Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.
Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
| Tanner Time | Tanner Rating | Tanner Avg. | Tanner StDev. |
| 15:30 | 210 | ||
| 15:45 | 205 | ||
| 16:00 | 200 | ||
| 16:15 | 195 | ||
| 16:30 | 190 | 200 | 7.91 |
| MIXCSR Time | MIXCSR Rating | MIXCSR Avg. | MIXCSR StDev. |
| 16:09 | 197 | ||
| 16:12 | 196 | ||
| 16:15 | 195 | ||
| 16:18 | 194 | ||
| 16:21 | 193 | 195 | 1.58 |
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
| Race | Tanner Avg. | Tanner StDev | Tanner Rating | MIXCSR Avg. | MIXCSR StDev | MIXCSR Rating |
| 1 | 200 | 7.9 | 202.1 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.6 |
| 2 | 200 | 7.9 | 196.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.1 |
| 3 | 200 | 7.9 | 190.0 | 195 | 1.6 | 199.2 |
| 4 | 200 | 7.9 | 193.4 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.5 |
| 5 | 200 | 7.9 | 206.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.7 |
| 6 | 200 | 7.9 | 201.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.1 |
| 7 | 200 | 7.9 | 171.6 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.9 |
| 8 | 200 | 7.9 | 189.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.9 |
| 9 | 200 | 7.9 | 205.5 | 195 | 1.6 | 197.0 |
| 10 | 200 | 7.9 | 203.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.6 |
| 11 | 200 | 7.9 | 192.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.5 |
| 12 | 200 | 7.9 | 196.9 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.4 |
| 13 | 200 | 7.9 | 198.5 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.6 |
| 14 | 200 | 7.9 | 203.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.1 |
| 15 | 200 | 7.9 | 193.9 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.6 |
| 16 | 200 | 7.9 | 199.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 193.2 |
| 17 | 200 | 7.9 | 208.7 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.2 |
| 18 | 200 | 7.9 | 213.7 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.6 |
| 19 | 200 | 7.9 | 212.6 | 195 | 1.6 | 197.1 |
| 20 | 200 | 7.9 | 206.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 193.9 |
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.
Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!
Region 28
What’s the Battle?
Can Cody Bradley hold off all challengers? The Guardian senior was 2nd here last year, then 21st at MIS. When needed, he’s raced into the mid-16’s. An Austin Sneed looks to be the main challenger, as he just recently popped a 16:35 to win the Ski Valley.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Harbor Springs | 35 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 6 |
| 2 | Petoskey St. Michael | 60 | 2.1 | 95+ | 15 | |
| 3 | Ellsworth | 86 | 3.0 | 95+ | 30 | |
| 4 | Mancelona | 116 | 4.4 | 39 | ||
| 5 | Fairview | 118 | 4.7 | 40 | ||
| 6 | Mackinaw City | 141 | 5.9 | 59 | ||
| 7 | Hale | 162 | 7.0 | 71 | ||
| 8 | Wolverine | 209 | 8.0 | 82 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Cody Bradley | Petoskey St. Michael | 1.4 |
| 2 | 12 | Austin Sneed | East Jordan | 3.0 |
| 3 | 12 | Jeremiah Witt | Johannesburg-Lewiston | 4.2 |
| 4 | 9 | Grant Corlew | Harbor Springs | 4.9 |
| 5 | 11 | Khadar Jama | Ellsworth | 5.2 |
| 6 | 12 | Teddy Krieger | Harbor Springs | 5.8 |
| 7 | 12 | Russell Vandermus | Petoskey St. Michael | 7.2 |
| 8 | 11 | Cole Brege | Rogers City | 7.9 |
| 9 | 11 | Henry Kruzel | Harbor Springs | 10.1 |
| 10 | 9 | Atticus Cadarette | Petoskey St. Michael | 11.8 |
| 11 | 11 | Jack Sharar | Rogers City | 12.7 |
| 12 | 11 | Cole Upper | Lincoln-Alcona | 15.4 |
| 13 | 11 | Nicholas Trader | Fairview | 15.9 |
