Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.
Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
| Tanner Time | Tanner Rating | Tanner Avg. | Tanner StDev. |
| 15:30 | 210 | ||
| 15:45 | 205 | ||
| 16:00 | 200 | ||
| 16:15 | 195 | ||
| 16:30 | 190 | 200 | 7.91 |
| MIXCSR Time | MIXCSR Rating | MIXCSR Avg. | MIXCSR StDev. |
| 16:09 | 197 | ||
| 16:12 | 196 | ||
| 16:15 | 195 | ||
| 16:18 | 194 | ||
| 16:21 | 193 | 195 | 1.58 |
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
| Race | Tanner Avg. | Tanner StDev | Tanner Rating | MIXCSR Avg. | MIXCSR StDev | MIXCSR Rating |
| 1 | 200 | 7.9 | 202.1 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.6 |
| 2 | 200 | 7.9 | 196.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.1 |
| 3 | 200 | 7.9 | 190.0 | 195 | 1.6 | 199.2 |
| 4 | 200 | 7.9 | 193.4 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.5 |
| 5 | 200 | 7.9 | 206.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.7 |
| 6 | 200 | 7.9 | 201.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.1 |
| 7 | 200 | 7.9 | 171.6 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.9 |
| 8 | 200 | 7.9 | 189.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.9 |
| 9 | 200 | 7.9 | 205.5 | 195 | 1.6 | 197.0 |
| 10 | 200 | 7.9 | 203.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.6 |
| 11 | 200 | 7.9 | 192.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.5 |
| 12 | 200 | 7.9 | 196.9 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.4 |
| 13 | 200 | 7.9 | 198.5 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.6 |
| 14 | 200 | 7.9 | 203.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.1 |
| 15 | 200 | 7.9 | 193.9 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.6 |
| 16 | 200 | 7.9 | 199.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 193.2 |
| 17 | 200 | 7.9 | 208.7 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.2 |
| 18 | 200 | 7.9 | 213.7 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.6 |
| 19 | 200 | 7.9 | 212.6 | 195 | 1.6 | 197.1 |
| 20 | 200 | 7.9 | 206.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 193.9 |
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.
Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!
Region 28
What’s the Battle?
The quick East Jordan course vs. the depths of girls looking to run under 20:00. Earlier in the year at Party in the Park, Allie Nowak, Jane Manthei, and Stefi Reskevics were all able to slip under the mark. Don’t be too surprised if a few more follow.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Harbor Springs | 27 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 4 |
| 2 | Rogers City | 74 | 2.1 | 95+ | 25 | |
| 3 | Petoskey St. Michael | 83 | 3.0 | 95+ | 29 | |
| 4 | Ellsworth | 109 | 4.1 | 6 | 36 | |
| 5 | East Jordan | 121 | 4.8 | 39 | ||
| 6 | Gaylord St. Mary | 144 | 6.0 | 45 | ||
| 7 | Indian River Inland Lakes | 159 | 7.0 | 53 | ||
| 8 | Mancelona | 176 | 7.9 | 59 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Allie Nowak | Johannesburg-Lewiston | 1.3 |
| 2 | 12 | Jane Manthei | Petoskey St. Michael | 2.0 |
| 3 | 10 | Stefi Reskevics | Harbor Springs | 3.2 |
| 4 | 10 | Harlie Fox | Johannesburg-Lewiston | 4.4 |
| 5 | 12 | Juniper Rodham | Harbor Springs | 5.3 |
| 6 | 10 | Avery Langlois | Rogers City | 7.0 |
| 7 | 10 | Danielle Agren | Johannesburg-Lewiston | 8.6 |
| 8 | 10 | Genevieve Rodham | Harbor Springs | 9.5 |
