2024 Division 2 Finals Projections

The creative writing juices tapped out after months of writing, this is titled projections instead of preview. Previous iterations of these have had me writing until the wee hours of the night. I want to be my happy self on Saturday, so I’m gonna rely on the narratives written throughout the season and a few paragraphs here.

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest projected score to highest projected score
Projected Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top 10 % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

BOYS TEAM

Place significant goals out in the world, work to nail those goals, then reap the consequences. Allendale’s Falcons made it be known that they were shooting for six under 16:00. Their grind apparent, posted for the state to see. Here in 2024, Allendale has brought forth five kids that’ve shot into the 15’s, a sixth extremely close behind. That formula will win in most divisions and has been dominant in D2, where the Falcons have won at Spartan and Portage with considerable margins.

Grand Rapids Christian looks to be the favorite to grab the runner-up trophy and other podium spot. The Eagles are a consistent D2 presence and this year is no different, the baby blue kids placing 2^nd at Portage with five under 16:40. They’re joined by a few other West Side schools such as Holland Christian and Forest Hills Eastern, along with a young Alma team.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Allendale	105	1st-2nd	95+	95+	95+
2	Grand Rapids Christian	174	2nd-4th		77	95+
3	Holland Christian	207	2nd-6th		11	95+
4	Alma	211	2nd-7th		6	95+
5	Forest Hills Eastern	216	2nd-7th		5	95+
6	East Grand Rapids	226	3rd-7th			95+
7	Frankenmuth	261	5th-10th			95+
8	Marshall	284	7th-11th			95+
9	Otsego	301	7th-13th			75
10	Shepherd	313	8th-13th			75
11	Gladwin	335	8th-13th			21
12	Cedar Springs	350	9th-16th			16
13	Freeland	374	10th-19th			6
14	Pinckney	377	9th-20th			8
15	DeWitt	390	11th-19th
16	GR Catholic Central	392	13th-19th
17	Three Rivers	398	12th-20th
18	New Boston Huron	405	13th-19th
19	Fremont	409	12th-20th
20	Parma Western	477	19th-22nd
21	Adrian	518	20th-24th
22	Detroit Country Day	521	20th-25th
23	Chelsea	524	20th-25th
24	Dearborn Divine Child	551	21st-26th
25	Macomb Lutheran North	564	23rd-26th
26	Yale	630	26th-27th
27	St. Clair	641	25th-27th

GIRLS TEAM

The Martians entered the year as the favorite. They’ve had some hiccups along the way, sickness, poor races on the wrong occasion. But just as last year, they’ve found their best material late in the year. Late September at Bluejay is when the Blue n’ Yellow began to turn a new leaf. Five under 19:40, the girls were able to go against D1’s best and win. At Greater Flint and Region 15, depth came through in even more droves, each featuring all seven girls under 20-flat.

Coming into the season, the Chix from Zeeland East were not projected as highly. Projections miss one thing – work in the offseason, and it’s readily apparent that these girls sacrificed all summer. Their junior depth has all dropped considerable time from 2023 and Emma Drnek is reliable as they come. Mix in a freshman that’s been dropping time at every opportunity and you’ve got a team that wins in elite fields such as Portage.

The two teams employ differing methods in their victories. Goodrich relies more on depth and the ability for anyone to step up, Zeeland East is stronger up front.

If there is a chance at a podium upset, the patient DeWitt and the defending champs, Grand Rapids Christian will happily take it.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Goodrich	131	1st-3rd	52	95+	95+
2	Zeeland East	132	1st-4th	46	91	95+
3	Grand Rapids Christian	178	2nd-5th		5	95+
4	DeWitt	196	2nd-6th		7	95+
5	Holland Christian	204	3rd-6th			95+
6	Otsego	219	3rd-7th			95+
7	East Grand Rapids	280	6th-10th			95+
8	Adrian	283	6th-9th			95+
9	Freeland	299	7th-11th			94
10	Hudsonville Unity Christian	325	8th-12th			51
11	Ludington	334	7th-14th			38
12	Spring Lake	356	10th-14th			8
13	Cadillac	379	7th-16th			10
14	GR South Christian	406	12th-18th
15	Frankenmuth	419	12th-19th
16	Sturgis	433	13th-18th
17	Ann Arbor Fr Gabriel Richard	465	15th-21st
18	St. Johns	472	15th-24th
19	Pinckney	474	15th-22nd
20	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	509	17th-25th
21	St. Joseph	511	17th-25th
22	Williamston	515	17th-25th
23	Dearborn Divine Child	516	17th-25th
24	Carleton Airport	522	17th-26th
25	Chelsea	563	22nd-27th
26	Macomb Lutheran North	612	25th-28th
27	Croswell-Lexington	633	26th-28th
28	St. Clair	654	25th-28th

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

The lone returning champion. Last fall, TJ Hansen used a dastardly strong final 1.1 miles (10 seconds faster over that stretch than anyone, all day) to open up a large gap on his D2 competition. Throughout his career, both in Michigan and on the national scene, he’s employed those tactics. Just as great defense and pitching travel well, so does even pacing on the biggest stages.