| 14 | 11 | Max Vroman | Harbor Springs | 16.0 |
| 15 | 11 | Cole Abney | Ellsworth | 16.1 |
| 16 | 11 | Paxton Downing | Hale | 17.0 |
| 17 | 9 | Zander Chellis | Ellsworth | 17.5 |
| 18 | 11 | Adam Ferguson | Harbor Springs | 17.6 |
| 19 | 11 | Sean Bernard | Hale | 18.7 |
| 20 | 10 | Carter Toensfeldt | Fairview | 19.1 |
| 21 | 10 | Jayden Dunnebeck | East Jordan | 20.6 |
| 22 | 12 | Jacob Chamberlain | East Jordan | 21.0 |
| 23 | 11 | Braylon Currie | Mackinaw City | 23.0 |
| 24 | 9 | Elliot Smith | Mancelona | 24.2 |
| 25 | 12 | Tanner Major | Fairview | 25.7 |
| 26 | 9 | Jacob Vroman | Harbor Springs | 26.7 |
| 27 | 11 | Matt Waggoner | Mancelona | 27.3 |
| 28 | 9 | Cole Wesley | Petoskey St. Michael | 29.4 |
| 29 | 11 | Ben Strittmatter | Mackinaw City | 31.0 |
| 30 | 11 | Darren Boyat | Lincoln-Alcona | 32.2 |
Region 29
What’s the Battle?
Maple City Glen Lake and Mason County Eastern for the team title. The Lakers and Cardinals have gone head-to-head on three occasions this year – Pete Moss, Buckley, and Glen Lake. MCE took the first two, Glen Lake prevailed on their home course. But it’s been more than a month since then, plenty of time for individual improvement. Either way, both will likely represent the region well if they advance to the State Finals.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Mason County Eastern | 55 | 1.1 | 88 | 95+ | 4 |
| 2 | Maple City Glen Lake | 61 | 1.9 | 12 | 95+ | 5 |
| 3 | Leland | 98 | 3.1 | 92 | 11 | |
| 4 | Grand Traverse Academy | 123 | 4.5 | 20 | ||
| 5 | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 133 | 5.4 | 29 | ||
| 6 | Frankfort | 135 | 5.3 | 27 | ||
| 7 | Mesick | 147 | 6.7 | 35 | ||
| 8 | Forest Park | 199 | 8.0 | 53 | ||
| 9 | Pentwater | 237 | 9.2 | 68 | ||
| 10 | Traverse City Christian | 243 | 9.8 | 75 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 10 | Kyle Redman | Mesick | 1.7 |
| 2 | 12 | Colebrook Sutherland | Maple City Glen Lake | 2.4 |
| 3 | 12 | Mason Sinke | Bear Lake-Onekama | 3.2 |
| 4 | 12 | Alex Tyndall | Mason County Eastern | 3.6 |
| 5 | 10 | Ty Redman | Mesick | 4.6 |
| 6 | 10 | Abraham Feeney | Maple City Glen Lake | 5.8 |
| 7 | 11 | Liam McCaw | Maple City Glen Lake | 7.7 |
| 8 | 9 | Lance Niedzielski | Mason County Eastern | 8.1 |
| 9 | 10 | Milo Shoup | Mason County Eastern | 10.2 |
| 10 | 9 | Beckett Dennis | Grand Traverse Academy | 11.2 |
| 11 | 9 | Carter Suttmann | Leland | 12.3 |
| 12 | 9 | Owen Jarosz | Frankfort | 14.5 |
| 13 | 12 | Parker Rubin | Grand Traverse Academy | 14.7 |
| 14 | 9 | Kaiden Lague | Mason County Eastern | 14.9 |
| 15 | 11 | Cody Couturier | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 16.5 |
| 16 | 10 | Evan Keen | Leland | 17.5 |
| 17 | 11 | Matthew Bentley | Buckley | 18.7 |
| 18 | 12 | Greyson Hoeflinger | Bear Lake-Onekama | 18.8 |
| 19 | 11 | Oliver Mitchell | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 18.8 |
| 20 | 11 | Keith Crompton | Frankfort | 19.7 |
| 21 | 10 | Lincoln Bailey | Maple City Glen Lake | 19.8 |
| 22 | 12 | Elijah Bauer | Traverse City Christian | 21.2 |
| 23 | 9 | Christopher Knudsen | Leland | 24.8 |
| 24 | 9 | Campbell Fedderman | Leland | 25.3 |
| 25 | 10 | Daniel Chaney | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 27.2 |
| 26 | 10 | Cy Kosmowski | Mason County Eastern | 27.6 |
| 27 | 10 | Afton Shoup | Mason County Eastern | 27.9 |
| 28 | 12 | Henry Malburg | Mason County Eastern | 28.6 |
| 29 | 9 | Tamrak McEachern | Buckley | 28.8 |
| 30 | 11 | Garrick Collins | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 29.2 |
Region 30
What’s the Battle?
