The above link contains the best explanation of the year.
Week 4
Mid-Season Projections – Boys
Mid-Season Projections – Girls
These rankings contain meets through Saturday (9/28). If a runner has had a rated race since September 1st, they’re included (sadly, I have to account for injured athletes). These are for fun and done for free. Enjoy!

Recap
It was a rough smooth two week stretch for Northville. The Mustangs handled business on their usual trip out of Michigan. Chicago in 2022, Roy Griak in 2023, then on September 21st, a trip to the famed Blue River XC Course. For Michigan’s top-ranked team facing the best of Indiana, 24 total points and all five scorers under 16:10.
Meanwhile on that same date, many of the top-10 boys showed up to Jackson. Following a few weeks off, rested and ready to roll, Livonia Churchill was able to put three in the 15’s and have just enough from Wojtkowicz and Morche, claiming victory in a field as close to the D1 Finals as you’ll see in September.
Looking Forward
Whereas in previous weeks, the top teams went their separate ways, in early October, they’re now all entering the fray. Clarkston looks to be the Oakland County favorite, Canton and Livonia Churchill will duel at Willow (projections for both coming tomorrow), and Portage has:
#1 Northville
#2 Brighton
#3 Jenison
#6 Saline
#8 Kalamazoo Central
#9 Grand Haven
#10 Traverse City Central
Amongst many others.
Top 27
| Rank | Team | Score | Region | Top 5 Avg. | Last Week |
| 1 | Northville | 84 | 6 | 204.6 | 1 |
| 2 | Brighton | 254 | 4 | 197.4 | 3 |
| 3 | Jenison | 263 | 1 | 198.5 | 2 |
| 4 | Canton | 368 | 6 | 195.9 | 4 |
| 5 | Livonia Churchill | 391 | 6 | 194.6 | 7 |
| 6 | Saline | 412 | 5 | 192.7 | 6 |
| 7 | Clarkston | 429 | 8 | 192.9 | 5 |
| 8 | Kalamazoo Central | 456 | 3 | 192.4 | 21 |
| 9 | Grand Haven | 466 | 1 | 193.7 | 8 |
| 10 | Traverse City Central | 506 | 2 | 191.0 | 11 |
| 11 | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 541 | 5 | 193.6 | NR |
| 12 | Portage Central | 550 | 3 | 189.2 | 10 |
| 13 | East Kentwood | 556 | 3 | 190.8 | 9 |
| 14 | Oxford | 559 | 8 | 191.9 | 12 |
| 15 | Forest Hills Central | 609 | 3 | 189.9 | 17 |
| 16 | Plymouth | 633 | 6 | 188.9 | 13 |
| 17 | Utica | 679 | 9 | 188.3 | 18 |
| 18 | Macomb Dakota | 722 | 9 | 186.1 | 15 |
| 19 | Rockford | 742 | 1 | 185.0 | 14 |
| 20 | Midland | 775 | 2 | 185.1 | 16 |
| 21 | Okemos | 791 | 2 | 185.3 | NR |
| 22 | Highland-Milford | 806 | 7 | 187.9 | 19 |
| 23 | White Lake Lakeland | 811 | 7 | 183.7 | 20 |
| 24 | Traverse City West | 833 | 2 | 184.5 | 23 |
| 25 | Caledonia | 870 | 3 | 183.4 | 24 |
| 26 | Salem | 892 | 6 | 182.1 | 22 |
| 27 | Dexter | 973 | 4 | 183.5 | 25 |

Recap
It’s been all red and pink. I thought that Holland West Ottawa’s performance at FlashRock was the best of their year, the pink Panthers were able to outdo that at Otsego. Both were wins, the former against Indiana’s best, the latter containing seven WO girls under 19.
Setting the standard for the past 1.5 seasons has been Romeo, performing in this two week stretch in the same manner that the Bulldogs always have. A perfect score in the MAC Red Championship, preceded by placing six in the top-20 at Sharp Park.
Looking Forward
They’ve been flexing muscles separately all year long. Under the Lights, Holly, FlashRock, Jackson, Otsego, now a meeting. Romeo and Holland West Ottawa. This is as close to a State Final preview as you’ll find. The main question in comparing the two teams is Romeo’s 3rd through 6th vs. West Ottawa’s 2nd through 6th. The numbers thus far have shown that Romeo’s pack is slightly ahead of West Ottawa. The race isn’t run on numbers.
Yes, there are other teams in the state. With the addition of Ella Abraham, Rochester’s Falcons have asserted themselves as the favorite in Oakland County. Everyone else in the top-10 is Portage.