| 9 | 11 | Fran Warren | Harbor Springs | 10.1 |
| 10 | 10 | Veronica Paga | Petoskey St. Michael | 10.8 |
| 11 | 10 | Ruby Pletcher | Ellsworth | 11.0 |
| 12 | 12 | Tara Shouldice | Harbor Springs | 12.1 |
| 13 | 9 | Fenlynn Johnson | Rogers City | 13.4 |
| 14 | 12 | McKenzie Bowman | Harbor Springs | 13.8 |
| 15 | 9 | Sophia Balistreri | Harbor Springs | 15.2 |
| 16 | 10 | Elizabeth Furman | Indian River Inland Lakes | 15.7 |
| 17 | 12 | Elke Knauf | East Jordan | 16.4 |
| 18 | 11 | Taylor Hefele | Rogers City | 18.8 |
| 19 | 10 | Avary Bearden | East Jordan | 20.5 |
| 20 | 11 | Ella Nolan | Petoskey St. Michael | 22.4 |
| 21 | 10 | Isabella Hocking | Bellaire | 24.1 |
| 22 | 12 | Bailey Ray | Mancelona | 25.0 |
| 23 | 9 | Keri Coolman | Rogers City | 25.1 |
| 24 | 11 | Sophia Harding | Gaylord St. Mary | 25.6 |
| 25 | 10 | Natalie Fitzgerald | Ellsworth | 25.6 |
| 26 | 9 | Mea Wesley | Petoskey St. Michael | 26.9 |
| 27 | 11 | Shelby Wisnowski | Charlton Heston Academy | 27.8 |
| 28 | 10 | Morgan Reh | Bellaire | 28.1 |
| 29 | 10 | Ella Sponable | Ellsworth | 28.6 |
| 30 | 12 | Claudia DeLeo | Gaylord St. Mary | 28.6 |
Region 29
What’s the Battle?
Although the odds are high for the top-3 ranked teams to graduate to MIS, can any of the other teams slip in there? They’re close in points and in the rankings too, and a team such as Maple City Glen Lake has knocked off those ahead of them.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Bear Lake-Onekama | 55 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 9 |
| 2 | Grand Traverse Academy | 74 | 2.5 | 95+ | 15 | |
| 3 | Buckley | 74 | 2.5 | 95+ | 16 | |
| 4 | Maple City Glen Lake | 90 | 4.0 | 20 | ||
| 5 | Leland | 98 | 5.1 | 28 | ||
| 6 | Mason County Eastern | 106 | 5.9 | 24 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 9 | Callie Sinke | Bear Lake-Onekama | 1.0 |
| 2 | 12 | Ella Knudsen | Leland | 2.3 |
| 3 | 10 | Addy Zeller | Bear Lake-Onekama | 3.6 |
| 4 | 10 | Amelia McKinney | Grand Traverse Academy | 4.3 |
| 5 | 9 | Carmella Julian | Maple City Glen Lake | 4.8 |
| 6 | 9 | Sophie Grinage | Leland | 7.7 |
| 7 | 9 | Melodie Hulinek | Bear Lake-Onekama | 8.2 |
| 8 | 11 | Addison Jarosz | Frankfort | 8.2 |
| 9 | 11 | Leire Mahiques | Buckley | 9.0 |
| 10 | 12 | Lucy Shoup | Mason County Eastern | 9.8 |
| 11 | 10 | Addison Patrzik | Grand Traverse Academy | 10.6 |
| 12 | 10 | Natalie Burpee | Leland | 12.0 |
| 13 | 12 | Emily Alaimo | Maple City Glen Lake | 13.5 |
| 14 | 11 | Kinsey Peer | Buckley | 14.5 |
| 15 | 9 | Claire Couturier | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 15.5 |
| 16 | 10 | Mikayla Kulawiak | Buckley | 15.6 |
| 17 | 10 | Madison Smith | Grand Traverse Academy | 16.7 |
| 18 | 11 | Natalie Brown | Bear Lake-Onekama | 18.2 |
| 19 | 10 | Bailey Case | Pentwater | 18.5 |
| 20 | 9 | Alayna Ottenbacher | Maple City Glen Lake | 22.5 |
| 21 | 10 | Brailyn Johnson | Mason County Eastern | 22.7 |
| 22 | 10 | Addison Malburg | Mason County Eastern | 23.4 |
| 23 | 11 | Addisen Harrand | Buckley | 23.5 |
| 24 | 11 | Alyssa Spicer | Mesick | 24.5 |
| 25 | 9 | Lili Migazzi | Maple City Glen Lake | 26.5 |
| 26 | 11 | Willa Roth | Frankfort | 26.6 |
| 27 | 11 | Shenoah Collier | Grand Traverse Academy | 27.3 |
| 28 | 10 | Kaylee Swanson | Buckley | 28.0 |
| 29 | 10 | Stella York | Grand Traverse Academy | 30.2 |
| 30 | 9 | Aubrey Myers | Mason County Eastern | 30.2 |
Region 30
What’s the Battle?
