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Championship Season Projections

Started early with the simulations! Maybe I’ll pen another explanation this year, maybe I’ll just continually quote last year’s regional posts. I’m gonna do the latter for now and pray that some free time arises in the next few weeks.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner TimeTanner RatingTanner Avg.Tanner StDev.
15:30210  
15:45205  
16:00200  
16:15195  
16:301902007.91
MIXCSR TimeMIXCSR RatingMIXCSR Avg.MIXCSR StDev.
16:09197  
16:12196  
16:15195  
16:18194  
16:211931951.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

RaceTanner Avg.Tanner StDevTanner RatingMIXCSR Avg.MIXCSR StDevMIXCSR Rating
12007.9202.11951.6195.6
22007.9196.21951.6194.1
32007.9190.01951.6199.2
42007.9193.41951.6192.5
52007.9206.81951.6195.7
62007.9201.81951.6196.1
72007.9171.61951.6194.9
82007.9189.21951.6195.9
92007.9205.51951.6197.0
102007.9203.81951.6192.6
112007.9192.31951.6196.5
122007.9196.91951.6196.4
132007.9198.51951.6195.6
142007.9203.21951.6194.1
152007.9193.91951.6192.6
162007.9199.31951.6193.2
172007.9208.71951.6194.2
182007.9213.71951.6194.6
192007.9212.61951.6197.1
202007.9206.31951.6193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Since this is an election year and if you’re anything like me, following Nate Silver/538/Nate Cohn religiously, you’ll find that election models and speed ratings are very similar! For instance, here’s 538’s national polling average, which would equate to a runner’s average speed rating. Election models weigh polls based on their sample size, margin of error, past biases, and recency. I weigh races based on recency, sample size, and their competitiveness. Election models spit out a forecast, which runs simulations based on the polls, their weights, and other factors. These are essentially a forecast as well, simulations based on weighted average and variability. People get incensed at these statisticians on Twitter and I’m sure kids grumble about me at XC practice. 🙂

I know many of these meets have trophies that are split into divisions, but they’re all run as one single race. It’s a pain to separate, filter, and score those divisions and I’m just getting used to running simulations after 11 months away. So for now, these are scored as they’re run – one race.

OAKLAND COUNTY

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Clarkston87
2Oxford118
3Highland-Milford149
4Troy206
5Lake Orion210
6Rochester220
7Detroit Catholic Central223
8Novi263
9Walled Lake Northern273
10Troy Athens322
11Holly337
12Royal Oak382
13Royal Oak Shrine411
14Detroit Country Day412
15Rochester Adams427
16South Lyon441
17South Lyon East524
18Farmington544
19Rochester Hills Stoney Creek557
20Bloomfield Hills559
21Pontiac Notre Dame Prep585
22Rochester Hills Lutheran NW612
23West Bloomfield640
24Beverly Hills Groves641
25Orchard Lake St. Mary’s649
26Auburn Hills Oakland Christian749
27Birmingham Seaholm769
28Berkley785
29Brother Rice799
30North Farmington843
31Waterford Kettering907
32Madison Heights Lamphere935
33Walled Lake Western952
34Novi Christian Academy1013
35Walled Lake Central1044
36Clawson1051
37Waterford Mott1090
38Oak Park1119
39Auburn Hills Avondale1205

