Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.
Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
| Tanner Time | Tanner Rating | Tanner Avg. | Tanner StDev. |
| 15:30 | 210 | ||
| 15:45 | 205 | ||
| 16:00 | 200 | ||
| 16:15 | 195 | ||
| 16:30 | 190 | 200 | 7.91 |
| MIXCSR Time | MIXCSR Rating | MIXCSR Avg. | MIXCSR StDev. |
| 16:09 | 197 | ||
| 16:12 | 196 | ||
| 16:15 | 195 | ||
| 16:18 | 194 | ||
| 16:21 | 193 | 195 | 1.58 |
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
| Race | Tanner Avg. | Tanner StDev | Tanner Rating | MIXCSR Avg. | MIXCSR StDev | MIXCSR Rating |
| 1 | 200 | 7.9 | 202.1 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.6 |
| 2 | 200 | 7.9 | 196.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.1 |
| 3 | 200 | 7.9 | 190.0 | 195 | 1.6 | 199.2 |
| 4 | 200 | 7.9 | 193.4 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.5 |
| 5 | 200 | 7.9 | 206.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.7 |
| 6 | 200 | 7.9 | 201.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.1 |
| 7 | 200 | 7.9 | 171.6 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.9 |
| 8 | 200 | 7.9 | 189.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.9 |
| 9 | 200 | 7.9 | 205.5 | 195 | 1.6 | 197.0 |
| 10 | 200 | 7.9 | 203.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.6 |
| 11 | 200 | 7.9 | 192.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.5 |
| 12 | 200 | 7.9 | 196.9 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.4 |
| 13 | 200 | 7.9 | 198.5 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.6 |
| 14 | 200 | 7.9 | 203.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.1 |
| 15 | 200 | 7.9 | 193.9 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.6 |
| 16 | 200 | 7.9 | 199.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 193.2 |
| 17 | 200 | 7.9 | 208.7 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.2 |
| 18 | 200 | 7.9 | 213.7 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.6 |
| 19 | 200 | 7.9 | 212.6 | 195 | 1.6 | 197.1 |
| 20 | 200 | 7.9 | 206.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 193.9 |
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.
Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!
Region 10
What’s the Battle?
As I had anticipated over the summer, Region 10 will be competitive both for attaining a trip to MIS and hoisting a regional championship trophy. Fremont has moved into the 3rd spot here, greatly helped by the improved efforts of Mossen Green, a sophomore who has moved into the 17’s for his past three races. Sparta had been ranked well all year, but unfortunately seems to be missing one of their top contributors. Though an extremely quick top-three gives them a chance to put some distance on the Packers.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Cedar Springs | 92 | 1.2 | 80 | 95+ | 10 |
| 2 | Gladwin | 105 | 2.2 | 15 | 95+ | 12 |
| 3 | Fremont | 122 | 3.1 | 74 | 20 | |
| 4 | Sparta | 135 | 4.2 | 22 | 21 | |
| 5 | Spring Lake | 150 | 5.4 | 25 | ||
| 6 | Petoskey | 157 | 5.8 | 27 | ||
| 7 | Whitehall | 168 | 6.8 | 32 | ||
| 8 | Howard City Tri-County | 186 | 8.1 | 33 | ||
| 9 | Ludington | 202 | 9.2 | 40 | ||
| 10 | Big Rapids | 202 | 9.2 | 39 | ||
| 11 | Muskegon Oakridge | 267 | 11.1 | 70 | ||
| 12 | Cadillac | 289 | 12.0 | 62 | ||
| 13 | Fruitport | 305 | 12.9 | 80 | ||
| 14 | Gaylord | 413 | 14.0 | 108 | ||
| 15 | Muskegon Orchard View | 460 | 15.0 | 118 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Elijah Christensen | Gladwin | 1.3 |
| 2 | 12 | Seth Mead | Gladwin | 2.7 |
| 3 | 11 | Owen Metzger | Sparta | 3.7 |
| 4 | 12 | Vincent Pollock | Fruitport | 4.1 |
| 5 | 12 | Stewart Waters | Whitehall | 5.5 |
| 6 | 11 | Ethan Shoffner | Cedar Springs | 6.6 |
| 7 | 12 | Carter Sherman | Fremont | 7.7 |
| 8 | 12 | Justin Bradford | Sparta | 8.6 |
| 9 | 12 | Hayden Gould | Big Rapids | 9.3 |
