2024 Regional Projections: Division 1 Girls

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 1

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Jenison breaking up what looked to be a locked in region. What the Wildcats did in the OK Green Final was absolutely uncalled for. Nearly a perfect score, five girls under 19:20. If Jenison were to compete in the OK Red Final, held two days later at Riverside under similar conditions, they probably place 2^nd. Though one meet doesn’t a season make, especially when Rockford and Grand Haven have been performing at a high level all fall.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Holland West Ottawa	26	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Rockford	82	2.4		94	8
3	Grand Haven	89	3.0		79	10
4	Jenison	97	3.6		27	12
5	Hudsonville	129	5.0			22
6	Grandville	175	6.2			44
7	Zeeland West	183	6.8			49
8	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	236	8.2			74
9	Muskegon Mona Shores	249	9.2			79
10	Greenville	257	9.6			85
11	Grand Rapids Northview	332	11.0			101
12	Grand Rapids Union	376	12.0			117
13	Wyoming	423	13.0			124

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	1.0
2	10	Daisy Cox	Rockford	2.1
3	12	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	3.1
4	12	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	5.0
5	11	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	5.5
6	10	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	5.7
7	12	Chloe DeRidder	Grandville	8.4
8	10	Paige McMeans	Jenison	8.7
9	12	Addy Smith	Grand Haven	9.8
10	12	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	12.1
11	11	Gracelin Martin	Greenville	13.2
12	12	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	14.0
13	10	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	14.4
14	9	Mary Dolbow	Holland West Ottawa	15.1
15	9	Jillian Lewakowski	Rockford	15.3
16	10	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville	16.2
17	10	Lyla Dowling	Holland West Ottawa	17.7
18	12	Natalie Lewis	Rockford	18.2
19	9	Maddy Aleisa	Jenison	18.3
20	11	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	18.9
21	12	Naomi Diekman	Jenison	20.6
22	9	Morgan Sanders	Rockford	20.6
23	11	Macy Guikema	Jenison	21.9
24	11	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	22.8
25	12	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	23.8
26	12	Melana Karsten	Rockford	27.8
27	11	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	28.2
28	11	Andrea Schwartz	Jenison	28.5
29	10	Ashley Wayne	Hudsonville	28.8
30	12	Gracey Barry	Grand Haven	29.7

Region 2

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Shepherd is the middle ground between Traverse City West and Okemos. One travels from Lansing, the other from Northern Michigan. Despite the differences, these teams have come across each other already. Portage saw TCW finish 11^th in the D1 race, Okemos 16^th. If Rachel Smith had been able to score for the Wolves, chances are the two outfits would be within a few points, as they are expected to be here.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Okemos	60	1.2	82	95+	6
2	Traverse City West	67	1.9	16	95+	9
3	Midland Dow	79	2.9		95+	13
4	Bay City Western	123	4.5			27
5	Traverse City Central	124	4.5			25
6	Grand Ledge	186	6.4			48
7	Midland	197	7.3			50
8	East Lansing	200	7.3			55
9	Mt. Pleasant	239	9.1			63
10	Holt	260	10.1			76
11	Alpena	281	10.9			82
12	Saginaw Heritage	303	11.9			87
13	Lansing Everett	425	13.0			119