Can Wesley Chaffee take it over his MSAC brothers? Chaffee was the victor in the latest two league jamborees. The sophomore has improved mightily from his freshman form, consistently hitting the 16’s for the past month. Carter Clark took the first league gathering and was only 8 sec. back in last week’s final. He’s flatlined a bit here in the finishing stretch, though I’ve never learned to never count Breckenridge kids out, so don’t be shocked if Anthony Rowe is in the mix as well.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 38 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 12 |
| 2 | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 69 | 2.1 | 95+ | 34 | |
| 3 | Beal City | 86 | 3.0 | 95+ | 43 | |
| 4 | Breckenridge | 118 | 4.6 | 55 | ||
| 5 | Saginaw Arts & Science | 118 | 4.7 | 60 | ||
| 6 | Saginaw Nouvel | 153 | 6.1 | 66 | ||
| 7 | Montabella | 166 | 6.7 | 74 | ||
| 8 | St. Charles | 191 | 8.0 | 78 | ||
| 9 | Big Rapids Crossroads Academy | 212 | 9.1 | 79 | ||
| 10 | Vestaburg | 225 | 9.8 | 81 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 10 | Wesley Chaffee | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 1.5 |
| 2 | 10 | Anthony Rowe | Breckenridge | 2.5 |
| 3 | 11 | Carter Clark | Carson City-Crystal | 2.5 |
| 4 | 11 | Jonah Pollatz | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 4.7 |
| 5 | 10 | Rush Marsden | Fulton | 5.2 |
| 6 | 12 | Camden Fager | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 6.3 |
| 7 | 10 | Amos Norder | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 6.9 |
| 8 | 12 | Logan Dudley | Coleman | 8.6 |
| 9 | 12 | Sean O’Grady | Saginaw Nouvel | 10.8 |
| 10 | 10 | Noah Dubridge | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 11.2 |
| 11 | 12 | Rodney Iamurri | Saginaw Nouvel | 11.5 |
| 12 | 12 | Cole Tilmann | Beal City | 11.7 |
| 13 | 11 | Amos Miller | Saginaw Arts & Science | 12.5 |
| 14 | 10 | Trevor Dolloff | Ashley | 14.3 |
| 15 | 10 | Brady Edwards | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 15.0 |
| 16 | 9 | Jonathan Egan | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 18.0 |
| 17 | 9 | Logan Funnell | Beal City | 18.2 |
| 18 | 10 | Zayden Buskirk | Carson City-Crystal | 18.4 |
| 19 | 10 | Logan Whitmer | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 20.7 |
| 20 | 10 | Jared Samyn | St. Charles | 21.6 |
| 21 | 10 | Dominick Chiverton | Breckenridge | 22.0 |
| 22 | 11 | Conner Fenton | Beal City | 22.9 |
| 23 | 11 | Jordan Weber | Beal City | 26.0 |
| 24 | 12 | Aimon Humm | Breckenridge | 26.0 |
| 25 | 10 | Payton Crawfis | Carson City-Crystal | 26.4 |
| 26 | 11 | Jakob Mueller | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 27.2 |
| 27 | 10 | Brennan Dunn | Saginaw Arts & Science | 27.6 |
| 28 | 11 | Jacob Vanderveen | Fulton | 28.5 |
| 29 | 10 | Paul Kim | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 29.1 |
| 30 | 11 | Jareth Shappee | Montabella | 30.6 |
Region 31
What’s the Battle?
