2024 Division 4 Finals Projections

The creative writing juices tapped out after months of writing, this is titled projections instead of preview. Previous iterations of these have had me writing until the wee hours of the night. I want to be my happy self on Saturday, so I’m gonna rely on the narratives written throughout the season and a few paragraphs here.

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest projected score to highest projected score
Projected Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top 10 % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

BOYS TEAM

Hillsdale Academy is far and away the favorite. The Colts have returned four of their five scorers and five of their varsity runners from 2023’s state championship. This fall, they’ve taken part in three meets with a decent range of D4 competition: Holly, Portage, and Class D. Each were significant victories. Fast and deep, they’ve shown the ability to place all scorers in the low-17’s or faster.

Following a rough showing at Spartan, Holland Calvary Christian has been able to move up and then stabilize. Perhaps the greatest example of that stability comes again from Portage, where the Crusaders packed up in the mid-17’s, opening up a 40-point gap on the rest of the D4 field.

These two teams are the overwhelming favorites to grab spots on the podium. Beyond the two, it appears that 3^rd thru 9^th places are up for grabs, then a few teams will be in contention for the 10^th spot.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Hillsdale Academy	104	1st-2nd	95+	95+	95+
2	Holland Calvary Christian	158	1st-3rd		95+	95+
3	Royal Oak Shrine	217	2nd-6th		3	95+
4	Maple City Glen Lake	224	3rd-6th			95+
5	Mason County Eastern	231	3rd-7th			95+
6	Harbor Springs	252	3rd-8th			95+
7	Kalamazoo Hackett	267	5th-9th			95+
8	White Cloud	295	5th-10th			95+
9	Whitmore Lake	303	7th-11th			95
10	Bridgman	335	8th-13th			49
11	Leland	344	8th-15th			37
12	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	358	9th-15th			13
13	Petoskey St. Michael	369	11th-16th
14	Dansville	376	10th-18th			5
15	Harbor Beach	400	11th-20th
16	Dryden	414	13th-21st
17	Tri-unity Christian	414	13th-20th
18	Riverview Gabriel Richard	417	14th-21st
19	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	430	15th-22nd
20	Manchester	436	15th-23rd
21	Three Oaks River Valley	458	16th-24th
22	Webberville	479	20th-24th
23	Ellsworth	502	17th-26th
24	Marlette	509	22nd-25th
25	Concord	534	21st-26th
26	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	556	24th-26th
27	Beal City	645	26th-27th

GIRLS TEAM

Another returning champion that is in the driver’s seat. Whitmore Lake lost a three-time All-Stater from their 2023 squad and has had girls step up in her absence. The Trojans are unafraid of competition, traveling to Shepherd on multiple occasions to face off against teams from higher divisions. At Portage and Holly, they stuck to their own division, walking away with victories at each spot.

If the Trojans were to fall, likely contenders are Hillsdale Academy and Bridgman. The two squads placed within three points of each other at Portage and have each shown signs that they’re capable of pulling an upset. For the Bees, it was Christian Comet; the Colts, Region 34. Those two races saw the teams place all scorers under 21:30, which would give the hope that they can create enough of a gap on Whitmore Lake’s depth.

