2024 Division 3 Finals Projections

The creative writing juices tapped out after months of writing, this is titled projections instead of preview. Previous iterations of these have had me writing until the wee hours of the night. I want to be my happy self on Saturday, so I’m gonna rely on the narratives written throughout the season and a few paragraphs here.

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest projected score to highest projected score
Projected Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top 10 % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

BOYS TEAM

Returning from a 2023 Championship is Traverse City St. Francis. Repeating is a tough task for professionals. The complacency, added pressure, and being the hunted team all factors in denying the repeat. The evidence from this year is that the Glads are tougher than professionals. They have the ability to put all seven runners in the 16’s or faster. In meets such as Veterans Serving Veterans and Northern Michigan Meet of Champions, they’ve succeeded against bigger schools.

But one can look to Portage as a crack in their armor. Jackson Lumen Christi came into the year with two frontrunners, then three who would need to see improvement in order to contend. Gibson Shore and Rocky Bolton have considerably cut into the gap behind those top-two, Avery Morrow has been a steady (valuable trait!) 5^th runner. In early October, the Titans halved the Glad score through three, then had enough from depth to win the battle of D3 contenders.

These two are your podium contenders, then you have around 12 other teams that’ll be in the mix for the top-10.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	98	1st-2nd	90	95+	95+
2	Jackson Lumen Christi	142	1st-3rd	10	95+	95+
3	Ithaca	203	3rd-6th			95+
4	Saugatuck	241	3rd-8th			95+
5	Pewamo-Westphalia	250	3rd-8th			95+
6	Charlevoix	254	2nd-10th			95+
7	Stanton Central Montcalm	283	4th-10th			95+
8	Hanover-Horton	286	3rd-13th			81
9	GR Covenant Christian	295	5th-12th			92
10	Lansing Catholic	321	6th-14th			54
11	Flat Rock	330	9th-14th			35
12	Buchanan	356	8th-17th			20
13	Jonesville	370	10th-16th			8
14	Benzie Central	383	9th-19th			11
15	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	384	12th-17th
16	Reed City	425	14th-20th
17	Union City	441	14th-23rd
18	Hart	447	14th-22nd
19	Bath	456	16th-23rd
20	Holland Black River	460	15th-24th
21	St. Louis	480	18th-24th
22	Leslie	496	17th-26th
23	Brooklyn Columbia Central	534	18th-28th
24	Erie Mason	540	19th-27th
25	Sanford-Meridian	543	21st-27th
26	Pigeon-Laker	567	19th-28th
27	Ann Arbor Greenhills	596	23rd-28th
28	Clare	627	26th-29th
29	Clinton	702	28th-29th

GIRLS TEAM

Kind of unheralded by the coaches, Lansing Catholic has held onto the top spot all year on here. For good reason, the Cougars have some of the best depth in the state. Perhaps the greatest example of that was a state preview of sorts at Greater Lansing, where despite missing their 2^nd/3^rd girl, the Cougs placed all five under 20:35. Fully healthy at a quick Algonac Regional, LC placed five girls in the top-seven, all under 20:15.

In all divisions, this is the 2^nd lowest odds for a projected winner, with many other teams looking to spoil. Pewamo-Westphalia won at Portage, which had the highest concentration of D3 contenders. Stanton Central Montcalm has perhaps the best top-three in the state. Traverse City St. Francis has stepped on the podium in four of the past nine years. And Benzie Central is ascending quickly, thanks to the wowing improvement of their youngsters.

As with the boys, there are many other teams that can pull off a top-10 placing, the projections show ~13 that are capable of the feat.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Lansing Catholic	137	1st-3rd	78	94	95+
2	Traverse City St. Francis	162	1st-5th	4	30	95+
3	Pewamo-Westphalia	162	1st-5th	8	46	95+
4	Stanton Central Montcalm	175	1st-6th	6	20	95+
5	Benzie Central	196	1st-7th	4	10	95+
6	Jackson Lumen Christi	217	4th-8th			95+
7	Ithaca	236	5th-9th			95+
8	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	282	7th-12th			84
9	Leslie	287	7th-12th			73
10	Hart	290	7th-14th			71
11	GR Covenant Christian	318	9th-13th			33
12	Blissfield	322	8th-15th			22
13	McBain	336	8th-15th			14
14	Saugatuck	372	12th-16th
15	Clare	376	12th-16th
16	Onsted	449	14th-22nd
17	Grandville Calvin Christian	455	15th-22nd
18	Union City	460	15th-22nd
19	Grass Lake	460	16th-22nd
20	Buchanan	487	16th-24th
21	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	496	16th-26th
22	Laingsburg	503	17th-26th
23	Monroe St. Mary CC	523	20th-25th
24	Sanford-Meridian	541	19th-27th
25	Boyne City	563	23rd-27th
26	Jonesville	570	22nd-27th
27	Almont	623	25th-27th

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Probably a three person race, with a fourth looking to slash through any carnage. Last year, throwing down an incredible kick to finish 2^nd, we learned that Gus Rohde has the makeup of a champion. Biding his time through much of the season, he’s brought his best material toward the end. Two tough courses at Chris Grabowski and Chippewa Hills saw performances indicative of greatness, a 14:58 at Benzie confirmed it.