| 10 | 12 | Parker Woodwyk | Spring Lake | 9.8 |
| 11 | 11 | Ben Verellen | Gladwin | 11.1 |
| 12 | 10 | Peyton Farrell | Cedar Springs | 14.8 |
| 13 | 12 | Peyton Ruel | Muskegon Oakridge | 15.1 |
| 14 | 11 | Hunter Parsons | Whitehall | 16.2 |
| 15 | 10 | Reeve Oberman | Petoskey | 16.6 |
| 16 | 11 | Carson Wood | Sparta | 17.2 |
| 17 | 12 | Cole Lowery | Fremont | 17.4 |
| 18 | 11 | Aiden Weller | Cedar Springs | 17.5 |
| 19 | 11 | Zahar Rush | Petoskey | 21.7 |
| 20 | 12 | Parker Fettig | Petoskey | 22.8 |
| 21 | 12 | Andrew Boeringa | Whitehall | 24.1 |
| 22 | 10 | Bryce Falbe | Muskegon Oakridge | 24.4 |
| 23 | 12 | Blake Taylor | Fremont | 25.3 |
| 24 | 11 | Alex Culver | Howard City Tri-County | 25.7 |
| 25 | 12 | David Reisterer | Ludington | 26.5 |
| 26 | 10 | Myles Robinson | Gladwin | 26.8 |
| 27 | 10 | Gabe Grierson | Ludington | 27.3 |
| 28 | 9 | Tadhg Shoffner | Cedar Springs | 27.6 |
| 29 | 9 | Declan Shoffner | Cedar Springs | 31.5 |
| 30 | 11 | Lukus Mendoza | Spring Lake | 32.5 |
Region 11
What’s the Battle?
The concentration of a great running community bears its head in the individual race, where Jeb Hillary, Kilian Whalen, and Will Engbers are all candidates to win. Portage was home to all three, with Engbers nabbing a PR in his 2nd place finish. Hillary and then Whalen trekked in close behind. Engbers has been lightly raced in the three weeks since, picking up an OK Black title. Whalen and Hillary have each nabbed PR’s of their own.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Allendale | 32 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 1 |
| 2 | Holland Christian | 62 | 2.0 | 95+ | 4 | |
| 3 | Grand Rapids Catholic Central | 111 | 3.0 | 95+ | 23 | |
| 4 | Zeeland East | 135 | 4.2 | 26 | ||
| 5 | Hamilton | 146 | 5.3 | 35 | ||
| 6 | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 148 | 5.6 | 29 | ||
| 7 | Holland | 182 | 7.0 | 50 | ||
| 8 | Hopkins | 233 | 8.0 | 74 | ||
| 9 | Comstock Park | 278 | 9.9 | 82 | ||
| 10 | Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills | 286 | 10.8 | 87 | ||
| 11 | Grand Rapids West Catholic | 288 | 10.8 | 89 | ||
| 12 | Grand River Preparatory | 288 | 10.9 | 88 | ||
| 13 | Coopersville | 318 | 12.6 | 100 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Jeb Hillary | Grand Rapids Catholic Central | 1.8 |
| 2 | 12 | Will Engbers | Holland Christian | 2.3 |
| 3 | 12 | Kilian Whalen | Allendale | 2.4 |
| 4 | 11 | Ronnie Silveira | Allendale | 4.4 |
| 5 | 12 | Ben Gross | Allendale | 5.2 |
| 6 | 12 | Abatu Dykstra | Hamilton | 6.4 |
| 7 | 10 | Mitchell Dunlap | Grand Rapids Catholic Central | 7.5 |
| 8 | 12 | Andrew Commeret | Comstock Park | 8.8 |
| 9 | 12 | Parker Tiethof | Allendale | 9.0 |
| 10 | 10 | Mason Hill | Allendale | 10.7 |
| 11 | 12 | Will Whitmore | Holland Christian | 10.7 |
| 12 | 12 | Noah Hernandez | Hamilton | 12.1 |
| 13 | 11 | Landon Gerritsma | Holland Christian | 13.0 |
| 14 | 12 | Caden Guffey | Zeeland East | 13.4 |
| 15 | 11 | Jack Estelle | Hopkins | 14.3 |
| 16 | 11 | Aden Ashworth | Allendale | 17.5 |
| 17 | 12 | Aidan Brinks | Holland Christian | 17.8 |
| 18 | 10 | Graeson Decker | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 18.3 |
| 19 | 12 | Sam Downing | Zeeland East | 19.4 |
| 20 | 12 | Brayden Rynsburger | Holland Christian | 19.4 |
| 21 | 12 | Aiden Kasprzak | Grand Rapids Catholic Central | 20.3 |
| 22 | 12 | Nathan Steen | Holland Christian | 22.0 |
| 23 | 9 | Aiden Lambers | Holland | 23.0 |
| 24 | 11 | Riley Hart | Holland Christian | 23.4 |
| 25 | 10 | Nate Davis | Zeeland East | 25.4 |
| 26 | 10 | Alex Ten Haken | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 25.9 |
| 27 | 12 | Caleb DenHartigh | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 26.3 |
| 28 | 12 | Ben Dykstra | Hamilton | 27.5 |
| 29 | 12 | Jackson Meyers | Allendale | 28.8 |
| 30 | 9 | Kash Moored | Hopkins | 29.7 |
Region 12
What’s the Battle?