I love the combinations of teams that could get on the podium. The most intriguing is Auburn Hills Oakland Christian. Their regional course ran about as fair as one can imagine, yet the Lancer trio of frontrunners were able to slip under 20-flat. Math could work out in their favor if their score through three is low enough.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Whitmore Lake	135	1st-3rd	80	93	95+
2	Hillsdale Academy	169	1st-7th	12	42	95+
3	Harbor Springs	175	2nd-5th		24	95+
4	Bridgman	179	1st-6th	6	24	95+
5	Breckenridge	190	2nd-7th		11	95+
6	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	224	2nd-9th		6	95+
7	Kalamazoo Hackett	237	6th-9th			95+
8	Gobles	241	4th-10th			95+
9	Bear Lake-Onekama	263	7th-10th			95+
10	Ubly	334	10th-15th			35
11	Grand Traverse Academy	343	9th-18th			22
12	Lansing Christian	351	10th-17th			17
13	Vestaburg	360	10th-18th			15
14	Royal Oak Shrine	363	10th-18th			11
15	Fowler	364	11th-18th
16	Buckley	377	11th-17th
17	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	385	12th-18th
18	Martin	417	15th-20th
19	Unionville-Sebewaing	451	18th-21st
20	Harbor Beach	477	19th-23d
21	Rogers City	480	18th-23rd
22	Beal City	517	20th-26th
23	Plymouth Christian Academy	538	20th-26th
24	Concord	538	21st-26th
25	Ellsworth	553	19th-26th
26	Petersburg-Summerfield	555	22nd-26th
27	White Pigeon	749	26th-27th

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

The experience gained from track titles, the endurance gained from ultras, Marek Butkiewicz hit the season blazing and hasn’t let up. Butkiewicz took an early loss at Michigan Catholic against D2’s Colin Murray and has been winning ever since. The times have come too – 15:27 at Otsego, 15:24 at Portage, and 15:11 at Gabriel Richard. He’s a solid favorite.

If there is someone to compete with Marek, it’s Abenezer Cerone. Last year’s 3^rd place finisher has won quite a bit himself – at Hansons, Brooks, and a 2^nd consecutive regional championship. He’s also faced off against stronger competition, placing 7^th in the ever-tough Oakland County Championship. His time there was 16:34, 27 sec. faster than 2023 under similar conditions. A definite candidate to run in the mid-15’s on Saturday.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	1.3
2	11	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	2.4
3	12	Theodore Davis	Dansville	4.4
4	10	Kyle Redman	Mesick	5.5
5	12	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	7.5
6	11	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	7.5
7	11	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	9.6
8	12	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	10.9
9	11	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	11.4
10	11	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	11.5
11	11	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	12.3
12	11	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	12.6
13	12	Tyler Laansma	Tri-unity Christian	13.4
14	12	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	13.5
15	12	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	14.5
16	10	Ty Redman	Mesick	15.3
17	12	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	16.1
18	10	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	19.8
19	10	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard	20.3
20	12	Reece Poole	Hillsdale Academy	20.4
21	12	Austin Sneed	East Jordan	21.6
22	10	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	21.9
23	12	Teddy Ippel	Bridgman	22.6
24	10	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	25.3