In Division 1’s 2023 title race, we saw a first – sub-15 NOT winning. It’s a very real possibility that could happen again, as Jack Bidwell has shown the ability to challenge 9-flat on the track and bust through into the 14’s on the cross course. The recent Michigan commit has a 14:56 on his resume, and perhaps even more impressive, a 15:28 on a hot day at Spartan.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	TJ Hansen	Freeland	1.1
2	12	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	2.7
3	12	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	3.9
4	12	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	4.9
5	11	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	8.7
6	12	Jeb Hillary	GR Catholic Central	9.4
7	12	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	10.6
8	11	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	10.6
9	12	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	12.0
10	12	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	12.2
11	12	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	13.5
12	10	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	14.5
13	12	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	16.1
14	11	Moises Salazar	Adrian	16.1
15	11	Thomas Larson	Alma	17.8
16	11	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	19.0
17	11	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	19.3
18	9	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	19.9
19	11	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	20.3
20	10	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	22.7
21	12	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	23.0
22	10	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	23.0
23	12	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	23.9
24	12	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	24.2
25	12	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	25.5
26	12	Ben Gross	Allendale	27.4
27	12	Lucas Kuhn	New Boston Huron	27.8
28	12	Seth Mead	Gladwin	28.2
29	12	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	28.6
30	10	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	33.6
31	10	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	33.7
32	12	Alex Doneth	Mason	34.1
33	12	Jacob Draaisma	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	35.0
34	11	Owen Metzger	Sparta	36.0
35	10	Mitchell Dunlap	GR Catholic Central	39.2
36	12	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	41.4
37	10	Mason Hill	Allendale	42.1
38	12	Vincent Pollock	Fruitport	42.4
39	12	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	42.6
40	12	Andrew Commeret	Comstock Park	43.1
41	11	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	44.5
42	11	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian	44.9
43	12	Reece Davis	Marshall	45.7
44	11	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	46.2
45	9	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	47.6
46	10	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	48.0
47	12	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	49.7
48	11	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	50.0
49	11	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	52.5
50	12	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	52.9
51	9	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	54.8
52	11	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	55.3
53	12	Will Whitmore	Holland Christian	55.6
54	11	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding	57.9
55	12	Carter Sherman	Fremont	59.3
56	12	Holten Mulherin	Otsego	60.9
57	10	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	62.1
58	12	Justin Bradford	Sparta	63.0
59	12	Noah Hernandez	Hamilton	64.0
60	12	Simon Erfourth	Owosso	64.2
61	11	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	64.3
62	10	Nicklas Parker	Frankenmuth	64.8
63	12	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	65.0
64	12	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	66.9
65	10	Ryan Good	Parma Western	67.8
66	12	Hayden Gould	Big Rapids	68.1
67	11	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	68.1
68	11	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian	69.8
69	12	Brandon Simmons	Hastings	70.4
70	12	Caden Guffey	Zeeland East	70.9
71	12	Zachary Newman	Pinckney	71.6
72	11	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	71.8
73	12	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	72.7
74	12	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	74.0
75	11	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian	76.5
76	12	Conner McCormick	Mason	79.1
77	11	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	80.3
78	12	Bobby Donley	Corunna	81.3
79	12	Ethan Sellers	Flint Kearsley	81.9
80	10	Seth Betzold	Essexville Garber	82.8
81	11	Ben Verellen	Gladwin	83.3
82	11	Asher Jager	GR West Mich. Aviation	83.5
83	11	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	84.6
84	11	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	85.2
85	12	Nolan Park	Sturgis	86.5
86	11	Shephard Bower	Forest Hills Eastern	88.8
87	12	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth	90.8
88	11	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	91.4
89	12	Jackson Walthorn	DeWitt	91.5
90	12	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	91.8
91	11	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	91.9
92	9	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	93.0
93	10	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	93.4
94	12	Aidan Brinks	Holland Christian	96.2
95	10	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	96.5
96	11	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	96.5
97	12	Peyton Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	98.4
98	12	Isaak Brook	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	98.4
99	12	Tyler Endres	Forest Hills Eastern	98.7
100	12	Sam Downing	Zeeland East	99.2

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Coming out of the gates on fire and with a purpose was Emma Hoffman. The Otsego Bulldog, already well accomplished in her career (2^nd here in 2022), wanted more. Having embraced an uptick in training and intensity, she found herself in uncharted waters early in the year. Busting rust early, she was able to slip under 18:00. When time came to run fast, that was overwhelmingly accomplished, as she now sports a personal best of 17:22. And all throughout have been wins – Spartan, Otsego Bulldog, Region 13.