You’d think with three top-6 teams, it’d get a bit more exciting. Grand Rapids Christian, Forest Hills Eastern, and East Grand Rapids, all OK White competitors, all positioned as strong favorites to advance. The only question is the order. The Eagles captured all three of the jamborees, the Pioneers finished ahead of the Hawks in two of them. The same general order was the case at Portage. Perhaps the fifth (or more?) time’s the charm?
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Grand Rapids Christian | 50 | 1.1 | 94 | 95+ | 2 |
| 2 | Forest Hills Eastern | 69 | 2.4 | 5 | 95+ | 5 |
| 3 | East Grand Rapids | 73 | 2.6 | 95+ | 6 | |
| 4 | Plainwell | 128 | 4.0 | 16 | ||
| 5 | Richland Gull Lake | 184 | 5.2 | 38 | ||
| 6 | Wayland Union | 212 | 6.8 | 54 | ||
| 7 | Portland | 214 | 6.7 | 51 | ||
| 8 | GR West Michigan Aviation | 234 | 8.5 | 60 | ||
| 9 | Grand Rapids South Christian | 236 | 8.7 | 58 | ||
| 10 | Belding | 249 | 10.0 | 69 | ||
| 11 | Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg | 251 | 10.2 | 73 | ||
| 12 | Hastings | 294 | 12.0 | 81 | ||
| 13 | Lake Odessa Lakewood | 324 | 13.4 | 86 | ||
| 14 | Ionia | 332 | 13.6 | 91 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Henry Dixon | Forest Hills Eastern | 1.1 |
| 2 | 11 | Jonah Workman | East Grand Rapids | 2.4 |
| 3 | 12 | Simon Triezenberg | Grand Rapids Christian | 2.5 |
| 4 | 10 | Steven Zawacki | Forest Hills Eastern | 6.0 |
| 5 | 12 | Jacob Draaisma | Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg | 6.0 |
| 6 | 11 | Jack Edison | East Grand Rapids | 7.8 |
| 7 | 11 | Donovan Ryan | Plainwell | 8.0 |
| 8 | 9 | Micah Becker | East Grand Rapids | 8.8 |
| 9 | 11 | Sean Ryan | Grand Rapids Christian | 9.1 |
| 10 | 12 | Keegan Hoekstra | Grand Rapids Christian | 9.4 |
| 11 | 11 | Jeryn Frisbie | Belding | 12.4 |
| 12 | 12 | Brandon Simmons | Hastings | 14.0 |
| 13 | 11 | Micah Small | Grand Rapids Christian | 14.8 |
| 14 | 12 | Dylan Pallett | Wayland Union | 14.9 |
| 15 | 9 | Ashton Fink | Grand Rapids Christian | 16.3 |
| 16 | 11 | Hiro Nguyen | Plainwell | 17.3 |
| 17 | 11 | Asher Jager | GR West Michigan Aviation | 18.1 |
| 18 | 11 | Shephard Bower | Forest Hills Eastern | 18.6 |
| 19 | 9 | James Scholten-Holcomb | Grand Rapids Christian | 20.1 |
| 20 | 12 | Tyler Endres | Forest Hills Eastern | 20.1 |
| 21 | 11 | Thad VanderLaan | Grand Rapids South Christian | 23.6 |
| 22 | 11 | Gavin Markucki | Richland Gull Lake | 24.1 |
| 23 | 11 | Tyler VanKuiken | East Grand Rapids | 24.5 |
| 24 | 12 | Micah Johnson | Hastings | 24.9 |
| 25 | 12 | Billy Pipkorn | Plainwell | 25.2 |
| 26 | 11 | Andrew Feldpausch | Portland | 26.0 |
| 27 | 11 | Cooper Donovan | Forest Hills Eastern | 26.4 |
| 28 | 9 | James Scholten-Holcom | Grand Rapids Christian | 27.2 |
| 29 | 11 | Trent Hansen | Plainwell | 28.2 |
| 30 | 12 | Nick Whitmer | Forest Hills Eastern | 28.2 |
Region 13
What’s the Battle?