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Kyle O’RourkeHighland-Milford
212Alexander McArthurOxford
312Taye LevensonBloomfield Hills
411Abenezer CeroneRoyal Oak Shrine
512Kian SchneeweisTroy
611Ryan BarnesClarkston
712James CusickOxford
812Cayden DeGrendelClarkston
912Drew AbbottDetroit Catholic Central
1011Max HouvenerLake Orion
1111Nate LindenTroy Athens
1211Dylan PascoeRochester
1312Collin McLaughlinRochester
1412Maxton MyrandOxford
1511David DubeckClarkston
1611Evan OwczarekRochester
179Nole LorenzenRochester Hills Lutheran NW
1811Bastien BeaubienHighland-Milford
1912Raymond Lucero IILake Orion
2010Musa KayWest Bloomfield
2112Nolan TillRoyal Oak
2212Myles LindenTroy Athens
2312Chase GriffithWalled Lake Northern
2410Broden LaddHolly
2510Trevor BaptistNovi
2612Joshua EllingsworthClarkston
2712Blake PeardonLake Orion
2812Isaak BrookPontiac Notre Dame Prep
299Todd TobinHighland-Milford
3012Benjamin PeuraFarmington
3112Jaxson NowikClarkston
3212Jacob HopkinsDetroit Country Day
3311Finn GammerathWalled Lake Northern
3410Briggs WarrenNovi
3511Gavin TischDetroit Catholic Central
3612Aiden BaughWaterford Kettering
3711Cole WisniewskiOrchard Lake St. Mary’s
3811Cayden CanhamOxford
399Cooper McNaughtonClarkston
4010Trevor MurphyHolly
4112Thomas WatsonDetroit Catholic Central
4211Soma SatoNovi
4311Aiden LaVictorBeverly Hills Groves
4410Nathan BrussWalled Lake Northern
4511Alex HamiltonNorth Farmington
4610Omar ElbashirDetroit Country Day
4712Kent WilsonClarkston
4811Nolan CollinsBrother Rice
4911Isaac GermanNovi
5011Isaac ClarkTroy

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Rochester99
2Rochester Adams146
3Clarkston173
4Farmington228
5Royal Oak238
6Oxford242
7Novi248
8Troy259
9Walled Lake Northern276
10Pontiac Notre Dame Prep327
11Rochester Hills Stoney Creek388
12Birmingham Seaholm389
13Lake Orion394
14Walled Lake Central411
15Bloomfield Hills415
16Highland-Milford428
17Berkley431
18Detroit Country Day447
19Auburn Hills Oakland Christian486
20South Lyon East559
21Farmington Hills Mercy578
22Holly609
23Troy Athens614
24Bloomfield Hills Marian624
25Royal Oak Shrine624
26South Lyon684
27Orchard Lake St. Mary’s696
28Beverly Hills Groves735
29Oak Park748
30North Farmington807
31Madison Heights Lamphere969
32West Bloomfield997
33Wixom St. Catherine998
34Rochester Hills Lutheran NW1020
35Walled Lake Western1042
36Waterford Kettering1093
37Novi Christian Academy1115
38Southfield Christian1178
39Academy of the Sacred Heart1187
40Waterford Mott1226

PlaceGradeNameTeam
112Lucy CookRochester
212Mallory BigelowOxford
311Leah CorbyRochester Hills Stoney Creek
412Mea D’AgostinoOrchard Lake St. Mary’s
510Katelynn EgliNovi
610El McMahanRochester Adams
712Eliza KeithAuburn Hills Oakland Christian
89Paige RohdaBerkley
912Catherine SteeleFarmington
1011Ella AbrahamRochester
1112Taylor BrodeurOxford
1211Audrey HamiltonTroy
139Ava ThomasRochester Adams
1410Addison BrighamClarkston
1511Addison HerrBloomfield Hills
1612Kaitlyn KauppilaRochester Adams
1712Maria NunningPontiac Notre Dame Prep
1811Taylor ParsonsRochester
199Eliana FredrickWalled Lake Northern
2011Cecilia KreiterRochester Adams
2110Emily AltWalled Lake Northern
2210Jillian BroylesHighland-Milford
2310Avery DeGrendelClarkston
249Charlotte JonesRochester
2512Madie MillerTroy
2610Kendal RussetteClarkston
2710Allie GallagherWalled Lake Northern
2811Nora GerzemaFarmington Hills Mercy
2910Linda LopezLake Orion
3012Cora LiuNorth Farmington
319Alexa SiegelWalled Lake Central
3210Claire PorinskySouth Lyon East
3312Natalie GibbsBirmingham Roeper
3410Anna MacdonaldRoyal Oak
3512Molly BaraccoFarmington
3611Kierra MagnerFarmington
3712Stephanie BulatRochester
3812Skylar VanheckePontiac Notre Dame Prep
3911Mya TassNovi
4012Nell StoverDetroit Country Day
4110Olivia JenneyBloomfield Hills
429Olivia PetersonRoyal Oak
439Alexa SiegalWalled Lake Central
4410Jane MeineckeRoyal Oak
4510Paige HallerWalled Lake Central
4610Paityn SweetClarkston
4712Mia SnellgroveRochester
4811Kayla WardSouth Lyon
4911Annabelle EllenbogenDetroit Country Day
5010Maddie LindleyHolly

