Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.
Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
| Tanner Time | Tanner Rating | Tanner Avg. | Tanner StDev. |
| 15:30 | 210 | ||
| 15:45 | 205 | ||
| 16:00 | 200 | ||
| 16:15 | 195 | ||
| 16:30 | 190 | 200 | 7.91 |
| MIXCSR Time | MIXCSR Rating | MIXCSR Avg. | MIXCSR StDev. |
| 16:09 | 197 | ||
| 16:12 | 196 | ||
| 16:15 | 195 | ||
| 16:18 | 194 | ||
| 16:21 | 193 | 195 | 1.58 |
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
| Race | Tanner Avg. | Tanner StDev | Tanner Rating | MIXCSR Avg. | MIXCSR StDev | MIXCSR Rating |
| 1 | 200 | 7.9 | 202.1 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.6 |
| 2 | 200 | 7.9 | 196.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.1 |
| 3 | 200 | 7.9 | 190.0 | 195 | 1.6 | 199.2 |
| 4 | 200 | 7.9 | 193.4 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.5 |
| 5 | 200 | 7.9 | 206.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.7 |
| 6 | 200 | 7.9 | 201.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.1 |
| 7 | 200 | 7.9 | 171.6 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.9 |
| 8 | 200 | 7.9 | 189.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.9 |
| 9 | 200 | 7.9 | 205.5 | 195 | 1.6 | 197.0 |
| 10 | 200 | 7.9 | 203.8 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.6 |
| 11 | 200 | 7.9 | 192.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.5 |
| 12 | 200 | 7.9 | 196.9 | 195 | 1.6 | 196.4 |
| 13 | 200 | 7.9 | 198.5 | 195 | 1.6 | 195.6 |
| 14 | 200 | 7.9 | 203.2 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.1 |
| 15 | 200 | 7.9 | 193.9 | 195 | 1.6 | 192.6 |
| 16 | 200 | 7.9 | 199.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 193.2 |
| 17 | 200 | 7.9 | 208.7 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.2 |
| 18 | 200 | 7.9 | 213.7 | 195 | 1.6 | 194.6 |
| 19 | 200 | 7.9 | 212.6 | 195 | 1.6 | 197.1 |
| 20 | 200 | 7.9 | 206.3 | 195 | 1.6 | 193.9 |
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.
Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!
Region 10
What’s the Battle?
The venerable Spring Lake girls vs. a late-rising Ludington. The Orioles are a bit faster up front, Annabelle Lowman and Nadia Grierson both showing the capability of running in the low-19’s or faster. The Laker strength is in the middle of their lineup. During last week’s OK Black Championship, Spring Lake was able to place six girls under 20:35.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Spring Lake | 79 | 1.5 | 57 | 95+ | 11 |
| 2 | Ludington | 82 | 1.7 | 42 | 95+ | 13 |
| 3 | Cadillac | 98 | 2.9 | 95+ | 15 | |
| 4 | Cedar Springs | 146 | 4.8 | 33 | ||
| 5 | Petoskey | 153 | 5.2 | 39 | ||
| 6 | Fruitport | 157 | 5.5 | 38 | ||
| 7 | Fremont | 185 | 7.7 | 50 | ||
| 8 | Gladwin | 185 | 7.7 | 49 | ||
| 9 | Whitehall | 197 | 8.7 | 55 | ||
| 10 | Gaylord | 211 | 9.5 | 58 | ||
| 11 | Sparta | 242 | 10.8 | 80 | ||
| 12 | Howard City Tri-County | 312 | 12.0 | 91 | ||
| 13 | Big Rapids | 381 | 13.0 | 104 | ||
| 14 | Ogemaw Heights | 458 | 14.0 | 115 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Katie Berkshire | Gaylord | 1.0 |
| 2 | 10 | Mia May | Sparta | 2.6 |
| 3 | 10 | Annabelle Lowman | Ludington | 3.2 |
| 4 | 11 | Brooklynn Brown | Cadillac | 4.3 |
| 5 | 12 | Nadia Grierson | Ludington | 5.2 |
| 6 | 11 | Alexis Kotkowicz | Spring Lake | 6.6 |
| 7 | 10 | Ella McInerney | Cadillac | 7.3 |
| 8 | 11 | Linnea Paige | Fremont | 7.6 |
| 9 | 12 | Abby Robinson | Gladwin | 8.8 |
| 10 | 9 | Kaleigh Clark | Spring Lake | 10.2 |
| 11 | 12 | Camille (Cami) Kraai | Whitehall | 11.3 |
| 12 | 11 | Ava Pawlick | Petoskey | 12.5 |
