2024 Division 1 Finals Projections

The creative writing juices tapped out after months of writing, this is titled projections instead of preview. Previous iterations of these have had me writing until the wee hours of the night. I want to be my happy self on Saturday, so I’m gonna rely on the narratives written throughout the season and a few paragraphs here.

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest projected score to highest projected score
Projected Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top 10 % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

BOYS TEAM

Now three years runnin’, the class of Michigan. Northville, never complacent with their stature, looking to make it to a three-peat. The past formula has been overwhelming depth and that’s the case yet again. Throughout this 2024 season, the Mustangs have found five guys with sub-16’s to their name, the 6^th and 7^th are close behind. This speed has led to scenarios such as Spartan, where Northville placed all scorers in the top-20 and Portage, with all five in the top-30. Both were victories, but the Portage margin was a bit smaller.

Thanks to a Jenison team that wants to claim a podium spot. Seth Conner is a true low-stick and the Wildcats have three others in the sub-16 range or faster. Brighton didn’t have quite as great of a day in early October, though the Bulldogs made up for it in the KLAA Championships. The usually tough Bennett Park course ran a little fast and Brighton was able to take advantage, throwing across four guys quicker than 16:15.

The typical Mustang strategy is to sit and let the race come to them, then pounce in the final mile. Expect some tense live result viewing.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Northville	69	1st-2nd	95+	95+	95+
2	Jenison	181	2nd-4th		51	95+
3	Brighton	186	2nd-5th		48	95+
4	Livonia Churchill	246	3rd-8th			95+
5	Kalamazoo Central	252	3rd-10th			95+
6	Grand Haven	260	3rd-9th			95+
7	Saline	265	4th-9th			95+
8	Clarkston	276	4th-11th			95+
9	Plymouth	309	6th-14th			69
10	Ann Arbor Pioneer	338	9th-15th			30
11	East Kentwood	343	8th-17th			25
12	Forest Hills Central	344	9th-17th			27
13	Oxford	346	8th-18th			18
14	Traverse City Central	349	8th-18th			21
15	Okemos	377	9th-20th			5
16	Highland-Milford	378	9th-19th			10
17	Utica	382	11th-19th
18	White Lake Lakeland	386	11th-20th
19	Midland	442	17th-24th
20	Macomb Dakota	443	15th-23rd
21	Rockford	474	19th-25th
22	Dexter	485	17th-26th
23	Lake Orion	488	18th-26th
24	Romeo	523	19th-27th
25	Detroit Catholic Central	562	23rd-27th
26	Temperance Bedford	569	23rd-27th
27	Ann Arbor Skyline	612	25th-27th

GIRLS TEAM

We’re so blessed to be treated with such elite teams. All year, both Romeo and Holland West Ottawa have been ranked in the nation’s top-20.

At last year’s state finals, the Bulldogs were able to place all scorers in the top-50 and under 19-flat. Returning their top-six, coming off a track season with five girls sub-11 in the 3200m, the Bulldogs came into the season as heavy favorites. Their racing schedule planned with great intention; Romeo has pounced on every opportunity to race with vigor. At Jackson, this was six in the top-20. At Portage, this manifested in a 100+ point win. At Macomb County, they were (I believe) the first girls team since ’96 Stevenson to score a perfect 15.