Appears to be a dead heat between Tyler Laansma and Coleson Cruzan. You have to go back to last fall’s State Finals to find a matchup between the two, and even then, there’s not much discernment, with Cruzan finishing three spots and three seconds ahead of Laansma. Here in 2024, each have found their way into the mid-16’s, Laansma grabbing a 16:26 at Allegan and Cruzan, a 16:31 at Shepherd.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Holland Calvary Christian | 35 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 2 |
| 2 | White Cloud | 67 | 2.0 | 95+ | 9 | |
| 3 | Tri-Unity Christian | 104 | 3.2 | 85 | 21 | |
| 4 | Portland St. Patrick | 114 | 3.9 | 15 | 24 | |
| 5 | Fowler | 155 | 5.2 | 37 | ||
| 6 | St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic | 168 | 6.6 | 45 | ||
| 7 | Byron Center Zion Christian | 178 | 7.3 | 50 | ||
| 8 | Gobles | 179 | 7.4 | 54 | ||
| 9 | Martin | 190 | 8.4 | 56 | ||
| 10 | Vermontville Maple Valley | 243 | 10.3 | 72 | ||
| 11 | Holton | 253 | 10.7 | 76 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Tyler Laansma | Tri-Unity Christian | 1.5 |
| 2 | 12 | Coleson Cruzan | White Cloud | 1.5 |
| 3 | 10 | Noah Schipper | Holland Calvary Christian | 3.7 |
| 4 | 10 | Christian Getz | Holland Calvary Christian | 5.3 |
| 5 | 9 | Lincoln Laansma | Tri-Unity Christian | 5.5 |
| 6 | 12 | Kaleb Canning | White Cloud | 5.6 |
| 7 | 11 | Timothy Chamberlain | Portland St. Patrick | 6.7 |
| 8 | 10 | Riley Weed | Holland Calvary Christian | 9.2 |
| 9 | 10 | Caleb Adkins | Holland Calvary Christian | 9.4 |
| 10 | 10 | Brody VanTuinen | Holland Calvary Christian | 9.5 |
| 11 | 10 | Gibson White | Holland Calvary Christian | 9.7 |
| 12 | 11 | Quentin Smith | Fowler | 11.7 |
| 13 | 10 | Francis Austen | Portland St. Patrick | 13.5 |
| 14 | 11 | Freddie BIERLING | Byron Center Zion Christian | 16.4 |
| 15 | 12 | Alex Morin | Martin | 17.3 |
| 16 | 10 | Elijah Laninga | Holland Calvary Christian | 17.4 |
| 17 | 12 | Wyatt Karnes | White Cloud | 17.4 |
| 18 | 11 | Isaac FoxElster | Portland St. Patrick | 18.9 |
| 19 | 11 | Lukas Rennells | Muskegon Catholic Central | 18.9 |
| 20 | 8 | Eli Schout | Libertas Christian | 22.0 |
| 21 | 12 | Kalen Loebach | St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic | 22.1 |
| 22 | 10 | Angelo Hinson | White Cloud | 22.2 |
| 23 | 11 | David Sager | Gobles | 22.3 |
| 24 | 10 | Landon Miller | Fowler | 22.6 |
| 25 | 9 | Joseph Coon | White Cloud | 23.4 |
| 26 | 8 | Levi Oudbier | Tri-Unity Christian | 24.8 |
| 27 | 9 | Jack Feenstra | Byron Center Zion Christian | 27.4 |
| 28 | 12 | Luke Baird | Tri-Unity Christian | 28.1 |
| 29 | 9 | Eli Metcalf | Libertas Christian | 30.0 |
| 30 | 9 | Cole Ringel | Gobles | 31.2 |
Region 32
What’s the Battle?
