2024 Regional Projections: Division 3 Girls

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 19

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The pristine NW corner of the state will be home to a fierce competition for a qualifying spot. Elk Rapids has been a presence on the D3 scene for the past few years, Boyne City hasn’t qualified for State in 20+ seasons. Both the Ramblers and Elks are strong up front; thus, this will likely come down to the 3^rd thru 7^th girls.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Traverse City St. Francis	26	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Clare	79	2.0		95+	15
3	Boyne City	133	3.1		87	34
4	Elk Rapids	148	3.9		13	38
5	Charlevoix	182	6.1			53
6	Cheboygan	183	6.2			51
7	Grayling	183	6.4			55
8	Tawas	194	7.5			59
9	Kalkaska	215	9.0			67
10	Farwell	232	10.1			74
11	Standish-Sterling	243	10.7			78
12	Roscommon	272	12.0			86
13	Harrison	347	13.0			99

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	1.0
2	10	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	2.2
3	12	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	3.3
4	10	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	3.7
5	12	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	6.4
6	10	Nico Triebold	Grayling	8.3
7	10	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	8.5
8	11	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	9.7
9	11	Paige Ritchie	Traverse City St. Francis	10.5
10	9	Hailee Bertels	Boyne City	11.6
11	11	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	12.1
12	12	Alyssa Runyan	Tawas	12.4
13	12	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	13.2
14	9	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	14.8
15	11	Delaney Little	Boyne City	16.1
16	10	Lauren Leis	Clare	16.2
17	9	Leah Leis	Clare	16.3
18	10	Stella Houdek	Traverse City St. Francis	17.1
19	11	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	17.9
20	12	Maya Rohrer	Charlevoix	22.5
21	11	Olivia Forsberg	Clare	23.2
22	12	Avery Lopez	Oscoda	23.8
23	10	Elizabeth Letherer	Clare	24.0
24	12	Ashley Nguyen	Tawas	24.1
25	9	Aaliyah Hillier	Kalkaska	24.3
26	10	Cloee Rupp	Cheboygan	28.3
27	11	Rachel Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	28.5
28	9	Kylee Jenkins	Kalkaska	29.1
29	10	Catie Janisse	Roscommon	30.3
30	10	Davylynn Christie	Standish-Sterling	31.6

Region 20

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Can Remus Chippewa Hills spark some magic and knock off a Hart or McBain. Three years ago, the Warriors sprung a massive upset on their home course, setting off a streak of three straight state qualifying teams. In order to make it four, they’ll have to go through the traditionally strong Hart team and a McBain outfit that just dominated the Highland Conference.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Benzie Central	52	1.0	95+	95+	5
2	Hart	91	2.5		90	11
3	McBain	96	2.8		83	12
4	Remus Chippewa Hills	110	3.6		27	16
5	Lake City	162	5.4			28
6	Manistee	169	5.7			26
7	Reed City	202	7.2			39
8	Leroy Pine River	221	8.1			58
9	Shelby	235	8.9			54
10	Lakeview	256	10.0			65
11	Mason County Central	272	11.0			71
12	Manton	285	11.7			75
13	Kingsley	333	13.0			88
14	Morley-Stanwood	419	14.0			98

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	1.1
2	9	Caelyn Torry	McBain	2.8
3	9	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	3.1
4	12	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	3.3
5	9	Madisyn Wanstead	Leroy Pine River	5.5
6	12	Megan Gottschall	Lake City	6.9
7	9	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	8.6
8	10	Natalie Rosema	Hart	8.7
9	9	Avalynne Allee	Leroy Pine River	9.4
10	12	Nevia Chimonas	Benzie Central	10.6
11	11	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	10.9
12	10	Lydia Soelberg	Shelby	11.4
13	9	Alaina Schaner	Hart	14.5
14	9	Lilly Whaley	Benzie Central	15.1
15	12	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	16.1
16	10	Kayden Hinton	McBain	16.4
17	12	Audrey Huizinga	Manistee	19.7
18	9	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	19.9
19	10	Maylan Sanders	Mason County Central	20.7
20	10	Betsy Gooden	Manton	21.1
21	9	Faith Helsel	Lake City	21.5
22	11	Elizabeth Ontis	Remus Chippewa Hills	21.9
23	12	Chelsi Eisenga	McBain	22.4
24	12	Clara Smoes	Reed City	23.2
25	9	Madilynn Fancett	McBain	27.1
26	9	Joselyn Flores	Hart	28.3
27	11	Georgia Haag	Manistee	28.3
28	9	Bryn Riley	Hart	28.9
29	10	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City	29.0
30	12	Harriet Kidder	Hart	29.5