| 13 | 9 | Chloe Mazza | Cadillac | 14.1 |
| 14 | 10 | Abby Noorman | Cedar Springs | 16.7 |
| 15 | 12 | Valerie Pollock | Fruitport | 16.7 |
| 16 | 12 | Lillian Binger | Gladwin | 17.0 |
| 17 | 12 | Adalyn Britton | Whitehall | 18.1 |
| 18 | 9 | Addy Nesbitt | Cedar Springs | 18.9 |
| 19 | 10 | Cora Parker | Spring Lake | 20.3 |
| 20 | 11 | Meghan Guczwa | Spring Lake | 20.7 |
| 21 | 12 | Summer Brower | Ludington | 22.5 |
| 22 | 12 | Lexie Ruffing | Spring Lake | 23.9 |
| 23 | 9 | Peyhton Beardsley | Fruitport | 23.9 |
| 24 | 12 | Autumn Brower | Ludington | 25.2 |
| 25 | 12 | Bethany Zimmerman | Spring Lake | 25.8 |
| 26 | 12 | Fiona Scott | Petoskey | 26.8 |
| 27 | 11 | Elisabeth Pauls | Petoskey | 30.6 |
| 28 | 9 | Briella Kohley | Spring Lake | 30.7 |
| 29 | 10 | Allison Brandt | Ludington | 30.8 |
| 30 | 10 | Kendall Nester | Cedar Springs | 30.9 |
Region 11
What’s the Battle?
Really nothing? The projected top three squads are all so strong that they *shouldn’t* be challenged. Now, watch there be an upset.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Zeeland East | 27 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 1 |
| 2 | Holland Christian | 48 | 2.0 | 95+ | 6 | |
| 3 | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 66 | 3.0 | 95+ | 10 | |
| 4 | Coopersville | 113 | 4.0 | 21 | ||
| 5 | Holland | 194 | 5.9 | 62 | ||
| 6 | Grand Rapids Catholic Central | 196 | 6.1 | 59 | ||
| 7 | Hopkins | 198 | 6.6 | 67 | ||
| 8 | Allendale | 222 | 8.3 | 81 | ||
| 9 | Grand Rapids West Catholic | 223 | 8.6 | 75 | ||
| 10 | Hamilton | 234 | 9.5 | 82 | ||
| 11 | Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills | 343 | 11.0 | 103 | ||
| 12 | Grand River Preparatory | 377 | 12.1 | 108 | ||
| 13 | Comstock Park | 394 | 13.2 | 111 | ||
| 14 | Wyoming Lee | 404 | 13.7 | 114 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Emma Drnek | Zeeland East | 1.0 |
| 2 | 9 | Adalyn Raab | Zeeland East | 2.6 |
| 3 | 11 | Marie Gates | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 3.2 |
| 4 | 9 | Avery Engbers | Holland Christian | 4.0 |
| 5 | 11 | Meredith Cook | Zeeland East | 4.4 |
| 6 | 9 | Oakley Osterhart | Coopersville | 6.7 |
| 7 | 10 | Ellery Lampen | Holland Christian | 6.7 |
| 8 | 11 | Taryn DiLaura | Zeeland East | 9.1 |
| 9 | 11 | Megan Kuzma | Zeeland East | 9.8 |
| 10 | 12 | Sierra Grooters | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 10.3 |
| 11 | 11 | Layla Geurink | Holland Christian | 10.3 |
| 12 | 10 | Mackenzie Huizenga | Holland Christian | 12.8 |
| 13 | 9 | Lexi Gibson | Holland | 14.0 |
| 14 | 9 | Annika Stob | Holland Christian | 14.3 |
| 15 | 12 | Grace Mckinney | Grand Rapids Catholic Central | 16.0 |
| 16 | 12 | Maddie Bruxvoort | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 16.4 |
| 17 | 11 | Sadie Schout | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 16.7 |
| 18 | 9 | Addison Bixler | Coopersville | 17.3 |
| 19 | 11 | Olivia Droski | Coopersville | 21.5 |
| 20 | 10 | Carly Bruxvoort | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 22.2 |
| 21 | 12 | Maya VanSolkema | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 23.2 |
| 22 | 9 | Ava Knot | Holland Christian | 23.5 |
| 23 | 9 | Sophie Jones | Holland Christian | 25.3 |
| 24 | 12 | Kambria Moored | Hopkins | 27.1 |
| 25 | 11 | Allison Breining | Hopkins | 27.3 |
| 26 | 10 | Noelle Wielhouwer | Hudsonville Unity Christian | 27.4 |
| 27 | 11 | Emily Graves | Zeeland East | 28.3 |
| 28 | 12 | Ellie Francis | Allendale | 28.7 |
| 29 | SR | Ambria Depoy | Holland | 28.8 |
| 30 | 12 | Katherine Ptak | Grand Rapids Catholic Central | 29.9 |
Region 12
What’s the Battle?
