2024 Regional Projections: Division 1 Boys

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 1

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Grandville vs. the unexpected. Up front, the Livermore tandem is reliable. The OK Red Championship showed that the Bulldogs can go even deeper – all five scorers under 17:05. The team for them to catch is Rockford, who were able to all fall in under 17-flat. A closer gap between the two later in the race may lead to a Grandville upset.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Jenison	39	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	Grand Haven	60	2.0		95+	8
3	Rockford	93	3.1		93	23
4	Grandville	111	4.0		7	29
5	Holland West Ottawa	139	5.5			42
6	Zeeland West	142	5.9			43
7	Hudsonville	152	6.5			50
8	Grand Rapids Northview	246	8.1			83
9	Greenville	262	8.9			88
10	Grand Rapids Union	321	10.1			105
11	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	334	11.1			108
12	Muskegon Mona Shores	343	11.8			112
13	Wyoming	374	13.0			118
14	Muskegon	460	14.0			135

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Carter Livermore	Grandville	1.4
2	12	Seth Conner	Jenison	1.8
3	10	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	3.7
4	10	Caden Livermore	Grandville	4.2
5	12	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	5.0
6	11	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	6.8
7	12	Parker Strelecki	Jenison	6.8
8	12	Mason Lucas	Jenison	7.5
9	12	Matthew Schwartz	Jenison	8.5
10	12	Noah Schuette	Rockford	10.6
11	11	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	13.0
12	11	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	13.4
13	11	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	13.5
14	11	Preston VanOeffelen	Greenville	14.8
15	11	Nolan Wenglikowski	Jenison	15.1
16	10	Bradley Smies	Hudsonville	15.8
17	11	Hayden Lafferty	Rockford	16.3
18	10	Josiah Derksen	Rockford	16.9
19	12	Carson Berko	Grand Haven	18.8
20	12	Levi Jongekryg	Holland West Ottawa	20.3
21	12	Dominic Otto	Jenison	21.0
22	12	Nathan Loser	Rockford	22.2
23	9	Chase Sherman	Jenison	25.0
24	11	Kasen Todtz	Grand Haven	27.0
25	11	Jake Follett	Holland West Ottawa	27.2
26	10	Aaron Ebels	Grandville	29.4
27	12	Caden Karcher	Rockford	29.5
28	12	Dylan Pfeffer	Hudsonville	30.7
29	12	Aidan Ohanyan	Hudsonville	30.7
30	11	Michael Dummer	Holland West Ottawa	31.0

Region 2

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Midland vs. Traverse City West for a qualifying spot. All year, the Chemics have been a welcome surprise, winning early at Northwood and the SVL Championship meet, racing with the big boys at Holly. Traverse City West travels south, hoping to spoil that year-round party. During last week’s Big North Championship, the Titans used the quick Cadillac course to attain PRs from four of their five scorers, nearly knocking off Traverse City Central in the process.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Traverse City Central	65	1.2	82	95+	10
2	Okemos	85	2.2	16	93	20
3	Midland	93	2.8		88	21
4	Traverse City West	108	3.8		19	25
5	Grand Ledge	139	5.2			32
6	Saginaw Heritage	152	5.8			40
7	H.H. Dow	184	7.0			51
8	Alpena	223	8.6			58
9	Bay City Western	225	8.7			61
10	Mt. Pleasant	249	9.9			65
11	East Lansing	274	10.9			71
12	Holt	302	11.9			81
13	Lansing Everett	432	13.2			119
14	Bay City Central	437	13.8			120