Three Rivers, attempting to hold off Edwardsburg or beat Otsego for the third time. The Wildcats conquered the Otsego giant during the Wolverine Conference season, winning their first league championship in many years. Though the conference season didn’t see the emergence of Gunnar Djerf, who’s suddenly knocking on the sub-17 door. Edwardsburg placed 2nd in that conference meet, buoyed by the coming out party of a Riley Szalai, a freshman who’s progressed from the 20+ range into the 17’s. Though megafans of the site will know this – the Wildcats are forever underrated.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Marshall | 76 | 1.1 | 94 | 95+ | 8 |
| 2 | Otsego | 96 | 2.3 | 6 | 92 | 14 |
| 3 | Three Rivers | 103 | 2.9 | 81 | 18 | |
| 4 | Edwardsburg | 116 | 3.7 | 26 | 24 | |
| 5 | Battle Creek Harper Creek | 139 | 5.2 | 30 | ||
| 6 | St. Joseph | 152 | 5.7 | 42 | ||
| 7 | Berrien Springs | 197 | 7.7 | 55 | ||
| 8 | Sturgis | 203 | 8.1 | 56 | ||
| 9 | Vicksburg | 208 | 8.5 | 57 | ||
| 10 | Niles | 225 | 9.7 | 65 | ||
| 11 | Paw Paw | 261 | 11.2 | 76 | ||
| 12 | Coldwater | 278 | 11.7 | 78 | ||
| 13 | Dowagiac Union | 354 | 13.0 | 101 | ||
| 14 | South Haven | 428 | 14.3 | 112 | ||
| 15 | Stevensville Lakeshore | 440 | 14.7 | 116 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Jack Bidwell | Marshall | 1.0 |
| 2 | 12 | Dominic Lowrie | Battle Creek Harper Creek | 2.5 |
| 3 | 10 | Abraham McHugh | Marshall | 3.5 |
| 4 | 12 | Sullivan Zietlow | Three Rivers | 3.6 |
| 5 | 12 | Reece Davis | Marshall | 5.5 |
| 6 | 10 | Caiden Caswell | Vicksburg | 5.9 |
| 7 | 11 | George Scupham | Edwardsburg | 8.2 |
| 8 | 12 | Eli Johansen | St. Joseph | 9.0 |
| 9 | 12 | Maguire Johnson | Edwardsburg | 10.0 |
| 10 | 12 | Owen Saylor | Dowagiac Union | 11.0 |
| 11 | 12 | Nolan Park | Sturgis | 11.4 |
| 12 | 12 | Aidan Goodwin | Otsego | 13.4 |
| 13 | 11 | Kenny Sheffer | Otsego | 14.2 |
| 14 | 11 | Cooper Gardner | Battle Creek Harper Creek | 14.3 |
| 15 | 11 | Charlie Brauer | Three Rivers | 14.6 |
| 16 | 12 | Matthew Long | Otsego | 15.2 |
| 17 | 10 | Christopher Vogt | Paw Paw | 18.0 |
| 18 | 12 | Noah Jarvis | Berrien Springs | 19.8 |
| 19 | 12 | Peyton Eckerley | Berrien Springs | 20.9 |
| 20 | 11 | Benjamin Morales | Sturgis | 22.3 |
| 21 | 10 | Kellen Chalupa | Allegan | 22.8 |
| 22 | 10 | Seth Randall | St. Joseph | 23.4 |
| 23 | 11 | Reece Howes | Three Rivers | 23.9 |
| 24 | 10 | Connor Beebe | Berrien Springs | 24.5 |
| 25 | 10 | Hunter Smith | Vicksburg | 25.0 |
| 26 | 10 | Christian Ayres | Battle Creek Harper Creek | 26.0 |
| 27 | 10 | Gunnar Djerf | Otsego | 26.7 |
| 28 | 11 | Clark Erwin | Marshall | 28.4 |
| 29 | 12 | Caleb Wesseldyk | Otsego | 28.6 |
| 30 | 9 | Reed Gates | Edwardsburg | 29.4 |
Region 14
What’s the Battle?