Very strong teams and very strong individuals lessen the drama, so I guess we ask, where is the qualifying cut off? It’s appearing as if it’ll hover around the 16th spot, so the emphasis has to be getting into the top-15.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Kalamazoo Hackett | 45 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 7 |
| 2 | Bridgman | 57 | 2.0 | 95+ | 10 | |
| 3 | Three Oaks River Valley | 79 | 3.0 | 95+ | 23 | |
| 4 | White Pigeon | 123 | 4.4 | 38 | ||
| 5 | New Buffalo | 128 | 4.6 | 41 | ||
| 6 | Athens | 156 | 6.0 | 58 | ||
| 7 | Eau Claire | 174 | 7.1 | 63 | ||
| 8 | Colon | 194 | 8.1 | 69 | ||
| 9 | Heritage Christian Academy | 208 | 8.8 | 77 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Marek Butkiewicz | Kalamazoo Hackett | 1.0 |
| 2 | 11 | Landon Rogers | Three Oaks River Valley | 2.3 |
| 3 | 11 | Sean Siems | Kalamazoo Hackett | 3.1 |
| 4 | 12 | Andrew Mabry | Bridgman | 3.9 |
| 5 | 12 | Teddy Ippel | Bridgman | 4.7 |
| 6 | 12 | Ben Iobe | Mendon | 6.6 |
| 7 | 11 | Jesse Fielis | White Pigeon | 6.7 |
| 8 | 9 | Joseph Edwards | New Buffalo | 9.0 |
| 9 | 12 | Ryan Blankenship | Eau Claire | 9.5 |
| 10 | 12 | Alexander Dumont | Kalamazoo Hackett | 10.6 |
| 11 | 10 | Kellen Siems | Kalamazoo Hackett | 12.0 |
| 12 | 11 | Ethan O’Connor | Athens | 12.1 |
| 13 | 11 | Charlie Gibson | Three Oaks River Valley | 13.6 |
| 14 | 10 | Max Barron | Tekonsha | 14.3 |
| 15 | 12 | Ethan Devries | Bridgman | 15.6 |
| 16 | 10 | Elias Baldwin | Decatur | 18.0 |
| 17 | 10 | August Johnson | New Buffalo | 18.7 |
| 18 | 10 | Kyron Christner | Mendon | 18.9 |
| 19 | 11 | Beck Ytterberg | Bridgman | 20.8 |
| 20 | 10 | Jay Bronsink | Athens | 21.2 |
| 21 | 12 | Jerome Bastian | Battle Creek St. Philip | 23.0 |
| 22 | 12 | Sean Driscoll | Three Oaks River Valley | 23.2 |
| 23 | 12 | Jack Williams | White Pigeon | 23.9 |
| 24 | 12 | Carter Ernsberger | Bridgman | 24.8 |
| 25 | 11 | Clark Douglas | Bridgman | 25.4 |
| 26 | 10 | Colin Gallagher | Kalamazoo Hackett | 26.1 |
| 27 | 12 | Owen Nofs | Battle Creek St. Philip | 26.2 |
| 28 | 10 | Aiden Jackson | White Pigeon | 26.8 |
| 29 | 9 | Nathaneal Karakula | Heritage Christian Academy | 28.9 |
| 30 | 11 | Parker Volstorf | Three Oaks River Valley | 30.0 |
Region 33
What’s the Battle?