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ian Morgan	Okemos	1.8
2	11	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	2.7
3	10	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	4.6
4	11	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	4.9
5	11	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	5.5
6	11	Jack Steen	Traverse City Central	6.6
7	9	Alexander Allen	Alpena	7.6
8	12	Ian Boss	Traverse City Central	7.8
9	11	Andrew Worsley	Midland	10.1
10	12	Logan Gehoski	Bay City Western	10.6
11	10	Cameron Cochran	Midland	12.1
12	11	Logan Bellinger	Midland	12.7
13	12	Nathan Beemer	Okemos	15.0
14	11	Hayden Murray	Traverse City West	18.0
15	12	Andrew Kaczmarczyk	Bay City Western	18.3
16	12	Lawrence Cubitt	Traverse City Central	18.8
17	11	Liam Preisser	East Lansing	19.0
18	11	Aidan Simrau	Traverse City West	19.8
19	12	Sam Scott	H.H. Dow	20.1
20	12	Leyton Minuth	H.H. Dow	21.1
21	9	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge	22.7
22	10	Matthew Wortley	Saginaw Heritage	23.4
23	12	Nathan Wilkinson	Okemos	24.9
24	12	Spencer Porritt	Midland	25.8
25	12	Finley Markle	Okemos	26.7
26	10	Simon Shutt	Okemos	27.1
27	11	Malcolm Cesario	Okemos	27.3
28	9	Finn-Frost Grayson	Traverse City West	27.6
29	11	David Fiore	Saginaw Heritage	28.7
30	12	Andy Castro	H.H. Dow	29.2

Region 3

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Five teams with a real shot of qualifying, three squads with legitimate chances of winning. Samuel Baker’s return has given Kalamazoo Central a major jab in the arm. Filtering for Region 3 teams at both Portage and the SMAC Championship results in a Giant wreck over the competition. Last week, this was all five scorers under 16:15.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Kalamazoo Central	83	1.6	67	88	7
2	East Kentwood	99	2.6	14	78	13
3	Forest Hills Central	99	2.6	13	81	11
4	Portage Central	105	3.4		48	12
5	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	151	5.7		5	30
6	Caledonia	152	5.7			28
7	Lowell	181	7.3			36
8	Forest Hills Northern	183	7.4			35
9	Battle Creek Lakeview	215	8.9			45
10	Byron Center	243	10.0			52
11	Mattawan	274	11.6			63
12	Portage Northern	279	11.8			56
13	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	294	12.6			68

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	1.4
2	10	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	4.4
3	12	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	5.3
4	12	Kort Thompson	Caledonia	6.5
5	10	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	6.8
6	12	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	7.4
7	12	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	7.9
8	12	Spencer Parker	Portage Central	8.1
9	12	Mitchell Jeruzal	Byron Center	8.6
10	11	Cooper Byrne	Lowell	11.4
11	10	Marshall Huhn	Lowell	12.3
12	10	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood	13.0
13	12	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	13.5
14	12	Spencer Porter	Forest Hills Northern	14.7
15	11	Owen Fisher	Mattawan	15.0
16	11	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	16.6
17	11	Nicolas Morales – Sanchez	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	18.1
18	10	Tristan Zhang	Portage Central	19.4
19	11	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	19.7
20	12	Jacob Sanford	Forest Hills Central	20.3
21	9	Marcus Essling	Portage Central	22.1
22	10	Memphis Connor	Byron Center	22.1
23	10	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood	22.8
24	12	Jonah Bills	Battle Creek Lakeview	26.7
25	11	Owen Gifford	Portage Central	27.1
26	11	Logan Westgate	Portage Central	28.1
27	11	Elijah Thompson	Kalamazoo Central	28.6
28	11	Marcel Stork	Mattawan	28.9
29	11	Noah Johnston	Caledonia	29.6
30	11	Nicolas MoralesSan	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	31.2

Region 4

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Howell vs. Ann Arbor Skyline. The top-two spots should go to Brighton, a MIS podium contender and Dexter, an unheralded and reliable team. But Howell has been racing aggressively of late, moving up in the regional rankings thanks to prime performances from David DeLand and Alex Weller. On the other hand, Ann Arbor Skyline comes off an SEC Championship where 30 seconds separated their 1^st and 5^th runners. That sorta pack running can come in handy in a pressure-filled environment.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Brighton	34	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Dexter	100	2.4		95	27
3	Howell	104	2.8		89	26
4	Ann Arbor Skyline	129	4.1		13	41
5	Davison	152	4.9			46
6	Holly	189	6.6			54
7	Grand Blanc	195	6.9			59
8	Hartland	206	7.6			62
9	Flushing	227	9.1			66
10	Fenton	240	9.7			69
11	Lapeer	276	11.0			82
12	Swartz Creek	317	12.1			91
13	Jackson	336	12.9			100