Seems pretty chalky from the teams, the individuals not so much. Edison Lopeman is known as a championship racer, hitting All-State in track and ripping some mid-15’s come October. Ezekiel Baltierra is making his presence known in important meets, placing 2nd at Greater Lansing. Dylan Lydic is coming in as the CAAC Red Champion and has stepped into the 15’s on a few occasions too.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Alma | 46 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 3 |
| 2 | DeWitt | 96 | 2.0 | 95+ | 13 | |
| 3 | Corunna | 119 | 3.0 | 95+ | 22 | |
| 4 | Parma Western | 144 | 4.1 | 28 | ||
| 5 | Williamston | 164 | 5.4 | 36 | ||
| 6 | Haslett | 174 | 6.1 | 44 | ||
| 7 | Mason | 180 | 6.5 | 45 | ||
| 8 | Fowlerville | 210 | 8.1 | 53 | ||
| 9 | St. Johns | 239 | 9.2 | 61 | ||
| 10 | Eaton Rapids | 253 | 10.0 | 66 | ||
| 11 | Owosso | 269 | 10.7 | 75 | ||
| 12 | Charlotte | 307 | 12.0 | 79 | ||
| 13 | Jackson Northwest | 367 | 13.5 | 96 | ||
| 14 | Lansing Waverly | 369 | 13.5 | 97 | ||
| 15 | Lansing Eastern | 430 | 15.1 | 110 | ||
| 16 | Lansing Sexton | 452 | 16.0 | 115 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Edison Lopeman | Parma Western | 1.9 |
| 2 | 10 | Ezekiel Baltierra | Alma | 2.1 |
| 3 | 11 | Thomas Larson | Alma | 2.7 |
| 4 | 12 | Dylan Lydic | Haslett | 4.4 |
| 5 | 12 | Alex Doneth | Mason | 4.9 |
| 6 | 12 | Nolan Inglis | DeWitt | 7.2 |
| 7 | 12 | Simon Erfourth | Owosso | 7.4 |
| 8 | 9 | Duncan Palmer | Williamston | 7.8 |
| 9 | 12 | Bobby Donley | Corunna | 10.9 |
| 10 | 11 | Elijah Baltierra | Alma | 11.6 |
| 11 | 10 | Kevin Terpstra | Alma | 12.0 |
| 12 | 10 | Ryan Good | Parma Western | 12.3 |
| 13 | 12 | Jackson Walthorn | DeWitt | 12.5 |
| 14 | 12 | Conner McCormick | Mason | 12.5 |
| 15 | 11 | Reagan Ward | St. Johns | 13.0 |
| 16 | 12 | Bodie Heiss | Alma | 18.0 |
| 17 | 10 | Ryan Frantz | Haslett | 19.2 |
| 18 | 11 | Payton Chandler | Corunna | 19.2 |
| 19 | 10 | Ezra Nellis | Corunna | 19.4 |
| 20 | 11 | Luca Lebron | Alma | 23.5 |
| 21 | 12 | Jaxon Strauch | Corunna | 24.8 |
| 22 | 10 | Thaddeus Overley | Lansing Waverly | 25.3 |
| 23 | 9 | Teddy Weber | Williamston | 25.5 |
| 24 | 12 | Ian Goodrich | DeWitt | 25.7 |
| 25 | 9 | Logan Banner | St. Johns | 25.8 |
| 26 | 12 | Braylen Eaton | Charlotte | 26.5 |
| 27 | 11 | Joshua Carpenter | DeWitt | 26.5 |
| 28 | 9 | Sam Johnson | Alma | 26.9 |
| 29 | 11 | Raymond Herek | Williamston | 27.2 |
| 30 | 12 | Jack Huntington | Eaton Rapids | 28.0 |
Region 15
What’s the Battle?