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Victoria Garces	Midland Dow	1.2
2	9	Rachel Smith	Okemos	2.0
3	9	Emilia Garces	Midland Dow	2.8
4	12	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	5.1
5	10	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	5.4
6	11	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	6.9
7	10	Gabriella Fugazzi	Okemos	7.2
8	11	October Harns	Okemos	7.6
9	11	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	8.6
10	10	Jaclyn Suderman	Bay City Western	11.7
11	9	Emma McLaughlin	Midland	12.7
12	12	Sydney Roberts	Midland Dow	12.8
13	12	Ella Reaves	Holt	13.1
14	9	Ariana Rajah	Traverse City Central	13.7
15	11	Bailey Wenzlick	Traverse City West	15.7
16	9	Jessa Skonieczny	Mt. Pleasant	17.8
17	9	Emily Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	18.4
18	12	Alyssa Fouchey	Traverse City West	19.6
19	11	Sienna Cobb	Traverse City Central	20.3
20	11	Reese Smith	Traverse City West	20.4
21	9	Emily Barrie	East Lansing	22.1
22	9	Alyssa McFall	Okemos	22.3
23	11	Lydia Jagger	Grand Ledge	22.8
24	11	Fiona Whitmyer	Okemos	23.4
25	10	Bridget Raven	Traverse City West	25.2
26	9	Sawyer Lynn	Saginaw Heritage	28.0
27	9	Mya Bower	Okemos	28.6
28	11	Mallory Wilcox	Bay City Western	28.7
29	12	Olivia Tandoc	Okemos	28.9
30	12	Amelia Roznowski	Alpena	30.0

Region 3

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Which unexpected team comes out of this region? Summer projections had Byron Center at 3, Forest Hills Northern at 4, Ottawa Hills at 6, and Caledonia at 8. By those numbers, the most shocking to this point are the Bengals, who just finished 5^th in the OK White, one of the state’s tougher leagues.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Portage Central	53	1.0	95+	95+	11
2	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	100	2.2		95+	26
3	Forest Hills Northern	114	3.2		71	31
4	Byron Center	130	4.2		19	35
5	Caledonia	134	4.3		11	37
6	Forest Hills Central	193	6.2			53
7	Portage Northern	214	7.1			59
8	Kalamazoo Central	227	8.6			61
9	East Kentwood	231	8.8			62
10	Lowell	245	10.4			66
11	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	248	10.6			68
12	Battle Creek Lakeview	256	11.3			73
13	Mattawan	310	13.0			88

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Annie Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	1.2
2	9	Avery Scott	Portage Central	2.0
3	11	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	3.9
4	9	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern	4.2
5	11	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	4.3
6	9	Gracie Carlisle	Portage Central	5.6
7	11	Willa Prinsen	Forest Hills Northern	7.7
8	11	Lilah Yoder	Forest Hills Central	9.0
9	12	Hannah Dupuis	Caledonia	10.2
10	9	Cecelia Wojciakowski	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	11.4
11	12	Reese Hansen	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	11.6
12	9	Julia Welc	Portage Central	12.7
13	12	Sofia Bogard	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	13.0
14	11	Rhea Mouw	Portage Central	14.6
15	10	Madeleine Hengeveld	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	14.6
16	9	Jaclyn Charbauski	Forest Hills Northern	17.4
17	11	Kailey Mann	Byron Center	19.7
18	9	Claire Mouw	Portage Central	19.8
19	10	Olivia Storteboom	Portage Central	19.8
20	11	Enna Wainer	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	21.1
21	12	Claire O’Boyle	Lowell	23.5
22	11	Donna Haaksma	Byron Center	24.0
23	11	Lilamae Frank	Battle Creek Lakeview	25.1
24	12	Keira Bommarito	Caledonia	25.8
25	12	Alayna Godfrey	East Kentwood	26.8
26	12	Celia Pollock	Byron Center	29.4
27	9	Emmarie Formsma	Byron Center	30.9
28	12	Kiley Bommarito	Caledonia	31.0
29	12	Samantha McClelland	Forest Hills Northern	32.5
30	11	Kate Barron	Mattawan	32.6