One thing I’ve appreciated is that with all those accolades, Romeo everywhere you turn, West Ottawa is just won’t lay down. Coming off a track state final with Panther prints all over the track, West Ottawa went to work in providing their best challenge. The result of all that work is a crew of 11 girls that have slipped under 20:00 (with 12 riiight there!). A mix of newcomers, development, and a favorite comeback story. Rising tides such as West Ottawa lift all boats.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Romeo	69	1st-2nd	95+	95+	95+
2	Holland West Ottawa	114	1st-3rd		95+	95+
3	Saline	168	3rd-5th			95+
4	Brighton	181	3rd-7th			95+
5	Ann Arbor Pioneer	206	4th-6th			95+
6	Rochester	246	5th-7th			95+
7	Rockford	307	7th-11th			93
8	Traverse City West	317	6th-12th			73
9	Midland Dow	336	7th-15th			54
10	Grand Haven	338	7th-14th			69
11	Okemos	347	7th-16th			48
12	Jenison	361	6th-18th			35
13	Portage Central	375	9th-16th			11
14	Northville	399	10th-19th			9
15	Rochester Adams	403	10th-20th			4
16	Utica	405	10th-18th			4
17	White Lake Lakeland	429	14th-20th
18	Hartland	450	15th-20th
19	Dexter	461	12th-22nd
20	Ann Arbor Skyline	463	17th-21st
21	Ann Arbor Huron	527	19th-24th
22	GR Ottawa Hills	548	20th-26th
23	Farmington	573	21st-27th
24	Fraser	577	21st-27th
25	Forest Hills Northern	578	21st-28th
26	Novi	597	21st-28th
27	Woodhaven Brownstown	627	23rd-29th
28	Clarkston	646	24th-29th
29	Royal Oak	716	28th-29th

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

This D1 race looks to be one of the more intriguing ones of the day. Kyle O’Rourke has headed the rankings all year. He’s gotten it done on a variety of terrains and settings. Wins on his home course early and in championship season. A rare Milford trip to Jackson saw him pull away mid-race from the best in the state, comfortably winning in 15:08.

There will be challengers, those of which he didn’t see at Jackson. Pioneer typically travels west to that superb course, though Kamari Ronfeldt waited a bit later to debut. A little over a week past his debut, Kamari toed the line against Jenison’s Seth Conner. Portage bore witness to a regular season race for the ages, Conner opening up a gap late, Ronfeldt finding just enough real estate to come back for the win.