Mitchell Hiatt has been performing at a high level all year, breaking 16:00 on countless occasions. Just as Rohde last year, we were witness to the fact that he’s unafraid of the moment, sticking his nose in the D3 race before finishing in 6^th. Juuust on the cusp of a sub-16 last year, Gage Hoffman affirmatively dropped a 15:40 to begin the year. He’s displayed that form throughout the year, the largest example being a 15:41 at Portage for the win.

With those three at the forefront and pressing, I wouldn’t be shocked if Landen Styka is there to pick up any bodies falling back. He’s placed in the top-three at every single race this year, hitting the 15:40’s in two large meets at Shepherd.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	August Rohde	Reed City	2.0
2	12	Mitchell Hiatt	Onsted	3.3
3	11	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.6
4	11	Landen Styka	Ithaca	4.4
5	12	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.8
6	12	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	8.9
7	12	Levi Kamps	GR Covenant Christian	9.7
8	11	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	10.5
9	12	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	10.8
10	12	Leo Swager	Jackson Lumen Christi	12.1
11	12	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	12.4
12	12	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca	12.6
13	10	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	12.7
14	12	Landen Boulis	Hanover-Horton	13.0
15	10	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	13.0
16	10	William Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	14.4
17	12	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian	20.4
18	12	Nathan Vargo	Flat Rock	21.5
19	11	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	22.0
20	12	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	22.4
21	10	Luke Herron	Caro	23.7
22	11	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	24.3
23	11	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	25.3
24	9	Owen Poppema	Bath	26.2
25	11	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	26.9
26	9	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	27.3
27	12	Owen Read	Traverse City St. Francis	27.8
28	12	Robby Myler	Traverse City St. Francis	29.4
29	10	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	30.0
30	9	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC	31.3
31	11	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	32.0
32	10	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	32.1
33	11	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	32.2
34	11	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	35.7
35	11	Ben Gautsche	Union City	37.3
36	11	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic	38.8
37	10	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	40.3
38	10	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	41.4
39	11	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison	42.5
40	12	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	44.4
41	11	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	44.7
42	11	Edward Mugisha	Wyoming Potter’s House	44.7
43	10	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	45.7
44	10	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	46.5
45	12	Joseph Carlson	Traverse City St. Francis	47.7
46	12	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek	48.6
47	11	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	52.4
48	12	Austin Sulier	Erie Mason	55.3
49	9	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck	56.1
50	11	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm	58.1
51	10	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	59.3
52	11	Jackson Schaub	Benzie Central	60.1
53	12	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	61.7
54	11	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca	62.0
55	11	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	62.1
56	11	John Edler	Homer	62.6
57	10	Micah Kuiper	GR Covenant Christian	62.8
58	10	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	62.9
59	10	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	63.1
60	10	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	63.8
61	12	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	65.5
62	12	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	66.2
63	10	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	66.8
64	10	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	69.1
65	12	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	69.6
66	11	Julian Walker	Algonac	70.9
67	10	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	70.9
68	10	David Castrejon	Newaygo	71.1
69	10	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	73.3
70	12	Ian Waddell	Blissfield	75.5
71	10	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	75.8
72	9	Eli Vanpoortfliet	Benzie Central	75.8
73	10	William Gancer	Stockbridge	76.1
74	10	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	76.3
75	11	Caiden Helsel	Lake City	77.9
76	12	Jason Shoop	Union City	79.6
77	11	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	80.9
78	11	Noah Raeth	Montague	81.9
79	9	Silas Ackley	Hart	82.2
80	12	Gabe Manchester	Clinton	83.0
81	9	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic	83.7
82	12	James Bayes	Onsted	85.6
83	11	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	86.6
84	9	Wyatt Roberts	Otisville LakeVille	88.3
85	10	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca	89.9
86	12	Luke Dykstra	GR Covenant Christian	90.9
87	10	Connor Schmidt	Clare	92.5
88	9	Nolan Kessler	Montague	92.7
89	10	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	93.5
90	12	Colin Kuhn	St. Louis	94.4
91	12	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	94.9
92	10	John Keser	Buchanan	96.2
93	11	Paul Saladin	Reed City	96.4
94	9	Johnny Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	97.5
95	12	Tyler N. Kooienga	GR Covenant Christian	97.6
96	9	Tate Smith	Bath	103.0
97	11	Alessandro Avila	Constantine	103.6
98	12	Jacob Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	103.7
99	11	Zach Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	104.9
100	10	River Fox	Bath	105.4