Just four points and three spots in the ranking separating the projected 3rd and 4th squads. About a month ago at Bluejay, we were witness to a tiny preview of Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary and Beal City. The Aggies prevailed by three points, largely on the strength of Brianna Locke up front. In a smaller field, Beal City will lose a little of that advantage, though the same could be said for Michigan Lutheran Seminary’s depth.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Breckenridge | 26 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 5 |
| 2 | Vestaburg | 54 | 2.0 | 95+ | 17 | |
| 3 | Beal City | 85 | 3.4 | 66 | 27 | |
| 4 | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 89 | 3.7 | 33 | 30 | |
| 5 | St. Charles | 112 | 4.9 | 37 | ||
| 6 | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 164 | 6.2 | 47 | ||
| 7 | Montabella | 175 | 6.8 | 56 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Abigail Davis | Vestaburg | 1.0 |
| 2 | 12 | Danica Aldrich | Breckenridge | 2.4 |
| 3 | 11 | Ally Schmitz | Breckenridge | 2.7 |
| 4 | 12 | Brianna Locke | Beal City | 4.1 |
| 5 | 12 | Avery Westall | Breckenridge | 6.2 |
| 6 | 12 | Nataly Vine | Breckenridge | 7.2 |
| 7 | 9 | Maizy Matthews | Breckenridge | 7.5 |
| 8 | 12 | Jessica Penrod | Vestaburg | 9.5 |
| 9 | 11 | Olive Wakefield | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 9.7 |
| 10 | 12 | Mickiah Allbee | Vestaburg | 9.8 |
| 11 | 10 | Nolee Leppert | Beal City | 10.4 |
| 12 | 9 | Piper Schultz | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 12.9 |
| 13 | 9 | Skylar Maclennan | Fulton | 15.4 |
| 14 | 11 | Emma McCarty | Carson City-Crystal | 17.0 |
| 15 | 12 | Sydney Leslie | Saginaw Nouvel | 17.2 |
| 16 | 10 | Jessica Stouten | Vestaburg | 17.6 |
| 17 | 12 | Areyel Weiss | Breckenridge | 18.6 |
| 18 | 12 | Lilly Leppert | Beal City | 19.4 |
| 19 | 10 | Kaylie McCracken | Carson City-Crystal | 20.9 |
| 20 | 9 | Taylor Wills | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 21.5 |
| 21 | 9 | Dilyn Colpean | Merrill | 21.6 |
| 22 | 9 | Anna McCarty | Carson City-Crystal | 22.8 |
| 23 | 10 | Ryann Ball | Montabella | 23.6 |
| 24 | 12 | Alexis Graham | St. Charles | 24.4 |
| 25 | 10 | Cora Carver | Vestaburg | 24.6 |
| 26 | 9 | Peyton Rohn | Ashley | 25.9 |
| 27 | 10 | Greta Schroeder | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 26.2 |
| 28 | 12 | Landry Gomez | St. Charles | 27.5 |
| 29 | 9 | Nevaeh Parker | Big Rapids Crossroads Academy | 29.0 |
| 30 | 12 | Elizabeth Kolb | St. Charles | 29.9 |
Region 31
What’s the Battle?
