakota	116.3
16	11	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	116.0
17	12	Sarah Koval	Grosse Pointe South	111.5
18	10	Maggie Baginski	Utica Eisenhower	108.2
19	11	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern	107.1
20	12	Mylene Pham	Macomb Dakota	106.4
21	11	Jacalyn Yakel	Utica Eisenhower	104.1
22	11	Kate Molloy	Fraser	103.3
23	12	Adelina Parikh	Grosse Pointe South	102.6
24	11	Ryann Smitka	Macomb Dakota	102.0
25	10	Alice Foley	Fraser	101.3