Can Whitmore Lake strike the four-peat? Thanks to an influx of ready freshmen, the Trojans find themselves as the heavy favorite.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Whitmore Lake | 43 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 8 |
| 2 | Dansville | 69 | 2.0 | 95+ | 13 | |
| 3 | Webberville | 93 | 3.0 | 95+ | 28 | |
| 4 | Novi Christian Academy | 142 | 4.9 | 46 | ||
| 5 | Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes | 144 | 5.4 | 44 | ||
| 6 | Lansing Christian | 151 | 6.0 | 51 | ||
| 7 | Livingston Christian | 152 | 6.2 | 49 | ||
| 8 | Byron | 174 | 7.5 | 64 | ||
| 9 | Genesee Christian Academy | 201 | 9.0 | 67 | ||
| 10 | Morrice | 258 | 10.0 | 80 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Theodore Davis | Dansville | 1.0 |
| 2 | 11 | Landen Livingston | Whitmore Lake | 2.0 |
| 3 | 9 | Nolan Collins | Whitmore Lake | 4.7 |
| 4 | 11 | Josiah Johncox | Byron | 4.7 |
| 5 | 11 | Reuben Jiran | Novi Christian Academy | 5.2 |
| 6 | 11 | Ethan West | Webberville | 6.8 |
| 7 | 11 | Gavin Howery | Webberville | 8.4 |
| 8 | 12 | Aaron Crittenden | Potterville | 8.9 |
| 9 | 9 | Nathan West | Webberville | 9.5 |
| 10 | 10 | Ayden Mayr | Dansville | 10.0 |
| 11 | 9 | Anderson Karkau | Dansville | 10.4 |
| 12 | 9 | Leo Weaver | Whitmore Lake | 11.4 |
| 13 | 11 | Dan Birmingham | Whitmore Lake | 14.9 |
| 14 | 12 | Karl Wegner | Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes | 15.2 |
| 15 | 12 | Nate Dillon | Whitmore Lake | 15.8 |
| 16 | 11 | Matias Greve | Lansing Christian | 16.0 |
| 17 | 11 | Nathan Camilleri | Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes | 17.2 |
| 18 | 10 | Benjamin Fox | Whitmore Lake | 18.2 |
| 19 | 10 | Eric Junker | Whitmore Lake | 18.6 |
| 20 | 12 | Samuel Hubbard | Livingston Christian | 18.8 |
| 21 | 11 | Ian Ferguson | Genesee Christian Academy | 19.8 |
| 22 | 9 | Jackson Onofre | Novi Christian Academy | 21.5 |
| 23 | 9 | Randolf Schneider | Dansville | 21.9 |
| 24 | 10 | Noah Torosian | Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes | 23.6 |
| 25 | 9 | Nolan Stadel | Genesee Christian Academy | 24.6 |
| 26 | 9 | Caleb Call | Lansing Christian | 27.6 |
| 27 | 9 | Trey Johnson | Livingston Christian | 27.8 |
| 28 | 12 | Ethan Root | Dansville | 29.7 |
| 29 | 10 | Luke Meyer | Lansing Christian | 29.8 |
| 30 | 11 | Matthew Howery | Webberville | 30.6 |
Region 34
What’s the Battle?
Gradually moving up year by year, will Grayson Rorick win his first regional? 8th as an 8th grader, 5th being a freshman, 3rd in 2023, now the favorite. In terms of place both here and at State, in terms of time including this fall, Rorick keeps it ticking. Recently, he set a lifetime best and won his first SCAA Championship. Everything is pointing towards the continued honors.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Hillsdale Academy | 18 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 1 |
| 2 | Manchester | 71 | 2.0 | 95+ | 17 | |
| 3 | Concord | 91 | 3.0 | 95+ | 32 | |
| 4 | Jackson Preparatory | 122 | 4.7 | 48 | ||
| 5 | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 124 | 4.8 | 47 | ||
| 6 | Morenci | 132 | 5.5 | 57 | ||
| 7 | Britton Deerfield | 164 | 7.0 | 73 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Grayson Rorick | Hillsdale Academy | 1.3 |
| 2 | 12 | Reece Poole | Hillsdale Academy | 2.4 |
| 3 | 11 | Grant Johnson | Manchester | 3.7 |
| 4 | 11 | Luke Molenkamp | Hillsdale Academy | 5.0 |
| 5 | 10 | Timothy Gaebler | Hillsdale Academy | 5.5 |
| 6 | 11 | Henry Lindley | Hillsdale Academy | 6.3 |
| 7 | 11 | James Rahe | Hillsdale Academy | 6.5 |
| 8 | 12 | Joel Lange | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 7.3 |
| 9 | 12 | Seth Plummer | Hillsdale Academy | 8.0 |
| 10 | 12 | Beau Shaffer | Morenci | 10.7 |
| 11 | 12 | Jesse Sangster | Manchester | 13.4 |
| 12 | 11 | Paul Herendeen | Concord | 13.7 |
| 13 | 12 | Jameson Watson | Britton Deerfield | 14.2 |
| 14 | 10 | Alec Dodak | Manchester | 15.0 |
| 15 | 12 | Diego BoCole | Jackson Preparatory | 15.6 |
| 16 | 11 | Maddox Hutchinson | Concord | 16.2 |
| 17 | 11 | Dallas Swaenepoel | Vandercook Lake | 16.4 |
| 18 | 12 | Dustin Hamilton | Concord | 19.2 |
| 19 | 10 | Keaton Smith | Concord | 20.0 |
| 20 | 10 | Harper Doyle | Manchester | 21.1 |
| 21 | 10 | Michael Navitskis | Manchester | 22.4 |
| 22 | 11 | Corey Dubnicki | Jackson Preparatory | 22.4 |
| 23 | 12 | Kaleb Richardson | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 25.7 |
| 24 | 12 | Logan Mishaw | Jackson Preparatory | 26.3 |
| 25 | 12 | Darran Drake | Camden-Frontier | 27.8 |
| 26 | 12 | Wyatt Berger | Morenci | 28.6 |
| 27 | 10 | Noah Lucas | Addison | 28.8 |
| 28 | 10 | Colin Brown | Petersburg-Summerfield | 29.7 |
| 29 | 10 | Dylan McCallister | Reading | 30.3 |
| 30 | 9 | Tony Gudakunst | Addison | 30.7 |
Region 35
What’s the Battle?