I’ve written this a thousand times, I’d only do that if it were true, Ava Schafer races beyond her years. In last year’s Finals, she moved up from 10^th at the mile to 6^th at two, eventually crossing the line in 4^th. The same strategy was applied in track’s 3200m Final, as Ava hung back the first few laps before winning the D2 title. She too has won all year – Greater Lansing, CAAC Red, Region 14.

Each are unbeaten on the year and have experience in races of this magnitude.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	1.3
2	10	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.9
3	11	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	3.5
4	12	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	3.7
5	12	Courtney Bovair	Carleton Airport	5.7
6	10	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	6.9
7	11	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	10.9
8	11	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	12.1
9	10	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	13.3
10	9	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East	14.1
11	11	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	14.7
12	12	Ayla Holben	DeWitt	15.3
13	12	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	15.8
14	11	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	17.3
15	10	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	17.8
16	12	Grace Evanoff	Flint Powers Catholic	18.7
17	10	Mia May	Sparta	19.7
18	10	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	20.7
19	9	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	22.1
20	10	Johanna Mulder	Holland	22.3
21	12	Mea D’Agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	22.6
22	10	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	23.0
23	10	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	23.2
24	10	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	24.6
25	11	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	25.5
26	12	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	26.2
27	9	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	26.6
28	11	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	27.3
29	11	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	28.8
30	12	Mia Williams	DeWitt	29.1
31	12	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	31.8
32	10	Addison Josephson	Linden	34.4
33	12	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	36.6
34	9	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	36.7
35	12	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	38.8
36	12	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	38.9
37	12	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	40.8
38	11	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	41.0
39	12	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	41.4
40	9	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	42.8
41	12	Joy Evans	Alma	44.8
42	9	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	44.8
43	10	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	45.0
44	10	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	46.5
45	9	Danica Redes	Shepherd	50.1
46	10	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	51.0
47	9	Madison Petty	Adrian	51.4
48	12	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	51.9
49	11	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian	52.7
50	10	Claire Brown	Goodrich	56.5
51	11	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	56.7
52	11	Linnea Paige	Fremont	56.9
53	12	Karie Keefer	Freeland	58.0
54	10	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	58.1
55	10	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	60.4
56	12	Abby Robinson	Gladwin	62.6
57	12	Madalynn Karsies	Pinckney	64.0
58	11	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	65.2
59	10	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	65.4
60	10	Caroline Randall	Hastings	67.2
61	11	Chloe Rinzema	GR South Christian	67.2
62	12	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	68.6
63	11	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	69.1
64	11	Amerie Wilson	Milan	70.0
65	10	Olivia Hollebeek	Holland Christian	70.0
66	11	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	72.0
67	11	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	73.8
68	12	Sierra Grooters	Hudsonville Unity Christian	74.5
69	9	Kaleigh Clark	Spring Lake	74.5
70	11	Samantha Brown	Clio	75.6
71	11	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	75.8
72	11	Layla Geurink	Holland Christian	76.3
73	10	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	77.2
74	12	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	78.0
75	9	Tiffany DeMaagd	GR South Christian	78.6
76	11	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	81.2
77	12	Marisa Chuey	Trenton	81.3
78	11	Evelyn Kuhn	Ann Arbor Fr Gabriel Richard	82.8
79	11	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	83.5
80	12	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	83.8
81	10	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Fr Gabriel Richard	84.4
82	10	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	84.8
83	12	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	86.2
84	9	Lexi Gibson	Holland	87.0
85	12	Grace Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	87.8
86	12	Nell Stover	Detroit Country Day	88.0
87	10	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	90.6
88	10	Monica Lynn	Ann Arbor Fr Gabriel Richard	91.9
89	11	Jada Prescott	Freeland	93.0
90	9	Aurora Doepker	DeWitt	93.2
91	10	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	94.3
92	10	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	94.4
93	12	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	94.4
94	11	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	94.8
95	11	Julia Faber	Battle Creek Harper Creek	95.1
96	11	Madelyn Baar	East Grand Rapids	95.9
97	10	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	99.0
98	9	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	99.3
99	9	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	99.3
100	11	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	102.3