Can the home course advantage play in the favor of the Sailors? Every year Grand Rapids South Christian seemingly qualifies a team as an underdog. They’re definitely peaking at the right time, eight days off dominating the OK Gold Championship. Forest Hills Eastern will be a tough out, well-coached and battle-tested.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Grand Rapids Christian | 37 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 3 |
| 2 | East Grand Rapids | 66 | 2.0 | 95+ | 7 | |
| 3 | Forest Hills Eastern | 98 | 3.2 | 83 | 12 | |
| 4 | Grand Rapids South Christian | 111 | 3.8 | 17 | 14 | |
| 5 | Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg | 169 | 5.8 | 28 | ||
| 6 | Richland Gull Lake | 171 | 6.0 | 35 | ||
| 7 | Plainwell | 175 | 6.2 | 29 | ||
| 8 | GR West Michigan Aviation | 241 | 8.4 | 64 | ||
| 9 | Portland | 247 | 8.7 | 60 | ||
| 10 | Belding | 279 | 10.0 | 79 | ||
| 11 | Battle Creek Pennfield | 320 | 11.3 | 90 | ||
| 12 | Hastings | 342 | 12.2 | 96 | ||
| 13 | Ionia | 357 | 13.1 | 95 | ||
| 14 | Wayland Union | 370 | 13.4 | 101 | ||
| 15 | Lake Odessa Lakewood | 435 | 15.0 | 110 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Ellie Scholma | Grand Rapids Christian | 1.9 |
| 2 | 10 | Adeline Armstrong | East Grand Rapids | 2.3 |
| 3 | 10 | Lane Isom | Richland Gull Lake | 3.6 |
| 4 | 11 | Lilah Poel | Grand Rapids Christian | 4.0 |
| 5 | 12 | Ava Crews | Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg | 5.2 |
| 6 | 12 | Sadey Seyferth | East Grand Rapids | 6.6 |
| 7 | 11 | Annika TerBeek | Grand Rapids Christian | 8.0 |
| 8 | 10 | Zoe Hoekstra | Grand Rapids Christian | 9.5 |
| 9 | 11 | Chloe Rinzema | Grand Rapids South Christian | 10.5 |
| 10 | 11 | Jillian Clason | Forest Hills Eastern | 11.5 |
| 11 | 9 | Tiffany DeMaagd | Grand Rapids South Christian | 13.3 |
| 12 | 10 | Lucy Waalkes | Grand Rapids Christian | 13.8 |
| 13 | 11 | Madelyn Baar | East Grand Rapids | 15.5 |
| 14 | 10 | Ahna Woltjer | GR West Michigan Aviation | 15.8 |
| 15 | 10 | Sofia Lewis | GR West Michigan Aviation | 16.4 |
| 16 | 10 | Caroline Randall | Hastings | 18.3 |
| 17 | 12 | Marlina Howell | Forest Hills Eastern | 18.3 |
| 18 | 11 | Rory Workman | East Grand Rapids | 18.5 |
| 19 | 12 | Claire Vos | Plainwell | 18.8 |
| 20 | 10 | Ainsley Sullivan | Forest Hills Eastern | 19.6 |
| 21 | 9 | Lydia Visker | Grand Rapids Christian | 21.5 |
| 22 | 12 | Avery Wezensky | Portland | 22.4 |
| 23 | 9 | Lily Phillips | Forest Hills Eastern | 22.9 |
| 24 | 10 | Clare Assaf | East Grand Rapids | 23.7 |
| 25 | 9 | Mai Nguyen | Plainwell | 25.4 |
| 26 | 9 | Vivienne Conflitti | Forest Hills Eastern | 25.7 |
| 27 | 12 | Mackenzie Zahm | Belding | 27.1 |
| 28 | 11 | Lydia Huisman | Grand Rapids South Christian | 27.4 |
| 29 | 9 | Joy Van Wyk | Grand Rapids Christian | 31.1 |
| 30 | 11 | Catherine Schellhammer | East Grand Rapids | 31.6 |
Region 13
What’s the Battle?