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Two seniors have separated themselves here in D3, Kyah Hoffman and Emmry Ross. Every year, Hoffman gets quicker as the season wears on, this iteration no different. She’s run in the 17’s on many occasions, but none as expediently as her 17:25 at the Northern Michigan Meet of Champions. With the onslaught of Onsted races, Ross has been a bit more judicious in her efforts to go all-out. Still, five sub-18 efforts and a winning streak dating back to mid-September comprise her portfolio. We have one race of evidence between the two, a three second difference at Spartan, Emmry’s 18:19 to Kyah’s 18:22.

This race will also be a celebration of a squad of D3 seniors that have had their names all over the scene for years now. Grace VanderKooi, Lila Volkers, Betsy Skendzel, Whitney Werner, and Eliza Bush all have numerous All-States to their names. With that heavy concentration of graduating girls, perhaps we’ll get a preview of 2025’s contenders.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.6
2	12	Emmry Ross	Onsted	2.8
3	12	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	4.8
4	12	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.1
5	12	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	5.3
6	12	Grace Vanderkooi	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	5.9
7	12	Lila Volkers	Kent City	7.1
8	10	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	8.3
9	10	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.8
10	12	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	10.6
11	10	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	11.0
12	11	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	11.0
13	11	Hope Miller	Blissfield	13.0
14	9	Elliana Max	Kent City	14.3
15	11	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	17.6
16	10	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	18.7
17	10	Shelby Kuiper	GR Covenant Christian	18.8
18	9	Caelyn Torry	McBain	18.9
19	9	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	19.9
20	12	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	20.6
21	11	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	20.7
22	12	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	22.3
23	9	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	23.4
24	10	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	23.9
25	12	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	24.8
26	12	Kaya Vrable	Caro	30.0
27	12	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	31.5
28	9	Madisyn Wanstead	LeRoy Pine River	32.0
29	9	Khloe Lehnst	Ithaca	33.5
30	10	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	33.9
31	10	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	34.2
32	10	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	35.3
33	12	Skyler Fraley	Union City	35.7
34	11	Abigail Reis	Millington	36.8
35	11	Anna Poppema	Bath	36.9
36	11	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	38.5
37	9	Madison Wils	Bath	38.9
38	9	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic	42.4
39	12	Megan Gottschall	Lake City	44.0
40	12	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	44.3
41	10	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	45.6
42	11	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	46.1
43	9	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	46.5
44	10	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo	46.6
45	12	Madeline Young	Buchanan	46.7
46	12	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	47.7
47	11	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	47.8
48	10	Natalie Rosema	Hart	48.1
49	9	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	49.3
50	9	Addison Gregg	Ann Arbor Greenhills	52.6
51	10	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	53.2
52	9	Adelyn Thelen	Pewamo-Westphalia	54.8
53	9	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	55.8
54	12	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	56.4
55	11	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck	58.5
56	9	Avalynne Allee	LeRoy Pine River	58.8
57	12	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	61.8
58	11	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	62.1
59	10	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	64.2
60	12	Nevia Chimonas	Benzie Central	64.4
61	12	Hannah Geaney	Wyoming Potter’s House	64.8
62	11	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	65.5
63	11	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	65.6
64	9	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	65.8
65	12	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock	68.2
66	12	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	68.2
67	9	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake	68.9
68	10	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic	69.4
69	10	Nico Triebold	Grayling	74.5
70	9	Alaina Schaner	Hart	74.7
71	11	Emily Peters	Olivet	75.5
72	12	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	75.7
73	10	Allison Gautsche	Union City	76.0
74	9	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	76.1
75	10	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	76.8
76	10	Pyper Braun	EPBP Laker	77.0
77	12	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	77.1
78	9	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	82.3
79	10	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	83.2
80	11	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	83.9
81	10	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	85.4
82	9	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	86.5
83	12	Abby Dice	St. Louis	87.6
84	12	Thia Tello	Jackson Lumen Christi	88.3
85	12	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	88.7
86	10	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	88.8
87	9	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie	91.3
88	9	Lilly Whaley	Benzie Central	92.8
89	12	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	95.3
90	10	Lydia Minderhoud	GR Covenant Christian	96.5
91	9	Ellason Foster	Newaygo	96.9
92	11	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	97.8
93	10	Marnath Tuol	Grandville Calvin Christian	100.0
94	9	Isabelle Strand	Ithaca	100.8
95	9	Hailee Bertels	Boyne City	101.4
96	10	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	101.6
97	11	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	102.6
98	11	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy	103.0
99	12	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	103.7
100	9	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	103.9