Martin is a solid favorite to advance for one more week of racing, though Holland Calvary Christian will be a tough out. An advantage for Calvary Christian will be the fresh legs, at the most having raced on six occasions this fall. Martin is on the other side of the spectrum, consistently getting out there and coming off a 6th place finish in the always tough SAC.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Gobles | 35 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 8 |
| 2 | Fowler | 51 | 2.1 | 95+ | 14 | |
| 3 | Martin | 63 | 3.1 | 85 | 18 | |
| 4 | Holland Calvary Christian | 73 | 3.8 | 16 | 23 | |
| 5 | St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic | 133 | 5.1 | 55 | ||
| 6 | Holton | 143 | 5.9 | 57 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 10 | Libby Smith | Gobles | 1.1 |
| 2 | 10 | Veyda Conley | Martin | 2.7 |
| 3 | 10 | Lauren Shaffer | Gobles | 2.9 |
| 4 | 12 | Kelcie Pung | Fowler | 4.1 |
| 5 | 11 | Madison Cooley | Gobles | 6.3 |
| 6 | 9 | Zoe Fabing | Fowler | 7.1 |
| 7 | 12 | Brielle Voorhees | Tri-Unity Christian | 8.2 |
| 8 | 11 | Acacia Williams | Holland Calvary Christian | 9.0 |
| 9 | 10 | Marian Davlin | Portland St. Patrick | 11.3 |
| 10 | 12 | Madelyn Sillman | Fowler | 12.3 |
| 11 | JR | Alison Rotman | Holland Calvary Christian | 12.4 |
| 12 | 10 | Ava DeYoung | Gobles | 12.7 |
| 13 | 9 | Allison Rodgers | Martin | 13.4 |
| 14 | 9 | Laura Rotman | Holland Calvary Christian | 14.8 |
| 15 | 9 | Leah Thelen | Fowler | 14.9 |
| 16 | 12 | Zoie Wood | Gobles | 16.4 |
| 17 | 10 | Sara Schipper | Martin | 17.3 |
| 18 | 12 | Olivia Laninga | Holland Calvary Christian | 18.0 |
| 19 | 12 | Mary Riley | St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic | 18.2 |
| 20 | 11 | Olivia Thelen | Fowler | 18.8 |
| 21 | 12 | Emily King | Martin | 19.0 |
| 22 | 9 | DuRae Sage | Martin | 19.7 |
| 23 | 9 | Addison Tomsic | Gobles | 22.9 |
| 24 | 12 | Aubrey Goyings | Holton | 24.8 |
| 25 | 10 | Kayden Jager | Martin | 25.3 |
| 26 | 12 | Annabelle McRae | Holland Calvary Christian | 28.7 |
| 27 | 12 | Olivia Cleary | St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic | 29.3 |
| 28 | 12 | Isabel Emerick | Vermontville Maple Valley | 29.7 |
| 29 | 12 | Hannah Hysell | St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic | 30.3 |
| 30 | 8 | Evelyn Hop | Libertas Christian | 30.5 |
Region 32
What’s the Battle?