Region 4

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Hartland against Dexter. Hartland holds a bit of an advantage up front, having three girls capable of running in the low-19’s or faster. The Dreadnaughts may not be as quick on the top end, though they bring forth six that can throw down mid-20’s or better. Look to the gaps, if Hartland’s best three are a bit ahead of Dexter’s five, that gap may be enough to counteract the depth.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Brighton	30	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Ann Arbor Skyline	70	2.2		95+	14
3	Hartland	84	3.2		70	18
4	Dexter	92	3.6		30	20
5	Grand Blanc	134	5.4			36
6	Davison	139	5.6			41
7	Lapeer	204	7.0			64
8	Holly	245	8.1			83
9	Howell	262	8.9			89
10	Fenton	297	10.2			93
11	Flushing	307	10.8			96
12	Swartz Creek	366	12.4			110
13	Jackson	366	12.6			109

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	1.5
2	12	Grace Tykocki	Grand Blanc	2.4
3	9	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline	3.8
4	12	Elle Bissett	Brighton	4.4
5	10	Ava Goodman	Hartland	5.8
6	11	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	6.3
7	9	Ella Lorenz	Brighton	7.9
8	10	Becca Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	9.2
9	11	Nevaeh Polovina	Davison	10.0
10	11	Courtney Lince	Brighton	10.6
11	11	Sophia Nunnery	Hartland	10.9
12	12	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	11.4
13	11	Elliana Neuer	Hartland	14.0
14	10	Irie Scrase	Ann Arbor Skyline	14.7
15	10	Kodie Snyder	Dexter	15.0
16	11	Morgan Christopher	Brighton	16.5
17	10	Isla Tharp	Ann Arbor Skyline	18.1
18	11	Maizie Cavanaugh	Brighton	18.2
19	12	Annabel O’Haver	Dexter	21.0
20	12	Addison Bruckman	Dexter	21.0
21	9	Leah Humphrey	Grand Blanc	21.8
22	10	Brooklyn Wiltse	Davison	22.1
23	11	Lilah Weber	Lapeer	24.4
24	9	Layla Blumberg	Dexter	24.5
25	9	Lila Edison	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.6
26	12	Zoe Howard	Hartland	25.7
27	12	Olivia Gartrell	Davison	25.8
28	11	Ivy Forrest	Davison	28.1
29	9	Hannah DePestel	Hartland	28.7
30	10	Maddie Lindley	Holly	29.7

Region 5

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

A yearly tradition: Ann Arbor Pioneer and Saline. According to Jacob Tanner’s wonderful tome of regional history, this Region 5 title has been won by either of the two for each of the past ten years. Currently, Pioneer leads those standings from 2014 on, 7-3. With these two teams sitting straight at the top of the area, depth becomes less of an issue and Saline’s advantage is a bit thwarted. In spite of that, the projections still have the Hornets as a slight favorite.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saline	31	1.4	57	95+	3
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	32	1.6	43	95+	5
3	Brownstown Woodhaven	90	3.0		95+	32
4	Gibraltar Carlson	152	4.4			69
5	Temperance Bedford	155	4.6			72
6	Wyandotte Roosevelt	189	6.0			84
7	Monroe	247	7.6			94
8	Belleville	259	8.7			103
9	Dearborn	260	8.7			98
10	Allen Park	267	9.4			95
11	Ypsilanti Lincoln	288	10.9			105
12	Southgate Anderson	306	11.8			104
13	Detroit Cass Tech	353	13.1			115
14	Dearborn Fordson	373	14.0			116
15	Detroit Martin Luther King	446	14.9			123