Paw Paw trying to swoop in and claim that third spot. The Red Wolves really let it rip at last week’s Wolverine Conference meet, receiving a season’s best or better from five girls. 4th place and a performance that if repeated, could pave the way for a trip east to MIS.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Otsego | 31 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 5 |
| 2 | Sturgis | 91 | 2.3 | 95+ | 17 | |
| 3 | St. Joseph | 108 | 3.3 | 65 | 25 | |
| 4 | Paw Paw | 125 | 4.0 | 31 | 36 | |
| 5 | Stevensville Lakeshore | 127 | 4.5 | 7 | 34 | |
| 6 | Marshall | 179 | 6.2 | 52 | ||
| 7 | Battle Creek Harper Creek | 209 | 8.0 | 61 | ||
| 8 | Niles | 211 | 8.1 | 74 | ||
| 9 | Three Rivers | 216 | 8.4 | 68 | ||
| 10 | Edwardsburg | 231 | 9.4 | 78 | ||
| 11 | Berrien Springs | 278 | 11.0 | 86 | ||
| 12 | Coldwater | 321 | 12.3 | 92 | ||
| 13 | Dowagiac Union | 338 | 13.2 | 97 | ||
| 14 | Vicksburg | 343 | 13.4 | 98 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 11 | Emma Hoffman | Otsego | 1.0 |
| 2 | 11 | Berkley Holtz | Sturgis | 2.0 |
| 3 | 9 | Audrey Kline | St. Joseph | 3.9 |
| 4 | 12 | Taylor Mitchell | Otsego | 4.7 |
| 5 | 10 | Skylar Mejeur | Otsego | 6.2 |
| 6 | 11 | Sydney Bir | Sturgis | 7.1 |
| 7 | 12 | Madison Johnson | Paw Paw | 7.4 |
| 8 | 11 | Rebekah Stachura | Otsego | 8.3 |
| 9 | 11 | Julia Faber | Battle Creek Harper Creek | 8.7 |
| 10 | 11 | Tessa Hatt | Sturgis | 11.9 |
| 11 | 11 | Beatrice Perucchetti | St. Joseph | 12.4 |
| 12 | 12 | Taylor Klimp | Otsego | 13.9 |
| 13 | 10 | Hayden Lemieux | Paw Paw | 14.4 |
| 14 | 10 | Madeline Goodwin | Otsego | 15.0 |
| 15 | 12 | Kaylee Sprague | Stevensville Lakeshore | 17.8 |
| 16 | 12 | Charlie Drew | Niles | 19.4 |
| 17 | 10 | Sydney Timmons | Otsego | 19.9 |
| 18 | 12 | Preslee Perkins | Stevensville Lakeshore | 20.1 |
| 19 | 9 | Alaina Dillon | Marshall | 20.2 |
| 20 | 11 | Jayden VandenAkker | Allegan | 20.5 |
| 21 | 9 | Gweneth Eby | Coldwater | 20.6 |
| 22 | 11 | Leah McPartlin | Marshall | 21.1 |
| 23 | 9 | San Juanita Vargas | Paw Paw | 24.0 |
| 24 | 9 | Rylee Zumer | Battle Creek Harper Creek | 24.6 |
| 25 | 12 | Annika DeJong | Stevensville Lakeshore | 25.2 |
| 26 | 12 | Sadie Ebel | St. Joseph | 26.3 |
| 27 | 10 | Lily Cummings | St. Joseph | 27.2 |
| 28 | 11 | Kate Ort | Stevensville Lakeshore | 29.0 |
| 29 | 10 | Eleanor Park | Sturgis | 30.7 |
| 30 | 10 | Brynn Copenhaver | Three Rivers | 31.7 |
Region 14
What’s the Battle?