Another gem of a matchup for what looks to be the third spot. White Pigeon and Three Oaks River Valley appear to matchup spot for spot, which should be simple to discern when viewing on the Portage course. The one time these two teams saw each other was at the beginning of October, with the Chiefs finishing 10 points ahead of the Mustangs at the Portage Invite.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Bridgman | 25 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 3 |
| 2 | Kalamazoo Hackett | 32 | 2.0 | 95+ | 6 | |
| 3 | Three Oaks River Valley | 107 | 3.4 | 63 | 41 | |
| 4 | White Pigeon | 111 | 3.9 | 33 | 43 | |
| 5 | New Buffalo | 120 | 4.7 | 44 | ||
| 6 | Burr Oak | 150 | 6.0 | 58 | ||
| 7 | Decatur | 177 | 7.0 | 60 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Emma Riker | Kalamazoo Hackett | 1.3 |
| 2 | 12 | Presley Allen | Mendon | 2.1 |
| 3 | 12 | Melanie Warren | Bridgman | 3.7 |
| 4 | 11 | Rowan Allen | Mendon | 4.1 |
| 5 | 12 | Clara Fast | Bridgman | 4.7 |
| 6 | 10 | Brie Siems | Kalamazoo Hackett | 6.0 |
| 7 | 11 | Kandin Shuler | Bridgman | 6.7 |
| 8 | 9 | Anna Howell | Bridgman | 8.2 |
| 9 | 12 | Abby Ulbrich | Kalamazoo Hackett | 9.3 |
| 10 | 11 | Kate Van Es | Kalamazoo Hackett | 10.3 |
| 11 | 12 | Emily Howell | Bridgman | 11.1 |
| 12 | 9 | Kaylin Pinkowski | Bridgman | 12.5 |
| 13 | 9 | Delaney McBride | Kalamazoo Hackett | 13.5 |
| 14 | 10 | Harper Bowman | New Buffalo | 15.0 |
| 15 | 10 | Ella Hendrixson | Three Oaks River Valley | 15.6 |
| 16 | 9 | Abigail Riker | Kalamazoo Hackett | 16.7 |
| 17 | 12 | Rachel Schelstraete | White Pigeon | 19.2 |
| 18 | 10 | Anne Gradowski | New Buffalo | 19.7 |
| 19 | 10 | Emmy Nofs | Battle Creek St. Philip | 21.3 |
| 20 | 10 | Angel Milam | Bridgman | 22.7 |
| 21 | 12 | Braylyn Hernandez | Burr Oak | 23.0 |
| 22 | 10 | Helen Donner | Three Oaks River Valley | 23.7 |
| 23 | 12 | Maria Bronsink | Athens | 23.8 |
| 24 | 12 | Jamielynn Delarye | White Pigeon | 25.2 |
| 25 | 10 | Sarah Stemaly | Athens | 25.4 |
| 26 | 11 | Rachel Byler | White Pigeon | 25.5 |
| 27 | 9 | Brittney Hernandez | Three Oaks River Valley | 25.6 |
| 28 | 12 | Denisse Martinez-Vanegas | Eau Claire | 25.9 |
| 29 | 11 | Julianne Mounce | Kalamazoo Hackett | 28.4 |
| 30 | 9 | Linda Ultz | Burr Oak | 28.8 |
Region 33
What’s the Battle?
How low can the Trojans go? Last fall, Whitmore Lake provided a great preview of their state success, adding up to a mere 19 points here. They’ll probably be a bit higher this time around, but if their score is near or lower than projected, the Red n’ White will be in a great position to defend their crown.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Whitmore Lake | 27 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 1 |
| 2 | Lansing Christian | 61 | 2.4 | 95+ | 11 | |
| 3 | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 63 | 2.6 | 95+ | 13 | |
| 4 | Genesee Christian Academy | 105 | 4.0 | 31 | ||
| 5 | Livingston Christian | 125 | 5.0 | 40 | ||
| 6 | Webberville | 144 | 6.0 | 46 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 10 | Kaylie Livingston | Whitmore Lake | 1.0 |
| 2 | 11 | Carina Burchi | Whitmore Lake | 2.3 |
| 3 | 11 | Taylor Wiegand | Livingston Christian | 3.2 |
| 4 | 11 | Elodie Weaver | Whitmore Lake | 4.2 |
| 5 | 10 | Adrienne Mitchell | Lansing Christian | 5.7 |
| 6 | 12 | Brooke Sonnenberg | Genesee Christian Academy | 5.7 |
| 7 | 12 | Erica Walker | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 7.7 |
| 8 | 9 | Madison Markowicz | Novi Christian Academy | 10.5 |
| 9 | 11 | Sofia Robertson | Whitmore Lake | 10.5 |
| 10 | 12 | Autumn Reynolds | Potterville | 11.0 |
| 11 | 9 | Allison Schmitt | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 11.5 |
| 12 | 12 | Isabella Nelson-Daniels | Whitmore Lake | 12.3 |
| 13 | 10 | Annie Wernet | Lansing Christian | 14.0 |