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	11	Hana Boggess	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.8
3	9	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.2
4	9	McKinley Jones	Saline	3.3
5	9	Savannah Staton	Saline	4.9
6	12	Corynn Gady	Saline	6.3
7	10	Katarina Munson	Saline	7.6
8	9	Charley McKay	Brownstown Woodhaven	8.4
9	11	Lillian (Lilli) Schlack	Saline	9.4
10	10	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer	10.0
11	10	Iva Ravindra	Temperance Bedford	11.7
12	12	Grace Roth	Saline	11.9
13	9	Adelynn Turck	Saline	12.2
14	11	Eleanor Grant	Wyandotte Roosevelt	15.6
15	9	Annabelle Chan	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.6
16	12	Clara Peikert	Ann Arbor Pioneer	16.2
17	12	Lucy Pike	Ann Arbor Pioneer	16.7
18	12	Raelyn McLaughlin	Brownstown Woodhaven	18.0
19	11	Bridget Kerber	Ann Arbor Pioneer	18.1
20	10	Adrianna Zub	Allen Park	21.0
21	10	Reagan Reaume	Gibraltar Carlson	22.2
22	10	Hope Noal	Brownstown Woodhaven	22.9
23	9	Giada Fioritto	Gibraltar Carlson	23.0
24	10	Sophia Johnson	Temperance Bedford	25.7
25	11	Elliana Perugi	Brownstown Woodhaven	26.9
26	9	Alexis Kmiecik	Brownstown Woodhaven	27.1
27	9	Joy Schuck	Southgate Anderson	27.7
28	12	Mercedes Dziendziel	Wyandotte Roosevelt	28.0
29	9	Livia Boucher	Gibraltar Carlson	28.0
30	11	Anna Coury	Monroe	28.0

Region 6

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Is Farmington’s late season move enough? The Falcons have benefitted from the return of Catherine Steele and the emergence of Kierra Magner. Farmington traveled down 275 for the Huron Invite in an attempt of a course preview, but they cannot come close to the familiarity that the Salem has with Willow, having raced here on three occasions.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Northville	59	1.0	95+	95+	15
2	Ann Arbor Huron	92	2.1		95+	24
3	Farmington	110	3.2		80	30
4	Salem	128	4.3		15	42
5	Livonia Franklin	139	4.9			40
6	Livonia Churchill	152	5.6			45
7	Plymouth	176	7.1			58
8	Canton	199	8.3			65
9	Farmington Hills Mercy	208	8.8			67
10	Livonia Stevenson	230	9.8			78
11	Detroit Renaissance	312	11.3			97
12	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	324	11.7			99
13	Wayne Memorial	364	13.0			111
14	Westland John Glenn	446	14.0			122

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	1.4
2	10	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	3.0
3	12	Lucinda Paliani	Ann Arbor Huron	3.8
4	12	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	4.2
5	10	Colette Lozo	Northville	4.9
6	12	Cassie Garcia	Northville	6.3
7	11	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill	6.9
8	11	Mackenzie Dicken	Plymouth	8.2
9	11	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	10.8
10	11	Becca Jud	Salem	11.7
11	12	Catherine Steele	Farmington	11.7
12	11	Molly Kate Coates	Northville	14.6
13	12	Molly Baracco	Farmington	15.4
14	10	Samantha Bartell	Salem	16.0
15	9	Sadie Bohnsack	Ann Arbor Huron	17.0
16	11	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	17.5
17	10	Julie Schuessler	Livonia Churchill	18.5
18	11	Annabelle Beloiu	Northville	18.6
19	12	Ilett Martinez	Wayne Memorial	19.2
20	12	Rosa Brody	Canton	20.4
21	11	Kierra Magner	Farmington	20.6
22	10	Mia Carson	Northville	20.9
23	11	Ellie Jasperson	Northville	21.3
24	10	Lucia Lachapelle	Northville	21.9
25	12	Brooklyn Hannah	Livonia Franklin	23.6
26	9	Mira Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	25.1
27	11	Kinsey Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	26.6
28	11	Rachael Halkey	Livonia Churchill	28.4
29	10	Katelyn Parrish	Farmington	29.9
30	9	Lucy Morrow	Livonia Franklin	30.1