25	11	Grant Johnson	Manchester	30.9
26	11	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	31.5
27	10	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge	31.7
28	10	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	31.7
29	12	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	31.9
30	11	Luke Molenkamp	Hillsdale Academy	32.9
31	11	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	34.8
32	12	Kaleb Canning	White Cloud	37.2
33	9	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-unity Christian	39.2
34	11	Carson Burgess	Brown City	39.4
35	11	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick	39.9
36	11	Liam McCaw	Maple City Glen Lake	40.4
37	11	Henry Lindley	Hillsdale Academy	40.7
38	9	Grant Corlew	Harbor Springs	41.4
39	10	Vern Clyne	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	41.8
40	11	James Rahe	Hillsdale Academy	42.0
41	10	Timothy Gaebler	Hillsdale Academy	42.7
42	9	Lance Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	44.5
43	12	Teddy Krieger	Harbor Springs	49.0
44	11	Khadar Jama	Ellsworth	49.1
45	12	Ben Iobe	Mendon	49.2
46	12	Joel Lange	Adrian Lenawee Christian	49.7
47	12	Zack Becker	Unionville-Sebewaing	51.2
48	11	Jesse Fielis	White Pigeon	51.6
49	11	Jonah Pollatz	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	51.8
50	11	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	52.0
51	10	Riley Weed	Holland Calvary Christian	52.3
52	11	Rich Fanti	Riverview Gabriel Richard	54.2
53	12	Russell Vandermus	Petoskey St. Michael	54.3
54	10	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian	58.1
55	11	Max Brannan	Lutheran HS Westland	58.6
56	12	Matthew Pasiak	Harbor Beach	59.3
57	10	Brody VanTuinen	Holland Calvary Christian	62.3
58	11	Cole Brege	Rogers City	62.7
59	10	Caleb Adkins	Holland Calvary Christian	62.9
60	10	Milo Shoup	Mason County Eastern	64.6
61	9	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy	65.3
62	9	Carter Suttmann	Leland	67.3
63	9	Owen Jarosz	Frankfort	67.5
64	10	Ryan Miller	Hillsdale Academy	67.5
65	9	Nolan Collins	Whitmore Lake	67.8
66	10	Rush Marsden	Fulton	68.4
67	11	Josiah Johncox	Byron	68.7
68	11	Reuben Jiran	Novi Christian Academy	69.5
69	9	Joseph Edwards	New Buffalo	69.9
70	9	Beckett Dennis	Grand Traverse Academy	72.6
71	11	Andrew Lopez	Royal Oak Shrine	72.8
72	9	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	75.2
73	11	Ethan West	Webberville	75.9
74	11	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	77.4
75	11	Jack Sharar	Rogers City	78.7
76	11	Logan Romain	Dryden	78.7
77	11	Quentin Smith	Fowler	79.8
78	12	Nico DiPonio	Austin Catholic	80.1
79	9	Levi Fitchett	Dryden	81.2
80	11	Nicholas Trader	Fairview	81.2
81	9	Kaiden Lague	Mason County Eastern	81.4
82	12	Ryan Blankenship	Eau Claire	83.5
83	11	Joel Johnson	Detroit Frederick Douglass	87.3
84	10	Amos Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	88.2
85	12	Camden Fager	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	89.1
86	11	Michael Walsh	Ubly	90.3
87	11	Gavin Howery	Webberville	91.0
88	9	Nathan West	Webberville	91.6
89	10	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview	92.1
90	11	Keith Crompton	Frankfort	92.4
91	11	Matthew Bentley	Buckley	93.9
92	12	Aaron Crittenden	Potterville	93.9
93	12	Tom Shafer	Lutheran HS Westland	94.4
94	12	Beau Shaffer	Morenci	96.6
95	10	Ayden Mayr	Dansville	98.5
96	11	Caesar Soma	Royal Oak Shrine	98.6
97	11	Carter Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	99.4
98	10	Evan Keen	Leland	99.7
99	12	Alexander Dumont	Kalamazoo Hackett	100.1
100	9	Anderson Karkau	Dansville	100.8