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jack MacGregor	Howell	1.1
2	12	Tyler Brock	Brighton	2.2
3	12	Julian Linebaugh	Dexter	4.3
4	12	James Latstetter	Flushing	5.5
5	10	Blake Kulesza	Brighton	7.0
6	12	Lucas Wood	Howell	7.2
7	12	Jacob Essenmacher	Lapeer	7.5
8	12	Tyler Outlaw	Brighton	8.3
9	12	Brady Millington	Brighton	8.6
10	11	Zach Wyderko	Brighton	8.7
11	9	Gavin Katic	Fenton	9.3
12	12	Caleb Snyder	Dexter	10.1
13	12	Drake Wallace	Howell	15.1
14	12	Elijah Forbord	Brighton	15.6
15	10	Broden Ladd	Holly	15.8
16	11	Mitchell Cory	Brighton	16.8
17	12	Maxwell Merrill	Grand Blanc	20.9
18	12	Luke Meyer	Davison	21.9
19	10	Coen Hill	Dexter	22.0
20	10	Nicholas Yuan	Ann Arbor Skyline	22.6
21	11	Bruno Cifaldi	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.1
22	11	Noah Linstrom	Davison	24.2
23	11	Braden Shiposh	Hartland	24.6
24	10	Matthew Guikema	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.9
25	10	Trevor Murphy	Holly	25.2
26	12	Landon Whitehead	Dexter	28.0
27	9	Gerard Gilmour	Fenton	28.0
28	11	Jonny Striler	Swartz Creek	29.3
29	10	Levi Mayer	Davison	29.4
30	9	Oskar MacArthur	Ann Arbor Skyline	29.9

Region 5

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Seems… undramatic? Region 5 has always been a story of Saline + Ann Arbor Pioneer, then someone else. That someone else looks to be Temperance Bedford, who placed 4^th in the final SEC Red jamboree. The Mules provide a few frontrunners and then a pack that can work together in the middle of the race.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saline	36	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	51	2.0		95+	16
3	Temperance Bedford	84	3.0		95+	33
4	Brownstown Woodhaven	105	4.0			47
5	Monroe	136	5.0			57
6	Allen Park	210	6.4			90
7	Dearborn	218	6.9			89
8	Gibraltar Carlson	249	8.1			102
9	Wyandotte Roosevelt	265	8.8			106
10	Dearborn Edsel Ford	305	10.3			116
11	Dearborn Fordson	320	11.0			110
12	Southgate Anderson	337	11.9			117
13	Ypsilanti Lincoln	369	13.6			121
14	Detroit Cass Tech	369	13.6			124
15	Belleville	389	14.6			123
16	Lincoln Park	460	16.0			129
17	Detroit Martin Luther King	553	17.4			136
18	Taylor	555	17.6			137

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	11	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.0
3	10	Jacob Szalay	Saline	4.2
4	11	Brennan LaRusso	Saline	4.9
5	11	Pierce Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	6.9
6	9	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson	7.0
7	12	Saman Meshinchi	Saline	8.1
8	11	Theo Sacks-Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer	8.6
9	10	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	8.7
10	11	Dane Hieronimus	Temperance Bedford	10.5
11	9	Wesley Rogan	Saline	10.6
12	12	Collin Eckermann	Saline	10.7
13	10	John (Jack) Klein	Saline	12.5
14	10	Carlos Basulto	Saline	13.6
15	12	Myles Bray	Monroe	14.9
16	11	Alex Vazquez	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.3
17	11	Quinn Davis	Ann Arbor Pioneer	19.0
18	12	Nicholas (Nick) Balla	Temperance Bedford	19.9
19	10	Vincent Jones	Brownstown Woodhaven	20.9
20	12	Jordan Bunce	Temperance Bedford	21.0
21	11	Parker Bomia-Laberdee	Monroe	21.2
22	11	Thomas DeJesus	Ann Arbor Pioneer	22.1
23	10	Walker Ledbetter	Ann Arbor Pioneer	23.0
24	11	Jason Anderson	Dearborn	26.4
25	10	Logan Thomas	Temperance Bedford	27.0
26	10	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt	27.3
27	11	Joshua Riggs	Monroe	29.7
28	12	Maceo Colon	Temperance Bedford	30.4
29	12	Aidan Ortiz	Temperance Bedford	30.5
30	10	Calen Alexander	Brownstown Woodhaven	30.6