Region 7

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Sal’s Magic vs. their LVC foe and the host squad. Coming in at 14^th in Oakland County, Milford was appearing down, out, and out of regional contention. But they’ve put it together in the final few weeks, notching a 2^nd place finish at the LVC Championship, six points ahead of Walled Lake Northern. But they’re both chasing Royal Oak, who’ll hope to use their home track and ability to go six deep to their advantage.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	White Lake Lakeland	40	1.0	95+	95+	17
2	Novi	79	2.2		95+	28
3	Royal Oak	101	3.3		69	33
4	Walled Lake Northern	118	4.4		13	43
5	Highland-Milford	124	4.4		21	46
6	Birmingham Seaholm	161	6.2			54
7	Walled Lake Central	179	7.2			56
8	South Lyon East	223	8.1			70
9	South Lyon	247	8.9			80
10	Berkley	254	9.4			57
11	Beverly Hills Groves	278	11.0			86
12	North Farmington	301	11.9			92
13	West Bloomfield	387	13.0			106
14	Walled Lake Western	412	14.0			114

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	1.3
2	10	Katelynn Egli	Novi	2.0
3	10	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland	5.8
4	10	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	6.0
5	10	Emily Alt	Walled Lake Northern	7.6
6	9	Eliana Fredrick	Walled Lake Northern	9.3
7	11	Lauren Bradley	Highland-Milford	10.0
8	10	Morgan Scally	White Lake Lakeland	10.4
9	11	Mya Tass	Novi	10.8
10	10	Anna Macdonald	Royal Oak	12.0
11	12	Cora Liu	North Farmington	12.1
12	10	Genevieve Connolly	White Lake Lakeland	14.6
13	12	Alena Tiernan	White Lake Lakeland	14.8
14	11	Kayla Ward	South Lyon	15.7
15	9	Olivia Peterson	Royal Oak	16.1
16	9	Alexa Siegel	Walled Lake Central	16.6
17	9	Sam Horton	White Lake Lakeland	18.4
18	10	Allie Gallagher	Walled Lake Northern	18.5
19	10	Jane Meinecke	Royal Oak	19.4
20	10	Paige Haller	Walled Lake Central	20.3
21	10	Kareena Babu	Novi	22.0
22	10	Claire Porinsky	South Lyon East	23.1
23	12	Molly Grubb	Birmingham Seaholm	23.5
24	10	Isabelle Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	23.7
25	9	Claire Galas	Novi	26.6
26	9	Mia Maccani	Royal Oak	26.7
27	10	Olivia Dixon	Birmingham Seaholm	27.9
28	11	Carina Tortelli	Novi	28.5
29	12	Joanna Philip	Novi	29.7
30	11	Emma Viggiano	Royal Oak	30.0

Region 8

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The projections themselves appear pretty dang straight forward. Three teams under 100, well separated from the folks in 4^th and above, projected at nearly 120 points or higher. But projections are thrown out the window in the case of an Oakland County Championship, where both Oxford and Troy come in ahead of Clarkston. Two Thursdays ago, wrongs were righted in the Wolves’ minds, finishing ahead of those two teams in the OK Red Final. I’m sure they’re looking for more of the same, the opposite being true for the Wildcats and Colts.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Rochester	49	1.0	95+	95+	7
2	Rochester Adams	78	2.3		95+	19
3	Clarkston	87	2.7		95+	21
4	Oxford	119	4.4			34
5	Troy	125	4.7			38
6	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	157	6.8			47
7	Lake Orion	159	6.9			51
8	Bloomfield Hills	163	7.2			52
9	Troy Athens	240	9.0			77
10	Utica Ford	291	10.0			90
11	Warren Mott	349	11.0			100
12	Waterford Kettering	394	12.5			113
13	Warren Cousino	394	12.5			112
14	Sterling Heights Stevenson	443	14.1			120
15	Waterford Mott	455	14.9			121
16	Sterling Heights	519	16.0			126