GREATER FLINT

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Frankenmuth82
2Flint Powers Catholic93
3Davison129
4Corunna158
5Hartland191
6Grand Blanc204
7Fenton210
8Flint Kearsley224
9Goodrich253
10Flushing254
11Lapeer294
12Lake Fenton360
13Otisville LakeVille399
14Swartz Creek400
15Owosso403
16Dryden411
17Ovid-Elsie461
18Almont491
19Ortonville Brandon513
20Linden518
21Montrose570
22New Lothrop570
23Chesaning594
24Genesee Christian Academy690
25Burton-Bendle753
26Genesee828
27Mt Morris864

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Bryce GrossFlint Powers Catholic
29Lennox NaswellFlint Powers Catholic
311Vincent PattisonGoodrich
412James LatstetterFlushing
512Jack LillywhiteFlint Kearsley
612Simon ErfourthOwosso
79Gavin KaticFenton
812Jacob EssenmacherLapeer
910Nicklas ParkerFrankenmuth
1011Tyler LeachOtisville LakeVille
1111Brett MagnusFrankenmuth
1212Ethan SellersFlint Kearsley
1312Bobby DonleyCorunna
1411Anthony PlanaFrankenmuth
1512Luke MeyerDavison
1612Cougar ClarkFrankenmuth
1711Braden ShiposhHartland
1811Noah LinstromDavison
1910Ezra NellisCorunna
2010Levi MayerDavison
2111Payton ChandlerCorunna
2211Cole PergramFrankenmuth
2312Maxwell MerrillGrand Blanc
2411Cole FernandezFlint Kearsley
2511Thomas BeiterFlint Powers Catholic
2612Tanner SmithDavison
2711Jonny StrilerSwartz Creek
289Gerard GilmourFenton
2912Cole WinterGoodrich
3010Ben BoucheyFlint Powers Catholic
3111Griffin GoodFlushing
3211Charlie SmithGrand Blanc
3312Jaxon StrauchCorunna
349Wyatt RobertsOtisville LakeVille
3511Brodie LicataLake Fenton
369Ryan RathsburgFlint Powers Catholic
3711Caleb CarignanFlint Powers Catholic
389Gerard GilmoreFenton
3910Connor O’ReillyDavison
4012Jaylen WildmanFlushing
4111William DeanGrand Blanc
4212Clay PowellOvid-Elsie
4310Ethan HawkinsHartland
4412Jack CostaHartland
4511Maximillian BladzikGrand Blanc
4611Wyatt ShawHartland
4710Cooper SteckrothLake Fenton
4810Hayden PreisterHartland
4910Lucas KeilenHartland
5011Cohen ParilLapeer

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Goodrich42
2Hartland77
3Linden121
4Frankenmuth137
5Davison160
6Grand Blanc179
7Owosso185
8Flint Powers Catholic236
9Lapeer253
10Lake Fenton306
11Corunna332
12Flint Kearsley368
13Fenton377
14Flushing404
15Almont414
16Genesee Christian Academy439
17Dryden444
18Ovid-Elsie447
19Chesaning460
20New Lothrop516
21Ortonville Brandon521
22Swartz Creek534
23Montrose687
24Mt Morris788

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Natalie FoltzFrankenmuth
210Alivia OttingerGoodrich
312Grace EvanoffFlint Powers Catholic
412Grace TykockiGrand Blanc
510Ava GoodmanHartland
612Kamryn LauingerGoodrich
79Kayla ShellenbargerGoodrich
812Layla JordanGoodrich
910Addison JosephsonLinden
1011Sophia NunneryHartland
1111Elliana NeuerHartland
1211Nevaeh PolovinaDavison
1311Samantha BrownClio
1410Lucy ConzelmannFrankenmuth
1510Claire BrownGoodrich
1612Avery ByrneGoodrich
1710Melody MeckstrothLinden
1810Baylor LauingerGoodrich
1912Chloe JosephsonLinden
2010Brooklyn WiltseDavison
219Hannah DePestelHartland
2211Elise BardenFrankenmuth
2312Josie JenkinsonOwosso
2412Grace MurphyFlint Powers Catholic
2512Julionna WestOwosso
2610Sidney ShepardLinden
2712Olivia GartrellDavison
2812Zoe HowardHartland
2912Hayven ThielCorunna
3011Lilah WeberLapeer
3110Elliana HuftonLake Fenton
3211Ivy ForrestDavison
3312Natalie SummerlandOwosso
3412Brooke SonnenbergGenesee Christian Academy
3511Cara PrusakiewiczDryden
3610Jaidyn NickelsCorunna
379Mila VillarrealFlint Powers Catholic
3812Camden EssenmacherHartland
399Leah HumphreyGrand Blanc
409Abby CrandellOwosso
419Ana LovellLake Fenton
4210Olivia LinskiHartland
4311Nadia CordesLapeer
4410Molly GaudardFlint Kearsley
459Livia WillingGrand Blanc
4610Paige WillmanLake Fenton
479Molly RobertsLinden
489Averie SchonsLapeer
4910Micali TeepleGrand Blanc
5012Taryn CravenFenton