Love the varied teams that could make it one more week. Any combination of DeWitt + Owosso, St. Johns, Williamston, Mason, or even a Charlotte could advance. Perhaps we could look to the CAAC Red, whose final jamboree was won by the Redwings. A low stick in Ava Schafer plus power from the 2nd and 3rd spots was enough to hold off Williamson, Mason, and Haslett.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | DeWitt | 35 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 4 |
| 2 | Owosso | 123 | 2.7 | 84 | 20 | |
| 3 | St. Johns | 134 | 3.7 | 48 | 27 | |
| 4 | Williamston | 143 | 4.6 | 31 | 30 | |
| 5 | Mason | 147 | 4.9 | 21 | 32 | |
| 6 | Alma | 156 | 5.8 | 43 | ||
| 7 | Charlotte | 159 | 6.3 | 9 | 44 | |
| 8 | Haslett | 173 | 7.3 | 46 | ||
| 9 | Parma Western | 206 | 9.0 | 54 | ||
| 10 | Corunna | 244 | 10.8 | 66 | ||
| 11 | Fowlerville | 248 | 10.9 | 76 | ||
| 12 | Eaton Rapids | 249 | 11.1 | 72 | ||
| 13 | Lansing Waverly | 433 | 13.4 | 112 | ||
| 14 | Lansing Eastern | 436 | 13.6 | 113 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 10 | Ava Schafer | St. Johns | 1.0 |
| 2 | 12 | Ayla Holben | DeWitt | 2.4 |
| 3 | 9 | Remie Ellis | Eaton Rapids | 3.9 |
| 4 | 12 | Mia Williams | DeWitt | 4.3 |
| 5 | 12 | Kayla Williams | DeWitt | 5.4 |
| 6 | 12 | Joy Evans | Alma | 5.5 |
| 7 | 12 | Nicole Schafer | Williamston | 8.2 |
| 8 | 11 | Miriam Kloha | St. Johns | 9.0 |
| 9 | 9 | Aurora Doepker | DeWitt | 11.2 |
| 10 | 10 | Sophia Schafer | Williamston | 12.2 |
| 11 | 12 | Autumn Thompson | DeWitt | 14.5 |
| 12 | 12 | Josie Jenkinson | Owosso | 14.9 |
| 13 | 12 | Julionna West | Owosso | 15.8 |
| 14 | 10 | Morgan Allen | Mason | 15.9 |
| 15 | 12 | Hayven Thiel | Corunna | 16.4 |
| 16 | 11 | Isabella Taber | DeWitt | 17.9 |
| 17 | 11 | Maria Beach | Fowlerville | 18.6 |
| 18 | 10 | Colette Charchut | Haslett | 19.0 |
| 19 | 11 | Natalie Kramer | St. Johns | 19.6 |
| 20 | 11 | Reese Supianoski | Williamston | 20.0 |
| 21 | 12 | Natalie Summerland | Owosso | 21.5 |
| 22 | 11 | Chloe Khon | Jackson Northwest | 21.8 |
| 23 | 9 | Delilah White | Haslett | 22.0 |
| 24 | 10 | Avery Silvas | Charlotte | 23.3 |
| 25 | 12 | Morgan Ashcroft | DeWitt | 24.3 |
| 26 | 9 | Jorga Wooledge | Mason | 29.0 |
| 27 | 9 | Ruby Petee | Mason | 29.0 |
| 28 | 10 | Eliza Milarch | Charlotte | 30.0 |
| 29 | 10 | Jaidyn Nickels | Corunna | 30.8 |
| 30 | 10 | Helena Goodrich | Charlotte | 31.7 |
Region 15
What’s the Battle?