| 14 | 11 | Juliette Tallon | Lansing Christian | 14.1 |
| 15 | 10 | Susan Nedwick | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 15.6 |
| 16 | 9 | Gabriella Wood | Lansing Christian | 15.7 |
| 17 | 12 | Isabella Page | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 17.2 |
| 18 | 9 | Malynda Lambros | Whitmore Lake | 17.3 |
| 19 | 11 | Alaina Driver | Potterville | 17.4 |
| 20 | 12 | Maria Saad | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 21.3 |
| 21 | 10 | Makenna Bush | Lansing Christian | 21.5 |
| 22 | 10 | Caroline Darrah | Whitmore Lake | 21.7 |
| 23 | 10 | Jane Wilder | Webberville | 22.8 |
| 24 | 11 | Tori Ferguson | Genesee Christian Academy | 23.5 |
| 25 | 12 | Adriana Fandino | Novi Christian Academy | 23.8 |
| 26 | 10 | Natasha Mendez | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 26.7 |
| 27 | 12 | Rebekah Hallock | Dansville | 26.8 |
| 28 | 9 | Ariana Stewart | Genesee Christian Academy | 27.1 |
| 29 | 11 | Anne McNurlen | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 28.8 |
| 30 | 12 | Audrey Johnson | Livingston Christian | 30.8 |
Region 34
What’s the Battle?
A few weeks back, Petersburg Summerfield placed ahead of an incomplete Addison team at Hudson Booster. The one Panther missing was a key one, Stephanie Hernandez, who just nailed a season’s best to finish 5th in the Cascades Conference. Of course, a Concord could always be in there, too. The Yellowjackets are missing from here because they’ve competed with a full squad only in Big 8 meets, which are a bit too small for me to perform the math on. Pittsford also has strength up front and the region is small enough that they won’t be hurt on depth. Beyond Hillsdale Academy and possibly Lenawee Christian, every spot is up for grabs.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Hillsdale Academy | 25 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 2 |
| 2 | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 81 | 2.2 | 95+ | 32 | |
| 3 | Petersburg-Summerfield | 88 | 3.0 | 88 | 34 | |
| 4 | Addison | 94 | 3.9 | 13 | 38 | |
| 5 | Pittsford | 112 | 5.0 | 42 | ||
| 6 | Manchester | 124 | 6.0 | 52 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Izzy Brooks | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 1.0 |
| 2 | 10 | Evelyn Meyer | Hillsdale Academy | 3.3 |
| 3 | 12 | Ella Walton | Hillsdale Academy | 4.0 |
| 4 | 12 | Aubrey Appleman | Britton Deerfield | 5.2 |
| 5 | 12 | Caroline Roberts | Hillsdale Academy | 5.8 |
| 6 | 10 | Allie Miller | Hillsdale Academy | 6.7 |
| 7 | 12 | Stephanie Hernandez | Addison | 7.2 |
| 8 | 10 | Haley Stimer | Concord | 8.1 |
| 9 | 12 | Riley McCumber | Pittsford | 8.1 |
| 10 | 11 | Makenzie Wolfe | Petersburg-Summerfield | 8.4 |
| 11 | 11 | Elizabeth Caspar | Hillsdale Academy | 11.0 |
| 12 | 11 | Audrey Nehlsen | Hillsdale Academy | 11.6 |
| 13 | 11 | Cieara Barrett | Concord | 13.5 |
| 14 | 10 | Moira Beier | Hillsdale Academy | 13.6 |
| 15 | 10 | Lillian Jagielski | Pittsford | 14.4 |
| 16 | 9 | Mya Barrett | Concord | 16.7 |
| 17 | 10 | Caroline Mason | Manchester | 18.8 |
| 18 | 9 | Ellie Woodring | Addison | 18.9 |
| 19 | 11 | Grace Raymond | Petersburg-Summerfield | 19.3 |
| 20 | 12 | Taylor Lautermilch | Camden-Frontier | 20.1 |
| 21 | 9 | Abby Raymond | Petersburg-Summerfield | 20.3 |
| 22 | 10 | Gigi Masters | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 20.6 |
| 23 | 10 | Kendalyn Perry | Addison | 21.3 |
| 24 | 10 | Kendall Plate | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 24.9 |
| 25 | 9 | Kendall Micon | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 25.7 |
| 26 | 12 | Lilly Smith | Manchester | 27.8 |
| 27 | 12 | Allison Morris | Addison | 28.1 |
| 28 | 12 | Sophia Falater | Reading | 28.4 |
| 29 | 10 | Josephine Pederson | Ann Arbor Rudolf Steiner | 29.8 |
| 30 | 10 | Hannah Ryan | Concord | 30.5 |
Region 35
What’s the Battle?