WAYNE COUNTY

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Canton56
2Livonia Churchill58
3Plymouth90
4Salem115
5New Boston Huron178
6Flat Rock210
7Dearborn Divine Child289
8Livonia Stevenson307
9Grosse Pointe North307
10Detroit U-D Jesuit351
11Dearborn354
12Allen Park368
13Redford Union368
14Detroit Renaissance447
15Lutheran Westland463
16Riverview Gabriel Richard463
17Wyandotte Roosevelt486
18Livonia Franklin533
19Wayne Memorial575
20Plymouth Christian Academy597
21Dearborn Fordson598
22Westland John Glenn630
23Allen Park Cabrini638
24Riverview692
25Belleville696
26Southgate Anderson705
27Trenton732
28Lincoln Park779
29Dearborn Heights Crestwood805
30Dearborn Henry Ford Academy878
31Garden City880
32Melvindale887
33Detroit East English910

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Aiden PengellyCanton
212Colin MurrayDearborn Divine Child
312Joseph RohmfeldLivonia Churchill
412Chase WoltersLivonia Churchill
512Lucas KuhnNew Boston Huron
612Malcolm SpeigleLivonia Churchill
711Jacob StanislawskiFlat Rock
811Lucas LaPointePlymouth
912Jack ChadwickPlymouth
1012Clark MaddenCanton
1111Steven DusseauCanton
1211Luke DuleckiNew Boston Huron
1310Jack HannerSalem
1412Ben ClarkCanton
1512Ben MussenPlymouth
169Mourad AlgahmiDearborn Fordson
1712Nathan VargoFlat Rock
1811Hudson WojtkowiczLivonia Churchill
1912Cole TriffleCanton
2011Adrian ClarkePlymouth
2110Jacob FerdubinskiRiverview Gabriel Richard
2212Isaac DemetterSalem
2312Ethan MorcheLivonia Churchill
2410Austin MercadoSalem
2511Lucas TaraszkiewiczFlat Rock
2612Aaron MessingLivonia Stevenson
2712Adam DickenCanton
2812Teo CondevauxLivonia Churchill
2911Parker SzymczakSalem
3011John NiemenskiSalem
3112Max MartinSalem
3211Jaden DingSalem
3312Caleb KoselGrosse Pointe North
3410Tyler BjorklundLivonia Churchill
3511Daniel NiehausPlymouth
3611Tobin CollinsCanton
3711Emmanuel MehariPlymouth Christian Academy
3810Noah AmoriWyandotte Roosevelt
3911Jason AndersonDearborn
4012Kyle BillerNew Boston Huron
4111Jackson RabyAllen Park
4210Justin MkrtumianDetroit U-D Jesuit
439Simon ReedPlymouth Christian Academy
4410Cameron CraneNew Boston Huron
4511Max BrannanLutheran Westland
4612Diego Islas-MontantesPlymouth
4710William BalasiaDetroit U-D Jesuit
4811Marcel LakeDetroit Renaissance
4911Tommy BuckalewWestland John Glenn
509Landen MartellPlymouth

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Salem85
2Dearborn Divine Child118
3Livonia Franklin125
4Livonia Churchill146
5Plymouth178
6Canton180
7Livonia Stevenson217
8New Boston Huron225
9Trenton250
10Wyandotte Roosevelt288
11Grosse Pointe North290
12Dearborn331
13Plymouth Christian Academy386
14Dearborn Heights Crestwood404
15Allen Park428
16Belleville451
17Allen Park Cabrini464
18Southgate Anderson464
19Lutheran Westland470
20Garden City550
21Detroit Renaissance560
22Dearborn Fordson583
23Wayne Memorial619
24Detroit University Prep665
25Westland John Glenn736
26Dearborn Henry Ford Academy744
27Detroit International Academy862