Four top-15 squads coming for three spots. Shepherd, extremely familiar with their home course, projects to be 3rd. Freeland, only needing to score four, comes in the third spot. As of this time, it appears that the advantage lies with the 3rd & 4th boys, putting enough of a gap on the Falcons to overcome the Hansen advantage.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Frankenmuth | 62 | 1.1 | 90 | 95+ | 7 |
| 2 | Flint Powers Catholic | 73 | 2.1 | 10 | 95+ | 9 |
| 3 | Shepherd | 81 | 2.9 | 91 | 11 | |
| 4 | Freeland | 96 | 3.9 | 9 | 15 | |
| 5 | Flint Kearsley | 132 | 5.1 | 41 | ||
| 6 | Goodrich | 149 | 5.9 | 49 | ||
| 7 | Saginaw Swan Valley | 197 | 7.0 | 72 | ||
| 8 | Bay City John Glenn | 243 | 8.0 | 83 | ||
| 9 | Birch Run | 269 | 9.1 | 90 | ||
| 10 | Essexville-Garber | 285 | 9.9 | 95 | ||
| 11 | Ortonville Brandon | 308 | 11.5 | 104 | ||
| 12 | North Branch | 309 | 11.5 | 109 | ||
| 13 | Imlay City | 339 | 13.0 | 113 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | TJ Hansen | Freeland | 1.0 |
| 2 | 9 | Lennox Naswell | Flint Powers Catholic | 3.7 |
| 3 | 11 | Vincent Pattison | Goodrich | 4.0 |
| 4 | 11 | Bryce Gross | Flint Powers Catholic | 4.3 |
| 5 | 10 | Bryce Cahoon | Shepherd | 4.6 |
| 6 | 12 | Jack Lillywhite | Flint Kearsley | 5.7 |
| 7 | 12 | Nolan Longuski | Shepherd | 5.9 |
| 8 | 11 | Brett Magnus | Frankenmuth | 8.4 |
| 9 | 10 | Nicklas Parker | Frankenmuth | 9.1 |
| 10 | 11 | Anthony Plana | Frankenmuth | 11.6 |
| 11 | 12 | Ethan Sellers | Flint Kearsley | 11.8 |
| 12 | 12 | Owen Fennelly | Saginaw Swan Valley | 12.2 |
| 13 | 10 | Seth Betzold | Essexville-Garber | 14.1 |
| 14 | 12 | Cougar Clark | Frankenmuth | 15.7 |
| 15 | 11 | Ian McNeel | Shepherd | 15.8 |
| 16 | 12 | Cole Winter | Goodrich | 16.4 |
| 17 | 11 | Cole Pergram | Frankenmuth | 17.5 |
| 18 | 12 | Camden McLeod | Freeland | 17.7 |
| 19 | 11 | Thomas Beiter | Flint Powers Catholic | 18.9 |
| 20 | 12 | Sam Nemeth | Freeland | 19.3 |
| 21 | 11 | Cole Fernandez | Flint Kearsley | 19.3 |
| 22 | 11 | Henry Schanbeck | Bay City John Glenn | 22.1 |
| 23 | 10 | Ben Bouchey | Flint Powers Catholic | 24.4 |
| 24 | 11 | Caleb Carignan | Flint Powers Catholic | 24.7 |
| 25 | 10 | Drew Davis | Shepherd | 25.5 |
| 26 | 9 | Ryan Rathsburg | Flint Powers Catholic | 25.9 |
| 27 | 10 | Jackson Horn | Freeland | 28.3 |
| 28 | 11 | Jacob Hylton | Ortonville Brandon | 28.8 |
| 29 | 11 | Jagger Clark | Frankenmuth | 29.1 |
| 30 | 10 | Nathan Anaya | Freeland | 29.9 |
Region 16
What’s the Battle?
How will a bunch of flatland Metro Detroit schools handle the Holly hills? According to Jacob Tanner’s maps, charts, and graphs encyclopedic regional preview, only 5 of the region’s 18 squads have competed on this twisted course.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Pinckney | 41 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 17 |
| 2 | Detroit Country Day | 77 | 2.3 | 95+ | 37 | |
| 3 | Dearborn Divine Child | 85 | 2.7 | 95+ | 47 | |
| 4 | Orchard Lake St. Mary’s | 128 | 4.9 | 59 | ||
| 5 | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 129 | 5.0 | 68 | ||
| 6 | Lake Fenton | 130 | 5.1 | 67 | ||
| 7 | Redford Union | 186 | 7.0 | 84 | ||
| 8 | Linden | 223 | 8.4 | 93 | ||
| 9 | Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood | 235 | 8.9 | 98 | ||
| 10 | Oak Park | 258 | 9.6 | 107 | ||
| 11 | Garden City | 319 | 11.0 | 114 | ||
| 12 | Detroit Henry Ford | 362 | 12.0 | 121 | ||
| 13 | Detroit Cody | 396 | 13.0 | 124 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Colin Murray | Dearborn Divine Child | 1.0 |
| 2 | 10 | Cole McCraw | Pinckney | 2.3 |
| 3 | 12 | Zachary Newman | Pinckney | 4.0 |
| 4 | 11 | Cole Wisniewski | Orchard Lake St. Mary’s | 4.1 |
| 5 | 12 | Jacob Hopkins | Detroit Country Day | 5.1 |
| 6 | 10 | Omar Elbashir | Detroit Country Day | 6.2 |
| 7 | 12 | Isaak Brook | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 7.0 |
| 8 | 11 | Brodie Licata | Lake Fenton | 8.7 |
| 9 | 12 | Kyle Osborne | Pinckney | 8.8 |
| 10 | 9 | Ethan Bray | Detroit Country Day | 11.8 |