Region 21

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Who can make it back between Grandville Calvin Christian and Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian. Calvin Christian had been a mainstay for forever in D3, hitting a bit of a lull these past few years. NorthPointe hasn’t made it to the Finals since 2012. A week ago in the OK Silver Final, the Squires bested the Mustangs by 9 points, largely on the strength of their top-2 girls who hit sub-20’s.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	70	1.3	74	95+	9
2	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	76	1.7	26	95+	10
3	Grandville Calvin Christian	116	3.4		59	19
4	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	122	3.6		41	23
5	Saranac	186	6.0			50
6	Olivet	187	5.6			45
7	Newaygo	199	6.9			52
8	The Potter’s House	215	8.4			60
9	Kent City	220	8.9			62
10	Holland Black River	227	9.2			66
11	Montague	270	11.0			77
12	Delton-Kellogg	302	12.4			83
13	North Muskegon	306	12.6			84
14	Ravenna	362	14.1			95
15	Grant	383	14.8			97

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lila Volkers	Kent City	1.4
2	12	Grace Vanderkooi	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	1.9
3	9	Elliana Max	Kent City	3.0
4	10	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	3.8
5	12	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	6.9
6	10	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo	6.9
7	10	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	7.6
8	12	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	7.7
9	9	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	8.5
10	12	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	9.5
11	11	Emily Peters	Olivet	11.2
12	10	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	13.8
13	10	Marnath Tuol	Grandville Calvin Christian	14.9
14	9	Ellason Foster	Newaygo	15.6
15	10	Anna DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	16.3
16	10	Kaylie Riksen	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	16.6
17	9	Danika Lopez	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	17.4
18	12	Ava Wilson	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	18.5
19	9	Esther Cahill	Saranac	20.2
20	9	Abbie Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	21.7
21	12	Kylie Main	Delton-Kellogg	22.9
22	11	Amber Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.2
23	10	Jenna Terpstra	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	23.7
24	12	Alyssa Possehn	Saranac	24.6
25	10	Ava Langerak	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	26.0
26	11	Sylvia Skujins	North Muskegon	26.6
27	11	Dylan Bosma	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	27.1
28	9	Joellah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	28.3
29	12	Grace Torsch	Montague	28.7
30	10	Faith Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	28.8

Region 22

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Which of the two will make it between Buchanan, Schoolcraft, and Union City? Both Schoolcraft and Buchanan have more depth, though Parker Williams is coming strong for Union City.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saugatuck	64	1.1	90	95+	14
2	Buchanan	79	2.5	7	89	22
3	Schoolcraft	86	3.1		68	29
4	Union City	92	3.5		41	25
5	Kalamazoo Christian	121	4.9			40
6	Niles Brandywine	162	6.2			57
7	Fennville	178	6.9			61
8	Watervliet	216	8.3			76
9	Centreville	243	9.5			82
10	Bangor	245	9.5			79
11	Hartford	276	10.7			91
12	Constantine	348	12.0			96
13	Bloomingdale	405	13.4			100
14	Comstock	405	13.6			101