Region 6

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Canton vs. the question marks. At the end of September, the Cobras were in the MIS podium conversation. A month later and they’ve had some absences from their team. In spite of those missing, they’ve placed 3^rd in Wayne County and 5^th in the KLAA. With or without runners, Plymouth would be right in the conversation for advancing. I bet if I tracked improvement within a season (and between seasons), the Wildcats would be in contention for the most improved in the state. They find themselves here in the top-10 in the state and seemingly still growing.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Northville	26	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Livonia Churchill	70	2.1		95+	5
3	Plymouth	82	3.2		72	9
4	Canton	88	3.7		29	14
5	Salem	118	5.0			24
6	Ann Arbor Huron	162	6.0			44
7	Livonia Stevenson	240	7.3			73
8	Farmington	251	8.0			79
9	Detroit U-D Jesuit	261	8.7			87
10	Detroit Renaissance	318	10.3			103
11	Livonia Franklin	334	11.6			113
12	Westland John Glenn	341	12.0			109
13	Wayne Memorial	341	12.0			111
14	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	442	14.1			128
15	Ferndale	458	14.9			130
16	Detroit Mumford	510	16.0			138

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	1.0
2	12	Ethan Powell	Northville	2.2
3	12	Joseph Rohmfeld	Livonia Churchill	3.2
4	11	Ben Hartigan	Northville	3.8
5	10	Brandon Cloud	Northville	6.6
6	12	Nick Barretto	Northville	6.7
7	12	Ishaan Kundapur	Northville	6.8
8	12	Chase Wolters	Livonia Churchill	8.1
9	11	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth	10.5
10	12	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	10.6
11	12	Ben Mussen	Plymouth	11.9
12	12	Malcolm Speigle	Livonia Churchill	12.8
13	11	Steven Dusseau	Canton	13.4
14	11	Ethan Hertza	Northville	13.7
15	12	Walker Brose	Ann Arbor Huron	16.8
16	10	Jack Hanner	Salem	17.1
17	11	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth	17.5
18	11	Ryan Stojov	Northville	18.2
19	12	Ben Clark	Canton	19.1
20	10	Austin Mercado	Salem	20.5
21	12	Adam Dicken	Canton	20.8
22	12	Isaac Demetter	Salem	22.3
23	11	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill	22.7
24	12	Jonah Kraft	Ann Arbor Huron	23.6
25	12	Benjamin Peura	Farmington	23.7
26	12	Ethan Morche	Livonia Churchill	23.9
27	12	Aaron Messing	Livonia Stevenson	28.5
28	12	Teo Condevaux	Livonia Churchill	29.8
29	11	Max Frentner	Salem	30.7
30	11	Daniel Niehaus	Plymouth	31.2