| 11 | 11 | Jake Yono | Orchard Lake St. Mary’s | 13.1 |
| 12 | 10 | Noah Neuman | Pinckney | 15.1 |
| 13 | 10 | Cooper Steckroth | Lake Fenton | 15.5 |
| 14 | 11 | Bela Matyus | Orchard Lake St. Mary’s | 15.8 |
| 15 | 11 | Nate Sandula | Pinckney | 15.8 |
| 16 | 12 | Nicholas Nakic | Dearborn Divine Child | 15.9 |
| 17 | 12 | Gabe Maciag | Pinckney | 16.6 |
| 18 | 9 | Jackson Butts | Lake Fenton | 16.8 |
| 19 | 11 | Wyatt Larson | Pinckney | 19.4 |
| 20 | 12 | Alex Kitsopanidis | Detroit Country Day | 20.0 |
| 21 | 10 | Joseph Arriola | Dearborn Divine Child | 22.5 |
| 22 | 12 | Ryan Wojichowski | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 22.6 |
| 23 | 12 | Deric Tavolette | Redford Union | 22.7 |
| 24 | 12 | Tamer Zahr | Dearborn Divine Child | 24.7 |
| 25 | 12 | Maximiliano Juarez | Dearborn Divine Child | 24.7 |
| 26 | 12 | Avery Fsadni | Redford Union | 27.8 |
| 27 | 9 | Andrew Nunning | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 28.1 |
| 28 | 12 | Nicholas Mardelli | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 28.5 |
| 29 | 10 | Grant Goodwin | Dearborn Divine Child | 28.9 |
| 30 | 12 | Michael Porter Jr. | Redford Union | 30.8 |
Region 17
What’s the Battle?
Three proud traditions, one regional trophy. Yale, St. Clair, Macomb Lutheran North. They all come from different walks – the BWAC, MAC Red, Catholic League. Thankfully the Brooks Mid-Season Spectacular has become sort of a regional haven for fast times and competition. Lutheran North placed ahead of St. Clair on that Goodells track. Both St. Clair and Yale traveled to Portage, where Yale finished a solid distance ahead of the Saints. Would appear that the Mustangs and Bulldogs are a bit ahead, though the Saints have nothing to lose.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Yale | 42 | 1.5 | 61 | 95+ | 46 |
| 2 | Macomb Lutheran North | 47 | 2.2 | 17 | 95+ | 43 |
| 3 | St. Clair | 49 | 2.3 | 22 | 95+ | 48 |
| 4 | Madison Heights Lamphere | 154 | 4.6 | 92 | ||
| 5 | Armada | 160 | 4.9 | 99 | ||
| 6 | Richmond | 168 | 5.8 | 94 | ||
| 7 | Croswell-Lexington | 183 | 7.4 | 102 | ||
| 8 | Marysville | 184 | 7.4 | 103 | ||
| 9 | Center Line | 291 | 9.2 | 120 | ||
| 10 | Harper Woods | 308 | 10.0 | 122 | ||
| 11 | Warren Lincoln | 337 | 11.1 | 123 | ||
| 12 | Detroit Southeastern Tech | 361 | 12.2 | 125 | ||
| 13 | Harper Woods Chandler Park | 373 | 13.1 | 126 | ||
| 14 | St. Clair Shores Lake Shore | 380 | 13.5 | 127 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 10 | Joshua Macri | Macomb Lutheran North | 1.1 |
| 2 | 11 | Xavier Roman | Macomb Lutheran North | 2.3 |
| 3 | 10 | Ethan Kreger | St. Clair | 3.5 |
| 4 | 12 | Wyatt Murtos | Yale | 5.2 |
| 5 | 11 | Brayden Prieskorn | St. Clair | 6.0 |
| 6 | 12 | Teddy Rutkofske | Yale | 6.1 |
| 7 | 12 | Jerry Westrick | St. Clair | 9.5 |
| 8 | 11 | Nolan Korolden | Yale | 9.7 |
| 9 | 11 | Samuel Kochensparger | Macomb Lutheran North | 9.7 |
| 10 | 10 | Connor Pepin | Croswell-Lexington | 11.3 |
| 11 | 12 | Kale Kovach | Yale | 11.4 |
| 12 | 10 | Logan Rhodes | Yale | 11.4 |
| 13 | 9 | Mason Pietrykowski | Richmond | 12.9 |
| 14 | 11 | Luke McDonell | St. Clair | 13.6 |
| 15 | 9 | Brady VanConant | Yale | 14.2 |
| 16 | 12 | Jack McMahon | Macomb Lutheran North | 15.2 |
| 17 | 12 | Georgio Aramouni | Madison Heights Lamphere | 17.0 |
| 18 | 12 | Korbyn Thornton | St. Clair | 18.6 |
| 19 | 12 | Pete Lutz | Madison Heights Lamphere | 19.0 |
| 20 | 11 | Oliver Alef | Macomb Lutheran North | 21.3 |
| 21 | 10 | Nino Biondo | Macomb Lutheran North | 21.3 |
| 22 | 10 | Brendan Koza | Marysville | 22.2 |
| 23 | 9 | Griffin Kreger | St. Clair | 23.6 |
| 24 | 9 | Elliot Alef | Macomb Lutheran North | 24.5 |
| 25 | 12 | Sawyer Rosberg | Richmond | 25.2 |
| 26 | 12 | Jack Nicol | Yale | 25.4 |
| 27 | 11 | Robert Carrigan | Armada | 27.3 |
| 28 | 11 | Gavin Bishop | St. Clair | 27.3 |
| 29 | 11 | Jack Kerrigan | Croswell-Lexington | 28.0 |
| 30 | 10 | Jeremy Johnson | Marysville | 29.9 |
Region 18
What’s the Battle?