Top 27
| Rank | Team | Score | Region | Top 5 Avg. | Last Week |
| 1 | Romeo | 82 | 9 | 150.5 | 1 |
| 2 | Holland West Ottawa | 133 | 1 | 149.1 | 2 |
| 3 | Saline | 235 | 5 | 140.0 | 3 |
| 4 | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 272 | 5 | 143.4 | 5 |
| 5 | Brighton | 290 | 4 | 135.6 | 4 |
| 6 | Rockford | 334 | 1 | 133.7 | 6 |
| 7 | Okemos | 413 | 2 | 133.3 | 12 |
| 8 | Traverse City West | 439 | 2 | 129.2 | 7 |
| 9 | Rochester | 474 | 8 | 129.0 | 16 |
| 10 | Grand Haven | 493 | 1 | 128.0 | 8 |
| 11 | Portage Central | 524 | 3 | 125.0 | 10 |
| 12 | Midland Dow | 530 | 2 | 134.2 | 9 |
| 13 | Northville | 538 | 6 | 124.6 | 11 |
| 14 | Jenison | 584 | 1 | 122.7 | 15 |
| 15 | Utica | 592 | 9 | 123.1 | 13 |
| 16 | White Lake Lakeland | 623 | 7 | 121.4 | 14 |
| 17 | Dexter | 634 | 4 | 120.8 | 20 |
| 18 | Hartland | 652 | 4 | 120.9 | 17 |
| 19 | Ann Arbor Skyline | 669 | 4 | 120.2 | 19 |
| 20 | Rochester Adams | 688 | 8 | 119.8 | 18 |
| 21 | Macomb Dakota | 779 | 9 | 116.0 | 21 |
| 22 | Hudsonville | 791 | 1 | 115.6 | 22 |
| 23 | Clarkston | 813 | 8 | 114.5 | 24 |
| 24 | Bay City Western | 853 | 2 | 115.3 | NR |
| 25 | Traverse City Central | 880 | 2 | 112.7 | 25 |
| 26 | Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills | 915 | 3 | 110.9 | 23 |
| 27 | Ann Arbor Huron | 927 | 6 | 112.3 | NR |
Individual Rankings
Recap
Two weeks ago, we were heavily anticipating a Jackson Invite. Cooler early morning temps, Kyle O’Rourke traversing an easier, Aidan Pengelly assuring an honest pace. Neither of the two disappointed, neither did any of the field. Sharp Park was home to five of the six fastest D1 times in the State. O’Rourke pulled away in the second mile, creating enough of a gap to ensure a 15:08 victory. Carter Livermore has quietly been racking up outstanding races, he was 2nd. Pengelly crushed his previous PR.
The lone man that didn’t run at Jackson and was able to break into that top-six was Seth Conner, whose 15:16 at Otsego showed that he’s a few weeks ahead of last year’s schedule.
Thankfully, we received a debut. Kamari Ronfeldt on the way back, taking no time in finding a win in the second SEC Jamboree. The Pioneer course isn’t the easiest ever, he was still able to cruise to victory in 15:46.
Looking Forward
Three separate spots for matchups: Oakland County, Wayne County, and Portage.
Kyle O’Rourke going for his first Oakland crown, hoping to use course knowledge to earn a victory.
Just as the teams will vie for points in the pack, Joey Rohmfeld and Aidan Pengelly will face off near the front. Of course, they’ll be joined by a Colin Murray. We saw Murray come back on the two at Rambling Rock, we’ll see if the D1 kids will alter their approach to attain a win.
And of course – Portage. Seth Conner riding the high of last week, perhaps Kamari Ronfeldt in the purple, Carter Livermore, Ethan Powell, and a gang of others.
Top 30
| Rank | Grade | Name | Team | Rating |
| 1 | 11 | Kyle O’Rourke | Highland-Milford | 216.5 |
| 2 | 10 | Jack MacGregor | Howell | 212.6 |
| 3 | 11 | Aiden Pengelly | Canton | 212.4 |
| 4 | 10 | Kamari Ronfeldt | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 211.4 |
| 5 | 12 | Carter Livermore | Grandville | 210.6 |
| 6 | 12 | Ethan Powell | Northville | 210.5 |
| 7 | 12 | Seth Conner | Jenison | 210.3 |
| 8 | 12 | Alexander McArthur | Oxford | 207.8 |
| 9 | 12 | Joseph Rohmfeld | Livonia Churchill | 207.3 |
| 10 | 12 | Taye Levenson | Bloomfield Hills | 207.3 |
| 11 | 11 | Jackson Lam | Kalamazoo Loy Norrix | 206.1 |
| 12 | 11 | Ben Hartigan | Northville | 206.0 |
| 13 | 12 | Kian Schneeweis | Troy | 205.6 |
| 14 | 11 | Beckett Crooks | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 205.0 |
| 15 | 10 | Luka Hammond | Grand Haven | 205.0 |
| 16 | 12 | Nick Barretto | Northville | 204.0 |
| 17 | 12 | Tyler Brock | Brighton | 203.2 |
| 18 | 12 | Julian Linebaugh | Dexter | 203.0 |
| 19 | 10 | Ben Romero | Forest Hills Central | 202.7 |
| 20 | 11 | Ryan Barnes | Clarkston | 202.5 |
| 21 | 11 | Ian Morgan | Okemos | 201.8 |
| 22 | 12 | Ishaan Kundapur | Northville | 201.7 |
| 23 | 12 | James Cusick | Oxford | 201.5 |
| 24 | 12 | Ben Eisnor | Grand Haven | 201.4 |
| 25 | 12 | Lucas LaMilza | Macomb Dakota | 201.1 |
| 26 | 12 | Sawyer McCarthy | Forest Hills Central | 200.9 |
| 27 | 11 | Aron Gal | Grand Haven | 200.8 |
| 28 | 10 | Brandon Cloud | Northville | 200.7 |
| 29 | 12 | Parker Strelecki | Jenison | 200.5 |
| 30 | 12 | Evan Nickoles | East Kentwood | 200.1 |
Recap
Winning wings were indeed spread, both in Indiana and Michigan. Sub-17’s at each, both contributions to a national top-10 ranking for Helen Sachs (it’s on MileSplit and you have to pay, such a racket. Just trust me).