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Over the past two years, Kaylie Livingston has displayed a wonderful ability to remain undaunted by the circumstances. Traveling here and there, running non-descript conference meets, heading to the indoor track in the middle of basketball season. Through this, she’s picked up a track title, indoor title, and placed 2^nd here last year. She’s been the class of D4 this time, running into the 17’s in five of her past seven meets. She’s likely the favorite.

Allie Nowak and Libby Smith are two others to watch. Nowak is lightly raced, but she’s well used to these championship races, having won one of her own during track. Smith has been consistently rising over the course of the season, hitting the mid-18’s in five of her past six efforts.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake	1.3
2	10	Libby Smith	Gobles	3.1
3	12	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	3.2
4	12	Abigail Davis	Vestaburg	4.6
5	12	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	5.2
6	12	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	6.3
7	9	Callie Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	7.1
8	12	Izzy Brooks	Adrian Lenawee Christian	7.3
9	11	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	11.0
10	12	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	12.7
11	11	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	13.3
12	10	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	13.4
13	11	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	16.2
14	12	Ella Knudsen	Leland	17.0
15	11	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran HS Westland	19.2
16	12	Presley Allen	Mendon	20.9
17	10	Veyda Conley	Martin	21.9
18	10	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles	23.9
19	11	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	25.0
20	11	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	25.4
21	12	Danica Aldrich	Breckenridge	25.4
22	10	Addy Zeller	Bear Lake-Onekama	25.4
23	10	Harlie Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	25.9
24	11	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	26.0
25	10	Amelia McKinney	Grand Traverse Academy	26.4
26	9	Carmella Julian	Maple City Glen Lake	26.8
27	11	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	27.0
28	10	Lydia Gleason	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	29.3
29	12	Brooke Sonnenberg	Genesee Christian Academy	30.8
30	12	Ella Walton	Hillsdale Academy	34.9
31	12	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	35.1
32	12	Melanie Warren	Bridgman	35.4
33	10	Evelyn Meyer	Hillsdale Academy	37.0
34	9	Cassidy Bowers	Austin Catholic	37.1
35	11	Rowan Allen	Mendon	37.3
36	11	Cara Prusakiewicz	Dryden	38.9
37	12	Clara Fast	Bridgman	39.0
38	10	Adrienne Mitchell	Lansing Christian	39.1
39	11	Addison Jarosz	Frankfort	41.3
40	12	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	41.6
41	10	Brie Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	44.2
42	12	Caroline Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	45.0
43	12	Aubrey Appleman	Britton Deerfield	45.3
44	9	Sophie Grinage	Leland	46.9
45	9	Melodie Hulinek	Bear Lake-Onekama	47.1
46	9	Alyvia Janke	Unionville-Sebewaing	47.9
47	12	Brianna Locke	Beal City	48.5
48	10	Avery Langlois	Rogers City	49.3
49	12	Stephanie Hernandez	Addison	50.6
50	11	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	53.3
51	10	Ruby Pletcher	Ellsworth	55.6
52	11	Stella Behnan	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	55.9
53	11	Makenzie Wolfe	Petersburg-Summerfield	56.2
54	9	Anna Howell	Bridgman	57.8
55	10	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	58.7
56	12	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	60.5
57	12	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	60.5
58	11	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	62.5
59	11	Raley Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	66.1
60	11	Leire Mahiques	Buckley	66.1
61	12	Riley McCumber	Pittsford	66.7
62	12	Julia Rogers	Kimball New Life Christian	67.8
63	10	Allie Miller	Hillsdale Academy	68.7
64	9	Madison Markowicz	Novi Christian Academy	68.9
65	10	Haley Stimer	Concord	69.7
66	12	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	70.4
67	9	Payton King	Kingston	71.2
68	10	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	73.0
69	11	Madison Cooley	Gobles	73.1
70	12	Rose Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	75.9
71	10	Genevieve Rodham	Harbor Springs	76.2
72	10	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	76.6
73	11	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	77.3
74	11	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	78.7
75	12	Nataly Vine	Breckenridge	79.3
76	9	Sophia Balistreri	Harbor Springs	79.7
77	9	Zoe Fabing	Fowler	80.3
78	12	Abby Ulbrich	Kalamazoo Hackett	82.8
79	9	Abbygail Plester	Ubly	82.9
80	10	Louisa Denks	Royal Oak Shrine	83.7
81	12	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-unity Christian	83.7
82	11	Kinsey Peer	Buckley	84.3
83	12	Autumn Reynolds	Potterville	86.3
84	12	Bridget Miller	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	87.5
85	11	Kate Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	89.3
86	9	Nora Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	89.4
87	11	Elizabeth Caspar	Hillsdale Academy	90.2
88	12	Mickiah Allbee	Vestaburg	90.5
89	12	Reece Wruble	Harbor Beach	92.7
90	11	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	93.6
91	10	Elizabeth Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes	94.7
92	9	Maizy Matthews	Breckenridge	94.8
93	10	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy	95.2
94	9	Allison Schmitt	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	96.1
95	11	Juliette Tallon	Lansing Christian	96.1
96	12	Isabella Nelson-Daniels	Whitmore Lake	97.0
97	12	McKenzie Bowman	Harbor Springs	97.2
98	9	Claire Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	97.3
99	12	Emily Howell	Bridgman	97.5
100	10	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley	101.8