Bluejay magic vs. the odds. Frankenmuth has been a reliable team all year, placing 2nd in the TVC Red, Greater Flint, and Saginaw County. A young Shepherd team has been accelerating towards the finish, buoyed by the emergence of Cailyn Baker, winning the JPC yet again.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Goodrich | 34 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 2 |
| 2 | Freeland | 68 | 2.0 | 95+ | 9 | |
| 3 | Frankenmuth | 93 | 3.1 | 90 | 16 | |
| 4 | Shepherd | 105 | 3.9 | 10 | 19 | |
| 5 | Flint Powers Catholic | 129 | 5.0 | 41 | ||
| 6 | Imlay City | 222 | 6.4 | 88 | ||
| 7 | Saginaw Swan Valley | 230 | 7.2 | 87 | ||
| 8 | Flint Kearsley | 234 | 7.6 | 89 | ||
| 9 | Birch Run | 254 | 9.1 | 93 | ||
| 10 | Ortonville Brandon | 266 | 10.0 | 100 | ||
| 11 | Essexville-Garber | 281 | 11.3 | 102 | ||
| 12 | Bay City John Glenn | 285 | 11.5 | 106 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 10 | Clara Kaczor | Freeland | 1.2 |
| 2 | 11 | Natalie Foltz | Frankenmuth | 2.4 |
| 3 | 10 | Alivia Ottinger | Goodrich | 3.8 |
| 4 | 12 | Grace Evanoff | Flint Powers Catholic | 3.9 |
| 5 | 12 | Kamryn Lauinger | Goodrich | 5.6 |
| 6 | 12 | Layla Jordan | Goodrich | 7.0 |
| 7 | 9 | Kayla Shellenbarger | Goodrich | 7.5 |
| 8 | 10 | Kylie Mausolf | Birch Run | 9.0 |
| 9 | 9 | Danica Redes | Shepherd | 9.1 |
| 10 | 12 | Karie Keefer | Freeland | 10.1 |
| 11 | 10 | Claire Brown | Goodrich | 10.7 |
| 12 | 11 | Elise Barden | Frankenmuth | 12.7 |
| 13 | 12 | Avery Byrne | Goodrich | 14.1 |
| 14 | 10 | Lucy Conzelmann | Frankenmuth | 14.6 |
| 15 | 10 | Baylor Lauinger | Goodrich | 14.8 |
| 16 | 12 | Grace Murphy | Flint Powers Catholic | 15.0 |
| 17 | 11 | Jada Prescott | Freeland | 15.8 |
| 18 | 9 | Cailyn Baker | Shepherd | 16.8 |
| 19 | 12 | Reese Beery | Saginaw Swan Valley | 19.0 |
| 20 | 9 | Gabriella Dallas | Freeland | 20.5 |
| 21 | 12 | Landrey Kuhn | Freeland | 20.8 |
| 22 | 9 | Ellie Thering | Freeland | 22.7 |
| 23 | 10 | Isabel Reinke | Freeland | 23.1 |
| 24 | 11 | Emilee Young | Shepherd | 25.4 |
| 25 | 12 | Gracie Warner | Shepherd | 26.6 |
| 26 | 9 | Sofia Sporman | Flint Kearsley | 27.3 |
| 27 | 9 | Mila Villarreal | Flint Powers Catholic | 28.6 |
| 28 | 11 | Megan Gimmey | Shepherd | 29.0 |
| 29 | 10 | Molly Gaudard | Flint Kearsley | 29.4 |
| 30 | 10 | Aubrey Hare | Saginaw Swan Valley | 29.9 |
Region 16
What’s the Battle?
Another region with a ton of teams in the mix to qualify and/or win. This is a rarity though – Pinckney has over a 50% chance to qualify, but they’re slotted in the 4th spot. This what happens when there are four teams ranked between 22nd and 26th.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Dearborn Divine Child | 83 | 1.6 | 64 | 95+ | 22 |
| 2 | Linden | 91 | 2.8 | 15 | 67 | 23 |
| 3 | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 91 | 3.0 | 6 | 63 | 24 |
| 4 | Pinckney | 94 | 3.3 | 12 | 53 | 26 |
| 5 | Detroit Country Day | 108 | 4.4 | 18 | 37 | |
| 6 | Bloomfield Hills Marian | 170 | 6.9 | 63 | ||
| 7 | Orchard Lake St. Mary’s | 173 | 7.1 | 69 | ||
| 8 | Oak Park | 187 | 7.9 | 73 | ||
| 9 | Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood | 190 | 8.2 | 77 | ||
| 10 | Lake Fenton | 224 | 10.0 | 84 | ||
| 11 | Garden City | 330 | 11.0 | 107 | ||
| 12 | Detroit Cody | 392 | 12.0 | 119 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 10 | Jaelyn Ray | Pinckney | 1.2 |
| 2 | 12 | Mea D’Agostino | Orchard Lake St. Mary’s | 2.4 |
| 3 | 10 | Addison Josephson | Linden | 3.1 |
| 4 | 12 | Madalynn Karsies | Pinckney | 5.0 |
| 5 | 10 | Melody Meckstroth | Linden | 5.8 |
| 6 | 12 | Maria Nunning | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 5.9 |
| 7 | 12 | Nell Stover | Detroit Country Day | 8.3 |
| 8 | 12 | Skylar Vanhecke | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 9.2 |
| 9 | 10 | Sidney Shepard | Linden | 9.4 |