Region 7

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

True proximity in these rivalries. White Lake Lakeland and Highland-Milford are LVC foes. This year’s iteration of the LVC was won by Lakeland, winning both their dual and the championship meet, where the Eagles were able to dot the top-seven with four of their athletes. Close in the mid-season, even closer now, Novi has snuck by Detroit Catholic Central in the projections.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	White Lake Lakeland	51	1.4	60	95+	17
2	Highland-Milford	55	1.6	40	95+	18
3	Novi	100	3.5		53	39
4	Detroit Catholic Central	102	3.5		47	34
5	Walled Lake Northern	134	5.0			49
6	Royal Oak	165	5.9			55
7	South Lyon	213	7.1			70
8	South Lyon East	238	8.0			75
9	Beverly Hills Groves	267	8.9			86
10	West Bloomfield	301	10.0			92
11	Birmingham Seaholm	342	11.4			101
12	Brother Rice	347	11.8			97
13	Berkley	369	13.1			104
14	North Farmington	381	13.9			107
15	Walled Lake Western	422	15.2			115
16	Walled Lake Central	443	15.5			122

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	1.0
2	12	Drew Abbott	Detroit Catholic Central	2.4
3	11	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland	5.2
4	12	Matthew Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	5.4
5	11	Bastien Beaubien	Highland-Milford	6.2
6	10	Trevor Baptist	Novi	8.1
7	9	Todd Tobin	Highland-Milford	9.9
8	12	Nolan Till	Royal Oak	9.9
9	10	Musa Kay	West Bloomfield	10.0
10	12	Ayden McDonald	White Lake Lakeland	11.0
11	11	Soma Sato	Novi	11.6
12	11	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern	12.2
13	11	Nolan Collins	Brother Rice	12.5
14	12	Jacob Kosidlo	White Lake Lakeland	13.8
15	12	Chase Griffith	Walled Lake Northern	15.3
16	10	Briggs Warren	Novi	17.2
17	11	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central	18.0
18	12	Michael Nivala	White Lake Lakeland	18.6
19	12	Thomas Watson	Detroit Catholic Central	19.3
20	10	Josh Sanchez	Highland-Milford	21.7
21	11	Dylan Doggett	Highland-Milford	22.6
22	11	Isaac German	Novi	24.2
23	11	Brenden Humitz	White Lake Lakeland	24.9
24	10	Nathan Bruss	Walled Lake Northern	25.0
25	11	Aiden LaVictor	Beverly Hills Groves	26.1
26	12	Ryan Carrannanto	Highland-Milford	26.1
27	12	Liam Wyman	South Lyon	26.4
28	9	Nikhil Ball	South Lyon East	27.4
29	12	Evan Kelly	Highland-Milford	28.2
30	12	Jacob Mack	South Lyon East	29.7

Region 8

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Troy and Rochester going at it for the final spot. Ranked right near each other in the state standings, separated a bit with regard to the region. Troy finds a major advantage by having six boys that could contend for four scoring spots, insurance in the case of a poor race. I wouldn’t discount the Falcons though, as they’re coming off an OAA White victory and they showed the ability in track to show up on regional day.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Clarkston	54	1.1	89	95+	6
2	Oxford	67	1.9	11	95+	15
3	Troy	103	3.1		87	38
4	Rochester	115	3.9		13	37
5	Lake Orion	143	5.1			48
6	Troy Athens	162	5.9			53
7	Utica Ford	229	7.7			72
8	Rochester Adams	234	8.0			77
9	Sterling Heights Stevenson	252	9.6			80
10	Bloomfield Hills	254	9.6			76
11	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	260	10.2			85
12	Warren Cousino	304	12.0			94
13	Waterford Kettering	382	13.0			114
14	Waterford Mott	439	14.1			125
15	Warren Mott	466	14.9			126
16	Auburn Hills Avondale	501	16.2			131
17	Sterling Heights	509	16.9			133