New Boston Huron vs. history. The regional favorite looks to end a 35 year drought in state qualifying, as the last boys squad to advance did so in 1979. There will be some demons to smother from last year, thankfully the Chiefs’ dominant top-two is a comforting safety blanket.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | New Boston Huron | 55 | 1.1 | 94 | 95+ | 19 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 73 | 2.3 | 5 | 95+ | 34 |
| 3 | Adrian | 80 | 2.7 | 95+ | 31 | |
| 4 | Carleton Airport | 114 | 4.2 | 52 | ||
| 5 | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 138 | 5.2 | 63 | ||
| 6 | Tecumseh | 149 | 5.7 | 64 | ||
| 7 | Grosse Ile | 173 | 6.9 | 71 | ||
| 8 | Dundee | 206 | 8.1 | 77 | ||
| 9 | Ypsilanti Community | 234 | 8.8 | 85 | ||
| 10 | Riverview | 304 | 10.2 | 105 | ||
| 11 | Trenton | 319 | 10.9 | 106 | ||
| 12 | Milan | 355 | 12.0 | 111 | ||
| 13 | Dearborn Henry Ford Academy | 385 | 13.4 | 117 | ||
| 14 | Melvindale | 389 | 13.6 | 119 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Moises Salazar | Adrian | 1.2 |
| 2 | 12 | Lucas Kuhn | New Boston Huron | 1.9 |
| 3 | 11 | Luke Dulecki | New Boston Huron | 3.2 |
| 4 | 12 | Isaak Rubley | Dundee | 4.0 |
| 5 | 11 | Henry Fredenberg | Chelsea | 5.5 |
| 6 | 11 | Matthew Carbajo | Grosse Ile | 7.6 |
| 7 | 10 | Carter Fenner | Adrian | 8.0 |
| 8 | 12 | Callum Bell | Carleton Airport | 10.1 |
| 9 | 12 | Kyle Biller | New Boston Huron | 10.4 |
| 10 | 9 | Harrison Stamper | Tecumseh | 10.6 |
| 11 | 10 | Jonathan Rapoza | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 13.8 |
| 12 | 10 | Owen Thorburn | Chelsea | 13.8 |
| 13 | 10 | Cameron Crane | New Boston Huron | 13.9 |
| 14 | 11 | Linus Helzerman | Chelsea | 14.1 |
| 15 | 10 | Wyeth Angus | Chelsea | 16.8 |
| 16 | 9 | Eli Morris | Tecumseh | 18.3 |
| 17 | 10 | Landin Fisher | Adrian | 20.1 |
| 18 | 11 | Jacob Alt | Ypsilanti Community | 20.6 |
| 19 | 11 | William Dobbertin | Carleton Airport | 21.2 |
| 20 | 12 | Jack Fox | Grosse Ile | 21.9 |
| 21 | 9 | Easton Coscarelli | Adrian | 24.0 |
| 22 | 10 | Hunter Rodak | Carleton Airport | 25.4 |
| 23 | 10 | Tanner Kuhn | New Boston Huron | 25.8 |
| 24 | 9 | Easton Danic | Carleton Airport | 26.3 |
| 25 | 9 | Nicholas Ranka | Grosse Ile | 26.9 |
| 26 | 10 | Dylan Hodges | Chelsea | 27.1 |
| 27 | 12 | Malaki Muhammud | Ypsilanti Community | 27.3 |
| 28 | 11 | Matthew Wright | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 27.7 |
| 29 | 10 | Eddy Hedrick | Adrian | 29.7 |
| 30 | 10 | Sam Clifton | Chelsea | 31.0 |
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 