PlaceGradeNameTeam
110Annabeth HazlewoodSalem
212Kaelin HughesLivonia Stevenson
312Ava PetersLivonia Franklin
411Mackenzie DickenPlymouth
511Rianna RadulescuLivonia Churchill
611Avery TurkNew Boston Huron
711Becca JudSalem
811Eleanor GrantWyandotte Roosevelt
911Eleanor ColeLutheran Westland
1010Julie SchuesslerLivonia Churchill
1112Marisa ChueyTrenton
1212Kathryn KurtinaitisDearborn Divine Child
1310Samantha BartellSalem
1412Rosa BrodyCanton
1512Ilett MartinezWayne Memorial
1612Brooklyn HannahLivonia Franklin
1712Megan WoelkersFlat Rock
1811Falyn DossNew Boston Huron
1911Kinsey NordbeckLivonia Franklin
2012Tess SciclunaDearborn Divine Child
2112Kayla SladeDearborn Divine Child
2211Rachael HalkeyLivonia Churchill
2311Madi HarePlymouth Christian Academy
2411Margo KaledasSalem
2511Anna KujansuuDearborn Divine Child
2610Kayla ChristesenNew Boston Huron
2711Caroline LaPointePlymouth
289Lucy MorrowLivonia Franklin
299Jamie GlatfelterTrenton
3010Adrianna ZubAllen Park
319Deirdre O’ConnellAllen Park Cabrini
3210Leah GrezakLivonia Stevenson
339Joy SchuckSouthgate Anderson
3412Ashlei AnatalioGrosse Pointe North
3511Natalie WorkmanLivonia Churchill
3611Mia FernandezCanton
3711Sarah WazneDearborn Heights Crestwood
3812Alaa SelmanDearborn Heights Crestwood
3911Elizabeth SalinasDearborn Divine Child
4011Simona HoriaDearborn
4110Addie JonesSalem
429Chloe CratsenburgPlymouth
4310Liv BrodyCanton
4412Yana ChamisoCanton
4512Mercedes DziendzielWyandotte Roosevelt
4612Devyn DoreyTrenton
4712Katie MadiganGrosse Pointe North
4812Isabel Farley-GillayPlymouth
4912Jillian WygonikDearborn Divine Child
509Joelle SaadDearborn

CALHOUN COUNTY

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Marshall23
2Battle Creek Harper Creek37
3Lake Odessa Lakewood80
4Colon110

PlaceGradeNameTeam
112Jack BidwellMarshall
212Dominic LowrieBattle Creek Harper Creek
310Abraham McHughMarshall
412Reece DavisMarshall
511Cooper GardnerBattle Creek Harper Creek
610Christian AyresBattle Creek Harper Creek
711Clark ErwinMarshall
811Ty WinchellMarshall
911Cameron WeersMarshall
1012Riley JohnsonLake Odessa Lakewood
1112Jordan LindauerBattle Creek Harper Creek
1211Chase WeersMarshall
1310Max BarronTekonsha
1410Bryce GoodemootLake Odessa Lakewood
1512Owen HunterBattle Creek Harper Creek

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Marshall33
2Battle Creek Harper Creek37
3Battle Creek Pennfield74
4Lake Odessa Lakewood96

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Julia FaberBattle Creek Harper Creek
211Leah McPartlinMarshall
39Rylee ZumerBattle Creek Harper Creek
49Alaina DillonMarshall
511Peyton RhoadesBattle Creek Pennfield
612Savannah RichmondMarshall
710Layla SilkworthBattle Creek Harper Creek
89Raelin SchrockLake Odessa Lakewood
911Adriana DomingoMarshall
109Ellie BowenBattle Creek Pennfield
1111Maura YoungMarshall
1211Alaina HoffmanMarshall
1311Ellie FeneleyBattle Creek Harper Creek
1411Everlyn VanValkenburgBattle Creek Harper Creek
1510Elizabeth AntesBattle Creek Harper Creek

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