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Alex McArthur	Oxford	1.7
2	12	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	2.3
3	12	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	3.2
4	11	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	4.6
5	12	James Cusick	Oxford	4.7
6	12	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston	6.1
7	11	Nate Linden	Troy Athens	8.5
8	11	Max Houvener	Lake Orion	8.8
9	12	Collin McLaughlin	Rochester	10.0
10	12	Maxton Myrand	Oxford	11.1
11	11	David Dubeck	Clarkston	11.3
12	11	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester	11.5
13	12	Jaxson Nowik	Clarkston	11.5
14	11	Evan Owczarek	Rochester	11.6
15	12	Raymond Lucero II	Lake Orion	15.6
16	12	Myles Linden	Troy Athens	16.0
17	12	Aiden Baugh	Waterford Kettering	18.0
18	12	Akshat Arora	Troy	19.8
19	9	Cooper McNaughton	Clarkston	20.9
20	11	Cayden Canham	Oxford	22.3
21	11	Aaron Hemstreet	Warren Cousino	22.9
22	12	John Lonsway	Sterling Heights Stevenson	23.0
23	12	Jack Tultz	Clarkston	24.5
24	12	Kent Wilson	Clarkston	25.1
25	11	Isaac Clark	Troy	26.1
26	12	Braden Cinato	Warren Cousino	28.5
27	10	Zach Shaffer	Utica Ford	28.9
28	9	Ricardo Guajardo	Lake Orion	29.5
29	12	Jack Dysarz	Oxford	29.6
30	10	Henry Witt	Troy	30.5
31	12	Austin Xiao	Troy	31.7

Region 9

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Utica, hoping to repeat the feat from two weeks back. At Eastwood in mid-October, spurred by a dominant top-two, the Chieftains were able to capture the County crown. With two weeks to celebrate and bask in the glory of their accomplishment, they could benefit from the gained confidence. On the other hand, a Romeo or Macomb Dakota may have spent these past two weeks stewing and concocting a strategy to pull an upset.  

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Utica	59	1.4	68	95+	19
2	Macomb Dakota	65	1.9	29	95+	22
3	Romeo	81	2.8		95+	31
4	Grosse Pointe South	167	4.5			60
5	Utica Eisenhower	178	5.3			64
6	Fraser	180	5.3			67
7	Anchor Bay	222	7.7			74
8	Warren DeLaSalle	222	7.9			78
9	Grosse Pointe North	231	8.3			84
10	L’Anse Creuse North	273	10.6			95
11	L’Anse Creuse	287	11.6			93
12	Chippewa Valley	292	12.0			96
13	Port Huron Northern	300	12.8			99
14	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	301	13.0			98
15	Roseville	467	15.0			127
16	Warren Woods Tower	515	16.2			132
17	Detroit East English	527	16.8			134

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Harper Wesley	Utica	1.8
2	12	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	1.8
3	12	Luke Morehouse	Utica	2.8
4	11	James Brickel	Romeo	6.1
5	12	Gavin Frandle	Utica	8.7
6	11	Owen Perry	Romeo	9.1
7	12	Jack Martin	Grosse Pointe South	9.3
8	11	Luke Allen	Romeo	10.9
9	11	Lance Edghill	Fraser	12.2
10	12	Aidan Daly	L’Anse Creuse	12.5
11	11	Charlie Curtis	Utica	13.1
12	11	Anthony Frei	Utica Eisenhower	13.2
13	12	Jensen McCutcheon	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	13.9
14	11	Joseph Kaleto	Macomb Dakota	14.5
15	11	Andrew Scheloske	Macomb Dakota	15.1
16	12	Greg Vogt	Anchor Bay	15.3
17	11	Oliver Davis	Macomb Dakota	15.8
18	11	Aaron Osterman	Anchor Bay	17.7
19	12	Colden Gray	Utica Eisenhower	19.2
20	9	Xavier Solgot	L’Anse Creuse North	19.8
21	12	Noah Redman	Macomb Dakota	21.3
22	11	Jacob Giovannini	Macomb Dakota	22.2
23	12	Alex Habarth	L’Anse Creuse	23.0
24	12	Tethyan McKenzie	Grosse Pointe South	23.2
25	12	Caleb Kosel	Grosse Pointe North	26.3
26	11	Nathan Kafoury	Warren DeLaSalle	27.3
27	11	Malcolm Richardson	Warren DeLaSalle	28.0
28	11	Eric DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	28.9
29	10	Carson Hlavin	Romeo	29.7
30	12	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota	29.8