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	1.0
2	12	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	3.6
3	12	Skyler Fraley	Union City	3.6
4	10	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	4.2
5	12	Madeline Young	Buchanan	4.6
6	11	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck	5.9
7	10	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	6.1
8	10	Allison Gautsche	Union City	7.4
9	12	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	9.2
10	9	Alison Murray	Niles Brandywine	11.8
11	11	Alaina Nagel	Buchanan	13.8
12	9	Olivia Bays	Schoolcraft	14.9
13	12	Alissa Skirka	Union City	15.1
14	9	Avery Mollberg	Buchanan	16.6
15	12	Miley Young	Niles Brandywine	18.3
16	12	Ava Vlietstra	Kalamazoo Christian	18.7
17	12	Christina Mendoza	Fennville	18.7
18	12	Addison Blodgett	Schoolcraft	18.8
19	11	Makynna Williams	Buchanan	20.2
20	9	Alyda Leep	Schoolcraft	21.9
21	12	Kara Kerwin	Kalamazoo Christian	22.7
22	12	Alayah Nieuwsma	Saugatuck	23.1
23	12	Kimberly Romero	Watervliet	23.2
24	10	Emma Schoonmaker	Saugatuck	25.1
25	9	Avery McCrum	Schoolcraft	26.2
26	12	Isabelle Overmyer	Buchanan	26.8
27	12	Samantha Pavlak	Schoolcraft	27.2
28	12	Aubree Murray	Niles Brandywine	27.4
29	10	Parker Williams	Union City	29.1
30	11	Adyson Baker	Buchanan	30.5

Region 23

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three teams separated by eight points, all with somewhat equal chances of making it to another week: Jonesville, Hanover-Horton, and Bronson. The former two have faced off in the Cascades Conference, Hanover-Horton holding serve in the conference final (if their points were counted). The wild card is Bronson, who has two low sticks, an added advantage here.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	40	1.0	95+	95+	6
2	Onsted	94	2.1		95+	21
3	Bronson	125	3.8		36	30
4	Jonesville	128	4.0		43	36
5	Hanover-Horton	133	4.4		21	35
6	Hudson	162	6.6			46
7	Hillsdale	165	6.9			47
8	Quincy	170	7.4			49
9	Napoleon	198	9.1			64
10	Sand Creek	213	9.8			70
11	Homer	281	11.0			90

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Emmry Ross	Onsted	1.1
2	10	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.9
3	12	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	3.5
4	12	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	3.9
5	11	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	5.3
6	9	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	6.4
7	11	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.8
8	12	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	8.2
9	12	Thia Tello	Jackson Lumen Christi	9.4
10	10	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton	12.0
11	10	Kendyl Musielewicz	Quincy	13.3
12	9	Brynleigh Griffiths	Jonesville	13.4
13	10	Helen Lefere	Jackson Lumen Christi	15.5
14	12	Lainey Yearling	Quincy	16.2
15	10	Kiera Knight	Jonesville	16.9
16	11	Annabelle Czeiszperger	Hudson	18.3
17	9	Madalynn Trame	Sand Creek	18.4
18	12	Allie England	Onsted	19.3
19	12	Mia Sanchez	Jackson Lumen Christi	19.8
20	10	Alonna Goodsell	Bronson	20.7
21	11	Raegan Brosamer	Onsted	21.6
22	9	Madisyn Lindemann	Napoleon	22.5
23	12	Jayla Bright	Hudson	23.8
24	12	Jordyn Taylor	Onsted	24.3
25	10	Joleane Gulledge	Jonesville	24.6
26	12	Charlotte Crabbs	Quincy	25.4
27	11	Abby Frederick	Jackson Lumen Christi	25.5
28	11	Makenzy Lindemann	Napoleon	26.2
29	10	Kendahl Drake	Jonesville	27.7
30	10	Izabel Raglow	Onsted	29.8

Region 24

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Another Pewamo-Westphalia and Stanton Central Montcalm matchup. Pretty much the same formula as the boys, though the Hornets may be even more imposing up front. The Pirates can match that with Whitney Werner and Alyssa Kramer. Does the Blue n’ Yellow depth overwhelm or does a girl such as Braelyn Bunting continue her rise? Maybe both as these two squads focus in on podium finishes in the coming weeks.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	36	1.2	83	95+	3
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	40	1.8	17	95+	4
3	Laingsburg	88	3.0		95+	20
4	Bath	111	4.1			33
5	Ovid-Elsie	137	5.2			48
6	Chesaning	146	5.7			56
7	New Lothrop	172	7.0			69
8	Montrose	234	8.0			94