Gotta love a good battle for a qualifying spot. This one seems to include Unionville-Sebewaing and Marlette. Close in proximity and with Thumb teams often competing close to home, these two squads have toed the line on four separate occasions. Early on, the Red Raider pack overwhelmed the Patriots. Recently, USA has been splitting Marlette’s 3rd & 4th runners, which has closed the gap in terms of points.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Dryden | 55 | 1.1 | 94 | 95+ | 14 |
| 2 | Harbor Beach | 68 | 2.1 | 6 | 95+ | 16 |
| 3 | Unionville-Sebewaing | 78 | 3.2 | 64 | 22 | |
| 4 | Marlette | 83 | 3.6 | 37 | 25 | |
| 5 | Mayville | 139 | 5.0 | 52 | ||
| 6 | Deckerville | 163 | 6.5 | 62 | ||
| 7 | Kingston | 163 | 6.6 | 65 | ||
| 8 | Brown City | 184 | 7.9 | 70 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Brody Karg | Harbor Beach | 1.1 |
| 2 | 11 | Carson Burgess | Brown City | 2.6 |
| 3 | 12 | Zack Becker | Unionville-Sebewaing | 3.2 |
| 4 | 12 | Matthew Pasiak | Harbor Beach | 4.3 |
| 5 | 11 | Logan Romain | Dryden | 5.6 |
| 6 | 9 | Levi Fitchett | Dryden | 6.2 |
| 7 | 11 | Michael Walsh | Ubly | 7.5 |
| 8 | 12 | Turlough Bennett | Marlette | 9.1 |
| 9 | 6 | Nino Perna | Marlette | 9.5 |
| 10 | 10 | Brennan Robinson | Kingston | 10.0 |
| 11 | 10 | Owen Wruble | Harbor Beach | 10.6 |
| 12 | 12 | Isaac Bignall | Unionville-Sebewaing | 13.0 |
| 13 | 12 | Joel Enos | Mayville | 13.4 |
| 14 | 12 | Noah Hall | Dryden | 15.8 |
| 15 | 10 | Thijs Van Rijn | Kingston | 16.7 |
| 16 | 11 | Nick Abromaitis | Dryden | 17.2 |
| 17 | 11 | Evan Gobie | Deckerville | 18.2 |
| 18 | 12 | Sean Finnigan | Dryden | 18.4 |
| 19 | – | Caden Meyer | Marlette | 20.7 |
| 20 | 9 | Brendan Aeder | Unionville-Sebewaing | 20.8 |
| 21 | 11 | Jacob Campbell | New Life Christian Academy | 21.5 |
| 22 | 9 | Lukas Brown | Unionville-Sebewaing | 24.1 |
| 23 | – | Anthony Rosario | Marlette | 24.3 |
| 24 | 12 | Mark Bulgrien | Harbor Beach | 26.0 |
| 25 | 9 | Zachary Crumby | Unionville-Sebewaing | 26.3 |
| 26 | 9 | Jaycen Roberts | Dryden | 26.8 |
| 27 | 11 | Dylan Lasher | Dryden | 27.3 |
| 28 | 12 | Nate Carey | Mayville | 28.2 |
| 29 | 11 | Luke Thomas | Marlette | 28.4 |
| 30 | 9 | Maksim Kohl | Unionville-Sebewaing | 28.9 |
Region 36
What’s the Battle?