| 10 | 12 | Kathryn Kurtinaitis | Dearborn Divine Child | 10.2 |
| 11 | 9 | Janae Coleman | Oak Park | 13.2 |
| 12 | 12 | Kayla Slade | Dearborn Divine Child | 13.8 |
| 13 | 11 | Annabelle Ellenbogen | Detroit Country Day | 14.9 |
| 14 | 12 | Tess Scicluna | Dearborn Divine Child | 15.5 |
| 15 | 9 | Eastynn Charder | Pinckney | 16.3 |
| 16 | 11 | Anna Kujansuu | Dearborn Divine Child | 16.7 |
| 17 | 10 | Diya Goyal | Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood | 17.5 |
| 18 | 12 | Claire Heller | Detroit Country Day | 18.1 |
| 19 | 9 | Ana Lovell | Lake Fenton | 18.3 |
| 20 | 10 | Paige Willman | Lake Fenton | 20.0 |
| 21 | 9 | Leah Krzeszewski | Bloomfield Hills Marian | 22.0 |
| 22 | 9 | Molly Roberts | Linden | 23.0 |
| 23 | 12 | Dayshana Kellogg | Oak Park | 23.5 |
| 24 | 10 | Claire Dunn | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 23.8 |
| 25 | 12 | Mary Larocca | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 25.3 |
| 26 | 11 | Elizabeth Salinas | Dearborn Divine Child | 27.4 |
| 27 | 11 | Catherine Kipila | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 28.9 |
| 28 | 10 | Flora Ramos | Pontiac Notre Dame Prep | 30.2 |
| 29 | 12 | Ella Schueller | Detroit Country Day | 30.4 |
| 30 | 10 | Lucille Clark | Bloomfield Hills Marian | 30.4 |
Region 17
What’s the Battle?
The dead heat between Armada and Croswell-Lexington. The two BWAC teams have met up in the three conference jamborees. Armada captured the first and third ones, Cros-Lex the middle one. The Pioneers will need someone beyond their top-4 to break up the Tiger pack, which is typically overwhelming enough to buy a victory.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Macomb Lutheran North | 65 | 1.3 | 71 | 95+ | 40 |
| 2 | St. Clair | 73 | 1.7 | 29 | 95+ | 45 |
| 3 | Croswell-Lexington | 105 | 3.7 | 45 | 51 | |
| 4 | Armada | 107 | 3.9 | 46 | 56 | |
| 5 | Warren Regina | 117 | 5.0 | 65 | ||
| 6 | Yale | 125 | 5.5 | 5 | 71 | |
| 7 | Marysville | 157 | 7.0 | 83 | ||
| 8 | Madison Heights Lamphere | 215 | 8.1 | 94 | ||
| 9 | Richmond | 228 | 8.9 | 99 | ||
| 10 | Detroit University Prep | 293 | 10.0 | 109 | ||
| 11 | St. Clair Shores Lake Shore | 350 | 11.3 | 117 | ||
| 12 | Harper Woods | 356 | 11.7 | 118 | ||
| 13 | Detroit Southeastern Tech | 373 | 13.0 | 120 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Eva Thompson | Croswell-Lexington | 1.0 |
| 2 | 12 | Brooklyn Khon | Armada | 2.8 |
| 3 | 10 | Samantha Whitlam | Macomb Lutheran North | 3.0 |
| 4 | 12 | Natalie Lentine | Warren Regina | 4.7 |
| 5 | 12 | Brynn Hurley | Croswell-Lexington | 6.0 |
| 6 | 12 | Elizabeth Ambroggio | Warren Regina | 6.2 |
| 7 | 9 | Saige Cole | Yale | 8.7 |
| 8 | 10 | Ella Thornton | St. Clair | 11.0 |
| 9 | 12 | Allie Komarowski | St. Clair | 11.7 |
| 10 | 10 | Hannah Haines | Madison Heights Lamphere | 11.8 |
| 11 | 12 | Lillian Rutallie | Marysville | 12.3 |
| 12 | 10 | Evelyn Buckley | Macomb Lutheran North | 12.5 |
| 13 | 11 | Molly McNabb | St. Clair | 13.9 |
| 14 | 10 | Gabriella Komarowski | St. Clair | 14.8 |
| 15 | 9 | Chloe Boright | Macomb Lutheran North | 16.1 |
| 16 | 10 | Lillian Bender | Yale | 16.9 |
| 17 | 11 | Abigail Denoyer | Armada | 16.9 |
| 18 | 9 | Lucy Gump | Macomb Lutheran North | 17.3 |
| 19 | 11 | Pauline Chapman | Richmond | 18.7 |
| 20 | 10 | Helena Reiff | Armada | 19.5 |
| 21 | 10 | Avery Stallmann | Macomb Lutheran North | 19.7 |
| 22 | 12 | Isabella LaPerriere | Macomb Lutheran North | 19.7 |
| 23 | 12 | Addison Stevens | Marysville | 21.1 |
| 24 | 12 | Eden Brewer | St. Clair | 23.2 |
| 25 | 9 | Madelyn Barkley | Croswell-Lexington | 23.5 |
| 26 | 10 | Ava Childers | Yale | 25.7 |
| 27 | 9 | Hailey Morrison | Croswell-Lexington | 28.2 |
| 28 | 9 | Jade Siy | Madison Heights Lamphere | 30.0 |
| 29 | 10 | Abbey Morabito | St. Clair | 32.2 |
| 30 | 9 | Rachel McDonell | St. Clair | 32.2 |
Region 18
What’s the Battle?