Can Lilah Kiley win two in a row? The Kingston mid-distance star has moved from a stellar season on the track to a fall where she’s run her best times in two years. Yes, that’s right, her 19:46 at Ubly was Lilah’s fastest performance since this region’s 2022 race. Dryden’s Cara Prusakiewicz finished a bit back from Kiley at the BTC League Meet, but has brought forth the ability to expediently race, having run 20:17 at Greater Flint.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Ubly | 37 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 10 |
| 2 | Harbor Beach | 64 | 2.3 | 95+ | 21 | |
| 3 | Unionville-Sebewaing | 67 | 2.7 | 95+ | 19 | |
| 4 | Dryden | 89 | 4.0 | 26 | ||
| 5 | Brown City | 119 | 5.0 | 35 | ||
| 6 | Kinde North Huron | 164 | 6.2 | 48 | ||
| 7 | Marlette | 172 | 6.8 | 54 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Lilah Kiley | Kingston | 1.2 |
| 2 | 11 | Cara Prusakiewicz | Dryden | 2.3 |
| 3 | 9 | Alyvia Janke | Unionville-Sebewaing | 3.1 |
| 4 | 11 | Katie Sweeney | Ubly | 4.9 |
| 5 | 12 | Julia Rogers | New Life Christian Academy | 5.5 |
| 6 | 9 | Payton King | Kingston | 5.7 |
| 7 | 9 | Abbygail Plester | Ubly | 6.9 |
| 8 | 12 | Reece Wruble | Harbor Beach | 8.1 |
| 9 | 9 | Myah Peruski | Ubly | 10.2 |
| 10 | 9 | Taylor Geiger | Ubly | 10.6 |
| 11 | 12 | Cambree Torma | Unionville-Sebewaing | 13.0 |
| 12 | 9 | Claire Wright | Dryden | 13.0 |
| 13 | 12 | Bridget Anderson | Harbor Beach | 13.5 |
| 14 | 12 | Kyra Beemer | Brown City | 14.0 |
| 15 | 10 | Aspen Jimkoski | Kinde North Huron | 16.7 |
| 16 | 9 | Emily Meek | Unionville-Sebewaing | 17.2 |
| 17 | 11 | HarLee Leasher | Brown City | 17.4 |
| 18 | 9 | Brooklyn Morell | Ubly | 17.6 |
| 19 | 12 | Emma Ramisch | Harbor Beach | 18.7 |
| 20 | 10 | Cailin Spearman | Harbor Beach | 20.2 |
| 21 | 10 | Spearman Cailin | Harbor Beach | 22.4 |
| 22 | 12 | Sarah Nimtz | Unionville-Sebewaing | 23.6 |
| 23 | 11 | Hailey McGuire | Kingston | 24.0 |
| 24 | 9 | Allison Steeb | Deckerville | 24.4 |
| 25 | 9 | Esther Bulgrien | Harbor Beach | 25.4 |
| 26 | 11 | Madison Prowse | Brown City | 25.6 |
| 27 | 12 | Megan Peter | Unionville-Sebewaing | 27.0 |
| 28 | 11 | Caila Fitchett | Dryden | 27.5 |
| 29 | 9 | Lilyana Lasher | Dryden | 28.8 |
| 30 | 10 | Nicole Klee | Ubly | 29.3 |
Region 36
What’s the Battle?