Given the various, differing strategies of these three (plus a mix of patience and daring front-running from other competitors), this is probably the strategic race of the day.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	2.3
2	10	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.6
3	11	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	4.0
4	12	Seth Conner	Jenison	5.0
5	12	Carter Livermore	Grandville	5.1
6	10	Jack MacGregor	Howell	6.7
7	12	Ethan Powell	Northville	7.6
8	12	Joseph Rohmfeld	Livonia Churchill	10.1
9	11	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	10.5
10	12	Alexander McArthur	Oxford	10.6
11	11	Ben Hartigan	Northville	12.0
12	12	Tyler Brock	Brighton	15.0
13	10	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	16.1
14	12	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	16.1
15	11	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	16.1
16	12	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	21.3
17	12	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	23.3
18	12	James Cusick	Oxford	24.2
19	11	Ian Morgan	Okemos	24.7
20	10	Brandon Cloud	Northville	25.3
21	12	Nick Barretto	Northville	25.4
22	10	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	25.8
23	12	Ishaan Kundapur	Northville	27.9
24	12	Julian Linebaugh	Dexter	28.4
25	11	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	29.3
26	11	Harper Wesley	Utica	29.5
27	10	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	29.9
28	12	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	32.1
29	10	Caden Livermore	Grandville	32.5
30	11	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	34.1
31	12	Chase Wolters	Livonia Churchill	34.5
32	12	Kort Thompson	Caledonia	34.9
33	11	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	35.9
34	12	Mason Lucas	Jenison	38.7
35	12	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston	39.0
36	12	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	41.7
37	11	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	41.9
38	12	Parker Strelecki	Jenison	42.6
39	12	James Latstetter	Flushing	42.9
40	10	Jacob Szalay	Saline	43.7
41	12	Luke Morehouse	Utica	46.0
42	12	Mitchell Jeruzal	Byron Center	46.8
43	12	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	47.0
44	12	Lucas Wood	Howell	48.6
45	11	Nate Linden	Troy Athens	49.0
46	11	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth	49.3
47	12	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	52.4
48	12	Spencer Parker	Portage Central	52.9
49	11	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	53.3
50	12	Matthew Schwartz	Jenison	53.8
51	11	Brennan LaRusso	Saline	55.1
52	12	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	55.7
53	9	Gavin Katic	Fenton	57.0
54	12	Jacob Essenmacher	Lapeer	57.1
55	12	Malcolm Speigle	Livonia Churchill	57.5
56	12	Tyler Outlaw	Brighton	58.9
57	12	Drew Abbott	Detroit Catholic Central	59.3
58	11	Zach Wyderko	Brighton	59.7
59	12	Brady Millington	Brighton	62.2
60	11	Ethan Hertza	Northville	63.0
61	10	Blake Kulesza	Brighton	63.2
62	12	Ben Mussen	Plymouth	65.3
63	10	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood	67.3
64	11	Max Houvener	Lake Orion	67.6
65	11	Steven Dusseau	Canton	72.5
66	12	Jaxson Nowik	Clarkston	72.8
67	11	Pierce Scheffler	Woodhaven Brownstown	74.2
68	12	Collin McLaughlin	Rochester	74.3
69	12	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	76.0
70	9	Alexander Allen	Alpena	76.2
71	12	Noah Schuette	Rockford	77.1
72	12	Saman Meshinchi	Saline	77.1
73	11	Owen Fisher	Mattawan	78.1
74	12	Blake Peardon	Lake Orion	80.6
75	11	David Dubeck	Clarkston	80.8
76	12	Maxton Myrand	Oxford	80.9
77	11	Evan Owczarek	Rochester	81.4
78	12	Caleb Snyder	Dexter	82.7
79	12	Ian Boss	Traverse City Central	82.8
80	11	Jack Steen	Traverse City Central	83.3
81	11	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth	83.4
82	12	Walker Brose	Ann Arbor Huron	84.5
83	11	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester	85.0
84	11	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland	85.3
85	11	Nicolas Morales-Sanchez	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	86.8
86	11	Theo Sacks-Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer	86.9
87	11	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	87.4
88	12	Gavin Frandle	Utica	91.8
89	9	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson	91.9
90	11	Andrew Worsley	Midland	92.3
91	10	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	94.2
92	12	Logan Gehoski	Bay City Western	95.1
93	11	Bastien Beaubien	Highland-Milford	97.5
94	12	Collin Eckermann	Saline	97.6
95	11	James Brickel	Romeo	98.0
96	11	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	98.7
97	12	Matthew Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	99.9
98	10	Cameron Cochran	Midland	100.7
99	10	Musa Kay	West Bloomfield	102.8
100	11	Dane Hieronimus	Temperance Bedford	104.1

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

The boys race has intrigue from many angles, this girls race is the climactic capper, the elite race of the day. Helen Sachs and Victoria Garces.

As the rest of us were wiping our eyes, getting acquainted with the new season, Helen was ripping the bandage off and shooting to a sub-17. Her Under the Lights performance was a precursor to a season full of wins. Every race – OK Red, down in Indiana, Otsego Bulldog, Portage. Typically quick too, sub-17’s on three occasions.

Victoria Garces was a bit more judicious in her scheduling, though very aggressive in her racing. Just as Sachs, she wasted no time in getting up to speed, winning in Cadillac in 17:17. She too is unbeaten with sub-17’s to her name. Two of ‘em, both very recently.

The two haven’t locked heads on the cross course, but we can look back to track to see how they might compare. In early June’s D1 State Final, Garces finished just ahead of Sachs in both the 1600m and 3200m. You have to take that in the context of the day, as Sachs already had a strenuous 800m in her legs. These two will be extremely close and this race will be a great way to end our 2024 season.