Taking a careful approach and likely shooting for a November/December peak, Victoria Garces opened with a 17:17 at Cadillac, then followed with a 17:26 at Shepherd. Both were wins, both solidifying her status as one of Michigan’s top runners.
Always saving her best for the State Finals, Lucy Cook gave us a preview of her condition. Facing great competition from Natasza Dudek, Cook was able to summon just enough in Jackson’s finishing stretch to claim a win, 17:26.2 to 17:27.5.
Looking Forward
Going for four straight Oakland County crowns will be Lucy Cook. Finn, DaDamio, Belf, Goethals, Osika – none of those girls have won four County titles. Only one, Katie Boyles can make that claim. Lucy has always displayed patience while racing, a necessity to conquer the infamous double hill and emerge victorious. We’ll see if she can pull it off.
At Portage, Helen Sachs will be up to her usual shenanigans, laying waste to the field up front, hoping to set an example for her fellow Panthers looking to hit an upset. Freshmen that have already proved they can handle the sublime experience, Rachel Smith, McKinley Jones, and Natasza Dudek will gain even more of it on the star-studded Portage West MS grounds.
Top 30
| Rank | Grade | Name | Team | Rating |
| 1 | 12 | Helen Sachs | Holland West Ottawa | 176.7 |
| 2 | 12 | Victoria Garces | Midland Dow | 170.5 |
| 3 | 9 | Natasza Dudek | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 167.2 |
| 4 | 9 | Rachel Smith | Okemos | 162.3 |
| 5 | 11 | Natalia Guaresimo | Romeo | 160.0 |
| 6 | 9 | Emilia Garces | Midland Dow | 159.0 |
| 7 | 11 | Hana Boggess | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 154.9 |
| 8 | 9 | Sienna Klemmer | Ann Arbor Pioneer | 154.5 |
| 9 | 9 | McKinley Jones | Saline | 154.0 |
| 10 | 12 | Lucy Cook | Rochester | 153.6 |
| 11 | 10 | Daisy Cox | Rockford | 152.9 |
| 12 | 12 | Mallory Bigelow | Oxford | 152.5 |
| 13 | 11 | Lydia LaMarra | Brighton | 152.1 |
| 14 | 10 | Annie Hrabovsky | Romeo | 151.7 |
| 15 | 12 | Valerie Beeck | Grand Haven | 151.4 |
| 16 | 12 | Kaelin Hughes | Livonia Stevenson | 150.5 |
| 17 | 10 | Annabeth Hazlewood | Salem | 149.9 |
| 18 | 12 | Annie Alkema | Kalamazoo Central | 148.9 |
| 19 | 9 | Savannah Staton | Saline | 148.8 |
| 20 | 12 | Lillian Deskins | Romeo | 148.2 |
| 21 | 12 | Violet Hrabovsky | Romeo | 146.8 |
| 22 | 12 | Olivia Purdy | Romeo | 145.8 |
| 23 | 10 | Collette Wierks | Holland West Ottawa | 144.9 |
| 24 | 11 | Leah Corby | Rochester Hills Stoney Creek | 144.9 |
| 25 | 12 | Emma Gunnett | Holland West Ottawa | 144.8 |
| 26 | 11 | Ava Porras | Holland West Ottawa | 144.7 |
| 27 | 11 | Emmerson Clor | Romeo | 144.5 |
| 28 | 10 | Tessa Mascari | Traverse City West | 144.4 |
| 29 | 12 | Isabelle Becker | Bay City Western | 143.5 |
| 30 | 12 | Corynn Gady | Saline | 142.7 |
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