Will the Auburn Hills Oakland Christian momentum continue? Watching the rankings throughout the fall, the Lancers have gradually moved up the D4 ranks. At last week’s MIAC Championship, the girls were about as close as a team will get to Whitmore Lake. A sneaky candidate to step onto the MIS medal stand.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 37 | 1.2 | 83 | 95+ | 7 |
| 2 | Royal Oak Shrine | 50 | 1.8 | 17 | 95+ | 12 |
| 3 | Plymouth Christian Academy | 72 | 3.0 | 95+ | 22 | |
| 4 | Allen Park Cabrini | 100 | 4.0 | 33 | ||
| 5 | Southfield Christian | 141 | 6.0 | 50 | ||
| 6 | Academy of the Sacred Heart | 142 | 5.9 | 49 | ||
| 7 | Austin Catholic | 144 | 6.1 | 51 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Eliza Keith | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 1.1 |
| 2 | 12 | Natalie Gibbs | Birmingham Roeper | 2.5 |
| 3 | 11 | Eleanor Cole | Lutheran Westland | 3.8 |
| 4 | 11 | Madi Hare | Plymouth Christian Academy | 4.4 |
| 5 | 10 | Lydia Gleason | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 5.6 |
| 6 | 9 | Cassidy Bowers | Austin Catholic | 6.0 |
| 7 | 11 | Stella Behnan | Cardinal Mooney Catholic | 7.7 |
| 8 | 9 | Deirdre O’Connell | Allen Park Cabrini | 9.1 |
| 9 | 12 | Rose Losey | Royal Oak Shrine | 10.4 |
| 10 | 12 | Bridget Miller | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 11.0 |
| 11 | 10 | Louisa Denks | Royal Oak Shrine | 11.2 |
| 12 | 9 | Nora Tillman | Royal Oak Shrine | 12.0 |
| 13 | 11 | Raley Keith | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 14.6 |
| 14 | 12 | Tess Tillman | Royal Oak Shrine | 16.0 |
| 15 | 11 | Maya Ferguson | Cardinal Mooney Catholic | 16.8 |
| 16 | 9 | Ava Bates | Lutheran Westland | 18.0 |
| 17 | 12 | Sarah Goodwin | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 18.2 |
| 18 | 11 | Alexa Ross | Academy of the Sacred Heart | 18.5 |
| 19 | 9 | Katie Vick | Plymouth Christian Academy | 19.1 |
| 20 | 12 | Ella Poulton | Royal Oak Shrine | 19.3 |
| 21 | 10 | Sydney Erickson | Lutheran Westland | 19.5 |
| 22 | 12 | Lauren Baxendale | Plymouth Christian Academy | 19.9 |
| 23 | 10 | Kassie Kozlo | Allen Park Cabrini | 23.0 |
| 24 | 10 | Ella Clarke | Southfield Christian | 23.4 |
| 25 | 12 | Blythe Drotman | Plymouth Christian Academy | 25.8 |
| 26 | 10 | Elsa Jeromin | Southfield Christian | 25.9 |
| 27 | 12 | Chloe Surhigh | Royal Oak Shrine | 26.1 |
| 28 | 11 | Zipporah Tran | Plymouth Christian Academy | 26.8 |
| 29 | 12 | Annaliese Losey | Royal Oak Shrine | 26.8 |
| 30 | 9 | Isabella Sparling | Cardinal Mooney Catholic | 30.5 |
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 