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.0
2	12	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.4
3	10	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	3.0
4	12	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.7
5	11	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	5.0
6	11	Anna Poppema	Bath	6.6
7	9	Madison Wils	Bath	7.4
8	9	Adelyn Thelen	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.0
9	12	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	8.8
10	11	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	10.8
11	11	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	11.8
12	10	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	12.9
13	10	Charlotte Simon	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.0
14	11	Lilly Rooks	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.9
15	10	Delaney Smith	Pewamo-Westphalia	15.3
16	12	Evelyn Logghe	Laingsburg	17.8
17	9	KiKi Rusz	Laingsburg	17.9
18	11	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm	18.2
19	10	Lilli Morrill	Laingsburg	23.2
20	9	Leah Theile	Chesaning	23.3
21	11	Logan Trygstad	Stanton Central Montcalm	23.8
22	9	Kendal Tokar	Ovid-Elsie	24.1
23	12	Lexy Andres	New Lothrop	24.8
24	9	Alonna Schack	Chesaning	25.0
25	10	Samantha Gutzman	Laingsburg	26.1
26	11	Hazel Burley	Laingsburg	27.1
27	12	Makayla Reiber	Chesaning	27.6
28	12	Ally Andres	New Lothrop	28.1
29	12	Addison Rusz	Laingsburg	28.2
30	12	Amelie Bertels	Bath	28.9

Region 25

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Saginaw Valley Lutheran and Sanford-Meridian. Both were able to use the Bluejay Invite as a course preview. Unfortunately for us previewers and prognosticators, the two squads were in separate races. Comparing times, the Mustangs were a bit stronger at the 4^th spot. Which might look to be an advantage, until you consider how well the Chargers ran at the Saginaw County Championship, putting three girls in the top-20 and placing 3^rd.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Ithaca	41	1.0	95+	95+	7
2	Midland Bullock Creek	84	2.0		95+	17
3	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	110	3.4		70	27
4	Sanford-Meridian	115	3.8		28	31
5	St. Louis	131	5.2			37
6	Caro	142	6.1			44
7	Pigeon-Laker	145	6.5			41
8	Sandusky	181	8.0			68
9	Millington	240	9.0			89
10	Cass City	254	10.0			93
11	Pinconning	324	11.0			102
12	Carrollton	347	12.0			105

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	1.3
2	10	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	3.0
3	9	Khloe Lehnst	Ithaca	3.3
4	11	Abigail Reis	Millington	4.2
5	12	Kaya Vrable	Caro	5.3
6	9	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	6.6
7	11	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	7.1
8	10	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	9.3
9	10	Pyper Braun	Pigeon-Laker	9.7
10	9	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	10.4
11	12	Abby Dice	St. Louis	10.4
12	9	Isabelle Strand	Ithaca	12.6
13	12	Maddie Huysentruyt	Sandusky	14.5
14	10	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	14.5
15	12	Autumn Fransen	Midland Bullock Creek	15.2
16	9	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek	19.1
17	11	Alexis Fabbro	Vassar	20.0
18	11	Izabelle LaLone	Ithaca	20.1
19	9	Amelia Dawe	Ithaca	20.5
20	10	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian	20.8
21	9	Olivia Brown	Bad Axe	21.3
22	11	Halle Hoyt	St. Louis	21.5
23	11	Emma Dawe	Ithaca	23.5
24	10	Haley Fitzgibbon	Sanford-Meridian	23.7
25	9	Samantha Skym	Midland Bullock Creek	24.0
26	11	Makenna Gwisdalla	Bad Axe	24.1
27	9	Bethany Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	24.4
28	11	Aubrey Zarnke	Pigeon-Laker	26.7
29	10	Bayleigh Finney	Sanford-Meridian	29.4
30	11	Braylee Rice	Reese	31.3