Gonna be a test of who has the better depth, Carleton Airport or Chelsea. Through four runners, the scores appear fairly even. Chelsea’s depth is rapidly improving, Airport’s is senior-laden and experienced.
Team
| Projected Place | Team | Avg. Score | Avg. Place | Win % | Qualify % | State Rank |
| 1 | Adrian | 48 | 1.0 | 95+ | 95+ | 8 |
| 2 | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 85 | 2.0 | 95+ | 18 | |
| 3 | Carleton Airport | 112 | 3.3 | 71 | 31 | |
| 4 | Chelsea | 121 | 3.9 | 29 | 42 | |
| 5 | Trenton | 144 | 5.7 | 47 | ||
| 6 | Tecumseh | 146 | 5.9 | 48 | ||
| 7 | New Boston Huron | 158 | 6.9 | 53 | ||
| 8 | Milan | 168 | 7.6 | 57 | ||
| 9 | Dundee | 188 | 8.8 | 70 | ||
| 10 | Grosse Ile | 227 | 10.0 | 85 | ||
| 11 | Ypsilanti Community | 308 | 11.0 | 105 | ||
| 12 | Dearborn Henry Ford Academy | 389 | 12.0 | 116 |
Individual
| Projected Place | Grade | Name | Team | Avg. Place |
| 1 | 12 | Courtney Bovair | Carleton Airport | 1.0 |
| 2 | 12 | Sophy Skeels | Adrian | 2.4 |
| 3 | 10 | Ayda Skeels | Adrian | 2.7 |
| 4 | 9 | Madison Petty | Adrian | 4.4 |
| 5 | 11 | Avery Turk | New Boston Huron | 7.1 |
| 6 | 12 | Natalia DeMea | Chelsea | 8.6 |
| 7 | 11 | Evelyn Kuhn | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 8.8 |
| 8 | 10 | Monica Lynn | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 8.9 |
| 9 | SR | Marisa Chuey | Trenton | 9.1 |
| 10 | 11 | Amerie Wilson | Milan | 9.5 |
| 11 | 10 | Bridget Fidkowski | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 9.9 |
| 12 | 9 | Karina Mihai-Grammes | Adrian | 10.1 |
| 13 | 9 | Ella Baker | Carleton Airport | 13.4 |
| 14 | 12 | Kaylee Hovey | Dundee | 14.3 |
| 15 | 11 | Samantha Bieber | Chelsea | 15.0 |
| 16 | 11 | Falyn Doss | New Boston Huron | 17.4 |
| 17 | 12 | Madison Morris | Tecumseh | 17.8 |
| 18 | 9 | Allison Ost | Dundee | 19.0 |
| 19 | 12 | Devyn Dorey | Trenton | 19.4 |
| 20 | 9 | Jamie Glatfelter | Trenton | 19.7 |
| 21 | 11 | Kaily McDaniel | Milan | 21.5 |
| 22 | 11 | Alyssa Korte | Grosse Ile | 23.9 |
| 23 | 10 | Kayla Christesen | New Boston Huron | 24.2 |
| 24 | 12 | Lauren Thompson | Chelsea | 24.7 |
| 25 | 11 | Brenna Baker | Carleton Airport | 28.2 |
| 26 | 10 | Zora Ziolkowski | Chelsea | 28.2 |
| 27 | 10 | Ava Pfaffenbach | Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard | 28.7 |
| 28 | 11 | Claire Cousineau | Tecumseh | 29.1 |
| 29 | 9 | Klair Baker | Adrian | 29.3 |
| 30 | 9 | Jaelynn Greene | Carleton Airport | 30.2 |
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 