I can’t hardly wait.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	1.4
2	12	Victoria Garces	Midland Dow	1.8
3	9	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.5
4	12	Lucy Cook	Rochester	6.2
5	9	Rachel Smith	Okemos	6.3
6	11	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	7.0
7	9	Emilia Garces	Midland Dow	8.1
8	10	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	10.4
9	10	Daisy Cox	Rockford	10.7
10	11	Hana Boggess	Ann Arbor Pioneer	11.3
11	9	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	13.0
12	9	McKinley Jones	Saline	13.9
13	12	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	14.0
14	11	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	15.8
15	12	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	15.8
16	11	Ella Abraham	Rochester	16.1
17	12	Annie Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	16.2
18	12	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	17.3
19	12	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	21.8
20	12	Grace Tykocki	Grand Blanc	22.0
21	12	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	22.9
22	9	Savannah Staton	Saline	24.4
23	9	Avery Scott	Portage Central	24.9
24	12	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	25.0
25	12	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	25.4
26	10	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	27.9
27	12	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	28.9
28	11	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	30.7
29	11	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	31.0
30	10	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	32.1
31	10	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	33.3
32	12	Elle Bissett	Brighton	34.4
33	12	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	35.2
34	11	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	35.6
35	9	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline	36.3
36	11	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	42.0
37	12	Lucinda Paliani	Ann Arbor Huron	42.2
38	12	Corynn Gady	Saline	42.7
39	11	October Harns	Okemos	42.8
40	12	Chloe DeRidder	Grandville	44.0
41	10	Katelynn Egli	Novi	44.1
42	10	Colette Lozo	Northville	44.8
43	9	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern	45.0
45	12	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	47.1
44	10	El McMahan	Rochester Adams	47.1
46	11	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	47.4
47	10	Paige McMeans	Jenison	49.6
48	11	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	50.3
49	11	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	52.0
50	10	Ava Goodman	Hartland	52.2
51	9	Gracie Carlisle	Portage Central	55.4
52	11	Gracelin Martin	Greenville	56.1
53	12	Addy Smith	Grand Haven	56.8
54	11	Ella Goodsell	Romeo	59.8
55	12	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	62.2
56	9	Charley McKay	Woodhaven Brownstown	62.7
57	11	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	63.9
58	12	Cassie Garcia	Northville	64.4
59	9	Ella Lorenz	Brighton	65.2
60	11	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill	66.4
61	12	Grace Grupido	Fraser	66.5
62	10	Katarina Munson	Saline	69.3
63	10	Jaclyn Suderman	Bay City Western	69.7
64	11	Brooke McFarland	Utica	70.3
65	10	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	70.5
66	11	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	72.1
67	11	Mackenzie Dicken	Plymouth	72.6
69	9	Emma McLaughlin	Midland	74.7
68	11	Lillian (Lilli) Schlack	Saline	74.7
70	12	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	75.8
71	9	Mary Dolbow	Holland West Ottawa	75.9
72	11	Courtney Lince	Brighton	76.9
73	12	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	77.1
74	11	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	77.5
75	11	Nevaeh Polovina	Davison	78.0
76	12	Catherine Steele	Farmington	79.7
77	12	Natalie Lewis	Rockford	80.0
78	10	Emma Brown	Utica	82.1
79	10	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion	83.8
80	11	Sophia Nunnery	Hartland	84.6
81	12	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	86.0
82	12	Sydney Roberts	Midland Dow	86.3
83	9	Ava Thomas	Rochester Adams	87.1
84	11	Taylor Parsons	Rochester	88.5
85	12	Kaitlyn Kauppila	Rochester Adams	89.1
86	10	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville	91.0
87	11	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	91.0
88	11	Elliana Neuer	Hartland	91.7
89	11	Willa Prinsen	Forest Hills Northern	92.8
90	10	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	93.7
91	12	Ella Reaves	Holt	94.7
92	9	Charlotte Jones	Rochester	96.3
93	9	Jillian Lewakowski	Rockford	98.2
94	9	Maddy Aleisa	Jenison	99.0
95	9	Ariana Rajah	Traverse City Central	99.8
96	10	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer	100.3
97	11	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	100.5
98	12	Hannah Dupuis	Caledonia	101.9
99	10	Irie Scrase	Ann Arbor Skyline	102.8
100	11	Lilah Yoder	Forest Hills Central	103.6