Region 26

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Lansing Catholic vs. the long bus ride. The Cougars will have plenty of time to stew over traveling across half the state and will likely take out their frustration on the field. They’ve been packed up at the front of races all year, this region seeming to be no different.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Lansing Catholic	24	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Leslie	52	2.0		95+	8
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	91	3.0		95+	24
4	Almont	127	4.0			42
5	Marine City	166	5.5			72
6	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	169	5.7			73
7	Algonac	199	7.7			80
8	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	199	7.7			81
9	Wixom St. Catherine	210	8.6			87
10	Stockbridge	228	9.8			92
11	Detroit Osborn	321	11.0			103

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	1.0
2	9	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	2.1
3	10	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	4.2
4	9	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic	4.3
5	11	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	5.2
6	9	Addison Gregg	Ann Arbor Greenhills	6.6
7	10	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	8.7
8	12	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	9.1
9	10	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic	9.4
10	9	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	10.1
11	9	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie	11.3
12	10	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	12.2
13	11	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy	13.3
14	9	Madisyn Hunter	Leslie	13.5
15	12	Kaitlin Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	15.1
16	11	Laila Evola	Almont	16.4
17	11	Janaan Rehman	Ann Arbor Greenhills	18.3
18	12	Jaidyn Smith	Leslie	18.9
19	9	Taylor Stanczak	Almont	19.0
20	11	Greta Schwarberg	Almont	21.3
21	10	Nina Malani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	23.0
22	10	Aubrey Pilon	Marine City	23.5
23	12	Maddie Szlachta	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	23.7
24	12	Ava Vaccaro	Stockbridge	24.0
25	11	Jasmine Walker	Algonac	24.4
26	12	Kate Bennett	Algonac	25.9
27	12	Elizabeth Ballor	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	28.1
28	10	Emma Reimer	New Haven	28.9
29	9	Violet Massaglia	Marine City	29.3
30	11	JayLee Chapman	Stockbridge	30.5

Region 27

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Eliza Bush vs. the record books. The Oakland bound senior has won twice here and is a strong favorite to make it three in a row. She’s lost only twice this year, hitting her first sub-18 at Stockbridge. To this point, it’s been her best season yet in a career that’s contained 3 All-State finishes.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Blissfield	35	1.0	95+	95+	13
2	Grass Lake	47	2.0		95+	18
3	Monroe St. Mary CC	70	3.0		95+	32
4	Erie Mason	91	4.0			43
5	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	118	5.0			63
6	Ida	147	6.0			85
7	Detroit Cristo Rey	220	7.0			104

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	1.0
2	11	Hope Miller	Blissfield	2.2
3	11	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	2.8
4	11	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	5.5
5	12	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock	5.7
6	9	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake	5.8
7	9	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	6.2
8	10	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	9.0
9	12	Mia Schroeder	Monroe Jefferson	9.1
10	10	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield	11.5
11	11	Julia Hughes	Ida	13.1
12	12	Autumn Pernell	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	13.3
13	9	Ella Claus	Clinton	14.7
14	12	Grace Bullock	Grass Lake	15.0
15	12	Kim Miller	Monroe Jefferson	15.6
16	12	Elizabeth Lambert	Erie Mason	15.8
17	10	Makenzie Hilberer	Grass Lake	17.4
18	12	Alaina McClain	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	17.6
19	10	Adeline Stormont	Grass Lake	17.6
20	10	Elise Bullock	Grass Lake	18.1
21	10	Juleigh Husby	Monroe St. Mary CC	19.9
22	12	Claire Lisker	Monroe St. Mary CC	19.9
23	12	Bailey Meiring	Erie Mason	24.4
24	9	Kate Otting	Erie Mason	24.7
25	11	Leona Knudsen	Monroe St. Mary CC	24.7
26	11	Natalie Benitez	Blissfield	26.3
27	10	Braelynn Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	27.2
28	11	Taylor Hoppe	Grass Lake	30.7
29	9	Jaelynn Horton	Erie Mason	31.1
30	11	Riley England	Erie Mason	31.2

Region 19

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Individual

Region 20

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Region 21

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Region 22

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Region 23

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Region 24

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Region 25

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Region 26

Team

Individual

Region 27

Team

Individual

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