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lucy Cook	Rochester	1.6
2	12	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	2.1
3	11	Ella Abraham	Rochester	3.0
4	11	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	4.0
5	10	El McMahan	Rochester Adams	5.6
6	10	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion	7.8
7	11	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	8.7
8	12	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	8.8
9	9	Ava Thomas	Rochester Adams	10.4
10	10	Addison Brigham	Clarkston	11.1
11	11	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills	11.2
12	9	Charlotte Jones	Rochester	12.4
13	10	Avery DeGrendel	Clarkston	12.8
14	12	Kaitlyn Kauppila	Rochester Adams	12.8
15	11	Taylor Parsons	Rochester	13.7
16	10	Kendal Russette	Clarkston	14.8
17	12	Madie Miller	Troy	17.4
18	10	Olivia Jenney	Bloomfield Hills	17.7
19	11	Cecilia Kreiter	Rochester Adams	17.8
20	12	Stephanie Bulat	Rochester	19.7
21	12	Mia Snellgrove	Rochester	21.3
22	10	Paityn Sweet	Clarkston	23.3
23	10	Annie Roraff	Rochester	25.1
24	10	Natalie Meldrum	Lake Orion	25.9
25	11	Sydney Fischer	Clarkston	25.9
26	12	Meher Deol	Troy Athens	27.1
27	10	Tessa Kozlowski	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	28.5
28	10	Lauren Giroux	Troy	30.0
29	12	Lia Toltzman	Troy	31.6
30	12	Allison Murray	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	32.6

Region 9

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Fraser trying to do it again. Spurred by huge efforts from Kate Molloy and Alice Foley, the Ramblers defied the odds at Macomb County. Those odds have now doubled, but they’re still considered solid underdogs to Macomb Dakota. Listed in the entries for Saturday’s race is Aubrey Rizzo, who missed the County meet and could be a definite help for the Cougar cause. And I’m sure they’ve been stewing over on 21 Mile.

The nerve-racking battle for me is Romeo staying under 16 points. Every single simulation had the Bulldog girls with a perfect score.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Romeo	15	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Utica	73	2.0		95+	16
3	Macomb Dakota	92	3.1		93	23
4	Fraser	108	4.0		7	29
5	Grosse Pointe South	134	4.9			39
6	Utica Eisenhower	186	6.4			60
7	Chippewa Valley	204	7.2			71
8	Port Huron Northern	209	7.6			75
9	L’Anse Creuse North	238	8.8			81
10	Grosse Pointe North	285	10.0			91
11	Anchor Bay	347	11.1			102
12	L’Anse Creuse	373	12.3			107
13	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	374	12.5			108
14	Warren Woods Tower	436	14.0			118
15	Detroit East English	494	15.0			125

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	1.2
2	10	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	2.3
3	12	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	3.8
4	12	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	4.2
5	12	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	4.8
6	11	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	5.3
7	11	Brooke McFarland	Utica	8.3
8	11	Ella Goodsell	Romeo	8.3
9	12	Grace Grupido	Fraser	9.0
10	11	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	10.5
11	11	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	11.1
12	10	Emma Brown	Utica	11.5
13	12	Sophia Aquino	Utica	12.9
14	10	Aubrey Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	13.4
15	11	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	17.2
16	12	Julia Timpa	Macomb Dakota	17.2
17	12	Sarah Koval	Grosse Pointe South	18.8
18	10	Lilianna Peace	Chippewa Valley	19.5
19	10	Maggie Baginski	Utica Eisenhower	20.5
20	11	Jacalyn Yakel	Utica Eisenhower	21.2
21	10	Alice Foley	Fraser	22.2
22	11	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern	22.5
23	12	Chloe Caulfield	Grosse Pointe South	22.7
24	12	Savannah Spangler	Grosse Pointe South	26.5
25	12	Mylene Pham	Macomb Dakota	26.6
26	11	Kate Molloy	Fraser	26.9
27	11	Ryann Smitka	Macomb Dakota	27.2
28	12	Adelina Parikh	Grosse Pointe South	29.3
29	10	Kaitlyn Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	29.5
30	12	Charlotte Long	Utica Eisenhower	30.8

Region 1

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Region 7

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Region 8

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Region 9

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