Coming off a runner-up finish in the PSL, can Frederick Douglass ride the momentum to a state berth? The Ibis have two low sticks, Jeremiah Thurman and Joel Johnson, each showing the ability to race into the 17’s. If they’re able to find more improvement from the young folks behind those two, an upset could brew at Royal Oak.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Royal Oak Shrine | 45 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 3 |
| 2 | Lutheran Westland | 105 | 2.4 | 95+ | 18 | |
| 3 | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 107 | 2.8 | 88 | 19 | |
| 4 | Cardinal Mooney Catholic | 124 | 4.7 | 26 | ||
| 5 | Riverview Gabriel Richard | 126 | 4.9 | 7 | 33 | |
| 6 | Detroit Frederick Douglass | 132 | 5.5 | 7 | 31 | |
| 7 | Plymouth Christian Academy | 143 | 6.8 | 36 | ||
| 8 | Allen Park Cabrini | 161 | 8.0 | 42 | ||
| 9 | Austin Catholic | 184 | 9.0 | 61 | ||
| 10 | Detroit Davis Aerospace | 288 | 10.1 | 83 | ||
| 11 | Detroit Crockett | 324 | 10.9 | 84 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Abenezer Cerone | Royal Oak Shrine | 1.0 |
| 2 | 10 | Jacob Ferdubinski | Riverview Gabriel Richard | 2.3 |
| 3 | 11 | Emmanuel Mehari | Plymouth Christian Academy | 3.5 |
| 4 | 10 | Vern Clyne | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 5.1 |
| 5 | 11 | Michael Bowker | Royal Oak Shrine | 6.6 |
| 6 | 11 | Max Brannan | Lutheran Westland | 7.4 |
| 7 | 11 | Rich Fanti | Riverview Gabriel Richard | 8.4 |
| 8 | 9 | Simon Reed | Plymouth Christian Academy | 8.7 |
| 9 | 11 | Andrew Lopez | Royal Oak Shrine | 9.3 |
| 10 | 11 | Joel Johnson | Detroit Frederick Douglass | 10.6 |
| 11 | 12 | Nico DiPonio | Austin Catholic | 11.4 |
| 12 | 11 | Carter Russelburg | Allen Park Cabrini | 14.2 |
| 13 | 11 | Caesar Soma | Royal Oak Shrine | 14.4 |
| 14 | 12 | Evan Jacobs | Cardinal Mooney Catholic | 14.7 |
| 15 | 12 | Tom Shafer | Lutheran Westland | 14.7 |
| 16 | 12 | Joseph Kemp | Royal Oak Shrine | 15.5 |
| 17 | 11 | jeremiah Thurman | Detroit Frederick Douglass | 16.0 |
| 18 | 11 | Dominic Barretto | Riverview Gabriel Richard | 20.7 |
| 19 | 12 | Andrew Gerrits | Birmingham Roeper | 21.2 |
| 20 | 10 | Finn Kneer | New Haven Merritt Academy | 21.3 |
| 21 | 9 | Liam Knuth | Cardinal Mooney Catholic | 21.4 |
| 22 | 12 | Charlie Radziszewski | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 22.1 |
| 23 | 9 | Will Bernacki | Royal Oak Shrine | 23.7 |
| 24 | 10 | Aaron Lenn | Cardinal Mooney Catholic | 25.0 |
| 25 | 10 | Uzziel Thomassen | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 25.5 |
| 26 | 11 | Andrew Rosso | Austin Catholic | 26.2 |
| 27 | 9 | Barron Denham | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 26.3 |
| 28 | 10 | Ian Scott | Lutheran Westland | 26.8 |
| 29 | 11 | Seth Witte | Lutheran Westland | 28.0 |
| 30 | 12 | Brock Morris | Southfield Christian | 28.1 |
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 